Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth (-.30%)

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Education +1.52% 2) Airlines +.59% 3) Disk Drives +52%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• XRTX, HPQ, DELL, AAPL, IPGP, QLGC, PTNR, COGT, GENZ, FOSL, FIZZ, LOGM, UAUA, CSGS, FSYS, UEIC, VECO, MRX and JKS
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) AMR 2) CB 3) AKS 4) COST 5) TXN
  

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) HPQ 2) INTC 3) AAPL 4) SCHW 5) GENZ

Monday Watch

Weekend Recommendations
Citigroup:

• Reiterated Buy on (TGT), target $72.

Night Trading

• Asian indices are +1.0% to +2.0% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 130.50 -2.5 basis points.
• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 125.50 +3.0 basis points.
• S&P 500 futures +.53%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.54%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (DCI)/.64
• (WINN)/.12
  

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST

• Personal Income for July is estimated to rise +.3% versus unch. in June.
• Personal Spending for July is estimated to rise +.3% versus unch. in June.
• The PCE Core for July is estimated to rise +.1% versus unch. in June.

10:30 am EST

• Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity for August is estimated to fall -16.0% versus a -21.0% decline in July.

Upcoming Splits

• (TSCO) 2-for-1
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Bullard speaking could also impact trading today.
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.

Weekly Outlook

U.S. Week Ahead by MarketWatch (video).
Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.
Stocks to Watch Monday by MarketWatch.
Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly higher on buyout speculation, technical buying, less sovereign debt angst, falling financial sector pessimism, bargain-hunting and short-covering. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving mixed signals and the Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.

Market Week in Review

S&P 500 1,064.59 -.66%*



The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

*5-Day Change

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices

• S&P 500 1,064.59 -.66%
  
• DJIA 10,150.65 -.62%
  
• NASDAQ 2,153.63 -1.20%
  
• Russell 2000 616.17 +.98%
  
• Wilshire 5000 10,980.08 -.51%
  
• Russell 1000 Growth 474.54 -1.0%
  
• Russell 1000 Value 547.63 -.28%
  
• Morgan Stanley Consumer 657.87 -.46%
  
• Morgan Stanley Cyclical 809.78 -1.23%
• Morgan Stanley Technology 530.47 -2.02%
  
• Transports 4,184.90 -.58%
  
• Utilities 392.46 +1.77%
  
• MSCI Emerging Markets 40.27 -1.79%
  
• Lyxor L/S Equity Long Bias Index 950.39 -.68%
  
• Lyxor L/S Equity Variable Bias Index 843.93 -.02%
  
• Lyxor L/S Equity Short Bias Index 864.54 +2.02%
  

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line +91,538 -1.38%
  
• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -169 +7
  
• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 41.0 +28.13%
  
• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position +27,323 -55.97%
  
• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,246,784 -1.62%
  
• Total Put/Call .80 -22.33%
  
• OEX Put/Call 1.18 -3.28%
  
• ISE Sentiment 110.0 +35.80%
  
• NYSE Arms .53 -69.71%
  
• Volatility(VIX) 24.45 -4.08%
  
• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 12.41 +2.82%
  
• Smart Money Flow Index 8,951.42 -1.20%
  
• Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.834 Trillion +.1%
  
• AAII % Bulls 20.74 -31.12%
  
• AAII % Bears 49.47 +16.48%
  

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 267.27 +.10%
  
• Crude Oil 75.17 +1.69%
  
• Reformulated Gasoline 194.79 +1.18%
  
• Natural Gas 3.70 -10.94%
  
• Heating Oil 204.43 +3.51%
  
• Gold 1,237.90 +.66%
  
• Bloomberg Base Metals 203.76 -.46%
  
• Copper 338.45 +2.10%
  
• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 323.0 USD/Ton +8.88%
  
• China Hot Rolled Domestic Steel Sheet 4,176 Yuan/Ton -1.95%
• S&P GSCI Agriculture 372.61 -.40%
  

Economy

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index 120.90 +17%
  
• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -59.60 -.6 points
  
• Fed Fund Futures imply 72.0% chance of no change, 28.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 9/21
• US Dollar Index 82.92 -.17%
  
• Yield Curve 209.0 -3 basis points
  
• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.64% +3 basis points
  
• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $2.284 Trillion -.55%
  
• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 48.85 +4.50%
• U.S. Municipal CDS Index 232.29 +3.70%
  
• Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 154.66 +6.72%
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.63% +4 basis points
  
• TED Spread 16.0 -2 basis points
  
• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 112.90 +2.68%
  
• Euro Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 130.35 +8.30%
  
• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 258.89 +10.51%
  
• CMBS Super Senior AAA 10-Year Treasury Spread 257.0 -10 basis points
  
• M1 Money Supply $1.723 Trillion -.67%
• Business Loans 607.20 +.28%
  
• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 486,800 +.7%
  
• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 3.5% unch.
  
• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 4.36% -6 basis points
  
• Weekly Mortgage Applications 870.30 +4.89%
  
• ABC Consumer Confidence -44 +1 point
  
• Weekly Retail Sales +2.70% -10 basis points
  
• Nationwide Gas $2.68/gallon -.04/gallon
  
• U.S. Cooling Demand Next 7 Days 27.0% above normal
• Baltic Dry Index 2,712 -1.60%
  
• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 37.50 -6.25%
  
• Rail Freight Carloads 236,404 +1.13%
  
• Iraqi 2028 Government Bonds 86.50 -1.12%
  

Best Performing Style

• Small-Cap Growth +1.14%

Worst Performing Style

• Large-Cap Growth -1.0%

Leading Sectors

• Education +3.05%
• Gold +2.97%
• HMOs +2.06%
• REITs +1.85%
• Utilities +1.77%

Lagging Sectors

• I-Banks -2.79%
• Medical Equipment -2.92%
• Airlines -3.07%
  
• Oil Tankers -4.58%
• Coal -5.77%

One-Week High-Volume Gainers

One-Week High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Reversing Higher into Final Hour on Less Economic Fear, Short-Covering, Buyout Speculation, Bargain-Hunting

Broad Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  
• Sector Performance: Every Sector Rising
  
• Volume: Slightly Above Average
  
• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• VIX 25.10 -8.26%
  
• ISE Sentiment Index 101.0 -5.61%
  
• Total Put/Call .82 -8.89%
  
• NYSE Arms .61 -65.76%
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 112.90 bps +.57%
  
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 131.07 bps +.76%
  
• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 154.33 bps +.95%
  
• Emerging Market CDS Index 258.11 bps +.40%
  
• 2-Year Swap Spread 17.0 +1 bp
  
• TED Spread 16.0 +1 bp
  

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .14% -1 bp
  
• Yield Curve 209.0 +11 bps
  
• China Import Iron Ore Spot $142.90/Metric Tonne -.56%
  
• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -59.60 +3.2 points
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.64% +7 bps
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating +89 open in Japan
• DAX Futures: Indicating +5 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my Tech, Medical, Ag and Biotech long positions
  
• Disclosed Trades: Covered all of my (IWM)/(QQQQ) hedges and some of my (EEM) short
  
• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

BOTTOM LINE: Today's overall market action is very bullish as the S&P 500 reverses higher on better volume despite weaker economic data, Intel's lowered guidance, retail sector worries and some initial disappointment over Bernanke's comments. On the positive side, Airline, Gaming, Disk Drive, Computer, Oil Service, Coal, Road&Rail, Construction, Insurance, Steel, Energy and Alt Energy stocks are especially strong, rising 2.75%+. Cyclicals and small-caps are outperforming. Copper is rising +2.18% and the S&P GSCI Ag Spot Index is gaining +1.39%. The US scrap steel benchmark index is rising another +4.6% and has risen 8.9% over the last five days. The 10-year yield is reversing +19 points higher from session lows to 2.66%, which is a large positive. On the negative side, Retail and Oil Tanker shares are underperforming, rising less than +.5%. The Ireland sovereign cds is gaining +2.72% to 333.83 bps. The main cds indices are not confirming today's equity rally. As well, the euro trades poorly considering today's stock rally and Bernanke's comments. The large reversal higher in the 10-year yield off today's news likely indicates much of the recent turn lower in economic activity is now priced in and higher yields are likely over the coming weeks. I suspect US stocks can build on today's gains next week. I expect US stocks to trade modestly higher into the close from current levels on short-covering, bargain-hunting, less economic fear, technical buying and buyout speculation.