Job Market Still Healthy

- Initial Jobless Claims for last week rose to 294K versus estimates of 285K and 279K the prior week.
- Continuing Claims fell to 2486K versus estimates of 2450K and 2488K prior.

BOTTOM LINE: First-time claims for unemployment benefits rose last week, while total jobless rolls dropped to a five-year low, evidence of plentiful jobs that will keep consumers in a mood to spend, Bloomberg reported. The four-week moving average of initial claims rose to 287,250 versus 282,000 the prior week. The unemployment rate for those eligible for benefits, which tracks the unemployment rate, remained at 1.9%. I continue to believe the labor market will remain healthy without generating substantial unit labor costs increases.

Links of Interest

Market Snapshot
Detailed Market Summary
Market Internals
Economic Commentary
Movers & Shakers
Today in IBD
NYSE OrderTrac
I-Watch Sector Overview
NYSE Unusual Volume
NASDAQ Unusual Volume
Hot Spots
NASDAQ 100 Heatmap
DJIA Quick Charts
Chart Toppers
Option Dragon
Real-time Intraday Chart/Quote

Thursday Watch

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- ImClone Systems(IMCL) won US approval to sell its Erbitux cancer medicine as a treatment for patients with head and neck tumors, the first medicine for people with the disease in 45 years.
- Google Inc.(GOOG) which operates the most-used Internet search engine, is switching its servers to run on Advanced Micro Devices(AMD) chips instead of those made by Intel Corp.(INTC), according to a Morgan Stanley report.
- Honda Motor, buoyed by a 38% jump in sales of its Civic small car, helped Japanese and South Korean automakers widen their share of the US auto market in February.

Wall Street Journal:
- BellSouth Corp.(BLS) is considering charging customers on a so-called pay-as-you-go basis for its broadband Internet service, citing Chief Technology Officer Smith.

Financial Times:
- Former President Bill Clinton advised the United Arab Emirates’ DP World on its $6.8 billion acquisition of London-based Peninsular & Oriental Steam Navigation.
- General Motors Corp.’s(GM) board will not select a buyer for an $11.5 billion stake in its GMAC financial-services unit when it meets on March 6, citing an interview with Rick Wagoner.

Quitio daily el Comercio:
- Ecuador’s government aims to reach a free-trade agreement with the United States by April, after negotiating partners Peru and Colombia reached similar accords.

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on (AMLN), (ARO), (PETM) and (SGMS).
- Reiterated Underperform on (KEA).

Night Trading
Asian Indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.
S&P 500 indicated unch.
NASDAQ 100 indicated unch.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule

Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (BBG)/.59
- (CKP)/.36
- (CIEN)/-.02
- (DLM)/.21
- (KCS)/.80
- (NOVL)/.03
- (UVN)/.23

Upcoming Splits
- (PHLY) 3-for-1
- (QLGC) 2-for-1

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
- Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to rise to 285K versus 278K the prior week.
- Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 2450K versus 2495K prior.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, led by exporting shares in the region after better-than-expected US economic reports. I expect US equities to open mixed and to rise modestly into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

***Alert***

I will be unable to post for the next couple of days. Sorry for the inconvenience. I am still 100% net long.

Monday Watch

Weekend Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Russia and Iran reached a preliminary agreement on a joint-venture that would allow Russia to enrich uranium for the Islamic Republic and then send it back to the country, citing Iranian Vice President for Atomic Energy Aqazadeh.
- Wal-Mart Stores(WMT) said February same-store sales rose about 3.2%, within its forecast range.
- Dubai’s DP World will start talks with US government agencies about security at six ports it plans to take over, the company’s CEO said, in a bid to address congressional and state opposition to its $6.8 billion purchase of the harbors’ UK parent.
- Google(GOOG) must aid the government in its quest to prevent Internet pornography from reaching minors, the Justice Dept. said in a court filing.
- The US dollar is rising to an almost two-month high against the euro on speculation US reports this week will continue to show US economic strength.
- Crude oil is falling in NY after an attack on a Saudi Arabian oil plant failed to cut exports and Iran said it may let Russia process its uranium.

Barron’s:
- Apple Computer(AAPL) taking over Walt Disney(DIS) may make sense as Apple would be able to meld its media-delivery products with Disney’s “distressed” content and entertainment business, citing Christopher Whalen, an analyst at Institutional Risk Analysis.

NY Times:
- More than a dozen US schools are enrolling only high-school-age basketball players who are performing poorly in academic subjects, to enable them to compete in college sports.
- Former Enron Corp. Chairman Ken Lay’s wealth has diminished since the collapse of the energy trader to less than $650,000 from more than $400 million, citing personal financial records.
- Toshiba Corp. is gaining on Sony Corp.(SNE) in a race to develop the next generation of DVD players, a rivalry that some compare to Sony’s failed bid decades ago for support of its Betamax video format.

AP:
- John Bolton, US Ambassador to the United Nations, said that the UN “is deeply troubled by bad management, by sex and corruption and by a growing lack of confidence in its ability to carry out missions that are given to them.”

Washington Post:
- Fraudulent e-mails that seem to be from the IRS and seek personal financial information may rise as the April 15 deadline to file tax returns approaches.
- About 1.6 million US teenagers and young adults have misused stimulants intended for people with attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder, citing a study published online in the journal Drug and Alcohol Dependence.
- Leader of Iraq’s Sunni, Shiite and Kurdish factions met yesterday to condemn recent sectarian violence in an effort to prevent the attacks from escalating.

Rocky Mountain News:
- Donald Trump is seeking to build the tallest building in Denver, a 60-story luxury hotel and condo tower.

San Francisco Chronicle:
- California corrections officials allowed contractors hired to run prison drug-abuse treatment programs to spend taxpayer money on plasma televisions, cars and other items.

Financial Times:
- Europe is paying for its miscalculations on how to co-exist with Islam amid a crisis over cartoons depicting the Prophet Muhammad, a leader of France’s Muslim community said.

Sunday Business Post:
- Elan Corp.(ELN) is confident about the outcome of trials into a drug used to treat Alzheimer’s disease, citing Lars Ekman, head of research and development.

Observer:
- BP Plc won Chinese government approval to form a joint venture with Sinopec Group, which could give BP a 25% stake worth $14 billion in the Chinese oil company.

Handelsblatt:
- DaimlerChrysler AG(DCX) is likely to introduce the Smart small car into the US market, citing an interview with CEO Zetsche.

Tagesspiegel am Sonntag:
- Amazon.com(AMZN) expects worldwide sales to grow by as much as 23% this year, citing an interview with Ralf Kleber, Amazon’s German chief.

Xinhua News Agency:
- China faces the threat of a “massive” outbreak of bird flu because of a recent increase in cases among migratory birds, citing Agriculture Minister Du Qingling.

Kyodo News:
- Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party may formulate a plan by June to legalize casinos in Japan to attract more tourists.

Weekend Recommendations
Barron's:
- Had positive comments on (RCNI), (HET), (APOL), (BDOG), (GRMN), (PBH) and (IACI).
- Had negative comments on (CLCT) and (GHL).

Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on (HRZ), (SPLS), (STN), (CAKE), (MSFT) and (CL).
- Reiterated Underperform on (JNY).

Night Trading
Asian indices are +.25% to +.50% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.17%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.21%.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
(CVC)/unch.
(CNO)/.45
(DY)/.08
(HRL)/.48
(LOW)/.80
(MRX)/.26
(NEM)/.36
(UHS)/.48
(WRNC).24

Upcoming Splits
- (CELG) 2-for-1
- (EXP) 3-for-1
- (PMTC) 2-for-5

Economic Releases
10:00 am EST
- New Home Sales for January are estimated to rise to 1270K versus 1269K in December.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian Indices are higher, boosted by gains in base metal shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to build on gains into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.

Weekly Outlook

Click here for The Week Ahead by Reuters

There are a number of important economic reports of note and some significant corporate earnings reports scheduled for release this week.

Economic reports for the week include:

Mon. - New Home Sales
Tues. - Preliminary 4Q GDP, Preliminary 4Q Personal Consumption, Preliminary 4Q GDP Price Index, Chicago Purchasing Manager, Richmond Fed Index, Consumer Confidence, Existing Home Sales
Wed. - Personal Income, Personal Spending, PCE Core, Construction Spending, ISM Manufacturing, ISM Prices Paid, Total Vehicle Sales
Thur. - Initial Jobless Claims
Fri. - Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence, ISM Non-Manufacturing

Some of the more noteworthy companies that release quarterly earnings this week are:

Mon. - Cablevision Systems(CVC), Conseco Inc.(CNO), Hormel Foods(HRL), Lowe’s(LOW), Newmont Mining(NEM), Universal Health(UHS), Warnaco Group(WRNC)
Tues. - Autodesk(ADSK), BJ’s Wholesale(BJ), Cal Dive(CDIS), Ceradyne(CRDN), CommScope(CTV), Crown Castle(CCI), Deckers Outdoor(DECK), Eaton Vance(EV), Evergreen Solar(ESLR), HJ Heinz(HNZ), O’Reilly Automotive(ORLY), Payless ShoeSource(PSS), Scientific Games(SGMS), Staples(SPLS), Telephone & Data(TDS), Vornado Realty(VNO), Williams Cos(WMB)
Wed. - ADC Telecom(ADCT), American Eagle(AEOS), Autozone(AZ), Chico’s FAS(CHS), Copart(CPRT), Flour Corp.(FLR), Foot Locker(FL), Hovnanian Enterprises(HOV), Iron Mountain(IRM), Kroger(KR), Liz Claiborne(LIZ), McDermott Intl.(MDR), Medco Health(MHS), Omnivision Tech(OVTI), Pacific Sunwear(PSUN), Pall Corp.(PLL), Papa John’s(PZZA), Petsmart(PETM), Rowan Cos(RDC), Saks Inc.(SKS), SPX Corp.(SPW)
Thur. - Checkpoint Systems(CKP), Costco Wholesale(COST), Del Monte Foods(DLM), Novell Inc.(NOVL), Univision Communiciations(UVN)
Fri. - Serono SA(SRA), Tekelec(TKLC), Terex Corp.(TEX)

Other events that have market-moving potential this week include:

Mon. - CIBC Israeli Tech Conference, Citigroup Global Healthcare Conference, Bear Stearns Media Conference, Goldman Sachs Tech Symposium
Tue. - Citigroup Global Healthcare Conference, CSFB Networking Conference, Wachovia Homebuilding Conference, Goldman Tech Symposium, Jeffries Internet Conference, Bear Stearns Media Conference, Merrill Lynch Internet Conference, Merrill Lynch Global Communications Forum
Wed. - Goldman Tech Symposium, CIBC Gaming Conference, CSFB Networking Conference, Citigroup Global Healthcare Conference, Merrill Global Communications Forum, Bear Stearns Media Conference, Jeffries Wireless Broadband Conference, Merrill Lynch Internet Conference, Wachovia Homebuilders Conference
Thur. - CSFB Networking Conference, CSFB Truck Builders Conference, Merrill Lynch Internet Conference, Citigroup Utilities Conference, CIBC Gaming Conference
Fri. - Citigroup Utilities Conference, UBS Defense IT Conference

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly higher on mostly positive economic data, good earnings reports, lower energy prices and short-covering. My trading indicators are still giving mixed signals and the Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.