BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly higher into the final hour on gains in my Retail longs, Medical longs and Commodity shorts. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is slightly positive as the advance/decline line is modestly higher, sector performance is mixed and volume is about average. Over the weekend, the Financial Times reported that an overwhelming majority of citizens in the European Union believe the euro has damaged their economies. Global economic growth has boomed over the last few years and many Europeans are already this pessimistic on the euro's effects on their economies. I suspect during the next significant global economic downturn we will see a serious push in some prominent countries to leave the EU all together. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close from current levels on falling energy prices and stable long-term rates.
Monday, January 29, 2007
Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Another Decline in Energy Prices
Today's Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Oil is falling another $1.37/bbl. on comments from Saudi Arabia that they are happy with oil around $50/bbl.
- Copper prices are plunging 4% as LME inventories have surged 8% in the last week and are near 3 year highs.
- Corn prices in Chicago fell on speculation that commodity- and hedge-fund managers this week will reduce record net-long positions.
- Stainless-steel producers, which use about two-thirds of global nickel supplies, are reducing the amount of the metal in their products after prices soared to a record, an industry organization said.
- The yen declined to the lowest against the US dollar in more than four years after a Japanese government report showed a drop in retail sales last month.
- Microsoft Corp.(MSFT) expects to see a “bump” in sales from the release of its new Windows Vista program, CEO Ballmer said. Symantec Corp.(SYMC) agreed to buy Altiris Inc. for about $830 million in cash to gain programs that help companies manage software for their businesses.
- Merrill Lynch(MER) agreed to buy First Republic Bank for $1.8 billion in cash and stock.
Wall Street Journal:
- Russia’s OAO Gazprom, the world’s No. 2 oil company by reserves after Exxon Mobil(XOM), will double spending on development to $20 billion this year, said Alexander Medvedev, who heads Gazprom’s export effort.
- US utility companies are competing for the best locations for new nuclear power plants and more than $8 billion in federal subsidies.
NY Times:
- Iran plans to expand economic and military ties with Iraq, including opening a national bank in Baghdad and offering military training, citing an interview with Iran’s ambassador to Iraq.
- Nielsen Media Research will for the first time begin using the viewings of college students living away from home.
USA Today:
- House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and two other top Democrats violated a federal ethics law that requires disclosure of leadership roles at non-profit organizations, citing financial disclosure records.
Washington Post:
- President Bush’s new plan to stabilize Baghdad “corrects the problems that plagued previous efforts,” National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley wrote.
Independent:
- Mark Mobius, who manages the Templeton Emerging Markets Investment Trust, faces criticism from City of London Investment Group, the trust’s biggest investor with a 13% stake. In an open letter to the board, City said Mobius runs the trust like an index-tracking vehicle, without much active stock-selection, and thus fails to justify the fees charged by his company, Franklin Templeton Investments.
Boersen:
- AP Moeller-Maersk A/S, the world’s largest container-ship owner, expects oil production in the UK part of the North Sea to rise, citing a director. Production growth will stem from new finds and better exploitation of known fields with new technology.
La Gaceta de los Negocios:
- Actividades de Construccion & Servicios SA, a Spanish construction company, may acquire a company or an “attractive” asset in the US to reinforce its presence in that country.
La Lettre de L’Expansion:
- Sanofi-Aventis SA and Bristol-Myers Squibb(BMY) signed a preliminary agreement to combine last week.
Ma’ariv:
- Nice Systems Ltd. may announce the acquisition of rival Witness Systems(WITS) for $820 million this week.
- Oil is falling another $1.37/bbl. on comments from Saudi Arabia that they are happy with oil around $50/bbl.
- Copper prices are plunging 4% as LME inventories have surged 8% in the last week and are near 3 year highs.
- Corn prices in Chicago fell on speculation that commodity- and hedge-fund managers this week will reduce record net-long positions.
- Stainless-steel producers, which use about two-thirds of global nickel supplies, are reducing the amount of the metal in their products after prices soared to a record, an industry organization said.
- The yen declined to the lowest against the US dollar in more than four years after a Japanese government report showed a drop in retail sales last month.
- Microsoft Corp.(MSFT) expects to see a “bump” in sales from the release of its new Windows Vista program, CEO Ballmer said. Symantec Corp.(SYMC) agreed to buy Altiris Inc. for about $830 million in cash to gain programs that help companies manage software for their businesses.
- Merrill Lynch(MER) agreed to buy First Republic Bank for $1.8 billion in cash and stock.
Wall Street Journal:
- Russia’s OAO Gazprom, the world’s No. 2 oil company by reserves after Exxon Mobil(XOM), will double spending on development to $20 billion this year, said Alexander Medvedev, who heads Gazprom’s export effort.
- US utility companies are competing for the best locations for new nuclear power plants and more than $8 billion in federal subsidies.
NY Times:
- Iran plans to expand economic and military ties with Iraq, including opening a national bank in Baghdad and offering military training, citing an interview with Iran’s ambassador to Iraq.
- Nielsen Media Research will for the first time begin using the viewings of college students living away from home.
USA Today:
- House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and two other top Democrats violated a federal ethics law that requires disclosure of leadership roles at non-profit organizations, citing financial disclosure records.
Washington Post:
- President Bush’s new plan to stabilize Baghdad “corrects the problems that plagued previous efforts,” National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley wrote.
Independent:
- Mark Mobius, who manages the Templeton Emerging Markets Investment Trust, faces criticism from City of London Investment Group, the trust’s biggest investor with a 13% stake. In an open letter to the board, City said Mobius runs the trust like an index-tracking vehicle, without much active stock-selection, and thus fails to justify the fees charged by his company, Franklin Templeton Investments.
Boersen:
- AP Moeller-Maersk A/S, the world’s largest container-ship owner, expects oil production in the UK part of the North Sea to rise, citing a director. Production growth will stem from new finds and better exploitation of known fields with new technology.
La Gaceta de los Negocios:
- Actividades de Construccion & Servicios SA, a Spanish construction company, may acquire a company or an “attractive” asset in the US to reinforce its presence in that country.
La Lettre de L’Expansion:
- Sanofi-Aventis SA and Bristol-Myers Squibb(BMY) signed a preliminary agreement to combine last week.
Ma’ariv:
- Nice Systems Ltd. may announce the acquisition of rival Witness Systems(WITS) for $820 million this week.
Sunday, January 28, 2007
Monday Watch
Weekend Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Broadcom Corp.(BRCM), a maker of chips for consumer devices, didn’t infringe two patents owned by Qualcomm Inc.(QCOM), a federal jury in San Diego found.
- Bank of America(BAC), blocked by federal rules from buying another big US bank, has discussed an alliance with Countrywide Financial Corp.(CFC), the nation’s largest mortgage lender.
- Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert’s coalition government approved the appointment of Raleb Majadele today as the nation’s first Arab Muslim Cabinet member.
- Intel Corp.(INTTC) said it made a breakthrough in transistor technology that allows it to make faster, smaller, more efficient processors.
- The US dollar rose for a third straight week against the yen as gains in US durable goods orders and home sales suggested the economy is strengthening.
- President Bush, seeking to garner support for the key proposals in his State of the Union address this week, urged lawmakers to embrace bipartisanship on energy and health-care overhaul.
- Terrorism, a subject that has dominate recent meetings of the World Economic Forums, was largest absent as a topic at this year’s gathering as economic and political leaders turned their focus to global warming.
- Deutsche Telekom AG, Europe’s largest telephone company, unexpectedly cut its forecast for 2007 earnings, citing intensifying domestic competition and the effect of currency fluctuations.
- Institutional Shareholder Services today recommended Equity Office Properties(EOP) holders accept Blackstone Group’s $38.3 billion cash offer, the world’s biggest leveraged buyout.
- European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said the fastest money supply growth in 17 years validated recent interest rate increases.
- Richard Evans, CEO of Alcan Inc.(AL), the world’s second-largest aluminum producer, expects prices for the metal to be lower in a year.
- Japan’s retail sales fell in December, signaling consumer spending may be slow to recover from its worst slump in almost a decade.
- Energy companies stocks in the US are trading near the lowest prices relative to earnings since November 1982. However, commodity stocks historically look the “cheapest” before significant declines as their earnings are usually near peaks. The average annual price for a barrel of oil peaked in 1980 at $37.42. Moreover, oil topped in August of 1983 at about $33/bbl. and proceeded to plunge 70% to around $10/bbl. by August of 1986.
- US Treasury bond sales may fall to the lowest level in five years as economic growth boosts corporate tax revenue, reducing the government budget deficit.
- The US dollar is rising to the highest in almost four years against the yen on speculation reports this week will show the economy is improving, suggesting the Fed will refrain from lowering interest rates in coming months.
- China’s oil and gas demand and supply will be balanced this year, the nation’s top economic planner said. Tightness in coal and power supplies in China will ease in 2007. “The priority is to push for resource conservation, environmental protection and increase the quality of industrial output,” the National Development and Reform Commission said.
Wall Street Journal:
- Job creation accelerated and average pay rose in California’s Silicon Valley last year, extending technology companies’ recovery from the crash of 2000, citing an annual report by a nonprofit group. The unemployment rate fell to 4% from 5% the previous year and average pay for Silicon Valley employees rose 4% to $74,302.
Ticker Sense:
- Small/Mid-cap growth stocks are “cheaper” than their value counterparts.
NY Times:
- Gap Inc.(GPS), whose CEO Pressler resigned after two years of sales declines, needs to revamp its cradle-to-grave single-line fashion.
- The Freelancers Union, a group of 40,000 Web designers, video editors, writers, dancers and graphic artists in NY, plans to reach out to the 20 million US independent contractors.
Business Week:
- By focusing on the hours between traditional mealtimes, McDonald’s(MCD) is sizzling.
CNN.com:
- 8 technologies to save the world. These futuristic projects promise to make the world greener, while making entrepreneurs some green.
Chicago Tribune:
- Tribune Co.(TRB) rejected two takeover offers as too low and is talking to private-equity companies including Chicago-based Madison Dearborn Partners LLC about a management buyout.
AP:
- Google’s(GOOG) YouTube will begin sharing revenue with its millions of users, citing YouTube’s co-founder Chad Hurley.
Financial Times:
- The London Stock Exchange had more than $5.88 billion of listings by hedge funds last year, surpassing Zurich as the largest market, citing research by ABN Amro Holding NV.
- Global revenue from downloads of television programs and films from Web sites is forecast to grow 1,000% within five years, to $6.3 billion , due to an increase in the use of broadband, citing Informa, a business information group.
- Most French, Italian and Spanish citizens and over half of Germans consider the single European currency to have had a negative impact on their economies, citing a Harris poll. Of those surveyed in France, only 5% said the euro has had a positive effect on the domestic economy.
Sunday Telegraph:
- London Stock Exchange Plc CEO Furse has scheduled meetings with the exchange’s largest shareholders to ask their help in fending off a hostile bid from Nasdaq Stock Market(NDAQ).
- Virgin Group Ltd., the closely held company run by billionaire Richard Branson, plans to list the shares of its US cell phone business on a US stock exchange.
AutomobilWoche:
- Ford Motor Co.(F) CEO Alan Mulally plans to export more cars from the company’s European plants to the US as smaller, more fuel-efficient vehicles become more popular.
El Universal:
- Venezuela may cut the work day to six hours from eight hours to give workers time for “education and instruction,” citing Labor Minister Jose Rivero. President Hugo Chavez said Jan. 25 that the government may force private companies to allow workers at least one hour a day to study “socialist thought.”
Xinhua News Agency:
- China’s crude steel production rose 18.5% last year to 419 million metric tons, citing figures from the nation’s top planning agency.
Commercial Times:
- Taiwan Power Co. plans to spend $106 million on installing solar panels in a four-year period that will start in 2008.
Al-Seyassah:
- Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah warned Iran against interfering in the kingdom’s affairs, saying the Persian state’s polices must not endanger the region. The Saudi monarch said he told visiting Iranian envoy Ali Larijani last week that the oil-rich kingdom does not want any country to become its enemy or to threaten it or its Gulf Arab neighbors.
Weekend Recommendations
Barron's:
- Made positive comments on (MO), (TXI), (KALU) and (NAV).
- Made negative comments on (BMC).
Citigroup:
- Despite weak demand, 4Q06 inventories for chipmakers and in other areas of the supply chain are coming down, much to our surprise. Lower-than-expected utilization rates at foundries account for this reduction. Meanwhile, signs are pointing to some component demand improvement in January, notably in the PC supply chain and the handset supply chain. We conclude that the inventory problems facing the industry are not as bad as we feared. While we recognize that 1H07 seasonal headwinds create volatility, improved inventories clear the path for much more sustainable share appreciation in 2H07.
Night Trading
Asian indices are -.25% to +.50% on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.05%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated -.03%.
Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Conference Calendar
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
- (ATHR)/.20
- (CMI)/3.77
- (GNSS)/-.03
- (GNTX)/.18
- (GYI)/.56
- (JDAS)/.21
- (MAT)/.67
- (PD)/4.28
- (PCL)/.34
- (SGP)/.17
- (SYY)/.38
- (TSO)/1.90
- (UNM)/.44
- (TSN)/.06
- (USG)/1.30
- (VZ)/.61
- (ZMH)/.99
Upcoming Splits
- None of note
Economic Releases
- None of note
Bloomberg:
- Broadcom Corp.(BRCM), a maker of chips for consumer devices, didn’t infringe two patents owned by Qualcomm Inc.(QCOM), a federal jury in San Diego found.
- Bank of America(BAC), blocked by federal rules from buying another big US bank, has discussed an alliance with Countrywide Financial Corp.(CFC), the nation’s largest mortgage lender.
- Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert’s coalition government approved the appointment of Raleb Majadele today as the nation’s first Arab Muslim Cabinet member.
- Intel Corp.(INTTC) said it made a breakthrough in transistor technology that allows it to make faster, smaller, more efficient processors.
- The US dollar rose for a third straight week against the yen as gains in US durable goods orders and home sales suggested the economy is strengthening.
- President Bush, seeking to garner support for the key proposals in his State of the Union address this week, urged lawmakers to embrace bipartisanship on energy and health-care overhaul.
- Terrorism, a subject that has dominate recent meetings of the World Economic Forums, was largest absent as a topic at this year’s gathering as economic and political leaders turned their focus to global warming.
- Deutsche Telekom AG, Europe’s largest telephone company, unexpectedly cut its forecast for 2007 earnings, citing intensifying domestic competition and the effect of currency fluctuations.
- Institutional Shareholder Services today recommended Equity Office Properties(EOP) holders accept Blackstone Group’s $38.3 billion cash offer, the world’s biggest leveraged buyout.
- European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said the fastest money supply growth in 17 years validated recent interest rate increases.
- Richard Evans, CEO of Alcan Inc.(AL), the world’s second-largest aluminum producer, expects prices for the metal to be lower in a year.
- Japan’s retail sales fell in December, signaling consumer spending may be slow to recover from its worst slump in almost a decade.
- Energy companies stocks in the US are trading near the lowest prices relative to earnings since November 1982. However, commodity stocks historically look the “cheapest” before significant declines as their earnings are usually near peaks. The average annual price for a barrel of oil peaked in 1980 at $37.42. Moreover, oil topped in August of 1983 at about $33/bbl. and proceeded to plunge 70% to around $10/bbl. by August of 1986.
- US Treasury bond sales may fall to the lowest level in five years as economic growth boosts corporate tax revenue, reducing the government budget deficit.
- The US dollar is rising to the highest in almost four years against the yen on speculation reports this week will show the economy is improving, suggesting the Fed will refrain from lowering interest rates in coming months.
- China’s oil and gas demand and supply will be balanced this year, the nation’s top economic planner said. Tightness in coal and power supplies in China will ease in 2007. “The priority is to push for resource conservation, environmental protection and increase the quality of industrial output,” the National Development and Reform Commission said.
Wall Street Journal:
- Job creation accelerated and average pay rose in California’s Silicon Valley last year, extending technology companies’ recovery from the crash of 2000, citing an annual report by a nonprofit group. The unemployment rate fell to 4% from 5% the previous year and average pay for Silicon Valley employees rose 4% to $74,302.
Ticker Sense:
- Small/Mid-cap growth stocks are “cheaper” than their value counterparts.
NY Times:
- Gap Inc.(GPS), whose CEO Pressler resigned after two years of sales declines, needs to revamp its cradle-to-grave single-line fashion.
- The Freelancers Union, a group of 40,000 Web designers, video editors, writers, dancers and graphic artists in NY, plans to reach out to the 20 million US independent contractors.
Business Week:
- By focusing on the hours between traditional mealtimes, McDonald’s(MCD) is sizzling.
CNN.com:
- 8 technologies to save the world. These futuristic projects promise to make the world greener, while making entrepreneurs some green.
Chicago Tribune:
- Tribune Co.(TRB) rejected two takeover offers as too low and is talking to private-equity companies including Chicago-based Madison Dearborn Partners LLC about a management buyout.
AP:
- Google’s(GOOG) YouTube will begin sharing revenue with its millions of users, citing YouTube’s co-founder Chad Hurley.
Financial Times:
- The London Stock Exchange had more than $5.88 billion of listings by hedge funds last year, surpassing Zurich as the largest market, citing research by ABN Amro Holding NV.
- Global revenue from downloads of television programs and films from Web sites is forecast to grow 1,000% within five years, to $6.3 billion , due to an increase in the use of broadband, citing Informa, a business information group.
- Most French, Italian and Spanish citizens and over half of Germans consider the single European currency to have had a negative impact on their economies, citing a Harris poll. Of those surveyed in France, only 5% said the euro has had a positive effect on the domestic economy.
Sunday Telegraph:
- London Stock Exchange Plc CEO Furse has scheduled meetings with the exchange’s largest shareholders to ask their help in fending off a hostile bid from Nasdaq Stock Market(NDAQ).
- Virgin Group Ltd., the closely held company run by billionaire Richard Branson, plans to list the shares of its US cell phone business on a US stock exchange.
AutomobilWoche:
- Ford Motor Co.(F) CEO Alan Mulally plans to export more cars from the company’s European plants to the US as smaller, more fuel-efficient vehicles become more popular.
El Universal:
- Venezuela may cut the work day to six hours from eight hours to give workers time for “education and instruction,” citing Labor Minister Jose Rivero. President Hugo Chavez said Jan. 25 that the government may force private companies to allow workers at least one hour a day to study “socialist thought.”
Xinhua News Agency:
- China’s crude steel production rose 18.5% last year to 419 million metric tons, citing figures from the nation’s top planning agency.
Commercial Times:
- Taiwan Power Co. plans to spend $106 million on installing solar panels in a four-year period that will start in 2008.
Al-Seyassah:
- Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah warned Iran against interfering in the kingdom’s affairs, saying the Persian state’s polices must not endanger the region. The Saudi monarch said he told visiting Iranian envoy Ali Larijani last week that the oil-rich kingdom does not want any country to become its enemy or to threaten it or its Gulf Arab neighbors.
Weekend Recommendations
Barron's:
- Made positive comments on (MO), (TXI), (KALU) and (NAV).
- Made negative comments on (BMC).
Citigroup:
- Despite weak demand, 4Q06 inventories for chipmakers and in other areas of the supply chain are coming down, much to our surprise. Lower-than-expected utilization rates at foundries account for this reduction. Meanwhile, signs are pointing to some component demand improvement in January, notably in the PC supply chain and the handset supply chain. We conclude that the inventory problems facing the industry are not as bad as we feared. While we recognize that 1H07 seasonal headwinds create volatility, improved inventories clear the path for much more sustainable share appreciation in 2H07.
Night Trading
Asian indices are -.25% to +.50% on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.05%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated -.03%.
Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Conference Calendar
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
- (ATHR)/.20
- (CMI)/3.77
- (GNSS)/-.03
- (GNTX)/.18
- (GYI)/.56
- (JDAS)/.21
- (MAT)/.67
- (PD)/4.28
- (PCL)/.34
- (SGP)/.17
- (SYY)/.38
- (TSO)/1.90
- (UNM)/.44
- (TSN)/.06
- (USG)/1.30
- (VZ)/.61
- (ZMH)/.99
Upcoming Splits
- None of note
Economic Releases
- None of note
BOTTOM LINE: Asian Indices are mostly higher, boosted by commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.
Weekly Outlook
Click here for The Week Ahead by Reuters
There are a number of economic reports of note and several significant corporate earnings reports scheduled for release this week.
Economic reports for the week include:
Mon. - None of note
Tues. - Consumer Confidence
Wed. - MBA Mortgage Applications, ADP Employment Change, Advance 4Q GDP, Advance 4Q Personal Consumption, Advance 4Q GDP Price Index, Employment Cost Index, Construction Spending, Chicago Purchasing Manager, FOMC Rate Decision
Thur. - Challenger Job Cuts, Personal Income, Personal Spending, PCE Deflator, Initial Jobless Claims, Pending Home Sales, ISM Manufacturing, ISM Prices Paid, Total Vehicle Sales
Fri. - Change in Non-farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Change in Manufacturing Payrolls, Average Hourly Earnings, Factory Orders, Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence
Some of the more noteworthy companies that release quarterly earnings this week are:
Mon. - Cummins Inc.(CMI), JDA Software(JDAS), Mattel Inc.(MAT), Phelps Dodge(PD), Schering-Plough(SGP), Tyson Foods(TSN), Verizon Communications(VZ), Zimmer Holdings(ZMH)
Tues. - 3M Co(MMM), Aflac Inc.(AFL), Allstate Corp.(ALL), Apollo Group(APOL), Black & Decker(BDK), Burger King Holdings(BKC), Chicago Merc(CME), Chubb Corp.(CB), Colgate-Palmolive(CL), Corinthian Colleges(COCO), Countrywide Financial(CFC), Diebold Inc.(DBD), Flextronics(FLEX), General Motors(GM), Illinois Tool Works(ITW), Kellogg Co(K), Lexmark Intl(LXK), MBIA Inc.(MBI), Merck & Co.(MRK), Pepsi Bottling(PBG), Pilgrim’s Pride(PPC), Procter & Gamble(PG), Safeco Corp.(SFC), SanDisk Corp.(SNDK), United Parcel Service(UPS), US Air(LCC), Wyeth(WYE)
Wed. - Allergan Inc.(AGN), Altria Group(MO), Armor Holdings(AH), Boeing Co.(BA), Constellation Energy(CEG), Dominion Resources(D), Eastman Kodak(EK), Eli Lilly(LLY), Estee Lauder(EL), Gilead Sciences(GILD), Google Inc.(GOOG), Hilton Hotels(HLT), Ingersoll-Rand(IR), JB Hunt(JBHT), JDS Uniphase(JDSU), Kraft Foods(KFT), L-3 Communications(LLL), Microchip Tech(MCHP), MicroStrategy(MSTR), Murphy Oil(MUR), Nymex Holdings(NMX), Pulte Homes(PHM), Starbucks(SBUX), Time Warner Inc.(TWX), Tractor Supply(TSCO), VeriSign(VRSN), Xcel Energy(XEL)
Thur. - Amazon.com(AMZN), American Standard(ASD), Anheuser-Busch(BUD), Apache Corp.(APA), Archer-Daniels(ADM), Avid Tech(AVID), Boston Scientific(BSX), CA Inc.(CA), Celgene Corp.(CELG), Cerner Corp.(CERN), Clorox Co.(CLX), Comcast Corp.(CMCSA), CVS Corp.(CVS), Dolby Labs(DLB), Electronic Arts(ERTS), Exxon Mobil(XOM), Goodrich Corp.(GR), Intuitive Surgical(ISRG), JetBlue(JBLU), Marathon Oil(MRO), Monster Worldwide(MNST), Raytheon Cos(RTN), Royal Gold(RGLD), Sabre Holdings(TSG), St Paul(STA), Starwood Hotels(HOT), Under Armour(UA), Valero Energy(VLO), YRC Worldwide(YRCW)
Fri. - American Axle(AXL), Arch Coal(ACI), Equity Office Properties(EOP), Gannett Co.(GCI), ITT Corp.(ITT), Medimmune(MEDI), Moody’s Corp.(MCO), NYSE Group(NYX), Royal Caribbean(RCL), Ryder System(R), Sara Lee(SLE), THQ Inc.(THQI), Wendy’s Intl(WEN), Whirlpool Corp.(WHR)
Other events that have market-moving potential this week include:
Mon. - Wachovia Healthcare Conference
Tue. - Wachovia Healthcare Conference, Citigroup Financial Services Conference
Wed. - Citigroup Financial Services Conference, Wachovia Healthcare Conference
Thur. - Raymond James Growth Airline Conference, Retail Same-Store-Sales
Fri. - None of note
There are a number of economic reports of note and several significant corporate earnings reports scheduled for release this week.
Economic reports for the week include:
Mon. - None of note
Tues. - Consumer Confidence
Wed. - MBA Mortgage Applications, ADP Employment Change, Advance 4Q GDP, Advance 4Q Personal Consumption, Advance 4Q GDP Price Index, Employment Cost Index, Construction Spending, Chicago Purchasing Manager, FOMC Rate Decision
Thur. - Challenger Job Cuts, Personal Income, Personal Spending, PCE Deflator, Initial Jobless Claims, Pending Home Sales, ISM Manufacturing, ISM Prices Paid, Total Vehicle Sales
Fri. - Change in Non-farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Change in Manufacturing Payrolls, Average Hourly Earnings, Factory Orders, Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence
Some of the more noteworthy companies that release quarterly earnings this week are:
Mon. - Cummins Inc.(CMI), JDA Software(JDAS), Mattel Inc.(MAT), Phelps Dodge(PD), Schering-Plough(SGP), Tyson Foods(TSN), Verizon Communications(VZ), Zimmer Holdings(ZMH)
Tues. - 3M Co(MMM), Aflac Inc.(AFL), Allstate Corp.(ALL), Apollo Group(APOL), Black & Decker(BDK), Burger King Holdings(BKC), Chicago Merc(CME), Chubb Corp.(CB), Colgate-Palmolive(CL), Corinthian Colleges(COCO), Countrywide Financial(CFC), Diebold Inc.(DBD), Flextronics(FLEX), General Motors(GM), Illinois Tool Works(ITW), Kellogg Co(K), Lexmark Intl(LXK), MBIA Inc.(MBI), Merck & Co.(MRK), Pepsi Bottling(PBG), Pilgrim’s Pride(PPC), Procter & Gamble(PG), Safeco Corp.(SFC), SanDisk Corp.(SNDK), United Parcel Service(UPS), US Air(LCC), Wyeth(WYE)
Wed. - Allergan Inc.(AGN), Altria Group(MO), Armor Holdings(AH), Boeing Co.(BA), Constellation Energy(CEG), Dominion Resources(D), Eastman Kodak(EK), Eli Lilly(LLY), Estee Lauder(EL), Gilead Sciences(GILD), Google Inc.(GOOG), Hilton Hotels(HLT), Ingersoll-Rand(IR), JB Hunt(JBHT), JDS Uniphase(JDSU), Kraft Foods(KFT), L-3 Communications(LLL), Microchip Tech(MCHP), MicroStrategy(MSTR), Murphy Oil(MUR), Nymex Holdings(NMX), Pulte Homes(PHM), Starbucks(SBUX), Time Warner Inc.(TWX), Tractor Supply(TSCO), VeriSign(VRSN), Xcel Energy(XEL)
Thur. - Amazon.com(AMZN), American Standard(ASD), Anheuser-Busch(BUD), Apache Corp.(APA), Archer-Daniels(ADM), Avid Tech(AVID), Boston Scientific(BSX), CA Inc.(CA), Celgene Corp.(CELG), Cerner Corp.(CERN), Clorox Co.(CLX), Comcast Corp.(CMCSA), CVS Corp.(CVS), Dolby Labs(DLB), Electronic Arts(ERTS), Exxon Mobil(XOM), Goodrich Corp.(GR), Intuitive Surgical(ISRG), JetBlue(JBLU), Marathon Oil(MRO), Monster Worldwide(MNST), Raytheon Cos(RTN), Royal Gold(RGLD), Sabre Holdings(TSG), St Paul(STA), Starwood Hotels(HOT), Under Armour(UA), Valero Energy(VLO), YRC Worldwide(YRCW)
Fri. - American Axle(AXL), Arch Coal(ACI), Equity Office Properties(EOP), Gannett Co.(GCI), ITT Corp.(ITT), Medimmune(MEDI), Moody’s Corp.(MCO), NYSE Group(NYX), Royal Caribbean(RCL), Ryder System(R), Sara Lee(SLE), THQ Inc.(THQI), Wendy’s Intl(WEN), Whirlpool Corp.(WHR)
Other events that have market-moving potential this week include:
Mon. - Wachovia Healthcare Conference
Tue. - Wachovia Healthcare Conference, Citigroup Financial Services Conference
Wed. - Citigroup Financial Services Conference, Wachovia Healthcare Conference
Thur. - Raymond James Growth Airline Conference, Retail Same-Store-Sales
Fri. - None of note
BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week mixed as mostly positive economic data, mostly positive earnings reports, buyout speculation, a stronger US dollar and constructive Fed comments offsets profit-taking, higher long-term rates and shorting. My trading indicators are giving mostly bullish signals and the Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.
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