BETWEEN THE HEDGES

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher into the final hour on gains in my Biotech longs, Internet longs, Medical longs, Gaming longs and Emerging Market shorts. I covered all my (IWM)/(QQQQ) hedges, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is mildly negative as the advance/decline line is lower, most sectors are gaining and volume is above average. Investor anxiety is high. Today’s overall market action is bullish. The VIX is rising .98% and is above-average at 24.76. The ISE Sentiment Index is very low at 99.0 and the total put/call is high at 1.06. The total put/call hit an extremely high reading of 1.40 into this morning’s weakness. Finally, the NYSE Arms has been running around average most of the day, after peaking at 2.0 this morning, and is currently .62. The Euro Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index is +.27% today to 92.83 basis points. This index is up from a low of 52.66 on May 5^th, but down from 129.46 basis points on March 20^th. The North American Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index is +1.41% at 149.45 basis points. The TED spread is rising 2.61% to 1.21 basis points. The 10-year TIPS spread, a good gauge of inflation expectations, is rising 1 basis point to 1.96%, which is down 66 basis points in just over seven weeks and at the lowest level since August 2003. Oil continues to trade very poorly given the OPEC production cut, a larger-than-expected inventory decline, hurricane worries and Iranian shipping sanctions. Refinery Utilization is now at 78.3%, the lowest since the historic hurricanes in 2005 wreaked havoc with the Gulf energy infrastructure and slashed oil demand by refiners. I suspect a good part of today’s rebound is related to traders finally beginning to price in the possibility of sub-$100 oil. The (XLF) has been very resilient given recent news. The etf continues to hold its recent range of $19.50-$23.50, which is a broad market positive. Many market leading stocks are posting meaningful gains today. These stocks are just too cheap in most cases. I am seeing evidence of size buyers finally stepping up to the plate. The Shanghai Composite, the world’s worst-performing major stock market, fell another 3.3% last night and is down 65.5% from its record set in October of last year. It continues to track closely with the bubble-bursting pattern of the Nasdaq in 2000-2001. The US Dollar continues to trade very well, but is getting extended again short-term. The AAII % Bulls dropped to 29.3% and the % Bears jumped to 54.9% this week, which is a big positive. Nikkei futures indicate an +73 open in Japan and DAX futures indicate a +18 open in Germany tomorrow. I expect US stocks to trade modestly higher into the close from current levels on lower commodity prices, short-covering and bargain-hunting.

Bloomberg:
- Families and friends of the 2,751 people who perished when two hijacked jets slammed into the World Trade Center's twin towers convened at Ground Zero today to observe the seventh anniversary of the worst terrorist attack on U.S. soil. Bells tolled in Zuccotti Park, a block from Ground Zero, at 8:46 and 9:03 a.m., marking the moments when planes crashed into each tower. They tolled again at 9:59 and 10:29 a.m., when the buildings collapsed into a fiery cloud of smoke and debris.
- The US dollar rose to a one-year high against the euro on signs global growth is slowing, and the yen strengthened on speculation investors will sell higher-yielding assets funded by loans in Japan. ``Perception of risk has expanded globally,'' said Robert Sinche, head of global currency strategy at Bank of America Corp. in New York. ``Longer-term investors are unwinding their short-dollar positions. The dollar has momentum with it as the capitulation goes on.'' ``The global slowdown has dimmed the allure of higher yields abroad,'' wrote Benedikt Germanier, a currency strategist at UBS AG in Stamford, Connecticut, in a research note to clients today. ``Dollar demand sparked by U.S. investors' repatriation flows in early August has reached the point of feeding on itself.'' ``The commodity bubble is popping,'' said Dustin Reid, a senior currency strategist at ABN Amro Bank NV in Chicago. ``Oil exporters have less dollars to recycle. The pace of diversification has slowed down. The dollar will remain bid.''
- Platinum fell to a 20-month low as the dollar gained against the euro, cutting demand for the metal as a hedge against inflation. Palladium sank to the lowest price in almost three years. ``Precious metals markets continue down across the board,'' Miguel Perez-Santalla, a sales vice president at Heraeus Precious Metals Management in New York, said today in a note to clients, citing the rising greenback. ``The dollar should continue to strengthen and the metals will continue to follow as the highly leveraged investment market keeps on bailing out.'' ``In conversations with investors and funds, what has happened in platinum is only a more extreme example of recent commodity flows,'' John Reade, the head of metals strategy at UBS AG in London, said today in a note to clients. ``For a metal with apparently superior supply and demand fundamentals and low stocks, to experience such a dramatic sell-off has shocked us.''
- Crude oil fell more than $2 a barrel and gasoline advanced as Hurricane Ike headed across the Gulf of Mexico for refineries along the Texas coast. ``Ike is aimed at the refineries,'' said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research in Winchester, Massachusetts. ``It looks like refiners will be down for a while and the crude will pile up.
- The Baltic Dry Index, a measure of shipping costs for commodities, fell to its lowest since March 2007 on a lack of demand to haul cargoes in the Pacific and a slowing Chinese economy. The Baltic Dry Index of costs for international trade routes shed 133 points, or 2.6%, to 4,893 points. That’s a 17^th straight decline and a 46% slide for the year.
- The cost to protect against a default by securities firm Lehman Brothers(LEH) fell from a record. Five-year credit-default swaps on NY-based Lehman fell to 650 basis points, after trading at a record 790 basis points, according to Phoenix Partners.
- Russia, which fought a five-day war with neighboring Georgia last month, will boost defense spending 26 percent to a post-Soviet record next year as it adds weapons and raises salaries, Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin said.

Wall Street Journal:
- If Barack Obama loses the presidential election, it may well be the result of a public perception that he is detached and elitist -- a politician whose expressions of empathy for hard-working Americans stem more from abstract solidarity than a real connection to the lives of millions of citizens.

CNBC.com:
- Lehman Brothers(LEH) CEO Fuld is seeking a buyer for the fourth-largest US securities firm. Fuld “is clearly shopping Lehman, not just a piece of it,” Charlie Gasparino reported.

CNNMoney.com:
- How the KGB took over Russia’s economy.

Market Watch:
- Home Price Declines, Low Mortgage Rates Motivating Home Buyers. Seventy-seven percent of first-time homebuyers say lower home prices played critical role in decision to purchase home.

intrade.com:
- For the first time since it became apparent that Senator McCain would be running against Senator Obama for President, the odds of a McCain victory on intrade.com are higher than those of an Obama win, by a margin of 51.6%-47.9%.

US Commodity Futures Trading Commision(CFTC):
- The aggregate amount of commodity index trading occurring both OTC and on-exchange is estimated to be $200 billion as of June 30, 2008 – of which $161 billion was tied to commodities traded on U.S. markets regulated by the CFTC. Based upon the staff’s analysis, the Commission report includes the following recommendations:
1. Remove swap dealers from the commercial category in the Commitments of Traders Reports and create a new swap dealer classification for reporting purposes.
2. Develop and publish a new periodic supplemental report based on OTC swap dealer activity.
3. Create a new CFTC Office of Data Collection, whose sole mission is to collect, verify, audit, and publish all the agency’s commitments of traders information.
4. Establish more detailed reporting standards for certain large traders on regulated futures exchanges to ensure a more precise picture of their trading activity.
5. Consider elimination of bona fide hedge exemptions for swap dealers and the creation of a new, limited risk management exemption.
6. Request increased funding to successfully implement the above recommendations, along with additional funding sufficient to meet current mission requirements and any other additional responsibilities given to the agency.
7. Continue to encourage the clearing of OTC transactions.
8. Conduct a review of swap dealers’ futures trading activity to ensure that it is sufficiently independent of any affiliated commodity research.

USA Today:
- New data from a public registry that tracks health effects of the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks suggest that up to 70,000 people developed post-traumatic stress disorder as a result of the terror attacks. The new analysis released Wednesday from the World Trade Center Health Registry provides the most comprehensive picture yet of the health of people who were affected by the attacks. Participants agreed to be tracked for up to 20 years after 2001.
- As New York City's crime rate continues to drop, police officers are using their weapons less, and last year they fired the fewest times since the police department began recording the statistic three decades ago.

CBCnews:- Ontario will not move the economic yardsticks at all in 2008, resulting in Canada's GDP growth rate slipping 75 per cent this year, according to a new forecast by Scotiabank Economics.

Financial Post:
- Canadians have been flooding into the depressed U.S. housing market, purchasing a record number of homes south of the border, and twice as many as a year earlier. Armed with what until recently was a strong currency, most were also paying cash, according to the 2008 National Association of Realtors annual profile of international home buying activity in the United States. Canadians have replaced Mexicans as the top foreign buyers of U.S. properties, the survey revealed.

Bild:
- Germany is at high risk from attack by al-Qaeda terrorists, according to a new report prepared by the head of the Federal Criminal Office. In his report to parliament, BKA chief Joerg Ziercke said the decision to target Germany has been made “at the highest level” of al-Qaeda and other terrorist groups. Ziercke’s BKA organization is the German equivalent of the FBI in the US.

Moscow Times:
- Mikhail Khodorkovsky, the imprisoned former OAO Yukos Oil Co. billionaire said oil at $70 a barrel or more provides sufficient financial incentive for innovators to develop alternative fuels. Crude at $70 allows new technologies to “gradually” replace fossil fuels with other energy sources.

Irish Times:
- Ireland unemployment will continue to drift upwards to over 8 per cent in 2009, the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) is expected to forecast in its next quarterly economic commentary due later this month.

Espanola:
- Spanish Finance Minister Pedro Solbes expects economic growth in the country to remain flat in the second half of this year, citing an interview. Solbes expects the economic situation in Spain to worsen next year.

Al-Hayat:
- OPEC President Chakib Khelil said crude oil prices are unlikely to rise in the coming months because commercial oil stockpiles are “very high” and OPEC is overproducing. Global inventories, which already hold a surplus, will be boosted further by output from non-OPEC producers such as Russia, Norway and Brazil by the beginning of next year, citing Khelil. The combination of lower oil demand, rising stockpiles and a strengthening dollar may drag crude prices down, Khelil said.

Emirates Business 24/7:
- The six Gulf Cooperation Council states, including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, agreed to begin free trade talks with Iran, citing Khalaf Al Manai, Qatar’s undersecretary of finance. The negotiations have been sought by Iran for over a decade.

BETWEEN THE HEDGES

Top Menu

Thursday, September 11, 2008

Stocks Finish at Session Highs, Boosted by Airline, Road&Rail, Restaurant, HMO, Bank, Steel and Oil Service Shares

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Short-Covering, Lower Commodity Prices and Bargain Hunting

Today's Headlines

Bear Radar

Bull Radar

Links of Interest