Tuesday, October 27, 2009

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
Small-Cap Growth (-1.44%)

Sector Underperformers:
Gaming (-6.05%), Steel (-4.11%) and Road & Rail (-3.05%)

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
PCAR, PVTB, BIDU, WTFC, STEC, TSRA, CLF, BCS, BK, AGNC, SGMS, EPIQ, CRDN, POOL, ARRS, ININ, HMIN, RCII, WYNN, ICON, SOHU, CAAS, FELE, SCHN, AMZN, WINN, CRI, OMI, GLP, WNS, DTG, WMS and ING


Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
1) XL 2) NBR 3) PCU 4) MCK 5) MTG

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
Large-Cap Value (+.73%)

Sector Outperformers:
HMOs (+2.35%), Energy (+1.28%) and Drugs (+1.10%)

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
COG, CNC, SFY, BP, VRTX, IMA, TMK, GSK, CRS, UMPQ, SBNY, CS, MDVN, PODD, LULU, EVVV, LIFE, VECO, HSII, AAWW, SBNY, CPLA, IACI, UBSI, ITRI, VRTX, BEAV, CAKE, BIIB, CR and AXE


Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
1) PCAR 2) ILMN 3) BSX 4) JCI 5) NVTL

Trading Links

BNO Breaking Global News of Note

Google Top Stories

Bloomberg Breaking News

Yahoo Most Popular Biz Stories

MarketWatch News Viewer

Briefing.com In Play

SeekingAlpha Market Currents

WSJ Today’s Markets

Briefing.com Stock Market Update

Stocks On The Move
Upgrades/Downgrades

WSJ Data Center

Markit CDS Market Summary

Commodity Futures

StockCharts Market Performance Summary

Morningstar Style Performance
Sector Performance
NYSE Unusual Volume
NASDAQ Unusual Volume

Hot Spots

Option Dragon

NASDAQ 100 Heatmap

Chart Toppers
CNBC Real-Time Intraday Quote/Chart
HFR Global Hedge Fund Indices

Monday, October 26, 2009

Tuesday Watch

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Citigroup:

- Downgraded (SE) to Sell, target $18.

- Reiterated Buy on (VFC), target $82.


Goldman Sachs:

- Upgraded (CAKE) to Buy.


Kaufman:

- Rated (INTC) Buy, target $25.


Night Trading
Asian Indices are -1.50% to -.75% on average.

Asia Ex-Japan Inv Grade CDS Index 106.0 +9.0 basis points.
S&P 500 futures -.23%.
NASDAQ 100 futures -.33%.


Morning Preview

BNO Breaking Global News of Note

Google Top Stories

Bloomberg Breaking News

Yahoo Most Popular Biz Stories

MarketWatch News Viewer

Asian Financial News

European Financial News

Latin American Financial News

MarketWatch Pre-market Commentary

U.S. Equity Preview

TradeTheNews Morning Report

Briefing.com In Play

SeekingAlpha Market Currents

Briefing.com Bond Ticker

US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Stock Quote/Chart
WSJ Intl Markets Performance
Commodity Futures
IBD New America
Economic Preview/Calendar
Earnings Calendar

Conference Calendar

Who’s Speaking?
Upgrades/Downgrades

Politico Headlines
Rasmussen Reports Polling


Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (WYNN)/.16

- (IACI)/.00

- (X)/-2.88

- (VLO)/-.32

- (AMTD)/.24

- (CPLA)/.51

- (JCI)/.51

- (LLL)/1.85

- (UA)/.44

- (AKS)/.00

- (MCK)/.00

- (CEPH)/1.41

- (CRI)/.67

- (DV)/.65

- (ADVS)/.14

- (MEE)/.18

- (JLL)/.59

- (ILMN)/.20

- (NSC)/.78

- (APOL)/1.02

- (V)/.72

- (NSC)/.78

- (PNRA)/.58

- (BWLD)/.38


Economic Releases

10:00 am EST

- Consumer Confidence for October is estimated to rise to 53.5 versus 53.1 in September.


Upcoming Splits
- None of Note


Other Potential Market Movers
-
The Treasury’s Geithner speaking, S&P/CS Home Price Index, Richmond Fed Manufacturing, weekly retail sales reports, Treasury’s 2-year Note auction, API energy inventory data, (LTD) investor conference, (ELX) analyst meeting, Wells Fargo Consumer Conference, (BKS) investor presentation, BIOCOM Investor Conference and the ABC Consumer Confidence reading could also impact trading today.


BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by financial and commodity shares in the region. I expect US equities to open modestly lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Finish Lower, Weighed Down by HMO, Commodity and Financial Shares

Evening Review
BNO Breaking Global News of Note

Google Top Stories

Bloomberg Breaking News

Yahoo Most Popular Biz Stories

MarketWatch News Viewer

Briefing.com In Play

SeekingAlpha Market Currents

WSJ Today’s Markets
Today’s Movers
StockCharts Market Performance Summary

WSJ Data Center

Sector Performance

ETF Performance

Morningstar Style Performance
Commodity Futures
S&P 500 Gallery View

Timely Economic Charts

Most Recent Guru Stock Picks
CNN PM Market Call

After-hours Stock Commentary

After-hours Movers

After-hours Stock Quote
After-hours Stock Chart

Stocks Falling into Final Hour on Financial Sector Worries, Economic Concerns, Healthcare Reform Fears, Higher Long-Term Rates

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly lower into the final hour on losses in my Biotech longs and Financial longs. I added (IWM)/(QQQQ) hedges and added to my (EEM) short this morning, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. The tone of the market is very negative as the advance/decline line is substantially lower, almost every sector is declining and volume is slightly above average. Investor anxiety is high. Today’s overall market action is bearish. The VIX is rising +10.69% and is high at 24.72. The ISE Sentiment Index is below average at 114.0 and the total put/call is around average at .89. Finally, the NYSE Arms has been running very high most of the day, hitting 2.83 at its intraday peak, and is currently 2.23. The Euro Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index is rising +.10% today to 61.83 basis points. This index is down from its record March 10th high of 208.75. The North American Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index is falling -.05% to 99.70 basis points. This index is also well below its Dec. 5th record high of 285.99. The TED spread is unch. at 23 basis points. The TED spread is now down 441 basis points since its all-time high of 463 basis points on October 10th. The 2-year swap spread is rising +3.77% to 37.88 basis points. The Libor-OIS spread is up +1 basis point to 12 basis points. The 10-year TIPS spread, a good gauge of inflation expectations, is unch. at 2.0%, which is down 65 basis points since July 7th. The 3-month T-Bill is yielding .05%, which is unch. today. Cyclicals are especially weak today, falling -2.2%. Moreover, (XLF) has been very heavy throughout the day. As well, commodity-related stocks are very weak on today’s US Dollar reversal higher. “Growth” stocks are substantially outperforming “value” shares for the second day in a row. I suspect the dollar will strengthen further in the near-term and growth will continue to outperform value. On the positive side, Road & Rail, Retail, REIT, Medical, Computer Service and Internet stocks are either just slightly down or higher on the day. A number of key market leaders are also substantially outperforming the broad market. It is also a positive that CDS indices remain a bit heavy. Asian shares will likely come under pressure tonight, which could lead to further weakness in the US tomorrow morning. Nikkei futures indicate a -142 open in Japan and DAX futures indicate an +2 open in Germany tomorrow. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-lower into the close from current levels on economic worries, more shorting, higher long-term rates, healthcare reform worries, profit-taking and financial sector pessimism.