S&P 500 1,263.85 +.85%*
The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.
*5-Day Change
Friday, November 11, 2011
Weekly Scoreboard*
Indices
- S&P 500 1,263.85 +.85%
- DJIA 12,153.60 +1.42%
- NASDAQ 2,678.75 -.28%
- Russell 2000 744.64 -.25%
- Wilshire 5000 13,102 +.56%
- Russell 1000 Growth 590.09 +.35%
- Russell 1000 Value 623.97 +.95%
- Morgan Stanley Consumer 740.08 +1.12%
- Morgan Stanley Cyclical 915.44 -.08%
- Morgan Stanley Technology 639.03 -.18%
- Transports 4,977.98 +1.34%
- Utilities 452.91 +.39%
- MSCI Emerging Markets 40.31 -1.87%
- Lyxor L/S Equity Long Bias Index 979.72 +.56%
- Lyxor L/S Equity Variable Bias Index 844.06 +.66%
- Lyxor L/S Equity Short Bias Index 605.65 -2.43%
- NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 128,352 -.29%
- Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -215 -134
- Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 30.0 -6.25%
- CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 161,612 unch.
- CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,345,024 unch.
- Total Put/Call .93 -13.08%
- OEX Put/Call 1.72 +23.74%
- ISE Sentiment 69.0 -34.29%
- NYSE Arms .45 -60.87%
- Volatility(VIX) 30.04 -.40%
- S&P 500 Implied Correlation 76.80 -1.95%
- G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 12.99 +1.88%
- Smart Money Flow Index 10,845.93 +.58%
- Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.639 Trillion +.60%
- AAII % Bulls 44.74 +11.35%
- AAII % Bears 24.56 -17.08%
- CRB Index 320.20 -.07%
- Crude Oil 98.99 +4.82%
- Reformulated Gasoline 260.38 -3.11%
- Natural Gas 3.58 -6.10%
- Heating Oil 317.16 +3.30%
- Gold 1,788.10 +1.94%
- Bloomberg Base Metals 204.90 -3.86%
- Copper 348.30 -2.54%
- US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 401.67 USD/Ton unch.
- China Iron Ore Spot 137.70 USD/Ton +12.04%
- UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,530.16 -2.44%
- ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate -8.5% +90 basis points
- S&P 500 EPS Estimates (FY 2012 Mean) 109.22 -.34%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 34.30 +15.6 points
- Fed Fund Futures imply 0.0% chance of no change, 100.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 12/13
- US Dollar Index 76.94 -.01%
- Yield Curve 183.0 +2 basis points
- 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.06% +3 basis points
- Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $2.822 Trillion +.63%
- U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 47.23 +.57%
- Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 256.0 +.27%
- Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 340.65 +2.73%
- Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 279.33 +14.48%
- Saudi Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 118.10 +7.25%
- Iraqi 2028 Government Bonds 85.47 +.09%
- China Blended Corporate Spread Index 739.0 +30 basis points
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.09% -3 basis points
- TED Spread 46.0 +2 basis points
- 3-Month Euribor/OIS Spread 90.0 +2 basis points
- N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 129.17 +4.85%
- Euro Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 243.29 +7.25%
- Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 301.123 +6.59%
- CMBS Super Senior AAA 10-Year Treasury Spread 248.0 unch.
- M1 Money Supply $2.149 Trillion +1.09%
- Commercial Paper Outstanding 967.70 -1.20%
- 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 400,000 -1.30%
- Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 2.9% unch.
- Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.99% -1 basis point
- Weekly Mortgage Applications 734.30 +10.32%
- Bloomberg Consumer Comfort -51.6 +1.6 points
- Weekly Retail Sales +3.10% -160 basis points
- Nationwide Gas $3.44/gallon +.02/gallon
- U.S. Heating Demand Next 7 Days 17.0% below normal
- Baltic Dry Index 1,840 +1.26%
- Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 40.0 +14.29%
- Rail Freight Carloads 239,180 -1.88%
- Large-Cap Value +.95%
- Mid-Cap Growth -.60%
- Oil Tankers +8.72%
- Homebuilders +2.97%
- Road & Rail +2.38%
- HMOs +2.29%
- Retail +2.25%
- Gaming -1.81%
- Disk Drives -3.39%
- I-Banks -3.51%
- Alt Energy -3.67%
- Coal -5.83%
- ADPI, KITD, TRAK, TKLC, SKUL, FLT and SLRC
- MDCA, OPTR, JEF, TTWO, SGEN, KW, HOS, PSMT, SMG, OCN, WTW, LXU, IFF, STEC, WAC, DMND, BRLI, OPNT, NILE, PEGA, MFB and ROVI
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change
Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Euro Bounce, Short-Covering, Tech Sector Strength, Investor Performance Angst
Broad Market Tone:
- Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
- Sector Performance: Every Sector Rising
- Volume: Light
- Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
- VIX 29.97 -8.63%
- ISE Sentiment Index 70.0 -40.68%
- Total Put/Call .95 -18.10%
- NYSE Arms .46 -46.34%
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 129.17 +.21%
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 250.59 -2.58%
- Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 342.67 -1.32%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 301.23 -.18%
- 2-Year Swap Spread 45.0 unch.
- TED Spread 46.0 +1 bp
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield .00% unch.
- Yield Curve 182.0 +1 bp
- China Import Iron Ore Spot $134.80/Metric Tonne +2.15%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 34.30 +2.4 points
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.09 unch.
- Nikkei Futures: Indicating +75 open in Japan
- DAX Futures: Indicating +2 open in Germany
- Slightly Higher: On gains in my Tech, Retail, Medical and Biotech sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: Covered all of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my (EEM) short, then added some back
- Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long
Today's Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Italy Senate Passes Budget Measures. Italy’s Senate approved debt- reduction measures in an attempt to shore up investor confidence and pave the way for a new government that may be led by former European Union Competition Commissioner Mario Monti. The Senate in Rome voted today 156 to 12 to pass the package of measures promised to the European Union in a bid to boost growth and cut Italy’s debt of 1.9 trillion euros ($2.6 trillion), the world’s fourth biggest. Opposition lawmakers did not take part in the vote, allowing the bill to pass. The yield on Italy’s 10-year bond declined for a second day, shedding 43 basis points to 6.45 percent and narrowing the difference with German bunds to 456 basis points.
- Spanish Economy Stalled in Third Quarter as Borrowing Costs Rose to Record. Spain’s economy stalled in the third quarter, undermining the country’s efforts to shield itself from the sovereign debt crisis after Spanish and Italian borrowing costs surged to records. Gross domestic product was unchanged from the previous quarter, when it expanded 0.2 percent, the National Statistics Institute said today in an e-mailed statement in Madrid. The slowdown threatens Spain’s budget-deficit goals, the European Commission said yesterday, meaning the government that emerges from the Nov. 20 general election may have to accelerate spending cuts to prevent the nation becoming the next victim of the debt crisis. The economic figures “add to our view that Spain will struggle and is likely to fall back into recession, if not in the fourth quarter then early next year,” said Ben May, a European economist at Capital Economics in London. “We’ve got unemployment going above 25 percent.” The extra yield on Spanish 10-year bonds compared with German equivalents rose to 408.8 basis points today, from 408.6 yesterday. Spain pays 5.9 percent to borrow for 10 years, the highest since Aug. 5, even as the European Central Bank supports the market with bond purchases. It said the “emergence of a less favorable macroeconomic scenario” means the 2011 deficit will be 6.6 percent of GDP, instead of the 6 percent targeted. A cooling recovery will also postpone the reduction of a 23 percent unemployment rate, the European Union’s highest, and increase the relative weight of the nation’s debt burden, according to the commission.
- Oil Rises, Heading for Longest Run of Weekly Gains Since 2009. Crude for December delivery climbed $1.07, or 1.1 percent, to $98.85 a barrel at 11:15 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after increasing to $99.20, the highest intraday level since July 27. Brent oil for December settlement gained 89 cents, or 0.8 percent, to $114.60 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.
- MF Global's(MF) 1,066 Brokerage Employees Fired.
- Michigan Sentiment Index Rises. Confidence among U.S. consumers rose more than projected in November, offering additional support to the biggest part of the economy. The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary index of consumer sentiment climbed to 64.2 this month, the highest since June, from 60.9 in October. The median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News called for a reading of 61.5.
- GM(GM) Volt Fire Prompts U.S. Probe of Lithium Batteries. U.S. auto-safety regulators are scrutinizing the safety of lithium-ion batteries that power all plug-in electric vehicles after a General Motors Co. (GM) Chevrolet Volt caught fire, people familiar with the probe said. The regulators have asked automakers, including GM, Nissan Motor Co. and Ford Motor Co. (F), that sell or have plans to sell vehicles with lithium-ion batteries about the batteries’ fire risk, four people familiar with the inquiry said.
- Generation Jobless: What Hedge Funds Can Teach College Students.
- E*Trade to Launch Roughly 100 Commission-Free ETFs By Year End. E*Trade Financial Corp. (ETFC) plans to launch roughly 100 commission-free exchanged-traded funds by the end of 2011, in a move that matches similar steps taken by competitors the past few years.
- ECRI Weekly Leading Index Still Rising. (graph) The ECRI’s leading index rose to 122.3, its highest level since early September, while its rolling growth rate improved to -8.5% from -9.4% a week ago.
CNBC.com:
CBS News:
- UK Trade Body Eyeing Emerging Markets If Euro Zone Splits. A euro zone breakup would be challenging for British exporters but there would be still be export opportunities both in Europe and in emerging markets, the head of Britain's trade and investment promotion agency said on Friday. The British government is making contingency plans for a possible split in the currency bloc, including a study of its impact on private companies, Nick Baird, chief executive of UK Trade & Investment (UKTI), told Reuters in an interview.
- Spit the EU? Europe Debt Crisis Pushes Idea Into the Open.
- US Employer Health Insurance Hits New Low. The percentage of Americans who have health insurance through their employer slipped to a new low of 44.5 percent in the third quarter, a drop of more than 5 percentage points in three years, according to a new poll released Friday.
- MF Global(MF) Fallout: 'I will never do business in US again'.
- A Worrying Look at GE's(GE) Exposure To Italy.
- Yesterday At Occupy: A Suicide, A Murder And Reports of Tuberculosis.
- China Has Far More Beautiful Bridges Than The Economy Can Support.
- Regulation Fail: MF Global Used The Same Trick To Hide Debt As Lehman Used.
- Poll: Cain Tops 3-Way Race With Romney, Gingrich. The field of Republican candidates now has three candidates within striking distance of each other at the top of the list: with 18 percent, Herman Cain is in the top spot, followed by Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich with 15% each.
- Exclusive - Daimler CEO Casts Doubt On Greek Euro Membership. Automotive giant Daimler, a leading German exporter, is against keeping Greece in the euro zone at all costs and believes Europe's single currency will survive even if Athens is forced to return to the drachma. "It depends on how you define the word, but I wouldn't consider one link splitting off from the rest as a 'break-up' of the euro zone," Chief Executive Dieter Zetsche told Reuters in an interview at the company's headquarters in Stuttgart. "Creating one bailout fund after the other won't help if Greece economically cannot return to the level of the rest of Europe over the next 10 to 20 years."
- Banks to Dump Italian Debt: IFR. European banks are planning to dump more of the 300 billion euros they own in Italian government debt, as they seek to pre-empt a worsening of the region's debt crisis and avoid crippling write downs - a move that could scupper the European Central Bank's efforts to bring down soaring yields. With the ECB providing a bid for Italian bonds that might not otherwise exist, board members at some of Europe's largest bank say now is the time to accelerate disposals. Many are also reversing long-standing policies of buying into new Italian bond issues, denying Rome an important base of support. "Our traditional buying days are no longer," said one board member at a European bank, one of Italy's 10 biggest creditors, who added that the bank has also sold off previous bond purchases. "Unless there is more certainty on Italians changing direction, it will be very tough for them to find buyers." Banks are important creditors to Rome, having bought about 40 percent of the 22 billion euros Italy issued in euro-denominated syndicated bonds since 2009. According to the European Banking Authority, the region's biggest 90 banks held 326 billion euros of Italian debt at the end of last year. "You're better off doing it now rather than waiting," said one investment banker who is currently working on plans for bank clients to further sell down their Italian bond holdings. "It's better to take the losses now when everyone is expecting it rather than wait around for a default." The sheer volume of such sales will make it increasingly difficult for the ECB to keep Italian bond yields down. EBA stress tests showed that in December half of Italy's 10 biggest European bank creditors were foreign: BNP Paribas held 28 billion euros in bonds, Dexia 15.8 billion euros, Commerzbank 11.7 billion euros, Credit Agricole 10.8 billion euros and HSBC 9.9 billion euros. According to people close to some of the bank disposals, the efforts of the European authorities to ensure that a Greek debt restructuring would not trigger CDS payouts has driven much of the bond selling. Unable to confidently hedge their exposures, many are choosing to sell - even at a loss. Italian bonds still have one support bloc. Domestic banks appear to be holding on to their much larger holdings. As of last December, EBA stress tests showed Intesa Sanpaolo held 60 billion euros of Italian debt. UniCredit and Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena held 49 billion euros and 32 billion euros respectively. Recent results indicate that those holdings have changed little.
- Gold Rises on Italy, Europe Hopes, Tracks S&P. Bullion was on track for its third consecutive weekly gain, its longest winning streak since August, after Italy cleared the way for a full approval of the budget package and the formation of an emergency government to replace that of Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi. Spot gold rose 1.3 percent to $1,782.40 an ounce by 12:06 p.m. EDT (1706 GMT), on track to snap a three-day losing streak. U.S. December gold futures gained $24.10 to $1,783.70 an ounce. Trading volume was sharply lower than its 30-day norm as U.S. banks, federal government and the bond market are closed for the Veterans Day holiday. Silver rose 1.6 percent to $34.62 an ounce.
- While the eurozone could survive debt reorganization and exit by small countries such as Greece or Portugal, the same steps by Italy or Spain would effectively break the currency union, and that outcome looks increasingly likely, said Nouriel Roubini, an economist at NYU.
- Debt Crisis: Live.
- Political Deadlock Derails China's EU Aid Offer. Diplomatic deadlock is curbing China's will to provide cash to help end the eurozone crisis after Europe spurned the simplest of Beijing's three key demands, two independent sources have told Reuters.
- European Union officials are studying proposals under which only member countries with healthy economies could sell jointly issued euro bonds.
- China will face a "severe" external trade situation for a period of time as the global financial crisis continues to deepen, citing Vice Commerce Minister Zhong Shan.
Bear Radar
Style Underperformer:
- Large-Cap Value (+1.53%)
- 1) Telecom +.87% 2) I-Banks +1.35% 3) Energy +1.65%
- OPNT, BRLI, MMYT, SIRO, MATW, VCLK, MDAS, DMND, DDS and MCP
- 1) LOW 2) GLW 3) XLF 4) NVDA 5) MCP
- 1) PWR 2) BAC 3) ANF 4) BHI 5) CVX
Bull Radar
Style Outperformer:
- Small-Cap Growth (+2.65%)
- 1) Steel +4.25% 2) Oil Tankers +3.49% 3) Construction +3.48%
- TI, EQIX, SNCR, SREV, GMCR, SSRI, SPRD, BKS, DIS, CSC, WLK, MRK, JOE, MTZ, NOG, VIA/B, SFD and GTI
- 1) CY 2) ONNN 3) DIS 4) ATML 5) WTW
- 1) ALGT 2) GNW 3) TMO 4) DNDN 5) GWW
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