-Lending by the top 22 recipients of U.S. government rescue funds declined by 1% for the seventh straight month in October, the Treasury reported Tuesday. Meanwhile, total originations of new loans remained flat in October after increasing 2% in September. In October, the top 22 TARP recipients originated $240 billion in new loans. New originations of mortgages and commercial loans increased, while new lending fell across all other loan categories, including home equity loans, credit cards and commercial real estate lending. Total outstanding balances of small-business loans remained flat in October, while small-business originations grew by 7%. New mortgage originations increased by 4%, fueled by a spike in refinancings.
- Chip maker Broadcom Corp (BRCM) raised its revenue guidance for the current quarter on Tuesday, citing better than expected demand in the broadband and enterprise networking segment. Broadcom now expects current quarter revenue to grow sequentially by 5 percent to $1.32 billion compared with its October guidance for $1.25 billion. Analysts on average had expected revenue of $1.26 billion for the quarter, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. "Our increased guidance reflects stronger than expected demand for products in our broadband and enterprise networking markets," Chief Executive Scott McGregor said in a statement. The company also said it now expects product gross margins be up 100 basis points, or 0.1 percent, from the third quarter. This compares with its previous expectation for an increase of 20 to 50 basis points.
Nikkei English News: - The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision has agreed to give major banks a transition period of at least 10 years to meet new capital adequacy rules.
Late Buy/Sell Recommendations Citigroup:
- Reiterated Buy on (AXP) and (COF).
Deutsche Bank:
- Raised (WFC) to Buy, target $36.
- Rated (H) Buy, target $34.
Morgan Stanley:
- Rated (SCHW) Overweight, target $23.
- Rated (CME) Underweight, target $311.
Oppenheimer:
- Rated (CB) Outperform, target $64.
- Rated (PGR) Underperform, target $15.
Night Trading Asian Indices are -.50% to +.25% on average.
Asia Ex-Japan Inv Grade CDS Index 97.0 -6.0 basis points.
S&P 500 futures -.05%.
NASDAQ 100 futures +.03%.
Earnings of Note Company/EPS Estimate - (JOYG)/1.02
- (HOV)/-1.75
- (PAYX)/.33
- (ABM)/.38
- (MLHR)/.19
- (APOG)/.19
- (NDSN)/.89
- (COMS)/.07
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
- The Consumer Price Index for November is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.3% gain in October.
- The CPI Ex Food & Energy for November is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.2% gain in October.
- The Current Account Deficit for 3Q is estimated to widen to -$107.5B versus -$98.8B in 2Q.
- Housing Starts for November are estimated at 574K versus 529K in October.
- Building Permits for November are estimated at 570K versus 551K in October.
10:30 am EST
- Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -2,000,000 barrels versus a -3,823,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are expected to rise by +1,300,000 barrels versus a +2,253,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate supplies are estimated to fall by -500,000 barrels versus a +1,619,000 barrel increase the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is expected to rise by +.3% versus a +1.39% gain the prior week.
2:15 pm EST
- The FOMC is expected to leave the benchmark fed funds rate at .25%.
Upcoming Splits - None of note
Other Potential Market Movers -The weekly MBA mortgage applications report, Bloomberg Global Confidence reading, (FSLR) guidance call, (DHR) investor day, (HON) 2010 guidance announcement and (GAS) analyst meeting could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by commodity and technology shares in the region. I expect US equities to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly higher into the final hour on gains in my Technology longs, Biotech longs and Medical longs. I added (IWM)/(QQQQ) hedges and added to my (EEM) short today, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. The tone of the market is mixed as the advance/decline line is about even, most sectors are declining and volume is below average. Investor anxiety is very high. Today’s overall market action is neutral. The VIX is rising +1.99% and is high at 21.57. The ISE Sentiment Index is below average at 124.0 and the total put/call is around average at .81. Finally, the NYSE Arms has been running high most of the day, hitting 1.73 at its intraday peak, and is currently 1.70. The Euro Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index is rising +5.3% to 73.99 basis points. This index is down from its record March 10th high of 208.75. The North American Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index is declining -.85% to 91.20 basis points. This index is also well below its Dec. 5th record high of 285.99. The TED spread is down -2 basis points to 21 basis points. The TED spread is now down 445 basis points since its all-time high of 463 basis points on October 10th. The 2-year swap spread is rising 2.01% to 35.89 basis points. The Libor-OIS spread is down -1 basis point to 8 basis points. The 10-year TIPS spread, a good gauge of inflation expectations, is up +5 basis points to 2.28%, which is down -37 basis points since July 7th. The 3-month T-Bill is yielding .04%, which is up +2 basis points today.Small-Cap and Cyclical shares are outperforming again today.The Russell 2000 is +.1% and the MS Cyclical Index is flat.“Growth” is outperforming “value.” Hospital, HMO, Construction, Oil Service, Education, Energy, Alt Energy and Coal shares are all higher on the day.The North Amer. Inv. Grd. CDS Index remains near its Sept lows, which is a large positive.Considering the amount of supply of stock that is hitting the market from banks, the market is holding up very well at the upper end of its trading range.On the negative side, some market leaders are displaying relative weakness today and (XLF) still trades “heavy.” I suspect the Fed will maintain the status quo tomorrow, but will likely increase the “hawkish” rhetoric.Nikkei futures indicate an +10 open in Japan and DAX futures indicate an +4 open in Germany tomorrow. I expect US stocks to trade modestly higher into the close from current levels on short covering, buyout speculation and seasonal strength.