BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher into the final hour on gains in my Medical longs, Technology longs, Financial longs, Biotech longs and Retail longs. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is very positive as the advance/decline line is substantially higher, every sector is rising and volume is slightly below average. Investor anxiety is very high. Today’s overall market action is bullish. The VIX is falling -1.03% and is high at 23.18. The ISE Sentiment Index is about average at 146.0 and the total put/call is slightly above average at .86. Finally, the NYSE Arms has been running below average most of the day, hitting .31 at its intraday trough, and is currently .67. The Euro Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index is falling -.81% to 68.14 basis points. This index is down from its record March 10th high of 208.75. The North American Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index is falling -1.82% to 96.32 basis points. This index is also well below its Dec. 5th record high of 285.99. The TED spread is unch. at 22 basis points. The TED spread is now down 442 basis points since its all-time high of 463 basis points on October 10th. The 2-year swap spread is falling -8.71% to 30.0 basis points. The Libor-OIS spread is unch. at 13 basis points. The 10-year TIPS spread, a good gauge of inflation expectations, is unch. at 2.16%, which is down -49 basis points since July 7th. The 3-month T-Bill is yielding .05%, which is unch. today.Small-cap and cyclical shares are outperforming today.Education, Commodity, Airline, Construction, Semi, HMO and REIT stocks are especially strong, rising 2%+.The bears are trying mightily to prevent an S&P 500 close above technical resistance at 1,100.However, I expect it to close above this level, which should lead to further buying later this week.Nikkei futures indicate an +90 open in Japan and DAX futures indicate a -19 open in Germany tomorrow. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close from current levels on short-covering, earnings optimism, less economic fear, technical buying and falling long-term rates.
- Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid will unveil legislation to overhaul the U.S. health-care system as early as this week. The floor debate that follows is likely to divide his Democratic Party. Reid wants to include a government-run insurance program that would let states opt out, which may cost him Senate votes. His version probably won’t require employers to cover workers and will be funded through a tax on high-end insurance plans, which would put him at odds with House Democrats. Reid needs 60 votes to pass the legislation, and he risks losing Senator Joseph Lieberman, a Connecticut independent who caucuses with the Democrats and opposes the government insurance plan. He also hasn’t won over the two Republicans most likely to back the bill, Maine Senators Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins. “He’s going to have to walk a tightrope in order to end up with a package that can get him 60 votes,” said former Senator John Breaux, a Democrat who now heads a lobbying firm that represents the Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America, the drug industry’s Washington trade group.
- Inventories at U.S. businesses fell in September to the lowest level in almost four years, signaling orders will rise in coming months as spending picks up. The 0.4 percent decrease in stockpiles was smaller than anticipated and brought the value of goods on hand down to $1.3 trillion, the fewest since November 2005, figures from the Commerce Department showed today in Washington. Companies depleted inventories at a record rate in the first half of the year, laying the groundwork for economic growth in the second half as consumers and businesses started spending again. Lean stockpiles at manufacturers such as carmakers and growing exports will spur a factory rebound that will propel the economic expansion into next year.
- Yields on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac mortgage securities tumbled to the lowest in almost six months, signaling that interest rates on new home loans will decline.
- Crude oil rose the most in a month as the dollar weakened and the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index increased to a 13-month high, bolstering confidence that the global economy and energy demand are recovering. Oil climbed as much as 3.8 percent as the U.S. currency’s drop encouraged the purchase of alternative investments.
- General Electric Capital Corp.(GE) plans to sell five-year Islamic bonds in dollars in its first Shariah compliant debt offer, according to two bankers involved in the transaction. The unit of General Electric Co., the world’s biggest provider of energy equipment and services, hired Citigroup Inc., Goldman Sachs Group Inc., National Bank of Abu Dhabi PJSC, and the Bahrain-based Liquidity Management Centre BSC to manage the sale, according to bankers who declined to be identified because the transaction isn’t complete yet. The Islamic bonds, or sukuk, will be sold through GE Capital Sukuk Ltd. and the issue will be of a benchmark size, which usually means $500 million or more, the bankers said.
- The U.S. would spend as much as $20 billion over 10 years to develop energy technology and double domestic nuclear-power output, under a measure announced by Senator Lamar Alexander, a Tennessee Republican. The legislation, co-sponsored by Senator Jim Webb, a Virginia Democrat, would provide $100 billion in loan guarantees for new nuclear plants, costing the government as much as $10 billion. It would fund research into solar energy, advanced biofuels, carbon capture, nuclear-fuel recycling and improved batteries for electric vehicles. “If we were going to war, we wouldn’t mothball our nuclear Navy and start subsidizing sailboats,” Alexander, a critic of wind energy, said today. “If climate change as well as low-cost reliable energy are national imperatives, we shouldn’t stop building nuclear plants and start subsidizing windmills.”
- Developers Diversified Realty Corp.(DDR) sold $400 million of debt backed by shopping centers in the first sale of commercial-mortgage bonds through a U.S. program to jumpstart lending. The $323.5 million top-rated portion priced to yield 140 basis points more than benchmark swap rates, according to people familiar with the transaction who declined to be identified because terms are private. Investor demand allowed the company to reduce the so-called spread from as much as 175 basis points, or 1.75 percentage points, the people said. The offering from Beachwood, Ohio-based Developers Diversified, managed by Goldman Sachs Group Inc., is the first to use the Federal Reserve’s Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility since it was opened to the debt in June. While representing a “positive for the market,” the transaction won’t necessarily lead to a flood of issuance, said James Grady, managing director at Deutsche Asset Management in New York.
- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said economic “headwinds” of reduced bank lending and a weak labor market will probably restrain the pace of the U.S. economic recovery, warranting continued low borrowing costs. “Significant economic challenges remain,” Bernanke said in a speech today to the Economic Club of New York. “The flow of credit remains constrained, economic activity weak and unemployment much too high. Future setbacks are possible.” He added that the Fed is “attentive” to changes in the dollar’s value and “will help ensure that the dollar is strong.” The central bank chief gave no indication he favors raising interest rates anytime soon.
- President Barack Obama made no effort to conceal his irritation when his press corps used the first question of his maiden Far East trip to ask what was taking him so long on Afghanistan. Jennifer Loven of The Associated Press had asked: “Can you explain to people watching and criticizing your deliberations what piece of information you're still lacking to make that call.” “With respect to Afghanistan, Jennifer,” the president scolded, “I don't think this is a matter of some datum of information that I'm waiting on. … Critics of the process … tend not to be folks who … are directly involved in what's happening in Afghanistan. Those who are, recognize the gravity of the situation and recognize the importance of us getting this right.” The cool president’s heated response reflected second-guessing from the press and Pentagon about a process that has spanned eight formal meetings with his war cabinet, totaling about 20 hours.
- Nigeria is pumping oil at a three-year high of 2.4 million barrels a day because of improved security in the Niger Delta, citing Mohammed Barkindo, head of the state oil company. Nigerian output, which dropped as low as 1.2 million barrels a day in July, stood at 2.4 million barrels a day on Nov. 12.
Nikkei Telecom: - Japan’s government may declare that the economy is in deflation.The statement may be included in a Nov. 20 monthly economic report at the earliest.