Monday, July 19, 2010

Today's Headlines


Bloomberg:

  • Homebuilder Confidence in U.S. Falls to One-Year Low. Builders in the U.S. turned more pessimistic in July than forecast, a sign the expiration of a government tax credit will depress home construction. The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo confidence index dropped to 14 this month, the lowest level since April 2009, from 16 in June, data from the Washington- based group showed today. “The housing sector is going to be in a hangover for a few months and it looks like it will be quite a nasty one,” said David Sloan, a senior economist at 4Cast Ltd. in New York, who correctly forecast the decline. “This will weigh on growth in the third quarter and well into the fourth quarter as well.” The builders group’s index of current single-family home sales fell to 15 from 17. The gauge of buyer traffic dropped to 10 from 13 the prior month. A measure of sales expectations for the next six months decreased to 21, the lowest level since March 2009, from 22. Home seizures climbed 38 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier, RealtyTrac Inc. said last week, putting lenders on pace to claim more than 1 million properties this year.
  • Commodity Manipulation May Be Easier to Prove After Overhaul. Traders will face new rules aimed at making it easier for regulators to prove manipulation in markets for commodities such as oil, wheat and natural gas under the financial overhaul awaiting President Barack Obama’s signature. The regulations, written in part by Senator Maria Cantwell, a Democrat from Washington state, attempt to relieve the Commodity Futures Trading Commission of the burden of proving a trader intended to manipulate prices. Instead, the CFTC will have to show the trading was “reckless.” “It will make it easier for the CFTC to bring cases and get people to settle, because people will be reluctant to go to court,” said Geoffrey Aronow, former director of enforcement at the commission and a partner at the Washington law firm Bingham McCutchen LLP.
  • Gold 100-Day Moving Average Signals Drop: Technical Analysis. Gold may extend declines to the lowest price in almost three months after slipping below a key moving average, according Bayram Dincer at LGT Capital Management.
  • Intel(INTC), Yum(YUM) Show Dual-Speed Economy as Technology Outperforms. Intel Corp. Chief Executive Officer Paul Otellini told investors July 13 he is seeing “renewed economic momentum.” A day later, Yum! Brands Inc. Chief Financial Officer Richard Carucci predicted “sustained unemployment and a concerned U.S. consumer.”The contrasting views of companies reporting second-quarter earnings illustrate the two-speed economic recovery: Production of business equipment has jumped 5 percent this year through June, while consumer goods have risen 0.2 percent, Federal Reserve data show.
  • Gulf Oil Spill May Cost 17,000 Jobs, Moody's Says. BP Plc’s(BP) oil spill may cost the U.S. Gulf Coast region 17,000 jobs and about $1.2 billion in lost economic growth by year-end even if the flow is stanched permanently next month, Moody’s Analytics said in a report. Under a more pessimistic scenario in which the oil spill continues through December and President Barack Obama’s six- month moratorium on deepwater drilling is extended, economic losses may reach $7.4 billion, and more than 100,000 jobs would be lost, Moody’s said today in a report written by Marisa Di Natale, a director based in West Chester, Pennsylvania.

Wall Street Journal:
Bloomberg Businessweek:
  • Hungary-IMF Talks Breakdown Is 'Bad News,' Moody's Says. Moody’s Investor Service said the breakdown of talks between Hungary and the country’s international creditors on the further availability of a 2008 rescue loan “is bad news.” Failure to agree on fiscal targets to secure the backing of the International Monetary Fund and the European Union triggers “market volatility” and increases uncertainty about government policies, said Dietmar Hornung, Moody’s lead analyst for Hungary, in a telephone interview from Frankfurt. “If you have a large debt to gross-domestic-product ratio you are susceptible to an increase in financing costs.”
  • Wheat Prices Peaking as Glut Subdues Best Performer. The five-week rally in wheat that made it the best performer of any commodity is under threat as prospects for the second-biggest stockpiles in almost a decade overwhelm damage caused by drought. Wheat rose 35 percent to $5.78 a bushel in Chicago since June 9 as a lack of rain in Russia, Kazakhstan and the European Union and floods in Canada hurt crops. That prompted the U.S. Department of Agriculture on July 9 to cut harvest estimates by 1.1 percent, while global inventories will be the second-highest since 2002. Prices will drop 15 percent to $4.94 by Dec. 31, based on the median in a Bloomberg survey of 14 analysts. “I don’t think prices will hold these higher levels,” said Pete Sorrentino, who helps manage $13.1 billion at Huntington Asset Advisors in Cincinnati and correctly predicted the 2008 crash in commodity prices. “We’re going to be getting some massive harvests, and that’s going to keep stockpiles swelling.”
  • Bin Laden Son Says U.S. May Agree to Let in Family. A son of Osama bin Laden said about 20 members of his family stranded in Iran are seeking sanctuary in a third country and that the U.S. may agree to accept them. Omar bin Laden, the al-Qaeda leader’s fourth son, said in an interview with Al Arabiya television that Iran is refusing to allow his relatives to go to Saudi Arabia. Shiite Muslim- dominated Iran is a regional rival of Sunni-ruled Saudi Arabia. Al-Qaeda, a Sunni group, is hostile to Iran. “The Americans offered to help them out of Iran and even hinted at the possibility of receiving them in the U.S.,” he said in the interview, which was aired late yesterday and posted on the Dubai-based channel’s website.
  • For-Profit Schools Gain Amid Optimism Over Government Regulation. Education Management Corp. led gains among shares of for-profit colleges amid speculation U.S. President Barack Obama's proposed industry regulations won't reduce profit as much as had been projected.
CNBC:
  • FinReg Will be 'Disastrous' for Economy: FCIC's Wallison. The Wall Street Reform bill, an overhaul of US financial rules that won final approval in the Senate on Thursday, will be “disastrous” for the US economy and will slow economic growth permanently, according to Peter Wallison, a member of the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission.
Business Insider:
Zero Hedge:
LA Times:
  • Fannie Mae to Prohibit Lenders From Changing Home Appraisals. The mortgage giant addresses complaints that home sales have been sabotaged by arbitrary reductions in appraisers' valuations. Lenders unilaterally may be lowering the numbers on the appraisals submitted to them to avoid accusations that the loans they sell to giant investors Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac are based on inflated appraisals — even slightly inflated. Such value inflations can expose lenders to "buyback" demands, forcing them to repurchase loans at huge costs. The vice chairman of the National Assn. of Realtors' Appraisal Committee, Frank K. Gregoire of St. Petersburg, Fla., says it's a widespread problem — large numbers of legitimate home sales "sabotaged by lenders and underwriters arbitrarily reducing the value estimate" provided by the appraiser. Effective Sept. 1, Fannie Mae is prohibiting lenders who sell it loans from changing appraisers' numbers. In guidance issued June 30, Fannie Mae said lenders must contact appraisers to resolve any disagreements about the valuation. If that's not possible, they should order a second appraisal — not just chop the value supporting the real estate contract. Appraisers applauded the new rule. "This is huge," said Gary Crabtree, president of Affiliated Appraisers of Bakersfield and a member of the national government relations committee of the Appraisal Institute, an industry group. Pat Turner, an appraiser in Richmond, Va., said Fannie's new requirement "is great news for consumers" because loan underwriters hundreds of miles from the property "no longer will be able to change the appraiser's valuation" simply because they pulled a lower number off a computer.
New Yorker:
  • The Volcker Rule. Volcker Disappointed in FinReg Bill. Obama’s economic adviser and his battles over the financial-reform bill.
Ag Professional:
  • World Development Movement Report Blames Commodity Derivatives for Food Crisis. In the report "The Great Hunger Lottery," the World Development Movement says it has compiled extensive evidence establishing the role of food commodity derivatives in destabilizing and driving up food prices around the world. This in turn, has led to food prices becoming unaffordable for low-income families around the world, particularly in developing countries highly reliant on food imports.
CNN:
  • U.S. Citizen Believed to be Writing for al Qaeda Website, Source Says. A senior U.S. law enforcement official has told CNN that U.S. intelligence believes the principal author of the new online al Qaeda magazine is an American citizen who left for Yemen in October 2009. The magazine -- called "Inspire" -- appeared last week. Running to nearly 70 pages online, it included articles on bomb-making and encrypting electronic messages, as well as an interview with fugitive Yemeni-American cleric Anwar al Awlaki. The source has identified the driving force behind "Inspire" as 23-year-old Samir Khan, who previously lived in North Carolina and was involved in radical Islamist blogs, including one he ran called "Jihad Recollections."
Reuters:
  • Baidu(BIDU) Promotes Fake Drug Sites: Chinese TV Station. China's main state-run television station accused the country's top Internet search engine Baidu Inc of directing users to websites that sell counterfeit drugs, the People's Daily reported on Monday. CCTV reported on Sunday that Baidu and other search engines had profited from promoting three websites offering counterfeit drugs that duped more than 3,000 people in China, said the newspaper, the mouthpiece of the ruling Communist Party.

Financial Times:
  • China's Partners Set to Reject Trade Plan. The US and China’s other big trading partners are expected to demand major improvements to Beijing’s latest proposal to join a global pact on government purchases because it does not go far enough in opening the $500bn Chinese procurement market to foreign businesses. The US and China’s other big trading partners are expected to demand major improvements to Beijing’s latest proposal to join a global pact on government purchases because it does not go far enough in opening the $500bn Chinese procurement market to foreign businesses.
The Independent:
Century Weekly:
  • China may experience an inflation crisis within two years, former Morgan Stanley economist Andy Xie wrote. China will raise its interest rates twice this year by 27 basis points each time, Xie wrote. These measures may ease inflation expectations without stabilizing inflation, Xie wrote.
National Business Daily:
  • China should raise interest rates now to counterbalance the impact from a high level of actual inflation, citing former Morgan Stanley economist Andy Xie.

Bear Radar


Style Underperformer:

  • Small-Cap Growth (-.40%)
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Gold (-3.01%) 2) Airlines (-2.09%) 3) Oil Tankers (-1.46%)
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
  • SA, PAAS, STBA, BAC, FHN, AAPL, IPGP, PETS, PRGO, AMED, UAUA, EDU, CAL and CMG
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) EK 2) TLAB 3) TXT 4) RVBD 5) LEAP
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) RIG 2) IDC 3) BIDU 4) PEP 5) MF

Bull Radar


Style Outperformer:

  • Large-Cap Growth (+.26%)
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Education (+4.50%) 2) Wireless (+1.27%) 3) Oil Service (+1.15%)
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • CHU, HAL, SII, ATAC, COCO, EDMC, STRA, APOL, CECO, HAYN, CPLA, LINC, LOPE, TKS, ESI, KWK and UTI
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) GFI 2) TSM 3) APOL 4) CECO 5) HAL
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) BA 2) HAL 3) UTX 4) AAPL 5) DAL

Monday Watch


Weekend Headlines

Bloomberg:
  • U.S. Says 'Not at All Clear' Speeding Up Dealer Closings Needed. A U.S. review of the Obama adminstration’s order to accelerate closing of General Motors Co. and Chrysler Group LLC car delalerships concluded it’s “not at all clear” the action was necessary for the carmakers. “It is not at all clear that the greatly accelerated pace of the dealership closings during one of the most severe economic downtowns in our nation’s history was either necessary for the sake of the companies’ economic survival or prudent for the sake of the nation’s economic recovery,” the Treasury’s inspector general for the U.S. financial bailout said today in a report. “Treasury made a series of decisions that may have substantially contributed to the accelerated shuttering of thousands of small businesses and thereby potentially adding tens of thousands of workers to the already lengthy unemployment rolls -- all based on a theory and without sufficient consideration of the decisions’ broader economic impact,” the report said.
  • BP(BP) May Keep Macondo Oil Well Shut Until Final Kill. BP Plc’s use of a tight-fitting cap to shut off oil flowing from its Gulf of Mexico Macondo well may be the solution the company has sought since the undersea gusher was triggered by an explosion three months ago. “We are pleased that no oil is currently being released into the Gulf of Mexico and want to take all appropriate action to keep it that way,” National Incident Commander Thad Allen said in a statement today. Three days of tests on the capped gusher have so far shown no problems that would prompt BP to reopen the well, Doug Suttles, chief operating officer for exploration and production for BP, said today in a conference call from Houston.
  • BP's(BP) Prudhoe Bay Sale Talks to Apache(APA) Said to Stall on Price, Liabilities. BP Plc’s talks to sell half its stake in Alaska’s Prudhoe Bay oil field to Apache Corp. stalled twice over the weekend, raising doubts about whether the deal will be completed, said a person with knowledge of the matter. Talks between BP and Apache faltered late in the evening on July 16 before resuming Saturday. They hit a snag again early yesterday over issues ranging from the valuation of the deal to how current and future legal liabilities will be addressed, the person said.
  • Apple(AAPL) Sets Up Cots for Engineers Working 'Butts Off' on iPhone Antenna Fix. At Apple Inc., “working our butts off” means cots in the engineering department and cars in the parking lot at all hours of the night.
Wall Street Journal:
  • U.S. Treasury Devises Plan for Boards of Weak Banks. The Treasury Department is working on a system for appointing board members to government-supported banks that have fallen behind on dividend payments to taxpayers, as more banks are running into such problems. The banks whose boards are in play are participants in the Troubled Asset Relief Program, the federal government program established in 2008 to help financial and other firms during the financial crisis. Under TARP terms, banks receiving taxpayer loans must pay quarterly dividends to the Treasury; if a bank misses six payments, the Treasury may appoint two members to its board.
  • A Climate Absolution? The alarmists still won't separate science from politics.The latest study purporting to absolve the scientists involved in November's Climategate scandal was published this month. On predictable cue, we received a letter from our admirers at the United Nations Foundation and the Natural Resources Defense Council urging us to "set the record straight" on "these bogus scandals." Having devoted considerable space to Climategate, we're happy to do that, though not perhaps as our admirers would want.
  • Deutsche CEO: West's Levies on Banks May Lift Asia's Role. Asia's already rising importance as a profit center for financial services could gain more momentum as governments in the U.S. and Europe levy new taxes on global banking profits, according to Deutsche Bank AG Chief Executive Josef Ackermann. "The relative importance of Asia will even increase" as a result of regulatory moves against banks in the West, Dr. Ackermann said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal. "Asian countries would be well advised not to copy levies which are so popular in many other parts of the world."
  • Small Bank in Germany Tied to Iran Nuclear Effort. As the international sanctions noose tightens around Iran's nuclear program, Tehran is increasingly relying on a small, Iranian-owned bank in Germany to conduct business on behalf of the regime's blacklisted companies, Western officials say.
  • Rig's Final Hours Probed. Spill Investigators Focus on 20 'Anomalies' Aboard Doomed Deepwater Horizon.
  • GOP Sees Path to Control of Senate. Democrats for the first time are acknowledging that Republicans could retake the Senate this November if everything falls into place for the GOP, less than two years after Democrats held a daunting 60-seat majority. Leaders of both parties have believed for months that Republicans could win the House, where every lawmaker faces re-election. But a change of party control in the Senate, where only a third of the members are running and Republicans must capture 10 seats, seemed out of the question. That's no longer the case.
Bloomberg Businessweek:
  • Hedge Funds Raise Bull Oil Bets Most Since 2007: Energy Markets. Hedge funds and other large speculators raised bets that oil would gain by the most in more than three years just as it began to slide, the second straight week money managers lined up on the wrong side of the market. So-called net long positions on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 67 percent the week ended July 13, the most since February 2007, according to the weekly Commitments of Traders report from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Oil fell on four out of five days on the Nymex last week, ending down 0.1 percent at $76.01 a barrel as of July 16.
  • CFOs Pick Dollar Bonds as Faith in Euro Wanes: Credit Markets. European borrowers are selling more of their bonds in dollars than at any time since the euro’s record low in 2000 as issuers lose faith in the common currency. Companies in Western Europe sold $162.8 billion of bonds in dollars this year, 24 percent of their total issuance and up from 16 percent in 2009, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Euro-denominated sales fell to 63 percent from 68 percent, the lowest share since 2007 and below the average of the past decade.
  • Dubai Developers Face Refinancing Risk, Fitch Says. Dubai’s property companies may face significant refinancing risks as the emirate’s real estate market will likely remain under pressure until at least 2012- 2013, Fitch Ratings said. The property industry “is likely to see a period of stagnant growth at best and a double-dip contraction at worst,” Bashar al-Natoor, director at Fitch’s Europe Middle East Africa corporates team wrote in a note e-mailed today. Property prices in Dubai fell by 55 percent since mid-2008 mainly because of the financial crisis, prompting some foreign homeowners to stop paying off mortgages and leave the country. Some analysts expect property prices to dip another 20 percent to 40 percent.
  • Euro's Gain Hurts Exports as Spain Sweats Major Rally. The euro’s biggest rally in a year is threatening exporters in Europe’s weakest economies as they grow more reliant on international sales for growth. The 8.5 percent gain to $1.2890 from a four-year low on June 7 reduced speculation that the region’s debt crisis would break up the single currency. At the same time, the head of Spain’s Exporters Club says the stronger euro will make it harder to counter a “paralyzed” domestic market.
  • IMF to Seek $250 Billion Boost in Its Lending Resources at G-20. The International Monetary Fund is seeking a boost in its lending resources to $1 trillion, from the current $750 billion, at a Group of 20 summit in South Korea in November, according to a Korean government official.
CNBC:
  • IMF and EU Suspend Talks With Hungary. The IMF and EU suspended on Saturday a review of Hungary's funding program, set up in 2008 to save the country from financial meltdown, saying it must take tough action to meet targets for cutting its budget deficit.
  • Banks Seek to Keep Profits as New Oversight Rules Loom. In ways large and small, the broad overhaul of the nation’s financial regulatory system that was approved by Congress on Thursday will eat into the profits of the nation’s banks. So after spending many millions of dollars to lobby against the legislation, bankers are now turning to Plan B: Adapting to the rules and turning them to their advantage.
NY Times:
CNNMoney:
  • John Paulson Puts His Legend to the Test. It's tough to be the king. John Paulson, current monarch of hedge funds, is having a challenging year, according to recent press reports. Bloomberg News recently reported that Paulson's $9 billion Advantage fund was down 5.8% in the first six months of the year. His Advantage Plus fund was down 8.8%. And while his Recovery fund was reportedly up through June, it suffered a 12.4% decline that month. The lone bright spot: his gold fund, up 13% for the year.
Business Insider:
Zero Hedge:
  • John Taylor Says The Euro Is Like a "Headless Chicken", States Prop Trading Makes Up 80% of Goldman's(GS) Revenue. John Taylor is his usual painfully forthright, objective and candid self in this must read Capital.de interview in which he analyzes the prospects before Europe (not good), and compares the Euro to a "chicken, with a severed head running across the yard before it dies." Taylor believes that so long as Europe continues to exist in its make believe monetary never-never land, any efforts to bring some form of fiscal rationality in the form of austerity, will be undermined by the continuing lies on the monetary and financial stability fronts.
Washington Post:
  • Timothy Geithner's Realm Grows With Passage of Financial Regulatory Reform. Half a year after some predicted he would be booted from the Obama administration, Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner stands to inherit vast power to shape bank regulations, oversee financial markets and create a consumer protection agency. Few Treasury secretaries have had such sweeping influence over such a wide realm as Geithner will wield once President Obama signs the new financial overhaul legislation passed this week by Congress. The effort to dramatically expand financial regulation bears the stamp of no one more than Geithner. The bill not only hews closely to the initial draft he released last summer but also anoints him -- as long as he remains Treasury secretary -- as the chief of a new council of senior regulators. The legislation also puts him at the head of the new consumer bureau until a director is confirmed by the Senate, allowing Geithner to mold the watchdog in coming months. And it will be up to him to settle a raft of issues left unresolved by the bill -- for instance, which financial derivatives will be subject to the tough new trading rules and which risky activities big banks will be required to spin off.
LA Times:
Rasmussen Reports:
  • Daily Presidential Tracking Poll. The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows that 27% of the nation's voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as president. Forty-three percent (43%) Strongly Disapprove, giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -16 (see trends).
Politico:
  • GOP Senators: Obama Failing in Oil Clean-Up. Just days after BP temporarily plugged the massive oil leak in the Gulf of Mexico, Senate Republicans on Sunday lashed out at the Obama administration for failing to clean up America's soiled shoreline. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) told CNN's "State of the Union" that the administration was suffering from incompetence.
Reuters:
Telegraph:
  • Goldman Sachs(GS) Sets Aside $9 Billion for Pay as Revenues Drop. Goldman Sachs is set to pay as much as 45pc of its 2010 revenues to its staff in a move that is likely to reignite political anger with the investment bank just days after it settled a high-profile fraud case with American regulators. Analysts expect Goldman to say that its closely-watched compensation ratio, which indicates the intended level of staff pay as a proportion of its revenues, is between 40pc and 45pc when it announces its second quarter results this week. Goldman's results will also show for the first time a $600m (£392m) hit for the UK's bonus tax. The bank is estimated to have set aside just over $9bn in pay for its staff in the first half of 2010, working out at an average payout of $235,429 for each of its 38,500 employees for the last six months of work. Goldman bankers are on track to be paid nearly $500,000 each at full year, with senior bankers being paid far more. Although compensation is not paid out until the end of the year, the plans angered investors and politicians. Goldman admitted in a regulatory filing that several investors had demanded an investigation into "alleged excessive compensation" from top earning bankers. The Thompson-Reuters consensus of analysts estimates show an expectation of revenues of $9.1bn for quarter and earnings per share to be $1.98. Consensus estimates had been far higher at around $2.27 per share.
  • Osama bin Laden's Family 'Stranded' in Iran, Son Says. Osama bin Laden's son has called on Tehran to release his family members who have been "stranded" in Iran under house arrest since 2001.
  • Markets Braced for Turmoil After IMF and EU Withdraw £17bn Hungary Financing Deal. European equity and credit markets are braced for a volatile day of trading after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the European Union dramatically withdrew a €20bn (£17bn) financing deal for Hungary over the weekend.
The Guardian:
MailOnline:
  • BP bosses meet to decide huge sell-off: £9.5bn of assets could help pay bill for Gulf oil disaster. The embattled board of BP will meet this week to decide the first in a series of massive sell-offs to help pay for the expected £45 billion bill for the oil giant's Gulf of Mexico spill. Thursday's board meeting is expected to approve the sale of assets in Argentina, where it owns 60 per cent of oil company Pan American Energy, a stake worth about £3.5 billion, and oil and gas fields in Vietnam, Colombia and Venezuela with an estimated value of £1 billion. Also likely to be approved for sale will be assets in Alaska's Prudhoe Bay, worth a further £5 billion.
Welt am Sonntag:
  • German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said he's still working on "tougher, stricter and more efficient" European Union deficit rules and plans to present proposals to the European Council by the end of October, citing an interview. Germany needs to "do everything possible" to avoid questions about exiting the euro, Schaeuble said.
  • Kenneth Fisher, the billionaire who oversees about $35 billion as head of Fisher Investments Inc., predicts that the S&P 500 and Germany's DAX will be "significantly higher" by the end of next year, he said in an interview.
Welt am Sonntag:
  • Boeing Co.(BA) CEO Jim McNerney said the company is seeking to deliver the first 787 Dreamliner airplane by the end of this year as planned, citing the CEO in an interview.
ShanghaiDaily.com:
  • Fewer Buyers Cause Fall in Chinese Car Plate Prices. CAR plate prices in Shanghai dropped for a second consecutive month as the number of bidders fell sharply. The average price for a private car license was down 1,018 yuan (US$150) to 39,362 yuan for July from a month earlier, said Shanghai International Commodity Auction Co. The lowest bid also dropped to 38,400 yuan this month, a decrease of 800 yuan from last month's 39,200 yuan. The government offered 9,000 car plates for auction this month, 200 fewer than in June. This month's auction attracted 13,389 bidders, which was 2,863, or 18 percent, fewer than a month earlier. Before the auction, market observers expected that prices would fall as a slowdown in auto sales had dampened the market demand for car plates. "Auto sales have been quiet recently as it is the non prime sales season with negative impact from a tight control on the property market and sluggish stock market," he said. "But the notable decline in number of bidders was still out of our expectation." The center estimated that there were around 1.3 million vehicles being kept in stockpile, an indication that the industry overall was facing a sales stagnation.
China Daily:
  • China should impose "direct taxes" on its people, such as personal income tax and real estate tax, to help allocate more funds to low-income groups and narrow the gap between rich and poor, Jia Kang, the head of the Finance Ministry's research institute, wrote today. Jia also called on the government to make budgets more transparent to improve financial allocation.
China Business News:
  • China will not relax curbs to cool the property market, citing Jiang Weixin, Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Construction.
China Securities Journal:
  • The growth of China's exports is expected to slow down to about 16.3% in the second half on removed tax rebates, the European Union's fiscal crisis and other reasons, citing a report from the State Information Center. China's import growth is expected to fall to about 19.3% in the second half because of stabilizing commodities prices and slowing domestic investment demand, citing the report.
dzwww.com:
  • China's eastern province of Shandong faces an oversupply of oil products, citing the local petroleum and chemical association. The province received 12.2 million metric tons of oil-product supply in the first half. Fuel consumption reached 7.3 million tons during the period, according to the report. Oversupply of oil products in the province will persist in the long term, it said.
Weekend Recommendations
Barron's:
  • Made positive comments on (GOOG), (CNQR), (VFC), (SWY) and (GS).
Citigroup:
  • Reiterated Buy on (CHKP), target $40.
Night Trading
  • Asian indices are -1.0% to +.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 137.0 +11.0 basis points.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 131.5 +10.5 basis points.
  • S&P 500 futures +.13%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.11%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
  • (HAL)/.37
  • (HAS)/.24
  • (TXN)/.63
  • (IBM)/2.57
  • (TUP)/.97
  • (ZION)/-.52
  • (LNCR)/.46
  • (ATHR)/.64
  • (PKG)/.31
  • (STLD)/.24
  • (BRO)/.27
  • (DAL)/.66
  • (IDC)/.32
Economic Releases
10:00 am EST
  • The NAHB Housing Market Index for July is estimated to fall to 16 versus a reading of 17 in June.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Duke Speaking could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by commodity and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.

Friday, July 16, 2010

Market Week in Review


S&P 500 1,064.88 -1.21%*

Photobucket

The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

*5-Day Change

Weekly Scoreboard*


Indices

  • S&P 500 1,064.88 -1.21%
  • DJIA 10,097.90 -.98%
  • NASDAQ 2,179.05 -.79%
  • Russell 2000 610.39 -3.02%
  • Wilshire 5000 10,959.58 -1.40%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 474.19 -.98%
  • Russell 1000 Value 546.91 -1.56%
  • Morgan Stanley Consumer 658.98 -.45%
  • Morgan Stanley Cyclical 808.50 -1.31%
  • Morgan Stanley Technology 544.93 +.54%
  • Transports 4,119.0 -1.0%
  • Utilities 377.65 -.08%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 39.12 -1.39%
  • Lyxor L/S Equity Long Bias Index 951.82 +2.45%
  • Lyxor L/S Equity Variable Bias Index 847.27 +.75%
  • Lyxor L/S Equity Short Bias Index 854.11 -3.84%
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line +85,875 -.90%
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -129 -14
  • Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 24.0 -54.7%
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position +34,645 +32.16%
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,276,328 +.35%
  • Total Put/Call 1.10 +25.0%
  • OEX Put/Call 1.18 +81.54%
  • ISE Sentiment 66.0 -42.61%
  • NYSE Arms 5.65 +589.02%
  • Volatility(VIX) 26.25 +5.08%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 12.54 +.41%
  • Smart Money Flow Index 8,721.14 +1.59%
  • Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.816 Trillion -.5%
  • AAII % Bulls 39.37 +88.01%
  • AAII % Bears 37.80 -33.77%
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 262.22 +.61%
  • Crude Oil 76.01 -.58%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 204.85 -1.33%
  • Natural Gas 4.52 +2.08%
  • Heating Oil 201.13 -1.22%
  • Gold 1,188.20 -2.0%
  • Bloomberg Base Metals 189.40 +.13%
  • Copper 292.95 -4.54%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 323.33 USD/Ton unch.
  • China Hot Rolled Domestic Steel Sheet 3,889 Yuan/Ton -.51%
  • S&P GSCI Agriculture 332.19 +4.36%
Economy
  • ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index 120.60 unch.
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -33.50 -13.9 points
  • Fed Fund Futures imply 63.40% chance of no change, 36.60% chance of 25 basis point cut on 8/10
  • US Dollar Index 82.48 -1.74%
  • Yield Curve 233.0 -9 basis points
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.92% -13 basis points
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $2.324 Trillion +.42%
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 38.11 +4.14%
  • U.S. Municipal CDS Index 224.5 -9.11%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 133.53 -.12%
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.72% -12 basis points
  • TED Spread 38.0 unch.
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 110.61 -1.84%
  • Euro Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 125.91 +7.26%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 245.73 -.27%
  • CMBS Super Senior AAA 10-Year Treasury Spread 269.0 -14 basis points
  • M1 Money Supply $1.727 Trillion -1.09%
  • Business Loans 593.30 -1.08%
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 455,300 -2.5%
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 3.7% +30 basis points
  • Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 4.57% unch.
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 700.30 -2.94%
  • ABC Consumer Confidence -44 -2 points
  • Weekly Retail Sales +3.1% +10 basis points
  • Nationwide Gas $2.72/gallon +.01/gallon
  • U.S. Cooling Demand Next 7 Days 32.0% above normal
  • Baltic Dry Index 1,700 -12.37%
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 45.0 +5.88%
  • Rail Freight Carloads 192,954 -16.57%
  • Iraqi 2028 Government Bonds 83.56 +1.13%
Best Performing Style
  • Large-Cap Growth -.98%
Worst Performing Style
  • Small-Cap Value -3.14%
Leading Sectors
  • Networking +3.73%
  • Agriculture +2.49%
  • Wireless +2.10%
  • Education +1.58%
  • Software +1.14%
Lagging Sectors
  • Gold -3.75%
  • Construction -3.91%
  • Banks -4.72%
  • Coal -5.52%
  • Steel -6.11%
One-Week High-Volume Gainers

One-Week High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change