Bloomberg:

• Jobless Claims in U.S. Unexpectedly Climbed Last Week. More Americans than forecast filed applications for unemployment benefits last week, signaling firings stepped up as the economy slowed. Initial jobless claims rose by 2,000 to 484,000 in the week ended Aug. 7, the highest level since mid February, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. Companies may be losing confidence in the recovery and are hesitant to hire, raising the risk of further erosion in consumer spending, the biggest part of the economy. Economists forecast claims would fall to 465,000, according to the median of 42 projections in a Bloomberg News survey. The four-week moving average of claims climbed to 473,500 from 459,250, today’s report showed.
  
• Sovereign Debt Risk Surges as Slowdown May Deepen Deficit Woes. A gauge of government bond risk rose to the highest level in five weeks on concern Europe’s deficit crisis will worsen as slowing economic growth exacerbates bank bailout costs. The Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe Index of credit- default swaps on 15 governments rose for a seventh day, climbing 4 basis points to 140, according to data provider CMA. The gauge is the highest since July 7 and up from a three-month low of 109.5 on Aug. 3. Swaps on Ireland climbed to a 17-month high on speculation the $32 billion bailout bill for Anglo Irish Bank Corp. will add to the country’s fiscal deficit. The cost of the Anglo bailout may trigger a surge in Ireland’s budget deficit to 25 percent of GDP this year, before dropping to 10 percent in 2011, analysts at Dublin-based Davy Research wrote in a note today. The European Union limit for members of the euro area is 3 percent. Default swaps on Ireland climbed 15 basis points to 286, the highest since March 2009, CMA prices show. Contracts on Anglo Irish jumped 17.5 to 551.5, Allied Irish Banks Plc increased 17.5 to 441 and Irish Life & Permanent Group Holdings Plc rose 14.5 to 337. Germany may also have to absorb the holdings of two so- called bad banks, raising the nation’s debt to 90 percent of gross domestic product, Die Zeit reported. Contracts on Germany increased 3 basis points to 47, the highest since June 29. Swaps on Greece jumped 17.5 basis points to 809.5 as the wage-cuts and tax increases that aim to trim the European Union’s second-biggest budget deficit deepened a recession. Contracts on Portugal climbed 8.5 basis points to 277, Italy rose 10 to 182 and Spain was 7 higher at 221. The cost of insuring corporate debt against default also rose with the Markit iTraxx Crossover Index of swaps linked to 50 companies with mostly high-yield credit ratings increasing 16 basis points to 520, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co., the highest in three weeks. The Markit iTraxx Europe Index of 125 companies with investment-grade ratings climbed 4.25 basis points to 116.25, and the Markit iTraxx Financial Index of 25 banks and insurers rose 5.5 to 137.5, JPMorgan prices show.
• Wheat, Corn Stockpiles Dwindle After Russia's Drought. The world’s appetite for meat, flour and ethanol is expanding faster than the supply of the crops needed to produce them, eroding inventories and increasing the chance of accelerating food prices. Wheat stockpiles may slip to a two-year low as demand rises and a drought damages the crop in Russia, whose exports will plunge 84 percent, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said today. Inventories of corn, used to feed livestock and make fuel, will be little changed from a year earlier, even as output rises to a record, the USDA said.
• Crude Oil Falls a Third Day as U.S. Jobless Claims Increase. Crude oil declined for a third day after U.S. jobless claims increased, bolstering concern that economic growth will slow and fuel demand will drop. Oil decreased as much as 2.5 percent as initial jobless claims rose by 2,000 to 484,000 last week, the highest level since February. Yesterday, a government report showed that U.S. gasoline supplies climbed for a seventh week and stockpiles of distillate fuel, a category that includes heating oil and diesel, advanced to the highest level since January 1983. U.S. gasoline supplies rose 409,000 barrels to 223.4 million, according to an Energy Department report yesterday. The gain left stockpiles 8.6 percent higher than the five-year average for the week. Inventories of distillate fuel climbed 3.46 million barrels to 173.1 million, 27 percent higher than the five-year average. Crude oil supplies declined 2.99 million barrels to 355 million in the week ended Aug. 6, the report showed. Stockpiles were 8.1 percent higher than the five-year average for the period, the department said. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will reduce shipments this month as refineries close for maintenance, according to tanker-tracker Oil Movements. “There is a developing argument that Eastern demand isn’t particularly strong,” Roy Mason, Oil Movements founder, said today by phone from Halifax, England.
• Shanghai's July New Mortgage Loans Slump 98% on Curbs. Shanghai’s new mortgage loans plunged 98 percent in July from a year earlier as a government crackdown on property speculation deterred investors from buying homes in China’s richest city. Loans dropped by 11.4 billion yuan ($1.68 billion) to 270 million yuan, the lowest in at least a year, the Shanghai branch of the People’s Bank of China said in an e-mailed statement today. The amount was 91 percent lower than the previous month. Real estate prices stalled nationwide in July and transaction volumes slumped 29 percent from a month earlier, a government survey showed on Aug. 10. New home sales in Shanghai fell 11 percent in the week ended Aug. 8 from the previous seven days to 137,000 square meters, according to property consultant Shanghai UWin Real Estate Information Services Co. Choi sees home prices declining a further 20 percent by the end of the year as China maintains its tightening measures on the property market.
• Market Fragmentation Shows High-Frequency Hazard. The May 6 crash shows how the fragmentation of U.S. stock trading across 50 venues dominated by computerized traders is hurting investors, executives from Invesco Ltd. and TD Ameritrade Holding Corp. said.
• GM's Whitacre Says Akerson Will Take Over as CEO. General Motors Co. Chief Executive Officer Ed Whitacre, who led the largest U.S. automaker from bankruptcy to two straight profitable quarters, will step down as CEO on Sept. 1 and be replaced by director Dan Akerson. Akerson, 61, also will take over the 68-year-old Whitacre’s role as chairman at the end of the year, Detroit-based GM said today.

Wall Street Journal:

• Food Makers Chew Over Prices. Nestlé SA has joined a growing list of global food makers warning about higher prices for key commodities like tea and cocoa, which could pinch margins and ripple through the grocery store in the remainder of the year.
• Blagojevich Jurors Agree on Just Two Counts. Jurors in the corruption trial of former Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich and his brother have reached agreement on just two of the 28 combined counts against the pair after 12 days of deliberation.
• Economists Want Policy Makers to Back Off. Economists are getting more pessimistic about the strength of the recovery, but they don't think policy makers should do anything more to support it, according to the latest Wall Street Journal forecasting survey.
• The Blame Bush Strategy Won't Work.
  

CNBC:

• Bank Repossessions Drive Up US Foreclosures. More Americans fell into foreclosure in July as a sour job market kept them from making payments, and banks took over homes at a near record pace.

NY Times:

• Debts Rise, and Go Unpaid, as Bust Erodes Home Equity. During the great housing boom, homeowners nationwide borrowed a trillion dollars from banks, using the soaring value of their houses as security. Now the money has been spent and struggling borrowers are unable or unwilling to pay it back. The delinquency rate on home equity loans is higher than all other types of consumer loans, including auto loans, boat loans, personal loans and even bank cards like Visa and MasterCard, according to the American Bankers Association. Lenders say they are trying to recover some of that money but their success has been limited, in part because so many borrowers threaten bankruptcy and because the value of the homes, the collateral backing the loans, has often disappeared. The result is one of the paradoxes of the recession: the more money you borrowed, the less likely you will have to pay up.
• Chinese Hospitals Are Battlegrounds of Discontent. Forget the calls by many Chinese patients for more honest, better-qualified doctors. What this city’s 27 public hospitals really needed, officials decided last month, was police officers. And not just at the entrance, but as deputy administrators. The goal: to keep disgruntled patients and their relatives from attacking the doctors.

Business Insider:

• Government Bails Out Bank CEO After He Expenses Mansion, Jaguar, And Porsche. Inside the Maxine Waters' ethics trial case comes the story of the government bailing out a corrupt Boston bank that Waters' husband owned stock in and sat on the board of. When Kevin Cohee, the CEO and Chairman of OneUnited, asked the government to loan the bank $50 million in TARP funds, it was discovered that Cohee had expensed quite a lifestyle to the bank's account.

Zero Hedge:

• 14th Sequential Week of Equity Outflows. We have now had over a quarter of non-stop redemptions by mutual funds, which of course means, by end-retail investors.

Forbes:

• Environmental Groups Call for Drilling Ban in Michigan Constitution.
• Wall Street Plays Uncle Same Like a Fiddle In Matters of Finance. Congress does the bidding of some of its biggest patrons, the titans of Wall Street. Don't expect real reform.

Washington Post:

• SEC Enforcement Division Granted Permanent Subpoena Powers. The Securities and Exchange Commission on Wednesday quietly made permanent a vast expansion of the power of its enforcement division's ability to subpoena documents and compel testimony. The move should ensure that investigators can move swiftly to pursue cases of financial wrongdoing. But some securities lawyers warn that it could lead to excessive costs as well as unfair treatment for the executives and companies that are targets of SEC probes.

AppleInsider:

• iPhone 4 Remains Sold Out at Half of Apple's(AAPL) US Retail Stores. The iPhone 4 remains in limited stock at Apple's U.S. retail stores seven weeks after its launch, suggesting that "antennagate" has done little to slow sales.

Rasmussen Reports:

• Daily Presidential Tracking Poll. The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows that 25% of the nation's voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as president. Forty-five percent (45%) Strongly Disapprove, giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -20 (see trends).

Reuters:

• Russia may not have grain available for export after a ban on outbound shipments ends Dec. 31, citing data from the Agriculture Ministry.
• ICE(ICE) Cuts Staff at Chicago Climate Exchange -Sources. Market operator Intercontinental Exchange Inc. (ICE) is laying off staff at newly acquired U.S. environmental bourse the Chicago Climate Exchange (CCX), industry sources told Reuters, citing a lack of U.S. action on climate change. They said the first round of layoffs began on July 23 and, although the total number of jobs to be cut was unknown, one said around 25 employees, or roughly half CCX's headcount at the time of ICE's acquisition, had already been or were being let go.
• Mortgage Rates Hit Fresh Lows on Soft U.S. Economy. Home loan rates set new lows in the latest week on more evidence of a soft U.S. economy and high unemployment, home funding company Freddie Mac said on Thursday. The average 30-year mortgage rate fell to 4.44 percent in the week ended Aug. 12, the lowest since Freddie Mac records began in 1971. The prior record low was 4.49 percent a week ago, which was well below 5.29 percent a year ago.

Telegraph:

• 'Flash Crash' Curbs Under Discussion by US Regulators. The so-called "flash crash" that saw the Dow Jones index plunge almost 1,000-points in 45 minutes could see US regulators restrict the range shares can move in a single day.

Xinhua:

• China Mobile Ltd. and the Xinhua News Agency signed a framework agreement today to establish a search engine joint venture.

Beijing Times:

• BYD Co. sales fell 6.5% to 33,046 vehicles in July from June, citing a person from the company. Sales in July rose 4% year-on-year, the report said.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth (-1.22%)

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Disk Drives -4.26% 2) Networking -3.79% 3) Computer Hardware -3.26%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• CSCO, JNPR, VIP, KSS, CAVM, NETL, FFIV, NTAP, FNSR, PLCM, OCLR, JDSU, XLNX, ALTR and BRCM
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) SPWRA 2) CSCO 3) FNSR 4) VMED 5) IP
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) JBLU 2) WEN 3) RIMM 4) PBR 5) WWE
  

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value (-.22%)

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gold +2.12% 2) Coal +1.30% 3) Airlines +1.06%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• AAP, BVN, PRGO, ALXN, BKS, IAG, CHL, COLB, CAGC, SOLF, MERU, RDEN, AVGO, NFLX, ATPG, EAT, NJ and THI
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) TSM 2) M 3) SCHW 4) CSCO 5) OVTI
  

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) THI 2) KSS 3) AAPL 4) GOOG 5) BA
  

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:

• Spanish Crisis Threatens Second Front as Catalonia Rates Rise. Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero may face a second front in his battle to contain Spain’s fiscal crisis as borrowing costs for the country’s regional governments climb. Catalonia, which accounts for a fifth of Spanish gross domestic product, has been shut out of public bond markets since March and the extra yield it pays over national government debt has almost tripled this year. Galicia, in the northwest, has asked to freeze payments of debt it owes the central government and the Madrid region postponed a bond sale last month. Spain’s regions, which borrowed at similar rates to the central government before the global credit crisis started in 2007, are key players in Zapatero’s drive to get his budget in order and push down the country’s borrowing costs. They control around twice as much spending as the state, employ more than half of all public workers and piled on debt during the recession. “If investors focused more on the problems in the regions, they would be less optimistic on Spain’s central government debt, and see that the rally in July was a bit overdone,” said Olaf Penninga, who helps manage 140 billion euros ($182 billion) at Rotterdam-based Robeco Group, and sold Spanish bonds last year. “If the central government has to help the regions it would aggravate an already bad situation.”
• Fed Embraces Japan-Style Tools With Floor on Securities. The Federal Reserve’s decision to sustain the current level of its assets intensifies the focus of the central bank on policy tools similar to those used with little impact by Japan last decade.
• Cisco(CSCO) Sales Miss Estimates on Sluggish Corporate Spending. Cisco Systems Inc., the largest maker of networking equipment, forecast sales this quarter that missed analysts’ estimates as companies rein in spending because of the sluggish economy. The stock dropped 7.9 percent.
• Crude Falls a Third Day on Signals Growth will Slow, Rise in Stockpiles. Oil fell for a third day in New York as U.S. fuel stockpiles rose more than forecast, adding to signs of slowing economic growth in the world’s biggest crude consumer. Oil has slumped 5.1 percent in the past three days after the Energy Department said gasoline supplies climbed, reaching the highest level for the weekly reporting period in at least 10 years. Distillate stockpiles increased to the highest since January 1983. “The U.S. inventory report was bearish, showing that there wasn’t much of a summer driving season again,” said Victor Shum, a senior principal at consultants Purvin & Gertz Inc. in Singapore. “Global economic concerns are becoming the top of mind issue so we’ve seen equities pull back. China is showing signs of weakness in growth.” Crude oil for September delivery dropped as much as 90 cents, or 1.2 percent, to $77.12 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
• U.S. Dollar May Rise by Year-End Like Euro After Crisis, Mizuho Trust Says. The dollar may rise above 90 yen by year-end as its 8.5 percent drop this year boosts U.S. exports and eases concerns about economic growth, much like the euro’s rebound from the debt crisis, said Mizuho Trust & Banking Co. The dollar may rise above 90 yen by year-end as its 8.5 percent drop this year boosts U.S. exports and eases concerns about economic growth, much like the euro’s rebound from the debt crisis, said Mizuho Trust & Banking Co.
• China's Yuan Slides Most in Seven Weeks on Slowdown Signs, Dollar Advance. The yuan dropped the most in seven weeks as concern the global economic recovery is faltering drove the dollar higher and fueled speculation Chinese policy makers will restrict gains to protect exports.
• Nikkei 225 Enters Bear Market as Yen Strengthens on Concerns Over Recovery. Japanese stocks fell, dragging the Nikkei 225 Stock Average into a bear market, as the yen trading near a 15-year high against the dollar threatened to dent export earnings.
• Foreclosure Crisis Spreads Across U.S. as Defaults Jump in Idaho, Illinois. Home foreclosures are climbing in the Northwest and Midwest, areas that had earlier dodged the worst of the mortgage crisis, according to real estate data firm RealtyTrac Inc. With 14.6 million Americans out of work and consumer spending declining, further weakness in housing could push the economy back into recession, former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said Aug. 1. Foreclosure rates in Utah, Idaho, Illinois and Colorado rose in the second quarter compared with a year earlier, and rank among the 10 highest in the country. The number of homes seized by lenders at least doubled in 19 states and more than tripled in seven of them, according to Irvine, California-based RealtyTrac.

Wall Street Journal:

• Climate-Change Fight Shifting to Western US Coal Mines. Western U.S. coal producers are increasingly coming under fire by environmental groups that see a chance to fight climate change by curbing output from the nation's largest coal basin. For years environmentalists have lobbied for tougher limits on the emissions of heat-trapping gases blamed for climate change from power plants, vehicles and other direct sources. But the collapse of federal climate-change legislation in recent weeks and growth of coal exports to Asia is leading some groups to look past the smoke stacks and aim to quash emissions by stymieing production of fuel.
• Grim Voter Mood Turns Grimmer. Americans are growing more pessimistic about the economy and the war in Afghanistan, and are losing faith that Democrats have better solutions than Republicans, according to a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll.
• Investors Reload The Guns On Euro. Hedge funds surprised by the euro's recent advance once again are turning bearish on the common currency, which tumbled Wednesday against the dollar. For much of the year, the hot trade on Wall Street was wagering against the euro and the debt of various European countries. When bonds issued by Greece, Italy, Spain and other nations fell in price amid pangs of worry in the spring, some funds posted huge profits. In recent weeks, however, as economic prospects in the bloc of nations that use the euro appeared to improve, and Greece and other nations pursued austerity measures, the euro staged a startling rally. The turnaround hurt hedge funds clinging to bearish positions and prompted others to trim their trades. "You can't be dogmatic, you have to be respectful of the market," said William Allen, a New Jersey hedge-fund manager who cut bearish euro positions to limit losses. Now, he said, it is time to bet against the euro again. He isn't alone in the view.
• Illegal Immigrants Estimated to Account for 1 in 12 U.S. Births.
• Washington vs. Paul Ryan. What happens when a politician is more honest than his critics.

CNBC:

• Most Americans Favor Keeping All Bush Tax Cuts for Now. Most Americans would go along with temporarily extending the Bush tax cuts for all taxpayers, including the wealthy, until the economy recovers, a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal survey has found. That finding represents encouraging news for Republicans as they prepare for a fall battle over tax cuts in advance of mid-term elections.
• Hedge Funds Looking for 5-10% Correction, Says Scaramucci.
  

IBD:

• Its Network Technology Feeds A Digital World Hungry For Speed. Riverbed Technology (RVBD) understands.

Business Insider:

• The Return of Irish Debt Fears Throws Big Wrench into The Austerity Debate.

CNNMoney:

• China Needs 'U-Turn' to Avoid Crash Landing.

engadget:

• Exclusive: Upcoming Apple(AAPL) TV Loses 1080p Playback, Gains Apps...And Will Be Renamed iTV.

Wenweipo:

• China National Petroleum Corp., the country's state oil company, has banned the word "monopoly" from all its public statements and communications. CNPC, as the company is called, has a vocabulary list with as many as 100 words that must only be used with caution "to accurately direct public opinion," citing a list circulating the internet.

Economic Times:

• India May Ban Key BlackBerry Services. India may temporarily ban messenger and enterprise e-mail services offered on BlackBerry phones should the device maker Research In Motion(RIMM) and mobile phone service providers fail to address concerns raised by security agencies, citing an official.

Evening Recommendations
Citigroup:

• Upgraded (EBAY) to Buy, target $28.

Wells Fargo:

• Rated (AAPL), (GOOG), (IBM) and (NTAP) Outperform.

Night Trading

• Asian equity indices are -1.25% to -.75% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 126.0 +7.0 basis points.
  
• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 118.0 +4.25 basis points.
  
• S&P 500 futures -.24%.
  
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.49%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (EAT)/.46
• (EL)/.29
• (KSS)/.81
• (WEN)/.05
• (JWN)/.66
• (NVDA)/.11
• (BYI)/.56
• (ADSK)/.27
• (DV)/.81

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST

• The Import Price Index for July is estimated to rise +.3% versus a -1.3% decline in June.
• Initial Jobless Claims are estimated to fall to 465K versus 479K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 4535K versus 4537K prior.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Duke speaking, the $16 Billion 30-Year Treasury Bond Auction, Goldman Sachs Utility Conference, Jefferies Industrial Conference and the BofA Specialty Pharma Conference could also impact trading today.
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Falling into Final Hour on Rising Economic Fear, Increasing Sovereign Debt Angst, More Financial Sector Pessimism, Technical Selling

Broad Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  
• Sector Performance: Every Sector Declining
  
• Volume: Slightly Above Average
  
• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• VIX 25.31 +13.14%
  
• ISE Sentiment Index 126.0 +35.48%
  
• Total Put/Call 1.05 +3.96%
  
• NYSE Arms 5.12 +267.97%
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 108.51 bps +3.10%
  
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 116.69 bps +8.14%
  
• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 134.50 bps +7.0%
  
• Emerging Market CDS Index 218.04 bps +3.31%
  
• 2-Year Swap Spread 17.0 -2 bps
  
• TED Spread 24.0 -2 bps
  

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .14% unch.
  
• Yield Curve 218.0 -6 bps
  
• China Import Iron Ore Spot $147.60/Metric Tonne +1.72%
  
• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -55.0 -22.0 points
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.75% -6 bps
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating -140 open in Japan
• DAX Futures: Indicating +5 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Lower: On losses in my Medical, Biotech and Technology long positions
  
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQQ) hedges, added to my (EEM) short
  
• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

BOTTOM LINE: Today's overall market action is very bearish as the S&P 500 is trading near session lows as it breaks convincingly back below its 200-day moving average. On the positive side, Tobacco, Food, Education and Telecom stocks are holding up relatively well, falling less than -1.5%. The ongoing trend lower in the 2-Yr Swap, Libor-OIS and TED spreads is a positive. On the negative side, Airline, Road & Rail, Construction, Bank, Networking, Steel, Oil Tanker, Alt Energy, Coal and Defense shares are especially weak, falling 4.0%+. Cyclical and Small-cap shares are underperforming again. (XLF) has been very heavy throughout the day. European bank stocks are under significant pressure again. The Euro Financial Sector CDS Index has risen substantially in the last two days and the Western European Sovereign CDS Index is now following suit. The Portugal sovereign cds is jumping +7.4% to 265.70 bps, the UK sovereign cds is rising +9.5% to 65.84 bps and the Greece sovereign cds is rising +4.9% to 829.0 bps. The euro currency has likely put in another meaningful top. The latest US scrap steel index quote is showing a decline of -11.13%, which puts it below its 200-day moving average for the first time since June 2009. The 10-year yield is falling another -7 bps to 2.69%, which is also a big negative. The market's reaction to Cisco's earnings report after the close today is key given recent tech sector concerns. I am not ruling out the possibility that another meaningful move lower in stocks has begun. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-lower into the close from current levels on more shorting, technical selling, profit-taking, rising sovereign debt angst, increasing financial sector pessimism and China worries.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Economists Cut U.S. Growth Forecasts, Hiring Limited. A lack of jobs will shackle consumer spending and restrain the U.S. recovery more than previously estimated, according to economists polled by Bloomberg News. Gross domestic product will expand at an average 2.55 percent annual rate in the last six months of 2010, according to the median of 67 estimates in a survey taken July 31 to Aug. 9, down from the 2.8 percent pace projected last month. Household purchases will climb at a 2.25 percent rate, compared with a 2.6 percent gain previously forecast. “Simply put, job growth in the private sector hasn’t improved as we would’ve expected,” said John Silvia, chief economist at Wells Fargo Securities LLC in Charlotte, North Carolina. “The consumer continues to contribute to growth but at a subpar pace.” Consumer spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of the economy will grow 1.5 percent this year, down from a 2.4 percent gain forecast a month ago, according to the survey median estimate. In addition to the lowered expectations for the second half of 2010, the downgrade also reflects the annual GDP revisions issued by the Commerce Department last month. Purchases, which rose 3 percent on average over the past three decades, dropped 1.2 percent last year, the biggest decrease since 1942. Joblessness will be slow to fall, signaling it will take years for the economy to recover the more than 8 million jobs lost during the recession that began in December 2007. Unemployment will average 9.6 percent in 2010 and 9.1 percent next year, according to the survey. “Unemployment is high, income growth has been pretty slow,” said Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in New York, who lowered estimates for growth and spending. “Household wealth is a lot lower than it was three years ago.” Job creation, the sluggish recovery and the growing budget deficit are likely to be top issues in November elections that will decide control of Congress.
• Default Swaps Climb to Two-Week High on U.S. Recovery Concern. The cost of protecting European corporate bonds from default rose to the highest in more than two weeks after the Federal Reserve said it would buy more Treasuries to support a weakening economic recovery. Credit-default swaps on the Markit iTraxx Crossover Index of 50 companies with mostly high-yield credit ratings climbed 13 basis points to 495.25, according to Markit Group Ltd. at 2:22 p.m. in London. That’s the highest level since the European Union released results of bank stress tests on July 23. The Markit iTraxx Europe index of 125 companies with investment-grade ratings increased 4 basis points to 119.75, Markit prices show. The cost of hedging against losses on Treasuries rose for a seventh day, with credit-default swaps linked to U.S. government debt rising 2.5 basis points to 46.5, according to data provider CMA. The contracts have risen from 36.2 on Aug. 2 and are at the highest in two months.
• HUD Offers Interest-Free Loans for Borrowers Facing Foreclosure. The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development will offer $1 billion in zero-interest, short- term loans to help unemployed homeowners avoid foreclosure. The loans will provide as much as $50,000 for borrowers to make payments on mortgages, taxes and insurance for as long as two years, HUD said today in a news release. The loan program will be available to borrowers at risk of foreclosure who have experienced a “substantial reduction” in income because of involuntary unemployment, underemployment or a medical condition, HUD said in the release. The U.S. Treasury Department said it will offer as much as $2 billion in aid to 17 states and the District of Columbia to help homeowners in areas hardest-hit by unemployment and foreclosures.
• U.S. Trade Deficit Unexpectedly Widens to $49.9 Billion. The trade deficit in the U.S. unexpectedly widened in June to the highest level since October 2008 as consumer goods imports rose to a record and exports declined. The gap grew 19 percent to $49.9 billion in June, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. A $42.1 billion deficit was projected by economists, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey. Imports climbed 3 percent, while exports dropped 1.3 percent, the most since April 2009. The figures signal trade subtracted more from second-quarter gross domestic product than previously estimated. Economists at UBS Securities in New York said the Commerce Department, in estimating growth from April through June at a 2.4 percent annual rate, assumed a $3.2 billion widening of the adjusted trade deficit in June. Exports minus imports subtracted 2.8 percentage points from growth during the three months, the most since 1982, the Commerce Department said July 30. Exports from the U.S. decreased to $150.5 billion from $152.4 billion, reflecting fewer shipments abroad of semiconductors, computers and steelmaking materials. Imports increased in June to $200.3 billion from $194.4 billion, led by telecommunications equipment, automobiles and consumer goods such as pharmaceutical preparations, televisions and furniture.
• Green Mountain(GMCR) Call Trades Surge After Lavazza Purchases Stake.
  

Wall Street Journal:

• German Debt Ratio May Rise to 90% of GDP on Bank Bailout - Report. The bailout of Germany's banking sector may swell the country's public debt rate to 90% of gross domestic product, Die Zeit weekly newspaper reports Wednesday. The weekly based this estimate on a recent decision by Eurostat requiring Germany to include the balance sheets of public-owned bad banks--set up to help financial institutions offload toxic and non-strategic assets--into its overall debt ratio. In July, it forecast Germany's debt level will rise from 73.1% in 2009 to 79% of GDP in 2010, 80% in 2011, to 80.5% respectively in 2012 and 2013 before easing to 80% in 2014. Die Zeit said that if nationalized mortgage lender Hypo Real Estate is added to the equation, Germany's debt level could widen to 90%. A debt ratio of 90% of GDP would be much higher than the 60% threshold set under the European Union's Maastricht Treaty.
• Health Care Continues to Wound Democrats. With less than three months before the November elections, the preponderance of the evidence is that the health care bill remains a political problem for Democratic candidates. In the “zero-sum” world of politics, Republicans see the issue as a plus for GOP challengers of Democratic lawmakers who voted for the bill. In March, when the legislation was approved, House Republican leader John Boehner pledged that the GOP would make the new law’s unpopularity a major campaign issue in the November elections. “You can only ignore the will of the people for so long and get away with it,” he said.

CNBC:

• Could Fed's Move Against Delflation End Up Backfiring? If you weren't worried about deflation, you may be now—thanks to the Federal Reserve's latest move to jumpstart the languid economy.
• Hard Times Investing: For Some, Cash Is Everything And Only Thing. Burned in the past decade by the dot-com bubble, Enron-style corporate governance, the housing bubble, the credit crunch and the Great Recession, retail investors have their money in places with little or no return but virtually no chance of a loss.

NY Post:

• Ameristar Casinos(ASCA) Mulling Sale. Ameristar Casinos, a regional operator of casinos in the Southwest and Midwest that has held up better than rivals in destinations like Las Vegas and Atlantic City, has hired an investment bank and is weighing a sale, The Post has learned. The company, which has an enterprise value of $2.4 billion -- or market cap plus debt -- has hired Lazard to explore the potential sale. The bank has begun to contact potential bidders, according to one source with direct knowledge of the situation. The sales process, a source said, is expected to begin in the fall.

Business Insider:

• Chart of the Day: Markets Losing Faith in Ben Bernanke's Deflation-Fighting Skills.
• Deja Vu: Slovakia Rejects Aid to Greece, Rumors About Irish Debt Flop, Fed Swap Lines Reopen, Euro Plunges.
  

Zero Hedge:

• July Budget Deficit Hits ($165 Billion), Longest String of Monthly Deficits on Record. With 22 months of deficits, it is now increasingly clear that America will never have a monthly surplus ever again. And the more debt is issued, the riskier the budget picture becomes, as the second rates begin increasing, now that the duration of US debt has increased by one year in the past 18 months, the interest payments are sure to explode, requiring even more borrowing, and so on, in true subprime borrower fashion, ad inf.
• Lack of Stock Dispersion Hits All Time Record as Most Stocks Now Trade as One. (graph)
  

CNN:

• Florida Attorney General Proposes Immigration Legislation. Florida Attorney General Bill McCollum -- who is in the midst of an intense Republican primary fight for governor -- has proposed legislation aimed at curbing illegal immigration, according to a statement from his office. Joined in Orlando, Florida, by legislators and law enforcement officials, McCollum unveiled the proposal Wednesday. It would require law enforcement officers to check suspected illegal immigrants' status in the course of a lawful stop. It would also require Florida businesses to use the E-Verify system to check that applicants are legally authorized to work and would enhance penalties for illegal aliens who commit crimes in Florida.

LA Times:

• Goldman Sachs(GS) Could Be Largely Unaffected by Financial Overhaul. As Wall Street scrambles to find the best and most profitable way to operate under the new financial reform law, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. — the firm that was expected to suffer the most under the legislation — could emerge practically unscathed. Top Goldman executives privately advised analysts that the bank did not expect the reform measure to cost it any revenue. "The statement was perhaps surprising in its level of conviction," Bank of America Merrill Lynch analyst Guy Moszkowski wrote in a note to clients, "but we've learned to take such judgments from GS very seriously." The contentious legislation has been viewed by some supporters as a way to rein in Wall Street, perhaps especially Goldman, which last year recorded net income of $13.4 billion. Richard Bove, a bank analyst at Rochdale Securities, said he had changed his view of the law's effect on Goldman. "I thought this company was going to be really harmed by this bill; now I've figured out that it's not going to happen," he said. "They should win big here."

Rasmussen Reports:

• Daily Presidential Tracking Poll. The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows that 24% of the nation's voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as president. Forty-six percent (46%) Strongly Disapprove, giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -22 (see trends).
• 57% of Likely Voters Describe Democratic Agenda as Extreme. Most U.S. voters believe the Democratic congressional agenda is extreme, while a plurality describe the Republican agenda as mainstream. A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 57% of Likely U.S. Voters think the agenda of Democrats in Congress is extreme. Thirty-four percent (34%) say it is more accurate to describe the Democratic agenda as mainstream.

Reuters:

• Russia's LUKOIL Resumes Gasoline Supply to Iran. Russian oil giant LUKOIL has resumed gasoline sales into Iran in partnership with China's state-run firm Zhuhai Zhenrong, even as the United States urges the international community to be tough with Tehran. Iran is the world's fifth-largest oil exporter but lacks adequate refining capacity to meet domestic demand for motor fuel, forcing it to import up to 40 percent of its requirements. LUKOIL's trading arm, Litasco, and Zhenrong discharged a 250,000-barrel gasoline cargo at the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas last week, industry sources said. Geneva-based Litasco was expected to ship a second cargo of the motor fuel to Bandar Abbas later this week, traders said. Chinese companies have delivered about half of Iran's gasoline imports in recent months. State-run Zhenrong is the single largest lifter of Iranian crude oil. LUKOIL has significant exposure in the United States, with 1,500 retail gasoline stations.
• UBS Says Sell Petrobras(PBR) on Capital Plan Doubts. Swiss bank UBS on Wednesday cut its rating on common shares of Brazilian state oil company Petrobras, recommending investors sell the stock on concerns about uncertainties linked to a massive oil-for-shares capitalization plan. UBS said the company runs an increasing risk of overpaying for oil reserves in the capitalization plan that would give Petrobras rights to up to 5 billion barrels of oil and raise as much as $25 billion from minority shareholders. The stock was cut to "sell" from "neutral."

Times of India:

• India May Temporarily Ban BlackBerry Services. India may temporarily shut down BlackBerry services if security concerns are not addressed in a meeting on Thursday, sources said, a sign the Canadian firm's tussle with authorities around the world is far from over.