Thursday, January 11, 2007

Job Market Still Healthy

- Initial Jobless Claims for last week were 299K versus estimates of 320K and 325K the prior week.
- Continuing Claims fell to 2428K versus estimates of 2450K and 2431K prior.
BOTTOM LINE: First-time claims for state unemployment benefits in the US fell more than expected last week, reflecting a firm labor market and distortions to government figures caused by the holidays, Bloomberg said. The four-week moving-average of claims declined to 314,750, the lowest since Nov. 11. The unemployment rate among those eligible for jobless benefits, which tracks the US unemployment rate, remained steady at 1.9%. I continue to believe the job market will remain healthy over the intermediate-term without generating substantial unit labor cost increases.

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Wednesday, January 10, 2007

Thursday Watch

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Crude oil is falling to $52.94/bbl. in NY after a US government report showed demand plunged to its lowest in more than two years. “There’s really no one who is going to buy this thing. It’s catch a falling knife syndrome,” said Randy Simpson, vp of supply and trading at New West Petroleum Inc. in Sacramento, California. “The market seems very well supplied.” Oil has now plunged 32% from July 14, 2006 highs.
- President Bush announced that he’s sending more than 20,000 additional troops to Iraq, and said the US erred by not deploying more forces when sectarian violence began spiraling out of control last year.
- Cisco Systems(CSCO) sued Apple Inc.(AAPL) for trademark infringement over Apple’s use of the iPhone name. Apple called the lawsuit "silly," according to Dow Jones.
- Obesity surgeries for older Americans soared almost 21-fold to more than 15,000 procedures a year from 1998 to 2004, said a US government report.
- The Tokyo Stock Exchange is close to announcing an agreement with NYSE Group(NYX) that will strengthen ties between the world’s two largest equity markets, said Japan’s Minister for Financial Services.
- The European Central Bank will probably leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged as President Jean-Claude Trichet waits for more evidence of accelerating inflation before raising borrowing costs.
- Cerberus Capital Management LP, the NY-based buyout firm, is considering a bid for Equity Office Properties Trust(EOP) that may top Blackstone Group LP’s $36 billion offer.
- Goldman Sachs JBWere Pty, the Australian affiliate of the world’s most profitable investment bank, cut its price forecast for copper and zinc this half after investment funds sold the metals.
- The US must embrace “bold” energy policies to reduce its reliance on foreign sources of oil, Robert Hormats, vice chairman of Goldman Sachs Intl., told a Senate panel.
- Oil Search Ltd., Papua New Guinea’s biggest oil and gas producer, said it found oil at an exploration well in Egypt.

Financial Times:
- Wal-Mart Stores(WMT), Tesco Plc, Carrefour SA and Metro AG have agreed a set of workplace guidelines aimed at abolishing sweatshop issues, such as child labor and unpaid wages, from their supply chains.

London-based Times:
- Telefonica SA’s O2 Plc unit has held preliminary talks to gain some rights in Europe and the UK to Apple Computer’s iPhone.

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Morgan Stanley:
- Reiterated Overweight on (GILD), raised target to $81.

CSFB:
- Reiterated Outperform on (T), raised target to $39.

Night Trading
Asian Indices are -.50% to +.75% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.11%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.10%.

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Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (IHS)/.35
- (MTB)/1.88
- (MTG)/1.53
- (SRR)/.02

Upcoming Splits
- None of note

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
- Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to fall to 320K versus 329K the prior week.
- Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 2450K versus 2446K prior.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and automaker shares in the region. I expect US equities to open mixed and to rise into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Finish Near Session Highs as Oil Falls Through Another Key Technical Level and Technology Shares Rise

Indices
S&P 500 1,414.85 +.19%
DJIA 12,442.16 +.21%
NASDAQ 2,459.33 +.63%
Russell 2000 778.87 +.07%
Wilshire 5000 14,186.96 +.24%
Russell 1000 Growth 560.12 +.49%
Russell 1000 Value 807.88 +.03%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 700.24 +.28%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 894.0 +.33%
Morgan Stanley Technology 580.09 +.62%
Transports 4,641.47 +.19%
Utilities 448.90 +.14%
Put/Call .81 +3.85%
NYSE Arms .75 -52.36%
Volatility(VIX) 11.47 -3.69%
ISE Sentiment 103.0 -35.63%
US Dollar 85.08 +.39%
CRB 289.33 -.06%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 53.58 -3.70%
Reformulated Gasoline 142.40 -3.10%
Natural Gas 6.7 +1.42%
Heating Oil 151.90 -2.41%
Gold 612.20 -.46%
Base Metals 218.40 +1.69%
Copper 266.45 +4.24%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.68% +.65%

Leading Sectors
Airlines +2.69%
Gaming +2.43%
Semis +1.76%

Lagging Sectors
Gold & Silver -1.16%
Oil Service -1.33%
Energy -1.58%

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Afternoon Recommendations
- None of note

Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- US holiday retail sale surged 5.1% as consumers hunted for last-minute items and spent their gift cards, ShopperTrak RCT Corp. said. The increase in November and December sales beat the high end of ShopperTrak’s forecast for a gain of as much as 5% despite record warm temperatures that damped clothing demand.
- Shares of XM Satellite Radio(XMSR) and Sirius Satellite Radio(SIRI) jumped after comments by executives fueled speculation about a possible combination.
- Genentech(DNA) said fourth quarter profit soared 75%, helping by surging sales of a new treatment for age-related vision loss and expanded use of the Avastin cancer drug.
- Shares of Las Vegas Sands(LVS) hit a record after Jeffries said the company was granted the rights to build a hotel complex on China’s Hengqin Island.
- Crude oil plunged to a 19-month low, closing below another key technical level, after the EIA showed US fuel inventories surged for a fourth week and record investment fund speculation for the commodity continued to subside.
- Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Richard Fisher said that recent inflation figures were encouraging and that he’s “very comfortable” with the current level of interest rates.
- Russia said it would soon resume oil shipments via Belarus to Europe.

Wall Street Journal:
- Northwest Airlines Corp. has been in talks with Delta Air over a potential merger.

San Francisco Chronicle:
- Members of the Yale University Baker’s Dozen singing group were attacked in San Francisco after singing “The Star-Spangled Banner” at a party. Three students from the New Haven, Connecticut, institution were injured, including one who had a broken jaw.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished higher today on gains in my Semi longs, I-Banking longs, Computer longs, Internet longs and Energy-related shorts. I did not trade in the final hour, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market was modestly positive today as the advance/decline line finished about even, sector performance was mostly positive and volume was above average. Measures of investor anxiety were mixed into the close. Today's overall market action was bullish. The 10-year yield finished 3 basis points higher, but remains stable. Oil closed floor-trading below the $55/bbl. level and continues to trade very poorly in the face of numerous potential upside catalysts. I still believe the commodity will fall much further than most expect as the record speculation that drove it to insane levels ends and many speculators jump on the downside bandwagon. More positive U.S. economic data, technology stock strength, the stabilization of base metal prices, the refusal of U.S. stocks to break down despite potential catalysts and some stabilization in Latin American stocks (Brazil and Mexico closed at daily highs) should lead to a rally in Asian markets tonight. This should, in turn, propel U.S. equities broadly higher tomorrow.

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Another Fall in Oil Prices and Technology Sector Strength

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher into the final hour on gains in my Semi longs, Computer longs, I-banking longs, Internet longs and Energy-related shorts. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is slightly positive as the advance/decline line is about even, almost every sector is rising and volume is above average. The Saudi Tadawul Index is falling another 223 points today to 7,559, which is 61 points from its December 4, 2006 low. The index has collapsed 60.1% in less than a year. The gut wrenching declines in Middle Eastern bourses remain a big red flag for the many oil bulls. I suspect the smart money in the region that was bailing early last year was laughing at how the hugely flawed "peak oil theory" that they helped perpetuate had become an accepted truism around the globe, fueling the manias for all commodities and emerging markets. Given the steep declines in many commodity and emerging market stocks, the major averages are holding up extraordinarily well. Many market-leading growth stocks are already 5%-10% higher year-to-date. I continue to believe that large investors, both bears and many bulls, have cut back long exposure over the last six weeks in anticipation of the imminent decline they foresee. The longer we base around current levels, the higher the probability of an upside surge, in my opinion. I expect US stocks to trade modestly higher into the close from current levels on short-covering, more economic optimism, lower energy prices and bargain-hunting.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
- OPECs’ President al-Hamli held talks over the phone yesterday with OPEC ministers on whether the group should attempt to counter the recent decline in oil prices.
- Copper prices will decline to average of $2.50 a pound in 2007 as supplies outpace demand, Chile’s National Mining Society said.
- Eastman Kodak(EK) agreed to sell its health-care imaging unit to Onex Corp. for as much as $2.55 billion to pay down debt as it struggles to build its digital business.
- Apple Inc. CEO Steve Jobs is targeting the company’s new iPhone at users of Research In Motion’s(RIMM) BlackBerry and Palm’s(PALM) Treo.
- Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Moskow said he expects economic growth to gain strength this year and the low unemployment rate means policy makers must remain “vigilant” on inflation.
- In a speech to the nation tonight, President Bush will tell Americans that his plan puts a greater burden on Iraqis to take responsibility for their own security and that he has won a pledge from Iraqi Prime Minister al-Maliki to beef up his military and commit $10 billion to stabilize and rebuild the country.
- Sears Holdings Corp.(SHLD) forecast fourth-quarter profit will rise as much as 28%, beating analysts estimates.
- The US dollar climbed to the highest in about three months against the yen and the strongest in six weeks against the euro after the US trade deficit unexpectedly narrowed in November.
- Crude oil fell for a third day, approaching an 18-month low and closing floor trading below another key technical level, after an EIA report showed that US fuel supplies rose for a fourth week.
- Emerging-market stocks headed for their longest losing streak since May, as the Venezuelan president’s pledge to nationalize industries and Thailand’s curbs on foreign ownership shook investor confidence.
- Tiffany(TIF) reported the biggest holiday sales increase in three years as spending jumped at its NY flagship store.
- Venezuelan President Chavez this morning said socialism will be Venezuela’s “salvation.”
- The US should increase its target for ethanol and biodiesel use by 76% to help reduce the country’s reliance on imported oil, an association of 37 state governors said.
- Renewable Power & Light Plc, a producer of alternative fuels, signed an agreement to build a 60 million gallon-a-year biodiesel plant in northern New York to be used to create motor fuels.
- Saudi Arabia, the largest OPEC oil producer, will complete work to add 500,000 barrels a day of crude production from its Khursaniyah oil fields program on schedule.

Wall Street Journal:
- Hedge funds are bidding up commercial rents in London’s Mayfair district, helping give London’s West End the world’s most expensive occupancy costs.
- Gannett Co.(GCI), McClatchy Co. and Tribune(TRB), the three biggest US newspaper companies, are teaming up to sell advertising on their Web sites, as they seek big advertisers that want a nationwide online market.

NY Times:
- NYC is developing a playground with so-called play workers who will help children interact with water, ramps, sand and specially designed objects meant to spur the imagination.
- President Bush will likely introduce plans to revive government-owned Iraqi factories and privatize companies as part of his new strategy to stabilize the country.

NY Daily News:
- NY Mayor Michael Bloomberg plans to shift more management of the city’s public schools to private companies and cut the number of regional school districts to five from ten.

Financial Times:
- Angela Merkel, the German Chancellor, said the country needs to diversify its energy supplies and consider reversing plans to phase out nuclear power.

Interfax:
- Gold buying by Russian banks dropped 8% last year, citing an official at the state-run precious-metals and gemstones repository.

Handelszeitung:
- Adecco SA, the world’s largest temporary jobs company, will consider acquisitions in Central Europe and the US, CEO Scheiff said.

Poslovni Dnevnik:
- Croatian energy company Ina Industrija Nafte d.d., along with German partner RWE-DEA AG Fuer Mineraloel und Chemiem, discovered an oil field in western Egypt.

Business Day:
- Gold is likely to fall this year as the US dollar strengthens, reducing its appeal as an alternative investment, citing Standard Chartered Plc.

Sina.com:
- China’s Internet search-related sales may rise to $3.3 billion yuan in 2008 from 1.6 billion yuan last year.