North American Investment Grade CDS Index 95.54 +.84%
European Financial Sector CDS Index 83.08 -.78%
Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 170.08 bps +2.61%
Emerging Market CDS Index 201.86 +2.03%
2-Year Swap Spread 17.0 +1 bp
TED Spread 21.0 -2 bps
Economic Gauges:
3-Month T-Bill Yield .07% +2 bps
Yield Curve 273.0 unch.
China Import Iron Ore Spot $183.30/Metric Tonne +.77%
Citi US Economic Surprise Index +25.80 -3.8 points
10-Year TIPS Spread 2.63% +1 bp
Overseas Futures:
Nikkei Futures: Indicating -13 open in Japan
DAX Futures: Indicating +43 open in Germany
Portfolio:
Higher: On gains in my Medical, Retail, Tech and Biotech sector longs
Disclosed Trades: Covered all of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and then added them back
Market Exposure: 75% Net Long
BOTTOM LINE: Today's overall market action is mildly bullish as the S&P 500 trades at session highs despite rising energy prices, emerging market inflation fears, financial sector weakness, disappointing economic data and rising eurozone debt angst. On the positive side, Tobacco, Food, Restaurant, REIT, Drug, Biotech, Medical, Disk Drive, Paper, Energy and Utility shares are especially strong, rising more than .75%. (IYR) has traded well throughout the day. The Transports are trading better today. Small-caps are also outperforming. The Spain sovereign cds is falling -1.0% to 219.82 bps. On the negative side, Airline, Homebuilding, Hospital, I-Banking, Bank, Ag and Defense shares are under pressure, falling more than .5%. (XLF) has been heavy throughout the day again. Cyclicals are also underperforming. Oil is rising +1.3%, gold is jumping +1.22% and lumber is falling -2.97%. The US price for a gallon of gas is unch. today at $3.81/gallon. It is up .69/gallon in 58 days. The 10-year TIPS spread is building slightly on recent gains. The US dollar continues to trade very poorly, given the situation in Europe and recent equity weakness, which is helping to boost oil/gold again. The Portugal sovereign cds is rising +3.68% to 592.66 bps, the Belgium sovereign cds is rising +3.57% to 131.17 bps and the Greece sovereign cds is surging +4.79% to 1,139.05 bps. The Greece sovereign cds is making another new record high. As well, the California Municipal cds is rising +3.2% to 235.35 bps. Oil is not trading like a major top is in place as of yet, which is a large broad equity market negative. For the third consecutive day, the major averages are once again displaying exceptional resilience in the face of a number of potential downside catalysts as the S&P 500 trades back to its 50-day moving average. If the bears are unable to break us convincingly lower on tomorrow morning's likely disappointing economic data, I suspect we could see another more meaningful late afternoon surge in equities. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close from current levels on short-covering, bargain-hunting and technical buying.
Greek, Portuguese Yields Surge to Record as Schaeuble Raises Restructuring. Greek and Portuguese bonds led a slump in the securities of Europe’s most indebted nations amid mounting investor concern that some may be forced to restructure their debts. The declines pushed the yields on Greek and Portuguese 10- year bonds to euro-era records after German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said that Greece may need to renegotiate its debt burden if an audit in June questions its ability to pay creditors. Standard & Poor’s head of European sovereign ratings, Moritz Kraemer, said the risk of such an event has risen. Greek two-year yields climbed the most since January 27. “Schaeuble’s comments bring the prospect of restructuring back onto the table,” said Peter Chatwell, a fixed-income strategist at Credit Agricole Corporate & Investment Bank in London. “It gives the market plenty of time to fret. If we have to wait until June, there’s the prospect of event risk in the future, which leaves the market open to speculation and spread- widening.” The yield on 10-year Greek debt jumped 36 basis points to 13.27 percent as of 4:38 p.m. in London, the highest since at least 1998 when Bloomberg began collecting the data. The two- year note yield surged as much as 103 basis points to 17.96 percent. Portuguese 10-year yields added 14 basis points to 8.88 percent, after reaching 8.89 percent, the most since at least 1997. Two-year note yields were 26 basis points higher at 9.31 percent. Yields on 10-year Spanish debt rose nine basis points to 5.32 percent, while the yield on Irish securities of a similar maturity jumped 25 basis points to 9.34 percent.
Geithner Says U.S. Has More Room to Increase Taxes Without Harming Economy. “We have the capacity, with very modest changes in tax reform” to improve the country’s fiscal position without hurting future growth, Geithner said. The changes the Obama administration is seeking pose “no plausible risk” to how the economy grows, he said at an event in Washington.
U.S. Jobless Claims Unexpectedly Jump. More Americans unexpectedly filed first-time claims for unemployment insurance last week, reflecting greater-than-normal volatility at the end of the quarter. Applications for jobless benefits rose 27,000 in the week ended April 9 to 412,000, the most in two months, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. Economists projected claims would be little changed at 380,000, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey. The four-week moving average, a less volatile measure, rose to 395,750 from 390,250. The unemployment rate among people eligible for benefits, which tends to track the national jobless rate, fell to 2.9 percent in the week ended April 2 from 3 percent the prior week.
Ackermann Is 'Dangerous,' Ex-IMF Economist Johnson Tells TAZ. Deutsche Bank AG (DBK) Chief Executive Officer Josef Ackermann is “one of the most dangerous bank managers in the world” because he’s sticking to the company’s high profitability target, Simon Johnson, a former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, was cited as saying by German newspaper Die Tageszeitung. The target of pretax return on equity of 25 percent is only possible because Ackermann knows Deutsche Bank poses systemic risk and would be rescued by taxpayers, Johnson said in the interview, according to an article on the newspaper’s website dated April 13.
Obama's Money Pump for 2012 Re-Election Campaign Primed by Chicago Friends. Les Coney, an executive vice president at Chicago-based Mesirow Financial, will take a seat at two of three hometown events Barack Obama is scheduled to headline today as the president kicks off fundraising for a re- election bid that might cost as much as $1 billion.
CFTC's Proposal to Change Futures Margin System May 'Kill' Brokerage Model. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission may require margin changes in futures markets that could wipe out billions of dollars of interest income at brokers. The CFTC has proposed divvying up margin payments of individual swaps users at clearinghouses rather than allowing accounts to be treated as one pool by banks representing multiple customers. Futures markets now allow banks to pool all their customer accounts together when settling a day’s margins. The swaps plan may be used for futures margin, too, said CFTC Commissioner Scott O’Malia. “It’s being considered,” he said in an interview yesterday.
California Begs Texas for Job-Creating Recipe With Growth Trading Places. When California Lieutenant Governor Gavin Newsom begins meetings in Austin with Hardee’s hamburgers chief Andrew Puzder, local Chamber of Commerce Chairman Bobby Jenkins and Texas Governor Rick Perry, it’s because the most- populous state lingers in a funk, even as the U.S. pulls out of the deepest recession in half a century. The world’s eighth-largest economy has lagged in job growth since California-based lenders such as Countrywide Financial Corp. led America into the housing bust. Unemployment in the state is 12.2 percent, more than a third higher than the national average. While signature industries such as technology, trade and tourism have rebounded, construction and government employment are weak or falling. Newsom is one of two California Democrats in the talks starting today on how the Lone Star State created 165,000 jobs over the past three years, while California, with the country’s largest workforce, lost 1.15 million, according to the trip’s organizer, Assemblyman Dan Logue, a Republican from Linda.
Plosser Says Fed Should Adopt Inflation Target as Stimulus Exit Approaches. Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Charles Plosser said the U.S. central bank should set a numerical inflation target to promote price stability as it prepares to withdraw record monetary stimulus. “The apparent strengthening of the U.S. economy suggests that, in the not-too-distant future, monetary policy will have to begin reversing course from a very accommodative policy stance,” Plosser, 62, said today in the text of remarks at the annual Hyman P. Minsky conference in New York, organized by the Levy Economics Institute of Bard College. “As we choreograph that exit, I believe that the Fed should do all it can to underscore its commitment to maintaining price stability,” said Plosser, who votes this year on the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee. Plosser has said the central bank should consider removing record monetary stimulus in 2011 before inflation flares.
China Changes How It Reports GDP. The National Bureau of Statistics is bringing China’s gross domestic product data closer to international standards, but will likely ignite some controversy along the way. On Friday, the bureau is scheduled to issue economic data for the first quarter, and for the first time it will include a measure known as the quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted annualized rate of growth of gross domestic product.
CFOs: Revenue Surge Needed to Boost Hiring. Despite double-digit gains in corporate earnings over the past six quarters, it would take much stronger-than-expected revenue growth for businesses to be comfortable adding employees, according to a new survey.
Interesting News From The LA Ports. (graph) In March, outbound traffic at the LA ports spiked 11%. This comes two days after that disappointing February trade balance data.
TVA Settlement Resolves N.C. Bad-Air Claims. The Tennessee Valley Authority today agreed to a $3 billion to $5 billion cleanup of its coal-fired power plants in three states, resolving claims North Carolina made in a 2006 lawsuit. The Environmental Protection Agency announced the settlement of Clean Air Act violations at 11 power plants in Alabama, Kentucky and Tennessee. It requires TVA to install new or upgraded pollution controls that will reduce smog and acid rain-forming emissions by more than two-thirds. The independent federal utility will also spend $350 million on clean energy projects, including $11.2 million for N.C. energy-efficiency and electricity demand-reducing programs. TVA will also pay a $10 million fine. The settlement goes beyond the terms of a federal judge's 2009 order that settled North Carolina's lawsuit against TVA.
Reuters:
China Wealth Fund Denies Reports of Spanish Bank Investment. China Investment Corp, the country's sovereign wealth fund, on Thursday denied reports that it was studying a $9 billion investment in Spanish banks. "The reports are groundless and are not in line with the truth," a CIC official, speaking on the condition of anonymity, told Reuters.
Dollar Slides Across the Board as Rate View Weighs. The dollar fell on Thursday in choppy trading and further losses were seen as likely, hurt by reported central bank selling amid a backdrop of low U.S. interest rates that were not expected to rise any time soon.Recent U.S. economic numbers, including jobless claims and retail sales, have come in on the soft side, which kept intact expectations the Federal Reserve's $600 billion asset-buying program would stay in place until June. The ICE Futures' dollar index dropped to a fresh 16-month low at 74.617 .DXY. At midday, it was down 0.2 percent at 74.827. The euro, in contrast, remained supported by the prospect of higher interest rates in the euro zone despite the re-emergence of peripheral debt issues.
US, Allies See Libyan Rebels in Hopeless Disarray. Too little is known about Libya's rebels and they remain too fragmented for the United States to get seriously involved in organizing or training them, let alone arming them, U.S. and European officials say. U.S. and allied intelligence agencies believe NATO's no-fly zone and air strikes will be effective in stopping Muammar Gaddafi's forces from killing civilians and dislodging rebels from strongholds like Benghazi, the officials say. But the more the intelligence agencies learn about rebel forces, the more they appear to be hopelessly disorganized and incapable of coalescing in the foreseeable future. U.S. government experts believe the state of the opposition is so grave that it could take years to organize, arm and train them into a fighting force strong enough to drive Gaddafi from power and set up a working government.The realistic outlook, U.S. and European officials said, is for an indefinite stalemate between the rebels -- supported by NATO air power -- and Gaddafi's forces.
USA Today:
US Internet Ad Revenue Hit Record in 2010. U.S. Internet advertising revenue hit a record $26 billion in 2010, boosted by the popularity of online videos and social media. A PricewaterhouseCoopers report commissioned by the Interactive Advertising Bureau found that last year's ad revenue grew 15% from 2009. The previous record was in 2008, when full-year revenue hit $23.4 billion. The report, released Wednesday, said fourth-quarter advertising revenue also hit a record, at $7.4 billion. That's up 19% from the fourth quarter of 2009. The previous record was in the third quarter of 2010, at $6.5 billion. The most popular ad format was search, which represented 46%, or $12 billion, of the year's total revenue. Display-related ads accounted for 38%, or $9.9 billion, of 2010 ad revenue. That category includes banner ads, digital video ads and sponsorships. The third-largest Internet ad category is classifieds, which accounted for $2.6 billion, or 10% of 2010 revenue. PricewaterhouseCoopers partner David Silverman said more time spent online, fueled by the popularity of digital videos and social media, has helped fuel the ongoing advertising growth. The report estimated 2010 mobile advertising revenue to be between $550 million and $650 million in the U.S. This is the first time it estimated mobile ad revenue.
Handelsblatt:
Germany's Federal Network Agency said the government's decision to idle the country's seven oldest nuclear reactors for a three-month safety review could cause power supply bottlenecks in the fall and winter.
Valor Economico:
Brazil's central bank is creating a group to monitor food prices because there's demand-driven pressure on inflation.
Folha de S.Paulo:
The Brazilian government sees a possibility of the benchmark inflation exceeding the country's target as early as May. Brazil consumer prices may exceed the 6.5% upper-limit of the government's target next month, ahead of a previous estimate that the breach would occur between July and August.
Xinhua:
China supports "reasonable" changes to the UN Security Council to make it more "representative" of developing countries, especially in Africa, citing a statement from Hong Lei, a foreign ministry spokesman.
Senate Panel Says Goldman(GS) Mislead Clients, Lawmakers on CDOs. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) designed, marketed and sold collateralized debt obligations that misled investors and created conflicts of interest as the company built short positions before the U.S. housing market collapsed, a Senate panel said in its report on the financial crisis. In the case of one CDO, Hudson Mezzanine Funding 2006-1, Goldman Sachs told investors its interests were aligned with theirs while the firm held 100 percent of the short side, according to the report released today by the Senate’s Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations. Senator Carl Levin, the Michigan Democrat who leads the panel, urged regulators to review all of the structured finance transactions described in the report. At a briefing today, Levin said he believed Goldman Sachs executives weren’t truthful about the company’s transactions in testimony before the subcommittee at an April 2010 hearing. He said he would refer the testimony to the Justice Department for possible perjury charges. “In my judgment, Goldman clearly misled their clients and they misled the Congress,” Levin said. With today’s release, the Senate panel completes a two-year investigation of mortgage firms, federal regulators and Wall Street banks highlighted by the expletive-laden interrogation of Goldman Sachs executives including Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Lloyd Blankfein a year ago this month. “Our investigation found a financial snake pit rife with greed, conflicts of interest, and wrongdoing,” Levin told reporters today. Levin and Senator Tom Coburn of Oklahoma, the panel’s top Republican, held four public hearings on the financial crisis last year, examining regulatory failures, the collapse of Washington Mutual Inc. (WAMUQ), the role of credit-rating firms in fueling bets on high-risk debt and the business practices of Goldman Sachs and rival investment banks. The Senate report also faults Deutsche Bank AG (DB), saying the Frankfurt-based company created a $1.1 billion CDO with assets that its traders referred to as “crap” and then attempted to sell “before the market falls off a cliff.”The subcommittee urged regulators to “identify any violations of law” in the investment-bank transactions described in the report.
Goldman(GS) Traders Tried to Manipulate Derivatives Market in '07, Report Says. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) mortgage traders tried to manipulate prices of derivatives linked to subprime home loans in May 2007 for their own benefit, according to a U.S. Senate report. Company documents show traders led by Michael J. Swenson sought to encourage a “short squeeze” by putting artificially low prices on derivatives that would gain in value as mortgage securities fell, according to the report yesterday by the Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations. The idea, abandoned after market conditions worsened, was to drive holders of such credit-default swaps to sell and help Goldman Sachs traders buy at reduced prices, according to the report. “We began to encourage this squeeze, with plans of getting very short again,” Deeb Salem, a trader in the structured product group, said in a 2007 self-evaluation excerpted in the report. Swenson, Salem’s supervisor, sent e-mails in May 2007 urging traders to offer prices that will “cause maximum pain” and “have people totally demoralized.”
Deutsche Bank(DB) Sold Mortgage-Linked 'Pigs' as Market Buckled, Lawmakers Say. Deutsche Bank AG (DBK), whose bets against subprime mortgages helped it weather the financial crisis, pressed to sell a $1.1 billion collateralized debt obligation to clients in 2007 as the co-head of its CDO team foresaw a market slump, a U.S. Senate panel found. “Keep your fingers crossed but I think we will price this just before the market falls off a cliff,” Michael Lamont, the group’s co-head, said in a Feb. 8, 2007, e-mail about Deutsche Bank’s Gemstone CDO VII Ltd., according to a report released yesterday by the Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations. The Frankfurt-based firm sold $700 million of the instruments, which lost most of their value within 17 months. The bi-partisan panel, led by Michigan Democrat Carl Levin, placed Germany’s biggest bank in a spotlight alongside Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS), saying that the firms’ creation and sales of mortgage-backed investments “illustrate a variety of troubling and sometimes abusive practices.” The “case study” also focuses on Greg Lippmann, Deutsche Bank’s then-top CDO trader, who led its bets against subprime home loans and described some Gemstone VII collateral as “pigs” and “crap.” “The bank sold poor quality assets from its own inventory to the CDO,” according to the report. Then “the bank aggressively marketed the CDO securities to clients despite the negative views of its most senior CDO trader, falling values, and the deteriorating market.” Deutsche Bank underwrote 47 CDOs with a combined value of $32 billion from 2004 to 2008, according to the subcommittee. It made $4.7 million in fees from Gemstone VII, the report said. About $27 million of the CDO’s assets came from the bank’s own inventory, including one bond that Lippmann referred to by asking another trader in an instant message, “DOESNT THIS DEAL BLOW,” according to the report.
Libyan Rebels Seek $2 Billion From Allies, Tarhouni Says. Libya’s opposition said it is discussing with allies the possibility of borrowing $2 billion in order to import food, medicine, fuel and possibly weapons to combat Muammar Qaddafi’s forces. “The short term loans is an option on the table that we discussed with our friends” at a conference today in Qatar, Ali Tarhouni, the National Transitional Council’s finance minister said in an interview today in Benghazi. The borrowing may have a term of as long as two years and would be backed by Libyan assets frozen abroad, which could be used to reimburse the lenders once unlocked, he said. “We immediately are trying to access $2 billion and this number could rise,” he said. “We should be able to access these funds to import medicine, food, fuel, even armaments, but we are concentrating on the first ones.” The council needs reserves of commodities and medicine to help areas “liberated from Qaddafi,” Tarhouni said. The rebels’ transitional government is pressing the international coalition, led by the U.S., that has joined its struggle against Qaddafi to step up support.
BRICs Leaders Say Increasing Commodity Prices Pose Threat to Global Growth. The leaders of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, meeting at a summit in China, said rising prices for commodities pose a threat to global growth. “Excessive volatility in commodity prices, particularly those for food and energy, poses new risks for the ongoing recovery of the world economy,” the leaders said, according to a draft copy of the communique that was given to Bloomberg. “The international community should work together to increase production capacity.” Chinese President Hu Jintao and the other BRICS leaders also called for “more attention to the risks of massive cross- border capital flows,” and said the International Monetary Fund should continue to look to overhaul the role of Special Drawing Rights as an international reserve currency system.
AIG(AIG) Hires Juhas From Morgan Stanley(MS) to Head Insurer's Strategic Planning. American International Group Inc. (AIG) hired Morgan Stanley’s Peter Juhas, a banker who spent the past three years advising the U.S. government on its $182.3 billion bailout of the insurance company. Juhas worked on the Morgan Stanley team that advised the U.S. Treasury Department on its bailouts of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae beginning in 2008. When the Federal Reserve Bank of New York bailed out AIG later that year, it hired Morgan Stanley (MS) as its adviser on a restructuring of the insurer. As the Fed’s adviser, Morgan Stanley worked on AIG divestitures including the $16.2 billion sale of the American Life Insurance Co. unit to MetLife Inc. The role also positioned Morgan Stanley to be one of four lead bookrunners for the $20.5 billion initial public offering of AIG’s biggest Asian unit. The Treasury, which took part in the AIG bailout, plans to dispose of its 92 percent stake of AIG stock through public offerings to recover its investment. Juhas has also been advising the Treasury, AIG said.
NYSE(NYX) Said to Consider Special Dividend to Boost Support for Deal. NYSE Euronext is considering the payment of a special dividend to shareholders to help persuade them to back a takeover by Deutsche Boerse AG, according to a person familiar with the matter. The payment would be made prior to the merger, according to the person, who declined to be identified because the discussions are private. A stock buyback is another option being considered to convince owners to back the Deutsche Boerse deal instead of the unsolicited offer from Nasdaq OMX Group Inc.(NDAQ) and IntercontinentalExchange Inc.(ICE), the person said.
JPMorgan(JPM) Credit Swaps Show Bank's Record Profits Fail to Impress. Record earnings from JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) failed to improve its creditworthiness in the eyes of swaps traders, as reduced provisions for bad mortgages accounted for almost half of its profit. Credit-default swaps on the second-biggest U.S. bank by assets, which investors use to hedge against losses or to speculate on creditworthiness, climbed 0.2 basis point to 71.7 basis points, according to CMA. “One of the reasons they did very well is they released a lot of reserves,” said Jason Brady, a managing director at Thornburg Investment Management Inc. in Santa Fe, New Mexico. The firm oversees $73 billion of assets, including stocks and bonds from both companies. “That doesn’t mean they’re making tons of money, it just means they’re not losing it,” Brady said. Contracts protecting the debt of Bank of America Corp., the largest U.S. lender, climbed 0.5 basis point to 129.8 and those on Morgan Stanley increased 0.5 basis point to 137, according to CMA, which is owned by CME Group Inc. and compiles prices quoted by dealers in the privately negotiated market. Swaps on Citigroup Inc. added 0.1 basis point to 119.4 and contracts on debt issued by Goldman Sachs Group Inc. gained 1.1 basis points to 111.3.
Apple(AAPL) is Said to Ready Sale of White iPhone After 10-Month Wait. Apple Inc. (AAPL) will begin selling a white model of the iPhone 4 in the next few weeks after a 10- month delay, according to three people familiar with the plans. The new version will be available from AT&T Inc. and Verizon Wireless by the end of April, said one of the people, who asked not to be identified because the plans aren’t public. Adding a white model to the black-only lineup may help spur demand before Apple can release the next generation of its top- selling product. Apple, the world’s largest technology company by market capitalization, isn’t planning to unveil a new iPhone at its June developers’ conference, the occasion for previous launches, two people familiar with the matter said. It may instead introduce the next iPhone in September, according to Mike Abramsky, an analyst at RBC Capital Markets in Toronto.
Glencore Seeks $11 Billion IPO as Goldman(GS) Says Flee Commodities. Glencore International AG is poised to start this year’s largest initial public offering as Goldman Sachs Group Inc. urges a retreat from commodities and IPO investors shun the U.K. market. The Swiss commodities trader may announce its IPO in London today, said three people with knowledge of the sale, who declined to be identified because the plan is private. Glencore’s London offer will account for about 75 percent of the IPO as it seeks to raise $9 billion to $11 billion to list in the city and Hong Kong, one of the people said. Goldman said this week the risks of investing in commodities outweigh potential gains, dropping its recommendation to buy a basket of raw materials including crude oil, copper, cotton and platinum. Three companies have shelved plans for a London IPO this month as Europe’s debt woes and a nuclear crisis in Japan sap investor demand.
Computer Network Used in 'Massive' Crime Scheme Targeted by U.S. Agencies. More than 2 million computers worldwide were infected with malicious software in a “massive fraud scheme” that the U.S. disabled as part of a criminal investigation, the Justice Department said. The department filed a civil complaint, criminal seizure warrants and issued a temporary restraining order in coordinated action with Microsoft Corp. (MSFT), which issued a software patch yesterday to correct a vulnerability in its Windows operating system. The vulnerability allowed the software to spread from one computer to another creating a so-called botnet. The action was aimed at software called Coreflood, which collects passwords and financial information that was used by criminals, the Justice Department said in a statement today. The group of computers infected with Coreflood, known as the Coreflood botnet, is suspected by the U.S. of operating for almost a decade and infecting more than 1.8 million computers in the U.S. alone. “The scale of the botnet is huge,” said Don Jackson, the director of intelligence at Dell Secureworks, a cyber security firm that said it first discovered Coreflood.
Euro Nearing 20% Overvalued May Weaken to Below $1.40: Chart of the Day. The euro may fall below $1.40 after recent gains made it close to 20 percent overvalued in terms of purchasing power, according to Mizuho Corporate Bank Ltd. The CHART OF THE DAY shows how much euro-dollar exchange rates have deviated from purchasing power parity, a measure of the cost of goods relative to other countries, in the past 10 years. The euro reached $1.4520 on April 12, the highest since Jan. 14 last year and widening the difference from purchasing power to about 18 percent. “The euro reached its peak in the past 10 years when it was roughly 20 percent overvalued relative to PPP,” said Daisuke Karakama, a market economist at the unit of Japan’s second-largest financial group. “The euro will no longer remain the sole winner of the euro-dollar currency pair.” The U.S. is rapidly approaching an exit from quantitative easing, Tokyo-based Karakama said, and the euro may drop below the $1.40 level. The shared currency traded at $1.4449 as of 8:24 a.m. in Tokyo. The European Central Bank raised interest rates for the first time in almost three years on April 7. Another rate increase seems inevitable by the middle of this year, Karakama said, though demands for lower borrowing costs by indebted nations in the currency union may forestall increases in the second half.
Copper tube usage in China may grow at a slower pace this year as government incentives end and high prices cut demand, according to Golden Dragon Precise Copper Tube Group Inc., China's biggest maker. Consumption of copper tubes, used mainly in air conditioners, is expected to expand by less than 10%, compared with more than 30% growth in each of the past two years, said Liu Xinyu, a manager at the trading unit of the company in Shanghai. "Demand is stable but we're definitely not going to see the explosive growth of 2009 and 2010, when there were many subsidies in place to boost consumption," Liu said. "By now, those who wanted a new air conditioner would have already bought one and the replacement cycle isn't so quick," said Liu. "Higher prices are also hurting demand." China's appliance makers may raise product prices because of inflation, GF Securities Co. said.
Wall Street Journal:
U.S. Says Iran Helps Crackdown in Syria. Iran is secretly helping Syrian President Bashar al-Assad put down pro-democracy demonstrations, according to U.S. officials, who say Tehran is providing gear to suppress crowds and assistance blocking and monitoring protesters' use of the Internet, cellphones and text-messaging. At the same time, communications intercepted by U.S. spy agencies show Tehran is actively exploring ways to aid some Shiite hardliners in Bahrain and Yemen and destabilize longstanding U.S. allies there, say U.S. officials familiar with the intelligence. Such moves could challenge interests of the U.S. and Saudi Arabia and inflame sectarian tensions across the Middle East, they say. "We believe that Iran is materially assisting the Syrian government in its efforts to suppress their own people," said an Obama administration official.
U.S. Asks if Banks Colluded on Libor. U.S. investigators are examining whether some of the world's biggest banks colluded to manipulate a key interest rate before and during the financial crisis, affecting trillions of dollars in loans and derivatives, say people familiar with the situation.
Remembering the Real Ayn Rand by Don Luskin. The author of "Atlas Shrugged" was an individualist, not a conservative, and she knew big business was as much a threat to capitalism as government bureaucrats.
The Presidential Divider. Did someone move the 2012 election to June 1? We ask because President Obama's extraordinary response to Paul Ryan's budget yesterday—with its blistering partisanship and multiple distortions—was the kind Presidents usually outsource to some junior lieutenant. Mr. Obama's fundamentally political document would have been unusual even for a Vice President in the fervor of a campaign.
Teenage Wasteland: Jobless Rate for Young Is 25% - And Rising. A quarter of teenagers were jobless in March, representing a surprising increase from February, even as the unemployment rate for the rest of the population decreased.This figure may only get worse if budget-strapped states raise the minimum wage, and it could also be a sign of greater structural damage underlying our economy, analysts said.
Read Korea Times' Brutal Op-Ed On Tokyo's and Seoul's Handling of the Fukushima Crisis. The Fukushima nuke plant disaster is not in the headlines much, but the crisis rages on, and Japan's neighbors are getting furious. For a taste, read this brutal op-ed in Korea Times called Chernobyl Redux?, that blasts the attitude towards the crisis in Tokyo and Seoul.
Mexican Cartels Are Moving to the U.S. Members of Mexico's drug trafficking organizations are increasingly moving their families to the United States, according to an alert from the National Drug Intelligence Center, obtained by the Mexican paper El Universal. The alert warns that the shift has led to growing threat of violence along the southwest border, and says U.S. security agencies are now starting to seek information on the identities of members of Mexican crime groups who are living or frequently traveling in the U.S.
$38 Billion in Cuts? Make That $353 Million. Warning: people on blood pressure medication are urged not to read this.Yesterday the media had a field day when it was uncovered that the hard fought $38 billion in budget "cuts" which almost caused America to shut down were in reality $14 billion. We, thus, can't wait to find out what the response will be when it is uncovered that the actual cuts were... $353 million.Yes: the ongoing functioning of the government was a pawn in a soap opera whose benefit to the US debt is $353 million, or about what Goldman's trading desk makes in less than one day. From Washington Post:
Hedge Fund Manager Is Prominent in Mets Picture. For weeks, Steven A. Cohen, the billionaire hedge fund manager, has been a mysterious figure in the drama of the Mets, and their financially and legally beleaguered owners.
Forbes:
Massive Identity Theft With Help From The IRS. Someone has hijacked the tax identity of more than 2,300 tiny or defunct nonprofits, apparently taking advantage of a hole in a new electronic Internal Revenue Service filing system to list the same person as a charitable official at the same mail box drop in Las Vegas.
US Mac Sales Grow 9.6% in Q1 2011 as Rest of Market Drops 10.7%. Apple's line of Mac computers saw great success in the U.S. in the first quarter of calendar 2011, growing 9.6 percent from 2010, while the rest of the American market fell 10.7 percent and netbook maker Acer tumbled 42.1 percent.Apple earned an 8.5 percent total share of the U.S. PC market, selling an estimated 1.375 million units in the first quarter of 2011, according to research group IDC. Apple's market share was well up from the 7 percent it saw in the first quarter of 2010. Sales for the top company, HP, slid 2.4 percent from 2010, while Dell sunk 11.8 percent. HP represented 27 percent of sales, while Dell took 23.1 percent. Coming in at fifth, Acer tumbled a whopping 42.1 percent, garnering an 8.3 percent share of the market with 1.331 million units sold. Acer and its line of low-cost, low-power netbooks have struggled since Apple introduced the iPad last year. Worldwide, PC sales were down 3.2 percent year over year. HP and Dell were No. 1 and No. 2, respectively as well, though both saw their total sales dip from a year ago. HP commanded 18.9 percent of the market, while Dell took 12.8 percent in the first quarter of calendar 2011. "The U.S. and worldwide PC market continues to work through a difficult era that we expect will continue into next quarter, but will start to improve in the second half of the year," said Bob O'Donnell, program vice president with Clients and Displays at IDC. "Slower than expected commercial growth in the first quarter failed to offset the ongoing challenges in the consumer market. While it's tempting to blame the decline completely on the growth of media tablets, we believe other factors, including extended PC lifetimes and the lack of compelling new PC experiences, played equally significant roles."
23% Say U.S. Heading in Right Direction. Twenty-three percent (23%) of Likely U.S. Voters say the country is heading in the right direction, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey taken the week ending Sunday, April 10. That's down one point from last week. Since President Obama assumed office in January 2009, confidence in the nation’s current course has ranged from a low of 22%, reached a month ago, to a high of 35% measured in early April 2009. Sixty-nine percent (69%) of voters now say the country is heading down the wrong track. Since January 2009, pessimism about the country's direction has ranged from 57% to 72%. Most Republicans (86%) and voters not affiliated with either major political party (71%) believe the United States is heading down the wrong track. Among Democrats, 38% say the country is heading in the right direction, while 51% say it's heading down the wrong track.
More Americans Leaving Workforce. The share of the population that is working fell to its lowest level last year since women started entering the workforce in large numbers three decades ago, a USA TODAY analysis finds. Only 45.4% of Americans had jobs in 2010, the lowest rate since 1983 and down from a peak of 49.3% in 2000. Last year, just 66.8% of men had jobs, the lowest on record. The bad economy, an aging population and a plateau in women working are contributing to changes that pose serious challenges for financing the nation’s social programs. “What’s wrong with the economy may be speeding up trends that are already happening,” says Marc Goldwein, policy director of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a non-partisan group favoring smaller deficits.
Telegraph:
China Inflation Threat Underestimated. China is poised to become an "exporter of inflation to the rest of world", according to Legal & General Investment Management (LGIM), which warned that the threat from rising prices in the world's second-biggest economy is underestimated. While many commentators suggest Chinese price rises are peaking, Mr Coulton believes that Beijing is not on top of inflation – expected to come in at 5.5pc for March – which threatens a more painful tightening process to rein in prices than many expect. "This means rising risk to the country's macroeconomic stability and of growth falling from the current 10pc a year to 4pc or 5pc," Mr Coulton said. If China's economic growth does halve as feared, it could have serious implications for the global recovery. Lending has been expanding rapidly, while wage inflation is rising as cities find the pool of cheap labour from the countryside is not infinite. In addition, measures from Beijing to rein in prices are running into difficulties, LGIM believes. Banks are "getting around" lending quotas with off-balance sheet transactions, which see loans repackaged as investment products. Mr Coulton also argued that China's 3pc increase in banks' reserve ratio requirement over recent months – upping the amount of money they must sit on in proportion to deposits – should not be viewed as monetary tightening. He believes the strategy is only just managing to offset the impact of China's interventions to keep its currency weak to support its exporters.
Banks Facing $3.6 Trillion 'Wall of Maturing Debt', IMF Global Financial Stability Report Says. Many European banks need bigger capital cushions to restore market confidence and help reduce the risk of another financial crisis, according to the IMF's report, published on Wednesday. Banks around the world are facing a $3.6 trillion "wall of maturing debt" coming due in the next two years, and the rollover requirements are most acute for Irish and German banks, the report said. "These bank funding needs coincide with higher sovereign refinancing requirements, heightening competition for scarce funding resources," the IMF said. Government debt was generally high and on a worryingly upward path in many advanced economies, the IMF said. It repeated its warning that the United States and Japan faced particularly dangerous debt dynamics. Advanced economies were "living dangerously" with high debt burdens, and faced the difficult task of trying to pare deficits without choking off the economic recovery. The most pressing challenges in the coming months will be funding of banks and sovereigns, particularly in vulnerable euro area countries, it said. US banks built up capital buffers in 2009, when regulators completed a set of stress tests that revealed some large holes. But European banks still need to raise a "significant amount of capital" to regain access to funding markets, the fund said. European banks won't be able to obtain all the necessary capital from markets, and public money may have to fill some of the gaps, it added. Banks could also cut dividend payouts and retain a larger portion of earnings. The IMF said banks' exposure to troubled sovereign debt is "uncertain," which adds to the funding strains.
Yonhap News:
North Korea has been holding a Korean-American man, in his 60's, since November for being involved in missionary work in the country, citing people in Orange County, California, where the man is from.
Korea Economic Daily:
North Korea plans to develop an oil field with China, citing a personal familiar with the plan.
21st Century Business Herald:
The southern Chinese city of Shenzhen may announce new measures to curb home prices, citing a real estate developer. The local government may fix price caps on new homes without presale permits and may stop presale of luxury homes. The move would like reduce average prices for homes in the government presale database.
China Securities Journal:
China is likely to raise banks' reserve requirement ratios in the "near future," the China Securities Journal said in a front-page commentary. More interest rate increases this year will be needed to curb inflation, the commentary said.
Evening Recommendations Citigroup:
Rated (PMT) Buy, target $21.
Night Trading
Asian equity indices are -.50% to unch. on average.
Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 107.0 unch.
Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to fall to 380K versus 382K the prior week.
Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 3705K versus 3723K prior.
The Producer Price Index for March is estimated to rise +1.0% versus a +1.6% gain in February.
The PPI Ex Food & Energy for March is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.2% gain in February.
Upcoming Splits
None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
The Fed's Duke speaking, Fed's Kocherlakota speaking, Fed's Plosser speaking, Fed's Tarullo speaking, Fed's Lacker speaking, $13 Billion 30-Year Treasury Bond Auction, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index, (BBY) analyst day, (TLVT) investor day, (HGSI) analyst meeting and the (ACN) analyst conference could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by financial and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.
North American Investment Grade CDS Index 94.74 -.80%
European Financial Sector CDS Index 94.06 +12.20%
Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 165.75 bps +2.10%
Emerging Market CDS Index 197.66 +.30%
2-Year Swap Spread 16.0 -1 bp
TED Spread 23.0 -1bp
Economic Gauges:
3-Month T-Bill Yield .05% +1 bp
Yield Curve 273.0 -2 bps
China Import Iron Ore Spot $181.90/Metric Tonne unch.
Citi US Economic Surprise Index +29.60 +1.1 points
10-Year TIPS Spread 2.62% -1 bp
Overseas Futures:
Nikkei Futures: Indicating -16 open in Japan
DAX Futures: Indicating +23 open in Germany
Portfolio:
Higher: On gains in my Medical, Tech and Biotech sector longs
Disclosed Trades: Covered all of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and then added them back
Market Exposure: 75% Net Long
BOTTOM LINE: Today's overall market action is mildly bullish as the S&P 500 trades slightly higher despite rising energy prices, emerging market inflation fears, financial sector weakness and rising eurozone debt angst. On the positive side, Gaming, Networking, Disk Drive, Computer, Software and Coal shares are especially strong, rising more than 1.0%. Tech shares have outperformed throughout the day and leadership is improving in the sector. Lumber is rebounding +3.76%. The Japan sovereign cds is falling -3.44% to 85.18 bps. On the negative side, Oil Tanker, Defense, Steel, Telecom, Bank, I-Banking, Insurance, Homebuilding, Education and Airline shares are lower on the day. (XLF) has been heavy throughout the day. The Transports are also relatively weak. Copper is falling another -1.88% and oil is rising +1.09%. The US price for a gallon of gas is up +.02 today to $3.81/gallon. It is up .69/gallon in 57 days. Despite near-record gas prices, refinery utilization plunged 3.0% this week to 81.4% which is a very depressed level. The Gasoline Crack Spread is currently 29.05, the highest level since May 2007. The 10-year TIPS spread is maintaining recent gains. The Bloomberg Autos Anchored Index continues to surge, rising another +4.8% today, and is now at the highest level since August 2009. The US dollar continues to trade very poorly, notwithstanding today's mild bounce. The Spain sovereign cds is rising +4.39% to 220.25 bps, the Portugal sovereign cds is gaining +2.68% to 574.82 bps, the Italy sovereign cds is gaining +3.37% to 135.10 bps, the Belgium sovereign cds is jumping +2.63% to 127.12 bps, the UK sovereign cds is gaining +2.11% to 53.33 bps and the Greece sovereign cds is surging +4.02% to 1,104.53 bps. The Greece sovereign cds is now at a new record high. Energy/Foods prices have not declined nearly enough yet to help sustain a strong broad equity market advance from current levels. Tomorrow's March PPI will likely exceed estimates of +1.0%, which could pressure equities in the morning. One of my longs, (AAPL), is trading much better the last 2 days despite some negative analyst commentary regarding their forward guidance during the upcoming earnings call. I still see significant upside in the shares from current levels over the longer-term. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-lower into the close from current levels on more shorting, Mideast unrest, rising eurozone debt angst, rising energy prices, emerging markets inflation fears, profit-taking and Japan concerns.
