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Tuesday Watch

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- The bear market in commodities may last for six to nine months before prices rebound in the second quarter of next year, Tiberius Asset Management AG said. ``Our analysis suggests that the events of July portend the start of a bear market of six to nine months' duration,'' Zug, Switzerland-based Tiberius, which manages about $1.5 billion of assets, said in a monthly report distributed today.
- Inflation will come down ``quite dramatically'' next year because of the economic slowdown and the slide in energy costs, said Ethan Harris, chief U.S. economist at Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.(LEH) in New York. ``Next year we're going to have extremely low inflation, and a lot of that weakness is due to the decline in energy prices,'' Harris said. ``We've finally broken the back of oil prices,'' predicted Harris, who used to work at the New York Fed. ``If the economy doesn't revive at some point next year or in 2010 then you start worrying about serious, further decline in inflation,'' he said, noting that the current slump ``will probably be described as a recession.''
- Australia's central bank may need to cut borrowing costs soon to avoid the risk of a ``deeper and more persistent'' slowing in the economy. ``A case could be made for an early reduction in the cash rate,'' members of the bank's board said in minutes of their Aug. 5 meeting, released in Sydney today.
- Copper fell, reversing earlier gains, as signs of a slowing European economy fueled concern that demand will decline for the metal used in pipes and wires. U.K. house prices had the biggest annual decline since at least 2002 this month and French manufacturing confidence fell to the lowest in five years in July, separate reports showed today. Before today, copper declined for six weeks, the longest losing streak since August 2002, as the global economy cools. ``Everything is looking bad for copper,'' said Matthew Zeman, a trader at LaSalle Futures Group in Chicago. ``People are still worried about demand.'' A global economic slowdown may lead to ``higher volatility'' for copper and other commodity prices in the short term, BHP Billiton Ltd., the world's biggest mining company, said today in a statement. Slumping growth may reduce demand for raw materials in exported Chinese products, BHP said. ``China is, of course, integrated into the world economy; we've seen the export sector, like manufactured goods, come under a little bit of pressure,'' Chief Executive Officer Marius Kloppers said today in a Bloomberg Television interview in London.
- Palladium futures in Tokyo fell below 1,000 yen a gram, dropping for a third day to the lowest since June 2006 on rising expectations that demand for the metal used in vehicle exhaust filters may be less than some had expected. Palladium for June delivery fell 2.5 percent to 993 yen a gram ($281 an ounce) on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange.
- Malaysia's ringgit won't strengthen until at least 2010 because falling commodity prices and rising political tension will damp demand for the currency, according to HSBC Holdings Plc. The London-based bank, Europe's biggest, said the currency will weaken to 3.5 per dollar at the end of this year, revising a prediction of 3.28, strategist Daniel Hui wrote in a research note. ``Deterioration across several fronts leads us to believe that an unfavorable fundamental backdrop will be much protracted,'' Hong Kong-based Hui said. ``All the conditions that helped drive capital inflows in the first quarter have now vanished,'' wrote Hui, who confirmed the report yesterday. ``Falling commodity prices will be a net negative for the trade account, national income and the fiscal balance,'' Hui said in the report. Malaysia's weakening currency and relatively low yields may cause foreign investors to liquidate their holdings of local debt, HSBC said. Global funds owned about 30 percent of Malaysia's government bonds, of which almost half is concentrated in the short-term bills, Hui said. Bank Negara's decision to hold its overnight policy rate unchanged at 3.5 percent since April 2006 made it the region's least responsive central bank, raising serious questions about its credibility and independence, HSBC also said. Inflation quickened 7.8 percent in July after reaching a 26-year high of 7.7 percent in June.
- India's central bank may have to further raise interest rates as inflation at a 16-year high damages the government ahead of elections due by May, according to the finance ministry's top economist. ``The political system doesn't tolerate inflation beyond a certain point,'' the ministry's Chief Economic Advisor Arvind Virmani said in an interview in New Delhi yesterday. ``Monetary policy has to focus on inflation.''

Wall Street Journal:
- Germany's powerful engineering union IG Metall is preparing to demand inflation-busting wage increases during negotiations this fall that will affect 3.6 million workers.
- Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.(LEH) has approached a wide range of potential bidders about buying a piece of the firm's investment-management business, which includes Neuberger Berman, according to people familiar with the matter.

MarketWatch.com:
- Small-cap stocks have enjoyed big returns during the unlikely market upswing this summer, and many investors are gaming the action with exchange-traded funds. The small-cap ETF has gained 14% for the month ended Aug. 15, nearly doubling the blue-chip SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) , which rose 7.6%, according to investment researcher Morningstar Inc. So far in 2008, the small-cap ETF is down 0.5% while the S&P 500-tracking fund has shed about 10%.

IBD:
- Quality Systems(QSII): With New CEO, Company Hopes More Doctors Will Go Electronic.

CNNMoney.com:
- An oil terminal and pipeline network expected to be built off the Texas Gulf Coast in about two years would be capable of handling nearly 20% of the nation's daily imported oil. Demand from expanding refineries along the coast, from Freeport to Port Arthur, is driving the $1.8 billion project.

RockyMountainNews:
- Vestas Wind Systems' slogan is "believe in the wind." The company also seems to believe in Colorado. The company is investing $680 million with plans to employ 2,450 in Colorado by about 2010. All of Vestas' announced U.S. manufacturing is here. Gov. Bill Ritter on Friday said Vestas will spend $290 million on two plants in Brighton that will employ 1,350. The plants will join the company's existing Windsor operations and another plant, in a Colorado location to be determined, that will build towers for its wind systems.

Arizona Republic:
- Tempe-based First Solar Inc.(FSLR) will add 500,000 square feet of manufacturing, research and office space to its Perrysburg, Ohio, plant, the company said Monday.

USA Today.com:
- The average retail price for gasoline fell to its lowest level in 14 weeks, as cheaper crude oil costs are passed on to the pump and Americans drive less, the government said Monday. The national price for regular unleaded gasoline declined 6.9 cents over the last week to $3.74 a gallon, the federal Energy Information Administration said in its weekly survey of service stations.

Wealth-bulletin:
- Sharp reversals in the price of oil in July led energy hedge funds to a 9.5% decline during the month, according to new data, while funds investing more broadly in commodities were also down amid expectations of a global economic slowdown. Managed futures funds that can invest in other markets as well, including those for hard and soft commodities, fell 4% in July. Those focused on China reported a rise of 0.3% in July compared to a 5.2% increase for those targeting India. By contrast, funds investing in Russia fell by 9.1%, and those in the Middle East by 4%. The falls leave HedgeFund.net's database of emerging markets equities long/short funds down 4.9% in July and down 9.3% so far in 2008.

Dealbreaker:
- Morgan Stanley(MS) and Goldman Sachs(GS) are linking their lending to hedge funds to the market's assessment of the credit worthiness of the investment banks. Morgan Stanley will reportedly evaluate the amount of leverage it will supply to hedge funds based on the price of its own credit insurance pricing. Goldman is said to be linking its willingness to provide loans to hedge funds based on its bond prices. The changes would limit the ability of hedge funds to borrow from either firm if borrowing by Morgan and Goldman became too expensive, indicating a lack of market confidence in the financial health of the firms.

BusinessWeek.com:
- Daimler’s Smart Car Hits Cruising Speed. Thanks to eco-image-consciousness and soaring pump prices, sales finally rev up – even in the US.
- These days, all the excitement in the optical business is around new undersea cables being laid (or planned), bridging previously unconnected parts of the world. These cables are, in fact, the early warning signs of a coming economic boom.

Reuters:
- General Motors Corp(GM), aiming to boost sagging sales, rolled out a major promotion for U.S. dealers on Monday that includes employee-level discounts on almost all the Chevrolet cars and trucks in its showrooms.
- A total of 297,000 options traded on Monday in the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF), with puts outpacing calls by a factor of 1.57, according to option analytics firm Trade Alert.
- Assets in U.S.-based exchange-traded funds edged up $3 billion, or 0.5 percent, in July to $578 billion, according to a report on Monday by State Street Global Advisors. Aggregate short interest in the U.S. ETF market fell slightly to approximately 21 percent of total assets. Short interest in small cap ETFs rose 21.2 percent, while short interest in financials ETFs climbed 18.7 percent.
- Private equity firms are expected to expand their foray into leveraged loans and other distressed securities to capitalize on opportunities created by the credit crisis, Standard & Poor's said in a report. The trend is expected to benefit banks as they continue to whittle down the backlog of unsold loans from the last leveraged buyout boom before the onset of the credit crisis in the summer of 2007.
- Rogers Communications Inc, the owner of Canada's biggest wireless carrier, will start offering Research In Motion Ltd's(RIMM) new BlackBerry Bold on Thursday, the telecom firm said.

TimesOnline:
- Is it time to back America again? Investors are looking for bargains in the US property and stock markets. Brave investors are starting to back America as evidence grows that it could be the first to pull itself out of the global downturn. “This is the start of a major move: the dollar will get even stronger,” said Alan Steel at Alan Steel Asset Management. “Anyone sitting in a US fund in the last three or four weeks will have seen a nice bounce - anything up to 12%.” Professionals are more positive about America than they have been for six years, the latest Merrill Lynch survey of fund managers shows. A record net 58% of managers believe the dollar is undervalued, some 38% are most likely to be overweight in the US over the next year, and 12% of asset allocators are currently overweight - meaning they have more than their global benchmark in the country. The S&P 500 is down 9.3% on the year, but dollar-adjusted the fall is only 2.8%. The tech-based Nasdaq is up 4.7% for sterling investors. Despite huge write-downs in the financial sector, many American companies have strong balance sheets, and Steel believes the US economy is hugely underrated. “If you’re in a storm the safest place to be is in the deep sea, not the shallows, and the economy in the world that represents the deep sea is the US,” he said. “It has shown remarkable resilience. It went into the credit crunch first and it’ll be the first to come out.” American property might remain in the doldrums, but a growing number of British buyers are seeing opportunities to buy in on the cheap. Foreign-exchange firm World First has seen a 38% year-on-year jump in inquiries from Britons looking to buy in the four months to the end of July. Those thinking of following in his footsteps should think ahead. “If you’re looking at that US dream home, buying dollars and keeping them in your back pocket may be a very sensible play,” said Jeremy Cook, chief economist at World First.

Globovision:
- Venezuelan National Guard troops, four judges and workers from Petroleos de Venezuela SA moved in on the Cemex SAB cement factory in the western city of Maracaibo late today to nationalize it. A ceremony was held in the plant to mark the transfer of control.

The Financial Express:
- Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) is working on an electric car that will be bigger than the Reva brand, said a senior company official. The four-seater, under development, will hit the Indian market by 2010. M&M plans to launch the product in India and then take it abroad. This is contrary to the plans of Tata Motors, which is working on an electric car project for Norway and plans to launch the product there by the end of this fiscal and then make it available in other markets.

Business Times online:
- Malaysia’s economic growth is expected to moderate in the second half of the year, said Bank Negara Malaysia governor Tan Sri Dr Zeti Akhtar Aziz. The second half figures will be impacted by rising energy and commodity prices.

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
RBC Capital:
- Rated (AFAM) Outperform, target $52.
- Rated (AMED) Outperform, target $70..

Night Trading
Asian Indices are -1.50% to -.50% on average.
S&P 500 futures -.02%.
NASDAQ 100 futures unch.

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Upcoming Splits
- (ALXN) 2-for-1

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
- The Producer Price Index for July is estimated to rise .6% versus a 1.8% increase in June.
- The PPI Ex Food & Energy for July is estimated to rise .2% versus a .2% gain in June.
- Housing Starts for July are estimated to fall to 960K versus 1066K in June.
- Building Permits for July are estimated to fall to 970K versus 1138K in June.

Other Potential Market Movers
- The Fed’s Fisher speaking, weekly retail sales reports and Intel(INTC) Developer’s Forum could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by commodity and financial shares in the region. I expect US equities to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Finish Near Session Lows, Weighed Down by Financial, Gaming and Homebuilding Shares

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In Play

Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Global Growth Concerns, Financial Sector Pessimism, More Shorting

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is lower into the final hour on losses in my Internet longs, Gaming longs, Alternative Energy longs and Medical longs. I added (IWM)/(QQQQ) hedges and added to my (EEM) short today, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. The tone of the market is negative as the advance/decline line is substantially lower, almost every sector is falling and volume is light. Investor anxiety is high. Today’s overall market action is bearish. The VIX is surging 8.6% and is still above-average at 21.26. The ISE Sentiment Index is very low at 84.0 and the total put/call is above average at 1.03. Finally, the NYSE Arms has been running very high most of the day and is currently 1.60. The Euro Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index is rising 1.2% today to 80.09 basis points. This index is up from a low of 52.66 on May 5^th, but down from 129.46 basis points on March 20^th. The North American Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index is unch. today at 134.60 basis points. The TED spread is rising 5.38% to 1.03. The 10-year TIPS spread, a good gauge of inflation expectations, is falling 6 basis point to 2.16%, which is the lowest since October 14, 2003 and down 47 basis points in six weeks. The fact that the (XLF) is falling so much despite energy price weakness is a negative. However, market volume is light and angst is high, which is usually an indication that the bears are unable to gain traction. Recent market action still appears to me to be related to a large fund or funds cutting risk across the board. The US Dollar index is falling .14%. However, as I said last week, the index was technically extended into a zone of resistance and the safe-haven buying due to the Russian/Georgia war is likely subsiding. I expect the dollar to consolidate recent gains in the short-run before staging another surge higher over the coming weeks. If CNBC is any indication, it seems as though the vast majority of pundits believe the recent historical decline in commodities is just a pullback in a bull market that will last many more years. I still think commodity bulls are underestimating the velocity of the current global slowdown in demand, future supply increases and the staying power of the current US dollar rally. Oil still trades very poorly given recent potential upside catalysts. Nikkei futures indicate a -230 open in Japan and DAX futures indicate a -34 open in Germany tomorrow. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close from current levels on short-covering, lower energy prices and bargain-hunting.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
- China's stocks plunged, extending an 18-month low, on concern the government will avoid introducing measures to boost the world's worst-performing market this year. Shanxi Lu'an Environmental Energy Development Co. and Shandong Gold Mining Co. led coal and metal companies lower on speculation the bear market in commodities will deepen. ``There is no confidence in the market,'' said Wu Kan, a fund manager in Shanghai at Dazhong Insurance Co., which oversees the equivalent of $285 million. ``Everyone is disappointed that the regulator hasn't done anything concrete to stem the decline.'' The CSI 300 Index, which tracks yuan-denominated A shares listed on China's two exchanges, declined 134.21, or 5.5 percent, to 2,313.40 at the close, the lowest since Feb. 5, 2007. About 60 of the gauge's 300 companies fell by the maximum daily limit. The measure, which is at its cheapest in relation to earnings since March 2006, has tumbled 57 percent this year, the most among 88 global measures tracked by Bloomberg, on concern measures to cool inflation will damp earnings.
- Fisherman Cao Jianzhou may abandon the job his family has done for more than half a century because rising fuel costs mean he loses money every time he sets out to sea from his home northeast of Shanghai. ``About 70 percent of the fishermen in our village lost money in the first half of this year,'' said Cao, 44, who catches crab and shrimp with his eight-man crew off Chongming Island. ``Some have quit and survive on the fee from selling their boats for scrap.'' Cao is one of 750 million Chinese fishermen, farmers and their families who are being squeezed after the government in June joined India, Malaysia and Indonesia in raising state- controlled fuel prices to cut losses for refiners. The 17 percent increase in gasoline prices and 18 percent jump in diesel fall disproportionately on rural China, where household incomes average 315 yuan ($46) a month.
- The cost of default protection on mortgage-backed securities sold by Caja Madrid, Spain’s second-biggest savings bank, soared to a record as investors speculate the nation’s property crash may worsen. Credit-default swaps on a top ranking portion of the lender’s Madrid RMBS III FTA transaction jumped to 500 basis points from 310 at the end of July, according to BNP Paribas SA prices.
- Diapason Commodities Management SA, the Switzerland-based manager of $8.5 billion in commodities, said investors withdrew 5 percent to 10 percent of their holdings from its index funds after a drop in prices. The Diapason Commodities Index has lost 20 percent from its July 3 peak as crude oil, gold and agricultural products fell. Commodities as measured by the CRB index advanced for six consecutive years, bolstered by record prices for everything from oil to gold. Assets linked to commodity indexes totaled $297 billion as of June, from about $76.7 billion at the beginning of 2006, according to Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. Money has also been withdrawn from structured commodity products, customized investments for those unwilling or unable to invest through indexes or derivatives, Lausanne-based Corrigan said.
- Gold held in exchange-traded funds managed by ETF Securities Ltd. climbed to a record last week while platinum holdings plunged 8.2 percent. Gold assets rose 2.1 percent to 1.853 million ounces on Aug. 15, according to data posted on the company's Web site today. Platinum assets fell to 232,073 ounces.
- U.S. and Georgian officials disputed Russia's assertion that it began withdrawing its forces to the separatist region of South Ossetia, leaving the fate of a two- day old cease-fire agreement in doubt.
- Lowe's Cos.(LOW), the world's second- largest home-improvement retailer, reported profit that fell less than some analysts estimated after consumers spent their tax-rebate checks.
- Fannie Mae(FNM) and Freddie Mac(FRE) tumbled to about 18-year lows in New York trading on concern the government will be forced to bail out the mortgage-finance companies, wiping out common stockholders.
- Companies have sold $9.1 billion of high-yield, high-risk bonds since the end of May, the slowest US summer since 1994, according to JPMorgan Chase(JPM).
- Tropical Storm Fay is poised to hit Florida as a hurricane in the next day after killing about a dozen people on its path through the Caribbean. The storm may approach the Florida Keys later today, then make landfall on the state's west coast between Naples and Tampa Bay tomorrow, packing winds of at least 74 miles (119 kilometers) per hour.
- Brazil is drawing U.S. celebrities at an unprecedented clip, contributing to a record current account deficit that is leading Wall Street firms from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. to Morgan Stanley to predict an end to the four-year, 83 percent rally in the real.
- Russian industrial production grew at a slower pace than economists forecast in July. ``The softening may not be as temporary as we thought,'' said Yevgeny Nadorshin, an economist at Trust Investment Bank in Moscow. ``The pace of manufacturing growth is very low, and the picture with mineral extraction isn't pleasant.''
- Last week, the Government Accountability Office released a report showing that 60 percent to 70 percent of companies in the U.S. pay no taxes. That led to an Associated Press story with the startling headline, ``Most Companies in U.S. Avoid Federal Income Taxes.'' First, while it is true that 60 percent to 70 percent of companies in the study paid no tax in a given year, there was a big qualification. The study focused on an Internal Revenue Service tax database that included millions and millions of companies. The vast majority of firms in the study were tiny mom- and-pop enterprises. Why did the tiny mom-and-pop enterprises pay no taxes? Because they didn't make any money! In other words, there was virtually no news in the study. The truth is, of course, that we are all in it together. Workers will have better jobs if the U.S. is a more attractive climate for corporations. That means we need to reduce corporate taxes, not increase them.

Wall Street Journal:
- Michael Phelps, the US swimmer who’s won an unprecedented 8 gold medals at the Beijing Olympics, may be worth as much as $50 million to a sportswear company such as Nike Inc.(NKE).

BusinessWeek.com:
- Marcial: Sequenom’s(SQNM) Down Syndrome Test. The genetic tester’s prenatal-screening product could help it dominate a market with multibillion-dollar potential and transform medical diagnostics. There are tests for Down Syndrome already on the market, but, says Bassett, Sequenom's product removes prevailing concern about their accuracy.

HedgeFund.net:
- Hedge Fund Asset Flows Signal Investor Sentiment Shifts. The report estimates total hedge fund assets increased 4.41% in Q2 2008 to $2.973 trillion. The dollar amount of fund liquidations during Q2 was larger than new fund launches by an estimated $8.52 billion; the third highest level of fund closures on record. Fund of funds experienced net withdrawal of investor assets in Q2 2008 for the second time on record. Funds operating in Asia saw total assets fall an estimated $3.12 billion from a combination of performance losses and investor withdrawals. For the third consecutive quarter, investors have reduced allocations to equity strategies and increased allocations to fixed income related strategies. Allocations to emerging market hedge funds have slowed significantly in the last three quarters. Dislocations in credit markets and credit related securities in recent prior quarters, event driven and special situations funds experienced record growth in Q2 2008. Total assets in distressed funds increased an estimated $23.11 billion to $275.43 billion in Q2 08. CTA/Managed Futures products have been prime beneficiaries of broadly rising commodity prices. In the past four quarter these funds have experienced increasing rates of organic growth. In Q2 08 investor allocations increased assets 7.28%, the highest rate of organic growth in four years. Total CTA/Managed Futures assets reached an estimated $218.36 billion in Q2.

InvestmentNews:
- Funds of hedge funds losing their luster. As performances slow, some are questioning extra fees and lack of differentiation. From 1999 through the end of June, the number of hedge funds had jumped 147% to 7,662, and the number of funds of funds grew 413% to 2,642. The most recent data from Morningstar Inc. in Chicago shows that individual hedge funds had net inflows of $10.7 billion in June, while funds of funds suffered $9.2 billion in net outflows. "Generally speaking, I think a lot of people are starting to look at the funds-of-funds model, wondering what they're getting for the added layer of fees," said Ryan Tagal, director of hedge funds at Morningstar.

East Bay Business Times:
- Austin remains resilient in an increasingly bleak national housing market, according to a new study by national research firm Metrostudy. Home prices fell 3.1 percent across the country in the last year, while they rose 7.7 percent in Austin. Other Texas cities saw home prices rise about 3 to 4.5 percent.

ZDNet:
- When most publishers use RSS feeds to syndicate their content, most are hoping readers click through to the original content, and then they can monetize it from there — unfortunately, consumers of this feed data are often just looking for a quick fix, and not really that interested in the actual source of the information. This has made monetizing content a bit tricky when providing full-text feeds. When Google(GOOG) bought Feed Burner, they instantly got access to a whole bunch of new ad inventory — which has largely remained untapped. Google has finally publicly launched their solution to that problem — AdSense for Feeds.

Vedomosti:
- OAO VimpelCom, Russia’s second-largest mobile-phone company, and OAO MegaFon, the third-largest, may sign a deal with Apple Inc.(AAPL) to start selling iPhones in the country this week. As part of the agreement, Apple wants each operator to buy 1 million to 1.5 million iPhones.

Herald Sun:
- Ken Wood, coach of Australian Olympian Jessicah Schipper, sold his training program to the Chinese swimmer who defeated his protégé for gold last week. Wood received “big money” by selling his training methods to the coach of Chinese swimmer Liu Zige, citing an interview with the Australian coach.

Xinhua News:
- The Beijing municipal authorities haven’t approved any of the 77 applications to hold protests and demonstrations in the Chinese capital. China said last month it would allow approved protests in three Beijing parks during the Olympic Games.

Arab News:
- Saudi Arabia’s gold demand fell 16% to 35.9 tons in the second quarter as the metal’s price rose, citing data from the World Gold Council. Gold demand fell 11% in the UAE and 24% in other Gulf countries as the average gold price advanced 34% to $896.29 an ounce between April-June.

Jordan Times:
- Jordan expects its first shipment of Iraqi oil by middle of next month, citing the kingdom’s Minister of Energy Khaldoun Qteishat.

Emirates Business 24/7:
- A shortage of qualified bankers in the Middle East is leading to wage inflation that may hinder growth, citing Standard Chartered Plc. Regional CEO Shayne Nelson.
- The majority of United Arab Emirates residents cannot afforest to buy a home in the country, citing a survey by real-estate Web site propertyfinder.ae.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

Large-cap Value -1.45%

Sector Underperformers:

Gaming irlind (-4.85%), Banks (-3.70%) and Homebuilders (-3.28%)

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

TSL, YTEC, AMLN, PWRD, HSY and HAR

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

1) AMLN 2) SOLF 3) JCG 4) JEF 5) ODP