Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
Small-Cap Value (+.55%)

Sector Underperformers:
Medical Equipment (-.75%), REITs (-.59%) and Steel (-.20%)

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
PSEC, STJ, ARRS, CIEN, PPD and STJ

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
1) SGP 2) EMR 3) MDT 4) MNKD 5) FDO

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
Small-Cap Value (+2.07%)

Sector Outperformers:
Gold (+7.05%), Oil Service (+3.60%) and Semis (+2.82%)

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
ROSE, FFG, TLM, PT, MFC, HES, MICC, SU, CMN, AVCT, NTRI, SRDX, SYKE, CHTT, ECLP, RINO, ILMN, GOLD, HRBN, CHCO, HITK, HMIN, PAAS, RIMM, MLNX, SSRI, INSU, EZPW, OGXI, IAK, DLR, TBH, HIT, GPN, TKF and IGW

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
1) STJ 2) UTHR 3) NTRI 4) BRCD 5) ADSK

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Tuesday Watch

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:

- The Federal Reserve should be forced to identify companies that received loans from the central bank because it can’t demonstrate that borrowers would be harmed by the disclosure, according to lawyers who won a Freedom of Information Act lawsuit. There’s nothing proprietary in the details sought by the Bloomberg News unit of Bloomberg LP, the New York-based company majority-owned by Mayor Michael Bloomberg, attorneys for the company said today in court papers. The filing by Bloomberg opposes the Fed’s request for a court to halt disclosure of information while an appeal proceeds.

- Russian steelmakers’ plans for world domination are in tatters. A spending spree on U.S. mills meant to lift their billionaire owners into the industry’s top rank is instead forcing them to renegotiate debt and write down assets. OAO Severstal, the biggest producer, may sell some of the U.S. plants it bought for almost $4 billion at fire-sale prices or seek bankruptcy for them, Uralsib Financial Corp. analyst Dmitry Smolin said. Outstanding debt at Severstal and next- largest producer Evraz Group SA almost tripled after they ramped up buying in 2006, while the cost of funding debt in Russia has risen by about 50 percent, according to data Bloomberg compiled. “Russian steelmakers’ acquisitions in the U.S. were all unsuccessful,” said Dan Yakub, a Citigroup Inc. analyst in Moscow who recommends investors sell Evraz and who has a “hold” rating on Severstal. “The management wanted a global business, to get more flags on the map. They overestimated the potential of the U.S. market and underestimated the depth of the price collapse.”

- Manufacturers such as Caterpillar Inc.(CAT) and Apple Inc.(AAPL) wouldn’t have to post extra cash as collateral for hedging transactions under legislation proposed to tighten oversight of the $592 trillion derivatives market. The draft bill released by House Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank on Oct. 2, drawn from Obama administration proposals, would require the most common and actively traded over-the-counter derivatives contracts to be bought and sold on exchanges or processed through a regulated trading platform. It would impose new rules and collateral requirements, except on so-called end users such as Caterpillar.

- MGM Mirage(MGM) and Dubai World, owners of the largest development on the Las Vegas Strip, cut the price of condominiums at the CityCenter project by 30 percent for existing buyers to reflect the collapse in housing prices. The reductions will be offered at residences at Mandarin Oriental, Veers Towers and Vdara Condo Hotel, Las Vegas-based MGM Mirage said today in a statement.

- American International Group Inc. Chief Executive Officer Robert Benmosche’s $10.5 million annual pay package was approved by Kenneth Feinberg, the Obama administration’s special master on compensation. Feinberg completed his review after New York-based AIG provided him with details of Benmosche’s previous compensation and pay comparisons with other leaders, according to a Treasury Department letter dated Oct. 2. Benmosche, named CEO of the bailed-out insurer in August, will get a $7 million salary and as much as $3.5 million in long-term incentives.

- Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Richard Fisher said that the U.S. is likely to undergo “a very slow process” of recovery and probably won’t endure a double-dip recession. “We’re going to have to be tolerant of slower growth than we’re used to,” Fisher said in a televised interview today with PBS’ Nightly Business Report. When asked whether the U.S. might fall back into recession soon after recovering, Fisher, 60, said, “I don’t consider that a likely scenario right now.”

- Samsung Electronics Co., Asia’s biggest maker of chips, flat screens and mobile phones, reported third-quarter earnings more than doubled, exceeding analysts’ estimates, helped by a rebound in prices. Operating profit jumped to as high as 4.3 trillion won ($3.7 billion), compared with 1.48 trillion won a year earlier, the Suwon, South Korea-based company said in a statement today. Samsung climbed as much as 1.9 percent in Seoul trading after the preliminary results beat the 3.85 trillion won median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of 10 analysts.

Wall Street Journal:

- U.S. light-vehicle sales are beginning to show signs of improvement, according to an automobile market researcher that forecasts sales will jump 9.6% in 2010 to 11.2 million. R.L. Polk & Co., in raising its 2010 forecast by 400,000 vehicles, said the bottoming out of the housing market, expansion in manufacturing and improved consumer sentiment were signs the economic recovery was under way. "We are confident the worst is behind us, said Dave Goebel, a Polk consultant. "We also believe the 'cash for clunkers' program will have little to no impact on 2010 sales, because the overall economic outlook has improved since earlier this year and this serves auto makers well as they bring new models into their showrooms." A number of analysts, including Global Insight Data, have said auto sales, on track to hit the lowest levels in decades, will begin to recover next year.

- Democratic lawmakers in a handful of states are facing pressure from Republicans to distance themselves from the Service Employees International Union as a result of its ties to Acorn. Republicans in Kansas, Virginia and Illinois in recent weeks have called on union-backed Democrats to return SEIU campaign contributions, citing the close connection between the union and the community organizing group, whose full name is the Association of Community Organizations for Reform Now. The Virginia Republican Party urged Democratic gubernatorial candidate Creigh Deeds to return campaign contributions from the SEIU, one of the biggest financial backers of Democratic candidates. Mr. Deeds received a total of $200,000 from the SEIU in 2009, according to the Virginia Public Access Project, which tracks campaign contributions in the state. "The close, almost symbiotic, relationship that SEIU and Acorn have call into question the propriety of being so closely involved with this union," said Tim Murtaugh, spokesman for the Virginia GOP.

- Financial industry groups eager to shape congressional regulatory overhaul proposals plan to press U.S. House lawmakers Tuesday on the registration of hedge funds, scaling back mandatory arbitration clauses, and balancing oversight of investment advisers and broker-dealers. Representatives from the private-equity and hedge-fund universe will be among those testifying before the House Financial Services Committee on a range of proposals to boost investor protections and tighten oversight of investment funds that typically fall outside rigorous government purview. Highlighting the difficulty for policy makers attempting to shepherd an ambitious financial regulatory system overhaul through Congress this year, the message from industry participants shows few areas of solid agreement. "Requiring open-ended disclosures to these third parties, as the draft contemplates, is highly problematic," Douglas Lowenstein, president and chief executive of the Private Equity Council, said in his prepared remarks.

- Google Inc.(GOOG), which has long championed the belief that advertising should be less about art and more about science, is working harder to embrace its inner creative side. As it searches for new growth, the company has in recent months focused more on creating custom ad campaigns spanning multiple Google services for big spenders like Hewlett-Packard Co. and Ford Motor Co. Since the summer, Google has helped J.C. Penney Co. and PepsiCo Inc.'s Quaker Oats unit launch ad campaigns on YouTube and across the hundreds of thousands of sites across which Google sells display ads, along with search ads. As part of the shift, Google is thinking up and tailoring more ad campaigns in close consultation with ad agencies. In May, the Mountain View, Calif., Internet giant altered its sales structure to work more closely with ad agencies and react more quickly to trends by organizing sales staff by industry, like automotive and technology. It also created a senior position responsible for improving communication with the largest ad agencies.

- The Obama administration is expected on Tuesday to unveil an outline of sweeping changes for the nation's immigration-detention system, saying it will decide whom to lock up and for how long based on the danger and flight risk posed by detainees. Officials familiar with the report said the administration is pledging to revise detention standards and will turn to the private sector for ideas, asking for proposals to construct two model facilities. Until now, the Obama administration has been reluctant to revise detention standards, which were updated late in the administration of former President George W. Bush. The immigration detention system expanded dramatically during the Bush years as the government took a much tougher line against illegal immigrants. The moves come in response to criticisms of the system over issues including the quality of medical treatment given to detainees and their inability to access basic services, such as phones to speak with lawyers.

- In President Obama's Washington, medical specialists are slightly more popular than the H1N1 virus. Compared to bread-and-butter primary care doctors, specialists cost more to train and make more use of expensive procedures and technology—and therefore cost the government more money. Even so, the quiet war Democrats are waging on specialists is astonishing.

MarketWatch.com:
- The Reserve Bank of Australia Tuesday surprised by raising its policy rate by a quarter-point to 3.25% in response to stronger-than-expected economic conditions. The increase in the cash rate marks the RBA's first rate increase since March 2008 and makes it the first central bank in a major developed economy to hike rates. Several analysts had expected the RBA to commence rate hikes a few months later. Governor Glenn Stevens wrote in a statement that the "basis for such a low interest rate setting has now passed" and that it was now prudent to "begin gradually lessening the stimulus provided by monetary policy."

- Americans may be wary of the eye-popping figures the federal government paid out in an effort to keep the recession from freefalling into a depression. But in the context of health reform, close to a trillion dollars may not be strong enough medicine over the next decade to extend coverage to the uninsured and make health insurance affordable for people who soon may be required to have it, some experts say. Karen Pollitz, project director of the Georgetown University Health Policy Institute, said she understands a feeling of "trillion-dollar fatigue" in the wake of the financial bail-out and stimulus package aimed at reviving a moribund economy. At the same time, the goals of health reform can't be met with $1 trillion, she said. "All the bills that are on the table are too small. Everybody's kind of in the ball park of a trillion dollars. That's what the Clinton plan cost 15 years ago," she said of the last attempt at comprehensive reform in 1994, when per-person health-care spending was about half of the $7,300 it is today and the U.S. had 38 million uninsured compared with today's 46 million.

CNBC.com:
- Fertilizer maker Mosaic(MOS) posted a 91 percent drop in fiscal first-quarter profit on Monday.

ABCNews:

- Will Wall Street Bet on Your Life? After Dr. Eddie Powell lost both his legs to a hospital infection, he desperately needed financial help to support his practice and three children in medical school. So the 61-year-old did what more and more cash-strapped Baby Boomers are doing these days: He sold his life insurance. "For close to a million dollars of insurance, I got a hundred and some thousand dollars," Powell said. Coventry, a life settlement company, took Powell's policies, bundled them with others and sold them to banks or hedge funds as investments. Since they pay the premium every month, the sooner he dies the more money they will make. And now, Wall Street wants in on the action and the life settlement industry welcomes the potential spike in business. For critics, the move to securitize the life insurance industry harkens back to the early days of the subprime mortgage boom. That crisis began when banks gave loans to people who couldn't afford them, but it got much worse when Wall Street used exotic forms of investments (called collateralized debt obligations) to bet that those loans would go bad. With Wall Street's trillions in play, banks had more incentive to issue more subprime loans. When those loans went bad, the investors got rich but the housing market -- and the entire economy -- nearly collapsed. If Wall Street is allowed to bet on the early death of seniors or the terminally ill, some worry it could not only strain the insurance industry, but also create a market for shady brokers to prey on the sick and elderly while adversely affecting the health policy of the nation. "People who have bets on early death will find themselves lobbying against effective health care," said Michael Greenberger, a University of Maryland law professor and former director with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. "There's no two ways about it, this is an accident waiting to happen in terms of investment…. It's setting up the same wild financial infrastructure that turns out to be nothing more than a casino, unrelated to the underlying transaction." As for Dr. Powell, he says he regrets his decision to sell his life insurance for pennies on the dollar. "I made a stupid mistake," he said. Every few months, a representative from Coventry calls to see if he is still breathing. He plans to keep answering for a long time. "My grandma lived to be 115…you've got a long time before Eddie Powell dies," he said. But if Coventry gets its way, there will soon be plenty of investors on Wall Street hoping, and betting, he is wrong.

Politico:

- Rep. Steven King (R-Iowa), a religious conservative, wants President Obama to dump "school safety czar" Kevin Jennings, claiming the former history teacher promoted "homosexuality" in elementary schools by penning a forward for a book titled [I kid you not] "The Queering of Elementary Education."

- The subject line of the e-mail said, “Heard anything about Rangel?” And the text of the message delivered: “Rumor is that he steps down as w&m chair tonight. It’s been floating around K St today.” That one came from a lobbyist at a prominent Washington firm — about a week before a Republican financial lobbyist called POLITICO to report that Charlie Rangel was “toast” as House Ways and Means Committee chairman, to be replaced at any minute by a more junior Democrat on the panel. A month later, Rangel still has his gavel, and Democratic insiders say that the lobbyist’s rumors — and a new Republican resolution aimed at ousting the chairman — will remain wishful thinking until House Speaker Nancy Pelosi decides that it’s time for Rangel to lose his chairmanship. And that’s not going to happen, they say, unless the House ethics committee, which has been investigating Rangel for more than a year, comes down hard against him.

Atlanta Business Chronicle:

- Atlanta city officials confirmed Monday they have reached an agreement in principle on a new master lease that would keep the world’s largest airline from moving capacity out of the world’s busiest airport. The deal, if approved by the air carrier and Atlanta City Council, would ensure Delta Air Lines Inc.(DAL) keeps its fortress hub intact at Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport through at least September 2017. A new lease also is a boost for the massive International Terminal construction project, which has been threatened by the brouhaha between Delta and the city. It could also open the door for other carriers to gain a toehold in Atlanta.

The Business Insider:

- We've highlighted before how the United States Oil ETF (USO) can be hurt rolling its positions when oil is in "contango", ie. when future oil prices are higher than spot or near term prices. Unfortunately for USO, oil contango has been the norm lately despite its opposite, "backwardation", having generally been the case for the oil market in the past.

- Letterman Extortionist Lawyer Fights Back: Dave A “Master At Manipulating Audiences.”

Reuters:

- North Korea is in the final stages of restoring facilities at its Yongbyon nuclear complex, South Korea's Yonhap news agency quoted a government source as saying on Tuesday. "We have obtained indications that point to restoration work being in the final stages," the unnamed South Korean government source was quoted as saying. "The work to restore nuclear facilities at Yongbyon has been ongoing since early this year."

North Korea had walked away from a deal to end its nuclear programme citing what it called U.S. intentions to attack it but its leader Kim Jong-il said this week his country was willing to return to dialogue.

- Fitness-products company NutriSystem Inc (NTRI) said it would start selling its Nutrisystem 14-Day starter weight loss program on Wal-Mart Stores Inc's (WMT) shelves from the first week of October, sending its shares up 22 percent after the bell.

- Hewlett-Packard Co (HPQ) may get acquisitive again despite its recent absence from the technology sector's M&A scene, analysts said, and Brocade Communications Systems Inc (BRCD) may a prime target. Brocade is putting itself up for sale, and HP has looked at the company's assets but has not made a formal bid, sources told Reuters. Brocade and HP declined to comment.
- A tepid economic recovery should allow the U.S. Federal Reserve to keep interest rates at rock-bottom lows for a prolonged period, New York Federal Reserve President William Dudley said on Monday. Because the U.S. economy faces many headwinds, including an anemic labor market and a fragile banking system, Dudley said, inflation will not become a problem in the foreseeable future.

Financial Times:

- Citigroup(C) is moving further away from its 11-year focus on marrying brokerage and banking by outsourcing some investment services offered to US branch customers to outside advisers and shifting up to 550 employees to new roles. The move in Citi’s wealth management business, which manages about $30bn on behalf of customers, underlines the desire by the troubled bank to focus on larger businesses and overhaul its strategy in the low-growth US retail banking market. Under the new plan - which was announced on Monday - Citi will begin referring some wealthy customers who currently deal with 550 brokers based in some of its 1,000-plus branches to independent financial advisers. Under the new strategy, Citi will receive a referral fee for each customer they direct to an independent adviser. Citi will also retrain some of its existing brokers to be part of internal teams of fee-based financial consultants as well as helping customers to choose between internal and external advisers. The changes - to be implemented next year - will have practical implications for Citi’s customers. Financial advisers levy fees based on the assets held by each customer while brokers charge commissions depending on the number and value of trades they execute and products they sell. Citi plans to eliminate all commission-based compensation by 2011.

- Nomura is poised almost to double its headcount in the US in an expansion that highlights the Japanese institution’s ambition to transform itself into one of the top five global investment banks. Nomura’s hiring spree will increase staff in the US to 1,200 by the end of this fiscal year next March, twice the number on its American payroll in January, 2009.

The Independent:

- In the most profound financial change in recent Middle East history, Gulf Arabs are planning – along with China, Russia, Japan and France – to end dollar dealings for oil, moving instead to a basket of currencies including the Japanese yen and Chinese yuan, the euro, gold and a new, unified currency planned for nations in the Gulf Co-operation Council, including Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Qatar. Secret meetings have already been held by finance ministers and central bank governors in Russia, China, Japan and Brazil to work on the scheme, which will mean that oil will no longer be priced in dollars. The plans, confirmed to The Independent by both Gulf Arab and Chinese banking sources in Hong Kong, may help to explain the sudden rise in gold prices, but it also augurs an extraordinary transition from dollar markets within nine years.

Globe and Mail:

- BCE Inc.'s Bell Canada and Telus Corp. will begin selling the iPhone next month, breaking the stranglehold on the iconic device that rival Rogers Communications Inc. has held for more than a year. The country's two largest incumbent telecom companies, under pressure to re-ignite growth as new wireless competitors begin operations this year, are banking on Apple Inc.'s ground-breaking smart phone to help them sign up bigger-spending customers and shift the balance of power in Canada's mobile market. Bell announced Monday that it will launch national service in November on the $1-billion next-generation wireless network it has been building with Telus, months ahead of schedule. The project extends the two companies' existing third-generation (3G) networks to include the same technology standard employed by Rogers, the nation's largest cellphone company.

Commercial Times:

- Acer Inc. expects is fourth-quarter consolidated revenue to rise 10% from the third quarter on a recovery in the economy and demand spurred by the Microsoft Corp. Windows 7 Operating System, citing company Chairman J.T. Wang. With rising demand for laptops, there are also component shortages in graphic card chips, flat panels and hard drives, citing Wang.

The Nation:

- Negotiations to finalize an ambitious international climate-change deal have not made any progress at the midway point of a two-week meeting in Bangkok. "Two months to Copenhagen and we are not making any progress in Bangkok," Chinese ambassador Yu Qingtai, who is special representative to the UN's climate-change talks said yesterday.

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Citigroup:

- Rated (TIF) Buy, target $50.

Sanford Bernstein:

- Rated (RIMM) Underperform, target $60.

Wells Fargo:

- Rated (MDRX) Outperform.

- Upgraded (DFT) to Outperform.

Night Trading
Asian Indices are unch. to +1.50% on average.

Asia Ex-Japan Inv Grade CDS Index 110.0 -10.50 basis points.
S&P 500 futures +.02%.
NASDAQ 100 futures +.18%.

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Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (PBG)/1.07

- (CHTT)/1.21

- (YUM)/.58

Economic Releases

- None of note

Upcoming Splits
- None of note

Other Potential Market Movers
- The Fed’s Hoenig speaking, Treasury’s 3-year Note Auction, weekly retail sales reports, William Blair Emerging Growth Stock Conference, ABC Consumer Confidence reading, (RHT) analyst meeting, (VQ) analyst day, (IRM) investor day, JMP Securities Healthcare Conference, (OKE) investor conference, Deutsche Bank Energy Conference and the Johnson Rice Energy Conference could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US equities to open modestly mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Finish Near Session Highs, Boosted By Gaming, Hospital, Financial, Commodity, Homebuilding, REIT and Disk Drive Shares

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Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Diminishing Economic Fear, Less Financial Sector Pessimism, Short-Cvoering, Technical Buying

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly higher into the final hour on gains in my Technology longs, Medical longs, Biotech longs and Financial longs. I covered all my (IWM)/(QQQQ) hedges and some of my (EEM) short today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is very positive as the advance/decline line is substantially higher, almost every sector is rising and volume is around average. Investor anxiety is very high. Today’s overall market action is bullish. The VIX is falling 7.11% and is high at 26.65. The ISE Sentiment Index is below average at 115.0 and the total put/call is around average at .80. Finally, the NYSE Arms has been running below average most of the day, hitting .50 at its intraday trough, and is currently .60. The Euro Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index is falling -3.45% today to 74.16 basis points. This index is down from its record March 10th high of 208.75. The North American Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index is declining -6.61% to 102.53 basis points. This index is also well below its Dec. 5^th record high of 285.99. The TED spread is unch. at 20 basis points. The TED spread is now down 445 basis points since its all-time high of 463 basis points on October 10th. The 2-year swap spread is unch. at 34.75 basis points. The Libor-OIS spread is up +1 basis point to 13 basis points. The 10-year TIPS spread, a good gauge of inflation expectations, is up +2 basis points to 1.73%, which is down 94 basis points since July 7th. The 3-month T-Bill is yielding .09%, which is unch. today. The S&P 500 found meaningful technical support right at its 50-day moving average. The MS Cyclical Index is substantially outperforming today, jumping +3.11%. Gaming, REIT, Hospital, Bank, Disk Drive, Steel, Gold and Coal shares are especially strong, rising +2.75%+. The big decline in the North American Inv. Grd. CDS Index is a large positive. As well, the (XLF) trades very well, surging +3.22% to session highs. I suspect we will see strength in Asia and Europe materialize before the US opening bell tomorrow, which could lead to further gains here. Nikkei futures indicate an +121 open in Japan and DAX futures indicate an +35 open in Germany tomorrow. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close from current levels on short-covering, less financial sector pessimism, diminishing economic fear, technical buying and bargain-hunting.