Monday, January 28, 2008

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
- US stocks rose, extending the market’s first weekly gain this year, as odds increased that the Fed will cut its benchmark lending rate by half a percentage point this week.
- The risk of SLM Corp.(SLM) defaulting on its debt fell to the lowest in almost two weeks after the biggest US student lender received $31 billion in new bank financing needed to keep the company running.
- Subprime-Loan Contracts May Rally on Fed Cuts, JPMorgan(JPM) Says.
- How to survive the fortune you made shorting subprime.
- Intel Corp.(INTC), the world’s biggest computer-chip maker, will buy renewable energy certificates form solar power generators and wind farms equal to the electricity needed to power 130,000 average US homes a year.

- NASDAQ Short Interest by Industries. Total Nasdaq short interest surged 7.24% during the first two weeks of January.
- CME Group(CME), the world’s largest futures exchange, is in talks to acquire Nymex Holding(NMX) for more than $11 billion to gain the biggest energy-trading market.
- Current Media(CRTM), the television new network co-founded by former US VP Al Gore, plans to raise as much as $100 million in an IPO.

Wall Street Journal:
- AMD(AMD) Graphics Card May Test Nvidia(NVDA).

NY Times:
- LeapFrog(LF) Hopes for Next Hit With Interactive Reading Toy.

Reuters:
- The rally in sugar prices is likely to end because of a record cane crop coming out of Brazil and high global stockpiles, citing the International Sugar Organization.
-
A hefty Federal Reserve rate cut and a stimulus plan that would expand the availability of home loans may reinvigorate the beleaguered U.S. housing market and help the broader economy along with it.

Financial Times:
- French CEOs are best paid in Europe. Total US pay for CEOs is two and a half times that of European CEOs, but most of that is in bonuses and long-term incentives. Basic salaries of European CEOs on average exceed US base salaries by 20%.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

Large-cap Growth (+.72%)

Sector Underperformers:

Restaurants (-4.39%), Software (-.55%) and Defense(-.33%)

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

ADS, MCD, FDG, MOH, MELI and YRCW

New Home Sales Below Estimates

- New Home Sales for December fell to 604K versus estimates of 647K and 634K in November.

BOTTOM LINE: Purchases of new homes in the US fell more-than-expected in December, Bloomberg reported. The median price of a new home fell to $219,200 during the month. At the current sales pace, inventories rose to 9.6 months worth of new homes. The average 30-year mortgage rate has plunged 70 basis points over the last month to a historically low 5.48%. It has also dropped 127 basis points from the middle of last year. Fed fund futures now imply an 84% chance for a 50 basis point cut at the upcoming meeting and a 14% chance for a 25 basis point cut. I continue to believe home sales will surprise on the upside over the coming months on pent-up demand, less economic pessimism and very low rates.

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

Large-cap Value (+.91%)

Sector Outperformers:

Airlines (+1.96%), Retail (+1.56%) and Banks (+1.58%)

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

WMS, TPL, LNY, ACV, NMX, KWD, BKD, KTC, ACOR, MATR, MDVN, SILC, PTRY, AUXL, POOL, ATHR, ABFS, JRCC, ZINC, ENOC, SPWR, RGLD, MASI, PRXL, ICFI, LPHI, CPTS, TKLC, VCBI and CSTR

Links of Interest

Market Snapshot Commentary
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Sector Performance
WSJ Data Center
Top 20 Biz Stories

IBD Breaking News

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In Play

NYSE Unusual Volume

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Sunday, January 27, 2008

Monday Watch

Weekend Headlines
Bloomberg:

- President Bush said the bipartisan economic stimulus package worked out by lawmakers and his administration will provide direct tax relief to working Americans and urged Congress to pass it as quickly as possible.
- Deutsche Ttelekom AG’s T-Mobile unit has sold more than 70,000 iPhones in Germany since introducing the combination handset and digital music player in November, CEO Obermann said. Subscribers spent three times as much as other T-Mobile clients on average every month, and more than half of the customers are new uses.
- After the best annual start for Treasuries since 1998, investors are betting the highest-rated mortgage and corporate bonds will outperform as the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates.
- Democratic Senator Ed Kennedy will announce his endorsement of Illinois Senator Barack Obama’s presidential campaign tomorrow.

Wall Street Journal:
- State Street(STT), Franklin Resources(BEN) and Janus Capital(JNS) are among the money managers vying for potentially billions of dollars in fees to manage sovereign wealth investments.
- Obama Scores South Carolina Win, Defeating Clinton by Wide Margin.
- Tony Blair cautioned US presidential candidates not to lock themselves into damaging protectionist or isolationist policies they could have a tough time walking away from once in office.

Forbes.com:
- America’s 25 Fastest-Growing Tech Companies.

NY Times:
- Investor sentiment suggests that the bulk of the stock market’s decline is now behind us.
- French Bank Offers Details of Big Loss.
- The Coming Wave of Gadgets That Listen and Obey.
- Amazon’s(AMZN) new device could turn out to be the iPod of the written word.

CNBC.com:
- Paulson Pushes Senate for Stimulus Deal. President Bush’s chief negotiator on an economic aid deal said Sunday the Senate should quickly get behind a plan or risk drawing the resentment of a frustrated public.
- Warren Buffett Continues to Snap Up Burlington Northern(BNI) Shares.
- Nikkei Battered Since 2007 Peak, Dow More Resilient.
- S&P 500 Earnings Scorecard: 73% Have Met Or Exceeded Expectations To Date.

TheStreet.com:
- Top NYSE Short-Squeeze Plays.
- Juniper(JNPR) Sends Strong Signals for Cisco(CSCO).

Google Trends:
- There has been a parabolic spike in Google searches that include the word ‘recession.’ The largest volume of Google searches that include the word are coming from Washington, DC and New York, New York. (graph)

MSNBC.com:
- Price of gas falls 9 cents in last two weeks. National average for gallon of regular was $2.98 Friday.

Business Week:
- Super Sunday generates major bucks for all involved, from its host network to snackmakers, HDTV sellers, and especially the game’s host city.
- Second-year MBA students looking for full-time jobs appear to be doing as well as, if not better than, their counterparts last year, with many schools reporting increased recruiting, more job offers, and higher salaries for this year’s grads.

USA Today:
- Ford Escape plug-in prototype shows potential.
- Midsize commercial shipyards across the country can’t find enough skilled, experienced workers.

CNNMoney.com:
- 25 top-paying companies.
- 100 Best Companies to Work For By State.
- From Microsoft’s(MSFT) lofty perch, no sign of a slowdown.

Financial Times:
- Lawyers for Jerome Kerviel, the French trader accused by Societe Generale of massive fraud, hit back at the bank on Sunday, accusing it of creating a “smokescreen” to divert attention from other losses.

TimesOnline:
- As many as 10 European-based hedge funds halted redemptions after losses prompted investors to seek to withdraw their cash, citing a London prime broker.
- The BMW Hydrogen 7.

Oberver:
- Vale Is ‘Days Away’ From Agreed $80 Billion Bid for Xstrata Bid.

Sunday Telegraph:
- Companies affiliated with the Qatar Investment Authority are considering the purchase of a $3 billion stake in Credit Suisse Group.
- Hedge funds: The new global super powers.

Sunday Times:
- Alan Greenspan said there’s no evidence the US is in a recession.

Guardian:
- JPMorgan(JPM) CEO sees end in sight to housing downturn.

Le Figaro:
- European Aeronautic, Defense & Space Co., the parent of planemaker Airbus SAS, must make one acquisition in the US in 2008.
- Groupe Bollore, the investment company controlled by French billionaire Vincent Bollore, will invest $293 million to build a plan that will produce batteries for an electric car designed by Pininfarina SpA.

AFP:
- Iraqi security forces are recruiting about 9,000 militiamen to serve with the police and army after they joined the US military in fighting al-Qaeda.

La Nacion:
-
Pan American Energy LLC, an Argentine oil and gas company partly owned by BP Plc, has made a new oil discovery in the south of the country. The new reserve is the largest discovered in Argentina in recent years and contains sufficient oil to double the output of Chubut province, which in 2007 totaled 60 million barrels.

Al-Alam al-Yom:
- Egypt’s daily oil production may soon reach 700,000 barrels. Egypt currently produces 670,000 barrels per day.

Iranian News Agency:
- Russia made a seventh delivery of nuclear fuel for Iran’s first reactor today, citing the Iran Atomic Energy Production and Development Company.

Weekend Recommendations
Barron's:
- Made positive comments on (HP).
- Made negative comments on (SYX).

Citigroup:
- Maintained Buy on (CAT), target $86.

Night Trading
Asian indices are -3.25% to -1.0% on avg.
S&P 500 futures -.68%.
NASDAQ 100 futures -.81%.

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Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
- (SWK)/1.10
- (ENR)/2.22
- (HAL)/.69
- (BDK)/1.03
- (FPL)/.67
- (GLW)/.39
- (SYY)/.42
- (MCD)/.70
- (VZ)/.62
- (TSN)/.04
- (ATHR)/.30
- (AXP)/.71
- (SNDK)/.65
- (VMW)/.24
- (PAY)/.37
- (XMSR)/-.63
- (OSG)/.63

Upcoming Splits
- (BTJ) 3-for-2
- (KWK) 2-for-1

Economic Data
10:00 am EST

- New Home Sales for December are estimated to fall to 645K versus 647K in November.

Other Potential Market Movers
- The (YRCW) analyst meeting could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are sharply lower, weighed down by financial and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.