Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value (+.63%)

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver -4.40% 2) Agriculture -1.11% 3) Oil Service -.89%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• RIC, SLW, HPQ, CAVM, ACOM, OPTR, RGLD, SSRI, CRZO, MNRO, MAKO, GOLD, PAAS, AKO/A, TDW, CH, SLV, CRR and GTU
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) UUP 2) TBT 3) SLV 4) NTES 5) UBS
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) GR 2) NBR 3) TDW 4) SLV 5) RIMM
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume
  

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value (+1.49%)

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Airlines +3.34% 2) Education +3.19% 3) Homebuilders +2.79%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• SNP, DB, RMBS, YOKU, PTR, UBS, FINL, NFLX, CPHD, SLXP, ALXN, PNM and NKE
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) KBH 2) SLM 3) SLV 4) KGC 5) ACN
  

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) FEIC 2) CPHD 3) AWK 4) RDA 5) NKE
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume
  

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Greece on Edge of Biggest Insolvency 24 Centuries After First City Default. History’s first sovereign default came in the 4th century BC, committed by 10 Greek municipalities. There was one creditor: the temple of Delos, Apollo’s mythical birthplace. Twenty-four centuries later, Greece is at the edge of the biggest sovereign default and policy makers are worried about global shock waves of a insolvency by a government with 353 billion euros ($483 billion) of debt -- five times the size of Argentina’s $95 billion default in 2001. “There is a monstrously large amount of uncertainty and a massive range of possibilities,” said David Mackie, chief European economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in London. “A macroeconomic disaster could be averted but only by aggressive policy action” by central banks and governments.
  
• Constancio Says Sustained ECB Bond Buying Would Delay Fiscal Fix. European Central Bank Vice President Vitor Constancio said sustained bond purchases by the central bank would only delay the fiscal adjustments that euro- area governments need to make. “The secondary market purchases are not, and cannot be used to circumvent the principle of budgetary discipline as a pillar of Economic and Monetary Union,” Constancio said at an event in Frankfurt last night, according to a text of his speech published by the ECB. “Sustained buying of government paper by the central bank would only postpone problems and delay the necessary fiscal adjustments, ultimately resulting in a build-up of inflationary pressures.” The comments underscore the ECB’s reluctance to continue buying the bonds of distressed euro-area governments to contain a sovereign debt crisis that’s now threatening to engulf Italy and Spain. He said the tensions are “in some respects” more broad- based than those seen in May last year, when Greece’s fiscal meltdown prompted the ECB to enter bond markets for the first time. “It is clear that sovereign debt challenges in individual euro-area countries -- no matter their size -- can undermine the stability of the euro area as a whole,” Constancio said.
• France's BNP, SocGen Beat Retreat as Europe Debt Crisis Deepens. BNP Paribas (BNP) SA and Societe Generale SA, France’s two largest banks, are trimming about 300 billion euros ($405 billion) off their balance sheets as Europe’s deepening debt crisis threatens to make them too big to save. At the end of March, French financial firms had $672 billion in public and private debt in Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Italy and Spain, according to Basel, Switzerland-based Bank for International Settlements. That’s the biggest exposure to the euro-area’s troubled countries and almost a third more than German lenders. The four largest French banks have 5.9 trillion euros in total assets, including loans and bond holdings, or about three times France’s gross domestic product. “The banks are entering a slimming cure, which is forced by the sovereign crisis,” said Jerome Forneris, who helps manage $10 billion, including the two French lenders, at Banque Martin Maurel in Marseille, France.
• Global Stocks Enter Bear Market as Debt Crisis Outweighs Profits. Stocks fell, pushing the MSCI All- Country World Index of 45 nations into a bear market for the first time in more than two years, after the worsening European debt crisis and threat of a U.S. recession erased more than $10 trillion from equities since May. The MSCI index has lost more than 20 percent since peaking on May 2, meeting the common definition of a bear market, after slipping 4.5 percent to a 13-month low of 277.38. The MSCI World Index of shares in developed nations also fell into a bear market yesterday, plunging 4.2 percent. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index reached the 20 percent threshold on Sept. 13.
• Barton Biggs Says Recession Worries Make Equities Too Risky. Bets that stocks will gain make up 20 percent of Traxis Partners LLC’s holdings, down from as much as 85 percent six months ago, as the threat of a recession makes equities too risky, according to founder Barton Biggs. “I wish I was minus 20,” Biggs said during an interview today on Bloomberg Television’s “Street Smart” with Matt Miller and Carol Massar. “I wish I was zero. I don’t think any place is a place to invest.” “If we’re going into a global double-dip, corporate earnings projections for the U.S. and Europe are way too high,” Biggs said. “So there are major revisions coming.” S&P 500 earnings are poised to reach a record $99.34 a share this year, according to the average analyst estimate in a Bloomberg survey. Analysts are more optimistic about earnings since the S&P 500 peaked at a three-year high on April 29, driving their forecast up from $98.73 a share that day.
• BofA(BAC) Suit May Be 'New Front' in Mortgage Suits, Lawyer Says. Bank of America Corp. is among a group of lenders that may face a wave of new lawsuits claiming the system they've used for more than a decade to register mortgages cheated cash-strapped counties out of millions of dollars. Dallas County District Attorney Craig Watkins said state attorneys general and county officials across the U.S. have expressed interest in his lawsuit against Mortgage Electronic Registration Systems Inc. and Bank of America, filed in Texas state court on Sept. 21. Dallas County could be owed as much as $100 million in filing fees, he said. “This is a big new front,” said Christopher L. Peterson, associate dean and professor at the University of Utah S.J. Quinney College of Law. “This case is scary because if Dallas wins then there are a lot of other counties around the country that are going to follow.”
• CFTC May Alter Dodd-Frank Speculative Trading Limit CME Opposed. U.S. derivatives regulators may pull back from a January proposal setting speculation limits that CME Group Inc. (CME) said would reduce spot trading on the world’s largest futures exchange, according to a person briefed on the discussions. The proposal, issued under the Dodd-Frank Act by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, aimed to curb speculation by limiting the portion of the derivatives market controlled by any one trader.
• Crude Heads for Biggest Weekly Decline in Almost 2 Months as Markets Slump. Oil in New York headed for the biggest weekly decline in almost two months as investors speculated that fuel demand will falter amid a plunge in financial markets and signs of a weakening global economy. Futures were little changed after sliding 6.3 percent yesterday to a six-week low. Crude oil for November delivery was at $80.55 a barrel, up 2 cents, in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 9:15 a.m. Sydney time. The contract yesterday slid $5.39 to $80.53, the lowest settlement since Aug 9. Prices are 8.3 percent lower this week and down 12 percent this year. Brent oil for November settlement fell $4.87, or 4.4 percent, to $105.49 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange yesterday, the lowest since Aug. 9.
• China's Banking Regulator Evaluates Trust Loans to Developers. China’s banking regulator is looking into financing of developers through trust companies as part of a broader evaluation of real estate lending, a person familiar with the matter said. The inquiries by the China Banking Regulatory Commission are part of regular monitoring and aren’t targeting any individual company, said the person, who declined to be identified because the regulator’s queries were meant to be private. Chinese property developers led by Greentown China Holdings Ltd. plunged in Hong Kong trading yesterday on concern tightened access to loans will force them to cut prices. Greentown said it hasn’t received any notice following a Reuters report that the banking regulator ordered trust companies to report dealings with the developer. “Given that the nature of trust loans is short term, the key question would be whether or not developers have sufficient cash to repay the outstanding loan amounts,” Samsung Securities Asia Ltd. analysts led by Wee Liat Lee, said in a report today. “We believe that developers should be financially secure should the trust loans not to be rolled over.”
• Chinese Stocks to Extend Slump, Mizuho Securities Says: Technical Analysis. Chinese stocks, as measured by the MSCI China (MXCN) Index, may extend a slump that has made the nation’s equities the worst-performing among the so-called BRIC nations, according to technical analysis by Mizuho Securities Asia Ltd.The MSCI China, which mostly tracks Hong Kong-traded shares of Chinese companies, slid 6 percent yesterday to 50.12. The gauge may fall to between 36 and 45 “to complete the bear market,” Chris Roberts, a Hong Kong-based technical analyst, wrote in a Sept. 22 report. The index’s moving average convergence/divergence indicator, or MACD, had fallen below zero, which is “normally bearish,” the report said. “Given that for the past four years the October-November period has either marked a top or a bottom, we would be alert for at least an intermediate low in that time frame,” the report said. Mizuho will “most likely” recommend investors keep an “underweight” weighting on the MSCI China when it issues its next report in October, Roberts wrote. The MSCI China Index has tumbled 25 percent this year as the Chinese government stepped up measures to cool inflation that’s at the highest level in almost three years. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, which tracks 40 companies traded in Hong Kong, sank 28 percent. Benchmark indexes in Brazil, Russia and India have fallen between 18 percent and 23 percent this year. China’s Shanghai Composite Index, which is largely restricted to domestic investors, has slumped 13 percent in 2011. China’s stocks may extend declines in the fourth quarter as economic and corporate earnings growth slows and liquidity remains tight, Chen Li, head of China equity strategy at UBS AG, wrote in a report dated Sept. 21. Fourth-quarter profit may drop 7.7 percent from a year earlier as companies clear inventories, hurting margins, the report said.
• Worst Asia Currency Drop Since '97 Spoils Debt: Chart of the Day. The biggest monthly drop in Asian currencies since 1997 is prompting overseas investors to pull out of regional bonds, driving up yields. "Asia was considered a safe haven but recent foreign-exchange performance has caught the majority offside, both traders and corporates," Patrick Perret-Green, head of rates and foreign exchange at Citigroup Inc. in Singapore, said in an interview. "The risk remains for further redemptions." The Bloomberg-JPMorgan Asian Dollar Index slumped 4.3% this month, heading for its biggest loss since December, 1997, led by a 9.6% decline in South Korea's won.
• GE(GE) Put Ratio Surges to Highest Since 1997 as Growth Jeopardized: Options. Options traders are the most bearish on General Electric Co. (GE) in 14 years, speculating its streak of quarterly earnings increases won’t survive Europe’s debt crisis and slowing global growth. The ratio of puts to sell shares versus calls to buy has climbed 11 percent in the past two months to 1.3, and was 1.33 on Sept. 15, the highest since October 1997 and the third- highest among Dow Jones Industrial Average companies, data compiled by Bloomberg show. United Technologies Corp. (UTX) and Honeywell International Inc. (HON), which compete with Fairfield, Connecticut-based GE, both have more calls than puts.
• Obama Takes Aim at Tax 'Targets,' Fires Blanks: Caroline Baum. Two weeks ago, President Barack Obama unveiled his $447 billion plan to put Americans back to work. Eleven days later, he told us how he’d pay for it: $1.5 trillion in tax increases over 10 years and $3 trillion in spending cuts -- on top of the $1 trillion already agreed to in last month’s Budget Control Act.
• RBA Says Banks Face Weaker Credit, Assets Than Pre-Lehman. Australian banks face slower credit growth and weaker asset quality than prior to the global credit crunch sparked by the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in 2008. While the nation’s lenders are better placed to cope with market shocks than three years ago, the proportion of non-performing assets on their balance sheets remains close to its recent peak, the Reserve Bank of Australia said in its financial stability review released today in Sydney. “The Australian banking system remains in a relatively strong condition compared with some overseas,” the RBA said. “Should conditions deteriorate materially, the effect on the banking system would occur from a somewhat weaker starting position on asset quality than had been the case at the beginning of the crisis.” Since the implosion of Lehman Brothers, the Australian banking system has increased capital levels, cut its reliance on short-term wholesale funding and made greater use of deposits as a source of funding, the RBA said in its half-yearly report. Even so, credit growth has slowed to the weakest since 1977 and house prices are weakening.

Wall Street Journal:

• Perry, Romney Go on Attack at Debate. Republican presidential front-runners Rick Perry and Mitt Romney, taking up where they left off in their last on-stage meeting, attacked each other over Social Security and health care in a televised debate Thursday, with the Texas governor on defense for much of the contest.
• U.S. Accuses Pakistan of Militant Ties. Mullen Calls Haqqani Network in Afghanistan a 'Veritable Arm' of Spy Service, as Frustration Breaks Out Into Open.

CNBC:

• Anthony Scaramucci: Chance of Recession Now 75%. According to top hedge fund manager Anthony Scaramucci, proprietary research from Skybridge suggests the economy is in trouble. In a live interview on CNBC'S Fast Money, Scaramucci says, "There’s now a greater than 75% chance that we’ll be in recession by the first quarter of 2012.”
• G20 Pledges to Support Banks, Short on Specifics. The world's major economies pledged on Thursday to prevent the euro zone's debt crisis from undermining banks and markets but announced no new specific measures to shore up confidence in the global economy. Under pressure from investors to show action, finance ministers and central bankers from the Group of 20 economies said they would take all steps needed to calm the stresses wracking the global financial system. "We commit to take all necessary actions to preserve the stability of banking systems and financial markets as required," the G20 said in a communique after a dinner meeting that focused on the European debt crisis.
• US Senators Eye October Action on China Yuan. A bipartisan group of U.S. senators on Thursday predicted the Senate would overwhelmingly pass a bill next month to crack down on China currency practices they blame for millions of lost American jobs.

Zero Hedge:

• The Unwelcome Impact of Interventionist Monetary Policy In The US.

NY Times:

• The War on Insider Trading: Market-Beaters Beware.
  

MediaBeat:

• Dish(DISH) and Blockbuster to Introduce Netflix(NFLX) Competitor Friday. The move for Dish to create a Netflix rival is hardly surprising. Dish acquired Blockbuster in a bankruptcy auction for $320 million back in April and a month later Dish CEO Joe Clayton said he wanted to “take a small piece of the pie from Netflix” when it came to streaming video.

BGR:

• UBS: iPhone's 89% Retention Rate Crushes Competition; Next Closest is HTC at 39%.

Washington Examiner:

• Soros Turns Up In Obama's LightSquared Imbroglio. As Republican lawmakers begin to dig into the White House's cozy relationship with a startup wireless company and the wealthy Democratic donor who owns it, a new character has appeared on the story's edges: liberal superdonor, conservative bete noire and controversial investor George Soros. Soros reportedly invested in the telecom company LightSquared through a hedge fund, and many of the nonprofits he finances have backed LightSquared in regulatory and policy disputes.

Reuters:

• ECB's Knot Admits to Chance of Greece Defaulting. A situation where Greece cannot pay back its public debt can no longer be excluded, European Central Bank Governing Council member Klaas Knot was quoted as saying on Friday. Until recently, European leaders have rejected any chance of Greece defaulting, but are moving slowly to allow for the possibility of this happening. Knot became the first euro zone central banker warning outright of the possibility of a Greek default. Asked by Dutch daily Het Financieele Dagblad about a Greek default, Knot admitted it was being studied. "It is one of the scenarios. I'm not saying that Greece will not go bankrupt," he was quoted as saying. "I've long been convinced that bankruptcy is not necessary. The news from Athens, however, is at times not encouraging." The Dutch central bank head, who entered office this summer in a controversial appointment, continued by saying European partners had worked hard to help Greece, but faulted the country for not understanding the gravity of the situation. "All efforts are aimed at preventing this, but I am now less certain in excluding a bankruptcy than I was a few months ago," Knot said, and continued by saying he wonders "whether the Greeks realize how serious the situation is." Olli Rehn, European Union Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner, said on Thursday European leaders will not allow an uncontrolled default of Greek debt and will not let the country leave the euro zone, but did not explicitly rule out the possibility of Greece defaulting, which many economists now see as inevitable. In a sign of a sharper tone from central bankers, an ECB study, co-authored by Executive Board member Juergen Stark, on Thursday warned the entire euro currency project was now in peril. The ECB announced last week Stark's resignation from the 17-country bloc's central bank. Sources have told Reuters he left because of his resistance to ECB's bond buying, which Knot also opposes.
  
• First Solar(FSLR) Says Plant to Miss U.S. Loan Deadline. First Solar Inc said it would not meet a deadline to receive a federal loan guarantee for a huge solar power plant it is building in California, sending its shares to their lowest level in more than four years. The announcement cast a spotlight again on the Obama administration's support of renewable energy, which have come under fire by Republicans since the collapse of solar company Solyndra after it won more than $500 million in backing from the Department of Energy. First Solar, which in June received conditional approval from the U.S. Department of Energy for a $1.9 billion loan guarantee to build the 550-megwatt Topaz plant, said it was unable to process all requirements under the department's loan program before the September 30 cutoff date.
• Analysis: Emerging Market Face Capital Exodus Again. A sell-off precipitated by global recession fears and the deepening euro zone debt crisis has resurrected the specter of capital flight, a threat that still haunts emerging markets for all their vaunted strengths.
• Nike(NKE) Sees Strong Worldwide Demand. Nike Inc staved off margin pressure in the first quarter with strong revenue and price increases, and said it was confident about its position among peers as it heads toward the winter holidays. The world's biggest athletic shoe and clothing maker topped Wall Street's profit and sales estimates, and its shares rose more than 5 percent in after-hours trading.
• U.S. Equity Funds See $4.6 Billion in Outflows - Lipper.
• Russia: BRIC Joint Aid to Eurozone Impossible, Unneeded. It is impossible and not necessary, at this time, for the world's largest developing economies to jointly provide support to the crisis-stricken euro zone, Russia's Deputy Finance Minister Sergei Storchak said on Thursday. "It's impossible, I am absolutely convinced about that," Storchak told journalists in a briefing on the sidelines of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank fall meeting. "Our state procedures do not allow for that. We don't have a mechanism (for that), not in Russia, not in China, not in India. We all have different ways of making decisions, we cannot syndicate our money." He also said that right now there is also no need for such a joint effort. "In the name of what? What for? I believe there is no need for that."

Telegraph:

• European Banks Head Towards Another Meltdown. Shares in some of Europe's largest banks fell by 10pc as the cost of insuring European lenders' senior bonds rose to record levels, according to credit default swap prices. The Markit iTraxx Financial Index of contracts on the senior debt of 25 banks and insurers climbed to an all-time high 315.5 basis points.
• The Great Euro Swindle. Very rarely in political history has any faction or movement enjoyed such a complete and crushing victory as the Conservative Eurosceptics. The field is theirs. They were not merely right about the single currency, the greatest economic issue of our age – they were right for the right reasons. They foresaw with lucid, prophetic accuracy exactly how and why the euro would bring with it financial devastation and social collapse. Meanwhile, the pro-Europeans find themselves in the same situation as appeasers in 1940, or communists after the fall of the Berlin Wall. They are utterly busted.

Le Figaro:

• Thomas Enders, chief executive officer of Airbus SAS, says public debt in Europe and the U.S. is agitating the financial markets and "one begins to fear that these problems can have an impact on the real economy," citing an interview.

Financial News:

• China's growing foreign exchange reserves are pushing up expectations for yuan appreciation, which results in more hot money inflows and increase of "bubble" risks, citing Zhang Yansheng, a researcher affiliated to the National Development and Reform Commission.

21st Century Business Herald:

• China's economy faces prominent contradictions and problems including rising raw material and fuel costs, funding constraints on small companies and yuan appreciation pressure, citing an industry ministry official. The country also faces higher wage costs and labor shortages, trade friction and an uncertain outlook for exports, Xiao Chunquan, deputy director of the economic operation and observation department at the Ministry Industry and Information Technology, was quoted as saying.

Evening Recommendations
William Blair:

• Rated (ALTR) and (XLNX) Outperform.

Night Trading

• Asian equity indices are -4.25% to -1.0% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 217.0 -6.5 basis points.
  
• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 156.75 -3.75 basis points.
• FTSE-100 futures +.69%.
  
• S&P 500 futures +.77%.
  
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.77%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (KBH)/-.15

Economic Releases

• None of note

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Dudley speaking, Fed's Williams speak, ECB's Trichet speaking and the IMF/World Bank Conference could also impact trading today.
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are sharply lower, weighed down by real technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Plunging into Final Hour on Rising Global Debt Angst, US Tax Hike Worries, Global Growth Concerns, Financial Sector Pessimism

Broad Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  
• Sector Performance: Every Sector Declining
  
• Volume: Heavy
  
• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• VIX 42.70 +14.63%
  
• ISE Sentiment Index 87.0 +3.57%
  
• Total Put/Call 1.22 -2.40%
  
• NYSE Arms 3.31 -16.29%
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 144.50 +7.85%
  
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 285.41 +9.30%
  
• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 353.93 +1.39%
  
• Emerging Market CDS Index 370.0 +7.54%
  
• 2-Year Swap Spread 32.0 +2 bps
  
• TED Spread 36.0 +1 bp
  

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .00% unch.
  
• Yield Curve 152.0 -14 bps
  
• China Import Iron Ore Spot $175.70/Metric Tonne -.57%
  
• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -41.0 unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.72 -16 basis points
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating -245 open in Japan
• DAX Futures: Indicating -11 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my Biotech, Medical, Tech and Retail sector longs
  
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, added to my EEM short and then covered some of them
  
• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

BOTTOM LINE: Today's overall market action is very bearish, as the S&P 500 breaks down through its recent support and is 16.0 points away from its Aug. 9th lows on rising Eurozone debt angst, US tax hike concerns, yesterday's disappointing FOMC commentary, rising financial sector pessimism, emerging markets inflation fears, margin selling, more shorting and global growth worries. On the positive side, Road & Rail shares are holding up relatively well, falling less than -2.0%. Oil is falling -6.0%, the UBS-Bloomberg Ag Spot Index is down -3.8% and Gold is down -3.9%. On the negative side, Coal, Alt Energy, Energy, Oil Service, Ag, Steel, Paper, Computer, Networking, Construction, Homebuilding and Education shares are under significant pressure, plunging more than -5.0%. Cyclicals are substantially underperforming again. The Morgan Stanley Cyclicals Index(CYC) is gapping substantially below its August 23rd low and is down -32.7% from its May 2nd high. The 10-year yield is falling too rapidly again, declining -14 bps to 1.71%. Copper is plunging -9.0% and Lumber is down -1.3%. Rice is still very near its multi-year high, rising +30.0% in about 11 weeks. The average US price for a gallon of gas is -.01/gallon today to $3.56/gallon. It is up .42/gallon in about 7 months. The Germany sovereign cds is gaining +5.19% to 104.67 bps, the Russia sovereign cds is soaring +23.0% to 289.0 bps, the Hungary sovereign cds is gaining +8.42% to 480.55 bps, the US sovereign cds is gaining +6.92% to 55.28 bps, the Israel sovereign cds is gaining +10.3% to 209.10 bps, the China sovereign cds is gaining +5.99% to 149.83 bps, the Japan sovereign cds is jumping +11.0% to 140.63 bps, the UK sovereign cds is gaining +8.20% to 94.85 bps, the France sovereign cds is surging +6.40% to 202.50 bps, the Italy sovereign cds is rising +2.62% to 536.67 bps, the Belgium sovereign cds is gaining +5.36% to 294.33 bps, the Brazil sovereign cds is gaining +16.0% to 214.82 bps and the Spain sovereign cds is jumping +1.53% to 438.33 bps. The Germany, France, Spain and Italy sovereign cds made new record highs today. The China sovereign cds is braking to the highest level since April 2009. The Brazil sovereign cds is surging to the highest since June 2009. The Russia sovereign cds is breaking out to the highest since Sept. 2009. The Western Europe Sovereign CDS Index and European Financial Sector CDS Index are again making all-time highs. The 2-Year Euro Swap Spread is breaking to the highest since December 2008. The TED spread is at the highest level since July 2010 despite Europe's recent efforts. The China Blended Corporate Spread Index is continuing its parabolic move higher, rising another +61.0 bps to 754.0 bps, which is the highest since March 2009. The Emerging Markets Currency VIX continues to surge, rising another 15.2% to 19.07. Hong Kong shares fell another -4.85% overnight and broke down through their recent lows, falling -22.2% ytd. Indonesian equities, which had been Asia's best performers, plunged -8.9% and are now down -9.02% ytd. As well, the major European equity indices fell -4.0 to -5.0% today and are right back to their recent lows. Various credit gauges continue to indicate intense global recession fears. Asia is rapidly becoming another large problem. The S&P 500 bounced right near its August low on rumors of a global response to the European debt crisis. I believe the situation in Europe must at least stabilize very soon or a full test and likely break of the August lows is likely. Moreover, given many hedge funds' affinity for commodities, more margin selling is likely over the coming days unless a game-changing solution to the current crisis is forthcoming. Commodities, in general, still have massive downside risk over the intermediate-term, in my opinion. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close from current levels on short-covering, technical buying, lower energy/food prices, a bounce in the euro and bargain-hunting.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Banks Denied Senior Bond Funding as Crisis Deepens: Euro Credit. It's been 2 1/2 months since a bank managed to sell a conventional bond in Europe's public markets, the longest period without a deal ever and another example of the sovereign crisis choking off funding. UniCredit SpA was the last non state-owned bank to issue senior, unsecured benchmark notes in Europe with a 1 billion- euro ($1.3 billion) sale on July 13, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That compares with deals worth 41.9 billion euros in the third quarter of last year. Banks are the biggest buyers of other lenders' bonds as well as debt sold by euro-region nations, and are being hurt by Greece's flirtation with default and proposed laws that would force their creditors to take losses before taxpayers. That's pushed the cost of selling bonds to within three basis points of the record reached in the aftermath of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.'s failure three years ago. "Senior unsecured at these levels is unsustainable," said Ben Bennett, a credit strategist at Legal & General Investment Management in London which oversees about $500 billion. "The real economy is being put under too much pressure. Every day things are getting wound tighter and tighter." The extra yield investors demand to hold banks' senior bonds instead of benchmark government debt has soared to 322 basis points, from 202 at the end of July, according to Barclays Capital's Euro Aggregate Banking Senior Index. The gauge reached an all-time high 325 basis points on Dec. 30, 2008.
• German, French Bond Risk Climb to Records on Slowdown Concern. The cost of insuring sovereign bonds jumped across Europe with credit-default swaps on France and Germany surging to records as the global economy slows. Contracts on Germany rose 13 basis points to 109, swaps on France jumped 16 to 205 basis points and Belgium, Italy and Spain also reached records, according to CMA prices at 5 p.m. in London. The Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe Index of debt swaps on 15 governments climbed eight basis points to an all- time high of 362 based on closing prices. Credit-default swaps on Germany have almost tripled from 39 basis points in July, while France is up from 80, CMA prices show. Contracts on Belgium surged 26 basis points today to 304, while Italy rose 14 to 536 and contracts on Spain climbed 7 basis points to 437, according to CMA. Swaps on Ireland increased 14 basis points to 817 and Portugal rose 46 to 1,184. The Markit iTraxx Crossover Index of swaps on 50 companies with mostly high-yield credit ratings rose for a fourth day, climbing 41.5 basis points to 846.5, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. That’s the highest since April 2009 and the biggest daily increase since Sept. 9, when the previous series of the index increased 59 basis points. The Markit iTraxx Europe Index of 125 companies with investment-grade ratings climbed 12.5 basis points to 199.5, near the highest since March 2009. Bank bond risk also soared, with the Markit iTraxx Financial Index of swaps on the senior debt of 25 lenders and insurers rising as much as 29 basis points a record 318, before paring the advance to 302. The subordinated-note gauge increased as much as 53 basis points to an all-time high of 555, before trading at 540.
• Euribor-OIS Spread Measure Rises to Highest Since March 2009. A measure of banks’ reluctance to lend to one another in Europe rose to the highest in 2 1/2 years after the Federal Reserve signalled “significant downside risks” to the U.S. economy. The Euribor-OIS spread, the difference between the three- month euro interbank offered rate and overnight index swaps, climbed to 85 basis points as of 3:45 p.m. in London, the highest since March 2009, Bloomberg data show. The gauge was at 82.6 yesterday. European banks have the highest dollar funding costs in almost three years, according to one indicator. The three-month cross-currency basis swap was 106 basis points below the euro interbank offered rate, from 99 basis points yesterday. The cost was 112.5 basis points under Euribor on Sept. 12, when the swap was the most expensive since December 2008. The TED spread, the difference between what lenders and the U.S. government pay to borrow for three months, rose to 36 basis points, the highest since July 20, 2010, from 35 basis points.
• Commerzbank Says Greek Default Poses Risk of 'Domino Effect'. European banks face the risk of a “domino effect” on debt markets were Greece to default, a Commerzbank AG executive said today. Institutions would be able to handle a Greek default, regardless of the level of bondholder losses and the bigger concern is how it would affect Spain, Portugal, Ireland or Italy, Markus Beumer, a member of the German lender's board of managing directors, said at a press briefing in Brussels. “We have no concerns to handle and to manage Greece, but what happens afterwards, nobody knows,” Beumer said.
• Indonesia Stocks Drop Most Since October 2008. Indonesia stocks plunged by the most since October 2008 as overseas investors cut holdings, while the rupiah rallied from a one-year low after the central bank said it will intervene to slow the currency’s drop. The Jakarta Composite Index sank 8.9 percent to 3,369.14 at the 4 p.m. local-time close as investors sold riskier assets amid concern global economic growth will slow. The gauge has tumbled 19.7 percent from a record high on Aug. 1.
• China Agrees Plan to Alter Resource Tax That May Cut Profit. China will levy a tax on resource producers based on the value and volume of their output, according to a statement on the government’s website, citing a decision from a State Council meeting presided over by Premier Wen Jiabao. The country will adjust tax ratios on crude oil and natural gas exploration, yesterday’s statement said, without giving details. A higher tax will likely cut profits of oil explorers including PetroChina Co. and coal miners including China Shenhua Energy Co. The government has proposed increasing resource taxes nationwide to fund development of the nation’s western regions, which contain oil, gas and coal reserves. f a tax of 5 percent of production by value is implemented, and assuming coal prices are unchanged, Chinese coal producers’ earnings will be cut by 9 percent to 23 percent, according to Lau.
• Real's Plunge Triggers Intervention Reversal: Brazil Credit. The real's biggest five-day plunge since 1999 prompted Brazil to use derivatives to shore up the currency, reversing a 28-month-old strategy aimed at stemming gains. Brazil's currency tumbled as much as 4 percent against the dollar today before the central bank auctioned swaps that are equivalent to selling dollars in the futures market, helping the real erase losses. The real has lost 8.4 percent since Sept. 14, handing investors in real-denominated bonds a loss of 13.5 percent in dollar terms this month through yesterday, the worst performance in emerging markets, according to data compiled by JPMorgan Chase & Co. Speculation is mounting that the real's slide may deepen, pushing up import prices and adding to the highest inflation rate in six years, if the central bank fails to provide dollars or deploy some of its $352 billion in reserves to defend the real. Concern policy makers' surprise rate cut last month signals they are giving up on their goal of slowing inflation is compounding the real's decline as Europe's debt crisis erodes demand for emerging-market assets. "The central bank is signaling it's uncomfortable with the current foreign-exchange rate," said Carlos Thadeu de Freitas Gomes Filho, chief economist with Franklin Templeton Investments in Brazil. "Other measures to defend the real may come."
• Goldman(GS) May Report Q3 Loss: Barclays. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) will probably report a third-quarter loss as market tumult prevents the bank from generating a profit for only the second time in 12 years as a public company, Barclays Capital analysts estimated. Goldman Sachs may lose 35 cents a share in the three months ended Sept. 30, down from a prior estimate of $2.40 in earnings per share, the analysts, led by Roger Freeman, said in a note to clients today. They cut their earnings-per-share estimate for Morgan Stanley to 12 cents from 43 cents. Declines in asset prices will cause losses on some of Goldman Sachs’s principal investments, which include stakes in companies and real estate, the analysts wrote. Trading revenue and investment banking fees have also been reduced amid falling equity and credit markets and concerns that the European sovereign debt crisis is worsening.
• Europe Services, Manufacturing Industries Shrink for First Time Since 2009. Euro-area services and manufacturing output shrank for the first time in more than two years in September as the region’s worsening debt crisis added to concerns that the economy could slide back into a recession. A composite index based on a survey of purchasing managers in both industries fell below 50, indicating contraction, for the first time since July 2009, London-based Markit Economics said in an initial estimate today. The index fell to 49.2 this month from 50.7 in August, a deeper slide than the drop to 49.8 that economists had forecast, according to the median of 17 estimates in a Bloomberg survey.
• Copper Tumbles Most Since January 2009 on Signs of China, U.S. Slowdown. Copper fell the most since January 2009 in New York and headed into a bear market in London after a China factory index signaling contraction added to speculation of slowing metals demand. A preliminary index of China purchasing managers was 49.4 this month, according to HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics. A reading below 50 indicates contraction. Copper has dropped 22 percent this year as Europe’s debt crisis and the possibility of another U.S. recession hampered metals demand. In the last U.S. recession, copper fell 54 percent in 2008.
• Initial Jobless Claims in U.S. Fell Last Week. More Americans than forecast filed first-time claims for unemployment insurance payments last week as the labor market struggled to improve. Applications for jobless benefits decreased 9,000 in the week ended Sept. 17 to 423,000, Labor Department figures showed today. Economists forecast 420,000 claims, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey. The four-week moving average, a less-volatile measure, climbed to 421,000 from 420,500. The number of people continuing to collect jobless benefits fell by 28,000 in the week ended Sept. 10 to 3.73 million. Those who’ve used up their traditional benefits and are now collecting emergency and extended payments decreased by about 103,350 to 3.5 million in the week ended Sept. 3.

Wall Street Journal:

• Ex-Eu Trade Commissioner Mandelson: Greek Debt Writedown, Restructuring Inevitable. Some writing down and hopefully orderly restructuring of Greek debt is "inevitable," former European Commissioner for Trade Peter Mandelson said Thursday.
• Whitman Expected to Get HP(HPQ) CEO Nod After Markets Close.
• Bad Stock Market, Bad News for John Paulson. Right about now, John Paulson is probably hoping this is one of those things-will-get-worse-before-they-get-better moments. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has kept falling since the hedge-fund star reaffirmed his stock-market bullishness earlier this week.

Business Insider:

• It's Official - Pakistan is Behind the Recent Afghan Attacks Against U.S. Troops.
• Dow Briefly Cuts Loss on Headlines About Europeans Recapitalizing 16 Banks.
• The Sad State of Work in America: The Young Sit Idle, The Elderly Work Forever. (graphs)
• Only 45% of Independent Voters Would Even Think About Voting For Obama Again.
  

CNN:

• Libya Military Site Yields Possible Radioactive Material. A military site containing what appears to be radioactive material has been uncovered by revolutionary forces near the southern Libyan city of Sabha. Military forces loyal to the country's National Transitional Council took a CNN crew Thursday to the site, not far from Sabha in the Sahara desert. The crew saw two warehouses there, containing thousands of blue barrels marked with tape saying "radioactive," and two or three plastic bags of yellow powder sealed with the same tape. The material has not been confirmed as being radioactive, but the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the United Nations' nuclear watchdog agency, confirmed Thursday that the Libyan government had yellowcake stored near Sabha.

Handelsblatt:

• Kenneth Rogoff, a former chief economist at the IMF and now an economics professor at Harvard University, said the biggest risk to the eurozone at present is a run on southern European banks. In an interview with the newspaper, Rogoff said people may move their deposits to banks in safer countries such as Germany. A sovereign debt restructuring in some euro area states shouldn't be "a taboo," Rogoff said.
• The Greek government's additional savings efforts are set to intensify the country's crisis as they will hit the Greek people and probably alienate them, Gustav Horn, the director of Germany's IMK economic institute, said in an interview.
  

Boersen-Zeitung:

• The euro is unlikely to survive debt and economic crises and may not exist in 10 years because it is increasingly being influenced by politicians, investor Jim Rogers said in an interview.

Les Echos:

• BNP Paribas SA and Societe Generale have stopped lending to aircraft purchasers because of difficulties in obtaining dollar refinancing. Airbus SAS may be affected more than Boeing(BA), which has easier access to credit in the U.S.

Capital.gr:

• PIMCO: French Banks Could Tip Europe Back Into Recession. The chief executive of the world's largest bond investment fund, Pimco, warns in the Financial Times Thursday that French banks could tip Europe "into a full-blown banking crisis that aggravates the sovereign debt trap, renders certain another economic recession, and significantly worsens the outlook for the global economy." In an opinion piece, Mohamed El-Erian says Europe must move quickly to stabilize its banks "at its core in ways that go far beyond what the European Central Bank announced on Wednesday."

21st Century Business Herald:

• Chinese Banks Face Crisis as Deposits Plunge. Deposits at the big 4 state-owned banks, including Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd. (ICBC) (601398.SH, 1398.HK), Bank of China Ltd. (601988.SH, 3988.HK), Agricultural Bank of China Ltd. (601288.SH, 1288.HK) and China Construction Bank Corp. (601939.SH, 0939.HK) fell by about RMB 420 billion during the first 15 days of September from end August, reports China Securities Journal. The huge drop in deposits led to a significant decline in new loan growth by the big 4 banks during this period, with only RMB 87 billion of new loans extended. According to industry insiders, net outflows of deposits from banks usually occur during times of bullish stock markets. The current situation of high inflation, stagnant property market and sluggish stock market, could mean that the deposits may have been invested in wealth management products, trusts, art collections, or in the illegal lending sector. According to the report, bank employees in Wenzhou, Dongguan, and Fuzhou, had already withdrawn their deposits and had lent to illegal money lenders in the grey market at interest rates which are 10 times higher than the one-year deposit rate. Insiders said the high rates of return from the illegal lending sector may have led to approximately RMB 3 trillion of bank deposits being diverted to this sector. Due to the rapid fall in deposits, the daily average loan to deposit ratios of some small and medium-sized banks are close to, or have hit the regulatory limit of 75%. These banks are actively reducing the size of their loans in order to meet regulatory requirements for the loan to deposit ratio, and some of the smaller banks had utilized their loan quotas in the first few days of August, added a number of insiders from the banking industry. Large banks too suffered from the drop in deposits, with Bank of China lending only RMB 1 billion in the first half of September, while Agricultural Bank of China lent RMB 10 billion. During the same period, new loans granted by ICBC and China Construction Bank were RMB 50 billion and RMB 30 billion, respectively. In order to meet a deposit shortfall of RMB 100 million, a bank is offering customers rebates on seven-day deposits , said an insider.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth (-4.73%)

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Oil Service -8.31% 2) Steel -8.13% 3) Homebuilders -7.21%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• DBC, IYT, IWF, ZMH, AOL, RRC, HPQ, IOC, FCX, HES, SU, SLF, MBT, PWO, RPV, IHE, EEP, MTK, WF, NTL, DBV, XPH, KMX, CH, GSH, EMF, FDX, IWW, PXJ, GLBC, BMA, C, PRAA, FWRD, YNDX, AAWW, LUFK, AMAP, CVV, DXPE, SNDA, FSLR, MEOH, FMCN, HUBG, PWRD, GMCR, CRESY, DLLR, CTRP, ULTI, NIHD, GMCR, EWZ, MOS, CFX, MCP, FXI, TOL, EEM, EWT, EWW, EEP, VWO, BG, KMX, MS, CLF, EWY, ANR, WBC and BEN
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) NG 2) SUN 3) EWT 4) WFT 5) TEF
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) ANR 2) BTU 3) PBR 4) SLB 5) FSLR
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume