Stocks Finish Mostly Higher, Boosted by Education, Healthcare, Telecom and Software Shares

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Stocks Mostly Higher into Final Hour on Bargain-Hunting

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly higher into the final hour on gains in my Biotech longs, Healthcare longs, Education longs and Computer longs. I covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQQ) hedges and some of my (EEM) short today, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. The tone of the market is mildly positive as the advance/decline line is modestly higher, sector performance is mixed and volume is below average. Investor anxiety is above average. Today’s overall market action is mildly bullish. The VIX is falling rising 1.0% and is very high at 45.31. The ISE Sentiment Index is below average at 115.0 and the total put/call is below average at .80. Finally, the NYSE Arms has been running high most of the day, hitting 1.68 at its intraday peak, and is currently 1.0. The Euro Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index is rising 1.56% today to 119.17 basis points. This index is up from a low of 52.66 on May 5^th, but down from 157.81 on Sept. 16^th. The North American Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index is rising 4.16% to 205.32 basis points. The TED spread is rising 2.44% to 98 basis points. The TED spread is now down 368 basis points in under four months. The 2-year swap spread is rising 17.0% to 72.25 basis points. The Libor-OIS spread is rising 4.46% to 96 basis points. The 10-year TIPS spread, a good gauge of inflation expectations, is falling 4 basis points to 1.07%, which is down 163 basis points in over six months. The 10-year TIPS spread bottomed at .65% in October 1998 during the Asian financial crisis and at 1.24% in October 2001 during the technology bubble-bursting meltdown. The 3-month T-Bill is yielding .24%, which is up one basis point today. Small-caps are displaying meaningful relative strength today. Education and healthcare stocks are particularly strong. As well, there are an unusual number of stocks rising on volume given the major averages’ performances. It is noteworthy that the 10-year yield is at session lows, despite the rebound in stock and better-than-expected ISM report. Nikkei futures indicate an +67 open in Japan and DAX futures indicate an +24 open in Germany tomorrow. I expect US stocks to trade mixed into the close from current levels as more shorting and rising credit angst offset bargain-hunting.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

- Estonian new car registrations fell 62% in January from a year earlier as the Baltic country’s deepening recession deterred customers. New car registrations fell to 1,017 units from 2,706 units a year earlier, the vehicle registration center said in an e-mailed statement today. New and used car registrations fell an annual 65% to 1,604 units, it added.

- JPMorgan Chase(JPM) and its competitors have maintained their lending, contrary to media reports that the nation’s biggest banks are holding on to their cash, Ladenburg Thalmann analyst Dick Bove said. “Banks have not pulled back,” Bove said. “The press, for whatever reason, continues to perpetuate false comments on this subject.” Bove said the media’s motive in misrepresenting the state of consumer lending was “simply mystifying.” “Bad information often leads to bad policy making,” Bove said.

- The International Energy Agency will probably revise its forecast for world oil demand this month because of slowing economic growth, the agency’s executive director said. The Paris- based agency, which advises 28 developed nations on energy policy, is scheduled to publish its monthly report on Feb. 11. Hedge-fund managers and other large speculators increased their net-long position in New York crude-oil futures in the week ended Jan. 27, according to U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data. Speculative long positions, or bets prices will rise, outnumbered short positions by 51,652 contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the Washington-based commission said in its Commitment of Traders Report. Net-long positions rose by 5,518 acts, or 12 percent, from a week earlier.

- Mario Gabelli is buying Wyeth to book a 13 percent profit from its takeover by Pfizer Inc. Managers at Cohen & Steers Inc. are scooping up closed-end funds trading at a 16 percent discount to the value of their holdings. Huntington Asset Advisors Inc. is betting the widest gap between silver and gold prices in 14 years will narrow. A year ago, these so-called arbitrage strategies would have been favorites of hedge funds whose debt-fueled trading squeezed out other investors. Since then, the credit-market seizure wiped out about 920 of the 10,096 funds in business at the start of 2008, according to Hedge Fund Research Inc.

- Bond investors are telling Hugo Chavez he should be voted out of office instead of winning his campaign to serve as Venezuela’s president another 10 years. Venezuelan bonds fell the most in Latin America since December, when Chavez began pushing for a referendum to abolish term limits so he can serve through at least 2019. The average yield on the government’s dollar bonds rose to 17.40 percentage points more than Treasuries, from 14.74 points when he took office a decade ago, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. The combination of Chavez’s political strategy and the 72 percent plunge in oil from a July record is increasing investor concern about the country’s ability to pay its $46 billion of debt. Venezuela, the biggest oil exporter in the Americas, raised government spending to the equivalent of 36 percent of gross domestic product in 2007 from 23 percent in 1998, according to Standard & Poor’s. “The Chavez model is based on the idea of spending lots of money,” said Michael Atkin, who helps oversee $12 billion in fixed-income assets as head of sovereign research at Putnam Investments in Boston. “The credit quality is deteriorating. It’s hard to want to own Venezuelan debt even at these spreads.”

- The ruble slumped to its weakest level against the dollar in 11 years as investors speculated Russia will be forced to give up its currency defense after draining reserves.

- Barack Obama said he “absolutely” stands behind Thomas A. Daschle, the president’s nominee for Health and Human Services Secretary who amended his U.S. tax returns Jan. 2 to pay $140,000 in back taxes and interest. Daschle also won the support of Senate Finance Committee Chairman Max Baucus, a Montana Democrat, whose panel will meet today with the nominee. Daschle, a former Senate Democratic leader, also had been named by Obama to head a new White Office of Health Reform and was viewed as the new administration’s leading spokesman on its efforts to expand health coverage to more Americans and reduce medical costs. Daschle, in a letter to the Finance Committee, said he was “deeply embarrassed” about his tax errors. He amended his 2005, 2006 and 2007 returns to add unreported consulting fees, unspecified charitable contributions and a car and driver provided by Leo Hindery Jr., founder of the private-equity firm InterMedia Advisors, a committee draft report said.

Wall Street Journal:

- The chairman of the House Committee on Foreign Affairs tried to meet a top aide to Iran's supreme leader in mid-December but was rebuffed at the last minute, a snub that illustrates the challenges to dialogue with Tehran pushed by President Barack Obama. Rep. Howard Berman, a California Democrat, notified Mr. Obama's transition team and the Bush White House of the planned meeting in Bahrain, according to senior Obama administration officials. The engagement with Ali Larijani, speaker of the Iranian parliament, would have marked one of the highest-level meetings between American and Iranian officials since the 1979 Islamic revolution in Iran. It's unclear why Mr. Larijani pulled out.

- The House Democrats’ political arm is launching a radio, email, and telephone campaign against 28 House Republicans in 20 states who voted against the $819 billion economic stimulus package last week. The “Putting Families First” campaign will being airing Tuesday morning on drive time radio and run throughout the week. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee also said they will target three million voters with an email campaign and make 100,000 phone calls.

- Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner will give a speech next week in which he will outline the Obama administration's financial-rescue plans, according to a Treasury official. The plan will include an effort to help homeowners in danger of foreclosure, as well as additional steps to shore up the financial sector.

- President Barack Obama's choice for Health and Human Services secretary, Tom Daschle, apologized and tried to explain lapses in his personal taxes in a letter to leaders of the Senate Finance Committee. "As you can well imagine, I am deeply embarrassed and disappointed by the errors that required me to amend my tax returns," the former South Dakota senator wrote in the letter, released Monday. "I apologize for the errors and profoundly regret that you have had to devote time to them."

- With a slew of high-profile hires, President Barack Obama's chief economic adviser is raising the clout of the White House National Economic Council -- as well as the prospects of internal conflict in the Obama administration. Lawrence Summers's effort may lift the NEC to a level of prominence unmatched since President Bill Clinton created the body in 1993 to give economic issues equal weight with national-security matters. White House aides say that is an appropriate response to the economic challenges facing the nation. But Mr. Summers has raised concern outside the White House that clashes with the Obama cabinet on policy and personality may be inevitable as Mr. Summers transforms a policy-coordinating council into a center for policy making.

NY Times:

- Kirsten E. Gillibrand, New York’s new senator, suggested to Latino elected officials on Sunday that she would take the lead on some immigration issues — and perhaps quickly drop some positions that they considered objectionable. In particular, she promised to take a lead in promoting a Congressional bill to roll back a federal provision that discourages states from charging in-state tuition to the children of illegal immigrants who attend state-supported universities. The bill also would permit illegal immigrants who have grown up in the United States and are attending college to apply for legal status. And despite her vote in Congress when she was a representative from upstate New York, Ms. Gillibrand said she no longer supported cracking down on so-called sanctuary cities like New York that fail to enforce all immigration laws.

- As Wal-Mart(WMT) undergoes a changing of the guard, with a new chief executive in office since Sunday, the company says that it has improved fleet efficiency by more than 25 percent since 2005. The retailer, which has one of the largest trucking fleets in the country, is also testing out alternative fuels with a small number of its trucks, according to a statement scheduled for release today.

Politico:

- The Albuquerque Journal reports that federal investigators have asked the Democratic Governors Association, which Bill Richardson headed, for documents in their expanding pay-to-play investigation:

Washington Post:

- Connecticut Sen. Chris Dodd says he'll refinance two mortgages that he received through a VIP program from Countrywide Financial Corp. Dodd told reporters Monday that the mortgages for his homes in Washington and East Haddam, Conn., will be refinanced with a different company. Dodd has acknowledged receiving mortgages in 2003 through a VIP program at Countrywide, which was sold to Bank of America Corp. earlier this year and has been the focus of allegations that it gave favorable loan terms to lawmakers.

AppleInsider:

- Even as the economy has continued to falter, Apple’s(AAPL) share of web users has climbed up to a landmark 9.93% in the first month of 2009 while Windows’ own share continues to slide downwards. Web tracking data compiled from tens of thousands of websites by Net Applications shows Apple reaching the all-time high with an 0.3 percent bump to the number of Macs making page requests.

The Detroit News:

- Ford’s(F) electric car project charges ahead. Canadian supplier’s prototype fuels drive to bring battery-powered vehicle to market in ’11.

InformationWeek:

- Recent stories on Apple's(AAPL) iPhone patent have focused on Cupertino's threatened legal action against Palm, which is launching the iPhone-like Pre smartphone. But a closer examination of the Apple patent yields much more interesting news. Namely, Apple is considering adding a video record feature to the iPhone -- an omission users have long complained about -- and it may soon become a handheld videophone platform, with support for mobile video-conferencing calls.

Reuters:
- Dallas Federal Reserve President Richard Fisher warned on Monday against "Buy America" provisions in a proposed fiscal stimulus law and said it could lead to devastating trade protectionism. "Let me just be blunt. Protectionism is the crack cocaine of economics. It may provide a high. It's addictive and it leads to economic death," Fisher told C-Span television in an interview for its "Washington Journal" program. President Barack Obama seeks a $825 billion stimulus plan to end the country's yearlong recession. U.S. lawmakers are debating rules that will insist that public money is spent on U.S-made products, although the White House has already said it will review any Buy America provisions.

MailOnline:
- Google(GOOG) Ocean will let users explore shipwrecks and reefs in the deep blue sea. The latest version of Google Earth lets people plunge beneath the sea, swim around underwater volcanoes, hover above shipwrecks and navigate mountains on the sea bed. The Ocean in Google Earth software also includes video and photographs of thousands of marine species, and lets virtual divers follow whales and sharks tagged with satellite tracking devices. The undersea 3D world was created with help from more than 25 leading marine scientists.

Lusa:

- Macau’s casino revenue fell about 17% in January, citing provisional data collected from operators. Billionaire Stanley Ho’s casinos had a market share of “a little more” than 28% and his casino operator was the only one with revenue of more than 2 bilion patacas, Lusa said. Las Vegas Sands(LVS) was ranked second with “a little more” than a 22% market share, followed by Wynn Resorts with “slightly” more

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Xinhua:
- Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on Monday called on the United Nations to bring Israeli leaders to justice, the official IRNA news agency reported. The president made the remarks in a meeting with the visiting chief of Hamas Political Bureau Khalid Mashaal who arrived here Sunday for talks with senior Iranian officials on major regional and international issues. Ahmadinejad urged the United Nations to bring Israeli leaders to justice for "crimes against humanity and war crimes in Gaza," the report said.

Hurriyet:
- Petrol Ofisi AS, Turkey’s biggest fuel distributor, expects gasoline sales to decline by 11% this year, citing CEO Melih Turker. Gasoline sales fell 11% last year.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
Mid-cap Value (-.79%)

Sector Underperformers:
Papers (-5.27%), Gold (-4.01%) and Oil Tankers (-3.49%)

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
TSRA, UBS, COL, AXYS, INSU, SQNM, SCHW, TOD, ROK, MAT, HAS and PJC

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
1) HST 2) M 3) BEN 4) EXPD 5) ATI

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
Large-cap Growth (-.08%)

Sector Outperformers:
HMOs (+2.29%), Education (+2.02%) and Software (+1.70%)

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
HUM, MSTR, ITMN, ESI, APOL, HNT, FORM, INTC, ME, TDS, PHG, PCZ, JJSF, SXCI, BEAV, SBNY, RYAAY, AMZN, AKAM, STBA, ATHR, SGMS, NFLX, TTEK, CTXS, ESRX, LANC, MDCO, HAE and CMP

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
1) CHRW 2) CIEN 3) BDK 4) JNPR 5) MU

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