Friday, May 18, 2007

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices
S&P 500 1,522.75 +1.12%
DJIA 13,556.53 +1.73%
NASDAQ 2,558.45 -.15%
Russell 2000 823.66 -.71%
Wilshire 5000 15,287.47 +.81%
Russell 1000 Growth 597.42 +.66%
Russell 1000 Value 878.40 +1.28%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 746.07 +.97%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 1,065.28 +1.23%
Morgan Stanley Technology 609.89 +.03%
Transports 5,213.71 +.92%
Utilities 533.38 +1.30%
MSCI Emerging Markets 126.30 +1.23%

Sentiment/Internals
NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 75,729 -.21%
Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index +190 +8.6%
Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 50.0 +30.2%
CFTC Oil Large Speculative Longs 192,274 +2.0%
Total Put/Call .97 +3.2%
NYSE Arms .59 -4.8%
Volatility(VIX) 12.76 -1.54%
ISE Sentiment 130.0 +6.56%
AAII % Bulls 38.4 -10.4%
AAII % Bears 36.6 -14.6%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 64.87 +4.12%
Reformulated Gasoline 240.19 +2.67%
Natural Gas 7.92 +.62%
Heating Oil 191.62 +1.68%
Gold 661.70 -1.59%
Base Metals 263.93 -4.84%
Copper 332.40 -7.83%

Economy
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.80% +13 basis points
4-Wk MA of Jobless Claims 305,500 -3.8%
Average 30-year Mortgage Rate 6.21% +6 basis points
Weekly Mortgage Applications 675.50 -.76%
Weekly Retail Sales +2.70%
Nationwide Gas $3.12/gallon +.08/gallon
US Heating Demand Next 7 Days 18.0% below normal
ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index 142.70 +.07%
US Dollar Index 82.16 +.10%
CRB Index 313.17 +.66%

Leading Sectors
Oil Service +4.7%
Road&Rail +3.3%
Telecom +2.9%
Tobacco +2.0%
Wireless +1.6%

Lagging Sectors
Networking -1.5%
Semis -1.7%
Alternative Energy -2.0%
Gold -2.6%
REITs -6.14%

One-Week High-Volume Gainers

One-Week High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

DJIA Hitting Another Record High into Final Hour on Positive Earnings, Buyout Speculation and Rising Economic Optimism

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher into the final hour on gains in my Retail longs, Medical longs and I-Banking longs. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is positive as the advance/decline line is higher, most sectors are gaining and volume is above average. Goldman Sachs (GS) is hitting a new high today, rising another 1.4%. Its market capitalization is surpassing the $100 billion mark for the first time. I don't think it is too late to buy this stock as a meaningful pullback is likely from much higher levels. I think the stock can rise another 20%-30% before year-end as the bull market continues and earnings exceed estimates, prompting multiple expansion. I remain long GS. Gasoline demand is decelerating even as weather has improved the last few weeks, which indicates high prices are having an impact. Retail stocks are substantially outperforming today after better-than-expected earnings reports from (KSS), (JWN) and (JCP). I continue to believe the group has seen their lows for the year. I expect US stocks to trade modestly higher into the close from current levels on short-covering, lower energy prices, buyout speculation and more economic optimism.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
- The San Francisco Chronicle plans to cut a quarter of its newsroom jobs to stem losses, citing a union official.
- Peter Hickson, global strategist for basic materials at UBS AG, sees copper prices falling further as Chinese demand slows.
- Microsoft’s(MSFT) plan to buy AQuantive(AQNT) for $6 billion increases the likelihood that the software maker will also buy Yahoo! Inc.(YHOO), Goldman Sachs(GS) analyst Anthony Noto said.
- The People’s Bank of China today raised its one-year benchmark lending rate by .18 percentage point and its one-year deposit rate by .27 percentage point.
- Goldman Sachs(GS), the highest-earning securities firm in Wall Street history, set a record today when its market value crossed $100 billion.
- Odyssey Marine Exploration(OMR), a company that searches for sunken treasure, said it may have recovered the biggest collection of silver and gold coins ever salvaged from a shipwreck.
- Shares of Trump Entertainment(TRMP) had their biggest jump in almost two years after the company said it is considering takeover offers.
- Gasoline futures are falling for the first time in four days despite ConocoPhillips(COP) saying it would idle a third unit at its plant in Borger, Texas, for “repairs.”
- Sugar is falling again in NY, capping the biggest weekly decline this year, on concern that a global surplus will widen as demand fails to keep pace with rising supply from India and Brazil, the world’s largest producers.

Wall Street Journal:
- UniCredit SpA is about to make an all-stock offer for Capitalia SpA, to create Europe’s second-biggest bank after HSBC Holdings Plc.

NY Times:
- The pet food contamination that sickened thousands of cats and dogs in the US is leading to pressure on China to improve the safety of its foods and other exports.
- House Democrats scrapped a plan that would have tightened congressional ethics rules by extending a one-year ban on lobbying by former lawmakers or staff members. Democratic leaders in the House faced a rank-and-file revolt over the issue, which would crimp their ability to cash in on their government service for lobbying paychecks.

Sparkspread.com:
- PPL Corp.(PPL) is considering a bid for Mirant(MIR), citing two industry sources.

USA Today:
- US drivers are logging fewer miles for the first time in 26 years, in part because of record gasoline prices, new public transit systems and a shift in demographics, citing federal highway data. While the number of US drivers has increased by more than 1 million since 2005, miles driven in February fell 1.9% from a year earlier, citing figures from the Federal Highway Administration.

Financial Times:
- John Negroponte, the deputy US secretary of state, said terrorist activities will spread widely if the US withdraws from Iraq too soon.
- Controversies over Blackstone Group LP leveraged buyout firm probably won’t slow its proposed IPO.
- US companies raised more funds through private placements last year than IPOs last year for the first time ever.

Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung:
- Germany expects a weekend meeting of Group of Eight finance chiefs to make progress toward endorsing a code of conduct for hedge funds.

Kommersant:
- Journalists at Russia’s main radio news provider quit en masse yesterday to protest censorship after management banned coverage of opposition movements, citing a reporter.

Nikkei English News:
- Nintendo Co. Ltd. President Satoru Iwata said the world’s biggest maker of handheld video-game players may pursue more acquisitions to gain access to technologies that can help its product development.

Market News International:- China’s government will allow faster gains in the yuan this year, as long as the economy doesn’t suffer.

Consumer Confidence Improves

- Preliminary Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence for May rose to 88.7 versus estimates of 86.2 and a reading of 87.1 in April.

BOTTOM LINE: Confidence among US consumers unexpectedly rose in May as strength in the labor and stock markets helped overcome high gasoline prices. The Expectations component of the index rose to 79 this month from 75.9 the prior month. The Current Conditions component fell slightly to 103.8 from 104.6 the prior month. The average price of gas rose to $3.13/gallon yesterday, about .30/gallon more than the average the prior month. I continue to believe consumer confidence readings will head back towards cycle highs later this year as stocks rise further, housing sales stabilize at relatively high levels, interest rates remain low, inflation decelerates further, gas prices fall substantially and the job market remains healthy.

Links of Interest

Market Snapshot
Detailed Market Summary
Quick Summary
Economic Commentary
Movers & Shakers
Today in IBD
NYSE OrderTrac
I-Watch Sector Overview
NYSE Unusual Volume
NASDAQ Unusual Volume
Hot Spots
NASDAQ 100 Heatmap
DJIA Quick Charts
Chart Toppers
Option Dragon
Intraday Chart/Quote

Thursday, May 17, 2007

Friday Watch

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Precision Castparts Corp.(PCP), a maker of metal forgings used in jet engines, may replace MedImmune Inc.(MEDI) in the S&P 500 Index, according to an analyst at Wachovia Capital Markets LLC.
- Bill Gross, manager of the world’s biggest bond fund, is sticking to his call that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year.
- The yen headed for a fourth weekly decline against the US dollar as signs of weakening growth in Japan are likely to keep the Bank of Japan from lifting borrowing costs anytime soon.
- Copper prices fell to their lowest in eight weeks in Shanghai on concern that rising production and inventories in China, the world’s biggest consumer of the metal, may signal a glut in the market. The world’s copper surplus will rise to 520,000 metric tons next year from 280,000 tons this year, the Lisbon-based International Copper Study Group said.
- Crude oil was little changed near a three-week high in NY after rising more than $2 a barrel yesterday on speculation refiners won’t restore below-average US gasoline stockpiles before the summer demand peaks.

Wall Street Journal:
- General Electric(GE) is close to selling its plastics unit for about $11 billion. Saudi Basic Industries, known as Sabic, and Basell, a unit of Access Industries, are the remaining suitors after a long auction process.

Business Week:
- Current and former employees at Wall Street firms including Bear Stearns(BSC), Morgan Stanley(MS), Goldman Sachs(GS) and Merrill Lynch(MER) are being investigated over alleged kickbacks involving short sellers.

Financial Times:
- Britons bought goods worth $6.9 over the Internet last month, an increase of 55% compared with April 2006, citing Interactive Media in Retail Group. Interactive Media had expected UK internet sales to increase 39% this year.

Financial Express:
- The Tata Group is in talks with JC Penney(JCP) and Woolworths Ltd. for its retail business. Infiniti Retail, a fully owned unit of Tata Sons Ltd., may seek a technical alliance with JC Penney for its apparel segment and with Woolworths for its supermarket division.

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Citigroup:

- Rated (GET) Buy, target $68.
- Raised (RVBD) to Buy, target raised to $52.
- Raised (VZ) to Buy from Sell, target raised to $48.
- Reiterated Buy on (KYPH), target $54.
- Reiterated Buy on (AKAM), target $68.

CSFB:
- Investors should use options to bet the US dollar will extend gains against the British currency as US economic growth accelerates.

Business Week:
- Morton’s Restaurant Group(MRT), a steakhouse chain, is benefiting from boardroom business. The chain receives about 20% of sales from private rooms tailored to function as ad hoc boardrooms.
- VeriChip Corp.(CHIP) shares may almost triple to $12 in a year as more hospitals and doctors use the company’s product, citing William Woodward of Anthem Venture Partners.
- OfficeMax(OMX) could be acquired by Staples(SPLS) or Office Deport(ODP). The top two competitors only have a 20% share of the office supply market, and buying OfficeMax would add to either company’s earnings with a buyout price in the mid-$50 range, citing Jack Cunningham, CIO at J&W Seligman.

Night Trading
Asian Indices are -.75% to +.25% on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.03%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.01%.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Conference Calendar
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule

Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- None

Upcoming Splits
- (IEX) 3-for-2

Economic Releases
10:00 am EST
- The Preliminary Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence reading for May is estimated to fall to 86.2 versus 87.1 in April.

Other Potential Market Movers
- The BMO Capital North American REIT Conference could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by metal stocks in the region. I expect US equities to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.