Weekly Outlook

Click here for The Week Ahead by Reuters

There are a number of economic reports of note and some significant corporate earnings reports scheduled for release this week.

Economic reports for the week include:

Mon. - None of note

Tues. - Durable Goods Orders, Consumer Confidence, Existing Home Sales, Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index

Wed. - 3Q GDP, 3Q GDP Price Index, 3Q Personal Consumption, 3Q Core PCE, New Home Sales, Fed’s Beige Book

Thur. - Personal Income, Personal Spending, PCE Deflator, Initial Jobless Claims, Chicago Purchasing Manager, House Price Index

Fri. - Construction Spending, ISM Manufacturing, ISM Prices Paid, Total Vehicle Sales

Some of the more noteworthy companies that release quarterly earnings this week are:

Mon. - Donaldson Co.(DCI)

Tues. - Chico’s FAS(CHS), Dollar General(DG), Dress Barn(DBRN), Jackson Hewitt(JTX)

Wed. - Aeropostale Inc.(ARO), BEA Systems(BEAS), JLG Industries(JLG), Marvell Tech(MRVL), Synopsys(SNPS), Telephone & Data(TDS), Tiffany & Co.(TIF)

Thur. - Brown-Forman(BF/A), Del Monte Foods(DLM), H&R Block(HRB), HJ Heinz(HNZ), Omnivision Tech(OVTI)

Fri. - Atwood Oceanics(ATW), Finisar Corp.(FNSR), j2 Global(JCOM), Multimedia Games(MGAM), Quanex Corp.(NX), Vimpel-Communications(VIP)

Other events that have market-moving potential this week include:

Mon. - None of note

Tue. - CSFB Tech Conference, JP Morgan Consumer & Retail Conference, Lazard Life Sciences Conference, CIBC Mid/Small-cap Best Ideas Conference, Goldman Sachs Shipping Conference, Merrill Lynch Health Services Conference

Wed. - CIBC Mid/Small-cap Best Ideas Conference, Lazard Life Sciences Conference, Piper Jaffray Health Care Conference, Bear Stearns Commodities & Capital Goods Conference, CSFB Tech Conference, JPMorgan Consumer & Retail Conference, Merrill Lynch Health Services Conference

Thur. - Bear Stearns Commodities & Capital Goods Conference, CSFB Tech Conference, Piper Jaffray Health Care Conference, monthly retail same-store-sales releases

Fri. - Piper Jaffray Health Care Conference, CSFB Tech Conference

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly higher on better-than-expected economic data, rising consumer spending optimism, lower energy prices, seasonal strength, strong corporate profits, investment manager performance anxiety and short-covering. My trading indicators are still giving bullish signals and the Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.

***Alert***

Due to a scheduling conflict, I will be unable to blog as much as usual over the next few days. Have a great Thanksgiving holiday and thanks for reading!

Job Market Still Healthy, Consumer Confidence Near 15-Month High, Inflation Expectations Fall

- Initial Jobless Claims for last week rose to 321K versus estimates of 310K and 309K the prior week.
- Continuing Claims rose to 2454K versus estimates of 2435K and 2440K prior.
- Final Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence for November fell to 92.1 versus estimates of 93.3 and a prior estimate of 92.3.

BOTTOM LINE: The number of US workers filing first-time applications for state jobless benefits increased more than expected last week, while remaining low enough to suggest little sign of weakening in the labor market, Bloomberg said. The four-week moving-average rose to 317,000 from 314,000 the prior week. The unemployment rate among those eligible for benefits, which tracks the US unemployment rate, remained at a historically low 1.9%. I continue to believe the job market will remain healthy over the intermediate-term without generating substantial unit labor costs increases.

Confidence among US consumers stayed close to a 15-month high in November as lower gas prices and more jobs helped Americans cope with the housing slowdown, Bloomberg reported. The current conditions component of the index, which gauges Americans’ perceptions of their financial situation and whether it’s a good time to buy big-ticket items, fell to 106 from 107.3. Consumers said they expect inflation of 3.0% over the next 12 months versus prior expectations of 3.1% inflation. ShopperTrak expects holiday spending to increase 5% this season. This number included the period surrounding the election. I expect consumer confidence to make new cycle highs over the intermediate-term as energy prices fall further, inflation continues to decelerate, long-term rates remain low, stocks continue to rise, housing stabilizes at relatively high levels and the job market remains healthy.

Links of Interest

Market Snapshot
Detailed Market Summary
Quick Summary
Economic Commentary
Movers & Shakers
Today in IBD
NYSE OrderTrac
I-Watch Sector Overview
NYSE Unusual Volume
NASDAQ Unusual Volume
Hot Spots
NASDAQ 100 Heatmap
DJIA Quick Charts
Chart Toppers
Option Dragon
Real-time Intraday Chart/Quote

Wednesday Watch

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Nokia Oyj(NOK) and Motorola(MOT) widened their lead over competitors in the third quarter as demand in Asia helped boost unit sales by 22%.
- China will double fees for land used for construction next year. The government is restricting land use to keep investment from growing too fast and to limit environmental damage. 16 of the world’s 20 most polluted cities are located in China.
- Imports of crude oil by Japan, the world’s third-largest consumer of oil, fell for a sixth straight month in October as higher prices prompted users to switch to gas. Purchases of liquefied natural gas surged 30% to 5.58 million metric tons.
- DirectTV Group(DTV), IAC/InterActiveCorp(IACI) and Questar Corp.(STR) will join the S&P 500.
- For the month ending November 15th, short interest increased to a new all-time high for the building products group.
- BHP Billiton(BHP) may refrain from bidding for Freeport-McMoRan(FCX) whose copper and gold mine in Indonesia has forecast declining sales to 2010.

Wall Street Journal:
- Russia plans to roughly triple domestic natural gas prices to curb local demand.

Financial Times:
- Time Warner’s(TWX) HBO cable network plans to start a broadband Internet television channel, citing HBO CEO Albrecht.

Xinhua News:
- China plans to build a $763 million solar power plant, the world’s largest, in the northern province of Gansu.

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
- None of note

Night Trading
Asian Indices are +.50% to +.75% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.04%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.11%.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Conference Calendar
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule

Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (HRL)/.63
- (OSI)/.32
- (PDCO)/.34

Upcoming Splits
- None of note

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
- Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to rise to 310K versus 308K the prior week.
- Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 2430K versus 2443K prior.

10:00 am EST
- Final Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence for November is estimated to rise to 93.3 versus prior estimates of 92.3.

10:30 am EST
- Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude build of 700,000 barrels versus a 1,283K barrel increase the prior week. Gasoline supplies are expected to fall by 750,000 barrels versus a 3,781,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are expected to fall by 1,100,000 barrels versus a 3,565,000 barrel drawdown the prior week. Refinery Utilization is expected to rise .75% versus a .83% decline the prior week. Finally, natural gas supplies are expected to fall 7 bcf versus a 5 bcf build the prior week.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US equities to open modestly higher and to maintain or build on gains into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Finish Mostly Higher, Consolidating Recent Gains

Indices
S&P 500 1,402.81 +.16%
DJIA 12,321.59 +.04%
NASDAQ 2,454.84 +.09%
Russell 2000 792.17 +.20%
Wilshire 5000 14,085.02 +.21%
S&P Barra Growth 651.79 +.22%
S&P Barra Value 748.76 +.11%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 677.03 -.03%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 885.99 +.38%
Morgan Stanley Technology 578.98 +.23%
Transports 4,851.88 +.28%
Utilities 449.39 +.24%
Put/Call 1.02 +24.39%
NYSE Arms .99 -19.23%
Volatility(VIX) 9.90 -.70%
ISE Sentiment 137.0 -15.43%
US Dollar 85.20 -.26%
CRB 310.32 +1.31%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 60.09 +2.19%
Unleaded Gasoline 162.10 +4.29%
Natural Gas 7.94 -.87%
Heating Oil 172.90 +3.48%
Gold 627.10 -.25%
Base Metals 233.87 +.62%
Copper 314.50 -.08%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.57% -.51%

Leading Sectors
Gold & Silver +3.75%
Steel +2.71%
Airlines +2.37%

Lagging Sectors
Drugs -.46%
Telecom -.60%
Semis -1.10%

Evening Review
Detailed Market Summary
Market Gauges
Daily ETF Performance
Style Performance
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Economic Calendar
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Movers
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
In Play

Afternoon Recommendations
- None of note

Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Dell Inc.(DELL) posted a third-quarter profit that beat analysts’ estimates and said steps to improve its financial performance are starting to take hold, sending the shares 9% higher in after-hours trading.
- US economic growth will slow to 2.9% in 2007 from 3.1% this year, the Council of Economic Advisers said.
- Crude oil rose to $60 a barrel in New York after the Trans-Alaska Pipeline System limited the amount of oil it will carry and a North Sea platform was shut because of a gas leak.
- The Justice Department, responding to a legal challenge by former Clinton administration Attorney General Janet Reno, says it stands by a decision to try a suspected terrorist outside the court system.
- The NY Merc announced today that it will expand COMEX metals electronic trading to include side by side trading, COMEX miNYs, Asian metals, and London metals futures contracts on the CME Globex® electronic trading platform beginning Dec. 3 for trade date December 4.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished higher today on gains in my Retail longs, Internet longs and Computer longs. I did not trade in the final hour, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market was neutral today as the advance/decline line finished about even, sector performance was mixed and volume was below average. Measures of investor anxiety were mostly higher into the close. Today's overall market action was neutral as the major averages continue to consolidate recent gains on below-average volume. Underneath the surface today, quite a number of stocks broke out on volume. As well, market leaders remain strong. The 10-year yield finished near session lows, down another 2 basis points as the White House lowered its economic growth forecast. Despite this, commodities were higher across the board with the CRB Index rising 1.3%. I think oil would have to rise into the upper 60s to generate any substantial weakness in the broad market. I view this as unlikely. The ISE Sentiment Index is plunged 33% to a very low 108.0 this morning. As well, the CBOE total/put call was at above-average levels throughout the day. I have heard a number of pundits point to the low VIX as a sign of the market's imminent demise. The last time the VIX broke below 10 was January 1994. The S&P 500 returned 60% over the next three years. I continue to believe the many U.S. stock market bears remain stunningly complacent as every minor dip is viewed as a major top and every rally just another short-selling/selling opportunity.