BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher into the final hour on gains in my Technology longs, Medical longs and Biotech longs. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is neutral as the advance/decline line is about even, sector performance is mixed and volume is slightly below average. Investor anxiety is very high. Today’s overall market action is neutral. The VIX is rising +2.56% and is high at 21.65. The ISE Sentiment Index is below average at 114.0 and the total put/call is slightly below average at .78. Finally, the NYSE Arms has been running above average most of the day, hitting 1.41 at its intraday peak, and is currently 1.21. The Euro Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index is falling -1.94% to 71.99 basis points. This index is down from its record March 10th high of 208.75. The North American Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index is falling -1.61% 100.08 basis points. This index is also well below its Dec. 5th record high of 285.99. The TED spread is unch. at 22 basis points. The TED spread is now down 444 basis points since its all-time high of 463 basis points on October 10th. The 2-year swap spread is rising +6.42% to 36.25 basis points. The Libor-OIS spread is unch. at 11 basis points. The 10-year TIPS spread, a good gauge of inflation expectations, is +2 basis points to 2.20%, which is down -45 basis points since July 7th. The 3-month T-Bill is yielding .04%, which is unch. today.Given today’s news, the major averages are holding up relatively well so far.Tech stocks are outperforming today.Airline, Hospital, Telecom, Semi and Utility shares are all substantially outperforming, rising .5%+.CDS indices are falling again, which is a big positive.On the negative side, (XLF) has traded poorly since the open.Besides financials, healthcare and energy-related shares are particularly weak.I will wait and see the market’s internal reaction to tomorrow’s likely better economic data before shifting market exposure.Nikkei futures indicate a -12 open in Japan and DAX futures indicate an +10 open in Germany on tomorrow. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-lower into the close from current levels on more shorting, financial sector pessimism and profit-taking.
- BlueCrest Spends Big on Fast-Trading ‘Arms Race’ secretive hedge fund firm BlueCrest Capital Management is running some of the “black boxes” it uses for automated trading in screen-filled trading offices once used by Enron, overlooking Buckingham Palace gardens in London. It also has another data centre south of the River Thames. With roughly $15 billion in assets under management, with around 60 percent of that in its black box systematic trading strategies, BlueCrest relies on powerful computers that run programs designed by a small army of PhDs from among its 300-plus U.K.-based employees. BlueCrest, Europe’s third-biggest hedge fund firm and one of the biggest names in the area of high-frequency trading, has been one of the winners during the credit crisis with strong fund performance, helped by trading technology it built itself and infrastructure it compares to that of an investment bank.
- Gross exposures remain well below historical levels among funds of hedge funds, according to Standard & Poor’s latest update on the sector.“Many funds of hedge funds are still dealing with liquidity issues beyond the recovery in equity and credit markets,” says S&P Fund Services lead analyst Randal Goldsmith. “Underlying net market exposures within FOHFs are also below historical levels, but have increased during the third quarter. In general, net exposures have moved up only gradually because hedge fund managers held in FOHFs portfolios have not been convinced on the sustainability of the rally in markets and have preferred to concentrate on alpha generating opportunities.”
Reuters:
- Angola has 13.1 billion barrels of oil in reserves, enough to sustain a constant production of 1.9 million barrels per day for the next 15 years, state-owned Jornal de Angola reported on Thursday. Jornal de Angola quoted oil minister Botelho de Vasconcelos as saying Angola could pump 2.1 million barrels per day but its output capacity is currently limited because of the country's OPEC output quotas. He did not say how much Angola was currently producing. Traders say Angola has repeatedly pumped more oil than what it claims to be its 1.656 million barrel per day OPEC output target. Angola would in the next 12 to 18 months begin liberalizing its oil refining, storage, transportation and distribution businesses, all currently held by state-owned oil company Sonangol, Botelho de Vasconcelos said. Angola, which rivals Nigeria as Africa's biggest oil producer, expects to produce 1.9 million barrels of oil per day in 2010, up from an estimated 1.8 million barrels per day this year, according to the 2010 state budget plan.
- President Barack Obama’s administration won’t pressure Germany to send more combat troops to Afghanistan, US special envoy Richard Holbrooke said.Holbrooke, the special envoy for Afghanistan and Pakistan, said the US wants political commitments from NATO allies rather than “numbers.”