Thursday, February 07, 2008

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
- US stocks rose, led by consumer companies, after JC Penney(JCP) and Gap Inc.(GPS) said profits will exceed analysts’ estimates.
- The euro fell to the lowest level in more than two weeks against the US dollar as ECB President Trichet said European growth may slow.
- President Bush said the US Senate must promptly vote on his backlog of some 200 nominees, including three for the Federal Reserve Board, and stop treating them like “political pawns.”
- GSO Capital Partners LP, the hedge fund being bought by Blackstone Group LP, hired Najib Canaan and a trading team from Brevan Howard Asset Management LLP to invest in mortgages and bonds hit by the credit-market contraction.

- Bank of America(BAC) increased its stake in Ambac Financial(ABK) from 5.1% at the end of September to 7.06%.
- Copper is surging 3.7% as falling inventories quelled concern that demand for the metal may slump.
- US Treasuries declined as demand was weaker than expected at the government’s $9 billion auction of 30-year bonds, which drew the lowest yield on record.

Wall Street Journal:
- Lehman’s(LEH) Harris Tops List of Forecasters.
- The European Central Bank faces a tough task when it reviews interest rates today, not only because of the economic slowdown but also because hedge funds are trying to exploit disparities within the European Union.

- Actively managed ETFs, soon to become reality, may not offer the low costs and tax-efficiency that have been ETF’s biggest attractions.
- Alcatel-Lucent SA(ALU), the telephone equipment maker that saw its shares drop 60% in 2007, may be a good buy as an industry price war subsides.

NY Times:
- Wal-Mart Will Expand In-Store Medical Clinics.

LA Times:
- Yahoo(YHOO) said to step up talks with Google(GOOG).

Red Herring.com:
- Half of GM(GM) Cars Will Be running on ethanol by 2012. Start-up biofuel company Coskata Inc., part-owned by GM, said it has formed a strategic alliance with ICM Inc. to build a commercial plan to mass produce cellulose-based ethanol. The plant is due to open in late 2010.

Forbes:
- Some 70% of all equity volume is driven by computer models that suddenly trigger a surge in buy or sell orders that are causing the fragmentation, volatility and use of hidden trading venues.

USA Today:
- Al-Qaeda Shifts Iraq Tactics to Salvage Image.

Economic Times:
- Deutsche Bank is on the prowl for acquisitions, its CEO said on Thursday, after it dodged the subprime disaster that hit rivals.

Asharq al-Awsat:

- Saudi Arabian investors have $400 billion in investments in the US, making it the number one destination for their money, citing a report from the Riyadh-based Saudi British Bank. The US funds represent 34% of the $1.2 trillion that Saudis have invested abroad. Saudis diversified their investments away from the US after the terrorist attacks on Sept. 11.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

Mid-cap Value (+.26%)

Sector Underperformers:

Drugs (-1.57%), HMOs (-1.08%) and Computer Hardware (-1.08%)

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

MYL, IAR, GSK, ASF, PRU, AHG, BIOD, EXBD, TLEO, UFPI, CHUX, SFLY, MDTH, JDSU, BG and AZN

Initial Jobless Claims Fall, Pending Home Sales Decline

- Initial Jobless Claims for this week fell to 356K versus estimates of 342K and 378K the prior week.

- Continuing Claims rose to 2785K versus estimates of 2715K and 2710K prior.

- Pending Home Sales for December fell 1.5% versus estimates of a 1.0% decline and a downwardly revised 3.0% decline in November.

BOTTOM LINE: The number of Americans filing first-time claims for unemployment benefits fell this week, Bloomberg reported. The four-week moving average of jobless claims rose to 335,000 versus 326,500 the prior week. The unemployment rate among those eligible for benefits, which tracks the US Jobless claims are still at levels suggesting sluggish growth, not recession. I expect claims to move back down to more healthy levels in the second half of the year. unemployment rate, rose to 2.1%, which is still historically low, versus 2.0% the prior week.

The number of Americans signing contracts to buy previously owned homes fell more than forecast in December, Bloomberg reported. Purchases fell 3.1% in the West, 3% in the South and 1.7% in the Northeast. They jumped 3.4% in the Midwest. I still expect home sales to surprise on the upside as we entire the spring on pent-up demand, lower prices and the plunge in mortgage rates.

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

Small-cap Growth (+.24%)

Sector Outperformers:

Airlines (+3.38%), Retail (+2.23%) and I-Banks (+1.03%)

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

NSR, CME, IAT, UTI, LH, ENS, KCE, ICE, POWI, DBTK, HUBG, PLCE, NSIT, TICC, MKSI, RTSX, ANDE, AKAM, ADVS, ECOL, ELON, JJSF, OSIS, MFLO, PPDI, EMKR, URBN, MWIV, CTRN, JCP, GAIA, PEP, KSS, ACL, FTE, IIT, MET, ELP and PFG

Links of Interest

Market Snapshot Commentary
Market Performance Summary
Style Performance
Sector Performance
WSJ Data Center
Top 20 Biz Stories

IBD Breaking News

Movers & Shakers

Upgrades/Downgrades

In Play

NYSE Unusual Volume

NASDAQ Unusual Volume

Hot Spots

Option Dragon

NASDAQ 100 Heatmap

DJIA Quick Charts

Chart Toppers

Intraday Chart/Quote

Dow Jones Hedge Fund Indexes

Wednesday, February 06, 2008

Thursday Watch

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- The euro fell for a third day against the US dollar and the yen on speculation European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet will signal borrowing costs may need to be cut to bolster growth.
- MBIA Inc.(MBI), plans to raise an additional $750 million by selling about 50.3 million common shares, bolstering capital in an attempt to retail its AAA rating.
- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the central bank is “closely monitoring developments” with bond insurers, including the potential effects of ratings downgrades for banks.
- Cisco Systems(CSCO) forecast third-quarter sales that fell short of analysts’ estimates, spurring a 7.4% drop in the stock.

- Fadel Gheit, Managing Director of Oppenheimer, Says Oil Market ‘Bubble’ May End.
- Robert Toll Says Housing Market ‘Might Be Bottoming’: (video).
- US mortgage servicers helped 545,000 subprime borrowers stay in their homes in the second half of last year by modifying loans or setting up repayment plans.
- Ethanol in Chicago and three sport markets declined after a government report showed that gasoline inventories rose to a nine-year high.

Wall Street Journal:
- Airlines Merger Talks May Lead to Double Wedding.
- Candidates Mobilize As Race Grinds On.

MarketWatch.com:
- Investment banks say capital is still available. Merrill, Lehman give update on exposure to bond insurers.
- AT&T(T) expanding high-speed wireless network. Move likely foreshadows introduction of updated iPhone.

CNBC.com:
- Recession Nerves = Great Buying Opportunity.

NY Times:
- Clinton Lent Campaign $5 Million, May Lend More.

IBD:
- EBay(EBAY) Could gain In A Yahoo Acquisition.

Financial Times:
- The SEC is looking at whether Societe Generale violated US securities laws as it unwound and revealed its loss from Jerome Kerviel’s allegedly rogue derivatives trades.
- S&P unveils ratings overhaul.

National Post:
- Buffett ‘Huge Bull’ on US Economy.

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Citigroup:

- Maintained Buy on (WXS), target $49.

Night Trading
Asian Indices are -1.0% to unch. on average.
S&P 500 futures -.65%.
NASDAQ 100 futures -1.53%.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
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Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
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Top 25 Stories

Top 20 Business Stories
Today in IBD
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Rasmussen Business/Economy Polling
CNBC Guest Schedule

Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (DO)/1.67
- (ASF)/.48
- (MDC)/-.65
- (MLNM)/.13
- (TBL)/.50
- (DHI)/-.45
- (EXPE)/.32
- (IP)/.64
- (LH)/1.00
- (AN)/.32
- (ENER)//-.13
- (COV)/.56
- (MCO)/.47
- (IT)/.36
- (AET)/.88
- (PEP)/.80
- (APA)/2.48
- (PBI)/.69
- (GNW)/.68
- (MFE)/.44
- (BMC)/.50
- (SINA)/.32
- (OMTR)/.08
- (AG)/.61
- (BWA)/.70
- (TRA)/.66

Upcoming Splits
- None of note

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST

- Initial Jobless Claims for this week are estimated to fall to 342K versus 375K the prior week.
- Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 2715K versus 2716K prior.

10:00 am EST
- Pending Home Sales for December are estimated to fall 1.0% versus a 2.6% decline in November.

3:00 pm EST
- Consumer Credit for December is estimated at $7.4 billion versus $15.4 billion in November.

Other Potential Market Movers
- The Fed’s Fisher speaking, Fed’s Lockhart speaking, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, (ELY) analyst meeting, (PETD) analyst meeting, Thomas Weisel Tech/Telecom/Internet Conference, CSFB Energy Conference, CSFB Financial Services Forum and Merrill Global Pharma/Biotech/Medical Device Conference could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by automaker and technology stocks in the region. I expect US equities to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.