Stocks Sharply Lower into Final Hour on Soaring Commodities, Global Growth Worries

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is lower into the final hour on losses in my Computer longs, Software longs and Medical longs. I added to my (IWM)/(QQQQ) hedges this morning, thus leaving the Portfolio 50% net long. The tone of the market is very bearish as the advance/decline line is substantially lower, almost every sector is declining and volume is about average. Investor anxiety is above average. Today’s overall market action is very bearish. The VIX is rising 1.7% and remains above average at 23.64. The ISE Sentiment Index is depressed at 73.0 and the total put/call is above average at 1.09. Finally, the NYSE Arms has been running about average most of the day and is currently .95. The commodity bubble is once again pressuring the financials and sucking the life out of the broad US stock market. Every move higher in commodities from current levels pours more air into the current “US negativity bubble” and raises the odds for a severe global slowdown/contraction. The Transports, which had been market leaders, are under significant pressure today. The Euro Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index is rising another 1.9% today to 83.40 basis points. This is up from a low of 52.66 on May 5^th, but still down from 129.46 basis points on March 20^th. The TED spread is also rising 8.1% to .84 basis points. On the positive side, weekly retail sales rose 2.1% over the last week, up from a 1.8% gain the prior week, which is the best showing since the week ended Dec. 4 during the holiday shopping season. Nikkei futures indicate a -170 open in Japan and DAX futures indicate an +8 open in Germany tomorrow. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-lower into the close from current levels on soaring commodity prices, rising global growth worries and more record shorting.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
- A US House panel blocked an end to the moratorium on US offshore oil drilling by a 9-6 vote. Ending the moratorium would have potentially freed up 81 billion barrels of oil, said Representative John Peterson, the sponsor of the proposal.
- Crude oil is soaring more than $5/bbl. today on weakness in the US dollar, a larger-than-expected US inventory decline and continuing historic investment fund speculation, despite an energy department report today that showed another decline in demand.
- The world faces an “oil crisis,” and the IEA stands ready to release emergency stockpiles.
- Bank of America(BAC) CEO Kenneth Lewis, who vowed to scale back the company’s investment bank last year after profit evaporated, affirmed his commitment to the unit and said this quarter may be among its most profitable.
- Americans are living longer, with life expectancy topping 78 years of age for the first time, as death rates dropped for a host of ailments, said US health researchers.
- India’s central bank unexpectedly raised interest rates for the first time in 15 months, joining a global wave of monetary tightening to combat a surge in inflation sparked by food and energy costs.
- Mortgage applications in the US jumped 10.9% last week, which may indicate the drop in property values is starting to draw buyers.

Wall Street Journal:
- Southern European countries, which have been weakening, are bracing for – and in some cases, protesting against – a possible interest-rate increase next month by the European Central Bank.
- Change Isn’t More State Intervention. Change We Can Believe In Is All Around Us.

Washington Post:
- Having failed in efforts to impeach Vice President Cheney, Rep. Dennis J. Kucinich(D-Ohio) escalated his battle against the administration this week by introducing 35 articles of impeachment against President Bush, using a parliamentary maneuver that will probably force a vote today. Kucinich insisted on reading the resolution into the Congressional Record, a process that took nearly five hours.
- A Vote for McBama. For the party faithful, this is a sweet moment. They have their candidates and, whatever the obstacles, can still imagine victory in November. But the rest of us ought to remember that the politics of winning and governing often collide. The first involves maximizing popularity. The second requires farsighted choices that ultimately benefit the country but may initially hurt a president's approval ratings. What have we learned about the candidates' capacity for governing? Enough, I think, to temper the excitement.

Reuters:
- US retail gasoline demand slipped 3.8% from last year’s levels, MasterCard Advisors said. The week ending June 6 marked the seventh straight week that gasoline demand has been below 2007 levels. The four-week moving average for gasoline demand, which tends to smooth seasonal fluctuations, fell 5.2% from last year’s levels.

Emirates Business 24/7:
- Recent huge spikes in oil prices are “crazy” and unrelated to supply and demand fundamentals as world markets are adequately supplied with crude, the UAE energy minister said. “There is no shortage of crude oil in the market. Inventory levels are huge, Mohammed Al Hameli said. The UAE has spare capacity and is “quite happy” to supply more oil if called upon, he said. “High prices are really hurting the world economy,” Hameli said. Russia is the biggest oil producer in the world, extracting 10.08 million barrels per day last year ahead of Saudi Arabia pumping 8.48 million barrels, IEA data show.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

Small-cap Value -1.61%

Sector Underperformers:

Road & Railirlind (-4.19%), Airlines (-3.89%) and Homebuilders (-3.13%)

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

QSII, HOFT, MCHP, ANDE, CWEI, FITB, AMLN, GBL, AGP, LEH and NTL

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

1) LLTC 2) NSC 3) MYL 4) BRL 5) PFE

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

Small-cap Growth (-.58%)

Sector Outperformers:

Energy (+.12%), Oil Service (-.20%) and Disk Drives (-.51%)

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

AGU, TRA, DIOD, ESMK, REXX, SPIR, SPLS, CCMP, JRCC, PETM, AVAN, WYNN, GMXR, SSRI, RRGB, TITN, MBLX, CPX and OXM

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

1) BEAV 2) SPG 3) MBI 4) FED 5) HOT

Economic Releases

- None of note

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