Wednesday, December 09, 2009

Stocks Finish Higher, Led by Technology, Oil Service and Education Shares

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Stocks Reversing Higher into Final Hour on Bargain Hunting, Short-Covering, Lower Energy Prices

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher into the final hour on gains in my Technology longs and Financial longs. I covered all of my (IWM)/(QQQQ) hedges, added to some existing longs and covered some of my (EEM) short this morning, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is slightly positive as the advance/decline line is about even, most sectors are rising and volume is about average. Investor anxiety is very high. Today’s overall market action is bullish. The VIX is falling -3.63% and is high at 22.83. The ISE Sentiment Index is about average at 144.0 and the total put/call is high at .97. Finally, the NYSE Arms has been running high most of the day, hitting 1.36 at its intraday peak, and is currently .92. The Euro Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index is rising +7.9% to 72.74 basis points. This index is down from its record March 10th high of 208.75. The North American Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index is declining -.14% to 97.73 basis points. This index is also well below its Dec. 5th record high of 285.99. The TED spread is down -1 basis point to 23 basis points. The TED spread is now down 443 basis points since its all-time high of 463 basis points on October 10th. The 2-year swap spread is falling -7.54% to 35.25 basis points. The Libor-OIS spread is unch. at 11 basis points. The 10-year TIPS spread, a good gauge of inflation expectations, is down -1 basis point to 2.12%, which is down -53 basis points since July 7th. The 3-month T-Bill is yielding .02%, which is unch. today. Tech stocks are outperforming today with the MS Tech Index rising +.7%. Market leaders are also outperforming for the second day in a row. Coal, Steel, Gold, Education, Wireless, Computer and Oil Service shares are all relatively strong, rising .75%+. Lack of buyers, as opposed to significant selling, had pulled the major averages off recent highs. The bullish action in key stocks today may indicate buyers are starting to materialize. Commodities trade very poorly despite US dollar weakness today. One of my longs, (AAPL), is jumping +3.5% today on rising optimism for their new tablet and comments from Piper Jaffray that there is a 70% chance the iPhone will come to Verizon next year. AAPL shares have likely bottomed after their recent pullback. Nikkei futures indicate a -69 open in Japan and DAX futures indicate an +14 open in Germany tomorrow. I expect US stocks to trade modestly higher into the close from current levels on short covering, bargain hunting, lower energy prices, less financial sector pessimism, diminishing emerging market debt angst and seasonal strength.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

- The tumble in bonds of Dubai’s state- controlled companies to record lows signals growing concern more borrowers will fall behind on debt payments as Dubai World seeks to restructure $26 billion of obligations. “We are concerned that it’s just not Dubai World that has issues,” said Oliver Bell, the head of Middle East and Africa investment at Pictet Asset Management in London, which has $120 billion under management. “The health of other government- related entities is in question.”

- Global Climate-Change Efforts Would Get $1.3 Billion From US. Efforts to help poorer nations adapt to climate change and reduce greenhouse-gas emissions would receive $1.3 billion under a year-end spending plan approved by U.S. congressional negotiators. The $447 billion legislation, which provides funding for hundreds of government programs, includes provisions to promote clean energy, biodiversity and climate-change programs worldwide, said Ellis Brachman, a spokesman for the House Appropriations Committee. Climate-related programs managed by the World Bank are also funded under the legislation. Negotiators at United Nations climate-change talks in Copenhagen are seeking agreement on a $10 billion fund to help the most vulnerable nations adapt to the impacts of global warming. The U.S. contribution should be about $2 billion, U.S. Senator John Kerry, a Democrat from Massachusetts, said last week.

- Crude oil fell to a two-month low after a government report showed that U.S. fuel inventories climbed as refineries bolstered operating rates. Gasoline stockpiles rose 2.25 million barrels to 216.3 million, the report showed. Supplies of distillate fuel, a category that includes heating oil and diesel, increased 1.62 million barrels to 167.3 million. Refineries operated at 81.1 percent of capacity, up 1.4 percentage points from the previous week and the highest level since October. “Whenever refiners increase operating rates we get big builds in the products,” said Gene McGillian, an analyst and broker at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut. “As long as we get no indication that demand is recovering, this market will remain under pressure.” Total U.S. daily fuel demand averaged 18.5 million barrels in the four weeks ended Dec. 4, down 3 percent from a year earlier, the report showed.

- Treasuries fell after an investor class that includes foreign central banks bought the least amount since June of today’s $21 billion offering of 10-year securities.

- Billionaire investor George Soros, who helped push the U.K. out of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism in 1992, said France and Germany would like to see London’s financial-services industry “sink.” “There is thinking in continental Europe that would like to rein in London and see London sink,” Soros, 79, said today at a conference organized by the London School of Economics. “There is this Franco-German alliance, I nearly said conspiracy, an alliance or common ground.” The European Union is considering proposals that have been criticized in the U.K. financial community as undermining London’s competitive position as a global money center.

- China’s monetary policy should aim to prevent rapid asset-price increases next year, Market News International reported, citing a researcher from the central bank.

- China issued policies to curb property speculation after home prices rose at the fastest pace in more than a year and Premier Wen Jiabao pledged support for affordable housing. The government will impose a sales tax on homes sold within five years of their purchase, increasing the time period covered by the charge from two years, the State Council, the nation’s cabinet, said yesterday after a meeting chaired by Wen. China reduced the penalty period of the tax to two years from five in January of this year to stem falling prices. “The Chinese central government wants to gradually control the bubble in the real estate market,” Andy Xie, former Morgan Stanley chief Asian economist, said by phone.

- Petroleo Brasileiro SA(PBR), Brazil’s state-controlled oil producer, found evidence of oil for the first time in its BM-S-17 offshore block in the country’s southeastern Santos Basin. Latin America’s biggest company is investing billions of dollars to boost production by more than half and develop the Tupi field, the Americas’ largest oil discovery in more than three decades. The company aims to increase total output to 3.7 million barrels a day by 2013, from 2.4 million in 2008.

- Unemployment in the U.S. will exceed 10 percent through the first half of 2010, limiting a recovery in consumer spending and economic growth, a survey of economists showed. The world’s largest economy will expand 2.6 percent in 2010 after contracting 2.5 percent this year, according to the median forecast of 58 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The jobless rate will average 10 percent next year.

- Pimco Total Return Fund, run by Bill Gross since its inception in 1987, is set to become the biggest mutual fund in the industry’s history as individual investors mostly sit out the 2009 stock rally for the safety of bonds. Based on the pace of current inflows, Gross’s bond fund this month may surpass the record $202.3 billion reached by Growth Fund of America in 2007, according to researcher Morningstar Inc. Total Return managed $199 billion at Nov. 30, while Growth Fund, which buys stocks, had $153 billion.

- Crude oil may tumble toward its 200-day moving average near $65 a barrel in New York after breaking through the bottom of a supporting channel, according to technical analysis by Commerzbank AG. Oil futures on the NY Mercantile Exchange dropped below $73.75 a barrel on Dec. 7. This point market the convergence of two channels, the yearlong upward corridor and a downward price-band that formed in October. With the intersection of the two the “up-trend channel” was broken, the bank said.

- The euro may drop against the dollar to a level last reached in August if it fails to rally past resistance levels, according to Citigroup Inc. The euro is facing a “bearish setup” versus the greenback, with a large gap between the 55- and 200-day moving averages, Citigroup’s Tom Fitzpatrick and Aron Gera in NY and Shyam Devani in London wrote in a note to clients today, citing momentum indicators. “Overall, we continue to expect a test of the 200-day moving average, which is now at $1.4118,” the analysts wrote. That would be a drop of more than 4% from yesterday’s close.

- The Obama administration extended the $700 billion financial-rescue program(TARP) until October, arguing that the U.S. must hold on to the money in case of new financial shocks.

- Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling said the U.K. will force banks awarding discretionary bonuses of more than 25,000 pounds ($40,800) to pay a one-time levy of 50 percent. The tax, effective today, will be paid by all banks that operate in the U.K., including U.S. firms such as Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. Employees will still have to pay income tax on their bonuses, the Treasury said. The top tax rate on earnings of more than 150,000 pounds will rise to 50 percent in April, a measure announced earlier this year.


Wall Street Journal:

- A Transaction Tax Would Hurt All Investors. The unwanted consequences of the ‘Let Wall Street Pay for the Restoration of Main Street Act.’ "Wall Street" would not foot the bill for the presumed $150 billion tax. In fact, the tax would simply be added to the cost of doing business, burdening all investors, including 401(k) plans, IRAs and mutual funds.


CNBC:

- The North American job market is showing “good growth” from the bottom it reached early this year, Korn/Ferry International CEO Gary Burnison said.

- Still-cautious employers are slowly starting to hire temporary workers, a possible sign that a jobs recovery could be on its way.


MarketWatch.com

- Shares in Spain fell sharply on Wednesday after Standard & Poor's revised down its outlook on the country to negative from stable, saying it now expects a longer and deeper downturn here, just two days after warning Greece and Portugal over their own fiscal woes.


LA Times:

- The real fat cat party. If Republicans are 'the party of big business,' why are the Democrats raking in big bucks from industry after industry? The U.S. Climate Action Partnership, led by GE(GE), includes many other Fortune 500 companies, including Goldman Sachs(GS) -- the company that has profited mightily from Obama's brand of hope and change. CAP is an aggressive supporter of the Democrats' climate change scheme. Why? Because GE and company stand to make billions from carbon pricing, thanks largely to investments in technologies that cannot survive in a free market without massive subsidies from Uncle Sam. GE chief Jeffrey Immelt cheerleads big government as "an industry policy champion, a financier and a key partner." My biggest objection is not to what isn't true about the claim that the right is the handmaiden to big business, it's to what is true. Too many Republicans think being pro-business is the same as being pro-market. They defend the status quo against bad reforms and think they've defended economic freedom. The status quo stinks. And the sooner Republicans learn that, the sooner they'll deserve to win again.


The Business Insider:

- 2009 Silicon Alley 100: A-Z.


Washington Post:

- Copenhagen’s Political Science by Sarah Palin.


I, Cringely:

- Intel(INTC) Will Buy nVIDIA(NVDA).

Real Clear Politics:

- At 46%, President Obama's latest job approval rating is the lowest ever in Quinnipiac polls, and he has an upside down rating for his handling of health care. The new survey (Dec. 1-6, 2313 RV, MoE +/- 2%), released this morning, finds 44% disapproving of the job Obama's doing. More than half (51%) of independents now disapprove of Obama's job performance, while 37% approve. In the RCP Average, Obama's job approval rating has fallen to a new low of 48.5%."The decline in Obama's overall approval in the last month has been small, with the exception of independent voters who went from three points negative to 14 points," said Quinnipiac assistant director Peter Brown. "If the trend continues, it won't be long before he could be in the unenviable position of having more Americans disapprove than approve of his job performance."


Politico:

- House Republican leaders used a trip to the White House Wednesday to deliver a letter to President Barack Obama expressing concern with plans for a new economic stimulus bill, cap-and-trade legislation and the president’s trip next week to Copenhagen. At the White House for a meeting on jobs, the Republicans struck a cautionary note in their hand-delivered letter, writing that government intervention was not the way to create jobs. House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-Ohio), House Minority Whip Eric Cantor (R-Va.), House Republican Conference Chairman Mike Pence (R-Ind.) and Rep. Dave Camp (R-Mich.) also expressed concerns about a “binding emissions reduction scheme” they believe would cost U.S. jobs, referring to the administration’s plans for a political agreement on emissions standards that’s likely to be discussed at the U.N. climate conference in Copenhagen.


The Hill:

- Nearly $6 million in stimulus money was paid to two firms run by Mark Penn, Hillary Clinton’s pollster in 2008. Federal records show that $5.97 million from the $787 billion stimulus helped preserve three jobs at Burson-Marsteller, the global public-relations and communications firm headed by Penn.


Reuters:

- Demand for U.S. home loans rose last week to the highest level in about two months, mostly from borrowers taking advantage of low mortgage rates to refinance, the Mortgage Bankers Association said on Wednesday. Nearly three of every four loan requests was for a refinancing rather than a purchase, pointing to caution with unemployment at a double-digit rate and fear of job loss prevalent. Total mortgage applications, based on the group's seasonally adjusted market index, rose 8.5 percent to 665.6 last week to the highest since early October.

- Apple Inc(AAPL) is preparing to launch a tablet personal computer in late March or April, with manufacturer partners poised to roll out as many as 1 million units per month, according to an Oppenheimer research note.

- Traders have been scooping up Research in Motion's(RIMM) call options this week, betting the shares will benefit from a BlackBerry distribution deal in China and stronger-than-expected earnings.


La Tribune:

- Philippe Louis-Dreyfus, chairman of Louis Dreyfus Armateurs, expects bulk shipping rates for commodities to decline in 2010 and 2011. Louis-Dreyfus cited shipyard order books for his forecast.


Digitimes:

- DRAM prices are expected to bounce back in January 2010, according to Elpida Memory CEO Yukio Sakamoto, adding that he believes supply will run short of global DRAM demand in the upcoming year. Sakamoto also stressed Elpida's DRAM ties with Taiwan-based partners will remain close in the future. Sakamoto projected that DRAM demand bit growth will reach 50% in 2010, outpacing worldwide supply bit growth of 40%. Improved market conditions will help stabilize DRAM prices, said Sakamoto, adding that the price of mainstream DRAM chips will fluctuate between US$1.80 and $2.50 next year.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
Small-Cap Growth (-.78%)

Sector Underperformers:
Hospitals (-2.14%), Oil Tankers (-1.79%) and Homebuilders (-1.34%)

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

ECA, PL, CLMT, VQ, STD, BBV, TKC, TU, MTL, MDSO, WPRT, MDAS, DNDN, ARBA, NANO, ADSK, MW and PEP


Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
1) WMB 2) SD 3) HES 4) MMM 5) TSO

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
Large-Cap Growth (+.29%)

Sector Outperformers:
Steel (+1.78%), Oil Service (+1.25%) and HMOs (+.86%)

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
SSRI, SQNM, CLF, AAPL, HES, UNT, XCO, MBT, KTC, CCE, BAC, LQDT, HITK, CMTL, AVAV, SHLD, FMCN, GPOR, SHOO, SMED, CA, AMSC, ODFL, STRA, RIMM, GOLD, AAWW, ACGL, SSRI, COO, VCI and UNT


Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
1) LNC 2) SVU 3) SAP 4) SCHW 5) VRSN

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