Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Less Eurozone Debt Angst, Euro Bounce, Technical Buying, Short-Covering

Broad Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  
• Sector Performance: Every Sector Rising
  
• Volume: About Average
  
• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• VIX 18.35 -8.20%
  
• ISE Sentiment Index 123.0 +1.65%
  
• Total Put/Call .90 +2.27%
  
• NYSE Arms .62 -30.13%
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 96.03 -3.31%
  
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 107.96 -6.34%
  
• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 220.0 -1.49%
  
• Emerging Market CDS Index 224.99 -2.72%
  
• 2-Year Swap Spread 26.0 -1 bp
  
• TED Spread 22.0 -1 bp
  

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .02% unch.
  
• Yield Curve 260.0 +2 bps
  
• China Import Iron Ore Spot $171.90/Metric Tonne -.87%
  
• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -98.70 +.8 point
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.20% +3 bps
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating +100 open in Japan
• DAX Futures: Indicating +40 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my Retail, Biotech, Medical and Tech longs
  
• Disclosed Trades: Covered all of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, covered some of my (EEM) short and added to my (AAPL) long
  
• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

BOTTOM LINE: Today's overall market action is very bullish as the S&P 500 bounces strongly off its 200-day moving average to session highs, despite eurozone debt angst, global growth concerns, emerging market inflation fears and higher food prices. On the positive side, Road & Rail, Education, Gaming, Construction, HMO, Hospital, Wireless, Networking, Disk Drive, Computer, Software, Internet, Paper, Steel, Ag, Oil Service, Energy and Coal shares are especially strong, rising more than +2.0%. Small-Caps and Cyclicals are outperforming again. The Transports are outperforming again as they move back to their 50-day moving average. Copper is rising +.42%. Oil is down -.15% despite the large equity rally and bounce in the euro, which is a large positive. The Spain sovereign cds is plunging -9.65% to 263.61 bps, the Italy sovereign cds is dropping -3.42% to 170.0 bps, the Portugal sovereign cds is dropping -4.29% to 750.0 bps, the Greece sovereign cds is falling -5.81% to 1,907.67 bps, the Ireland sovereign cds is falling -5.58% to 731.06 bps, the Russia sovereign cds is falling -5.09% to 141.53 bps and the Belgium sovereign cds is declining -5.83% to 145.67 bps. Weekly retail sales rose +3.9% versus a +3.7% gain the prior week. On the negative side, Tobacco, Drug and Utility shares are underperforming, rising less than +.50%. The UBS-Bloomberg Ag Spot Index is +1.01%. The US price for a gallon of gas is -.01/gallon today to $3.64/gallon. It is up .50/gallon in less than 4 months. India's Sensex continues to trade very poorly, only bouncing +.3% last night, and is now down -14.4% ytd. Today's rally is fairly high in quality with the exception of only average volume. As I speculated yesterday, the bulls have gained upside traction with US stocks still technically oversold and holding their 200-day moving averages, gauges of investor sentiment mostly depressed and a likely short-term positive catalyst coming from Greece. US stocks should build on today's sharp gains over the coming weeks. One of my longs, (AAPL), is finally surging today after a recent string of losses. The stock is absurdly cheap now. I continue to see substantial upside in the shares over the intermediate to longer-term. I expect US stocks to trade modestly higher into the close from current levels on short-covering, bargain-hunting and technical buying.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• European Stocks Advance Most in Two Months Before Greek Vote. European stocks climbed the most in two months amid speculation that Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou will win a confidence vote that moves the nation a step closer to avoiding a default. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose 1.4 percent to 269.59 at the 4:30 p.m. close in London, the biggest gain since April 20. Since its peak on Feb. 17, the gauge has still tumbled 7.4 percent as U.S. economic data trailed forecasts, adding to concern about Europe’s debt crisis. The measure’s valuation fell to 12.6 times its companies’ reported earnings yesterday, the cheapest since 2008, according to Bloomberg data. “There is optimism that the moves Papandreou has made will be sufficient enough to get the vote passed,” said Andrea Williams, who helps manage about 600 million pounds ($970 million) at Royal London Asset Management. “It’s one hurdle at a time for Greece. Spain’s bond issuance also seems to have gone ok which is also helping the market.”
• Sovereign Credit Swaps Decline Ahead of Greece Confidence Vote. The cost of insuring European sovereign and corporate debt fell on speculation the Greek government will pass a confidence vote tonight that will help it avert an imminent default. The Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe Index of credit- default swaps on 15 governments dropped 9 basis points to 215 at 12:06 p.m. in London. Swaps on Greece dropped 119 basis points to 1,883, according to CMA. Default swaps on Ireland declined 26 basis points to 735, Portugal fell 14 to 754 and Spain dropped 10 to 277, while Italy narrowed 6.5 to 169.5 and Belgium was 5.5 lower at 146.5. Contracts on the Markit iTraxx Crossover Index of 40 companies with mostly high-yield credit ratings decreased 5 basis points to 406, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. The Markit iTraxx Europe Index of 125 companies with investment-grade ratings fell 2 basis points to 109.25 basis points. The Markit iTraxx Financial Index linked to senior debt of 25 banks and insurers decreased 2 basis points to 159 and the subordinated index declined 3.5 to 284.5.
• Economic Slump Sends U.S. Stock 'Buy' Signal: Chart of the Day. U.S. economic reports are poised to stop disappointing investors so often and start sending stocks higher, according to Tobias Levkovich, Citigroup Inc.’s chief U.S. equity strategist. The CHART OF THE DAY displays the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index, which Levkovich used to reach his conclusion in a June 17 report. The index is based on the relationship between the past three months of economic data and the average estimates of economists surveyed by Bloomberg. This month, Citigroup’s index dropped to minus 117.2, its lowest level since January 2009. The reading followed a three- month, 215-point plunge. The gauge fell more than two standard deviations below its historical average, which showed just how far away it was from the norm, the report said. “When the surprise index is that low, the stock market does have a tendency to generate strong returns” during the next six to 12 months, Levkovich wrote. Since 1998, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index averaged a six- month gain of 4.4 percent when the economic gauge was below the two-standard-deviation threshold, according to the report. For 12 months, the average increase was 15 percent. Stocks rose in 79 percent and 87 percent of the periods studied, respectively. Technology and raw-material stocks rose most consistently along with automakers, retailers and other companies dependent on consumers’ discretionary income.
• U.S. Existing Home Sales Hit Six-Month Low. Sales of existing U.S. homes decreased in May to the lowest level in six months, a sign that the housing market is lagging other parts of the economy. Purchases of existing homes fell 3.8 percent to a 4.81 million annual pace last month, in line with the 4.8 million median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of economists, data from the National Association of Realtors showed today in Washington. Preliminary figures showing a jump in contract signings suggest May will prove to be the weakest sales month of the year, according to the group’s chief economist.
• Crude Oil Fluctuates in N.Y. on Brent, Fuels Drop, Greek Confidence Vote. Oil fluctuated in New York as Brent crude and products tumbled and on speculation that Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou will win a confidence vote today. Futures climbed as much as 1.6 percent before erasing their gains as heating oil and gasoline dropped for a third day amid speculation that diesel fuel demand fell as supplies rose.Oil for July delivery fell 37 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $92.89 a barrel at 12:51 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures have advanced 19 percent in the past year.
• JPMorgan(JPM) to Pay $153.6M to Settle CDO Probe. JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM), the only Wall Street bank to remain profitable throughout the financial crisis, agreed to pay $153.6 million to resolve U.S. regulatory claims over its role in designing and selling a product linked to risky mortgages as the housing market unraveled in 2007. “Harmed investors will receive all of their money back,” the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission said today in a statement. In settling the SEC’s fraud claims against the New York-based firm, JPMorgan also agreed to improve the way it reviews and approves mortgage securities transactions.
• Brazilians Buy Miami Condos at Bargain Prices. Frederico Azevedo went to Florida looking for a second home. He left with three, paying $300,000 and $500,000 for condos in two Miami towers, and $1 million for a unit at the Trump International resort in nearby Sunny Isles. “I bought one to use as a vacation home and the other two as investments,” Azevedo, 39, president of Construtora Altana Ltda, a housing-development company, said in a telephone interview from his office in Sao Paulo. “It’s actually very cheap in Miami compared to here.” Surging real estate prices in Brazil and the currency’s 45 percent gain against the U.S. dollar since 2008 are sending Brazilians to South Florida in search of bargain vacation homes and property investments.

Wall Street Journal:

• German Banks Have Up To 20B Exposure in Greek Debt-Bank Association Chief. The exposure of German banks to Greek debt is estimated at between EUR10 billion and EUR20 billion, Michael Kemmer, the managing director of German banking association BdB, told German radio station Deutschlandfunk Tuesday. However, this figure doesn't include bonds held by German "bad banks" that hold toxic and non-core assets. Hypo Real Estate for instance holds around EUR7.4 billion in Greek bonds, while lender WestLB's bad bank EAA holds about EUR1.1 billion. With an estimated exposure of EUR2.9 billion, Commerzbank AG (CBK.XE) is considered a big Greece creditor among other German banks. Rival Deutsche Bank AG (DBK.XE) has an exposure of EUR1.6 billion, according to most recent information. The estimated total exposure of up to EUR20 billion also includes EUR8 billion from Germany's state-owned KfW bank - a sum that was part of a first rescue package for Greece and should actually not be attributed to the German banking sector, Kemmer said. BIZ, the Bank for International Settlements, on Monday estimated the exposure of German banks at $34 billion, or EUR23 billion, while French banks's exposure was estimated at around $57 billion.
• New Rule Proposed on Employers' Use of Union Consultants. The Obama administration Monday said employers should disclose more information about the consultants they hire to respond to union bargaining or organizing campaigns, a move long sought by organized labor and opposed by employers. The Labor Department's proposal hinges on the interpretation of "advice" stemming from the 1959 Labor-Management Reporting and Disclosure Act.
• Is Apple(AAPL) Becoming a Value Stock?
• Caterpillar's(CAT) Three-Month Sales Ending in May Up 52% > CAT. Worldwide retail sales of Caterpillar Inc.'s (CAT) construction machinery rose 52% in the three months to the end of May, as sales growth weakened against tougher year-ago comparison figures, according to dealer sales data released Monday. May was the 13th straight rolling three-month period of sales expansion for the world's largest seller of bulldozers, excavators and wheel loaders, as it rebounds from a steep decline in sales in 2009. During the April period, overall machinery sales increased 66% from a year earlier, and for the March period rose 61%. Dealer sales in North America climbed 54% during the May period, falling from a 65% increase reported in April and a 57% increase in March. U.S. construction activity, particularly new housing, remains doggedly sluggish, but the Peoria, Ill., company attributes the recent sales growth in the U.S. to the replacement of older machinery. Caterpillar dealers also have been updating their fleets of rental equipment.
  

MarketWatch:

• S&P Rises to First Major Technical Test.

CNBC.com:

• Buy Stocks in 'Fortress America': Hedge Fund 'Star'. (video)
• Why Delaying Greek Default Could Stop Contagion. With markets and political analysts beginning to say that a Greek default is unavoidable, continuing to delay the inevitable may be the best bet to avoid contagion into other Southern European countries, according to some market observers.

Business Insider:

• Ray Dalio's Flagship Fund is Up 11% And He's Making Money "In Every Asset Class". The last few months have not been pretty for some hedge funds, but Ray Dalio's $58.9 billion Bridgewater is flying.
• How to Follow Tonight's Big Greek Confidence Vote.

Zero Hedge:

• Goldman's(GS) Disinformation Campaign: Drilling Down into the Documents.
• Live Webcast from Syntagma Square, Greece: Summer Solstice/Vote of Confidence Edition.
  

cnet News:

• Analyst: Apple's iCloud Could See 150 Million Users. Apple could sign up as many as 150 million iPhone users to its new iCloud service, according to projections based on a survey from RBC Capital Markets.
  

Boy Genius Report:

• Apple(AAPL) iPhone 5 to be Major Update After All; Announcement and Availability in August? While Apple has indeed been giving some developers access to a device known as the iPhone 4S — an iPhone 4 with upgraded internals — BGR has independently confirmed that the next-generation iPhone will not merely be an upgraded iPhone 4 as had been previously rumored. We have been told by a reliable source to expect a radical new case design for the upcoming iPhone.

All Facebook:

• Job Screening Agency Archives Facebook Posts.

Reuters:

• Daimler CEO Warns of Rising Emerging Market Risks. Germany's Daimler (DAIGn.DE) warned of increasing economic risks in emerging markets such as China that could cause the auto industry's growth engine to sputter.
  
• Exclusive: Exchanges Want Delay in SEC's Naked Access Ban. The four main U.S. exchanges asked their regulator to delay new rules that would ban so-called "naked access" to markets, where brokers rent their IDs to unlicensed high-speed trading firms, according to a letter obtained by Reuters. NYSE Euronext, Nasdaq OMX Group, BATS Global Market and Direct Edge asked the Securities and Exchange Commission to delay the ban until November 30, according to the letter. The ban, agreed to shortly after last year's "flash crash," is to begin July 14.

USA Today:

• More Hotels Distribute iPads to Guests for Ordering Room Service, Amenities.

Financial Times:

• Hedge Fund Managers Braced for a Rough Ride. Hedge fund managers are preparing to enter the second half of the year with plenty to be bearish about – and not much, it seems, to make money from. A welter of macroeconomic shocks since the beginning of 2011 have dented portfolios for the big-name fund managers that trade the world’s economic balances. The month of May saw the average hedge fund lose 1.18 per cent, according to Hedge Fund Research. But the average global macro hedge fund – which tend to be the biggest and most celebrated in the industry – lost more than double that with a 2.38 per cent reverse. This year is shaping up to be the third in a row that global macro funds, specialising in bets on interest rates, sovereign bonds and currencies, have underperformed. And the list of those in negative territory is a roll-call of star names.

Sueddeutsche Zeitung:

• IMF acting head John Lipsky urged euro-area governments to stop bickering and agree on further aid for debt-strapped Greece, citing comments after a finance ministers' meeting in Luxembourg. Lipsky said yesterday it's essential to end the debate about restructuring quickly.
  

The Local:

• Big German/French Businesses Make Plea to 'Save the Euro'. Dozens of Germany's leading business executives have made an impassioned defence of Europe's common currency in a newspaper ad campaign urging angry taxpayers to look beyond the cost of bailouts to the benefits the euro. Bosses from 50 of Germany and France’s top companies, among them. Siemens, BMW, Deutsche Bank, ThyssenKrupp, EON and Daimler, joined the plea to stand firm with the embattled euro in advertisements carried in major newspapers on Tuesday under the headline, “The euro is necessary.”

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value (+1.03%)

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Tobacco -.18% 2) Utilities +.15% 3) REITs +.41%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• ECA, WAG, PSEC and FSC
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) WAG 2) SVU 3) HUN 4) LVLT 5) ECA
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) BKR 2) GM 3) MO 4) HSTM 5) FFIC
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume
  

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth (+2.21%)

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Coal +4.05% 2) Networking +2.71% 3) Computer +2.51%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• CMC, ROSE, CTSH, SNCR, BP, HES, EQIX, CVS, AFAM, HRBN, VRSN, NILE, RIMM, BODY, DEST, JVA, SCOR, SATS, RP, HOGS, WFM, USAP, ASTE, ARUN, GHDX, TIBX, BIIB, NJ, IJT, RFG, PEZ, CUK, RPG, PIQ, GLP, GNI, FEZ, KRO, GORO, BAS, PMC, SBGI, TEN, BSFT, DHX, RBCN, SATA, SPWRA, ANR, SCSS, IDT, HOC, ULTA, AMLN, HLX, LPS, MOS, PCLN, KSU, RHT, NILE, PKG, WLK, CRS, CCL, RP, TIN, ADSK and UA
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) MMI 2) LRCX 3) ATI 4) ADBE 5) ITT
  

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) BBY 2) BIIB 3) VZ 4) JCI 5) RTN
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume
  

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Papandreou Faces Confidence Vote. Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou faces a confidence vote in his government today that may determine whether Greece becomes the first euro-area country to default. Tonight’s vote caps a week of turmoil for Papandreou, who fended off a revolt from the ranks of his ruling socialist Pasok party in parliament last week. That came after opposition parties rejected his call for a national unity government. European Union leaders have insisted Papandreou secure multi- party support for austerity measures that are a condition of the aid needed to avoid default as soon as next month. “Pasok now knows it has to close ranks,” said Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Joh. Berenberg Gossler & Co. in London. “The situation is volatile. A negative vote by the Greek parliament could trigger a serious crisis in Europe.” The International Monetary Fund, contributor of a third of the bailout money for Greece, Ireland and Portugal, has warned European leaders that a failure to take decisive action on the debt crisis risks triggering “large global spillovers.” At the same time, Papandreou is struggling to convince Greeks to accept a 78 billion-euro ($112 billion) package of state-asset sales and budget cuts, which include a “crisis levy” on wages.
• Crude Oil Gains for Second Day as Concerns Over European Debt Crisis Ease. Crude oil advanced for a second day in New York as concern eased that Greece will default on its debt and disrupt the region’s economy. Futures advanced as much as 0.8 percent after Luxembourg’s prime minister, Jean-Claude Juncker, said Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou assured him the government would do everything to ensure financial aid. Oil also rose after technical indicators signaled prices may have declined too far. An Energy Department report tomorrow may show U.S. crude inventories fell for a third week. “There’s a little bit of optimism leading back into the market and the chances are that the Greece concerns will probably be solved some way,” said Jonathan Barratt, managing director of Commodity Broking Services Pty in Sydney, who predicted oil will average $100 a barrel this year. “We feel oil is due for a bit of a bounce.” Oil for July delivery rose as much as 74 cents to $94 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange and was at $93.77 at 11:12 a.m. Sydney time.
• Refined copper imports by China, the biggest user, are estimated to fall 32% this year from 2010, according to metals researcher Beijing Antaike Information Development Co. "We have cut our forecast from 2.4 million tons made at the beginning of this year to 2 million tons," said Antaike copper analyst Li Yusheng in a phone interview. "We think the destocking will continue." "Imports failed to climb up in a pickup of seasonal demand in April and May, and this isn't a good sign," Li said. "We think inventories at bonded and exchange warehouses can be further tapped to meet demand in the fall." Stockpiles at the bonded warehouse in Shanghai have fallen to around 400,000 tons from as much as 600,000 tons two months ago, while the historical average was around 200,000 tons, according to Li. Imports of refined copper fell 29% from a year ago to 756,199 tons in the first four months this year, customs data showed.
• Nuclear-Plant Operators May Be Tapped to Cover Safety Costs, IAEA Says. The United Nations nuclear watchdog is weighing whether nuclear-plant operators should be tapped to fill budget shortfalls needed to finance tougher atomic-safety reviews in the wake of Japan’s Fukushima Dai-Ichi meltdown.
• China stocks are likely to post a record stretch of monthly declines after government measures to fight inflation pushed down financial companies on the benchmark index to an all-time low relative to earnings. Banks and developers slid to a record 8.8 times estimated earnings in the week ended June 3, and were at 9.14 on June 17, Bloomberg data show. Non-financials are valued at 19.2 times estimated earnings, compared with a record low of 14.8 reached in October 2008. "When you rule out financial companies, Chinese stocks are actually not cheap and most of them are still way above their valuation bottoms," siad Li Jun, a strategist at Central China Securities Co. in Shanghai. "On the back drop of the government tightening liquidity, it's hard for valuations to expand so high-valuation stocks risk converging with low-valuation ones."
• China Money Rate Jumps to 4-Month High on Lull in Bills Due. The seven-day repurchase rate gained 83 basis points to 8.33 percent as of 11:32 a.m. in Shanghai, according to a weighted average rate compiled by the National Interbank Funding Center. It touched 8.50 percent earlier, the highest level since Jan. 31.
• More of the U.S. corn crop will be used to fuel cars than feed animals for the first time during the marketing year that starts in September, the Agriculture Department projects. The proportion of the harvest going to ethanol has almost quadrupled since 2002. The share will reach 40% in the current marketing year and be close to that level in 2011-2012. "For egg, poultry and beef producers, their largest cost has doubled because of this policy," Coburn, an Oklahoma Republican, said on June 16.
• Ponnuru: Too Much FDA Intervention Means Too Few Drugs. The Food and Drug Administration reports that the U.S. has shortages of 246 drugs -- a record number. Oncologists and anesthesiologists are increasingly concerned, with more than 90 percent of the latter saying they have experienced shortages. In a September 2010 survey, by the Institute for Safe Medication Practices, one in four respondents reported that shortages had caused medical errors during the previous year. More alarmingly, one in five reported adverse patient outcomes. Doctors have had to respond to shortages by substituting drugs that are not as effective, and by making wrenching decisions about which patients get access to which drugs. The consequences can be dire. Cytarabine is a drug that is effective in the treatment of leukemia and lymphoma -- but it has to be administered quickly, and it’s one of the drugs in short supply. One middle-aged woman reportedly fell into a persistent vegetative state because anesthesiologists ran out of epinephrine. There are also anecdotal reports of “gray markets,” which charge high prices for the affected drugs. What’s behind this shortage? Blame a combination of low profit margins and government activism.

Wall Street Journal:

• Change in China Hits U.S. Purse. For more than a decade starting in the early 1990s, U.S. inflation declined as low-wage workers in China and other developing nations joined the global economy and produced a tide of cheap goods that washed onto U.S. shores. The trend made American consumers feel better off and, by restraining the upward crawl of consumer prices, helped enable the Federal Reserve to fuel the U.S. economy with low interest rates. That epoch appears to be over. Prices of imported goods are climbing, becoming a source of inflationary pressure. A wide variety of common products made abroad, from shoes to auto parts to jewelry, are landing on U.S. docks with higher price tags. U.S. import prices, excluding oil, rose 8% over the past two years, a historic shift from their downward drift for two decades. The increase is bigger still when including oil
• SEC Scrutinizes Conoco(COP), Occidental(OXY). ConocoPhillips and Occidental Petroleum Corp. said they have received inquiries from the Securities and Exchange Commission related to their operations in Libya. ConocoPhillips spokesman John McLemore said the Houston oil company has received a request for information from the SEC and is cooperating fully. Occidental spokesman Richard Kline said in an email the company was "among the companies which received an information request regarding Libya from the SEC." The SEC declined to comment. A person familiar with the inquiries said the SEC is asking oil companies for any type of communications they held with the government of Col. Moammar Gadhafi since 2008. "It's a very broad inquiry for communications with the Libyan government," the person said.
• 'Guilty' for Expert Consultant. Another Win for Prosecutors as Jury Convicts Ex-Primary Global Worker of Fraud and Conspiracy.
• Fed Swap Lines Could Rise to Fore if Greek Contagion Spreads. Euro-zone banks could seek dollar funding from the Federal Reserve if the Greek debt crisis were to spread contagion throughout the financial system. In an echo of the 2008 global financial crisis, banks could need extra help from abroad and existing swap lines would be a useful backstop for banks to have, analysts said. Many bigger banks are presumed to be implicitly backstopped by their governments or central banks--and hence "too-big-to-fail." But the financial system as a whole may still need extra dollars to keep functioning smoothly. The European Central Bank has a swap line open with the Federal Reserve that allows it to borrow dollars from the U.S. central bank that can then be lent to euro-zone banks. The spread between three-month LIBOR and the Overnight Indexed Swaps (OIS) rate is the key data point in indicating stress and increased odds of that the ECB would have to tap the Fed swap line. A widening spread would signal that banks are increasingly unwilling to lend money to each other. Stone noted the spread is narrow at the moment, at about 13 basis points. That's well off the peak in the heart of the 2008 financial crisis of around 360 basis points, he said.
• Feds Sue Bankers Over Fall in Bonds. Federal regulators accused J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.(JPM) and Royal Bank of Scotland Group PLC of duping five large credit unions into buying more than $3 billion in mortgage bonds that were "destined to perform poorly," and that quickly sank the credit unions. The two civil lawsuits filed Monday in U.S. District Court in Kansas City, Kan., by the National Credit Union Administration are the most aggressive move yet by U.S. regulators to recover losses from Wall Street firms for alleged wrongdoing before and during the financial crisis.
• Lending Battle is Risky Business. Banks and other lenders are engaged in an increasingly pitched fight for some corporate borrowers, raising concerns among analysts and regulators that the banks aren't charging enough to cover the risk they are taking on. The battle to make loans, in contrast to the credit squeeze of recent years, is being driven by two factors: demand by investors for these loans and desire by banks to boost their revenues, which they have struggled to do recently.
• The Fiscal Pledge We Need: Cut, Cap, Balance. The U.S. debt is now above its current limit of $14.3 trillion, a figure so large that it is nearly impossible for the average American to comprehend. Under the budget proposed by President Obama for 2012, the debt would rise to $15.7 trillion in 2021. The annual interest alone would be about $700 billion, and that would only increase with inflation. President Obama's proposed budget was so excessive and fiscally irresponsible that it was voted down in the Senate 97-0. In spite of these facts, President Obama and Democratic leaders in Congress still want to increase the national debt limit without making meaningful spending cuts or reforms. This plan, a so-called "clean" increase in the debt limit, recently failed a House vote of 318-97. Every Republican and 82 Democrats voted against.

MarketWatch:

• Tsunami-Hit Japan Town Faces Recovery Frustration.

Business Insider:

• John Paulson Just Dumped All His Sino-Forest After Taking a Gigantic Bath. John Paulson, the billionaire hedge fund manager, has sold all his shares of Sino-Forest, the Chinese timber company whose shares have collapsed in the wake of fraud allegations, according to Bloomberg. Paulson had a huge holding that has scorched his returns for June -- he's reportedly down 13% this month alone (also in part due to wrongway bets on financials). Originally, Paulson defended the stock in the wake of allegations from short-selling research firm Muddy Waters, but the negatives keep piling up. This weekend a Canadian newspaper basically corroborated the claims made by Muddy Waters.
  

Zero Hedge:

• Presenting Obama's Latest $50,000 Non-Recourse, Interest-Free Gift to "Troubled" Homeowners.

IBD:

• Bridgepoint(BPI) Benefits As Fed Rules Relax.

Politico:

• House GOP Considers New Limits on Libya.
• Obama's 30th Fundraiser Tonight. The White House says President Obama isn't focused on his reelection campaign, but tonight he will headline his 29th and 30th fundraisers for the year. Mark Knoller of CBS News, tabulator of White House statistics, said Obama so far this year has raised money in six states plus Washington, D.C. and Puerto Rico. At the same point in former President George W. Bush's reelection cycle, he had done only three fundraisers, Knoller said.
  

USA Today:

• Hybrid Car Sales Stagnate as Buyers Opt for Fuel-Thrifty Compacts.

Telegraph:

• UK Treasury Plans for Greece to Go Bust. Treasury ministers have admitted that the Government is drawing up contingency plans for a Greek bankruptcy after being warned by a former foreign secretary that the euro “cannot last”.

La Tribune:

• European Union Energy Commissioner Guenther Oettinger said nuclear power will continue to play an important role in Europe's energy production in the coming decades, citing an interview.

Yonhap News:

• North Korea has recently bought tear gas, helmets and shields in volume from China.

Hong Kong Economic Times:

• U.S.-listed Chinese companies have fundamental flaws and suffer from mismanagement that have come to light because the credit system of their home country is "backward," Yi Xianrong, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, wrote in a commentary. These problems were exposed after the companies moved to a credit system that is based on the rule of law, he wrote.

China Finance:

• China should stick to a prudent monetary policy at the moment because consumer and asset prices may rebound if policy gets any looser, China Finance magazine said in an editorial. The nation still faces liquidity risks as banks' off-balance sheet businesses are growing rapidly, the editorial said. China should stay on high alert for imported inflation triggered by loose monetary policies in the world's major economies.

China Daily:

• The price of pork and live pigs rose to a record this month due to the rising cost of corn and labor, citing Feng Yonghui, chief analyst at Soozhu.com, a website that monitors the market. The price for live pigs rose to 18.57 yuan a kilogram by the end of the third week of June, exceeding the previous record set in April 2008, citing Feng. The price of pork rose to 27.67 yuan a kilogram last week, also exceeding a record set in 2008. Prices for pork and live pigs will continue rising until the end of this year, citing Zhu Baoliang, deputy director of the economic forecasting department at the State Information Center as saying. The price of corn, which makes up 60% of pig feed, is the "biggest force" fueling pork prices, citing Feng. Rising wages for workers also contributed.
• Industrial Bank Co. economist Lu Zhengwei said he expects China to raise interest rates in July. China should avoid an economic "hard landing," he said.
  

Evening Recommendations
CSFB:

• Reiterated Outperform on (AAPL), target $500.

Night Trading

• Asian equity indices are +.50% to +1.25% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 116.0 unch.
  
• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 119.0 +1.0 basis point.
  
• S&P 500 futures -.11%.
  
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.07%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (CMC)/.20
• (BKS)/-1.00
• (GRB)/.04
• (WAG)/.63
• (JEF)/.40
• (CCL)/.24
• (JBL)/.57
• (ADBE)/.51
• (AVAV)/.69

Economic Releases
10:00 am EST

• Existing Home Sales for May are estimated to fall to 4.8M versus 5.05M in April.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The weekly retail sales reports, Jeffries Consumer Conference, RBC Capital Mining/Materials Conference, Goldman Sachs dot Commerce Day and the (CBT) analyst day could also impact trading today.
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Short-Covering, Bargain-Hunting, Technical Buying

Broad Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Higher
  
• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  
• Volume: Below Average
  
• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• VIX 20.33 -6.96%
  
• ISE Sentiment Index 119.0 +26.60%
  
• Total Put/Call .90 -24.37%
  
• NYSE Arms .86 +1.37%
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 99.32 -.27%
  
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 117.58 +1.38%
  
• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 223.33 -.59%
  
• Emerging Market CDS Index 231.30 +.50%
  
• 2-Year Swap Spread 27.0 +1 bp
  
• TED Spread 23.0 +1 bp
  

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .02% unch.
  
• Yield Curve 258.0 +2 bps
  
• China Import Iron Ore Spot $173.40/Metric Tonne -.12%
  
• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -99.50 +2.4 points
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.17% -1 bp
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating +75 open in Japan
• DAX Futures: Indicating +36 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my Retail longs, Biotech longs, Medical longs and emerging market/commodity shorts
  
• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, covered some of my (EEM) short and added to my (SODA) long
  
• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

BOTTOM LINE: Today's overall market action is mildly bullish as the S&P 500 trade slightly higher despite rising eurozone debt angst, financial sector weakness, higher energy/food prices and ongoing weakness in some market leaders. On the positive side, Airline, Road & Rail, Retail, REIT, HMO, Medical Equipment, Software and Defense shares are especially strong, rising more than +.75%. Small-Caps and Cyclicals are outperforming. (IYR) is outperforming. The Transports have traded well throughout the day again. Lumber is rising +1.51%. On the negative side, Bank, Oil Service, Coal and Alt Energy shares are under mild pressure, falling more than -.50%. (XLF) has lagged throughout the day. Copper is down -.66%, the UBS-Bloomberg Ag Spot Index is +.56% and oil is rising +.3%. The 10-year yield is flat at 2.95% despite the rise in stocks. The US price for a gallon of gas is -.03/gallon today to $3.65/gallon. It is up .51/gallon in less than 4 months. The Greece sovereign cds is rising +4.86% to 2,019.01 bps, the China sovereign cds is jumping +6.31% to 82.04 bps, the Japan sovereign cds is surging +7.46% to 93.0 bps, the Russia sovereign cds is gaining +4.08% to 149.17 bps, the Egypt sovereign cds is gaining +4.85% to 316.75 bps and the Saudi sovereign cds is gaining +4.4% to 98.65 bps. The Shanghai Composite finished near session lows last night, falling another -.82% and is now down -6.7% ytd. India's Sensex also continues to trade very poorly, dropping another -2.04%, and is now down -14.6% ytd. Some key US stocks, continue to trade very poorly notwithstanding the recent bounce in the major averages. With US stocks still technically oversold near their 200-day moving averages, gauges of investor sentiment mostly depressed and a likely short-term positive catalyst coming from Greece, bulls could gain upside traction over the coming days. I expect US stocks to trade modestly higher into the close from current levels on short-covering, bargain-hunting and technical buying.