BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher into the final hour on gains in my Technology longs and Financial longs. I covered all of my (IWM)/(QQQQ) hedges, added to some existing longs and covered some of my (EEM) short this morning, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is slightly positive as the advance/decline line is about even, most sectors are rising and volume is about average. Investor anxiety is very high. Today’s overall market action is bullish. The VIX is falling -3.63% and is high at 22.83. The ISE Sentiment Index is about average at 144.0 and the total put/call is high at .97. Finally, the NYSE Arms has been running high most of the day, hitting 1.36 at its intraday peak, and is currently .92. The Euro Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index is rising +7.9% to 72.74 basis points. This index is down from its record March 10th high of 208.75. The North American Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index is declining -.14% to 97.73 basis points. This index is also well below its Dec. 5th record high of 285.99. The TED spread is down -1 basis point to 23 basis points. The TED spread is now down 443 basis points since its all-time high of 463 basis points on October 10th. The 2-year swap spread is falling -7.54% to 35.25 basis points. The Libor-OIS spread is unch. at 11 basis points. The 10-year TIPS spread, a good gauge of inflation expectations, is down -1 basis point to 2.12%, which is down -53 basis points since July 7th. The 3-month T-Bill is yielding .02%, which is unch. today.Tech stocks are outperforming today with the MS Tech Index rising +.7%.Market leaders are also outperforming for the second day in a row.Coal, Steel, Gold, Education, Wireless, Computer and Oil Service shares are all relatively strong, rising .75%+.Lack of buyers, as opposed to significant selling, had pulled the major averages off recent highs. The bullish action in key stocks today may indicate buyers are starting to materialize.Commodities trade very poorly despite US dollar weakness today.One of my longs, (AAPL), is jumping +3.5% today on rising optimism for their new tablet and comments from Piper Jaffray that there is a 70% chance the iPhone will come to Verizon next year. AAPL shares have likely bottomed after their recent pullback.Nikkei futures indicate a -69 open in Japan and DAX futures indicate an +14 open in Germany tomorrow. I expect US stocks to trade modestly higher into the close from current levels on short covering, bargain hunting, lower energy prices, less financial sector pessimism, diminishing emerging market debt angst and seasonal strength.
- Crude oil fell to a two-month low after a government report showed that U.S. fuel inventories climbed as refineries bolstered operating rates. Gasoline stockpiles rose 2.25 million barrels to 216.3 million, the report showed. Supplies of distillate fuel, a category that includes heating oil and diesel, increased 1.62 million barrels to 167.3 million. Refineries operated at 81.1 percent of capacity, up 1.4 percentage points from the previous week and the highest level since October. “Whenever refiners increase operating rates we get big builds in the products,” said Gene McGillian, an analyst and broker at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut. “As long as we get no indication that demand is recovering, this market will remain under pressure.” Total U.S. daily fuel demand averaged 18.5 million barrels in the four weeks ended Dec. 4, down 3 percent from a year earlier, the report showed.
- China’s monetary policy should aim to prevent rapid asset-price increases next year, Market News International reported, citing a researcher from the central bank.
- China issued policies to curb property speculation after home prices rose at the fastest pace in more than a year and Premier Wen Jiabao pledged support for affordable housing. The government will impose a sales tax on homes sold within five years of their purchase, increasing the time period covered by the charge from two years, the State Council, the nation’s cabinet, said yesterday after a meeting chaired by Wen. China reduced the penalty period of the tax to two years from five in January of this year to stem falling prices. “The Chinese central government wants to gradually control the bubble in the real estate market,” Andy Xie, former Morgan Stanley chief Asian economist, said by phone.
- Crude oil may tumble toward its 200-day moving average near $65 a barrel in New York after breaking through the bottom of a supporting channel, according to technical analysis by Commerzbank AG. Oil futures on the NY Mercantile Exchange dropped below $73.75 a barrel on Dec. 7. This point market the convergence of two channels, the yearlong upward corridor and a downward price-band that formed in October. With the intersection of the two the “up-trend channel” was broken, the bank said.
- The euro may drop against the dollar to a level last reached in August if it fails to rally past resistance levels, according to Citigroup Inc. The euro is facing a “bearish setup” versus the greenback, with a large gap between the 55- and 200-day moving averages, Citigroup’s Tom Fitzpatrick and Aron Gera in NY and Shyam Devani in London wrote in a note to clients today, citing momentum indicators. “Overall, we continue to expect a test of the 200-day moving average, which is now at $1.4118,” the analysts wrote.That would be a drop of more than 4% from yesterday’s close.
- At 46%, President Obama's latest job approval rating is the lowest ever in Quinnipiac polls, and he has an upside down rating for his handling of health care. The new survey (Dec. 1-6, 2313 RV, MoE +/- 2%), released this morning, finds 44% disapproving of the job Obama's doing. More than half (51%) of independents now disapprove of Obama's job performance, while 37% approve. In the RCP Average, Obama's job approval rating has fallen to a new low of 48.5%."The decline in Obama's overall approval in the last month has been small, with the exception of independent voters who went from three points negative to 14 points," said Quinnipiac assistant director Peter Brown. "If the trend continues, it won't be long before he could be in the unenviable position of having more Americans disapprove than approve of his job performance."
- Philippe Louis-Dreyfus, chairman of Louis Dreyfus Armateurs, expects bulk shipping rates for commodities to decline in 2010 and 2011.Louis-Dreyfus cited shipyard order books for his forecast.