- The Environmental Protection Agency issued a final rule Monday aimed at reducing pollution from construction sites, saying that it will significantly improve the quality of water nationwide. The rule will be phased in over four years, starting in February, and when it is fully in effect, the EPA estimates there will be four billion fewer pounds of sediment discharged from construction sites each year. Nearly 82,000 home builders, commercial and industrial building contractors, and civil-engineering companies are expected to be covered by the rule, which the EPA estimates will impose about $953 million of annual costs. Such costs could raise home prices and cause a small number of builders to go out of business, resulting in some job losses, the EPA said in a draft version of the final rule.
- Since becoming a ward of the state, giant insurer American International Group Inc.(AIG) has had a powerful ally: the U.S. government. In the latest example, some federal officials are pressing the U.S. pay czar to ease up on compensation restrictions at AIG for 2010, arguing that the firm, and ultimately the taxpayer, would suffer if the curbs are too severe, according to people familiar with the matter. The relationship between AIG and the government is proving to be a political headache for the Obama administration. Earlier this year, the Treasury and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York failed to stop controversial bonuses at the firm. Last fall, in an effort to staunch a cash bleed at AIG, they agreed to fully compensate big banks that bought AIG's insurance on risky assets. The bailout of AIG, owned 80% by taxpayers, is one of the most controversial of the government's unpopular bailouts. Yet with so much taxpayer money at stake, the government is asserting its ownership. "AIG is the best example of why the government should never get itself in the position of even having to make these tradeoffs," said Anil Kashyap, an economics professor at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business. "It's why you don't want the government involved in the private sector in the first place."
- Hedge funds and other investors now stand to make billions of dollars from their holdings in bankrupt US mall owner General Growth Properties, underscoring the extent of the recent rebound in financial markets, people familiar with the matter say. Among the biggest potential winners is William Ackman’s Pershing Square Capital Management, which is sitting on a paper profit of more than $800m on investments in the debt and equity of GGP, according to people familiar with Mr Ackman’s fund. Other investors that stand to make big profits on holdings in the high-profile retail property owner include Centerbridge Partners, Elliott Associates, Goldman Sachs, John Paulson’s Paulson & Co and York Capital, the people said. “General Growth is a fantastic example of the speed with which real-estate finance is coming back,” said Bob Steers, co-chairman of real estate investment firm Cohen & Steers, which has not invested in General Growth.
- The public will not bail out the financial services sector for a second time if another global crisis blows up four or five years from now, the managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned business leaders yesterday. Addressing a conference held in London by the CBI, the business leaders’ organization, Dominique Strauss-Kahn said that another huge call on public finances by the financial services sector would not be tolerated by the man in the street and may even threaten democracy. “Most advanced economies will not accept any more [bailouts] . . . the political reaction will be very strong, putting some democracies at risk,” he told delegates.
Earnings of Note Company/EPS Estimate - (BKS)/1.52
- (DLTR)/.66
- (CBRL)/.62
- (WMG)/.04
- (HNZ)/.70
- (MDT)/.74
- (AEO)/.21
- (EV)/.33
- (TIVO)/-.05
- (BCSI)/.26
- (JCG)/.59
- (CRI)/.67
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
- 3Q GDP is estimated at +2.8% versus a prior estimate of a +3.5% gain.
- 3Q Personal Consumption is estimated to rise +3.2% versus a prior estimate of a +3.4% gain.
- 3Q GDP Price Index is estimated to rise +.8% versus a prior estimate of a +.8% increase.
- 3Q Core PCE is estimated to rise +1.4% versus a prior estimate of a +1.4% gain.
10:00 am EST
- Consumer Confidence for November is estimated to fall to 47.5 versus a reading of 47.7 in October.
- The House Price Index for September is estimated to rise +.1% versus a -.3% decline in August.
2:00 pm EST
- FOMC Nov. 4 Meeting Minutes.
Upcoming Splits - None of Note
Other Potential Market Movers -The weekly retail sales reports, ABC consumer confidence reading, API energy inventory report, Treasury’s 5-Year Note Auction, Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, S&P/CaseShiller Home Prices Index and the (JEC) analyst meeting could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by financial and automaker shares in the region. I expect US equities to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher into the final hour on gains in my Technology longs, Medical longs, Biotech longs, Retail longs and Financial longs. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is very positive as the advance/decline line is substantially higher, almost every sector is rising and volume is slightly below average. Investor anxiety is high. Today’s overall market action is bullish. The VIX is falling -5.59% and is high at 20.95. The ISE Sentiment Index is slightly below average at 138.0 and the total put/call is below average at .66. Finally, the NYSE Arms has been running low most of the day, hitting .19 at its intraday trough, and is currently .70. The Euro Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index is falling -1.63% to 71.15 basis points. This index is down from its record March 10th high of 208.75. The North American Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index is falling -2.49% to 100.67 basis points. This index is also well below its Dec. 5th record high of 285.99. The TED spread is falling -2 basis points to 24 basis points. The TED spread is now down 440 basis points since its all-time high of 463 basis points on October 10th. The 2-year swap spread is falling -.39% to 31.81 basis points. The Libor-OIS spread is up +1 basis point to 14 basis points. The 10-year TIPS spread, a good gauge of inflation expectations, is up +2 basis points to 2.21%, which is down -44 basis points since July 7th. The 3-month T-Bill is yielding .02%, which is up +2 basis points today.Small-caps are outperforming today.As well, many market leading stocks are substantially outperforming the broad market.I am seeing some key stocks break higher out of their recent trading ranges, hitting 52-week highs.HMO, Airline, Bank, Gold, Oil Service and Telecom stocks are especially strong, rising 1.75%+.(XLF) has been a market performer most of the day, however the strength in shares of (STI) is noteworthy considering investor concerns there. On the negative side, buyers evaporated again as the S&P 500 moved back above strong technical resistance around 1,100.I am seeing some hedge fund commodity favorites reverse to session lows.As well, volume has been below average throughout the day.I suspect (HPQ) will report a slight beat after the close today, which could help the bulls gain more traction tomorrow.HPQ’s short interest ratio is at 2.26, at the high-end of its 3-year range.Moreover, its put/call open interest ratio is .78, which is at the higher end of its recent range.Nikkei futures indicate an +78 open in Japan and DAX futures indicate a -13 open in Germany tomorrow. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close from current levels on short-covering, diminishing healthcare reform worries, stable long-term rates, technical buying, investment manager performance anxiety and seasonal strength.
- Sales of existing U.S. homes increased more than forecast in October to the highest level since February 2007, spurred in part by a tax credit that lured first-time buyers. Purchases rose 10.1 percent to a 6.1 million annual rate from a 5.54 million pace in September, the National Association of Realtors said today in Washington. The median sales price decreased 7.1 percent from October 2008, the smallest decline in more than a year. “It’s an impressive increase and shows a lot of pent-up demand for housing,” said Dean Maki, chief U.S. economist at Barclays Capital Inc. in New York. “Buyers have enough confidence to take the plunge. The housing market recovery will be a durable one.” Purchases of existing homes rose 23.5 percent in October compared with a year earlier. The number of previously-owned unsold homes on the market fell 3.7 percent to 3.57 million. At the current sales pace, it would take 7 months to sell those houses compared with 8 months at the end of the prior month. The months’ supply is the lowest since February 2007. The report showed sales of existing single-family homes rose 9.7 percent, the biggest gain since 1983, to an annual rate of 5.33 million. Sales of condos and co-ops increased 13.2 percent to a 770,000 rate. Purchases rose 11.6 percent in the Northeast, 14.4 percent in the Midwest, 12.7 percent in the South and 1.6 percent in the West.
- Worldwide personal-computer shipments will increase more than expected this year on accelerating demand for laptops, research firm Gartner Inc. said today. Shipments will rise 2.8 percent to 298.9 million units in 2009, Gartner said today in a statement. In September, the company projected a 2 percent decline for the year. Personal- computer makers will ship 336.6 million units in 2010, an increase of 13 percent, Gartner said. The company predicts “a modest bump” in consumer demand this quarter as vendors promote Microsoft Corp.’s Windows 7 operating system. Laptop PC shipments got a “significant boost from mini-notebooks,” the company said. The third quarter was “much stronger than we expected, and that alone virtually guaranteed we would see positive growth this year,” Gartner said.
- Venture-capital funds are cutting fees as they scrounge for cash amid a bruising fund-raising environment. Battery Ventures, Draper Fisher Jurvetson and Opus Capital are among venture-capital firms that have dangled lower costs in front of investors in the past few months. Some are cutting fees outright, while others are building performance-based hurdles into fee structures. The moves mark the first retreat by the venture-capital industry since the dot-com bust, which forced many firms to cut fees in hopes of luring back investors.
- Top hedge fund managers including Paul Tudor Jones and David Einhorn have built big gold positions this year on concern about inflation. But what if the price of the precious metal already reflects this worrying outlook? "I'm not a gold fan," Bill Ackman, head of hedge fund firm Pershing Square Capital Management, said during a speech last month at the Value Investing Congress in New York. The metal is a "greater fool" type investment, he added. "You have to go to a lot of investment conferences like this to persuade other people to buy it," Ackman said. "I'd much rather own something with a stream of money coming in." One hedge fund investor said almost every manager they speak to has invested in gold in some way recently. This is one of two macro-economic trades that are popular in the industry, the other being shorting, or betting against, the U.S. dollar, the investor explained on condition of anonymity. During the first half of 2008, a common hedge fund trade was to short financial stocks and go long commodities-related shares. But the financial crisis and a ban on short-selling financial stocks triggered record redemptions from hedge funds later in the year. Many commodities-related stocks slumped as managers were forced to unwind positions to return cash to investors.
- The National Association for Business Economics has released its November 2009 Industry Survey, in which NABE panelists have increased their expectations for growth in 2010. "While the recovery has been jobless so far, that should soon change," said NABE President Lynn Reaser, chief economist at Point Loma Nazarene University. "Within the next few months, companies should be adding instead of cutting jobs."
- Deteriorating credit conditions in India’s banking system over the coming months have raised concerns about a hefty increase in problem loans and weakening bank profitability, ratings agency Moody’s warned on Monday. In spite of clear signs of recovery, Moody’s has maintained a negative outlook for the Indian banking system. In a report, the ratings agency flagged up worries about deteriorating asset quality and the volume of restructured loans. During the fiscal year ending March 2009, the level of gross non-performing loans for commercial banks rose by 22.5 per cent, almost double the 11.9 per cent of the previous year. “The rapid expansion of retail lending in recent years, combined with the slowdown of the Indian economy, has led to increased delinquency rates, especially for unsecured retail loans,” said Nondas Nicolaides, a Moody’s analyst and author of the report. The agency’s warning comes as expectations rise that the Reserve Bank of India will raise interest rates early next year. At its last policy-setting meeting the bank left rates unchanged but began to tighten up loose monetary policy introduced earlier to defend the economy from the global financial crisis. The RBI’s requirement that banks increase their cover ratio for non-performing loan provision to at least 70 per cent by next September would “severely affect” bank profitability in the short term, Moody’s predicted. The measure threatens to bring to an end a comfortable run in which the profitability of commercial banks, like the State Bank of India and the Bank of Baroda , has benefited from the high lending environment and net interest income rising sharply in 2009.