Friday, April 04, 2008

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
- The cost to protect corporate debt from default dropped to the lowest in more than two months as futures signaled the US stock market is poised to rise for the fourth day this week. Credit-default swaps n the Market CDX North America Investment Grade Index of 125 companies fell 10.5 basis points to 102.5, according to broker Phoenix Partners Group. The Markit LCDX index, a gauge of confidence in the US high-yield, high-risk loan market that rises as sentiment improves, gained .55 percentage point to 95.1, according to Goldman Sachs(GS). Contracts on the Markit iTraxx Crossover Index of 50 companies with mostly high-risk, high-yield credit rating dropped 40 basis points to 465, according to JPMorgan Chase(JPM).
- Crude oil rose more than $2 a barrel as the US dollar fell against the euro, prompting speculators to purchase commodities.
- Buy Wal-Mart(WMT), Sell Goldman(GS) Becoming Easiest Trade. The best trade on Wall Street these days may be buying Wal-Mart Stores(WMT) and companies whose earnings will increase as the US economy recovers, while selling the banks that were behind the subprime market meltdown.

- Jim O’Neill, head of global economic research at Goldman Sachs(GS), says the economy is “not as bad as they all think.” (video)
- India’s inflation accelerated to the fastest pace in more than three years.
- Federal Reserve officials signaled the central bank will keep lowering interest rates because financial markets remain distressed.

Wall Street Journal:
- Nokia Corp.(NOK) is counting on people such as Rita El Khoury, who splurged on the Finnish phone maker’s $674 N81 handset so she could be an early user of the company’s N-Gage Internet service platform for videogames.
- Microsoft(MSFT) and Yahoo Inc.(YHOO) senior executives met this week to discuss Microsoft’s proposal to acquire the Internet company but failed to resolve any of their differences.

- Failure by the US Congress to pass a free-trade agreement with Colombia this year would be a serious setback for Washington’s closet ally in South America, President Alvaro Uribe said.

NY Times:
- Rising Leader for Next Phase of Al Qaeda’s War.

Washington Post:
- Democrats Fight for Super-Superdelegates.

CNNMoney.com:
- Michigan Democrats will not go to the polls again to choose a presidential nominee, even though the national party has refused to recognize the results of their vote in January, the party announced.

Reuters:
- JPMorgan Chase(JPM), which is taking over rival investment bank Bear Stearns(BSC), will dominate the management ranks of the combined investment banking and trading businesses, according to an internal memo.

Financial Times Deutschland:
- Otmar Issing, the European Central Bank’s former chief economist, said the euro’s appreciation helps curb inflation.

Market News International:
- European Central Bank council member Vitor Constancio said slower economic growth will damp inflation. Constancio predicted the US slowdown will impact on the euro-region economy with a “delay.”

Ansa:
- The IMF cut its 2008 forecast for Italy’s economy to .3%. The last prediction for Italy, Europe’s fourth largest economy, was for economic expansion of 1.3%.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

Mid-cap Value +.21%

Sector Underperformers:

Gaming (-1.14%), Telecom (-1.11%), Banks (-1.08%)

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

RVBD, OFIX, BCSI, AZZ, ELX and MYE

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

1) CEPH 2) SY 3) IMCL 4) MEE 5) FDRY

Money Market Fund Assets Graph


(Click on image to enlarge)

BOTTOM LINE: According to the Investment Company Institute(ICI), money market mutual fund assets are currently $3.5 trillion, which is greater than the gross domestic product of China. Money market fund assets are up a mind-boggling 88.2% from levels seen in May 2005. This is yet more evidence of the current "US negativity bubble." Investors have been scared out of their minds. ``Investors don't even care at this point,'' Deborah Cunningham, Federated's chief investment officer, said in a March 31 interview. ``There's no real concern about yield in the market at this moment, only safety.'' There is absolutely massive bull firepower available on the sidelines at a time of deep-seeded historic pessimism and a parabolic rise in short interest, which bodes very well for substantial broad market gains over the intermediate- to long-term.

Non-Farm Payrolls Decline More Than Estimates, Unemployment Rises, Average Hourly Earnings Healthy

- The Change in Non-farm Payrolls for March was -80K versus estimates of -50K and -76K in February.

- The Unemployment Rate for March rose to 5.1% versus estimates of 5.0% and 4.8% in February.

- Average Hourly Earnings for March rose .3% versus estimates of a .3% rise and a .3% gain in February.

BOTTOM LINE: The US lost jobs for a third consecutive month in March and the unemployment rate rose to the highest level since September 2005, Bloomberg reported. The decline in payrolls included a loss of 24,000 jobs in the auto manufacturing and parts industries, which the government said largely reflected the effects of the strike at American Axle, a supplier to General Motors(GM). A walkout by workers at American Axle over pay and benefits that started on Feb. 26 has idled almost 50% of GM’s North American workforce. Builders eliminated 51,000 jobs versus 37,000 in February. Service industries, which include banks, insurance companies, restaurants and retailers, added 13,000 workers versus a 6,000 gain in February. Average Hourly Earnings for March rose a very healthy 3.6% year-over-year versus the 20-year average of 3.3% and up from 1.6% in February 2004. The Unemployment Rate rose to 5.1%, but remains below the 20-year average of 5.4% and is down from 6.3% in June 2003. After a four-month downturn, the Monster Employment Index rose for the second month in a row in March. While overall the jobs report was weaker than I had expected, a loss of 80K jobs is still well below the 200K+ monthly losses normally associated with recessions. I expect the job market to improve over the coming months.

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

Mid-cap Growth (+.66%)

Sector Outperformers:

Oil Service (+1.84%), Alternative Energy (+1.83%) and Biotech (+1.13%)

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

CPL, MMR, SWN, STP, BHP, AZN, ZOLL, STRA, DAKT, WSCI, CECO, SHLM, APOL, SCHN, ANGO, CPLA, COIN, CENX, FSLR, CEPH, SQM, MAR, MEE, ESI, MOS and CPL

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

1) MAR 2) EQIX 3) HK 4) SEPR 5) USU

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