Friday, January 12, 2007

Import Prices Bounce, Retail Sales Healthy

- Import Price Index for December rose 1.1% versus estimates of a .6% gain and an upwardly revised .5% increase in November.
- Advance Retail Sales for December rose .9% versus estimates of a .7% gain and a downwardly revised .6% increase in November.
- Retail Sales Less Autos for December rose 1.0% versus estimates of a .5% increase and a downwardly revised .7% gain in November.
BOTTOM LINE: Prices of goods imported into the US rose in December by the most in seven months, reflecting higher crude oil and natural gas costs, Bloomberg reported. Both commodities have since declined substantially. Import prices excluding petroleum rose 1.7% in 2006 versus a 2.4% gain in 2005. The back-to-back modest gains in import prices for November and December followed a 2.6% decline in October and a 2.2% drop in September, which were the greatest declines since record-keeping began in 1989. With the recent plunge in commodity prices, inflation readings a couple of months from now should show another substantial deceleration. I continue to believe inflation concerns have peaked for this cycle and will remain at below-average levels over the intermediate-term.

Retail sales in the US rose more than forecast in December, capping the strongest back-to-back gains in almost a year, as growing incomes kept Americans shopping, Bloomberg reported. Brisk sales at restaurants, electronics and department stores led last month’s gains. Sales at electronic and appliance retailers rose 3% after surging 5.8% in November. Restaurants sold 2.3% more meals. Gasoline prices are down 25% from August highs and poised to go lower on the recent plunge in oil. Workers’ average hourly earnings rose 4.2% year-over-year last month, more than twice the current rate of inflation as measured by the CPI. I expect retail sales to accelerate modestly to above-average levels over the coming months into the spring shopping season as sentiment makes new cycle highs, gas prices fall further, interest rates remain low, housing stabilizes at relatively high levels, auto production cutbacks subside and stocks rise further.

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Thursday, January 11, 2007

Friday Watch

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Fourteen advisers to former US President Jimmy Carter’s center for human rights resigned today, citing his stance on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. They quit in reaction to Carter’s book, “Palestine: Peace Not Apartheid,” as well as his statements since its publication. Carter portrays the Palestinian-Israeli conflict as a “purely one-sided affair,” with Israel holding all of the responsibility for resolving it. “You have clearly abandoned your historic role of broker in favor of becoming an advocate for one side,” the group wrote in a letter, a copy of which was obtained by Bloomberg. “Your book has confused opinion with fact, subjectivity with objectivity and force for change with partisan advocacy.”
- Crude oil may fall toward $50 a barrel as plunging US fuel consumption bolsters stockpiles in the world’s biggest energy consumer, a Bloomberg survey of 47 analysts, traders and brokers showed.
- The US dollar rose to the highest in 13 months against the yen before a US government report today that will probably show retailers had the strongest back-to-back sales in almost a year at the end of 2006.
- Advanced Micro Devices’(AMD) fourth-quarter profit tumbled because of falling semiconductor prices sparked by Intel’s(INTC) push to regain market share.
- Starbucks(SBUX) will enter India by tying up with Kishore Biyani, head of the country’s biggest publicly traded retailer, and VP Sharma, president of the US company’s Indonesian franchise.
- Sales of Sony’s(SNE) PlayStation 3 video-game console lagged behind Nintendo’s Wii and Microsoft’s(MSFT) Xbox 360 during the US holiday season after production glitches limited supplies.
- Copper futures in Shanghai are falling, erasing some of this week’s advance from a nine-month low as rising global stockpiles renewed concern that demand for the metal may be slowing.
- Australia warned “imminent” terror attacks in southern Philippines may occur “anytime” during a meeting of Asian leaders in the central part of the country.
- Global steel prices led by the US may fall this year driven down by increasing output from Asian mills, Wachovia Corp. said.
- China Petrochemical Corp., the nation’s second-biggest oil company, said overseas crude oil output more than doubled in 2006 after it acquired oilfields in Russia and Ecuador.

Financial Times:
- China’s government has halted the start of new domestic equity funds amid concerns the nation’s stock market risk over-heating.

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Citigroup:
- Positive trends in wage growth and unemployment, along with continued energy price declines and the current steady interest rate environment, point to solid macroeconomic footing and a healthy consumer for 2007.

Business Week:
- Sempra Energy(SRE), owner of San Diego Gas & Electric and Southern California Gas, is driving its stock higher by acquiring and developing energy assets, citing Paul Justice of Morningstar.
- Thermage Inc.(THRM), which makes medical devices for the non-invasive treatment of wrinkles, is expected to climb when the company releases a new product, citing Katherine Owen, an analyst at Merrill Lynch.
- Lockheed Martin(LMT) will benefit from threats to US security and the replacement of aging defense equipment, citing S&P analyst Richard Tortoriello.

CSFB:
- Reiterated Outperform on (LVLT) and raised 07 estimates, target $7.50.

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Asian Indices are +1.0% to +1.50% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.08%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.04%.

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Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
- The Import Price Index for December is estimated to rise .6% versus a .2% rise in November.
- Advance Retail Sales for December are estimated to rise .7% versus a 1.0% gain in November.
- Retail Sales Less Autos for December are estimated to rise .5% versus a 1.1% increase in November.

10:00 am EST
- Business Inventories for November are estimated to rise .4% versus a .4% increase in October.

2:00 pm EST
- The Monthly Budget Surplus for December is estimated to rise to $25.6 billion versus $11.0 billion in November.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are sharply higher, boosted by technology and automaker shares in the region. I expect US equities to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Finish Highe as Oil Plunge Continues and Ecnomic Optimism Rises

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Stocks Sharply Higher into Final Hour on Another Plunge in Oil and Rising Economic Optimism

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher into the final hour on gains in my Internet longs, Telecom longs, Medical longs, Retail longs, Biotech longs and Energy-related shorts. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is very positive as the advance/decline line is substantially higher, almost every sector is rising and volume is heavy. Oil Movements is saying that OPEC shipments of crude are rising 1.5% this month from December. This is likely the reason for oil's $3 per barrel decline in the last few hours. The commodity continues to trade very poorly. OPEC tried to defend it at $60, then at $58 and then at $55. OPEC has never had much success stopping a substantial decline in the past. As I have said many times before, the longer oil stays anywhere near current levels, the greater the long-term demand destruction, which is already pervasive globally. A CNBC commentator just asked why natural gas is plunging 6%. Natural gas inventories are at all-time high levels and 18% above the five-year average for this time of the year. The long-term average price for natural gas is $4.63. Prices anywhere near current levels are absurd, in my opinion. The same thing that has been driving the mania for most commodities -- namely, historic speculation by investment funds -- has been keeping natural gas levitating at sky-high prices. The CRB Index is now in a bear market, falling 21.4% from May 2006 record highs. Natural gas is falling because the mania for commodities is ending. Forced liquidations and redemptions are likely just beginning for the hordes of newly minted commodity funds, and downside speculation has just begun. I expect US stocks to trade modestly higher into the close from current levels on short-covering, more economic optimism, lower energy prices and bargain-hunting.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
- US stocks are rallying, pushing the DJIA to another record, as a four-day slide in oil prices bolstered earnings prospects for technology companies, retailers and banks.
- Crude oil is dropping below $52/bbl. for the first time in 19 months, falling to $51.90/bbl.
- Will $1 trillion become a curse for the four-year rally in emerging-market stocks, as it was for the Internet bubble of the 1990s? The question arises because the value of China’s stock market exceeded this threshold yesterday and Russia’s did so last month. Before then, no emerging market had ever been so large.
- Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Cathy Minehan, who never dissented in interest-rate decisions since taking office in 1994, will retire this year.
- General Motors(GM) said it expects to improve automotive earnings and cash flow this year and will increase the amount of money it spends on developing new models.
- Toyota Motor Corp.(TM) may build as many as five North American assembly plants in the next 10 years.
- The Bank of England unexpectedly raised its benchmark interest rate by a quarter-point, the third increase since August.
- OPEC’s president said crude oil’s plunge to $53 a barrel is “unacceptable” and urged members to comply with pledged production cuts.
- Natural gas is plunging over 6% as inventories at record highs and 18% above the five-year average for this time of year cuts record speculation by investment funds for the commodity.
- The CRB Index is in bear market territory, falling 21.3% from

Wall Street Journal:
- A group of four big US banks met with Bush administration officials on Jan. 4 to voice their concerns about impending international capital standards known as Basel II.
- Primax Electronics Ltd., Entery Industrial and other Taiwanese companies could benefit if Apple Inc.’s(AAPL) new iPhone multimedia mobile phone becomes successful.
- General Motors(GM), Ford Motor(F) and Toyota Motor(TM) are trying to attract younger buyers for models such as the Buick, Lincoln, and Lexus that usually appeal more to older drivers.
- IBM(IBM) was awarded more patents last year by the US Patent and Trademark Office than any other company for the 14th year in a row.
- Apple’s(AAPL) iPhone is worth waiting for if you can afford its initial $499 price, Walt Mossberg wrote.
- Top US brokerage firms are garnering handsome profits after making changes to the way in which investors’ idle cash balances are treated.

NY Times:
- US states that provided $500 million of the $3.3 billion spent on insulin in the US in 2005 want the FDA to set standards for a generic version of the drug.

AP:
- US airport security trays may carry advertising for laptops, luxury cars and other products, as part of a program that lets companies give supplies to airports in exchange for marketing rights.

Reuters:
- Pfizer Inc.(PFE) may seek to offer an over-the-counter version of its Viagra anti-impotence drug.

Washington Post:
- The US government shouldn’t be forced to negotiate prescription drug prices for Medicare because the private market is already doing the job well, wrote Michael Leavitt, secretary of health and human services. The typical monthly premium for the drug benefit has dropped from $22 from $38, showing that competition in private industry can control prices, Leavitt said. The Veterans Affairs health system, often cited as an example of successful government price negotiations, doesn’t cover numerous newer drugs that Medicare does, such as Pfizer’s(PFE) Lipitor, the best-selling anti-cholesterol pill.

Financial Times:
- Hedge-fund investors are finding it harder to find managers who can meet their expectations, citing a Deutsche Bank AG survey.

Les Echos:
- French drug sales barely grew last year and may be just as lackluster this year, pharmaceutical industry body LEEM estimated. French people cut their consumption of drugs as doctors, under pressure from the government, prescribed fewer antibiotics, antidepressants and cholesterol medicines. They also bought more generics. The government last year also cut reimbursements on a list of drugs that it says didn’t show enough medical benefits.

Le Parisien:
- France’s Socialist Party will raise income taxes for the country’s highest earners if elected, citing party leader Francois Hollande. The higher taxes would be for those who earn $77,832 annually. That would cancel out tax cuts implemented by the current government.

Gestion:
- Peru’s currency will fall against the US dollar this year as a decline in commodity prices slows US dollar inflows, citing central bank President Julio Velarde.