Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
Large-cap Growth (+.48%)

Sector Underperformers:
Semis (-2.95%), Computer Services (-1.47%) and Retail (-.65%)

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
IRF, DIOD, DELL, BBY, LOW, LMNX, APEI, CSTR, MCHP, AVAV, ISIL, SNDA, ATHR, ORB and WTW

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
1) ATVI 2) DTV 3) ETN 4) CCL 5) SYNA

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
Mid-cap Value (+2.26%)

Sector Outperformers:
Banks (+5.64%), Energy (+3.17%) and HMOs (+2.83%)

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
ARD, HBC, PTR, TEO, SU, VNUS, HRBN, FSYS, ENOC, NILE, VRSN, IPHS, CTCT, DWSN, SGMS, THOR, AIRM, HANS, ALNY, LMDIA, RUSHA, DXPE, VPRT, LEAP, ANDE, MIL, INT, BVF, IT, RHB, TEO and EBS

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
1) HBAN 2) XLNX 3) MTG 4) ONXX 5) UNH

Links of Interest

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Friday Watch

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:

- The Federal Reserve determined that 10 U.S. banks need to raise a total of $74.6 billion in capital, a finding that Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said should reassure investors about the soundness of the financial system. The results showed that losses at the banks under “more adverse” economic conditions than most economists anticipate could total $599.2 billion over two years. Mortgage losses present the biggest part of the risk, at $185.5 billion. Trading accounts were the second-largest vulnerability, with potential losses of $99.3 billion. The conclusion of the unprecedented probe of the health of the largest 19 lenders opens an exit for some of the firms from a tense partnership between Wall Street and the government. Others will have six months to fill their capital shortfalls and may be forced to accept expanded federal ownership that could prompt changes in their management. “The results released today should provide considerable comfort to investors and the public,” Bernanke said in a statement. “The examiners found that nearly all the banks that were evaluated have enough Tier 1 capital to absorb the higher losses envisioned under the hypothetical adverse scenario.”

- Stephen Friedman, chairman of the New York Federal Reserve Bank’s board of directors, resigned from his position effective immediately to avoid the appearance of a conflict of interest. Friedman, a retired chairman and current member of Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s(GS) board, had been granted a waiver to keep serving after Goldman Sachs became a bank holding company in September, a change that would have normally barred Friedman from serving as a director appointed to represent the public. Last month, he planned to depart at the end of the year. His purchases of Goldman Sachs shares in December and January were criticized by a senator. Senator Richard Shelby of Alabama, the ranking Republican on the Senate Banking Committee, said Friedman’s purchases of Goldman stock were “deeply disturbing,” according to an article this week in the Wall Street Journal. Resigning is the “right thing for him to do,” said former St. Louis Fed President William Poole, who is now a senior fellow with the Cato Institute. “At the St. Louis Fed, we absolutely would never have considered making an exception.” Poole, a Bloomberg contributor, said he was “astonished” to learn of Friedman’s situation from news reports. “It does seem to me to be totally inconsistent with the plain language of the Federal Reserve Act.” “Goldman Sachs is like a fraternity,” said Marilyn Cohen, president of Envision Capital Management in Los Angeles. “Everyone seems conflicted every which way. To have the New York Fed chairman making decisions about a company in which he owns shares is unconscionable. At least Friedman understood that it’s over.”

- Wells Fargo & Co.(WFC), the biggest U.S. mortgage originator, announced plans to sell $6 billion of common stock to the public ahead of regulators’ stress test results.

- Morgan Stanley(MS), whose stock has gained 69 percent this year, plans to raise $2 billion in a share sale and $3 billion by selling debt that’s not government-guaranteed after regulators determined the company needs more capital. The firm said it intends to repay U.S. bailout funds.

- Australia’s central bank said a recovery from the first recession since 1991 will be “gradual” as the nation adjusts to lower export earnings and rising unemployment that will prompt consumers to cut spending. Gross domestic product will shrink 1.25 percent in the 12 months through June, before rising 0.25 percent the following fiscal year, the central bank said in Sydney today. Three months ago, the bank forecast growth of 0.25 percent this fiscal year and 1.25 percent a year later. Inflation will slow to 1.5 percent in fiscal 2009, it said.

- The euro declined against the dollar for the first time in three days on speculation a European Central Bank official will signal interest rates may be lowered again after the bank cut them to a record low yesterday. The euro fell versus 13 of the 16 most-active currencies before a German report that may show industrial production dropped for a seventh month in March. “The ECB has pointed to another rate reduction in the future,” said Masanobu Ishikawa, general manager of foreign exchange at Tokyo Forex & Ueda Harlow Ltd., Japan’s largest currency broker.

Wall Street Journal:

- Senators are working on a compromise version of a labor-organizing bill that will likely drop a contentious card-signing provision in favor of a speedier union election process, according to people familiar with the talks. The proposed compromise on the Employee Free Choice Act also seeks greater use of mediation and would restrict the authority of arbitrators to impose contracts. The bill in its original form would make it easier for unions to organize workers by getting them to sign cards and would force companies to enter contracts.

- Hedge-fund investors could be poised to put some money back to work as sentiment thaws after months of heavy withdrawals. Investors in hedge funds -- including "fund of funds," pension funds and endowments -- expect to reduce their cash hoards to 13% of their portfolios in coming months, compared with 19% at the end of last year, according to the 2009 global hedge-fund investor survey from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. The survey, conducted in January and February, covers about 460 investors controlling about $1 trillion of assets, so the switch could mean tens of billions of dollars going back into the funds. In recent months, investors have continued to pull money out of hedge funds, though at a slower rate. Investors redeemed $104 billion during the first quarter of 2009, compared with withdrawals of $152 billion during the last three months of 2008, according to Chicago-based data tracker Hedge Fund Research Inc. Industry specialists expect new money to come from institutions that traditionally have allocated little or no money to hedge funds. That includes Philadelphia's Drexel University, which has a midsize endowment of about half a billion dollars.

- Google Inc.(GOOG) Chief Executive Eric Schmidt told shareholders that the economy remains uncertain but the company isn't cutting back on innovation.

- Listen. That sound of silence? That's what's known as the united Republican response to President Barack Obama's drive to socialize health care. The president has a plan, and he's laid it on the table. The industry groups that once helped Republicans beat HillaryCare are today sitting at that table. Unions are mobilized. A liberal umbrella group, Health Care for American Now, is spending $40 million to get a "public option," a new federal entitlement that would kill off private insurance. Democrats passed a budget blueprint that will allow them to cram through that "public option" with just 51 votes. Republicans? They're trying to figure out what they think.

CNBC.com:
- Eliot Spitzer, the disgraced demagogue who resigned as New York governor after revealing himself to be the Hypocrite of Wall Street, has crawled out from under his Rock of Shame to try to reclaim his moral legitimacy and terrorize us anew.Are we really gonna let him get away with this? Again!? Whatever happened to the justifiable stigma of shame: the obligation to shut up and disappear after your own odious behavior betrays your family and lets down your adoring fans and followers?

NY Times:

- It looks as if one more bank needs a bailout. And, four months ago, this bank was not even a bank. The company is GMAC, the onetime finance arm of General Motors, which itself seems to be hurtling toward bankruptcy. The results of bank stress tests disclosed Thursday showed that GMAC is in dire straits. Federal regulators determined that GMAC must raise a staggering $11.5 billion in capital, the equivalent of roughly half its current equity.

The WashingtonPost:

- Intelligence officials released documents this evening saying that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) was briefed in September 2002 about the use of harsh interrogation tactics against al-Qaeda prisoners, seemingly contradicting her repeated statements over the past 18 months that she was never told that these techniques were actually being used. In a 10-page memo outlining an almost seven-year history of classified briefings, intelligence officials said that Pelosi and then-Rep. Porter Goss (R-Fla.) were the first two members of Congress ever briefed on the interrogation tactics. Then the ranking member and chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, respectively, Pelosi and Goss were briefed Sept. 4, 2002, one week before the first anniversary of the 9/11 terrorist attacks.The memo, issued by the Director of National Intelligence and the Central Intelligence Agency to Capitol Hill, notes the Pelosi-Goss briefing covered "EITs including the use of EITs on Abu Zubaydah." EIT is an acronym for enhanced interrogation technique. Zubaydah was one of the earliest valuable al-Qaeda members captured and the first to have the controversial tactic known as water boarding used against him.The issue of what Pelosi knew and when she knew it has become a matter of heated debate on Capitol Hill. Republicans have accused her of knowing for many years precisely the techniques CIA agents were using in interrogations, and only protesting the tactics when they became public and liberal antiwar activists protested.

Politico:

- In a briefing-room clash over the president’s budget with NBC reporter Chuck Todd, White House press secretary Robert Gibbs mocked NBC and its parent company, General Electric, for suffering in the down economy. The exchange began when Todd challenged Gibbs on the relatively small size of Obama’s spending cuts, which constitute a tiny fraction of the federal budget. “One half of one percent — how is this truly a tough decision?” Todd asked Gibbs, referring to Obama’s $17 billion in planned program reductions. “I’ll resist the temptation —,” Gibbs began, but Todd cut him off. “You want to have a money argument, but the percentage does matter,” Todd said. “People are cutting back their spending by 10 percent. Companies are cutting back by 5 percent.” “NBC!” Gibbs interjected with a laugh. “The stock of GE!”

Forbes.com:

- Pay attention. This is a major turn of events. The stock market is in a cyclical bull market, not a rally in a bear market. Stock prices and economic activity will rise in a "V" shape, not in a U-shaped, or more ominously L-shaped, fashion as many experts have predicted, and some of us have feared. This trend should continue until at least the end of this year. Housing prices have hit bottom--and the economy is in the midst of shifting dramatically from a 6% annualized loss in GDP to a 4% gain by the end of 2009. That is a 10% turnaround--with a value of $1.4 trillion more economic activity. Not even the Obama administration is predicting 4% growth by year end. If correct, it could put a dent in the expected budget deficit next year. Predicting this is Lakshman Acuthan, a highly prominent forecaster at the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), a consulting company whose research is used by many corporate chieftains and investment managers.

AP:

- The Obama administration wants to cut almost in half a benefits program for the families of slain police and safety officers. The president's proposed budget calls for cutting the Public Safety Officers' Death Benefits Program from $110 million to $60 million. The proposal is being made just days before Attorney General Eric Holder is expected to attend ceremonies in Washington honoring slain officers. "It makes us kind of nervous. While we aren't panicking, it certainly has increased our concern, coming a week before National Police Week," said Suzie Sawyer, executive director of Concerns of Police Survivors, a group taking part in next week's events. The group said killings of police officers are up 21 percent so far in 2009, compared to the same period the year before.

Reuters:

- American Express Co (AXP) asked on Thursday for permission to repay the $3.4 billion in TARP funds it received, after the U.S. government stress test showed the credit card firm is well capitalized. According to bank regulators' guidance, American Express has to show it can issue long-term debt in the public markets that is not backed by government guarantees in order to repay the TARP funds, the fourth-largest U.S. credit card company said.

- Goldman Sachs Group Inc (GS) said on Thursday it expected to repay "soon" the U.S. Treasury's $10 billion capital investment in the bank after it passed the government's bank stress test.

- China's vice premier Wang Qishan said the global financial crisis is spreading and the economy will get worse before it gets better, in a written article in the Financial Times on Friday. "The global financial crisis is still spreading," he wrote. "The world economy is going to get worse before it gets better, and the situation remains serious."

Financial Times:

- George Schultze will think twice before lending to another troubled company such as Chrysler. Mr Schultze is one of a group of dissident Chrysler creditors who was rebuked by the US president and other lawmakers for tipping the company into bankruptcy. He rejected an offer aimed at slashing Chrysler’s debt in order to allow the carmaker to be sold. Mr Schultze and other investors – some of whom claim to have received death threats – say the deal is unfair because it does not honor their rights as senior lenders to get paid before other claims, such as a union benefit plan, are met. They also argue that the deal was orchestrated by the US government, which held sway over the majority of the other lenders, namely a group of banks, following widespread bail-outs. Already, the verdict on Wall Street and in the conference rooms of investment firms round the country is that, at the very least, the situation raises questions about the solidity of time-honored lending principles and parts of the bankruptcy code. These rules dictate the pecking order for claims to be repaid when a company files for Chapter 11. “It will increase the cost of credit in the capital markets for lots of companies by tinkering with the well- settled priority system,” Mr Schultze said. “Our firm and many other lenders will think twice about lending to companies who have junior creditors that might get an unfair sweetheart deal.” The Chrysler saga comes on the back of concerns by mortgage investors that they, too, are having to take losses they had thought would be absorbed by other creditors. The government has made it easier for people to modify mortgages in an effort to mitigate foreclosures, but investors say the details of new laws in effect push them down the pecking order. Mortgage investors, ranging from hedge funds to pension funds, owning the higher-ranking – or first lien – debts have already blitzed lawmakers, and some are considering taking legal action against the government. Worries about the sanctity of contracts and claims in the US could become a more widespread issue that makes less credit available and raises borrowing costs for companies in general. “Given that so much of total borrowing across all asset classes is first lien in nature, the damage that would occur to the economy as a result of higher first lien borrowing costs resulting from lenders requiring a higher return to compensate them for an unknown interpretation of claim priorities could be substantial,” says Curtis Arledge, co-head of US fixed income at BlackRock, Inc.(BLK) “Many lenders make loans by being investors in US financial markets where contract law has been sacrosanct, and deviation from that could have far-reaching implications to the US economy.” The situation exacerbates the unease that has held some investors back from participating in government schemes such as the term asset-backed securities loan facility and the public-private investment program, which are aimed at boosting the availability of credit and removing toxic assets from banks’ books. “It is particularly important at this stage of the distressed cycle for lenders to have confidence in pre-existing contracts and rules. We are entering a period of record corporate defaults and the need for bankruptcy financing and financing for distressed companies will only continue to grow,” says Greg Peters, global head of credit research at Morgan Stanley. In the Chrysler case, the senior debtholders say they are taking losses while other unsecured creditors, such as the United Autoworkers Union, are getting some recovery even though the senior debt has a first lien on the company’s assets. Senior creditors are getting 28 cents on the dollar in cash; the UAW 55 per cent of a reorganized Chrysler. The other shareholders in the new Chrysler will be the US government and Italy’s Fiat, which is contributing technological know-how instead of cash. “People are pretty comfortable with the bankruptcy rules. What they are trying to do in the Chrysler situation is unprecedented,” says Jeff Manning, a managing director specializing in bankruptcy and restructuring at Trenwith Securities, the investment bank. “This isn’t the way the game is supposed to be played.”

Yonhap News:

- North Korea said it will continue to strengthen its nuclear deterrent after a review of the Obama administration’s policies showed no change in its stance toward the communist nation, citing a spokesman at North Korea’s foreign ministry.

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
- None of note

Night Trading
Asian Indices are -.50% to -.25% on average.
S&P 500 futures +.67%.
NASDAQ 100 futures +.23%.

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Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (EIX)/.67

- (EP)/.27

- (IT)/.12

- (MDC)/-.83

- (MIR)/.57

- (PCLN)/.91

- (BZH)/-1.60

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

- The Change in Non-farm Payrolls for April is estimated at -600K versus -663K in March.

- The Unemployment Rate for April is estimated to rise to 8.9% versus 8.5% in March.

- Average Hourly Earnings for April are estimated to rise .2% versus a .2% gain in March.

10:00 am EST

- Wholesale Inventories for March are estimated to fall 1.0% versus a 1.5% decline in February.

Upcoming Splits
- None of note

Other Potential Market Movers
- The Fed’s Evans speaking, Fed’s Lacker speaking, (AA) shareholders meeting and the (GS) shareholders meeting could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by automaker and commodity stocks in the region. I expect US equities to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Finish Lower, Weighed Down by REIT, Technology, Alternative Energy, Homebuilding Shares

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In Play

Stocks Sharply Lower into Final Hour on Profit Taking, Higher Energy Prices, Rising Long-Term Rates,

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is lower into the final hour on losses in my Financial longs, Technology longs, Retail longs and Medical longs. I took profits in a few longs and added (IWM)/(QQQQ) hedges this morning, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. The tone of the market is very negative as the advance/decline line is substantially lower, most sectors are declining and volume is heavy. Investor anxiety is above average. Today’s overall market action is bearish. The VIX is rising 6.22% and is very high at 34.47. The ISE Sentiment Index is slightly below average at 131.0 and the total put/call is slightly below average at .78. Finally, the NYSE Arms has been running above average most of the day, hitting 1.32 at its intraday peak, and is currently 1.12. The Euro Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index is plunging another 11.32% today to 122.35 basis points. This index is down from its record March 10th high of 208.75. The North American Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index is dropping 6.83% to 141.38 basis points. This index is also well below its Dec. 5^th record high of 285.99. The TED spread is falling another 2.46% to 78 basis points. The TED spread is now down 385 basis points since its all-time high of 463 basis points on October 10th. The 2-year swap spread is dropping another 2.70% to 45.0 basis points. The Libor-OIS spread is falling 2.67% to 75 basis points. The 10-year TIPS spread, a good gauge of inflation expectations, is up 13 basis point to 1.60%, which is down 104 basis points since July 7th. The 10-year TIPS spread bottomed at .65% in October 1998 during the Asian financial crisis and at 1.24% in October 2001 during the technology bubble-bursting meltdown. The 3-month T-Bill is yielding .18%, which is unch. today. For the second day in a row the broad market has mostly ignored positive news. I think most of today’s weakness is related to profit-taking and the rise in the 10-year yield. The US sovereign debt credit default swap is plunging another 24.4% today, which makes the rise in yields less of a concern, in my opinion. Most of the sell-off in bonds is likely related to safe-haven selling after more positive economic data. While yields may rise a bit further into a new higher trading range, I seriously doubt we are about to embark upon a period of soaring interest rates. The AAII % Bulls rose to 44.09%, while the % Bears fell to 33.33% this week, which is a negative. For the second month in a row, equity long/short hedge funds massively underperformed the S&P 500, which rose 9.7% in April versus their -.5% decline. As well, market neutral fell -.85% during the month. Many of these funds were having great relative performance years before the recent rally, which is likely leading to renewed performance anxiety. It appears many are still short or very underexposed to US stocks. Thus, while the major averages are extended short-term and will likely see more weakness, I suspect many funds will use this weakness to cover and add US stock exposure, which should keep any near-term pullback relatively mild in nature. Nikkei futures indicate a -135 open in Japan and DAX futures indicate a -2 open in Germany tomorrow. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-lower into the close from current levels on profit-taking, more shorting, higher energy prices and higher long-term interest rates.