Friday, May 02, 2008

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
- The cost to protect US corporate bonds from default fell after the US lost fewer jobls last month than economists had estimated. Credit-default swaps on the Markit CDX North America Investment Grade Index of 125 companies in the US and Canada dropped another 10 basis points to 81.75 basis points in NY, according to CMA Datavision. In Europe, credit-default swaps on the Markit iTraxx Crossover Index of 50 companies with mostly high-risk, high-yield ratings dropped 22 basis points to 396 basis points, JPMorgan said. The Markit LCDX index, a gauge of confidence in the US high-yield, high-risk loan market that rises as sentiment improves, climbed .4 percentage point to 99.8, according to Goldman Sachs.
- The Fed took another stab at coaxing banks into lending at lower rates. The Fed boosted its biweekly Term Auction Facility sales of cash to banks by 50% to $75 billion and expanded the collateral it takes from bond dealers through loans of Treasury securities. It also raised the amount of dollars it makes available to the European Central Bank and Swiss National Bank through swap lines to a combined $62 billion from $36 billion.

- The US dollar rose to a five-week high against the euro after a government report showed US employers eliminated fewer jobs in April than economists forecast.
- Buffett Plots $40 Billion Buying Spree as Crunch Diverts Bidders.
- The jump in the S&P 500 above 1,400 for the first time since January indicates US stocks may extend their seven-week rally, say analysts who make predictions based on trading patterns.

- Traders of credit default swaps may start using a clearing house this year to reduce the risk of counterparties failing to meet their obligations, Bank of America said.
- Iran, OPEC’s second-largest oil producer, more than doubled the amount stored in tankers idling in the Persian Gulf, sending ship prices higher as demand for some of its crude fell.
- Vietnam’s credit rating outlook was cut to negative at S&P, which said the country’s overheating economy was a risk to stability. “In April 2008, inflation increased to above 21% year-on-year, while we project the annual current account deficit to be maintained at close to 10% of GDP,” said King Eng Tan, a Singapore-based analyst at S&P.
- Endeavour Capital LLP, founded by former Salomon Smith Barney traders, will wind down its hedge fund and restart with another fund. The London-based money manager’s Endeavour Fund made bets on the differences between Japanese government securities and lost a third of its value in March.
- Said Rafat, managing director at Fitch Ratings says hedge fund investors are booting funds of funds managers. For the first time, more than half of the hedge fund assets of the 200 largest US pension plans were invested with individual managers last year. (video)

- Hedge Fund Fees Shrink as US Pensions Make Direct Investments.
- Crude oil rose more than $3 a barrel after government economic reports were better than economists had expected, prompting speculators to anticipate better demand from the US.
- Bank of America(BAC) May Not Guarantee Countrywide’s Debt.

Wall Street Journal:
- Let’s Pop the Deficit Bubble.
- Obama’s Other Radical Friends.

Forbes:
- Fitch: US Timeshare ABS Resisting Subprime Contagion. Total delinquencies on US timeshare ABS have receded in the first quarter this year.

Digitimes:
- Silicon shortage prompts strategy changes for photovoltaic industry, says iSuppli.

Financial Times:
- Hampson Industries Plc, a UK aircraft and car parts maker, will buy two Michigan-based specialist tooling suppliers in transactions worth as much as $314 million.

Dagens Industri:
- Nokia Oyj(NOK) forecasts that services in its Services & Software unit will grow on average 20% to 30% a year, citing Niklas Savander, head of the unit. The Services & Software unit should reach sales of more than $1.5 billion in two to three years with profitability on par with the mobile-phone division.

OttawaCitizen.com:
- Why commodity investors better watch their potash. The problem with bubbles is that they’re great while they last, and those soapy ones are pretty to look at, but there’s always the unease of not knowing when they’re going to burst. Skyrocketing commodity prices have analysts talking of “atmospheric price levels” to come. Apart from the price of oil, one of the biggest talking points has been potash and its perpendicular rise. Potash Corp.(POT) has soared 234% from a 52-week low of $65.46 to a high of $218.50. “The lofty levels of fertilizer stock prices appear to be premised on the indefinite sustainability of recently higher potash prices,” said Merrill Lynch(MER) chief strategist David Wolf. Wolf made the following four observations: “First, there’s plenty of potash – nearly 300 years of known reserves at current consumption rates, according to the Intl. Fertilizer Assoc. Second, you could hardly have found a worse investment in modern times – according to the US Geological Survey, real potash prices have fallen 95% from their record peak in 1919 through the recent trough in 2003. Third, the current combined market cap of the three largest North American producers – Potash Corp.(POT), Agrium Inc.(AGU) and Mosaic Co.(MOS) – is bigger than the value of all of the potash ever sold in the history of the world. Fourth, and in our view most importantly, we believe that the euphoria in the fertilizer sector reflects a potentially dangerous broader trend across the commodity spectrum – investors mapping evident short-term supply/demand imbalances into expectations of persistent long-term supply/demand imbalances,” Wolf said.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

Small-cap Growth -.50%

Sector Underperformers:

Airlines (-3.55%), Computer Hardware (-3.14%) and Road & Rail (-1.3%)

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

MSTR, SEPR, QLGC, PMTI, MDVN, ERIC, ASFI, PNSN, BOOM, JAVA, BARE, RATE, EHTH, ENH, LZ and THO

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

1) BARE 2) MNST 3) JAVA 4) S 5) PPC

Unemployment Falls, Payrolls Better-Than-Expected, Factory Orders Jump

- The Change in Non-farm Payrolls for April was -20K versus estimates of -75K and -81K in March.

- The Unemployment Rate for April fell to 5.0% versus estimates of 5.2% and 5.1% in March.

- Average Hourly Earnings for April rose .1% versus estimates of a .3% gain and a .3% gain in March.

- Factory Orders for March rose 1.4% versus estimates of a .2% increase and an upwardly revised -.9% decline in February.

BOTTOM LINE: The US lost fewer jobs than forecasts in April, and the unemployment rate dropped, signaling that the slowdown may be milder than economists had expected, Bloomberg reported. The construction industry cut 61,000 jobs during the month. Service industries, which include banks, insurance companies, restaurants and retailers, added 90,000 jobs last month, the most this year. The advance was propelled by business and professional services, along with health and education jobs. The current unemployment rate of 5.0% remains well below the 20-year average of 5.4%, notwithstanding significant housing-related job losses. Average Hourly Earnings are now growing 3.4% year-over-year versus the 20-year average of 3.3%. I expect the job market to improve modestly over the intermediate-term as companies gain confidence in the economy, fiscal/monetary stimuli take hold, inflation decelerates, the American Axle strike ends, exports continue to boom and the drag from housing subsides.

Orders to US factories rose more than forecast in March on strong demand for US products from overseas customers, Bloomberg reported. The US trade deficit shrank in the first quarter to the lowest level in more than five years on record exports. Excluding orders for transportation equipment, demand rose 2.2%, the most in a year. Orders for machinery surged 6.4% during March. Shipments of non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, which are used to calculate GDP, rose 1.1% versus a 1.7% decline in February. Orders for military gear fell 5.5% in March. Aircraft orders jumped 6.6% and automobile bookings increased 1.4%. Total sale at manufacturers rose 1.1% in March versus a 1.9% decline in February. The number of goods on hand was unchanged at 1.27 months’ supply at the current sales pace. I expect Factory Orders to rise again in April. The US Dollar Index is rising .21% and the 10-year yield is rising 10 basis points on today’s better-than-expected economic data.

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

Large-cap Value (+.63%)

Sector Outperformers:

Homebuilders (+2.82%), Construction (+1.9%) and Oil Service (+1.8%)

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

CBEY, MRO, SM, VMED, PVTB, STO, PCBC, DLB, CAB, PHTN, IDTI, RBA, SCRX, AOB, CMVT, MFLO, SCOR, CSTR, BPHX, HNSN, MORN, RDEN, FORR, TSON, EZCH, NTCT, DRIV, UFPT, MNST, CNQR, APEI, SUNH, CPHD, GENC, TGI, B, WBD, CAB, GFA, CQB and ACS

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

1) DSCO 2) CEPH 3) IBN 4) MNST 5) JAVA

Links of Interest

Market Snapshot Commentary
Market Performance Summary
Style Performance
Sector Performance
WSJ Data Center
Top 20 Biz Stories
IBD Breaking News
Movers & Shakers
Upgrades/Downgrades
In Play

Exchange Volume vs. Average

NYSE Unusual Volume

NASDAQ Unusual Volume

Hot Spots

Option Dragon

NASDAQ 100 Heatmap

DJIA Quick Charts

Chart Toppers

Intraday Chart/Quote

Dow Jones Hedge Fund Indexes

Friday Watch

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- The risk of Australian and Japanese companies defaulting on their bonds fell, credit-default swaps show. The Markit iTraxx Australia Series 9 Index dropped 10 basis points to 83 basis points in Sydney, Citigroup said. The Markit iTraxx Japan Index fell 9 basis points to 70 basis points in Tokyo, according to Morgan Stanley.
- Crude oil fell for a fourth day as the US dollar rose against most currencies, limiting the appeal of commodities as an inflation hedge.
- The yen fell for a second day against the dollar and declined against the euro as gains in stocks encouraged investors to increase holdings of higher-yielding assets funded in Japan.

- Canon Inc., Japan’s biggest office equipment maker, rose the most in a week in Tokyo trading after the company said it plans to spend $600 million in the US to expand laser-printer cartridge production. Tokyo-based Canon will build a new 700,000 square-foot factory to produce cartridges in Hampton Roads, Virginia. The new plant will create more than 1,000 jobs.

Wall Street Journal:
- Electric Nissans Planned in US by 2010. Nissan Motor CEO Carlos Ghosen said he is preparing to take advantage of a “mass market” in electric vehicles he expects to emerge by 2012.
- Microsoft Corp.(MSFT) CEO Steve Ballmer said he can build an Internet advertising business without buying Yahoo! Inc.

MarketWatch.com:
- Commonly cited measures of US home prices are overstating the degree to which the vast majority of Americans’ home values have declined in the last year, producers of two of the most widely tracked indexes acknowledged this week.
- Richard Russell says we’ve seen this market’s bottom.

CNBC.com:
- Help Wanted In Filling These Hot Jobs.
- Big Wall Street investment companies are pulling back on their borrowing from the Federal Reserve’s emergency lending program. This week marks the fourth straight where investment firms borrowed less from the central bank.

NY Times:
- Soaring gas prices have turned the steady migration by Americans to smaller cars into a stampede.

BusinessWeek.com:
- The Mac in the Gray Flannel Suit. More office workers infatuated with iPods and iPhones are demanding Macs.
- Stocks: 11 Innovation Plays.
- Strong Summer Rentals for the Hamptons.

Forbes.com:
- Shares of Lehman Brothers(LEH) rose Thursday as Citi Investment Research analyst said the investment bank’s shares could be worth as much as $65 based on Citi’s valuation model and past performance of the investment bank.

CNNMoney.com:
- AT&T(T) price cut could juice iPhone sales. AT&T’s(T) planned $200 subsidy on Apple’s(AAPL) iPhone could increase the sales of the new 3G model by 50%, according to one analyst.
- Apple’s(AAPL) new Hollywood deal: Death of the DVD?

USA Today.com:
- The Federal Trade Commission said Thursday it hoped to complete rules by the end of the year on how it plans to enforce a new law against price manipulation and deception in the oil-trading markets.
- Anybody who dreaded first-quarter earnings reports is probably relieved now. Earnings, excluding the financial sector, are up 12.2%.

greentechmedia:
- Will Micro Fuel Cells Fly High? The US has approved the use of some micro fuel cells in airplanes, removing a major market barrier.

puregreencars:
- General Motors(GM) and Mascoma Corp. announced a strategic relationship to develop cellulosic ethanol focused on Mascoma’s single-step biochemical conversion of non-grain biomass into low-carbon alternative fuels.

Financial Times:
- A growing number of hedge fund managers are trying to persuade investors to back new ventures by offering discounted fees to help make up for losses at funds that have failed.
- Yahoo Inc.(YHOO) could announce an agreement to carry search advertisements from Google Inc.(GOOG) within a week as it braces for Microsoft Corp.(MSFT) to abandon its unsolicited acquisition offer or go hostile.
- Euro shows signs of end to bull run. Many economists are reaching the view that eurozone growth has slowed to the point where the European Central Bank will have to cut interest rates or risk stunting economic growth. “Within the space of one week, the outlook for the eurozone has worsened significantly,” said Carsten Brzeski at ING Capital Markets. “Sound economic fundamentals are melting away.”

Telegraph:
- China has secretly built a major underground nuclear submarine base that could threaten Asian countries.

The Business Times:
- Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said the city-state’s economic slowdown may extend into 2009.

Taipei Times:
- Taiwan’s property market may be in oversupply as developers build more homes than needed, citing Chuang Meng-han, an industrial economics professor at Taipei’s Tamkang University.

Xinhua:
- More than 1,000 children aged from nine to sixteen were put to work as cheap labor at factories in the southern Chinese city of Dongguan, citing the city’s deputy mayor Li Xiaomei. The children were forced to work almost around the clock, beaten and deprived of pay, nourishment and basic medical care. The government will fine those involved as much as $7,156.
- The rapid appreciation of the Chinese currency against the US dollar is taking a big toll on Asian companies using China as base for exports to the US.

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Citigroup:

- Reiterated Buy on (CMCSK), lowered target to $29.

Night Trading
Asian Indices are +.50% to +2.0% on average.
S&P 500 futures +.16%.
NASDAQ 100 futures +.18%.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Pre-market Stock Quote/Chart
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
WSJ Intl Markets Performance
Commodity Movers
Top 25 Stories

Top 20 Business Stories
Today in IBD
In Play
Bond Ticker
Economic Preview/Calendar
Daily Stock Events
Upgrades/Downgrades
Rasmussen Business/Economy Polling
CNBC Guest Schedule

Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (CCU)/.21

Upcoming Splits
- None of note

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST

- The Change in Non-farm Payrolls for April is estimated at -75K versus -80K in March.
- The Unemployment Rate for April is estimated to rise to 5.2% versus 5.1% in March.
- Average Hourly Earnings for April are estimated to rise .3% versus a .3% gain in March.

10:00 am EST
- Factory Orders for March are estimated to rise .2% versus a -1.3% decline in February.

Other Potential Market Movers
- The Morgan Stanley Global Healthcare Conference and Fed governors speaking on consumer regulations could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by technology and financial shares in the region. I expect US equities to open modestly higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.