BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly lower into the final hour on losses in my Internet longs, Computer longs, Semi longs and Commodity shorts. I added to my (IWM) and (QQQQ) shorts, thus leaving the Portfolio 50% net long. The tone of the market is positive as the advance/decline line is higher, sector performance is positive and volume is about average. The fact that the tech sector was unable to rally today is a negative. I would like to see this important sector participate before becoming more confident that a tradable bottom is in place for the broad market. I expect US stocks to trade mixed into the close from current levels as weakness in the tech sector offsets bargain hunting and short-covering.
Friday, March 10, 2006
Stocks Modestly Higher into Final Hour as Commodity Shares Rebound
***Alert***
I am having trouble posting today due to technical problems with Blogger, the host of this site. Sorry for the inconvenience. I am positioned 75% net long.
Friday Watch
Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Microsoft(MSFT) Chairman Bill Gate’s net worth has risen to $50 billion, making him the world’s richest person and widening his lead over No. 2 Warren Buffett, according to Forbes magazine’s annual survey.
- Oil prices may fall further as the end of the winter heating season leads to a decline in fuel consumption, a Bloomberg survey shows.
- China’s producer prices rose in February at the slowest pace in more than two years as the cost of steel fell.
Business Week:
- Eli Lilly(LLY) is likely to boost profit because revenue will rise on its Byetta diabetes drug.
Kyodo Newswire:
- The short-range missiles tested this week by North Korea used upgraded technology that included the use of solid fuel to make transport easier and increase their accuracy.
China Daily:
- SigmaTel Inc.(SGTL), the world’s biggest maker of chips for MP3 players, plans to set up a subsidiary in the southern Chinese city of Shenzhen this month to increase sales.
Korea Herald:
- Kia Motors Corp. is expected to announce plans for its first US plant as early as next week, with a site in southwestern Georgia the leading contender.
Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on (CNO), (STZ), (NFP), (RE), (ENH) and (AIG).
- Reiterated Underperform on (HBAN) and (TWMC).
Night Trading
Asian Indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.02%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated unch.
Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule
Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (ANN)/.40
- (BOL)/1.20
- (LGN)/-.41
- (NAT)/1.47
- (PHH)/.52
- (SUP)/.22
Upcoming Splits
- (ATLS) 3-for-2
- (MINI) 2-for-1
- (PD) 2-for-1
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
- The Change in Non-farm Payrolls for February is estimated at 210K versus 193K in January.
- The Unemployment Rate for February is estimated at 4.7% versus 4.7% in January.
- The Change in Manufacturing Payrolls for February is estimated at 5K versus 7K in January.
- Average Hourly Earnings for February are estimated to rise .3% versus a .4% gain in January.
10:00 am EST
- Wholesale Inventories for January are estimated to rise .5% versus a 1.0% increase in December.
2:00 pm EST
- The Monthly Budget Deficit for February is estimated to widen to -$118.3 billion versus -$113.9 billion in January.
Bloomberg:
- Microsoft(MSFT) Chairman Bill Gate’s net worth has risen to $50 billion, making him the world’s richest person and widening his lead over No. 2 Warren Buffett, according to Forbes magazine’s annual survey.
- Oil prices may fall further as the end of the winter heating season leads to a decline in fuel consumption, a Bloomberg survey shows.
- China’s producer prices rose in February at the slowest pace in more than two years as the cost of steel fell.
Business Week:
- Eli Lilly(LLY) is likely to boost profit because revenue will rise on its Byetta diabetes drug.
Kyodo Newswire:
- The short-range missiles tested this week by North Korea used upgraded technology that included the use of solid fuel to make transport easier and increase their accuracy.
China Daily:
- SigmaTel Inc.(SGTL), the world’s biggest maker of chips for MP3 players, plans to set up a subsidiary in the southern Chinese city of Shenzhen this month to increase sales.
Korea Herald:
- Kia Motors Corp. is expected to announce plans for its first US plant as early as next week, with a site in southwestern Georgia the leading contender.
Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on (CNO), (STZ), (NFP), (RE), (ENH) and (AIG).
- Reiterated Underperform on (HBAN) and (TWMC).
Night Trading
Asian Indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.02%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated unch.
Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule
Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (ANN)/.40
- (BOL)/1.20
- (LGN)/-.41
- (NAT)/1.47
- (PHH)/.52
- (SUP)/.22
Upcoming Splits
- (ATLS) 3-for-2
- (MINI) 2-for-1
- (PD) 2-for-1
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
- The Change in Non-farm Payrolls for February is estimated at 210K versus 193K in January.
- The Unemployment Rate for February is estimated at 4.7% versus 4.7% in January.
- The Change in Manufacturing Payrolls for February is estimated at 5K versus 7K in January.
- Average Hourly Earnings for February are estimated to rise .3% versus a .4% gain in January.
10:00 am EST
- Wholesale Inventories for January are estimated to rise .5% versus a 1.0% increase in December.
2:00 pm EST
- The Monthly Budget Deficit for February is estimated to widen to -$118.3 billion versus -$113.9 billion in January.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by exporting shares in the region on US dollar strength. I expect US equities to open modestly lower and to rise into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.
Thursday, March 09, 2006
***Alert***
Due to a scheduling conflict I am unable to post the Thursday Close. I will post the Friday Watch later this evening. I finished the day positioned 25% net long.
Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Bounce in Oil and Rising Apprehension
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly lower into the final hour on losses in my Internet longs, Computer longs and Retail longs. I added to my (IWM)/(QQQQ) shorts and added (EEM) and (ATHR) shorts, thus leaving the Portfolio 25% net long. The tone of the market is negative as the advance/decline line is lower, sector performance is mostly negative and volume is above average. The market's reaction to National Semiconductor's (NSM) positive report, a reversal lower in long-term rates and the DP World news is disappointing. It appears the major averages have more work to do before another push higher can commence. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-lower into the close from current levels on weakness in the tech sector and rising apprehension ahead of tomorrow’s employment report.
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