- The index of leading U.S. economic indicators unexpectedly increased in December as the money supply expanded, masking signs of a worsening recession. The Conference Board’s gauge rose 0.3 percent, the first gain in six months, after a 0.4 percent drop in November, the New York-based group said today. Also contributing to the index’s rise were interest rate spreads, manufacturers’ new orders for consumer goods and new orders for non-defense capital goods.
- Brazil’s retail industry jobs cuts may rise by about 40% in the first quarter, citing Roque Pellizzaro Junior, president of the National Confederation of Shop Managers.Shop inventories have risen by about 50%, Pellizzaro said.
O Pais:
- OPEC will hold an extraordinary meeting before a scheduled gathering in March should oil prices “fall abruptly” below $40 a barrel, citing OPEC President Jose Maria Botelho de Vasconcelos. De Vasconcelos said not all of OPEC’s members are complying with a reduction in production quotas and this would be addressed in March.
- Billionaire investor Warren Buffett’s equity portfolio may have declined 14% this year through Jan. 22 as the share price of three banks he owns slipped, citing an estimate.Buffett, who is chairman and CEO of insurer Berkshire Hathaway(BRK/A), holds stakes in American Express(AXP), Wells Fargo(WFC) and US Bancorp(USB).The estimate was based on the change in the value of the 16 largest equity stakes in his portfolio, which account for more than 85% of the total.
- Iraq’s crude oil exports in December rose to 56.2 million barrels a day, an increase of 3.4 million barrels from November, citing the nation’s Oil Ministry.
- The IMF will revise down its 2009 forecast for global growth to between 1% and 1.5% from 2.2%, citing IMF Deputy Director Axel Bertuch-Samuels.
O Estado de S. Paulo:
- Exxon Mobil Corp.(XOM), Hess Corp.(HES) and Petroleo Brasileiro SA’s(PBR) BM-S-22 offshore block in Brazil’s so-called pre-salt area may hold as much as 10 billion barrels of oil.The block operated by Exxon Mobil in Brazil’s SantosBasin may have more potential than the nearby Tupi field, which contains as much as 8 billion barrels, citing people with access to results of some studies.Based on crude prices around $40 a barrel, the oil may be worth as much as $400 billion.
- Petrochemical prices in Saudi Arabia will extend declines this year as demand weakens in the Arab world’s largest economy, citing Sulaiman Bin Mohammad al-Waleed, managing director of the Saudi Industrial Investment Group.
Weekend Recommendations
Barron's: - Made positive comments on (BHP), (TDS), (GASS), (BP), (XOM), (PBR), (BRK/A), (ORLY) and (HNZ).
Citigroup:
- Upgraded (LEN) to Buy, target $11.
Night Trading
Asian indices are +.25 to +.50% on avg.
S&P 500 futures -.62%.
NASDAQ 100 futures -.56%.
- Leading Indicators for December are estimated to fall .2% versus a .4% decline in November.
- Existing Home Sales for December are estimated to fall to 4.4M versus 4.49M in November.
Other Potential Market Movers
- The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity report, (CBSH) analyst presentation, (STD) shareholders’ meeting, (ALOG) stockholders meeting, (ENR) shareholders meeting could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are slightly higher, boosted by financial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.
Wed.– Citi Financial Services Conference, World Economic Forum, (SQNM) analyst day
Thur.– World Economic Forum, (DFS) financial briefing, (KMP) analyst meeting, (ASH) shareholders meeting, (SCHW) business update
Fri.– World Economic Forum
BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week higher on bargain-hunting, short-covering, technical buying, diminishing financial sector pessimism, less extreme economic fear and declining credit market angst. My trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.