Friday, September 08, 2006
Thursday, September 07, 2006
Friday Watch
Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Crude oil traded near a five-month low in NY after a government report showed supplies of gasoline in the US unexpectedly rose in the last week of the country’s peak summer demand.
- The US Senate unanimously approved an extra $200 million to intensify the hunt for Osama bin Laden, as al-Qaeda released a video tape showing the group’s leader meeting some of the Sept. 11, 2001, hijackers.
- Amazon.com(AMZN) introduced a digital-video download service, offering thousands of television shows, movies and other content from more than 30 studio and network partners.
- Three naturalized US citizens were indicted by a federal grand jury in California for allegedly acquiring secret US defense information and stolen military equipment and conspiring to send them to Yemen.
- Former Iranian President Mohammad Khatami said the US and Europe should offer to negotiate with Iran about its nuclear program without any conditions. On Sunday, Sept. 10, the eve of the fifth anniversary of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, Khatami will make an address at Harvard University.
- China’s producer-price inflation unexpectedly slowed for the first time in four months in August as gains in gasoline and raw material prices eased.
- Crude oil prices may continue to fall on speculation that US fuel inventories are sufficient to meet demand in coming months, a Bloomberg survey showed.
Wall Street Journal:
- Last year, more than 3,000 terrorist suspects wanted internationally were arrested, more than triple the number in 2001, wrote Intepol Secretary-General Ronald Noble.
Fortune:
- Frank Quattrone, the former Credit Suisse Group investment banker who struck a deal last month that would clear him of charges he obstructed justice, may reunite with former colleagues.
Apple Daily:
- Motorola(MOT) is evaluating possible acquisitions of handset, network and home-entertainment companies in Taiwan.
Xinhua:
- China’s economy is not overheating in general and the government’s macroeconomic control will show more results in the second half of the year, citing vice premier Wu Yi.
Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Citigroup:
- Reiterated Buy on (URBN), target $24.
Night Trading
Asian Indices are -.50% to +.25% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.13%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.08%.
Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule
Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (VOL)/.61
Upcoming Splits
- None of note
Economic Releases
3:00 pm EST
- Consumer Credit for July is estimated to fall to $6.8B versus $10.2B in June.
Bloomberg:
- Crude oil traded near a five-month low in NY after a government report showed supplies of gasoline in the US unexpectedly rose in the last week of the country’s peak summer demand.
- The US Senate unanimously approved an extra $200 million to intensify the hunt for Osama bin Laden, as al-Qaeda released a video tape showing the group’s leader meeting some of the Sept. 11, 2001, hijackers.
- Amazon.com(AMZN) introduced a digital-video download service, offering thousands of television shows, movies and other content from more than 30 studio and network partners.
- Three naturalized US citizens were indicted by a federal grand jury in California for allegedly acquiring secret US defense information and stolen military equipment and conspiring to send them to Yemen.
- Former Iranian President Mohammad Khatami said the US and Europe should offer to negotiate with Iran about its nuclear program without any conditions. On Sunday, Sept. 10, the eve of the fifth anniversary of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, Khatami will make an address at Harvard University.
- China’s producer-price inflation unexpectedly slowed for the first time in four months in August as gains in gasoline and raw material prices eased.
- Crude oil prices may continue to fall on speculation that US fuel inventories are sufficient to meet demand in coming months, a Bloomberg survey showed.
Wall Street Journal:
- Last year, more than 3,000 terrorist suspects wanted internationally were arrested, more than triple the number in 2001, wrote Intepol Secretary-General Ronald Noble.
Fortune:
- Frank Quattrone, the former Credit Suisse Group investment banker who struck a deal last month that would clear him of charges he obstructed justice, may reunite with former colleagues.
Apple Daily:
- Motorola(MOT) is evaluating possible acquisitions of handset, network and home-entertainment companies in Taiwan.
Xinhua:
- China’s economy is not overheating in general and the government’s macroeconomic control will show more results in the second half of the year, citing vice premier Wu Yi.
Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Citigroup:
- Reiterated Buy on (URBN), target $24.
Night Trading
Asian Indices are -.50% to +.25% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.13%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.08%.
Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule
Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (VOL)/.61
Upcoming Splits
- None of note
Economic Releases
3:00 pm EST
- Consumer Credit for July is estimated to fall to $6.8B versus $10.2B in June.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by commodity stocks in the region. I expect US equities to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.
Stocks Finish Lower on Growth Worries and Profit Taking
Indices
S&P 1,300.1294.02 -.48%
DJIA 11,331.44 -.66%
NASDAQ 2,155.29 -.58%
Russell 2000 706.47 -.78%
Wilshire 5000 12,935.19 -.50%
S&P Barra Growth 600.53 -.45%
S&P Barra Value 691.48 -.51%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 640.13 -.44%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 802.11 -.61%
Morgan Stanley Technology 498.29 -.69%
Transports 4,223.94 -.14%
Utilities 434.64 -.02%
Put/Call .90 -28.57%
NYSE Arms .95 -24.28%
Volatility(VIX) 13.88 +1.02%
ISE Sentiment 68.0 -33.98%
US Dollar 85.56 +.54%
CRB 323.61 -.56%
Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 67.18 -.47%
Unleaded Gasoline 164.50 +.30%
Natural Gas 5.70 -4.82%
Heating Oil 188.77 -1.22%
Gold 623.70 -.19%
Base Metals 239.84 +1.45%
Copper 365.20 +.11%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.78% -.21%
Leading Sectors
Homebuilders +.06%
Gaming -.09%
Retail -.10%
Lagging Sectors
Steel -1.35%
Coal -1.97%
Gold & Silver -3.48%
Evening Review
Detailed Market Summary
Market Gauges
Daily ETF Performance
Style Performance
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Economic Calendar
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Movers
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
In Play
Afternoon Recommendations
Oppenheimer:
- Rated (ADSK) Outperform.
Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Al-Qaeda has released a videotape purporting to show Osama bin Laden and other leaders plotting the hijackings of Sept. 11, 2001.
- San Francisco Fed Bank President Janet Yellen defended the central bank’s pause from two years of interest-rate increases and said inflation may recede “faster than many forecasters expect.”
- Alcatel SA(ALA) and Lucent Technologies(LU) shareholders approved the French company’s $10.5 billion purchase of its US competitor to create the world’s largest supplier of telephone networks.
- Former WorldCom Inc. CEO Ebbers, convicted of leading an $11 billion fraud, must start serving a 25-year term Sept. 26 after losing an appeal of his conviction.
- Gold and silver in NY tumbled the most in seven weeks as the dollar strengthened against the euro, eroding the appeal of precious metals as an alternative investment.
- Oil fell to a five-month low after an EIA report showed that supplies are higher than a year ago.
- Automakers must display crash-test scores on the window stickers of most new vehicles within a year as part of a US push to showcase safety data for consumers.
- The Bush administration outlined a program today that seeks to reduce US reliance on foreign oil by boosting the use of alternative fuels such as ethanol and biodiesel.
- Natural gas dropped to the lowest in more than seven weeks in NY as mild weather cut demand, allowing utilities to build inventories for winter.
S&P 1,300.1294.02 -.48%
DJIA 11,331.44 -.66%
NASDAQ 2,155.29 -.58%
Russell 2000 706.47 -.78%
Wilshire 5000 12,935.19 -.50%
S&P Barra Growth 600.53 -.45%
S&P Barra Value 691.48 -.51%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 640.13 -.44%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 802.11 -.61%
Morgan Stanley Technology 498.29 -.69%
Transports 4,223.94 -.14%
Utilities 434.64 -.02%
Put/Call .90 -28.57%
NYSE Arms .95 -24.28%
Volatility(VIX) 13.88 +1.02%
ISE Sentiment 68.0 -33.98%
US Dollar 85.56 +.54%
CRB 323.61 -.56%
Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 67.18 -.47%
Unleaded Gasoline 164.50 +.30%
Natural Gas 5.70 -4.82%
Heating Oil 188.77 -1.22%
Gold 623.70 -.19%
Base Metals 239.84 +1.45%
Copper 365.20 +.11%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.78% -.21%
Leading Sectors
Homebuilders +.06%
Gaming -.09%
Retail -.10%
Lagging Sectors
Steel -1.35%
Coal -1.97%
Gold & Silver -3.48%
Evening Review
Detailed Market Summary
Market Gauges
Daily ETF Performance
Style Performance
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Economic Calendar
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Movers
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
In Play
Afternoon Recommendations
Oppenheimer:
- Rated (ADSK) Outperform.
Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Al-Qaeda has released a videotape purporting to show Osama bin Laden and other leaders plotting the hijackings of Sept. 11, 2001.
- San Francisco Fed Bank President Janet Yellen defended the central bank’s pause from two years of interest-rate increases and said inflation may recede “faster than many forecasters expect.”
- Alcatel SA(ALA) and Lucent Technologies(LU) shareholders approved the French company’s $10.5 billion purchase of its US competitor to create the world’s largest supplier of telephone networks.
- Former WorldCom Inc. CEO Ebbers, convicted of leading an $11 billion fraud, must start serving a 25-year term Sept. 26 after losing an appeal of his conviction.
- Gold and silver in NY tumbled the most in seven weeks as the dollar strengthened against the euro, eroding the appeal of precious metals as an alternative investment.
- Oil fell to a five-month low after an EIA report showed that supplies are higher than a year ago.
- Automakers must display crash-test scores on the window stickers of most new vehicles within a year as part of a US push to showcase safety data for consumers.
- The Bush administration outlined a program today that seeks to reduce US reliance on foreign oil by boosting the use of alternative fuels such as ethanol and biodiesel.
- Natural gas dropped to the lowest in more than seven weeks in NY as mild weather cut demand, allowing utilities to build inventories for winter.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished higher today on gains in my Semi longs, Computer longs and Commodity shorts. I added back (IWM)/(QQQQ) hedges in the final hour, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. The tone of the market was negative today as the advance/decline line finished lower, most sectors declined and volume was slightly above average. Measures of investor anxiety were mixed into the close. Overall, today's market performance was modestly bearish. Trading was sloppy throughout the day. The homebuilders finished with a slight gain despite more negative news. Gold appears to have begun another leg lower as inflation worries continue to diminish and extreme speculation in all commodities subsides. The fact that the major averages can still fall on little new negative news likely means more sideways action in the near-term. Bloomberg reported that BP (BP) said that Prudhoe Bay could reach full capacity by the end of October. This is another headwind for oil. Oil finished floor trading near session lows and is nearing its long-term uptrend at around $66.33.
Stocks Modestly Lower into Final Hour on Growth Worries
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher into the final hour on gains in my Computer longs, Semi longs and Commodity shorts. I took profits in some of my (EEM) short and covered my (QQQQ)/(IWM) hedges today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is slightly negative as the advance/decline line is modestly lower, sector performance is mixed and volume is above average. Briefing.com is reporting that Wal-Mart's (WMT) CEO is saying that he is "very pleased" with the back-to-school selling season. I continue to believe most retailers will exceed holiday estimates as the effects of mortgage resets are vastly overestimated, pessimism dissipates, the labor market remains healthy, energy prices fall, long-term rates remain low and stocks rise. I expect US stocks to trade modestly higher into the close from current levels on bargain hunting, short covering and declining energy prices.
Today's Headlines
- Crude oil is falling to a five-month low after an EIA report showed that US oil inventories are higher than a year ago.
- Facebook, the college friend-finder Web site that competes with News Corp.’s MySpace.com, is encountering rising opposition from its members to new features that track changes made to profiles pages.
- NY developer Larry Silverstein’s plans for the World Trade center site include the construction of three of the city’s four tallest buildings, including the planned 1,776-foot Freedom Tower.
- The Nasdaq Stock Market(NDAQ) plans to expand into options trading, entering a market that’s growing more than twice as fast as equities.
- Stanley Fink, who build Man Group Plc into the world’s largest publicly traded hedge-fund manager, is stepping down as CEO after almost two decades at the company and as returns in the industry decline.
Wall Street Journal:
- Clear Channel Communications(CCU) is to provide real-time traffic information free to US customers who buy BMW’s 2007 models with a satellite navigation system.
- Wal-Mart Stores(WMT) began diversifying merchandise in different outlets in an effort to boost sales by catering to different local demographics groups.
- ESPN Inc. and apparel maker VF Corp. plan a sportswear line that will go on sale this month.
- BlackBerry’s new Pearl model offers video, camera, music and e-mail designed to appeal to consumers who want a device with all the bells and whistles.
- Some investors are withdrawing money from index funds that track hedge funds, having noticed that they tend to lag.
NY Times:
- Members of the Clinton Administration, including ex-Secretary of State Madeline Albright, sent letters to Walt Disney(DIS) complaining about an upcoming TV movie on the 9/11 terrorist attacks that depicts Clinton administration as preventing efforts to find Osama bin Laden.
AP:
- H&R Block(HRB) will offer bank accounts to customers who need to electronically deposit their income tax refunds.
Washington Post:
- Dunkin’ Donuts, a doughnut chain with 4,400 stores, is moving into new markets while chasing the coffee-drinking customers of Starbucks(SBUX).
China Coal News:
- China’s raw coal production in August rose 8.8% to 193.4 million metric tons as generators added capacity.
AFP:
- Iraq’s Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki signed an agreement today with the US Army that put Iraq’s military back under control of the government.
- Facebook, the college friend-finder Web site that competes with News Corp.’s MySpace.com, is encountering rising opposition from its members to new features that track changes made to profiles pages.
- NY developer Larry Silverstein’s plans for the World Trade center site include the construction of three of the city’s four tallest buildings, including the planned 1,776-foot Freedom Tower.
- The Nasdaq Stock Market(NDAQ) plans to expand into options trading, entering a market that’s growing more than twice as fast as equities.
- Stanley Fink, who build Man Group Plc into the world’s largest publicly traded hedge-fund manager, is stepping down as CEO after almost two decades at the company and as returns in the industry decline.
Wall Street Journal:
- Clear Channel Communications(CCU) is to provide real-time traffic information free to US customers who buy BMW’s 2007 models with a satellite navigation system.
- Wal-Mart Stores(WMT) began diversifying merchandise in different outlets in an effort to boost sales by catering to different local demographics groups.
- ESPN Inc. and apparel maker VF Corp. plan a sportswear line that will go on sale this month.
- BlackBerry’s new Pearl model offers video, camera, music and e-mail designed to appeal to consumers who want a device with all the bells and whistles.
- Some investors are withdrawing money from index funds that track hedge funds, having noticed that they tend to lag.
NY Times:
- Members of the Clinton Administration, including ex-Secretary of State Madeline Albright, sent letters to Walt Disney(DIS) complaining about an upcoming TV movie on the 9/11 terrorist attacks that depicts Clinton administration as preventing efforts to find Osama bin Laden.
AP:
- H&R Block(HRB) will offer bank accounts to customers who need to electronically deposit their income tax refunds.
Washington Post:
- Dunkin’ Donuts, a doughnut chain with 4,400 stores, is moving into new markets while chasing the coffee-drinking customers of Starbucks(SBUX).
China Coal News:
- China’s raw coal production in August rose 8.8% to 193.4 million metric tons as generators added capacity.
AFP:
- Iraq’s Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki signed an agreement today with the US Army that put Iraq’s military back under control of the government.
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