BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is lower into the final hour on losses in my Technology longs, Biotech longs and Financial longs. I added to my (IWM)/(QQQQ) hedges this morning, thus leaving the Portfolio 50% net long. The tone of the market is very negative as the advance/decline line is substantially lower, almost every sector is declining and volume is above average. Investor anxiety is very high. Today’s overall market action is bearish. The VIX is rising +8.78% and is very high at 27.01. The ISE Sentiment Index is below average at 126.0 and the total put/call is high at 1.13. Finally, the NYSE Arms has been running above average most of the day, hitting 1.82 at its intraday peak, and is currently 1.13. The Euro Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index is rising +6.62% today to 67.0 basis points. This index is down from its record March 10th high of 208.75. The North American Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index is rising +4.36% to 106.48 basis points. This index is also well below its Dec. 5th record high of 285.99. The TED spread is unch. at 22 basis points. The TED spread is now down 442 basis points since its all-time high of 463 basis points on October 10th. The 2-year swap spread is falling -15.28% to 31.88 basis points. The Libor-OIS spread is up +1 basis point to 13 basis points. The 10-year TIPS spread, a good gauge of inflation expectations, is down -3 basis points to 1.97%, which is down 68 basis points since July 7th. The 3-month T-Bill is yielding .06%, which is unch. today.Cyclicals are getting pounded today with the MS Cyclical Index dropping another 4.3%.This index is down almost 9% in four trading days and is breaking convincingly below its 50-day moving average.Small-caps are also displaying relative weakness.Coal, Alt Energy, Oil Tanker, Oil Service, Gold, Steel, Hospital, Homebuilding, Gaming, Education and Airline shares are especially weak today, falling 4%+.(IYR)/(XLF) have been heavy throughout the day.The US dollar continues to trade well. It is also a negative to see the jumps in various CDS indices.On the positive side, gauges of investor angst are very high today given a -1.0% DJIA decline.Road & Rail, Restaurant, Drug, Telecom and Computer Service shares are all just slightly lower or even higher on the day.Some market leaders are finding support around current levels.Part of today’s decline is likely due to Goldman’s call for a below expectations GDP report tomorrow.I expect 3Q GDP to come in at or slightly below estimates of a 3.2% gain.Investors shouldn’t be too surprised by tomorrow’s report.Given how much the S&P is up this quarter, profit-taking by bulls and bears putting out new shorts isn’t that surprising at quarter’s end.This pressure should subside by day’s end tomorrow or Friday morning.I am closing a few of my hedges into this latest weakness. Nikkei futures indicate a -155 open in Japan and DAX futures indicate a -6 open in Germany tomorrow. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close from current levels on short-covering, bargain-hunting, lower energy prices and declining long-term rates.
- Sales of new U.S. homes unexpectedly fell in September as the end of a tax credit for first-time homebuyers approached. Purchases dropped 3.6 percent to a 402,000 annual pace that was lower than the most pessimistic economist’s forecast, according to Commerce Department figures issued today in Washington. The median price of a new house fell to $204,800, compared with $225,200 at the same time last year. The value was up 2.5 percent from the prior month, reflecting a plunge in the share of houses selling for less than $150,000, a category that often includes first-time buyers. Sales fell 11 percent in the West and 10 percent in the South. Purchases in the Midwest jumped 34 percent and were unchanged in the Northeast. Builders had 251,000 houses on the market last month, the fewest since November 1982. It would take 7.5 months to sell all homes at the current sales pace, the same as in August.
- Crude oil fell more than $2 a barrel after a government report showed an unexpected increase in U.S. gasoline stockpiles and crude supplies rose to a two-month high.
Gasoline inventories climbed 1.62 million barrels last week, the Energy Department said. A 1 million-barrel decline was forecast, according to a Bloomberg News survey. Crude inventories rose as imports advanced the first time in five weeks. Oil also dropped as the dollar gained against the euro. “The gasoline number was a big surprise and makes people less optimistic about the economy and demand,” said Sean Brodrick, natural resource analyst with Weiss Research in Jupiter, Florida. Fuel demand dropped 0.8 percent to an average of 18.5 million barrels a day last week, the report showed. Gasoline consumption fell 1 percent to 8.86 million barrels a day. “We continue to see evidence of weak demand and excess supply,” said Antoine Halff, head of energy research at Newedge USA LLC in New York. “The gasoline number reflects both a lack of demand and an increase in refinery output.” Refineries operated at 81.8 percent of capacity, up 0.7 percentage point from the previous week, the report showed. Refiners produced 8.83 million barrels of gasoline a day, up 4.5 percent from the prior week. Inventories of crude oil rose 778,000 barrels to 339.9 million last week, the report showed. The gain left supplies 9.1 percent higher than the five-year average for the period. Imports of crude oil increased 2.2 percent to 8.89 million barrels a day last week, the report showed. Fuel imports climbed 6.3 percent to 2.54 million barrels a day.
- Swine Flu Vaccine Scarcity Stirs Anger in US Communities.San Diego health officials said that the county expected to run out of swine flu vaccine yesterday after receiving only 25 percent of the 411,000 doses anticipated for October, as reports of shortages nationwide mount. San Diego health officials said that the county expected to run out of swine flu vaccine yesterday after receiving only 25 percent of the 411,000 doses anticipated for October, as reports of shortages nationwide mount.
- Mortgage applications in the U.S. fell to a two-month low, hurt by declines in purchases that may reflect concern over the expiration of government tax credits. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s index of applications to purchase a home or refinance a loan decreased 12 percent to 562.3 in the week ended Oct. 23, the third consecutive drop. The group’s refinancing gauge fell 16 percent, while the index of purchases declined 5.2 percent.
- US companies have retreated .7% on average in the trading session following their earnings reports this month, the worst performance in Bespoke Investment Group LLC data going back to 2001.Stocks are retreating even though a record 82.3% of S&P 500 companies have beaten the average analyst estimate, which would be the biggest full-quarter proportion in 16 years of Bloomberg data.
- The protests at the American Bankers Association Conference in Chicago are over, but the campaign of venting anger and criticism against the nation’s largest banks continues. Today, protesters in Oregon and Washington are planning to walk into local branches of J.P. Morgan Chase(JPM) and cancel their personal checking and savings accounts. The act is meant to protest CEO James Dimon’s opposition to the Obama Administration’s proposal to create a new consumer protection agency. [Dimon has said the new agency would create cumbersome, costly restrictions and the banks will likely pass those costs onto the consumers.] The protest groups urge the public to switch their accounts in big banks to community banks. But the financial crisis has tarred small banks, too. Many are reeling from their own excessively risky lending practices, mostly to commercial real-estate developers. About half of the 106 banks to fail this year are small banks with $250 million or less in assets. We spoke with James Mumm, Director of Organizing at National People’s Action, one of the groups heading the Chicago protests, in addition to the Service Employees International Union.
- U.S. retirement asset rose $1 trillion in the second quarter, according to the Investment Company Institute, rising 7.4% and making up 34% of household assets. The increase to $14.4 trillion came as the stock market rebounded from the lowest point in more than a decade in early March. The S&P 500 stock index climbed 16% during the quarter, while the Citigroup Broad Investment Grade Bond Index gained 1.2%. Individual retirement accounts held the largest amount of U.S. retirement assets as of June 30 at $3.7 trillion, according to the fund-industry group. Just behind were employer-sponsored defined-contribution plans at $3.6 trillion, of which $2.5 trillion was in 401(k)s. The ICI said 45% of IRA assets and 48% of defined-contribution assets were in mutual funds. Life-cycle, or target-date funds, continued to attract increased investment, rising 22% during the quarter to $194 billion.
- The Federal Reserve Bank of New York said Tuesday that it had no choice but to instruct American International Group last November to reimburse the full amount of what it owed to big banks on derivatives contracts, a move that ended months of effort by the insurance giant to negotiate lower payments. Fed officials offered the explanation in a rare response to a media report after Bloomberg News said that the New York Fed, led at the time by then-President Timothy F. Geithner, directed AIG to make the payments after it received a massive government bailout. The officials said AIG lost its leverage in demanding a better deal once the company had been saved from bankruptcy. Lawmakers and financial analysts critical of the payouts say it amounted to a back-door bailout for big banks. AIG, the recipient of a $180 billion federal rescue package, ended up paying $14 billion to Goldman Sachs(GS) over months and $8.5 billion to Deutsche Bank, among others. Before the New York Fed intervened, AIG had been trying to persuade the firms to take discounts. The precise cost to taxpayers of these decisions is difficult to determine. Bloomberg, quoting an industry source, reported Tuesday that AIG was aiming to pay just 40 percent of the $32.5 billion it owed to the banks. Using those figures, the report concluded that the government needlessly overpaid $13 billion.
- More U.S. manufacturers are optimistic about the economy, but poor demand remains a top concern, according to a survey. Forty-eight percent of U.S.-based industrial manufacturers surveyed by PricewaterhouseCoopers in the third quarter said they were optimistic about the U.S. economy over the next year, while only 43 percent had said so in the second quarter. The largest number of manufacturers polled -- 45 percent -- did not expect their businesses to regain strength until the second half of 2010, the survey showed. Twenty-three percent said they expected business to pick up in the first half of 2010 but 17 percent believed their companies were unlikely to recover until 2011.
- GMAC Inc on Wednesday launched a new government-backed bond sale ahead of a regulatory deadline next month that will test the company's capital levels and ability to absorb losses. GMAC came to market with a $2.9 billion three-year government-guaranteed note issue expected to price as soon as Wednesday, according to IFR, a Thomson Reuters service. The bond sale comes amid conversations the Detroit-based firm, the traditional lender to General Motors Co, is having with the U.S. Treasury about a possible third cash infusion to its GMAC Financial Services Inc unit. GMAC, which is also taking over the auto loan business of Chrysler, converted to a bank holding company in December to become eligible for bailout money the U.S. Treasury was pumping into banks. Bank holding companies, including GMAC, that regulators have viewed as being undercapitalized face a November 9 deadline for implementing plans to enhance their capital positions. Concerns that GMAC could fail the impending test had sent the cost of insuring debt at its residential mortgage arm, Residential Capital, spiraling in the past week as investors worried that the unit would need to be spun off.