Thursday, September 03, 2009

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
Large-Cap Value (+.35%)

Sector Underperformers:
Drugs (-1.12%), HMOs (-1.06%) and Telecom (-.56%)

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
OSIR, AVP, AMED, NUVA, NFLX, LHCG, SXCI, PLCE, FDO, ABM, MCO and MHP


Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
Small-cap Value (+.55%)

Sector Outperformers:
Airlines (+3.41%), Banks (+2.34%) and Road & Rail (+1.75%)

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
AIG, VIP, KB, ING, SLF, MBT, DLM, CBST, CHNG, ZUMZ, COST, CIEN, TSPT, SSRI, OXM, NX, CDE and MTL

Trading Links

BNO Breaking Global News of Note

Google Top Stories

Bloomberg Breaking News

Yahoo Most Popular Biz Stories

MarketWatch News Viewer

Briefing.com In Play

SeekingAlpha Market Currents

WSJ Today’s Markets

Briefing.com Stock Market Update

Stocks On The Move
Upgrades/Downgrades

WSJ Data Center

Markit CDS Market Summary

Commodity Futures

StockCharts Market Performance Summary

Morningstar Style Performance
Sector Performance
NYSE Unusual Volume
NASDAQ Unusual Volume

Hot Spots

Option Dragon

NASDAQ 100 Heatmap

Chart Toppers
CNBC Real-Time Intraday Quote/Chart
HFR Global Hedge Fund Indices

Wednesday, September 02, 2009

Thursday Watch

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Citigroup:

- Reiterated Sell on (WAG), target $27.

- Reiterated Buy on (ALTH), target $15.


CSFB:

- Downgraded (HOV) to Underperform, target $2.


Night Trading
Asian Indices are -.25% to +.50% on average.

Asia Ex-Japan Inv Grade CDS Index 146.0 -.50 basis points.
S&P 500 futures +.02%.
NASDAQ 100 futures +.06%.


Morning Preview

BNO Breaking Global News of Note

Google Top Stories

Bloomberg Breaking News

Yahoo Most Popular Biz Stories

MarketWatch News Viewer

Asian Financial News

European Financial News

Latin American Financial News

MarketWatch Pre-market Commentary

U.S. Equity Preview

TradeTheNews Morning Report

Briefing.com In Play

SeekingAlpha Market Currents

Briefing.com Bond Ticker

US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Stock Quote/Chart
WSJ Intl Markets Performance
Commodity Futures
IBD New America
Economic Preview/Calendar
Earnings Calendar

Conference Calendar

Who’s Speaking?
Upgrades/Downgrades

Politico Headlines
Rasmussen Reports Polling


Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (DLM)/.04

- (CIEN)/-.14

- (JTX)/-.70

- (COO)/.62

- (ESL)/.90

- (ZQK)/.03

- (NAV)/.66


Economic Releases

8:30 am EST:

- Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to fall to 565K versus 570K the prior week.

- Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 6125K versus 6133K prior.


10:00 am EST:

- The ISM Non-Manufacturing report for August is estimated to rise to 48.0 versus 46.4 in July.


Upcoming Splits
- (ABVT) 2-for-1


Other Potential Market Movers
-
The Fed’s Fisher speaking, ICSC Chain Store Sales, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report and the ECB rate decision could also impact trading today.


BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are slightly higher, boosted by mining and technology shares in the region. I expect US equities to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Finish Slightly Lower, Weighed Down by Homebuilding, Bank, REIT and Oil Service Shares

Evening Review
BNO Breaking Global News of Note

Google Top Stories

Bloomberg Breaking News

Yahoo Most Popular Biz Stories

MarketWatch News Viewer

Briefing.com In Play

SeekingAlpha Market Currents

WSJ Today’s Markets
Today’s Movers
StockCharts Market Performance Summary

WSJ Data Center

Sector Performance

ETF Performance

Morningstar Style Performance
Commodity Futures
S&P 500 Gallery View

Timely Economic Charts

Most Recent Guru Stock Picks
CNN PM Market Call

After-hours Stock Commentary

After-hours Movers

After-hours Stock Quote
After-hours Stock Chart

Stocks Mixed into Final Hour as Lower Long-Term Rates and Tech Sector Strength Offset Rising Financial Sector Pessimism, China Bubble Fears

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly higher the final hour on gains in my Technology longs and Biotech longs. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. The tone of the market is neutral as the advance/decline line is about even, sector performance is mixed and volume is about average. Investor anxiety is high. Today’s overall market action is mixed. The VIX is falling 2.09% and is very high at 28.53. The ISE Sentiment Index is around average at 139.0 and the total put/call is slightly above average at .89. Finally, the NYSE Arms has been running above average most of the day, hitting 2.44 at its intraday peak, and is currently .68. The Euro Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index is rising 6.21% today to 90.0 basis points. This index is down from its record March 10th high of 208.75. The North American Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index is rising 1.66% to 122.79 basis points. This index is also well below its Dec. 5th record high of 285.99. The TED spread is falling 2.62% to 20 basis points. The TED spread is now down 446 basis points since its all-time high of 463 basis points on October 10th. The 2-year swap spread is down 9.25% to 34.94 basis points. The Libor-OIS spread is falling 1.19% to 15 basis points. The 10-year TIPS spread, a good gauge of inflation expectations, is falling 5 basis points to 1.61%, which is down 105 basis points since July 7th. The 3-month T-Bill is yielding .13%, which is unch. today. Considering the worse-than-expected economic data today and yesterday’s swoon, today’s action is a bit more constructive. The bears were unable to capitalize on morning weakness and market leading stocks are substantially outperforming. Moreover, the tech sector trades pretty well. On the negative side, the Euro financial sector cds index is surging and (XLF), (IYR) and (XHB) trade “heavy,” despite yesterday’s heavy losses. Oil has been unable to bounce today despite a weaker US dollar and better inventory data. As well, the ongoing strength in bonds could become a concern. Tomorrow’s economic data could also further boost bonds. Nikkei futures indicate a -25 open in Japan and DAX futures indicate a -11 open in Germany tomorrow. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-lower into the close from current levels on more shorting, profit-taking, rising financial sector pessimism, technical selling and China bubble worries.