Tuesday, December 04, 2007

Wednesday Watch

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Powerchip Semiconductor rose the most in three years in Taipei trading, leading gains in memory-chip makers, after a report said industry prices were recovering. Powerchip, Taiwan’s biggest maker of DRAMs climbed by the daily 6.9% limit, its largest gain since October 2004. Nanya Technology, Taiwan’s second-largest memory-chip maker, and Elpida Memory, the biggest in Japan, also advanced. “A probable price rebound has finally appeared,” Dramexchange, Asia’s largest spot market for memory chips, wrote in a report.
- Moore Capital Management’s Canadian hedge-fund unit, run by former Amaranth Advisors LLC traders, lost 15% in November on stock and convertible-bond bets, two people with knowledge of the firm said.
- Credit Suisse Group plans to launch a product to replicate hedge fund performance with more liquid securities by the first half of 2008, said Oliver Schupp, a managing director in the firm’s alternative investments business.
- Federal regulators and US lenders are focusing on five years as the duration of an interest-rate freeze on subprime mortgages.
- US Senate Banking Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd called on Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson to answer questions about Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s role in the collapse of the subprime mortgage market.

- The yen is falling against 13 of the world’s 16 most-actively traded currencies on speculation Japanese investors will use their year-end bonuses to buy higher-yielding assets abroad.

NY Times:
- Activision’s(ATVI) Chief Looks for Gaming’s Next Moves.

MarketWatch.com:
- The Stockpickers: Fidelity growth-stock fund manager rides Google(GOOG), Research in Motion(RIMM), Cisco(CSCO).
- Once a bear market begins, it’s too late for ‘bear’ funds to help. Proof of the stock market’s ugliness in November started arriving in my email box a week ago. That’s when a slew of investors started asking about which bear-market funds to buy now so that they can make a fast buck during the downturn.

BusinessWeek.com:
- China’s iPhone Fans Find a Way. As Beijing consumers snap up hacked versions of the popular phone, Apple bides its time in striking a deal with authorized cellular operators.

CNNMoney.com:
- Bill Miller’s simple plan for Citi.
- Saudis may Bigfoot OPEC and hike output. Analysts say the cartel may confound expectations and not boost production when it meets Wednesday, but more oil may flow to world markets anyway.

- RIP Facebook?

CNBC.com:
- Commentary: Why Sovereign Funds Help Global Economy.

USA Today.com:
- Daimler sees high demand for new Smart micro car in US.

Financial Times:
- China is to extend a clampdown on new bank lending into next year because of fears that rising inflation could become unmanageable, according to bankers, officials and economists.

China Daily:
- China’s government introduced new measures to combat land hoarding by developers and increase the supply of housing.

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
- None of note

Night Trading
Asian Indices are -.25% to +.50% on average.
S&P 500 futures +.35%.
NASDAQ 100 futures +.24%.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Pre-market Stock Quote/Chart
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
WSJ Intl Markets Performance
Commodity Movers
Top 25 Stories

Top 20 Business Stories
Today in IBD
In Play
Bond Ticker
Economic Preview/Calendar
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Upgrades/Downgrades
Rasmussen Business/Economy Polling
CNBC Guest Schedule

Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (DSW)/.35
- (NOVL)/.04
- (CMTL)/.50
- (BTH)/.12
- (AZPN)/.11
- (CVI)/.13

Upcoming Splits
- (CAM) 2-for-1

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST

- Final 3Q Non-farm Productivity is estimated to rise 5.9% versus a prior estimate of a 4.9% gain.
- Final 3Q Unit Labor Costs are estimated to fall 1.2% versus a prior estimate of a .2% decline.

10:00 am EST
- Factory Orders for October are estimated unch. versus a .2% gain in September.
- ISM Non-Manufacturing for November is estimated at 55.0 versus 55.8 in October.

Other Potential Market Movers
- The ADP Employment report, Challenger Job Cut report, weekly EIA energy inventory report, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, (XLNX) Mid-Quarter Update, BOE Policy Meeting, (BMY) investment meeting, (OREX) analyst luncheon, (ATO) analyst meeting, (XEL) investor meeting, (FTE) investor day, ThinkEquity Alternative Energy Forum, Wachovia Global Real Estate Conference, Lehman Brothers Global Tech Conference, BMO Capital Markets Healthcare Conference, Citigroup Basic Material Conference and UBS Global Media Conference could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and mining stocks in the region. I expect US equities to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Finish Lower, Led Down by Financials and Homebuilders

Evening Review
Market Performance Summary
WSJ Data Center
Sector Performance
ETF Performance
Style Performance
Commodity Movers
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Commentary

After-hours Movers

After-hours Stock Quote

In Play

Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Weakness in Financials, Homebuilders

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly lower into the final hour on losses in my Medical longs and Retail longs. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. The overall tone of the market is negative today as the advance/decline line is lower, sector performance is mostly negative and volume is around average. Investor anxiety is above average. Today’s overall market action is mildly bearish. Oil is falling again today despite dollar weakness. It is interesting to note that OPEC said today that production only fell by 125,000 bpd in November despite a 400,000 bpd cut by the UAE due to maintenance. Saudi production rose 125,000 bpd last month. Weekly retail same-store-sales rose 2.4% versus 2.4% the prior week and up from 1.4% in July. Today’s report that CEOs have become more optimistic of late corresponds with the recent surge in insider stock buying. There is now a 48% chance for a 50 basis point cut at the Fed meeting next week and a 52% chance for a 25 basis point cut. I am currently leaning towards a 50, depending on this Friday’s jobs report. A 50 basis point cut and likely better economic data over the next few weeks should lead to another surge in stocks, especially the more economically sensitive ones. I expect US stocks to trade mixed into the close from current levels as profit-taking offsets short-covering.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
- Abby Joseph Cohen, the Goldman Sachs Group strategist, predicted the S&P 500 will rise 14% by the end of next year.
- Dell Inc.(DELL) will resume its stock-buyback program this week with a $10 billion repurchase, the first since it restated four years of earnings.
- AutoZone(AZO), the largest US retailer of automobile parts, reported first-quarter profit that rose more than analysts estimated on the biggest sales increase in six quarters.
- Legg Mason’s Bill Miller said financial stocks are the cheapest since 1990 and that consumer stocks are very cheap.
- Prudential Financial(PRU) rose in NY trading after saying its subprime holdings will keep their value and the company will repurchase at least $3.5 billion of stock in both 2009 and 2010.
- Crude oil is falling more than $1/bbl. on speculation OPEC may increase production at its meeting tomorrow and worries over decelerating global demand.
- The Canadian dollar fell to a 10-week low after the central bank unexpectedly cut interest rates to support an economic expansion threatened by slowing exports and a decline in the availability of credit.
- Markit Group, the data provider that bought the iTraxx and CDX credit-default swap index owners last month, has agreed to buy electronic trade processor SwapsWire.

NY Times:
- MySpace, the social-networking site owned by News Corp.(NWS/A), is starting a new program for musicians to sell live performances of their material.

USAToday.com:
- Hillary Rodham Clinton and Rudy Giuliani lost support among US Democrats and Republicans, respectively, during the past month while retaining their lead over political rivals, a USA Today/Gallup Poll found. Clinton’s support fell 11 percentage points since early November and Giuliani’s declined by 9, the poll found.

Reuters:
- CEOs take brighter view of economy: survey.

Financial Times:
- Lennar’s(LEN) sale of an 80% in 11,000 houses to Morgan Stanley at a low price may be a sign that the housing slump is heading toward resolution.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

Small-cap Value (-.98%)

Sector Underperformers:

Oil Tankers (-2.59%), I-Banks (-2.49%) and REITs (-2.06%)

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

PVH, PAY, INFN, ISLE, STKL, DISH, LAYN and SIRT