Portfolio Manager's Commentary on Investing and Trading in the U.S. Financial Markets
Thursday, June 25, 2009
Links of Interest
Market Performance Summary
Style Performance
Sector Performance
WSJ Data Center
Top 20 Biz Stories
IBD Breaking News
Movers & Shakers
Upgrades/Downgrades
In Play
NYSE Unusual Volume
NASDAQ Unusual Volume
Hot Spots
Option Dragon
NASDAQ 100 Heatmap
Chart Toppers
Real-Time Intraday Quote/Chart
HFR Global Hedge Fund Indices
Wednesday, June 24, 2009
Thursday Watch
Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- The euro may decline 7% to its weakest level since April as yields on German government bonds drop at a faster pace than those on Treasuries, reducing demand for the 16-nation currency, according to Deutsche Bank AG. “The recovery is stronger in the
- A credit market stress indicator returned to normal this week for the first time since the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings in September, according to analysts at Barclays Capital. The gap, called the skew, between the cost of default protection measured by the Markit iTraxx Europe index of investment-grade companies and the average price of buying credit-default swaps for each of the 125 index constituents turned positive this week and is trading at about 3 basis points, compared with a negative 60 basis points in December, according to Barclays data. “Systemic risk has been taken out and the massive dislocation we saw post-Lehman has normalized,” said Puneet Sharma, head of investment-grade credit strategy at Barclays in
Wall Street Journal:
- Jefferies Group Inc. (JEF) projected second-quarter results well above expectations, saying earnings will come in above $50 million amid record net revenue topping $500 million. The forecast - which many considered a strong sign that others on Wall Street will do well - sent Jefferies shares up 8.8% in late trading to $22.25. Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters had been expecting $25.8 million in earnings and $341.2 million in revenue. The strong guidance comes after Jefferies had been struggling with declining revenue for several quarters, but things started to turn around last quarter as the company ended its five-quarter losing streak and revenue nearly doubled.
- Clashes between security services and demonstrators erupted again late Wednesday in central Tehran, even as one unsuccessful presidential candidate protesting June 12 elections dropped his objections, dealing a significant blow to the opposition's so-far united front. Amid the domestic unrest -- the worst since the Iranian revolution 30 years ago -- Tehran scrambled to project its military might to the rest of the world.
NY Times:
IBD:
CNNMoney.com:
Politico:
Rasmussen:
SanDiegoBusinessJournal:
Reuters:
Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Citigroup:
- Reiterated Buy on (BAC), target $18.
Night Trading
Asian Indices are +.50% to +1.50% on average.
S&P 500 futures unch.
NASDAQ 100 futures -.10%.
Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Pre-market Stock Quote/Chart
Global Commentary
WSJ Intl Markets Performance
Commodity Futures
Top 25 Stories
Top 20 Business Stories
Today in IBD
In Play
Bond Ticker
Economic Preview/Calendar
Earnings Calendar
Who’s Speaking?
Upgrades/Downgrades
Rasmussen Business/Economy Polling
Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (LEN)/.-70
- (JTX)/1.69
- (MKC)/.41
- (CAG)/.41
- (PALM)/-.66
- (FINL)/.01
- (MU)/-.41
- (RBN)/.25
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
- Final 1Q GDP is estimated to decline 5.7% versus a prior estimate of a 5.7% decline.
- Final 1Q Personal Consumption is estimated to rise 1.5% versus a prior estimate of a 1.5% gain.
- Final 1Q GDP Price Index is estimated to rise 2.8% versus a prior estimate of a 2.8% increase.
- Final 1Q Core PCE is estimated to gain 1.5% versus a prior estimate of a 1.5% increase.
- Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to fall to 600K versus 608K the prior week.
- Continuing Claims are expected to rise to 6714K versus 6687K prior.
Upcoming Splits
- None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
- The Fed’s Fisher speaking, (CHS) analyst meeting and the weekly EIA natural gas inventory report could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by technology and mining shares in the region. I expect US equities to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.
Stocks Finish Higher, Boosted by Tech, Gaming, Hospital, Alt Energy and Construction Shares
Market Summary
Top 20 Biz Stories
Today’s Movers
Market Performance Summary
WSJ Data Center
Sector Performance
ETF Performance
Style Performance
Commodity Futures
S&P 500 Gallery View
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Commentary
After-hours Movers
After-hours Real-Time Stock Bid/Ask
After-hours Stock Quote
After-hours Stock Chart
In Play
Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Falling Energy Prices, Short-Covering, Less Economic Angst
Today's Headlines
Bloomberg:
- The Baltic Dry Index fell to its lowest level in almost two weeks in London on speculation demand is weakening. Global trade will plunge 16% this year before expanding 2.1% in 2010, the Paris-based Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said today. Iron Ore is the biggest single dry-bulk commodity hauled at sea and China its largest user. Chinese imports fell 6.2% last month. “We expect the physical market to decline further this week on the back of lower activity and weaker freight market sentiment,” Rikard Vabo and Lars Erich Nilsen, analysts at Oslo-based Fearnley Fonds ASA, a specialist investment bank, wrote today. The index dropped 123 points, or 3.2%, to 3,751 points on the Baltic Exchange.
Wall Street Journal:
NY Times:
NY Post:
LA Times:
Miami Herald:
USA Today:
Publico:
- Jose Manuel Gonzalez-Paramo, a member of the European Central Bank’s executive board, said the central bank will wait and see how its latest unconventional measures work, citing an interview. “We are going to wait and see how the latest measures work,” he said, when asked if there was room for further rate cuts and more unconventional measures. Policy makers haven’t decided if 1% is the lowest level for interest rates, he said. “We are no longer in free fall, but we are still falling,” he said.
China Knowledge Online:
Bear Radar
Style Underperformer:
Large-cap Value (+1.03%)
Sector Underperformers:
HMOs (-.36%), Defense (-.12%) and Restaurants (+.13%)
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
BA, ROS, OSIR, SVU, WXS and AGP
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
1) RMBS 2) CBS 3) TEL 4) XCO 5) MON