Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices

• S&P 500 1,332.41 +1.42%
  
• DJIA 12,376.46 +1.28%
  
• NASDAQ 2,789.60 +1.70%
  
• Russell 2000 846.77 +2.78%
  
• Wilshire 5000 13,980.70 +1.66%
  
• Russell 1000 Growth 610.06 +1.56%
  
• Russell 1000 Value 680.65 +1.55%
  
• Morgan Stanley Consumer 760.33 +1.27%
  
• Morgan Stanley Cyclical 1,116.16 +2.01%
• Morgan Stanley Technology 681.19 +.53%
  
• Transports 5,370.47 +3.13%
  
• Utilities 415.80 +1.89%
  
• MSCI Emerging Markets 49.14 +4.06%
  
• Lyxor L/S Equity Long Bias Index 1,042.77 +.41%
  
• Lyxor L/S Equity Variable Bias Index 883.87 +.93%
  
• Lyxor L/S Equity Short Bias Index 623.13 -5.63%
  

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line +124,506 +2.72%
  
• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index +305 +145
  
• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 35.0 +6.06%
  
• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position +254,894 +.46%
  
• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,516,581 +.83%
  
• Total Put/Call .85 +1.19%
  
• OEX Put/Call 1.65 +46.02%
  
• ISE Sentiment 102.0 -6.42%
  
• NYSE Arms .79 -24.27%
  
• Volatility(VIX) 17.40 -2.23%
• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 10.73 +.56%
  
• Smart Money Flow Index 10,175.64 +1.17%
  
• Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.736 Trillion +.10%
  
• AAII % Bulls 41.81 +10.73%
  
• AAII % Bears 31.07 -11.15%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 360.89 +.37%
  
• Crude Oil 107.94 +2.55%
  
• Reformulated Gasoline 315.13 +3.31%
  
• Natural Gas 4.36 -4.01%
  
• Heating Oil 313.45 +2.18%
  
• Gold 1,428.90 -.20%
  
• Bloomberg Base Metals 262.18 -2.70%
  
• Copper 425.85 -3.84%
  
• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 416.67 USD/Ton +.64%
• China Hot Rolled Domestic Steel Sheet 4,764 Yuan/Ton +.83%
  
• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,704.56 +1.68%
  

Economy

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index 130.0 +.70%
• S&P 500 EPS Estimates 1 Year Mean 94.34 unch.
  
• Citi US Economic Surprise Index +51.50 -2.7 points
  
• Fed Fund Futures imply 50.0% chance of no change, 50.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 4/27
• US Dollar Index 75.83 -.49%
  
• Yield Curve 264.0 -7 basis points
  
• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 3.44% unch.
  
• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $2.606 Trillion +.81%
  
• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 41.50 -1.67%
• California Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 210.12 +1.94%
  
• Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 166.33 -1.73%
• Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 157.11 -3.14%
• Saudi Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 118.41 -5.44%
• Iraqi 2028 Government Bonds 92.64 +1.44%
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.52% +8 basis points
  
• TED Spread 24.0 +1 basis point
  
• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 94.21 -.56%
  
• Euro Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 88.42 -12.74%
  
• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 200.02 -3.89%
  
• CMBS Super Senior AAA 10-Year Treasury Spread 202.0 unch.
  
• M1 Money Supply $1.889 Trillion +1.32%
  
• Business Loans 622.50 +.21%
  
• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 394,300 +.80%
  
• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 3.0% unch.
  
• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 4.86% +5 basis points
  
• Weekly Mortgage Applications 485,300 -7.46%
  
• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort -46.9 +2.0 points
  
• Weekly Retail Sales +2.30% +10 basis points
  
• Nationwide Gas $3.62/gallon +.06/gallon
  
• U.S. Heating Demand Next 7 Days 6.0% below normal
• Baltic Dry Index 1,530 -3.35%
  
• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 37.50 -11.76%
  
• Rail Freight Carloads 223,034 +.11%
  

Best Performing Style

• Small-Cap Growth +3.12%

Worst Performing Style

• Large-Cap Value +1.54%

Leading Sectors

• Papers +5.53%
• HMOs +5.43%
  
• Biotech +4.45%
• Telecom +4.33%
• Hospitals +3.26%

Lagging Sectors

• Oil Tankers +.04%
• Education -.07%
• Homebuilders -.10%
  
• Semis -.23%
  
• Computer Hardware -.86%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (21)

• GSIC, OXM, RURL, SPEC, CEPH, VHC, BODY, TSLA, ARII, TZOO, WAB, AH, GEVO, ELON, END, BBRG, KOP, FXCM, BLK, ENV and EBIX
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (10)

• CXS, CLNY, SRI, AMRS, MAPP, GSIG, EPOC, WAC, SEMG and ACXM
  

Weekly Charts
ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers
• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers
• High-Volume Losers
  

*5-Day Change

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Declining Eurozone Debt Angst, Short-Covering, Buyout Speculation, Economic Optimism

Broad Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  
• Sector Performance: Most Rising
  
• Volume: Slightly Below Average
  
• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• VIX 16.84 -5.07%
  
• ISE Sentiment Index 117.0 -10.69%
  
• Total Put/Call .87 +1.16%
  
• NYSE Arms .70 -65.07%
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 94.21 -1.35%
  
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 86.08 -11.53%
  
• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 166.33 bps -1.72%
  
• Emerging Market CDS Index 199.32 -3.0%
  
• 2-Year Swap Spread 18.0 +1 bp
  
• TED Spread 24.0 +2 bps
  

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .06% -3 bps
  
• Yield Curve 265.0 -2 bps
  
• China Import Iron Ore Spot $173.90/Metric Tonne +.87%
  
• Citi US Economic Surprise Index +51.50 +8.6 points
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.52% +3 bps
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating +122 open in Japan
• DAX Futures: Indicating +3 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my Biotech, Retail and Medical longs
  
• Disclosed Trades: Added (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, added to my (EEM) short
  
• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

BOTTOM LINE: Today's overall market action is mildly bullish as the S&P 500 builds on recent gains, despite Mideast unrest, more hawkish Fed rhetoric, tech sector worries, rising energy prices, emerging market inflation fears and Japan concerns. On the positive side, Gaming, Homebuilding, HMO, I-Banking and Ag shares are especially strong, rising 1.0%+. The Transportation Index is making another new multi-year high today. (XLF) has traded well throughout the day again. Gold is falling -.4%. The Spain sovereign cds is falling -6.55% to 218.16 bps, the Belgium sovereign cds is declining -4.33% to 133.33 bps and the UK sovereign cds is falling -4.73% to 52.16 bps. On the negative side, Alt Energy, Networking, Airline, REIT, Hospital, Wireless, Telecom, Computer, Oil Tanker and Semi shares are under mild pressure, falling more than .50%. Tech shares have underperformed throughout the day again. (IYR) has also been relatively weak today. Oil is rising +1.36%, copper is falling -1.24% and the UBS-Bloomberg Spot Ag Index is gaining another +.66%. The US price for a gallon of gas is up +.01 today to $3.62/gallon. It is up .50/gallon in 45 days. The Greece sovereign cds is rising +1.98% to 1,023.03 bps. Considering the US economy is supposedly gaining traction, action in copper, bonds and t-bills is noteworthy. As well, the SOX is rolling over again after failing to break above its 50-day moving average. Tech, in general trades very poorly, versus the broad market. Oil is becoming a big problem again and it trades as if another meaningful surge higher into the summer is in the offing, which would likely put a cap on the major averages. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-lower into the close from current levels on more shorting, profit-taking, technical selling, tech sector weakness, emerging market inflation fears, rising energy prices, Mideast unrest, Japan concerns and more hawkish Fed commentary.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth (+.46%)

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Networking -.69% 2) Alt Energy -.57% 3) Gold & Silver -.52%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• LOGI, RES, UTEK, LXK, GRS, RECN, DMAN, AVAV, FFIV, AMED, TSLA, XXIA, JDSU, CBOE, RVBD, ICE, RBN, PTY, MED, SRZ and APH
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) HRB 2) SRX 3) HRBN 4) SUN 5) DNN
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) SRZ 2) JKHY 3) JASO 4) GHL 5) MBRG
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume
  

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth (+1.07%)

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Agriculture +2.0% 2) Gaming +1.75% 3) I-Banks +1.70%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• GGAL, BAP, BCS, BP, BMA, SI, SSYS, BRKS, ACTG, GOLD, SFE, OPTR, NDAQ, CMCO, HRBN, WPRT, ICFI, TDSC, VRUS, LOGM, HTHT, SSYS, BOOM, WYNN, TSCO, DXPE, HMIN, SBRA, GGAL, SRX, NYX, EWU, VHI, KCE, BLK, ALEX, UA, IO, TBI, SMCI, TRN, SEMG, OCR, WSM and OXPS
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) LLTC 2) OPTR 3) ICE 4) STEC 5) WYNN
  

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) WSO 2) ALV 3) SWM 4) BA 5) GOOG

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume
  

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:

• Fed's Rules Let Brokers Turn Junk Into Cash at Height of Financial Crisis. At the height of the financial crisis, the Federal Reserve allowed the world’s largest banks to turn more than $118 billion in junk bonds, defaulted debt, securities of unknown ratings and stocks into cash. Collateral of those asset types made up 72 percent of the total $164.3 billion in market-rate securities pledged to the Fed on Sept. 29, 2008, two weeks after the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., according to documents released yesterday. The collateral backed $155.7 billion in loans on the largest day of borrowing from the Primary Dealer Credit Facility, which was created in March 2008 to provide loans to brokers as Bear Stearns Cos. collapsed.
• Libya-Owned Bank Drew at Least $5 Billion From Fed. Arab Banking Corp., a lender part- owned by the Central Bank of Libya, used a branch in New York to borrow at least $5 billion from the U.S. Federal Reserve as credit markets seized up in 2008 and 2009. The bank, then 29 percent-owned by the Libyan state, drew $1.1 billion from the Fed’s so-called discount window in October 2008, including $450 million during the week when hundreds of financial firms borrowed a record amount of emergency funding from the U.S lending program, according to data released by the Fed today. Arab Banking Corp. also owed about $4 billion to the Fed under other bailout programs in the fall of 2009, data released in December show. Arab Banking Corp. received an exemption that allows the firm to continue operating while prohibiting it from engaging in any transactions with the government of Libya, according to the Treasury Department. “It is incomprehensible to me that while creditworthy small businesses in Vermont and throughout the country could not receive affordable loans, the Federal Reserve was providing tens of billions of dollars in credit to a bank that is substantially owned by the Central Bank of Libya,” said Senator Bernard Sanders of Vermont, an independent who caucuses with Democrats, in a letter to Fed and U.S. officials. The letter was addressed to Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner and John Walsh, acting comptroller of the currency. The figure refers to the aggregate amount of loans the bank received under U.S. lending programs. Arab Banking Corp. said Dec. 2 that Libya’s stake in the Manama, Bahrain-based company had increased to 59 percent.
• Oil Rises to 30-Month High on Concern Libya Conflict to Prolong Supply Cut. Oil rose to the highest in 30 months in New York on concern the conflict in Libya, Africa’s third- largest exporter, will prolong production cuts and spread to Middle East producers. Futures advanced as much as 0.9 percent, extending the biggest quarterly rally since 2009, as troops loyal to Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi retook control of the oil port of Ras Lanuf and shelled Brega, another energy hub. Libyan oil output fell 72 percent in March to a 49-year low, and OPEC production slid 1.2 percent, a Bloomberg News survey showed.
• Corn Extends Advance on Concern Higher U.S. Acreage Won't Boost Stockpiles. Corn futures jumped after surging the most allowed by the exchange yesterday on speculation an expansion in plantings in the U.S., the world’s largest grower and exporter, may not be enough to rebuild global stockpiles. May-delivery corn advanced as much as 5.7 percent to $7.33 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade, extending yesterday’s 4.5 percent gain. Futures traded at $7.3125 a bushel at 10:59 a.m. in Singapore, a 6.1 percent advance this week.
• Lung Cancer in Women Falls for First Time as U.S. Rates Drop, CDC Reports. Lung cancer in women fell for the first time as the rate of all cancers in the U.S. declined from 2003 to 2007, according to a report from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
• SEC Said to Investigate Sokol Over Lubrizol Stock Purchases. David Sokol, the Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK/A) manager who resigned after disclosing that he bought stock in a firm whose takeover he helped negotiate, is being investigated by U.S. regulators, a person with knowledge of the matter said. The Securities and Exchange Commission is probing whether Sokol, 54, bought shares in Lubrizol Corp. (LZ) on inside information that Berkshire was considering buying the company, said the person, who declined to be identified because the investigation is secret. The SEC is seeking records from Sokol’s brokerage and examining trading data from the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the person said.
• Australia Boom Pays Men Without Degree More Than Bernanke. Travis Marks, a 24-year-old with no college degree, is hitting pay dirt as Australia’s mining bonanza fuels demand for workers. Already making triple the nation’s average salary, he expects to get even richer. “With what’s going on in the industry, there’s lots of big jobs coming up,” said Marks, who earns A$220,000 ($227,150) a year -- more than Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s $199,700. His job as a rigger for a company providing construction and maintenance services to the resources industry is “a really good way to get ahead as a young bloke,” he said. Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens faces a developed-world rarity: wage pressure in an economy near full employment.
• Hong Kong House Prices Likely to Drop 25-30% as Rates Rise, Barclays Says. Hong Kong housing prices are likely to drop by 25-30 percent as mortgage rates climb to 4-4.5 percent by the end of next year, Barclays Capital said. The “debt-fuelled property price rally since mid-2007 is entering its last leg as rising mortgage rates signal a reduction in affordability and purchasing power,” analysts led by Andrew Lawrence wrote in a report dated today. “The end result of the removal of this liquidity is likely to be a property price correction, reflecting our belief that property markets top out soon after liquidity has been most abundant.”
• Almost one in five of China's state-run coal-fired power plants faces bankruptcy because rising fuel costs are eroding earnings while electricity prices are frozen, according to China Power International Development Ltd. Eighty-four of the 436 plants owned by the nation's biggest power producers aren't financially viable and more than half made losses in 2010, Shou Rufeng, an investor-relations official at Hong Kong-listed China Power, said by phone today, citing statistics from the country's five largest utilities. China's electricity prices haven't risen since November 2009, while power-station fuel costs surged, as the government controls tariffs to contain inflation. The average benchmark price for coal for immediately delivery at Qinhuangdao, China's largest port for the commodity, rose 25% last year. "The only way to help the nation's coal-fired power plants is to raise electricity prices but the government may become more cautious as inflation is likely heating up, even though there are rumors of a price hike," Zhang Shun, an analyst with Ping An Securities Co., said by phone from Beijing today.
  

Wall Street Journal:

• Ragtag Rebels Struggle in Battle. The rebels battling Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi are suffering from significant military shortcomings, including a shortage of trained fighters, a limited ability to control their own troops and growing problems for Western warplanes trying to distinguish between Libyan army forces and civilians. The military deficiencies help explain the recent, dramatic swings of fortune for rebels. The problems also are forcing the U.S. to consider new options—including using covert Central Intelligence Agency teams to work directly with anti-Gadhafi forces to improve the accuracy of airstrikes and avoid errant attacks.
• Egypt's Top Spy a U.S. Concern. When Egypt's new intelligence chief quietly flew to Syria's capital for a day of meetings last month, his American counterparts took note. What was Murad Muwafi, the new Egyptian spymaster, doing in Damascus? With whom was he meeting? "Honestly, we have our ideas, but we don't know anything for certain," said a senior U.S. defense official, who didn't elaborate on what those ideas might be. "I wouldn't say we're worried—not yet. Concerned is probably a better word."
• Investors Move Onward and Upward. Dow Gains 6.4%, Posts Best First Quarter in 12 Years in Tumultuous Period. Overcoming a pair of major shocks in the first quarter, global financial markets recovered amid growing optimism that the recovery from the financial crisis had become self-sustaining.
• Report Cites Fannie, Freddie Executive Pay. A federal watchdog criticized federal regulators' oversight of executive pay packages for top officials at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in a report published Thursday. The top six executives at the mortgage giants earned $35 million in the last two years, according to the report from the inspector general of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, which regulates the mortgage giants. The firms were taken over by the government in 2008 and have cost taxpayers $134 billion.
• Subprime Bonds Are Back. Subprime and other residential mortgage bonds that helped trigger the financial crisis are back in vogue with long-term investors, in the latest sign that American credit markets are healing after the worst downturn in a generation. The prices on a representative slice of the subprime bond market have doubled from 30 cents on the dollar at the low point of the crisis to roughly 60 cents today. Their comeback underscores how investors have regained the courage to take on more risk as the economy recovers, pushing up the prices of a broad swath of riskier assets
• Oracle's(ORCL) Hurd Says Directors Will Soon Be Auditing IT Security. Oracle President Mark Hurd was in New York yesterday for the Oracle Chief Security Officer Summit, an all-day conference for Oracle customers and prospects. He said in a short speech that he thinks corporate boards are going to start taking responsibility for IT security as part of their routine corporate governance duties. “There is talk of making risk management a staple of every board… Board members do not like this. IT security is not an event. It is an ongoing risk. And that is one reason that people don’t like dealing with the subject,” he said. All it will take is a “significant attack” on a large company and the pressure will grow for boards to step up, he added.
• Intuit(INTU), Salesforce.com(CRM) Team Up to Target Small Businesses. The two companies on Friday are set to announce a partnership that marries Intuit’s accounting software for small businesses with Salesforce.com’s sales-automation offerings–all handled over the Web, or in the cloud, as many industry executives put it these days.
• Big Banks Back 'Say on Pay'. Goldman Sachs Group Inc.(GS), J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.(JPM), Morgan Stanley(MS) and other financial firms are expected to recommend in coming proxy filings that shareholders get an annual vote on executive-pay practices, according to people familiar with the matter.
• Alaska Governor Asks Government To Expedite Offshore Drilling Projects. Alaska's governor asked federal regulators Thursday to move ahead in allowing new oil development in the Arctic Ocean, as the state looks for ways to shore up declining production.
• We've Become a Nation of Takers, Not Makers by Stephen Moore. More Americans work for the government than in manufacturing, farming, fishing, forestry, mining and utilities combined. If you want to understand better why so many states—from New York to Wisconsin to California—are teetering on the brink of bankruptcy, consider this depressing statistic: Today in America there are nearly twice as many people working for the government (22.5 million) than in all of manufacturing (11.5 million). This is an almost exact reversal of the situation in 1960, when there were 15 million workers in manufacturing and 8.7 million collecting a paycheck from the government.

MarketWatch:

• Oil ETF Buyers, Beware.

Business Insider:

• Japan Will Take Control of Nuke Operator TEPCO Via Fund Injection. Japan will take control of Tokyo Electric Company, operator of Fukushima Nuclear Plant, via public fund injection, according to Reuters. Although the government is unlikely to take more than a 50 percent stake, the fund injection will give the government some level of management control, an official told the Mainichi Daily news.
• AUDIO: Listen to an Ex-Galleon Trader Try to Get Another Trader to Admit to Insider Trading.
  

Zero Hedge:

• Will Goldman(GS) COO Gary Cohn Face Consequences for Committing Perjury Before the FCIC?

New York Times:

• Buffett's Handling of Deputy Baffles Some Experts. Warren E. Buffett is an old-school capitalist with a rock star’s aura, a global celebrity who is revered like a small-town hero. Yet that carefully cultivated image — the envy of nearly every top executive — risks being tarnished by a disclosure that he knew one of his right-hand executives had bought shares in a company before Mr. Buffett’s company announced a deal for it.

Forbes:

• Washington Needs to Stop Indulging Americans' Magical Thinking On Deficit.

Rasmussen Reports:

• Daily Presidential Tracking Poll. The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows that 24% of the nation's voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as president. Forty-two percent (42%) Strongly Disapprove, giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -18 (see trends).

USA Today:

• CEO Pay Soars While Workers' Pay Stalls. At a time most employees can barely remember their last substantial raise, median CEO pay jumped 27% in 2010 as the executives’ compensation started working its way back to prerecession levels, a USA TODAY analysis of data from GovernanceMetrics International found. Workers in private industry, meanwhile, saw their compensation grow just 2.1% in the 12 months ended December 2010, says the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Reuters:

• Dollar Climbs Off Lows After More Hawkish Fed Comments. The dollar drifted off lows versus the euro and particularly against commodity currencies early in Asia on Friday following more hawkish comments from a senior Federal Reserve official. Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Narayana Kocherlakota said rates should rise by up to 75 basis points by year-end if core inflation and economic growth picked up as he expected, the Wall Street Journal reported. The dollar index , which tracks its performance against a basket of major currencies, clawed off the session low of 75.664 to last stand at 76.005, still down 0.15 percent on the day. Against the yen, the dollar extended its climb to 83.22 yen , reaching highs not seen since March 11. Dollar/yen is now back in its trading range roughly between 81-84.5 seen before a massive earthquake hit Japan earlier in the month and caused the yen to rally to a record high on expectations of Japanese repatriation flows. Kocherlakota's comments came hot on the heels of those from Kansas City Fed President Thomas Hoenig and St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, who said the Fed needed to exit its unprecedented monetary stimulus earlier in the week. Those hawkish comments have helped driven U.S. Treasury yields higher this week. The two-year yield hit a six-week high around 0.84 percent on Thursday. Still, traders appeared to be waiting to hear from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke himself and Fed officials like Janet Yellen to see if the debate within the policy-setting arm of the central bank has changed substantially. "There is a right of reply (from them) and the longer the right of reply isn't taken up, the more important it is. The radio silence is something that should be helping the U.S. dollar," said Robert Rennie, chief currency strategist at Westpac Bank.
• European Banks Turned to Fed at Height of Crisis. Banks from Europe drew tens of billions of dollars in emergency loans from the Federal Reserve at the height of the financial crisis in 2008, underscoring the critical role of the U.S. central bank in preventing a meltdown in the world's banking system. Nine of the 12 largest borrowers from the Fed's discount window on the day the Fed lending peaked were foreign-owned firms, documents released on Thursday showed.
• Weekly Equity Fund Net Inflows Top $6.1 Billion - Lipper.
  

Financial Times:

• Saudi Arabia may need the oil price to rise to more than $100 a barrel by 2015 to be able to fulfill its plans to increase public spending, citing new estimates by the Institute of International Finance. The break-even oil price for the Saudi Arabian government to balance its budget was $68 a barrel last year, $88 this year, and will increase to $110 in 2015, the IIF said.
  

ShanghaiDaily.com:

• Panic Buying in China as Price Woes Hit Home. That old bugaboo "inflationary expectations" has infected shoppers in Shanghai, who are rushing to buy up goods in anticipation that prices will be higher tomorrow than today. The wave of what some are calling "panic buying" has hit supermarkets, shops and even online shopping websites across the city, media reports said on Monday. That followed reports that some goods - including instant noodles, soap and shampoo - will become considerably more expensive from April. Disconcerting news for Chinese consumers already haunted by the specter of months of unbridled inflation. The Consumer Price Index, which measures broad price fluctuations, seems to be invading the public psyche. Even unsophisticated old peddlers on the street now know the phrase CPI. Li Maoyu, an analyst at the Changjiang Securities Co, said the vast majority of consumers in China remain price-conscious. For daily necessities, price changes rattle the nerves. "Inflationary expectations have hardly eased despite the government's intensive efforts to rein in price advances," Li said. Worse, some economists are predicting that inflation may have accelerated to 5 percent in March. The National Development and Reform Commission, China's top economic planning agency, said last week that consumer prices in the first quarter may have risen about 4.9 percent. The agency predicts that the inflation barometer may rise between 4.8 percent and 5 percent in the first half. One problem with higher interest rates is that they risk an even heavier flow of speculative funds into the country as investors chase yields. So-called "hot money" threatens to roil already troubled equity and housing markets, while heaping more pressure on China to accelerate reform of its exchange-rate system. Consumers watching prices go up week by week often don't understand the economics behind the increases or the government's remedial measures. They just see their wallets shrinking fast.

Financial News:

• China's c0ommercial city banks should cut "impractical" scale and profit growth targets in a timely manner because the country has lowered its gross-domestic-product growth target, China Banking Regulatory Commission Assistant Chairman Yan Qingmin wrote in a commentary. The city banks should prevent risks from property loans and lendings to local government financing vehicles, Yan wrote.

China Securities Journal:

• China may raise interest rates to achieve positive real rates this year, citing Chinese central bank adviser Xia Bin.
• Chinese central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan said the nation is "not in a hurry" for the yuan to join the International Monetary Fund's Special Drawing Rights basket.
  

Caixin:

• All Aboard China's Fast Trains to Trouble. Now that high-speed trains are crisscrossing the country, enormous costs and other shortcomings have been exposed. More track for high-speed railways was laid in China over the past decade than all new rail installed in western countries combined over the past half-century. Opponents of the ongoing project, however, say high-speed trains serve only the rich. They call the build-up wrong for China's strategic positioning, citing serious market, debt and financial risks. They also point to technical dangers and safety issues that run against the grain of China's push for "scientific development."

Evening Recommendations
Citigroup:

• Reiterated Buy on (MHS), added to Top Picks Live list, raised target to $77.

Night Trading

• Asian equity indices are +.25% to +1.25% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 108.0 +1.5 basis points.
  
• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 125.50 unch.
  
• S&P 500 futures +.12%.
  
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.22%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• None of note
  

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST

• The Change in Non-farm Payrolls for March is estimated at 190K versus 192K in February.
• The Unemployment Rate for March is estimated at 8.9% versus 8.9% in February.
• Average Hourly Earnings for March are estimated to rise +.2% versus unch. in February.
  

10:00 am EST

• ISM Manufacturing for March is estimated to fall to 61.0 versus a reading of 61.4 in February.
• ISM Prices Paid for March is estimated to rise to 82.9 versus 82.0 in February.

Afternoon

• Total Vehicle Sales for March are estimated to fall to 13.25M versus 13.38M in February.

Upcoming Splits

• (SF) 3-for-2
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Plosser speaking and the Fed's Dudley speaking could also impact trading today.
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by commodity and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Rising Energy Prices, Profit-Taking, Eurozone Debt Angst, Japan Concerns

Broad Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Higher
  
• Sector Performance: Mixed
  
• Volume: Below Average
  
• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• VIX 17.45 -1.47%
  
• ISE Sentiment Index 151.0 +58.95%
  
• Total Put/Call .79 +6.76%
  
• NYSE Arms 1.42 +95.41%
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 95.50 -.44%
  
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 96.08 -2.18%
  
• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 169.25 bps +.99%
  
• Emerging Market CDS Index 205.23 -.61%
  
• 2-Year Swap Spread 17.0 unch.
  
• TED Spread 22.0 +1 bp
  

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .09% unch.
  
• Yield Curve 267.0 +2 bps
  
• China Import Iron Ore Spot $172.40/Metric Tonne +1.11%
  
• Citi US Economic Surprise Index +42.90 -1.5 points
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.49% +4 bps
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating -20 open in Japan
• DAX Futures: Indicating +41 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my Biotech and Medical longs
  
• Disclosed Trades: None
  
• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

BOTTOM LINE: Today's overall market action is mildly bullish as the S&P 500 consolidates recent gains, despite rising Mideast unrest, rising energy prices, emerging market inflation fears, eurozone debt angst and Japan concerns. On the positive side, Road & Rail, REIT, Biotech, Networking, Paper, Ag and Defense shares are especially strong, rising .75%+. The Transportation Index is making a new multi-year high today. (IYR) has traded well throughout the day again. Small-caps are also outperforming again. Lumber is rising +1.34% and Copper is gaining +.47%. The Saudi sovereign cds is falling -2.24% to 119.55 bps and the US sovereign cds is declining -1.49% to 42.19 bps. The 10-year yield is stable, rising +2 bps to 3.45%. On the negative side, Airline and Semi shares are under mild pressure, falling more than .75%. (XLF) has undperformed throughout the day. Oil is rising +2.35% and the UBS-Bloomberg Spot Ag Index is gaining +2.17%. The US price for a gallon of gas is up +.02 today to $3.61/gallon. It is up .49/gallon in 44 days. The Spain sovereign cds is jumping +6.79% to 233.50 bps, the Japan sovereign cds is rising +2.62% to 99.63 bps and the Ireland sovereign cds is climbing +2.86% to 640.17 bps. Despite Goldman Sachs moving Chinese stocks to Overweight last night, the Shanghai Composite fell for the third day in a row, declining -.94%, and finished near session lows. Gains in european equities and tomorrow's jobs report could spur further stock gains tomorrow. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close from current levels on short-covering, more economic optimism, window-dressing and buyout speculation.