Wednesday, January 20, 2010

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

- Chinese stocks slid, dragging the region’s benchmark to its third straight decline, after regulators told some of the nation’s banks to limit lending. The dollar gained against 14 of 16 of the most-traded currencies. The Shanghai Composite Index lost 2.9 percent and Hang Seng Index slipped 1.9 percent, leading declines in Asia.

- The US dollar and yen rose against most of their major counterparts as steps by China to limit bank lending reduced demand for higher-yielding assets. The euro fell to a five-month low versus the dollar as Greece’s bonds tumbled.

- Hedge funds’ best year in a decade is giving little comfort to Jason D. Papastavrou. The founder of New York-based ARIS Capital Management LLC, which has about $250 million invested in hedge funds, is still waiting to get back $155 million from 22 managers that restricted withdrawals in 2008. “We don’t object to the illiquidity,” Papastavrou said in an interview. “We object to how some managers are abusing the situation and holding investors’ money hostage to generate fees.”

- Funds of hedge funds trailed the recovery in the broader market last year and still bear the scars of investments in Bernard Madoff’s $65 billion Ponzi scheme, according to data from Hedge Fund Research Inc. The firm’s fund of funds index rose 11.6 percent last year, compared with a 20 percent jump in HFR’s Fund-Weighted Composite Index. That’s the biggest gap since the company began keeping records in 1990, HFR President Ken Heinz, told reporters today in London.

- Hiring for this year’s US census may distort employment figures to a greater degree than previous population counts did, if only because so many more jobs have to be filled. To conduct the 2010 count, the Census Bureau expects to hire about 1.15 million temporary workers in this year’s first half. Workers previously hired to prepare for the count bring the total to about 1.4 million, up from about 500,000 for the prior census, completed 10 years ago. The increase reflects the availability of funds from the economic-stimulus plan that President Barack Obama signed last February. In 1990 and 2000, the number of government employees reached its high in May. That’s likely to happen again this year, according to Nicholas Colas, chief market strategist at BNY ConvergEx Group. Colas estimated that the hiring of census workers will reduce the US unemployment rate to 9.5% in this year’s first half.

- Gold fell the most in a month as a stronger dollar reduced demand for the precious metal as a store of value. Platinum dropped from a 17-month high. The dollar rose as much as 1.1 percent against a basket of six major currencies on concern that the global recovery will slow as China acts to limit bank lending. Before today, gold gained 36 percent in the past year, touching a record last month, as the dollar slipped 8 percent. “Gold’s on the defensive because the dollar’s rallying,” said Marty McNeill, a trader at R.F. Lafferty Inc. in New York. “We’ve broken some technical support areas.”

- Exxon Mobil Corp.’s(XOM) $30 billion acquisition of XTO Energy Inc.(XTO) would expand natural gas production in shale formations, boosting the U.S. economy without harming the environment, Rex Tillerson, Exxon’s chief executive officer, told Congress. “We can now find and produce unconventional natural gas supplies miles below the surface in a safe, efficient and environmentally responsible manner,” Tillerson said in testimony today at a hearing before the House Energy and Environment subcommittee.

- General Re Corp., the reinsurer owned by Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc.(BRK/A), agreed to pay more than $60 million to end a U.S. investigation of its role in a sham transaction that misled American International Group Inc. investors, people familiar with the matter said. The agreement includes a $19.5 million payment and forfeiture of $12.2 million in alleged profit, said the people, who declined to comment because the talks aren’t public. They said much of the full obligation will be covered by a related settlement with AIG investors that was previously disclosed. The deal lets Gen Re avoid prosecution by the Justice Department and resolves civil claims by the Securities and Exchange Commission, the people said. General Re was involved in sham transactions with AIG in 2000 and a Prudential Financial Inc. division from 1997 to 2002 that helped those two companies manipulate financial statements, the SEC said in a complaint in federal court in Manhattan today. The AIG dealings allegedly helped AIG overstate loss reserves, a key indicator of an insurer’s health, by $500 million. “Gen Re and its senior management were aware that the true purpose of the transactions was to permit AIG to record and report phony loss reserves to calm analysts’ criticism,” the agency wrote in the complaint. The U.S. inquiry led to convictions of four former Gen Re executives, including ex-Chief Executive Officer Ronald Ferguson, 68, and one from AIG. The fraud cost AIG shareholders from $544 million to $597 million, a federal judge in Hartford, Connecticut, found. Two other Gen Re executives pleaded guilty.

- Goldman Sachs Group Inc.(GS), facing pressure from lawmakers to rein in pay, was sued by a shareholder who contends the bank’s executive compensation plan shortchanges investors. The Goldman Sachs board wasn’t acting in shareholders’ best interests when it approved executive pay and bonuses amounting to almost half the New York-based bank’s net revenue, the Southeastern Pennsylvania Transportation Authority said in a lawsuit filed yesterday in Delaware.

- The head of the FBI said the threat of a terrorist attack against the U.S. is becoming more worrisome “with each passing day.” Robert Mueller, director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation, told the Senate Judiciary Committee that law enforcement agencies have disrupted several plots in the past year as terrorists “remain determined to strike the United States.”


Wall Street Journal:

- A major aid organization that has been providing health care in Haiti for two decades warned that 20,000 quake victims are dying daily because of a lack of medical care, especially surgery. The alarm raised the possibility that because of Haiti's dire poverty and demolished port, far more victims will die in the second and third weeks than is normal in earthquakes, where most casualties occur in the first days. The country was rattled Wednesday morning by an aftershock, which alarmed residents but appeared to cause significant new destruction. The aftershock, which measured a 5.9 magnitude, was the largest of 49 aftershocks of magnitude 4.5 or greater that have followed the 7.0 quake on Jan. 12, according to the Associated Press. Even the mild damage caused by the aftershocks complicated efforts to bring desperately needed medical help.

- Worries about Greece’s fiscal woes may be spreading outward to other highly-indebted nations on Europe’s periphery. One sign of trouble: Investors are demanding higher yields to compensate for the increased risk of holding Portuguese, Spanish, Irish and Italian government bonds. On Wednesday, the “spread,” or difference, between yields on such bonds and safer German debt — a gauge of market fear — has jumped higher.

- Trading started Wednesday on a new credit-default swap index referencing sovereign borrowers from central and eastern Europe, the Middle East and Africa. The Markit iTraxx Sov-X CEEMEA index, which will enable investors to buy or sell default insurance on a basket of sovereign debt from the region, was recently quoted at 209/210 basis points in five year maturity, according to one market participant. Meanwhile, the 10-year maturity was trading around 211/214 basis points, according to the participant. The SovX CEEMEA constituents are Turkey, Hungary, Bulgaria, Qatar, Latvia, Kazakhstan, Russia, Abu Dhabi, Poland, Lithuania, Ukraine, Romania, the Czech Republic, South Africa and Croatia.

- NBC and “The Tonight Show” host Conan O’Brien continued Tuesday evening to close in on a deal for the comedian to exit the network, but a handful of issues remained outstanding, according to people familiar with the situation. One final obstacle, among others, is the amount of severance for staff of “Tonight,” the people said. Under the agreement, Friday night’s show would be the last for Mr. O’Brien and his staff. Other issues also remain in play, including smaller points about non-disparagement and the timing of severance payments, the people said. The deal currently on the table includes a payout of roughly $32 million to $35 million for Mr. O’Brien, along with about $12 million for the show’s staff, although those figures could still change, people familiar with the situation said. Mr. O’Brien’s representatives are asking for roughly $600,000 to cover several months of pay for staff, rather than weeks, those people said.

- Semiconductor inventories remain lean at electronic distributors and in most segments of the chip-supply chain, according to iSuppli Corp. Some analysts, including Mark Lipacis of Morgan Stanley (MS), recently have said semiconductors are shipping ahead of demand and semiconductor inventories are building. But ISuppli analyst Carlo Ciriello said the research firm's data indicate that inventory levels at distributors are well below the historical average. Distributors controlled 36.9 days of inventory at the end of the third quarter, down 15% from a year earlier, according to iSuppli. In dollar terms, distributors held $4.8 billion worth of semiconductor inventory at the end of the third quarter, down 22%. iSuppli expects to see a small rise in inventory dollars once fourth-quarter figures are released, but said days of inventory at distributors should continue to decline. At the end of the fourth quarter, days of inventory were 19% less than the three-year historical average, the firm estimates. Days of inventory at semiconductor makers also decreased 11% to 66.4 at the end of the third quarter from a year earlier. Chip inventories are low in most other segments of the electronics supply chain, including at makers of personal computers, storage devices and cell phones, meaning higher demand for those products is likely to boost semiconductor sales. Worldwide semiconductor revenue is expected to grow 15% this year after falling an estimated 12% last year, iSuppli predicts.


MarketWatch.com:

- Shares of German solar companies declined on Wednesday, as the government in Berlin proposed a 15% cut in the subsidies it provides. Germany's environment minister, Norbert Roettgen, proposed on Wednesday a 15% reduction in feed-in tariffs for solar power, according to media reports. The cut will go into effect in April for roof installations and in July for open-field sites. It's been widely expected that the center-right government of Chancellor Angela Merkel will implement some cuts to the solar feed-in tariffs.

- U.S. airlines posted their first month of cargo traffic growth in November since July, 2008, driven by an increase in global trade, the Air Transport Association said Wednesday.

- New highs for the new-high data. Bull markets don’t end when lots of stocks are hitting new highs.


CNBC:

- Demand for U.S. home loans rose last week for the third straight week as mortgage rates fell to a one-month low and stoked refinancing, an industry group said on Wednesday.

- Major banks continued to post mixed results on Wednesday, reflecting the industry's slow recovery, but there were some signs that the worst may be over for the battered sector.


NY Post:

- As Goldman Sachs'(GS) employees await word on the size of their bonuses, the gold-plated bank is hoping to tamp down some of the expected public rage by delaying details of the payments for at least another week -- after the bank reports earnings tomorrow and after rivals reveal their compensation plans. Typically, banks will provide compensation details at the same time they report earnings. Goldman is expected to report full-year results tomorrow. However, some sources told The Post they suspect Goldman CEO Lloyd Blankfein is delaying when he tells his employees about compensation to deflect attention from the firm, especially since other firms, including rival Morgan Stanley, will report earlier than Goldman.


The Business Insider:

- Gene Munster: Why Verizon(VZ) Will Get The iPhone This Year.

- It's not just perma-skeptics like Jim Chanos warning about a massive real estate bubble in China. The latest is Fred Hu, the Goldman Sachs Inc.(GS) Chinese Chairman. ChinaPost reports (via Alphaville) that Hu told a conference in Taipei that Singapore, Hong Kong, and Mainland China all need to be on the lookout. Bear in mind this isn't just talk from the bank. Earlier this month it emerged that Goldman has been dumping real estate holdings in Shanghai.


Daily Beast:

- He’s Done Everything Wrong by Mort Zuckerman. Obama punted on the economy and reversed the fortunes of the Democrats in 365 days. He’s misjudged the character of the country in his whole approach. There’s the saying, “It’s the economy, stupid.” He didn’t get it. He was determined somehow or other to adopt a whole new agenda. He didn’t address the main issue. This health-care plan is going to be a fiscal disaster for the country. Most of the country wanted to deal with costs, not expansion of coverage. This is going to raise costs dramatically. In the campaign, he said he would change politics as usual. He did change them. It’s now worse than it was. I’ve now seen the kind of buying off of politicians that I’ve never seen before. It’s politically corrupt and it’s starting at the top. It’s revolting. I’m very disappointed. We endorsed him. I voted for him. I supported him publicly and privately. I hope there are changes. I think he’s already laid in huge problems for the country. The fiscal program was a disaster.


BusinessWeek:

- Warren Buffett opposes President Barack Obama’s proposed levy on financial institutions because firms including Goldman Sachs Group Inc.(GS) and Wells Fargo & Co.(WFC) already repaid bailout funds, he told CNBC. ‘It just doesn’t make any sense to me,” said Buffett, whose Berkshire Hathaway Inc. is an investor in Wells Fargo and Goldman Sachs, in an interview on the cable business news network. “A tax that is enacted with the idea that a certain amount of vengeance will be achieved, I don’t think that will be a good idea,” said Buffett, who supported Obama in the 2008 election. Berkshire invested $5 billion in Goldman Sachs in 2008, acquiring preferred stock that pays a 10 percent dividend. The Omaha, Nebraska-based company also gained five-year warrants to buy $5 billion of common stock at $115 per share.

- Medical Device Makers May Gain If US Health Plan Fails, JPMorgan Says.

- Newell Rubbermaid Inc.(NWL) is recalling 1.5 million strollers after reports of children’s fingertips getting caught in the products’ hinges, resulting in cuts and amputations, the U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission said. Newell Rubbermaid’s Graco unit received reports of five amputations and two lacerations after children placed their fingers in the strollers’ hinges while the canopy was being opened or closed, the agency said.

- New Jersey’s unemployment rate climbed to an almost 33-year high of 10.1 percent in December, according to the state’s labor department. The rate was above the national level, now 10 percent, for the first time since October 2006, the department said in a statement today.

- Labor leaders, who spent the first year of Barack Obama’s presidency taking advantage of renewed influence in Washington, may struggle to achieve their agenda after Republican Scott Brown won a Senate seat in Massachusetts. “Labor is the real loser in last night’s election,” said Gary Chaison, an industrial relations professor at Clark University in Worcester, Massachusetts, in an interview today. “Labor was ineffective in getting out the vote for a Democrat. The administration under these circumstances is not going to push for their agenda.”


Washington Times:

- The White House National Security Council recently directed U.S. spy agencies to lower the priority placed on intelligence collection for China, amid opposition to the policy change from senior intelligence leaders who feared it would hamper efforts to obtain secrets about Beijing's military and its cyber-attacks. The downgrading of intelligence gathering on China was challenged by Director of National Intelligence Dennis C. Blair and CIA Director Leon E. Panetta after it was first proposed in interagency memorandums in October, current and former intelligence officials said.


R&D:

- Veeco Instruments Inc. (VECO) announced today the introduction of the TurboDisc K465i gallium nitride (GaN) Metal Organic Chemical Vapor Deposition (MOCVD) System for the production of high-brightness light-emitting diodes (HB LEDs). Veeco's industry-leading beta site customers rapidly qualified the K465i for volume production, and the Company has received orders for the system from multiple LED customers throughout the Asia Pacific region.


Rassmussen:

- Forty-seven percent (47%) of U.S. voters rate President Obama’s handling of the health care issue as poor, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey. Only 32% say the president has done a good or excellent job on the issue that has increasingly come to dominate the national political debate as the plan proposed by Obama and congressional Democrats struggles through Congress.

- Voters aren’t happy with the latest tax proposed to help pay for the trillion-dollar national health care plan, and they’re even unhappier with exempting labor unions from that tax. A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that just 33% of U.S. voters support enacting a significant excise tax on the most expensive health insurance plans provided by employers. Sixty-three percent (63%) oppose the excise tax on so-called “Cadillac” health insurance plans, up five points from late December. Only 10% Strongly Support it and 42% Strongly Oppose the excise tax. To keep union support for the overall health care plan, President Obama and Democratic leaders agreed last week to exempt union members from the tax for five years and modify it in other ways so they don’t pay as much. Voters really frown on that action. Only 27% support the excise tax if it exempts union members, while 70% are opposed. But even more significantly, if the union members are exempt 11% Strongly Support the tax while 51% Strongly Oppose it.


Politico:

- Rep. Barney Frank (D-Mass.) released a statement Tuesday night warning that it would be wrong "to pass a health care bill as if the Massachusetts election had not happened." The statement seems to advocate against ramming reform through Congress before Republican Scott Brown is seated and acknowledges that the House-Senate-White House negotiations are likely over. The liberal congressman said he was "disappointed" in Tuesday's election results—and that with Brown's victory, "a reasonable compromise" between the House and Senate bills is no longer possible and support from GOP senators is now required to move the legislation. "I feel strongly that the Democratic majority in congress must respect the process and make no effort to bypass the electoral results," Frank said.

- Scott Brown's opposition to congressional health care legislation was the most important issue that fueled his U.S. Senate victory in Massachusetts, according to exit poll data collected following the Tuesday special election. Fifty-two percent of Bay State voters who were surveyed as the polls closed said they opposed the federal health care reform measure and 42 percent said they cast their ballot to help stop President Obama from passing his chief domestic initiative. "I'm not surprised it was the top issue, but I was surprised by how overwhelming an issue it was. It became a focal point for the frustration that has been brewing with voters, and it's a very personal issue that affects everyone," said Tony Fabrizio of Fabrizio, McLaughlin & Associates, a Republican firm that conducted the exit poll of 800 voters.

- Scott Brown has turned this town upside down. Usually, the tendency among political reporters and operatives alike is to overreact and overinterpret elections. And there are caveats to the stunner in Massachusetts. Yes, this was a special election, which often produces unusual results. Yes, Democrat Martha Coakley ran a timid, sometimes terrible, campaign for Ted Kennedy’s old Senate seat. And it’s true that Massachusetts is not as liberal as many people assumed. But none of that counters the stunning reality of an election where breathtaking results more than justify breathless analysis. Here’s why:


Reuters:

- The Iraqi Oil Ministry will sign a final deal to develop the 12.9 billion barrel supergiant West Qurna Phase Two oilfield with Russia's Lukoil and Norway's Statoil on Jan. 31, an Iraqi official said.

- The top Republican in the Senate, Mitch McConnell, said on Wednesday that there was barely any support in that chamber for passing cap and trade legislation that aims to control global warming.


Financial Times:

- Energy analyst Olivier Jakob from Petromatrix has crunched through the CFTC’s proposals on position limits released last week. His findings are worth flagging up because they differ to the consensus view that the proposals, if enforced, would be a benign influence on energy markets. First, he guesstimates the limits would certainly affect at least one large Wall Street investment bank offering a leading commodity index. And while the bank — which he does not name — could apply for an exemption to a maximum of 130,000 WTI contracts on a single month, they would then be prohibited from holding speculative positions. In other words, would it be worth it? According to Jakob, therefore, the limits create an uncomfortable situation for some of the larger Wall Street investment banks offering commodity indices — and could force them to choose between operating index and swap businesses versus proprietary books. Furthermore, there isn’t an easy side-route out of the restrictions, say by starting subsidiary hedge funds or physical operations. That’s because the limits are imposed on an aggregate basis per owner institution — and when exemptions are granted, speculative operations are restricted. In smaller markets like heating oil, meanwhile, this could pose an even greater challenge for the banks, according to Jakob. And while ETFs like the United States Natural Gas fund — which famously broke through accountability limits in 2009 – may have prepared for the CFTC ruling by moving into the bilateral and unregulated OTC swap market, they too might be restricted by the CFTC’s swap-dealer ruling.


Telegraph:

- Barclays may have to axe its dividend and extend the begging bowl to shareholders again to fund a £17bn shortfall in capital under proposed new global rules for the banks.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
Small-Cap Growth (-1.74%)

Sector Underperformers:
Gold (-5.0%), Oil Tankers (-3.46%) and Steel (-3.43%)

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

BBD, TNE, NARA, WTI, CLF, RTP, REP, MICC, CNC, AGP, HMSY, TNDM, BBBB, PPDI, CNK, SPW, RDY, CSX, COH, TNE, UHS and EDU


Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
1) GA 2) TYC 3) ITUB 4) KCI 5) EWW

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
Large-Cap Value (-1.23%)

Sector Outperformers:
Banks (+.55%), Restaurants (-.60%) and Semis (-1.06%)

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
EAT, CBRL, CI, THO, IOC, TRGL, STT, NTRS, CREE, RMBS, CETV, PFCB, DEER, SHPGY, VECO, AMED, FSYS, TESO, AFAM, LCAPA and KELYA


Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
1) CREE 2) EAT 3) NTRS 4) KEY 5) IGT

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Tuesday, January 19, 2010

Wednesday Watch

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:

- President Barack Obama said he’s adding more money for education in his budget to improve test scores and help students succeed in an increasingly competitive global economy. Obama said he’s proposing putting $1.35 billion in his fiscal 2011 budget to expand the so-called Race to the Top program, in which states compete for grants by embracing Obama’s education agenda.

- Al-Qaeda may be training U.S. citizens in Yemen to conduct terrorist attacks, the Senate Foreign Relations Committee said in a report issued before a hearing on the country set for tomorrow. Some in a group of 36 convicted American criminals who arrived in Yemen in the past year, saying they were studying Arabic, have disappeared and may have gone to al-Qaeda training camps in ungoverned parts of the country, according to the report issued by Senator John Kerry, the Massachusetts Democrat who chairs the committee. Findings were based on interviews by committee staff with law-enforcement and intelligence officials.

- The euro fell to the lowest level in almost four weeks against the dollar as Germany’s investor confidence slid more than estimated and Europe’s finance chiefs said Greece may have to do more to contain its budget crisis.


Wall Street Journal:

- A little-known Republican upended the balance of power in Washington by winning a U.S. Senate seat in Massachusetts, a result that imperils President Barack Obama's top legislative priorities and augurs trouble for his party in this year's elections. With 75% of the vote counted, Republican Scott Brown was leading his opponent, Massachusetts' Democratic Attorney General Martha Coakley 52.7% to 46.3%, according to the Associated Press, which declared Mr. Brown the winner.

- Democrats' loss in Tuesday's race for a Massachusetts Senate seat is a stark illustration of their collapsing support from independent voters, a phenomenon that's prompting party leaders to revamp their playbook for this year's midterm elections. Independent voters—typically centrist, white and working-class—backed President Barack Obama and the Democrats in 2008. But Massachusetts is now the third Obama-won state in the past three months where independents have swung decisively Republican.

- After months of wrangling, the city council tentatively passed an ordinance to regulate the hundreds of medical marijuana dispensaries that have popped up here in the absence of municipal restrictions. The new law, which is expected to get final approval next week, would sharply limit the number of dispensaries to no more than about 137, with the aim of eventually getting the number down to 70. The city has no exact count for how many dispensaries are operating currently, but several hundred are estimated to be exist.

- The Federal Housing Administration will announce more stringent lending requirements on Wednesday to cushion against rising defaults and to stave off the need for a possible taxpayer bailout.

- More federal judges are showing leniency toward individuals who view child pornography but who aren't themselves molesters, according to recent data on prison sentences.

- New Wave of Warlords Bedevils US.

- The majority party normally loses seats in midterm elections, but the Republican resurgence of recent months is more than a conventional midterm rebound. How can a little known Republican run a competitive Senate campaign in Massachusetts? The culprit is the unpopularity of health reform, and it means that Democrats will face even worse problems later this year in less liberal places than Massachusetts.

- Virtual Dashboards: The Next Must-Have? Your iPhone operates by the touch of your fingers. Why not your car?


MarketWatch.com:

- Samsung Electronics will pay Rambus Inc. $700 million over five years, and invest another $200 million in the chip design company as part of a settlement ending their legal disputes, the two companies said Tuesday. Shares of Rambus (RMBS) jumped more than 12% in after-hours trading, later paring some gains but still up by more than 8%.


CNBC:

- President Obama and his Democratic Party have declined considerably in popularity in the year since he took office, weighed down by public discontent over the economy and the health care debate in Congress, according to a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.

IBD:
-
Taleo Corp. (TLEO) software is at the heart of corporate job Web sites that sift through applicant resumes to recruit new hires. With unemployment stuck at a disturbingly high 10%, this would not seem to be the time to tie your fortunes to corporate hiring. But Taleo has managed to grow and expand its business.

NY Times:

- The world's economy is recovering more strongly than expected and the projected growth rate in 2010 is likely to beat the forecast 3 percent, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, the head of the International Monetary Fund, said on Wednesday.


CNNMoney.com:

- One week after the devastating earthquake struck near Haiti's capital, donations for relief efforts are still pouring in -- in excess of $220 million. Charities, companies, individuals and celebrities across the U.S. have been rallying together in the aftermath of the 7.0-magnitude quake last Tuesday, and their efforts are paying off.


Business Insider:

- More kids are getting mobile phones: Last year, more than 35% of U.S. children ages 10-11 had cellphones, almost double the amount in 2005, according to Mediamark data, via eMarketer. And even more than 5% of 6-7-year-olds had cellphones last year. Takeaway: The audience for kids-focused mobile content, apps, and advertising is growing rapidly.


Business Week:

- BHP Billiton Ltd.(BHP), Australia’s biggest oil and gas producer, boosted its forecast for petroleum exploration spending by 33 percent because of an increase in drilling in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico and offshore Australia. BHP, also the world’s largest mining company, expects to spend $800 million on oil and gas exploration in the year ending June 30, $200 million more than previously projected, the Melbourne-based company said in a statement today. “The reality of higher oil prices has reinforced the need to crank up exploration spending,” Gavin Wendt, a resources analyst at Mine Life Pty, said by phone from Sydney. “Companies now have the confidence to go out and spend the money.”


Politico:

- The Coakley campaign is bridling at finger-pointing from the White House and Washington Democrats, and an outside adviser to the campaign has provided to POLITICO a memo aimed at rebutting the charge that Coakley failed and making the case that national Democrats failed her. The adviser, who made the case to my colleague Jonathan Martin on the condition of anonymity in response, he said, to "the current leaking coming out of the White House and the DNC that is chalking all of this up to a “bad candidate”. The adviser, who cited internal polling numbers to make the case, e-mails that, "There’s more to the story than that. If Martha is guilty of taking the race for granted, so is the White House and the DNC."

- Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif) said Tuesday that House Democrats are still "right on course" with the health care reform bill, regardless of what happens in the Massachusetts special election—and that she has not been pressured by the White House to simply accept the Senate bill if GOP candidate Scott Brown wins.


Rasmussen Reports:

- Republican candidates still hold an eight-point lead over Democrats in the latest edition of the Generic Congressional Ballot. The latest national telephone survey shows that 45% would vote for their district’s Republican congressional candidate while 37% would opt for his or her Democratic opponent.

- Rasmussen Reports has conducted an Election Night survey of 1,000 voters in the Massachusetts special election for U.S. Senate. Data will be released on this page throughout the evening. · 78% of Brown voters Strongly Oppose the health care legislation before Congress. · 52% of Coakley supporters Strongly Favor the health care plan. Another 41% Somewhat Favor the legislation. · 61% of Brown voters say deficit reduction is more important than health care reform. · 46% of Coakley voters say health care legislation more important than deficit reduction. · 86% of Coakley voters say it’s better to pass the bill before Congress rather than nothing at all. · 88% of Brown voters say it’s better to pass nothing at all.

Real Clear Politics:

- Analysis: Democrats' health care quest has soured.


Reuters:

- Q+A-What the Massachusetts upset means to Obama agenda.

- IBM (IBM) raised its 2010 profit target and reported a stronger-than-expected, 9 percent increase in fourth-quarter earnings, as cost cuts and a shift to more profitable contracts helped it weather a slump in corporate spending. IBM's share price fell 2 percent after the results, however, as the results failed to encourage more buying in the shares which already rallied nearly 60 percent in the past year.

- Cree Inc (CREE), which makes light emitting diode (LED) fixtures, said on Tuesday that second-quarter profit more than tripled and topped Wall Street estimates, sending the company's shares up 10 percent in extended trade.

- Six Republican senators took aim at the Obama administration's Christmas eve decision to give mortgage companies Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE) unlimited access to a Treasury credit line. The senators called on Senate Banking Committee Chairman Chris Dodd to hold public hearings and scrutinize the decision to turn the government-sponsored enterprises into "public utilities."The current status of the GSEs is untenable ... and we feel that it would be irresponsible for the committee to fail to investigate Treasury's drastic action with regard to what could be the next chapter in our financial crisis," Senator Jim DeMint of South Carolina wrote to Dodd, a Connecticut Democrat who recently announced his decision not to seek re-election in November.


Financial Times:

- Bank of China is emerging as one of the largest non-US banks investing in the troubled US commercial property sector, and its local bankers are scouring the market for new deals. With most US banks paralyzed and the market for commercial mortgage-backed securities frozen, foreign banks are now providing more than 60 per cent of all debt financing for commercial real estate, according to data from CB Richard Ellis.

- Debit card spending is on track to overtake cash as a payment method in the UK this year, according to Visa Europe, the card processor.

TimesOnline:
- Roof-mounted wind turbines and solar panels are “eco-bling” that allow their owners to flaunt their green credentials but contribute very little towards meeting Britain’s carbon reduction targets, according to the Royal Academy of Engineering. Developers will waste millions of pounds installing such micro-generation devices unless the Government revises its building regulations on carbon-neutral homes and offices.

The Economic Times:

- More than 4.2 billion dollars was spent on mobile phone applications last year with Apple grabbing over 99 percent of the growing market, according to research firm Gartner. Apple accounted for at least 99.4 percent of the 2.516 billion downloads of the mini-programs for smartphones last year, Gartner said. Gartner put revenue from mobile phone applications at 4.24 billion dollars in 2009 and predicted it would rise to 6.8 billion dollars this year and 29.5 billion dollars by 2013.


Evening Recommendations

Citigroup:

- Reiterated Buy on (GOOG), target $640.

- Rated (OMC) Buy, target $47.


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Briefing.com Bond Ticker

US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Stock Quote/Chart
WSJ Intl Markets Performance
Commodity Futures
IBD New America
Economic Preview/Calendar
Earnings Calendar

Conference Calendar

Who’s Speaking?
Upgrades/Downgrades

Politico Headlines
Rasmussen Reports Polling


Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
- (STT)/.99

- (USB)/.29

- (PGR)/.37

- (BK)/.52

- (BAC)/-.52

- (COH)/.72

- (EAT)/.22

- (WFC)/.00

- (MS)/.41

- (JEF)/.36

- (FFIV)/.49

- (EBAY)/.40

- (XLNX)/.34

- (NVEC)/.54

- (SBUX)/.27

- (AMR)/-1.21

- (KMP)/.49


Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

- The Producer Price Index for December is estimated unch. versus a +1.8% gain in November.

- The PPI Ex Food & Energy for December is expected to rise +.1% versus a +.5% gain in November.

- Housing Starts for December are estimated to rise to 572K versus 574K in November.

- Building Permits for December are estimated to fall to 580K versus 589K in November.


Upcoming Splits

- None of note


Other Potential Market Movers
- The Fed's Dudley speaking, weekly API energy inventory report, weekly MBA mortgage applications report and the (SPW) investor meeting
could also impact trading today.


BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are slightly lower, weighed down by financial and industrial stocks in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.