Tuesday Watch

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- The Bush administration will invest about $125 billion in nine of the biggest U.S. banks, including Citigroup Inc. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc., in the government's latest attempt to shore up confidence in the financial system. The cash injections in exchange for preferred shares are part of a $700 billion rescue approved by Congress and follow similar moves by European leaders to unfreeze global credit markets by helping beleaguered banks. The other companies are Wells Fargo & Co., JPMorgan Chase & Co., Bank of America Corp., Merrill Lynch & Co., Morgan Stanley, State Street Corp. and Bank of New York Mellon Corp., said people briefed on the plan.

- Default-protection costs on Japanese and Australian corporate bonds declined on anticipation the Bush administration will announce plans to invest in nine U.S. banks including JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. The Markit iTraxx Japan index of credit-default swaps fell 45 basis points to 180 at 8:33 a.m. in Tokyo, according to prices from Morgan Stanley. The decline exceeds the 42-basis- point drop on March 21 after the rescue of Bear Stearns Cos., CMA data show. The iTraxx Australia declined 30 basis points to 185, Citigroup Inc. prices show.

- Honda Motor Co., the world’s largest motorcycle maker, and manufacturers of industrial goods and electronics in Brazil plan to trim output as demand slows and a plunge in the value of the local currency boosts costs, a union official said. “We expect other companies to make similar decisions,” Sena said. “I haven’t seen anything like this in at least seven years.” The Brazilian real has lost 27% against the US dollar since the start of August, the biggest loser among the 16 most-traded currencies tracked by Bloomberg. Consumer demand will probably cool in coming months as the weaker currency hurts confidence, said Roberto Padovani, chief economist at Banco WestLB do Brasil in Sao Paulo.

- Boeing Co.(BA) and its machinists union failed to settle a strike over job security and ended a new round of talks that began over the weekend, keeping aircraft factories idle for a fifth week. The work stoppage is costing Chicago-based Boeing more than $100 million in lost revenue a day since the company usually gets paid upon delivery, analysts say. The strike is also further delaying the new 787 Dreamliner, which is already at least 15 months behind schedule and was supposed to fly for the first time next month.

- North Korea will resume shutting down its Yongbyon nuclear reactor today and allow United Nations inspectors to monitor the process, the International Atomic Energy Agency said.

- Japan may halt sales of government- held shares to help protect financial markets from the global credit crisis, Finance Minister Shoichi Nakagawa said. Japan will also take steps to tighten restrictions on short- selling while relaxing regulations on share buybacks, Nakagawa said. The government will require exchanges to disclose short- sales on individual stocks and industries daily as opposed to monthly, according to the Financial Services Agency statement.

- U.K. home sales fell in September to the lowest level in at least three decades, led by London, as the financial crisis prompted price drops across the nation, the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors said.

Wall Street Journal:
- The Rich Support McCain, the Super-Rich Support Obama. More than three quarters of those worth $1 million to $10 million plan to vote for Sen. McCain. Only 15% plan to vote for Sen. Obama (the rest are undecided). Of those worth more than $30 million, two-thirds support Sen. Obama, while one third support Sen. McCain. The reason? Taxes. Some say the super-rich can afford to minimize taxes, since they have plenty of money even after the government takes its share. Others say the ultra-rich have better tax attorneys so they don’t care as much about tax rates.

- Steven Cohen, who heads hedge fund SAC Capital Advisors, is among other investors who have moved mostly out of stocks and into cash equivalents. Cohen has ended most of his fund’s bets on stocks by moving about $7 billion of his company’s $14 billion in capital into money-market and other short-term investments. Hedge funds have put as much as $400 billion into cash equivalents recently, citing David Kostin, an analyst at Goldman Sachs Group Inc.(GS). Goldman's Mr. Kostin says some hedge funds are being forced to sell to meet investor redemptions. For their part, Messrs. Cohen and Englander have moved to cash because of extreme market chaos and investor panic, according to people familiar with their thinking. An email from from Richard Fuld Jr., Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.'s chief executive to Lehman General Counsel Thomas Russo on April 12, 2008, shows why hedge funds are so worried. In the email, Mr. Fuld, summarizing the points from a dinner with Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, said Mr. Paulson wants to "kill the bad HFnds + heavily regulate the rest." A large part of the selling by some hedge-fund managers has come since the beginning of October, helping to fuel the sharp selloff in stocks this month. Mr. Cohen, for instance, sold near half of his stock holdings last week, closing out the positions of roughly 50 managers who work for him because he felt they "weren't seeing the ball," says a person familiar with the situation. Mr. Cohen could conceivably jump back into the market quickly. Managers in cash Monday missed out on the Dow's biggest one-day point gain ever.

- BYD Co. plans to start selling China’s first mass-produced electric car next month, citing Chairman Wang Chuanfu. The F3DM may be priced at about $22,000 each and capable of traveling as far as 68 miles on a fully charged battery, Wang said. BYD’s electric car was a key reason why billionaire Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. paid $230 million for a 10% stake in the company.

NY Times:
- Merger talks are continuing between General Motors(GM) and Chrysler as the companies study possible financial terms of a deal that would combine two of the traditional Big Three automakers.

- Both Sides of the Aisle Say More Regulation, and Not Just of Banks.

- The American Bankers Association asked the Securities and Exchange Commission on Monday to override accounting rule makers’ new guidelines on mark-to-market accounting, saying they still relied too heavily on distressed asset values.

CNNMoney.com:
- What the MacBook means to Apple(AAPL). In terms of future growth, the MacBooks are particularly well positioned. The Macintosh’s domestic market share, by contrast, is still only 8.4%, according to Gartner, despite recent gains. Its worldwide market share is even smaller: about 3.4%. The upside potential is huge. And the best thing about Apple’s market share is that it’s mostly in the high end, where the profit margins are sweetest. Consider the following chart, issued Monday in a report to clients by Sanford Bernstein’s Toni Sacconaghi:

WealthBulletin:

- It may be premature to write the epitaph for funds of hedge funds, but industry practitioners are giving them a less than glowing prognosis after losing 11% this year. Fund of hedge funds managers have historically decided who gets 40% of the industry’s $1.9 trillion assets to manage, ideally differentiating between good hedge funds and also-rans.

Reuters:

- U.S. President George W. Bush signed into law on Monday a bill that would stiffen penalties on movie and music piracy at the federal level. The law creates an intellectual property czar who will report directly to the president on how to better protect copyrights both domestically and internationally.

- Saudi Basic Industries Corp's 2010.SE metals group said on Monday it will more than triple steel production capacity to 17 million tons by 2020 through acquisitions and the building of new plants.

- Union Bancaire Privee has cut its exposure to hedge funds and industry performance has disappointed, while other assets look more attractively-priced, a top executive said. Christophe Bernard, the Swiss-based firm's head of asset management, also told the Reuters Wealth Management Summit that the industry, estimated at $2.6 trillion, could shrink by one-third over the coming quarters as investors withdraw assets.

Financial Times:
- Investor fears over the risk of many emerging market countries' defaulting on their debt has risen sharply as Iceland's financial collapse has hit sentiment, discouraging funds from investing in these economies. The market is pricing the risk of default for countries such as Pakistan, Argentina, Ukraine and Iceland at 80 per cent or higher as the banking systems of these countries come under increasing pressure due to the credit crisis.

Handelsblatt:

- Abu Dhabi continues to be interested in investing in Europe and the US in spite of the current financial crisis, citing Khaldoon Al Mubarak, head of Mubadala, an investment arm of Abu Dhabi. Abu Dhabi is also still interested in possibly investing in the banks of the regions, citing Mubarak.

China Daily:

- China’s luxury goods market has not been spared the financial crisis, a consumer fair has shown. Spending patterns at a luxury goods fair in Shanghai this year have shown that buyers are tightening purse strings and not paying for astronomically priced luxury items as readily as before, vendors have said.

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Citigroup:
- Reiterated Buy on (ATVI), target $22.50.

Night Trading
Asian Indices are +3.0% to +6.0% on average.
S&P 500 futures +2.44%.
NASDAQ 100 futures +2.02%.

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Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (SVU)/.69

- (PEP)/1.08

- (PII)/1.09

- (GWW)/1.53

- (JNJ)/1.11

- (ALTR)/.30

- (INTC)/.34

- (CSX)/.93

- (LLTC)/.45

- (DNA)/.88

- (ADTN)/.35

- (DPZ)/.21

Economic Releases
2:00 pm EST

- The Monthly Budget Surplus for September is estimated to fall to $45.0 billion versus $112.9 billion in August.

Upcoming Splits
- None of note

Other Potential Market Movers
- The weekly retail sales reports, Lazard Alternative Energy Conference, Wachovia Consumer Growth Conference, IBD/TIPP economic optimism index and (JCI) analyst presentation could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are sharply higher, boosted by financial and commodity stocks in the region. I expect US equities to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Finish Sharply Higher, Boosted by Airline, Gaming, Construction, Insurance, Commodity, HMO, Biotech, Utility, Medical and Technology Shares

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In Play

Stocks Soaring into Final Hour on Less Financial Sector Pessimism, Bargain-Hunting and Short-Covering

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher into the final hour on gains in my Biotech longs, Internet longs, Computer longs and Medical longs. I took some profits in a few technically extended trading longs and added to some laggard longs today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is very positive as the advance/decline line is substantially higher, almost every sector is rising and volume is above average. Investor anxiety is still very elevated. Today’s overall market action is very bullish. The VIX is falling 18.43%, but is still historically elevated at 57.48. The ISE Sentiment Index is low at 99.0 and the total put/call is around average at .90. Finally, the NYSE Arms has been running high most of the day, hitting 1.5 at its intraday peak, and is currently 1.16. The Euro Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index is falling 10.15% today to 95.24 basis points. This index is up from a low of 52.66 on May 5^th, but down from 157.81 on Sept. 16^th. The North American Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index is falling 3.8% to 186.0 basis points. The TED spread is falling 1.43% to 4.57 basis points. The 10-year TIPS spread, a good gauge of inflation expectations, is rising 11 basis points to 1.04%, which is down 159 basis points in just over three months and at the lowest level since February 1999. Many growth stock leaders are up 12-20% today, significantly outperforming the broad market. The best growth stocks that can grow at a relatively high rate even during a recession have very likely already seen their lows and will be substantially higher over the next year. I also suspect the major averages have at the very least bottomed for this year. How quickly credit markets improve will likely determine if a retest of the broad market lows occurs at some point next year. As of now, I see a full retest as an unlikely scenario. We are getting very extended short-term, but another surge is likely deeper into earnings season as investors buy the bad news. Forward earnings guidance will be very poor, but an extreme amount of bad news has already been factored into most stock prices at current levels, in my opinion. Given extreme economic fears of late and so much talk of “re-inflating” the economy, gold trades very poorly. As credit markets return to more normal behavior and fear subsides, I expect gold to see a meaningful decline in gold over the intermediate-term as the US dollar continues to firm, demand falls and the secular trend of disinflation remains firmly in tact. Nikkei futures indicate an +725 open in Japan and DAX futures indicate an +157 open in Germany tomorrow. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close from current levels on short-covering, less financial sector pessimism, diminished forced selling, bargain-hunting and technical buying.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
- The Federal Reserve led an unprecedented push by central banks to flood the financial system with as many dollars as banks want, backing up government efforts to revive confidence and helping to reduce money-market rates.

- France, Germany, Spain, the Netherlands and Austria committed 1.3 trillion euros ($1.8 trillion) to guarantee bank loans and take stakes in lenders, racing to prevent the collapse of the financial system. The announcements came as Britain took majority stakes today in Royal Bank of Scotland Plc and HBOS Plc.

- Money-market rates in London fell after policy makers offered banks unlimited dollar funding and European governments pledged to take ``all necessary steps'' to shore up confidence among lenders. The London interbank offered rate, or Libor, for three-month dollar loans dropped 7 basis points to 4.75 percent today, tied for the largest drop since March 17, the British Bankers' Association said.

- James Chanos, president of hedge-fund firm Kynikos Associates Ltd., said he's selling short the fewest financial shares in four years after they lost half their value and government support made it more likely the stocks will rally. ``We have the least amount of financials short in our portfolio that we've had in four years,'' Chanos said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. ``They're down quite a bit, and clearly with these kinds of rescue packages our view is the risk-reward is not great on the short side, probably selectively on the long side. We're looking elsewhere.'' Chanos, who manages $5 billion, also said he is reducing short-selling of the steel industry. The hedge-fund manager said he is betting against some areas abroad that have been rapidly increasing infrastructure growth. ``All you need to do is look at Dubai's travails all of a sudden, which we've been talking about for a while, as a microcosm of projects that were pie in the sky, built with easy credit,'' he said. ``A lot of those projects will find difficult financing. That's where we're going to see some problems.''

- Dubai may need help from Abu Dhabi and the United Arab Emirates government to finance a surge in borrowing that paid for the world's tallest tower, palm tree- shaped man-made islands and stakes in banks worldwide. Dubai's ``potential reliance'' will be ``most significant'' in coming years, Moody's Investors Service said in a report today. Government-controlled companies owe at least $47 billion, more than Dubai's gross domestic product, and they will continue to accumulate debt at a faster pace than the economy grows, the New York-based rating firm said. ``These companies that are based in Dubai have become larger than Dubai itself,'' said Giyas Gokkent, chief economist at National Bank of Abu Dhabi, the U.A.E.'s second-largest commercial bank by assets. ``If anything were to go wrong with any of these companies, Dubai does not have the wherewithal to deal with it.''

- U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Federal Reserve officials today will meet with executives from financial companies to discuss the government plan to restore confidence in credit markets, the Treasury said.

- The cost of protecting bank bonds from default fell as the U.K. bailed out Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc, HBOS Plc and Lloyds TSB Group, and governments across Europe announced coordinated action to avert financial collapse. Credit-default swaps on the Markit iTraxx Financial index of 25 European banks and insurance companies dropped 11 basis points to 98, the lowest in three weeks, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. prices at 10:45 a.m. in London. The U.S. Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and the Bank of England will offer financial institutions unlimited dollar funds for the first time in an attempt to ease tensions in money markets. The Group of Seven finance chiefs, meeting in Washington over the weekend, vowed to take ``all necessary steps to unfreeze credit and money markets.'' Germany is preparing its own rescue plan that may total as much as 400 billion euros ($540 billion). Contracts on the Markit iTraxx Crossover Index of 50 companies with mostly high-risk, high-yield credit ratings decreased 30 basis points to 700, having reached a record 750 last week, JPMorgan prices show. The Markit iTraxx Europe index of 125 companies with investment-grade ratings fell 7 basis points to 131. The Markit iTraxx credit-default swap index of 50 investment-grade Asian borrowers outside Japan was down 35 basis points at 295 as of 5:30 p.m. in Hong Kong, Barclays Capital prices show. The Asian high-yield benchmark declined 75 basis points to 875.

- The European bank rescue plan laid out yesterday in Paris should enable confidence to be restored, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, the chief of the IMF, said. “What has been done over the last three days should provide elements of reassurance,” Strauss-Khan said. The worst of the financial crisis “may be behind us,” he added. The IMF will submit proposals to reform the financial system, including tighter control of hedge funds through the banks that provide them with debt, he said.

- Morgan Stanley(MS) climbed as much as 66 percent in New York trading after the firm sealed its $9 billion investment from Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc., giving the Japanese bank preferred stock that pays a 10 percent dividend. Mitsubishi UFJ, Japan's biggest lender, will get 21 percent of the New York-based company as previously agreed, the firms said today in a joint statement.

- Gold fell for the third straight session as equities worldwide rebounded, reducing the appeal of the precious metal as a haven against market turmoil. The London interbank offered rate, or Libor, for three-month dollar loans fell to 4.75 percent from 4.82 percent, the British Bankers' Association said. ``As markets may recover from now to next March, the full sense of security will come back into the market, and people will not be that interested in gold,'' Marc Faber, the managing director of Marc Faber Ltd. and the publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom report, said in an interview on Bloomberg Television.

Wall Street Journal:

- Eastern European countries, already financially overstretched, are facing a pullback by lenders and investors, which may threaten to burst economic bubbles in the Balkans and trigger a major slump in Hungary and the Baltic states, citing fund managers and economists. Many of those countries had borrowed heavily from overseas lenders to finance business activity and consumer spending.

- Keep Your Money in the Market. We’ve been through ups and downs before. We will have a serious recession now, but a 1930s-style depression is highly unlikely. We will not let the money supply decline by 25%, as we did in the '30s, and automatic stabilizers (like unemployment insurance) are now a significant element of fiscal policy. Don't forget that the U.S. economy is still the most flexible in the world and our "innovation machine" is alive and well. No one has consistently made money by selling America short, and I am confident the same lesson is true today.

- It may be premature to write the epitaph for funds of hedge funds, but people in the industry are giving them a less-than-glowing prognosis after a year in which the funds have on average declined in value by 11%. Fund-of-hedge-funds managers have historically decided who gets 40% of the hedge-fund industry's $1.9 trillion of assets to manage, the idea being that they can more efficiently differentiate between good hedge funds and also-rans. This year, however, their track record hasn't been good. And if, as expected, significant numbers of investors pull cash out of the funds as the opportunity arises near the end of the year, that could be enough to further hurt some funds' performances and leave others with a portfolio unbalanced by the sales needed to raise the cash.

Barron’s:
- There’s reason to believe that the stock-market averages will hit bottom sometime in the next few months, even if the economy is still in the middle of a recession. The buy-and-hold approach still applies. The fear that sent the market down so sharply last week may have driven stocks close to their ultimate lows. "I don't think this is the end of America as we know it," says Byron Wien, chief investment strategist at Pequot Capital Management. "I think it's conceivable that the markets will bottom before year end." The good news today is that stocks appear to have gotten out ahead of any recession, falling so sharply that they might already have priced in pretty horrible times ahead. The Dow is down almost as much in the past year as the 45% it fell in the 1973-1975 recession, and its 12-month decline far exceeds the 24% it lost in the period leading up to and during the 1981-1982 recession, according to Birinyi Associates.

NY Times:
- The country’s leading group of pediatricians is recommending that children receive double the usually suggested amount of vitamin D because of evidence that it might help prevent serious diseases. To meet the new recommendation of 400 units daily, millions of children will need to take vitamin D supplements each day, the American Academy of Pediatrics said. That includes breast-fed infants — even those who get some formula — and many teenagers who drink little or no milk.

NY Post:

- Sharper Image's new owners have cut a half-billion-dollar deal to catapult the brand out of bankruptcy into a global business.

USA Today:
- How Congress set the stage for a fiscal meltdown. During last week's presidential debate, John McCain and Barack Obama sparred over what caused the financial crisis. It was a classic example of Washington finger-pointing. McCain and the GOP blame Fannie and Freddie — which were taken over by the government last month — because the troubled mortgage agencies' biggest backers were Democrats who said they wanted to increase access to homeownership. Meanwhile, Obama and other Democrats highlight Republicans' longtime focus on limiting regulations for the financial industry. No single government decision sparked the crisis, but collectively the candidates had a point: Both parties in Congress played important roles in setting the stage for the ongoing financial meltdown.

Boy Genius Report:

- iPhone 3G may be coming to a Wal-mart(WMT) near you.

Loyd’s List:

- Chinese coal demand is falling and will probably cut hiring ships that haul the fuel, citing an official at China’s Ministry of Communications. Demand for electricity, coal and crude oil peaked in July and has weakened since August, citing Jia Dashan, director of the transportation research and consultant department at the Waterborne Transportation Institute. Qinghuangdao port has 8.3 billion metric tons of coal, close to its capacity of 9 million tons.

Reuters:
- Goldman Sachs (GS), the biggest oil trader on Wall Street, has been restricted from making a market in price assessment agency Platts' daily oil trading window as counterparty anxiety grows, two sources familiar with the move said on Monday. Goldman is the latest in a series of major investment banks to be placed under a so-called "review" by Platts, which has said it may sometimes need to limit the activities of some companies in its half-hour price-discovery process if their acceptability by counterparties threatens to distort benchmark prices. The review does not stop Goldman from trading oil, and there was no suggestion that the review had affected its day-to-day trade. But being restricted from making a market in the window will reduce the bank's influence on Platts' benchmark prices.

Rzeczpospolita:
- Polish central bank Governor Slawomir Skrzypek said the European Union’s largest eastern member may have to change its 2011 target date for euro-adoption due to the global financial crisis. “The current situation inclines us to rethink the euro-adoption data,” Skrzypek said.

Interfax:

- Russia’s trade surplus shrank 26% in September to $13.7 billion. Exports in September dropped 9% from the month before to $41.3 billion and imports rose 3% to $27.6 billion, citing an official.

Times of India:

- Prospects of an early ban on short-selling in Indian futures and in the cash segment has increased considerably, with evidence mounting that a group of market operators are using the present weak sentiments to hammer it further by offloading shares in huge numbers. Sources indicated that the pressure to ban short-selling has increased in the light of reports that on Friday alone operators short sold shares worth Rs 2,500 crore, adding to the bearish sentiment.

Taiwan News:

- Russian stocks dropped Monday on declining world oil prices and new struggles for control of the world's largest nickel miner, prompting regulators to suspend trading on one of the country's two exchanges. The ruble-denominated MICEX was down 5 percent when trading was halted just after 3 p.m. (1100 GMT). The other exchange, the RTS, was down 6 percent.

recast to "

ABC Radio Australia:

- Jonathan Kaufman, the Senior Editor of the Wall Street Journal and a former Beijing Bureau Chief expects a housing crisis will soon hit China. "I think there's a huge bubble in China and I think that I would be surprised if they don't face similar situations as the US has faced, because banks were lending in China purely on a whim, keeping people in homes that they really couldn't afford," he said.

Valor Economico:
- Brazilian consumers are cutting back on spending and credit-card use, citing a survey by Qualibest. 55% of respondents said the global credit crisis affected their spending patterns, according to the survey.

Investorsoffshore.com:

- "Current global market conditions in the hedge fund arena are characterized by heavy redemptions, suspensions and re-structurings coupled with much-reduced (although not zero) new fund formations. In the structured finance arena there has been severe drop-off in deal flows as a result of the freezing of the global capital markets. This situation is not expected to significantly improve until 2010. We are already seeing an impact on the public sector side, with new company registrations Jan-Sept down 10% over the same period in 2007." According to Tibbetts, some experts are forecasting that the number of hedge funds globally could contract by 20-30%, "which will obviously affect Cayman's book of business.” The Cayman Islands has rapidly become the domicile of choice for hedge funds due to its favourable regulatory regime. It is thought that about 80% of the world's hedge funds are registered in the jurisdiction, and at the last count, its financial industry regulator, the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority (CIMA), reported that more than 10,000 investment funds had registered there by the end of the second quarter of 2008.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
Small-cap Value (+4.54%)

Sector Underperformers:
REITs (-.10%), Banks (+1.38%) and Gold (+3.03%)

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
RGLD and DBD

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
1) SNDA 2) GIS 3) ITU 4) EOG 5) CBS

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
Mid-cap Growth (+6.52%)

Sector Outperformers:
Oil Service (+10.59%), Construction (+10.2%) and I-Banks (+9.4%)

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
NRGY, NGLS, INFY, SAY, WYE, JNJ, PVR, HXM, SBAC, VLCCF, ICLR, BRLI, NICE, WPPGY, XTXI, MOLXA, SPTN, PSEC, OMRI, SQNM, UEPS, SWWC, RYAAY, DRYS, VPHM, BOBE, MANH, Y, ADC, PVD, IHE, MTK, PXQ, VCO, SNE, KYN, EMM, BCH, NRP and MS

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
1) SGR 2) WMI 3) HA 4) BX 5) NTES