Stocks Finish Lower, Weighed Down by Commodity, Insurance, REIT and Bank Shares

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Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Mid-East Financial Worries, Profit-Taking, More Shorting

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is lower into the final hour on losses in my Technology longs, Financial longs and Retail longs. I added (IWM)/(QQQQ) hedges and added to my (EEM) short today, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. The tone of the market is very negative as the advance/decline line is substantially lower, almost every sector is falling and volume is very light. Investor anxiety is very high. Today’s overall market action is bearish. The VIX is rising +19.68% and is high at 24.51. The ISE Sentiment Index is low at 90.0 and the total put/call is high at 1.02. Finally, the NYSE Arms has been running extraordinarily high most of the day, hitting 10.0 at its intraday peak, and is currently 4.0. The Euro Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index is falling -.12% to 76.37 basis points. This index is down from its record March 10th high of 208.75. The North American Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index is rising +2.84% to 105.25 basis points. This index is also well below its Dec. 5^th record high of 285.99. The TED spread is rising +2 basis points to 24 basis points. The TED spread is now down 442 basis points since its all-time high of 463 basis points on October 10th. The 2-year swap spread is rising +17.89% to 34.19 basis points. The Libor-OIS spread is unch. at 12 basis points. The 10-year TIPS spread, a good gauge of inflation expectations, is down -4 basis points to 2.11%, which is down -54 basis points since July 7th. The 3-month T-Bill is yielding .02%, which is down -2 basis points today. Many market leading stocks are substantially outperforming the broad market. Healthcare-related, Airline, Education, Retail and Telecom shares are holding up pretty well also. I am hearing Black Friday sales are likely to exceed expectations. The rebound in European shares and muted reaction in the North Amer. Inv. Grade CDS Index are also big positives. The extraordinarily high NYSE Arms reading on light volume is a positive. On the negative side, the market’s severe negative reaction to news that was out early Wed. morning is somewhat puzzling. I suspect the yen’s recent accelerating strength and rising overcapacity worries out of China are also big culprits. Asian shares have been trading poorly for a few days now. I will closely monitor the market’s internal reaction to next week’s likely positive news before further shifting exposure. Nikkei futures indicate an +114 open in Japan and DAX futures indicate a -3 open in Germany on Monday. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close from current levels on short-covering, bargain hunting, lower energy prices, falling long-term rates, less financial sector fear, retail sector optimism and seasonal strength.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

- Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc was the biggest underwriter of loans to Dubai World, the state company seeking to reschedule debt, while HSBC Holdings Plc has the most at risk in the United Arab Emirates, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.

- European stocks advanced, rebounding from biggest drop in seven months for the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index, as concern over Dubai’s attempt to delay its debt repayments abated. Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc, which was Dubai World’s biggest loan arranger since January 2007 according to JPMorgan Chase & Co., climbed 5.2 percent, having plunged to a seven- month low yesterday. Michelin & Cie., the world’s second-largest tiremaker, and Volkswagen AG, Europe’s biggest carmaker, led auto stocks higher after the Stoxx 600 Automobiles and Parts Index sank 4.3 percent yesterday. The Stoxx 600 gained 1.3 percent to 242.85 at 4:40 p.m. in London, having earlier dropped as much as 1.8 percent. “There’s a strong signal that we’re not going to let a country like that fall,” said Kilian de Kertanguy, a fund manager at Cholet-Dupont Gestion SA in Paris, which oversees about $2.3 billion.

- European confidence in the economic outlook improved in November to the highest since the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., suggesting the recovery in the 16-nation euro region is gathering strength. An index of executive and consumer sentiment rose for an eighth straight month to 88.8 from 86.1 in October, the European Commission in Brussels said today. That was the highest since September 2008, when Lehman filed the biggest bankruptcy in U.S. history, compounding the financial crisis.

Wall Street Journal:

- Best Buy Co. (BBY) Chief Executive Brian Dunn said his early reports from the electronics retailer's stores indicate shopper traffic is up over last year and that shoppers are in a buying mood. "In this connected world we live in, I have been getting updates all morning, and our crowds--first in the East and then within the Central part as those stores opened up-- were materially bigger than last year, and the West Coast reports, too, are the same," Dunn said in an interview with Dow Jones Newswires. "The (traffic) numbers are definitely up over last year," he said. "I'm about to close out my third quarter, so I have to be careful what I say, but we are definitely seeing a lot of shoppers." Dunn wouldn't comment more specifically on sales trends so far, but he reiterated his belief that Best Buy has planned inventory and promotions well for the holiday. Last year, retailers had too much inventory and had to make deep discounts as they approached Christmas, he said. But this year, Best Buy has more opportunity to "strategically build our inventory in places that matter to the consumer," he said. "We're not going to disappoint customers and we're not going to disappoint our shareholders."

- Hersey Co. received indications it could raise at least $10 billion from two banks, JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America’s Merrill Lynch unit, towards a possible $17 billion bid for Cadbury Plc.

- Discounters were doing well early Black Friday morning, with door-busters bringing in big crowds, while higher-end and some apparel retailers were seeing somewhat muted traffic despite big discounts. Mass merchants like Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Target Corp., as well as lower-end department stores like J.C. Penney Co. and electronics retailer Best Buy Inc., saw strong demand for big sales items, with electronics an early winner. But there was some robust demand for tougher-sell items like cookware and jewelry.

CNBC:

- Dubai's debt woes may serve as a catalyst for a correction in stock markets but it does not signal a new crisis, investment manager Mohammed El-Erian told CNBC Friday.

MarketWatch.com

- Contrarians give thanks. Average adviser remains surprisingly pessimistic.

Washington Post:

- In U.S. history, there may have been no better time to own a junk car, a rattling old fridge and a leaking dishwasher. On the heels of its ballyhooed "Cash for Clunkers" program for cars, the federal government is expected to finalize details in the coming weeks of another tax-supported shopping extravaganza, known as "Cash for Appliances." Supported by $300 million from the economic stimulus, the program will offer rebates to consumers who buy energy-efficient refrigerators, dishwashers, air conditioners and other appliances to replace their older models. And like the $3 billion cars program that gave consumers money for swapping their clunkers for more fuel-efficient rides, the appliance initiative seems destined to inspire shoppers, drive up sales for a while and profoundly divide economists over how much lasting good this chunk of government spending will do for the economy.

The Business Insider:

- The California housing market was supposed to have started crashing again by now, according to those who have ridiculed the uptick of the past few months as a head fake.As of October, however, California appears to be hanging in there.

- Black Friday Sales Frenzy Explodes As Americans Kiss Recession Goodbye. Judging from the fire hose of tweets this morning, Walmart is doing some brisk Black Friday business.

- JPMorgan: Stop Freaking Out, The UAE Can Easily Save Dubai.

Reuters:

- Activision Blizzard Inc said on Friday its "Call of Duty" video game franchise pushed past the $3 billion mark in global retail sales.

The Economic Times:

- I think there are some terms been negotiated that if Abu Dhabi does bail out Dubai with a $10 billion emergency loan kind of a thing right now -I think the payment is due on 12th - so then what are the terms and how they would like Dubai’s economy and financials to be manage hereafter. Now the way things stand today already the CDS spread and the sovereign yield they have gone up world over, people are again getting concerned whether the debt obligations will be met on 12th. The majority view is that within UAE Abu Dhabi is still financially strong, this is a very comfortable position to bail out Dubai, so over the weekend some solution will emerge and may be early next week Monday you will see that Dubai Authorities announcing that they are in the position to meet their debt obligations. That is a most likely scenario.

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
Small-Cap Growth (-1.07%)

Sector Outperformers:
Education (+.06%), Biotech (-.40%) and Retail (-.59%)

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
APWR, NTT, RINO, VIV and BCA

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
1) PXD 2) NFX 3) SQNM 4) SNV 5) PDCO

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Friday Watch

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:

- European stocks fell the most in seven months and bonds jumped as Dubai’s attempt to reschedule its debt rattled investors seeking higher returns in emerging markets. The dollar slid to a 14-year low against the yen. Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index retreated 3.3 percent at 5 p.m. in New York as a gauge of volatility posted its steepest surge in a year. The Shanghai Composite Index slumped 3.6 percent, the largest drop since August, and Brazil’s Bovespa Index slipped 2 percent. Credit-default swaps tied to debt sold by Dubai rose as much as 135 basis points to 575 according to CMA DataVision. U.S. markets are closed today for the Thanksgiving holiday.

- Japan’s unemployment rate in October unexpectedly fell for a third month, a sign that the worst may be over for the labor market. The jobless rate declined to 5.1 percent, the statistics bureau said today in Tokyo. The median forecast of 26 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was 5.4 percent. The rate has been declining since reaching a postwar high of 5.7 percent in July. “Two months of improvements can’t tell you very much, but a third consecutive improvement paints a clear trend,” said Masamichi Adachi, senior economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in Tokyo. “The world economy is clearly recovering, which means we won’t see the kind of aggressive job cuts like before even if we still won’t see a lot of hiring either.”

- Taiwan’s economy shrank at the slowest pace in a year in the third quarter as rising Chinese demand for the island’s electronics signaled it may soon emerge from a yearlong recession. Gross domestic product contracted 1.29 percent from a year earlier, the statistics bureau said yesterday in Taipei, after shrinking a revised 6.85 percent in the second quarter. The median estimate of 17 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for a 2.6 percent contraction. Signs of a recovery have prompted employers to start hiring, with Taiwan’s unemployment rate falling in October for the first time in more than a year, and companies including Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp. forecasting better sales. The benchmark Taiex index has climbed 69 percent in 2009 as investors bet the island’s economy is past the worst.

- Pledges by China and the U.S. to set numerical targets for their greenhouse-gas emissions through 2020 may improve chances for a global climate agreement at negotiations next month in Copenhagen. China’s cabinet yesterday said it will cut output of carbon dioxide per unit of gross domestic product by 40 percent to 45 percent from 2005. A day earlier, the U.S. said it will propose a direct CO2 reduction in the same period of about 17 percent, provided the cut lines up with a new domestic climate law. “The skies are clearing now,” Anders Turesson, Sweden’s chief climate negotiator, speaking on behalf of the 27-nation European Union, said in an interview. “We see more clearly now what the negotiations in Copenhagen are going to be about.”

- Gold imports by India, the biggest buyer, slumped for the seventh month as jewelers and housewives shunned bullion because of record prices, a traders’ group said. Purchases so far this month totaled about 18 tons compared with 34 tons a year ago, said Suresh Hundia, president of the Bombay Bullion Association Ltd., citing preliminary data. There may be 1.2 million marriages in India between now and Dec. 12, Hundia said. “Demand in India is nil when it should have been at its peak because of marriages,” he said by phone. Global gold consumption was 34 percent lower in the third quarter compared with a year ago, when investors bought bullion as a haven from the economic crisis, the World Gold Council said Nov. 19. Sales in the wedding season, which runs from September to January, may stay weak as buyers are “yet to digest” the 50 percent jump in prices in the past six months, Harmesh Arora, director of NIBR Bullion Ltd. and vice president of the bullion association, said in a phone interview.

- Japanese Finance Minister Hirohisa Fujii said he will contact authorities in the U.S. and Europe about currencies if necessary.

Wall Street Journal:

- Dubai World's restructuring isn't expected to impact one of the investment firm's largest U.S. projects: the $8.5 billion City Center Project in Las Vegas. MGM Mirage, which jointly owns the development on the Las Vegas Strip with Dubai World, said Dubai World had already fulfilled all of its commitments to funding City Center.

- A host of European banks face potential losses on an estimated $40 billion in exposure to Dubai after the city state's largest corporate entity, Dubai World, asked creditors for a six month standstill on debt repayments, raising fears that recent signs of improvements in banks' bad debt levels could stall. Most banks on Thursday said their exposure to Dubai and Dubai World is small or wouldn't comment.Switzerland's Credit Suisse Group (CS) said its exposure to Dubai World is "not material." According to analysis of Dealogic data, other banks who have worked on bond and loan financings for Dubai entities include Barclays PLC (BCS), Citigroup Inc. (C) and Deutsche Bank AG (DB). Barclays didn't immediately return calls. Citigroup declined to comment, while a person familiar with the matter said Deutsche Bank's exposure to Dubai World isn't noteworthy. Bank analysts at NCB Stockbrokers said Standard Chartered PLC (STAN.LN) is the U.K. bank proportionately most exposed to the United Arab Emirates, with 7% of its loan book in the region. HSBC has about 2% of its loan book in the region, while Barclays, RBS and Lloyds have less than 1% of their loans in the UAE. Dubai World accounts for about $60 billion of the city state's $80 billion in liabilities, of which half is estimated by analysts to be held by European banks. Banks that acted as arrangers or bookrunners on Dubai World's most recent $5.5 billion loan facility in June 2008 include HSBC, RBS, Lloyds Banking Group PLC (LYG), ING Groep N.V. (ING) and Credit Agricole SA's (ACA.FR) Calyon, as well as Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ (MTU), Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation (JD-SMU), Emirates Bank and Mashreq Bank (MASQ.DFM). Calyon in an email said it has a "small exposure" to Dubai World's debt, and that it doesn't think it has any cause to worry about the announced restructuring. ING said its exposure is negligible.

- "Change must come to Washington," Mr. Obama said in a June 2008 speech. "I have consistently said when it comes to solving problems," he told Jake Tapper of ABC News that same month, "I don't approach this from a partisan or ideological perspective." Mr. Obama also decried the prominent role played by lobbyists. "Lobbyists aren't just a part of the system in Washington, they're part of the problem," Mr. Obama said in a May 2008 campaign speech. I was reminded of this last statement by a recent headline on the front page of USA Today. It read: "Health care fight swells lobbying. Number of organizations hiring firms doubles in '09." The article suggested that what Mr. Obama had promised to fix had only gotten worse. Indeed that's the case. Washington is more partisan than ever, and more polarized.

- Apple Inc.'s(AAPL) iPhone on Saturday will finally go on sale in South Korea, a country that prides itself on creating and consuming cutting-edge technology but where the government raised trade barriers on smart phones to protect domestic manufacturers and carriers for several years. Since the availability and pricing of the iPhone was announced here last week, about 40,000 people placed pre-orders for it and the country's biggest seller of phones, Samsung Electronics Co., slashed the price of its most advanced and expensive phone, a touch-screen model like the iPhone called Omnia2.

- Where to Find Black Friday Deals.

- Voter Anger Is Building Over Deficits. The generic polls shows a 16-point swing to the GOP over last year. After engineering an unprecedented spending surge for nearly a year, President Barack Obama now wants to signal that he takes deficits seriously. So this week the White House announced that it is considering creating a commission to figure how to fix the budget mess. Eureka! Well, almost. What seems to concern the president is not the problem runaway spending poses for taxpayers and the economy. Rather, what bothers him is the political problem it poses for Democrats. Last year, Mr. Obama made fiscal restraint a constant theme of his presidential campaign. "Washington will have to tighten its belt and put off spending," he said back then, while pledging to "go through the federal budget, line by line, ending programs that we don't need." Voters found this fiscal conservatism reassuring. However, since taking office Mr. Obama pushed through a $787 billion stimulus, a $33 billion expansion of the child health program known as S-chip, a $410 billion omnibus appropriations spending bill, and an $80 billion car company bailout. He also pushed a $821 billion cap-and-trade bill through the House and is now urging Congress to pass a nearly $1 trillion health-care bill.

CNBC.com:

- US markets are bracing for a shakeup Friday after investors fled risk assets globally on concerns about Dubai's debt rescheduling. Markets worldwide reacted to concerns about bank exposure to the debt, particularly in Europe, and fears it is a signal of greater problems in emerging markets. US markets were closed, but the dollar was initially lower but bounced and traders said stocks pointed to a sharply lower opening on Friday.

IBD:

- The computer runs on software developed by online small-business marketing and printing company Vistaprint (VPRT). Vistaprint in April announced a multi-year pact with the FedEx Office (formerly FedEx Kinko's) arm of FedEx (FDX), which lets customers design, order and print customized products in 1,600 FedEx Office Print & Ship Centers in the U.S. or online at fedexoffice.com.

Business Week:
- Tesco Lands Deal to Sell Apple(AAPL) iPhones. In a blow to rivals Orange and Vodafone, British supermarket giant Tesco has snagged a deal to sell the iPhone before Christmas in partnership with carrier O2.

CNNMoney.com:

- Chart: iPod vs. iPhone. It took the iPod 17 quarters to reach 30 million units. The iPhone did it in 10.

Washington Post:

- Fannie Mae, the giant mortgage finance company that helps shape lending guidelines, plans next month to raise minimum credit score requirements and limit the amount of overall debt that borrowers can carry relative to their incomes. The changes are the latest in a series of crackdowns by the mortgage industry and could surprise some prospective home buyers. The industry is rolling back loose lending standards that led to the mortgage meltdown and the subsequent economic crisis. But the fear is that if the industry becomes too restrictive, it will freeze out too many borrowers and impede an economic recovery.

The Detroit News:

- ‘Climategate’ puts warming in question. President Barack Obama is about to stride off to Copenhagen, where he'll sign away any hope that America can return to sustained prosperity. The president promises next month's international palaver on climate change will be marked by aggressive action to combat global warming and a firm commitment by the United States to shoulder its share of the responsibility. Translation: Obama will pledge the United States to curbing its appetite for energy, and thus its economic growth, will make reducing emissions a higher priority than creating new jobs and will agree to transfer $1.6 trillion of our wealth to China, India and the other booming developing economies. And it may be based on doctored numbers. The so-called Climategate scandal hasn't hit the front pages of American newspapers yet and may never. But it ought to at least raise the skepticism level of a public that has been panicked into believing the sky is falling, or the polar caps are melting, because of manmade global warming. Purloined e-mails between some of the leading producers of climate change science reveal what seems to be a deliberate attempt to manipulate and distort data to deliver the desired outcome. The e-mails were hacked from the United Kingdom's University of East Anglia Climate Research Unit, an institution that has led in documenting global warming and whose findings have driven United Nations' environmental policy. The research unit has been notoriously protective of its data, fighting off those who want a closer look at its methodology. Messages between the unit's scientists and officials suggest a deliberate campaign to answer calls for public disclosure with a smear job against those who question the validity of climate change science. The scandal provides an opening for the United States, which will pay the highest price if a climate change treaty is signed, to say, "Let's call a time-out and look at the tape." Research skeptical of climate change is denounced as quackery. But science should never be "settled," as the global warming industry has declared this matter to be. Nor should it be cause driven, massaged to align with popular movements. It should be cold, impassive and willing to prove itself against dissenting theories. It should welcome new evidence, even if it alters its assumptions. This isn't how climate change scientists work, according to the stolen e-mails. The British center seems motivated entirely by defending its findings to perpetuate the public policies it worked so hard to influence. It also seems willing to destroy findings that dispute their established position. This is why we can't get a credible answer to why global temperatures have been flat for a decade. The warming warriors who cited every abnormality in weather patterns -- falling lake levels, droughts, hurricanes, milder winters -- as proof of climate change's impact, now tell us that the reversal or disappearance of those abnormalities are a cyclical blip within the longer trend. Maybe, maybe not. We can't be sure because the science is settled, and those who would tackle contrary research do so at their own peril. This matters because world leaders are about to embark on an environmental crusade that will dramatically alter the international economy and the quality of our lives. We are obliged to make sure the research can be trusted.

Reuters:

- A dollar bond sale by Saudi-backed Gulf International Bank (GIB) was pulled after Dubai said it was seeking to delay repayment on billions of debt owed by its two flagship firms, sources said on Thursday. The five-year bond for GIB, with an expected deal size of $500 million, was due to close on Wednesday but pricing failed to go ahead after Dubai's shock announcement. "Dubai is a massive event and we decided it would be prudent to postpone the GIB deal," said a syndicate member at one of the arranging banks.

- Iraq aims to install four new floating oil terminals and three new undersea oil pipelines that will boost export capacity to 8 million barrels per day from a current 1.9 million bpd, a top oil official said. Dhiya Jaafar, current chief of Iraq's South Oil Co. (SOC), which oversees the bulk of exports from the country's vast oil reserves, on Wednesday told Reuters work should be completed on the new terminals and pipelines in the second half of 2011. Iraq has a clutch of deals with global oil majors that it hopes will push it to third from eleventh place among the world's oil producers. A contract with Britain's BP and China's CNPC to develop the country's super-giant Rumaila field has already been finalized. BP, CNPC and the SOC have agreed that current production from Rumaila is 1.05 million bpd, Jaafar said. The baseline output figure will be used to determine the foreign firms' future performance in boosting output, to which their level of remuneration is pegged. Iraqi oil exports reached 1.868 million bpd in October, including exports from the country's northern fields.

- U.S. shoppers may stretch tight budgets this year to reward loved ones after months of thrift, a softening of heart that store chains hope will erase the holiday season sales debacle of 2008. Retailers from Wal-Mart Stores to Gap, RadioShack and Walgreens opened their doors on Thursday as U.S. families celebrated Thanksgiving, aiming to capture early bird shoppers a day before the official start of holiday shopping on "Black Friday."

Financial Times:

- It came in a short statement about the restructuring of Dubai World, one of the emirate’s biggest and best-known companies, with the big news buried near the end. But the decision to ask bondholders of the company and its most troubled subsidiary, Nakheel, to extend maturities from December to May 2010 was a bombshell. And the Middle East’s most glamorous and creative emirate will pay the price of its decision for a long time to come.

- Banks were scrambling to quantify potential losses in Dubai after Dubai World, the state’s holding company, shocked creditors by asking to halt debt repayments. Lenders such as Deutsche Bank, Credit Suisse, Citigroup and Barclays stressed privately on Thursday that their exposure to Dubai World was limited or insignificant.

Telegraph:

- Among the many great amusements of the Climategate scandal are the myriad imaginative excuses being offered by the implicated scientists and their friends in the MSM as to why this isn’t a significant story. Here are some of the best:

easyBOURSE:

- Deutsche Bank AG (DB) has no noteworthy exposure to the debt of Dubai World, a person familiar with the matter told Dow Jones Newswires Thursday.

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations

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Night Trading
Asian Indices are -2.0% to -1.50% on average.

Asia Ex-Japan Inv Grade CDS Index 126.0 +9.0 basis points.
S&P 500 futures -2.1%.
NASDAQ 100 futures -2.3%.

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BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are sharply lower, weighed down by commodity and automaker shares in the region. I expect US equities to open sharply lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.