Wednesday, October 26, 2005

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
- US demand for international stocks this year may be the highest in more than 20 years, based on mutual-fund flows. The growth has led to concern that gains in markets worldwide have peaked.
- Shares of Doral Financial, Puerto Rico’s largest mortgage lender, plunged after the company disclosed late yesterday that the SEC is conducting a formal probe into an earnings restatement.
- CBS News President Andrew Heyward will step down after almost 10 years and will be replaced by CBS Sports chief Sean McManus.

Wall Street Journal:
- Lockheed Martin is part of a group of companies that may make a takeover offer for Computer Sciences.
- EarthLink and SK Telecom, South Korea’s leading wireless provider, plan to start a cell-phone and data service in the US.
- Ford Motor is trying to improve its internal knowledge of gasoline-electric engine technology so it can ensure its ability to produce hybrid engines to compete against Toyota Motor, maker of Prius hybrid cars.
- The Gulf Coast hurricane season, which has left hundreds of thousands of US citizens homeless, means a bonanza for makers of motorized mobile homes.

NY Times:
- There has been a “significant” increase in the number of first-time buyers of commercial real estate in the US as people seek higher return on investment.
- Billionaire investor Wilbur Ross plans to take advantage of cheaper prices to acquire ailing auto-parts businesses and combine them into a stronger company.

Washington Post:
- The US State Department issued final rules for putting electronic identification chips into all US passports.

Boston Globe:
- The median price of a single-family home in Massachusetts fell 4% to $360,000 in September, the first monthly decline since February.

AP:
- Democratic Senator Jon Corzine’s New Jersey gubernatorial campaign ad that features a paralyzed man criticizing Republican Doug Forrester for his views on stem-cell research has drawn negative comments.

Al-Ahram:
- Egypt has started pumping oil from one of three offshore fields in the Gulf of Suez that have reserves of up to 70 million barrels, citing Petroleum Minister Sameh Fahmy.

INA:
- Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad called Israel’s withdrawal from Gaza a “trick” and said the Islamic world would “wipe Israel away.”

Economic Releases

- The EIA just reported that crude oil inventories rose 4.41 million barrels vs. estimates of a 2.0 million barrel rise. Gasoline inventories rose 159,000 barrels vs. estimates of a 1.5 million barrel rise. Distillate supplies fell 1.62 million barrels vs. estimates of a 1.3 million barrel fall.
BOTTOM LINE: The EIA data was moderately bearish for oil, however the commodity is rising slightly on continued speculation that demand is accelerating from Sept. The overall trend in demand is lower and will remain so over the intermediate-term.

Links of Interest

Market Snapshot
Detailed Market Summary
Market Internals
Economic Commentary
Movers & Shakers
IBD New America
NYSE OrderTrac
I-Watch Sector Overview
NYSE Unusual Volume
NASDAQ Unusual Volume
Hot Spots
NASDAQ 100 Heatmap
DJIA Quick Charts
Chart Toppers
Option Dragon
Real-time Intraday Chart/Quote

Wednesday Watch

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Australia’s consumer prices increased less than economists expected in the third quarter as the price of TVs, DVDs, stereos and medicines declined.
- Japan’s exports rose 8.8% to a record in September on higher demand from the US and China.
- Crude oil is falling for a sixth day in seven before a report today that may show US stockpiles increased for a third week on higher imports and weaker demand.

Financial Times:
- Sealed indictments in the CIA leak probe are expected to be filed tomorrow and released later this week.

AFP:
- Laser printers made by Xerox Corp. and other companies produce a secret code that can help the US Secret Service track down currency counterfeiters.

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on GNW and CVS.
- Reiterated Underperform on EW and CR.

Night Trading
Asian Indices are -.50% to +.75% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.22%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.19%.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule

Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
ADP/.35
AHC/3.30
APCC/.28
BUD/.80
BIDU/.06
BOL/.90
BIIB/.42
BA/.80
CAH/.72
COP/2.56
GLW/.21
CSX/.72
DO/.40
DBD/.27
EL/.32
ESRX/.61
KMG/2.64
LLL/1.09
MGM/.41
MNST/.24
NEM/.25
OMX/.29
PFCB/.31
PHM/1.39
RCL/1.47
S/.38
ZMH/.67

Upcoming Splits
- None of note

Economic Releases
10:30 am EST
- Platt's estimates weekly crude inventories rose 2.7 million barrels, gasoline inventories rose 2.3 million barrels, distillate inventories declined 1.1 million barrels and refinery utilization increased 4.0%.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by commodity and technology companies in the region. I expect US equities to open mixed and to rise modestly later in the day. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Tuesday, October 25, 2005

Stocks Rebound into Close, Finishing Slightly Lower

Indices
S&P 500 1,196.54 -.24%
DJIA 10,377.87 -.07%
NASDAQ 2,109.45 -.30%
Russell 2000 642.73 -.60%
DJ Wilshire 5000 11,945.29 -.25%
S&P Barra Growth 574.71 -.32%
S&P Barra Value 617.62 -.15%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 583.50 -.36%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 701.35 -.15%
Morgan Stanley Technology 500.92 -.89%
Transports 3,736.74 +.32%
Utilities 397.41 +.02%
Put/Call .88 +25.71%
NYSE Arms .98 +95.11%
Volatility(VIX) 14.53 -1.42%
ISE Sentiment 197.00 -18.60%
US Dollar 89.29 -.91%
CRB 329.19 +2.44%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 62.24 -.29%
Unleaded Gasoline 165.00 -.23%
Natural Gas 14.35 +.08%
Heating Oil 188.14 -.45%
Gold 474.50 -.04%
Base Metals 133.69 +1.30%
Copper 182.95 +.27%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.53% +1.99%

Leading Sectors
Oil Service +2.95%
Energy +2.26%
Gold & Silver +1.55%

Lagging Sectors
Gaming -1.95%
Airlines -2.23%
HMOs -4.27%

Evening Review
Detailed Market Summary
Market Gauges
Daily ETF Performance
Style Performance
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Economic Calendar
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Movers
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
In Play

Afternoon Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on COH and SEPR.
- Reiterated Underperform on CHTR.

Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- NBC Universal CEO Wright said the NBC television network is “desperate” and rebuilding the schedule will take more than one season.
- Google is testing a service that may let users sell products online, posing a threat to EBay.
- US Treasury notes fell on expectations the Federal Reserve will keep raising interest rates to slow the economy.
- The US Senate will debate an overhaul of US immigration laws early next year, including whether to establish a guest-worker program, Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist.
- Chipotle Mexican Grill, majority-owned by McDonald’s, filed to sell as much as $100 million in stock in an IPO so McDonald’s can focus on its hamburger business.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished slightly lower today on losses in my Retail longs and Energy-related shorts. I exited my IWM and QQQQ shorts and added to a few existing longs in the afternoon, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market was mildly negative today as the advance/decline line finished lower, most sectors declined and volume was about average. Measures of investor anxiety were mostly higher into the close. Overall, today's performance wasn't too bad considering yesterday's gains and the bounce in long-term rates and energy prices. I expect stocks to make another push higher before week's end.

Stocks Lower Mid-day on a Bounce in Energy Prices and Long-term Rates

Indices
S&P 500 1,190.88 -.71%
DJIA 10,332.73 -.50%
NASDAQ 2,097.08 -.88%
Russell 2000 637.56 -1.40%
DJ Wilshire 5000 11,886.40 -.74%
S&P Barra Growth 571.86 -.82%
S&P Barra Value 614.94 -.59%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 581.33 -.73%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 698.61 -.54%
Morgan Stanley Technology 498.77 -1.31%
Transports 3,719.29 -.15%
Utilities 394.11 -.83%
Put/Call .92 +31.43%
NYSE Arms 1.19 +135.76%
Volatility(VIX) 15.18 +3.05%
ISE Sentiment 206.00 -14.88%
US Dollar 89.25 -.95%
CRB 328.02 +2.07%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 62.20 +3.20%
Unleaded Gasoline 164.50 +3.85%
Natural Gas 13.98 +7.51%
Heating Oil 188.75 +5.02%
Gold 474.70 +1.65%
Base Metals 133.69 +1.30%
Copper 182.45 +2.24%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.49% +1.22%

Leading Sectors %
Gold & Silver +2.40%
Oil Service +1.80%
Energy +1.15%

Lagging Sectors
Tobacco -2.64%
Gaming -3.06%
HMOs -5.26%
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is lower mid-day on losses in my Internet longs, Retail longs, Semiconductor longs and Energy-related shorts. I added IWM and QQQQ shorts and increased my OS and SCHN shorts this morning, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. The tone of the market is negative as the advance/decline line is lower, most sectors are falling and volume is slightly below average. Measures of investor anxiety are higher. Today’s overall market action is slightly negative considering the rise in long-term rates and energy prices. The Johnson Redbook same-store sales index rose 3.5% year-over-year last week vs. a 3.5% rise the prior week. This week's gain is up from a 1.5% increase in late April and the 25th week in a row the index has risen 3% or more. This is more evidence that investors should pay more attention to what consumers do than what they say. I continue to expect retail sales to beat lowered expectations this holiday season. I expect US stocks to trade mixed from current levels into the close as bargain-hunting offsets worries over a bounce in energy prices.