Tuesday, November 24, 2009

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Monday, November 23, 2009

Tuesday Watch

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:

- Hewlett-Packard Co.(HPQ) reported personal-computer sales that topped some analysts’ estimates after the company took market share from Dell Inc.(DELL) and benefited from surging demand in China. “The company is seeing momentum on the enterprise side as their peers, mainly Dell, lose steam,” said Bill Kreher, an analyst with Edward Jones & Co. in St. Louis. He rates the shares “buy.” “When you have both the consumer and business categories doing well, particularly in this economy, it bodes well for when things start to improve.” Chief Financial Officer Cathie Lesjak said average selling prices of PCs stabilized in the quarter. “We felt good about imaging and printing as we closed the quarter,” Hurd said in an interview. “We exited the year pretty low on inventory -- we saw higher demand for printers as we went through the end of the year.” Hewlett-Packard increased services revenue 7.8 percent to $8.93 billion, buoyed by the acquisition last year of Electronic Data Systems Corp. The profit margin was 16.2 percent, compared with 11.4 percent a year earlier. Hewlett-Packard signed new services contracts with customers including Coca-Cola Co., Alcatel-Lucent SA and Eli Lilly & Co., Hurd said. “A story within the story with services was the strength of the signings in the quarter,” Hurd said. Hewlett-Packard captured 20.2 percent of the worldwide PC market in the third quarter, up from 18.9 percent a year earlier, according to researcher IDC in Framingham, Massachusetts. Acer Inc. passed Dell to take second place with a 14 percent share. Round Rock, Texas-based Dell, the only one of the three biggest PC makers to see its shipments fall, had a 12.7 percent share of the global market, down from 14.2 percent a year ago, IDC said.

- Irving Picard, the liquidator for Bernard Madoff’s investment advisory business, asked a judge to approve $22.1 million in fees for him and his team with the law firm Baker & Hostetler LLP, for five months of work on the case. The fees, which include a 10 percent “public interest discount” from the firm’s normal rates, cover work performed on the liquidation from May 1 through Sept. 30, according to a filing on Nov. 20 in U.S. Bankruptcy Court in New York. Picard, hired by the Securities Investor Protection Corp. to recover assets and repay victims, in August won his first request for $14.7 million in fees for work from Dec. 15 to April 30. Some victims objected to that request, claiming Picard was burning through cash while approving victims’ claims too slowly.

- New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo’s campaign fund took tens of thousands of dollars from law firms representing clients his office investigated or accused of wrongdoing, state records show. Boies Schiller & Flexner LLP, a New York law firm led by David Boies, gave Cuomo $35,000 this year, records show. The firm represents former American International Group Inc. Chief Executive Officer Maurice “Hank” Greenberg in a civil fraud case the attorney general is pursuing. Lawyers defending Dell Inc., Deutsche Bank AG and a former state political party chief in Cuomo cases also contributed to him, records show.

- Eight people were charged in an investigation into men who left the Minneapolis area to train with a terrorist organization in Somalia, the Justice Department said. The charges, unsealed today in U.S. District Court in Minneapolis, include providing financial support to those who traveled to Somalia to fight on behalf of al-Shabaab, designated a foreign terrorist organization by the U.S., according to a Justice Department statement.

- Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva plunged into Middle East conflicts today, saying Iran has a “decisive role to play” in the region after a three-hour meeting with its president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. With Ahmadinejad seated beside him in the Foreign Affairs Ministry in Brasilia, Lula said Iran can help heal divisions among Palestinians, as he expressed support for a “viable and dignified Palestinian state” to be established alongside a “secure and sovereign Israel.” Ahmadinejad has called for the destruction of Israel and questioned the Holocaust.

- At first it was just an unverifiable assertion. Now it turns out to have been a case of bureaucratic ineptitude and possible fraud. Transparency and accountability aren’t working out the way President Barack Obama had hoped. The administration was already skating on thin ice when it announced on Oct. 30, with great fanfare, that 640,329 jobs had been created or saved as a result of the $787 billion American Recovery and Reinvestment Act. Watchdog.org, a collection of independent journalists covering state and local government, has put together a “Guide to the Stimulus, District by (Phantom) District.” Overall the group found that 440 phantom districts in 50 states, the District of Columbia and four U.S. territories received $6.4 billion and created or saved -- let’s consolidate to “craved” -- 30,000 jobs. That works out to $213,333 per job. Think how much easier, not to mention transparent, it would have been to hand out that kind of real money to real people who will spend it!


Wall Street Journal:

- The Environmental Protection Agency issued a final rule Monday aimed at reducing pollution from construction sites, saying that it will significantly improve the quality of water nationwide. The rule will be phased in over four years, starting in February, and when it is fully in effect, the EPA estimates there will be four billion fewer pounds of sediment discharged from construction sites each year. Nearly 82,000 home builders, commercial and industrial building contractors, and civil-engineering companies are expected to be covered by the rule, which the EPA estimates will impose about $953 million of annual costs. Such costs could raise home prices and cause a small number of builders to go out of business, resulting in some job losses, the EPA said in a draft version of the final rule.

- Abortion to Be New Flashpoint in Senate Bill. Abortion-rights groups, acknowledging they were caught off guard by a last-minute amendment toughening abortion restrictions in the House health-care bill, are mobilizing to ensure that doesn't happen in the Senate. Activists hope to flood Washington to rally and lobby on Dec. 2, during the week that Senate floor debate begins. The Center for Reproductive Rights has aired television ads criticizing the restrictions. On Tuesday, activists will announce the creation of the Coalition to Pass Health Care Reform and Stop Stupak, a network of more than 30 groups. Planned Parenthood -- which says it will oppose the final bill if it contains the restrictions -- has started a petition drive that has been promoted by Cosmopolitan magazine. "At least it will be a fully engaged debate on both sides," said Nancy Northup, president of the Center for Reproductive Rights. "It really wasn't, the first time around. It was a midnight deal."

- Since becoming a ward of the state, giant insurer American International Group Inc.(AIG) has had a powerful ally: the U.S. government. In the latest example, some federal officials are pressing the U.S. pay czar to ease up on compensation restrictions at AIG for 2010, arguing that the firm, and ultimately the taxpayer, would suffer if the curbs are too severe, according to people familiar with the matter. The relationship between AIG and the government is proving to be a political headache for the Obama administration. Earlier this year, the Treasury and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York failed to stop controversial bonuses at the firm. Last fall, in an effort to staunch a cash bleed at AIG, they agreed to fully compensate big banks that bought AIG's insurance on risky assets. The bailout of AIG, owned 80% by taxpayers, is one of the most controversial of the government's unpopular bailouts. Yet with so much taxpayer money at stake, the government is asserting its ownership. "AIG is the best example of why the government should never get itself in the position of even having to make these tradeoffs," said Anil Kashyap, an economics professor at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business. "It's why you don't want the government involved in the private sector in the first place."

- Global Warming With the Lid Off. The emails that reveal an effort to hide the truth about climate science.

- For anyone who wondered if last winter's federal seizure of the financial services industry would have adverse economic consequences, an answer is now available. The credit market has been tilted to favor a single borrower with a huge appetite for money, Washington. Private borrowers, particularly small businesses, have been sent to the end of the queue. The Federal Reserve, which supervises some 7,000 banks, has been telling bankers that they must cut risk. The most spectacular step in that effort was the Fed announcement last month that it will evaluate the salaries of bank officers on how carefully they manage risk.


CNBC.com:

- Cramer: What Monday’s Housing Number Really Means.

Business Week:
- Citi lifted its 2010 growth domestic product outlook for the U.S., Japan, Britain, Australia, New Zealand, Hong Kong, Korea, Argentina, Hungary, Poland, Czech Republic and Turkey. However, it said credit availability will likely be limited for at least another year or two as banks seek to raise extra capital.

Reuters:

- Microchip maker Analog Devices Inc (ADI) on Monday reported higher-than-expected quarterly sales buoyed by consumer demand and forecast higher profit margins and busier factories by the end of fiscal 2010. Consumer sales, which include chips for audio and video equipment for home entertainment systems, were especially strong, rising 7 percent over the previous year. Zinsner said he expects first quarter revenue to remain roughly flat sequentially from the fourth quarter, which he said was atypical for a seasonally down quarter.

- Lehman Brothers International (Europe), where more than $35 billion of hedge fund assets have been frozen since the bank's collapse last September, could return about $11 billion to fund managers by March if enough firms approve a new plan.

- Financier Carl Icahn has offered $156.5 million to acquire the partially built Fontainebleau Las Vegas resort, which has been stalled in bankruptcy court since June, according to the resort's chief operating officer.

- Network equipment maker Brocade Communications Systems Inc (BRCD) on Monday reported a higher-than-expected quarterly profit, despite concerns about competition amid a series of mergers and acquisitions among rivals. The results come as an improving credit environment is helping businesses step up capital investment after holding back for the past year. "Our planning assumption is that IT spending will continue to recover during the first half of 2010 and approach normalcy in the second half of 2010," Brocade said in a statement.


Financial Times:

- In stark contrast to the slow pace of reform in derivatives markets in the US and Europe, China’s regulators have in recent months shut down the main route by which foreign banks sold derivatives from offshore operations and have banished speculative deals – moves that have important implications not only for Chinese companies and foreign banks, but also for the evolution of China’s capital markets and the internationalization of the renminbi. As a result of the sweeping regulatory overhaul, trading volumes have plunged and foreign banks are scrambling to adapt to doing business in the new environment. “If you compare the business we are doing today with the business we were doing two years ago, it’s completely different,” says Mr Castel. “You have to forget about [the old] market. It’s gone.” Previously, dozens of western banks such as Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley were striking huge deals with mainland companies that wanted to manage their exposure to swings in commodity prices, interest rates and currencies. Chinese regulators suspect that in some instances companies used derivatives as a way to speculate, rather than hedge, while banks frequently sold overly complex products – the most profitable – without fully explaining the potential downside.

- Hedge funds and other investors now stand to make billions of dollars from their holdings in bankrupt US mall owner General Growth Properties, underscoring the extent of the recent rebound in financial markets, people familiar with the matter say. Among the biggest potential winners is William Ackman’s Pershing Square Capital Management, which is sitting on a paper profit of more than $800m on investments in the debt and equity of GGP, according to people familiar with Mr Ackman’s fund. Other investors that stand to make big profits on holdings in the high-profile retail property owner include Centerbridge Partners, Elliott Associates, Goldman Sachs, John Paulson’s Paulson & Co and York Capital, the people said. “General Growth is a fantastic example of the speed with which real-estate finance is coming back,” said Bob Steers, co-chairman of real estate investment firm Cohen & Steers, which has not invested in General Growth.

- Climate change skeptics have been emboldened to press their case in the countdown to the Copenhagen talks after seizing on a clutch of private e-mails sent to and from climate change experts which they allege show scientists plotting to manipulate data and hurling abuse at their skeptical peers. The exchanges, written by British and US scientists at the UK’s University of East Anglia, debate data and whether details should be released and allegedly include abusive language aimed at climate change skeptics. One e-mail from Professor Phil Jones at UEA to several climate scientists spoke of using a “trick” to hide “the decline” of temperatures. It is not clear from the context what he means exactly but skeptics claimed that it showed scientists were concealing temperature data that appeared to run contrary to the idea of global warming. In other e-mails, one scientist expressed anger at a journal that had questioned his work, and another threatened to “beat the crap out of” a prominent ­scientist who takes a ­skeptical view of global warming. Skeptics hailed the e-mails as the “smoking gun” they had been looking for, proving that climate change scientists were engaged in dubious practices and personal attacks on their opponents, as well as failing to give out certain data on request. Myron Ebell, director of global warming and international environmental policy at the Competitive Enterprise Institute, a US free-market think-tank, said the e-mail exchanges were a “scandal that has knocked down the global warming house of cards”. Bob Ward, policy director at the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment at the London School of Economics and Political Science, called for a thorough investigation into the matters raised by the e-mails.


TimesOnline:

- The public will not bail out the financial services sector for a second time if another global crisis blows up four or five years from now, the managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned business leaders yesterday. Addressing a conference held in London by the CBI, the business leaders’ organization, Dominique Strauss-Kahn said that another huge call on public finances by the financial services sector would not be tolerated by the man in the street and may even threaten democracy. “Most advanced economies will not accept any more [bailouts] . . . the political reaction will be very strong, putting some democracies at risk,” he told delegates.

- There is only one trade in town at the moment — sell the ailing dollar and buy gold — but investors could fare well by going against the grain.


Der Spiegel:

- When he entered office, US President Barack Obama promised to inject US foreign policy with a new tone of respect and diplomacy. His recent trip to Asia, however, showed that it's not working. A shift to Bush-style bluntness may be coming.


Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Citigroup:

- Reiterated Buy on (TECD), target $56.


Janney Capital Markets:

- Reiterated Buy on (GMCR), target $102.


Keybanc:

- Rated (TIF) Buy, target $50.


Night Trading
Asian Indices are -.75% to +.25% on average.

Asia Ex-Japan Inv Grade CDS Index 105.5 -4.5 basis points.
S&P 500 futures -.21%.
NASDAQ 100 futures -.29%.


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Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (BKS)/1.52

- (DLTR)/.66

- (CBRL)/.62

- (WMG)/.04

- (HNZ)/.70

- (MDT)/.74

- (AEO)/.21

- (EV)/.33

- (TIVO)/-.05

- (BCSI)/.26

- (JCG)/.59

- (CRI)/.67


Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

- 3Q GDP is estimated at +2.8% versus a prior estimate of a +3.5% gain.

- 3Q Personal Consumption is estimated to rise +3.2% versus a prior estimate of a +3.4% gain.

- 3Q GDP Price Index is estimated to rise +.8% versus a prior estimate of a +.8% increase.

- 3Q Core PCE is estimated to rise +1.4% versus a prior estimate of a +1.4% gain.


10:00 am EST

- Consumer Confidence for November is estimated to fall to 47.5 versus a reading of 47.7 in October.

- The House Price Index for September is estimated to rise +.1% versus a -.3% decline in August.


2:00 pm EST

- FOMC Nov. 4 Meeting Minutes.


Upcoming Splits
- None of Note


Other Potential Market Movers
-
The weekly retail sales reports, ABC consumer confidence reading, API energy inventory report, Treasury’s 5-Year Note Auction, Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, S&P/CaseShiller Home Prices Index and the (JEC) analyst meeting could also impact trading today.


BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by financial and automaker shares in the region. I expect US equities to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Finish Higher, Boosted By Airline, HMO, Bank, Telecom, Gold, Internet, Computer and Homebuilding Shares

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Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Short-Covering, Technical Buying, Seasonal Strength, Stable Long-Term Rates

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher into the final hour on gains in my Technology longs, Medical longs, Biotech longs, Retail longs and Financial longs. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is very positive as the advance/decline line is substantially higher, almost every sector is rising and volume is slightly below average. Investor anxiety is high. Today’s overall market action is bullish. The VIX is falling -5.59% and is high at 20.95. The ISE Sentiment Index is slightly below average at 138.0 and the total put/call is below average at .66. Finally, the NYSE Arms has been running low most of the day, hitting .19 at its intraday trough, and is currently .70. The Euro Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index is falling -1.63% to 71.15 basis points. This index is down from its record March 10th high of 208.75. The North American Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index is falling -2.49% to 100.67 basis points. This index is also well below its Dec. 5th record high of 285.99. The TED spread is falling -2 basis points to 24 basis points. The TED spread is now down 440 basis points since its all-time high of 463 basis points on October 10th. The 2-year swap spread is falling -.39% to 31.81 basis points. The Libor-OIS spread is up +1 basis point to 14 basis points. The 10-year TIPS spread, a good gauge of inflation expectations, is up +2 basis points to 2.21%, which is down -44 basis points since July 7th. The 3-month T-Bill is yielding .02%, which is up +2 basis points today. Small-caps are outperforming today. As well, many market leading stocks are substantially outperforming the broad market. I am seeing some key stocks break higher out of their recent trading ranges, hitting 52-week highs. HMO, Airline, Bank, Gold, Oil Service and Telecom stocks are especially strong, rising 1.75%+. (XLF) has been a market performer most of the day, however the strength in shares of (STI) is noteworthy considering investor concerns there. On the negative side, buyers evaporated again as the S&P 500 moved back above strong technical resistance around 1,100. I am seeing some hedge fund commodity favorites reverse to session lows. As well, volume has been below average throughout the day. I suspect (HPQ) will report a slight beat after the close today, which could help the bulls gain more traction tomorrow. HPQ’s short interest ratio is at 2.26, at the high-end of its 3-year range. Moreover, its put/call open interest ratio is .78, which is at the higher end of its recent range. Nikkei futures indicate an +78 open in Japan and DAX futures indicate a -13 open in Germany tomorrow. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close from current levels on short-covering, diminishing healthcare reform worries, stable long-term rates, technical buying, investment manager performance anxiety and seasonal strength.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

- Sales of existing U.S. homes increased more than forecast in October to the highest level since February 2007, spurred in part by a tax credit that lured first-time buyers. Purchases rose 10.1 percent to a 6.1 million annual rate from a 5.54 million pace in September, the National Association of Realtors said today in Washington. The median sales price decreased 7.1 percent from October 2008, the smallest decline in more than a year. “It’s an impressive increase and shows a lot of pent-up demand for housing,” said Dean Maki, chief U.S. economist at Barclays Capital Inc. in New York. “Buyers have enough confidence to take the plunge. The housing market recovery will be a durable one.” Purchases of existing homes rose 23.5 percent in October compared with a year earlier. The number of previously-owned unsold homes on the market fell 3.7 percent to 3.57 million. At the current sales pace, it would take 7 months to sell those houses compared with 8 months at the end of the prior month. The months’ supply is the lowest since February 2007. The report showed sales of existing single-family homes rose 9.7 percent, the biggest gain since 1983, to an annual rate of 5.33 million. Sales of condos and co-ops increased 13.2 percent to a 770,000 rate. Purchases rose 11.6 percent in the Northeast, 14.4 percent in the Midwest, 12.7 percent in the South and 1.6 percent in the West.

- Worldwide personal-computer shipments will increase more than expected this year on accelerating demand for laptops, research firm Gartner Inc. said today. Shipments will rise 2.8 percent to 298.9 million units in 2009, Gartner said today in a statement. In September, the company projected a 2 percent decline for the year. Personal- computer makers will ship 336.6 million units in 2010, an increase of 13 percent, Gartner said. The company predicts “a modest bump” in consumer demand this quarter as vendors promote Microsoft Corp.’s Windows 7 operating system. Laptop PC shipments got a “significant boost from mini-notebooks,” the company said. The third quarter was “much stronger than we expected, and that alone virtually guaranteed we would see positive growth this year,” Gartner said.

- The U.S. military’s review of the Fort Hood shootings must include an assessment of the accused shooter’s career path and whether he should have been promoted, according to Defense Secretary Robert Gates. Gates said the military also should investigate whether Army policies and procedures would inhibit the discharge of a soldier who was found “not to be fully qualified or unsuitable for continued” service and how these findings might apply to Major Nidal Malik Hasan.

- The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission will focus on financial instruments such as derivatives as it broadens a crackdown on insider trading by hedge funds, enforcement director Robert Khuzami said. “The days of insider-trading scrutiny being focused almost solely on the equity markets are now gone,” Khuzami said today at a New York legal conference on hedge-fund regulation. After bringing its first insider trading case tied to credit default swaps in May, the SEC will “roll back the curtain on those markets and look at patterns across all markets,” he said.

- Sulfur emissions from imported Chinese drywall is linked to corroding metal and wires in U.S. homes, and may be causing eye irritation and other health complaints by homeowners, federal investigators said.

- King Pharmaceuticals Inc.(KG), LifePoint Hospitals Inc.(LPNT) and Endo Pharmaceuticals Holdings Inc.(ENDP) may be buyout targets as private-equity firms seek companies battered by the economy and poised to gain from the U.S. health overhaul. The three companies, with market caps of about $1 billion to $3 billion each, are steady cash producers with little debt and low share prices compared with their earnings potential, a profile sought by acquirers, according to Pali Capital Inc. in New York and Zurich-based Credit Suisse Group AG.


Wall Street Journal:

- Venture-capital funds are cutting fees as they scrounge for cash amid a bruising fund-raising environment. Battery Ventures, Draper Fisher Jurvetson and Opus Capital are among venture-capital firms that have dangled lower costs in front of investors in the past few months. Some are cutting fees outright, while others are building performance-based hurdles into fee structures. The moves mark the first retreat by the venture-capital industry since the dot-com bust, which forced many firms to cut fees in hopes of luring back investors.

- Games are serious business in China. The country’s online game market will reach 41 billion yuan by 2010 ($6 billion), accounting for half the global market, according to newly released data from Cnzz.com Inc., a Beijing-based third-party data analysis firm (related report in Chinese here). The Cnzz.com report states that almost two-thirds of China’s 338 million Web users are now online game players. The online game industry, which currently accounts for more than half of the total Internet economy, will see strong annual growth at a rate of 20% future years, the report says.


NY Times:

- Top parliamentarian Jean-Paul Gauzes has written to members of an influential European Union committee recommending strict rules for hedge funds that clamp down on pay and borrowing, according to Reuters, which cited his report. The E.U. is scrutinizing a raft of regulations for the funds and other niche financial groups that includes imposing tough borrowing limits on the secretive industry, which has provoked increasing suspicion among politicians.


MarketWatch.com

- Top hedge fund managers including Paul Tudor Jones and David Einhorn have built big gold positions this year on concern about inflation. But what if the price of the precious metal already reflects this worrying outlook? "I'm not a gold fan," Bill Ackman, head of hedge fund firm Pershing Square Capital Management, said during a speech last month at the Value Investing Congress in New York. The metal is a "greater fool" type investment, he added. "You have to go to a lot of investment conferences like this to persuade other people to buy it," Ackman said. "I'd much rather own something with a stream of money coming in." One hedge fund investor said almost every manager they speak to has invested in gold in some way recently. This is one of two macro-economic trades that are popular in the industry, the other being shorting, or betting against, the U.S. dollar, the investor explained on condition of anonymity. During the first half of 2008, a common hedge fund trade was to short financial stocks and go long commodities-related shares. But the financial crisis and a ban on short-selling financial stocks triggered record redemptions from hedge funds later in the year. Many commodities-related stocks slumped as managers were forced to unwind positions to return cash to investors.

NYPost:
- As support for Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner wanes on Capitol Hill amid frustration with the Obama administration's handling of the economy, JPMorgan Chase(JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon is emerging as a potential replacement. Sources tell The Post that a number of policy makers have begun mentioning Dimon as a successor to Geithner, whose standing in Washington has suffered because of the country's high unemployment rate, the weakness of the dollar, the slow pace of the recovery and the government's mounting deficit.

Public Capital:

- Goldman Sachs(GS) is in the hot seat at the state’s $22 billion Permanent School Fund. One of the fund’s five hedge fund managers, Goldman Sachs has lost much of its investment team and has been one of the lower performers for the school fund. So last week, the State Board of Education, which oversees the school fund, put Goldman Sachs on a 90-day watch list. It was a due diligence warning that the contract will be ended, said David Bradley, chairman of the Permanent School Fund committee. Goldman Sachs manages $357.7 million of the fund’s $2.2 billion hedge fund allocation. It’s annualized first-year return was 1.1 percent compared to the 3.4 percent composite returns for the all five of the managers. While the weak returns raised a red flag, it was the wholesale turnover of the staffers that created the greatest concern, Bradley said.


24/7 Wall St.:

- The 24/7 Wall St. Real-Time 500 Largest Companies In America.

BigGovernment.com:

- The ACORN office in National City (San Diego County) engaged in a massive document dump on the evening of October 9th, containing thousands upon thousands of sensitive documents, just days prior to the Attorney General’s visit.


paidContent.org:

- Well, it isn’t exactly the acquisition I was hoping for, but close, and probably for the better: BNO News, of the popular @BreakingNews Twitter feed and the BNO iPhone app, is launching its business syndication venture, called BNO News Wire, and MSNBC.com has signed on as the first client. Along with that, MSNBC.com will take over the management of the @BreakingNews Twitter feed starting next month, while BNO and its 20-year old Dutch founder Michael van Poppel will now focus on developing its subscription-based wire service to sell to news companies. BNO’s new wire-service headlines will now be fed into the Twitter feed, along with the usual third-party headlines that it aggregates. The wire service will formally launch in January and will build on some of the original stories that BNO has started doing of late, such as this and this. The BNO premium subscription-based iPhone app is not part of the MSNBC.com deal; some wire-service stories will go on the iPhone app but the ull slate will only be for the paid news media clients.


Rassmussen:

- Just 38% of voters now favor the health care plan proposed by President Obama and congressional Democrats. That’s the lowest level of support measured for the plan in nearly two dozen tracking polls conducted since June. The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 56% now oppose the plan. Half the survey was conducted before the Senate voted late Saturday to begin debate on its version of the legislation. Support for the plan was slightly lower in the half of the survey conducted after the Senate vote. Prior to this, support for the plan had never fallen below 41%. Last week, support for the plan was at 47%. Two weeks ago, the effort was supported by 45% of voters. Intensity remains stronger among those who oppose the push to change the nation’s health care system: 21% Strongly Favor the plan while 43% are Strongly Opposed.

- The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows that 28% of the nation's voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as President. Forty-one percent (41%) Strongly Disapprove giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -13 (see trends).


Politico:

- Republicans aren’t the only ones staring at the unnerving prospect of a 2010 primary season filled with smash-mouth intraparty contests that threaten to distract the party and leave Senate nominees bloodied and cash-depleted. In a handful of next year’s most competitive Senate races — and for a few of the Democratic Party’s most precariously perched incumbents — discordant Democratic primaries are already taking shape, complicating a midterm election landscape in which the party will be playing defense for the first time in four years. In some cases, the Democrat-on-Democrat fights are simply about ambition. In others, ideology is at the heart of the conflict. The common denominator is that the intraparty battles stand to divert critical resources and divide the party at an especially inopportune time.


Daily Finance:

- Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh threw his support behind the U.S. dollar as the world's reserve currency and took an upbeat view of the U.S. economy in an interview on CNN's Sunday talk show GPS.


Modern Distribution Management:

- The National Association for Business Economics has released its November 2009 Industry Survey, in which NABE panelists have increased their expectations for growth in 2010. "While the recovery has been jobless so far, that should soon change," said NABE President Lynn Reaser, chief economist at Point Loma Nazarene University. "Within the next few months, companies should be adding instead of cutting jobs."

Panelists expect a "sizable housing rebound, low inflation, and further rise in stock prices." Panelists are also "mostly optimistic" that the Federal Reserve's policies will not lead to higher inflation. NABE expects 3% pace of real GDP growth in the fourth quarter 2009, and 3.2% gain over four quarters of 2010. NABE panelists believe the end of net employment losses is near, with modest declines during the fourth quarter followed by a "bottom" in the first quarter of 2010 and gains after that. Most panelists don't expect a complete recovery of previously lost jobs until 2012. Housing recovery will gather momentum. Panel expects housing starts and residential investment to rise sharply in 2010, with housing starts increasing 36% and residential investment up 9%. Low house prices and interest rates will help drive this improvement. Inventory liquidation of 2008-2009 will hit bottom by the end of the year with restocking started again in 2010. Business spending on structures will continue to decline, but at a slower pace than in 2009. The dollar will weaken further in 2010 but will stabilize against the euro. Inflation will remain low, due to "substantial labor market slack and further productivity gains."


AP:

- Bomb attacks and a firefight killed four U.S. troops in 24 hours in Afghanistan, the military said Monday, adding to the growing toll as NATO and the U.S. consider whether to send more forces to the war.


Reuters:

- Chicago Federal Reserve President Charles Evans expects U.S. unemployment to peak at around 10.5 percent next spring and hopefully easing to about 9.5 percent by end-2010, according to comments published on Monday.

- China's banking regulator has urged big state lenders including Bank of China (601988.SS) (3988.HK) to raise capital adequacy ratios to 13 percent next year after rapid loan expansions in 2009, according to a source with direct knowledge of the matter. Bank of China, China Construction Bank (601939.SS) (0939.HK) and Bank of Communications (601328.SS) (3328.HK) have notified the regulator they are working on fund raising proposals to meet the guideline, said the source, who declined to be identified as he was not authorized to speak to the media.

- Peet's Coffee & Tea Inc (PEET) raised its cash-and-stock offer to buy Diedrich Coffee Inc (DDRX), but with its shares trading down, the proposed deal offered little upside to a competing all-cash bid from Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc (GMCR). Gourmet coffee chain Peet's revised its offer to $32 a share, or $261 million, based on Friday's closing, after Diedrich informed the company that it considered a $30-per-share Green Mountain bid superior to a previous deal it signed with Peet's.

Financial Times:

- Deteriorating credit conditions in India’s banking system over the coming months have raised concerns about a hefty increase in problem loans and weakening bank profitability, ratings agency Moody’s warned on Monday. In spite of clear signs of recovery, Moody’s has maintained a negative outlook for the Indian banking system. In a report, the ratings agency flagged up worries about deteriorating asset quality and the volume of restructured loans. During the fiscal year ending March 2009, the level of gross non-performing loans for commercial banks rose by 22.5 per cent, almost double the 11.9 per cent of the previous year. “The rapid expansion of retail lending in recent years, combined with the slowdown of the Indian economy, has led to increased delinquency rates, especially for unsecured retail loans,” said Nondas Nicolaides, a Moody’s analyst and author of the report. The agency’s warning comes as expectations rise that the Reserve Bank of India will raise interest rates early next year. At its last policy-setting meeting the bank left rates unchanged but began to tighten up loose monetary policy introduced earlier to defend the economy from the global financial crisis. The RBI’s requirement that banks increase their cover ratio for non-performing loan provision to at least 70 per cent by next September would “severely affect” bank profitability in the short term, Moody’s predicted. The measure threatens to bring to an end a comfortable run in which the profitability of commercial banks, like the State Bank of India and the Bank of Baroda , has benefited from the high lending environment and net interest income rising sharply in 2009.

- When the word came from Brussels on Thursday evening that Herman Van Rompuy, the Belgian prime minister, would be the first president of the European Council, and Lady Ashton, the UK member of the European Commission responsible for trade, would be the EU “high representative”, there was an overwhelming sense of disappointed expectations. Neither has any significant international profile, nor much experience of global negotiations beyond Lady Ashton’s brief year as trade commissioner. “It is rather less than we were hoping for,” said another US administration member, speaking with massive understatement, but diplomatically off the record. “We want to hear a strong voice from Europe.”

- HP sells more to consumers, who are responding to the introduction of Microsoft’s new operating system, Windows 7, and are snapping up cheap netbooks. By comparison, only a fifth of Dell’s sales, and barely any profits, come from individual consumers. Yet prospects for both makers are brightening, with market researcher IDC predicting global growth in PC shipments of 11 per cent annually through to 2013, and 5 per cent in value terms. Companies’ computers are ageing, with around 70 per cent of Dell’s customer base still using Windows XP (a version released back in 2001), according to Deutsche Bank. As they start to spend on upgrades next year, Dell’s shares should stand out from the pack.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
Mid-Cap Growth (+.83%)

Sector Underperformers:
Coal (-1.40%), I-Banks (-.59%) and Steel (-.18%)

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
ZUMZ, PEET, CEPH, NUVA, CIEN and RMBS


Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
1) VMED 2) BAX 3) CEPH 4) BHP 5) MJN