Friday Watch

Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:

• Investors Agree to Swap About 85% of Greek Debt. Private investors agreed to swap about 85 percent of their Greek government bonds for new securities in the biggest sovereign debt restructuring in history, according to a banker briefed on the results. Preliminary indications showed that as much as 155 billion euros ($205 billion) of the 177 billion euros of Greek-law bonds were offered, said the banker, who declined to be identified. Twelve billion euros of debt not under Greek law was also tendered, as was 7 billion euros of bonds from state-owned companies guaranteed by the government, the banker said.
• Greece's New Bond Yields May Reach 20% After Exchange, Morgan Stanley Says. Yields on Greece’s new bonds may climb to as high as 20 percent amid “material risks” stemming from implementation of terms for the biggest sovereign restructuring in history, according to Morgan Stanley. Traders are offering to buy and sell the potential new bonds at yields on 11-year securities of 22 percent, according to a person familiar with the prices who declined to be identified. Yields on exchanged Greek debt may be about 13 percent to 17 percent “in the medium term” as the nation faces an election and seeks to comply with terms of its bailout and debt-reduction programs, New York-based Morgan Stanley said yesterday in a research report.
• Draghi's Oil Dilemma Risks Exacerbating Recession: Euro Credit. ECB President Mario Draghi is trapped between accelerating inflation and slowing growth, making it hard for him to defend countries such as Italy and Spain from the ravages of recession. The central bank yesterday revised its inflation forecast for the euro area to an average rate of 2.4% this year, up from a December prediction for prices to rise by 2%. The new projections show the economy may contract .1%, down from a previous forecast for .3% growth. With at least six of the 17 euro nations in recession, the latest forecasts may mean Draghi, who cut interest rates at his first two monthly meetings as head of the central bank, won't be able to reduce borrowing costs further as efforts to resuscitate growth by lending unlimited funds to banks lose steam.
  
• China Should Maintain Property Curbs to Prevent Chaos, Developer Lo Says. China should maintain its property curbs as any relaxation may result in a “chaotic” housing market, said billionaire developer Vincent Lo, also a member of the government’s advisory board. Home prices may post a “single-digit” decline this year, said Lo, chairman of Shui On Land Ltd. (272), a Shanghai-based developer. Property values in the nation’s city centers will hold up, he said, adding that he doesn’t expect a property crash this year. “Unless something dramatic happens in the international economy, these more restrictive measures will remain for at least another 18 months,” Lo said. The nation’s developers will probably face more credit rating downgrades over the next six months as refinancing risks increase, according to Standard & Poor’s. Home prices may fall 10 percent by June from a year earlier, according to an S&P report yesterday that said “the worst is yet to come” for developers.
  
• China's Economy a Bigger Worry Than Yuan: Samual Sherraden. Domestic and foreign economic pressures are causing cracks to emerge. Domestically, over-investment and excess capacity weigh on China’s economy. The housing market is deflating and the local-government debt on banks’ balance sheets will limit future fiscal stimulus. Monetary authorities are constrained from further easing for fear of inflation. And China’s major export markets -- the U.S. and Europe -- are facing slow growth at best.
• Texas Instruments Cuts Forecasts on Lower Demand for Its Wireless Products. Texas Instruments Inc. (TXN), the world’s largest maker of analog semiconductors, reduced its first- quarter sales and profit forecasts, citing lower demand for products that let wireless devices connect and run applications. Revenue will be $2.99 billion to $3.11 billion, the Dallas- based company said today in a statement. Analysts on average had estimated $3.16 billion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Net income will be 15 cents to 19 cents a share, Texas Instruments said, compared with projections of 21 cents. Texas Instruments is the top supplier of chips that provide key functions in electronic devices ranging from missiles to mobile phones, making the company’s earnings an indicator of demand across the economy. Vice President Ron Slaymaker said the weakness in wireless was in connectivity products and OMAP processors, which run programs in smartphones and tablets. Some clients have cut their expectations for demand and reduced inventory, he said on a conference call. “Everybody in the tablet and handset market will overestimate the success they’re having, then end up eating inventory,” said Cody Acree, an analyst at Williams Financial Group in Dallas. Slaymaker declined to identify which Texas Instruments customers, or how many, had cut back orders.
• 'Anonymous' Hacker Sabu Worked Around the Clock to Aid U.S. Hector Xavier Monsegur, a member of the Anonymous, Internet Feds and LulzSec hacker groups, began working "around the clock" to inform on his colleagues immediately after his arrest, prosecutors told a judge. Monsegur, who pleaded guilty Aug. 15, began cooperating with U.S. authorities, including Federal Bureau of Investigation agents, after he was arrested June 7, Assistant U.S. Attorney James Pastore told U.S. District Judge Loretta Preska at a court hearing in August, an unsealed transcript shows. Monsegur, who used the nickname Sabu and is described as an "influential member" of all three groups, admitted to staging cyber attacks against the websites of the governments of Algeria, Yemen and Zimbabwe, according to a criminal information unsealed March 6. He also said he conducted hacks on Tribune Co. and News Corp.'s Fox television, prosecutors said.
• Oil Rises a Third Day. Oil for April delivery advanced as much as 37 cents to $106.95 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange and was at $106.90 at 1:51 p.m. Sydney time. The contract yesterday climbed 0.4 percent to $106.58, the highest close since March 5. Prices are up 20 cents this week and have gained 8.2 percent this year. Brent oil for April settlement was at $125.50 a barrel, up 6 cents, on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.
• Chinese Politburo Member Signals Wealth Gap Breached Unrest Trigger Point. China’s wealth gap has now exceeded the point that triggers widespread social unrest, according to figures revealed by Politburo member Bo Xilai, in a rare disclosure of the country’s income disparity. China’s Gini coefficient, an index of the income gap, has exceeded 0.46, Bo, the Communist Party Secretary for Chongqing Municipality, told reporters in Beijing today, without giving specifics. The index ranges from 0 to 1 and the 0.4 mark is used as a predictor by analysts for social disturbances. Bo, 62, has reintroduced slogans and songs from the late Chairman Mao Zedong in a bid to re-instill a Communist spirit in a country that still officially adheres to the principles espoused by Karl Marx. So-called mass incidents in China -- strikes, riots and other disturbances -- doubled from 2006 to 2010 as China’s wealth gap rose, according to Sun Liping, a professor at Beijing’s Tsinghua University. China’s Gini coefficient -- and hence its wealth gap -- has risen more than any other Asian economy in the last two decades, according to Murtaza Syed, the International Monetary Fund’s resident representative in Beijing, citing World Bank data. Syed told reporters in Beijing last month that the high wealth gap may hurt China’s long-term growth prospects. “If China becomes more and more unequal, it may find it very hard to keep growing at anywhere near the rates it’s been growing,” Syed said on Feb. 22.

Wall Street Journal:

• CBOE(CBOE) Executive Put on Leave Amid SEC Probe. The largest U.S. options exchange has put its most senior compliance officer on leave in the wake of an investigation by U.S. market regulators into the company's oversight of traders, according to people familiar with the matter.
• Deutsche Bank(DB) Bank Took ECB Loans. Deutsche Bank AG took between €5 billion and €10 billion ($6.6 billion and $13.1 billion) as part of the European Central Bank's lending program last week, according to a person familiar with the matter.
• European Commission Raises Hungary Deficit Forecasts - Agency. A background analysis by the European Commission obtained by Hungarian news website Portfolio.hu late Thursday raised Hungary's budget deficit outlook for 2012 and 2013.
• U.S., Jordan Discuss Securing Syria Cache. Fears Mount Over Suspected Chemical, Biological Weapons. The American and Jordanian militaries are jointly developing plans to secure what is believed to be Syria's vast stockpile of chemical and biological weapons, said U.S. and Arab officials briefed on the discussions. The groundwork comes amid mounting concerns about Damascus's arsenal of nerve agents and mustard gas at a time of growing instability in the country. One plan would call for Jordanian Special Operations units, acting as part of any broader Arab League peacekeeping mission, to go into Syria to secure nearly a dozen sites thought to contain weapons, these officials said.
• BofA(BAC) Makes a Deal on Side. More than 200,000 financially strapped households will have a chance to sharply reduce their mortgage balances under a side deal negotiated by Bank of America Corp. that could allow the bank to avoid as much as $850 million in penalties. Under the arrangement, part of the recent $25 billion settlement of alleged foreclosure abuses between government officials and five large lenders, Bank of America will make deeper and broader cuts in balances than other banks. The plan will offer qualifying borrowers a chance to cut their mortgage balances to their home's current market value.
• IMF Chief: Warns Against 'Shorting' Italy Given Rome's Economic Reforms.
• MF Global Executives Still Set to Get Bonuses. Three top executives of MF Global Holdings Ltd. when it collapsed could get bonuses of as much as several hundred thousand dollars each under a plan by a trustee overseeing the securities firm's bankruptcy case, people familiar with the matter said. Louis Freeh, the former Federal Bureau of Investigation director now in charge of unwinding what is left of the New York company, is expected to ask a bankruptcy-court judge as soon as this month to approve performance-related payouts for the chief operating officer, finance chief and general counsel at MF Global, these people said.
• FBI Traces Trail of Spy Ring to China. Federal agents were searching Walter and Christina Liew's home here last July for evidence of corporate espionage when a safe deposit box key caught their attention. They asked Ms. Liew if she knew where the bank was located. Her husband told her in Chinese to say she didn't, according to an account later given by federal prosecutors. An agent who understood Chinese picked up on the exchange and followed Ms. Liew as she left the house, drove to an Oakland bank and tried to empty a safe deposit box the key fit.
• Exxon(XOM) Rips U.S. Push on Fracking Oversight. Federal efforts to expand oversight of oil and gas drilling are threatening to derail development of U.S. energy without necessarily improving safety, Exxon Mobil Corp. Chief Executive Rex Tillerson said Thursday. The push by the Environmental Protection Agency and a handful of other agencies to have a say in the controversial drilling technique known as hydraulic fracturing, or "fracking," has had little impact so far on energy giant Exxon, Mr. Tillerson said in an interview following the company's analysts meeting in New York on Thursday.
• Spain Tests Europe's Resolve on Devicits. It hasn't taken long for the euro zone's new tough budget rules to face their first big test. Spain's stand-off with Brussels over the size of its 2012 budget deficit has presented officials in the city with a dilemma: How do they preserve the credibility of the tighter fiscal rules without triggering a Greece-style downward economic spiral by forcing Spain to slash its deficit too vigorously? Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy formally opened the issue last week when he announced that Spain's new budget-deficit target would not be the 4.4% that his predecessor agreed last year with the European Commission in Brussels—but 5.8%. The reason: last year's deficit turned out to be 8.5%-not the 6% target that this year's goal was based on. Hitting the agreed 2012 target would cut domestic demand by four percentage points, further squeezing Spain's already shrinking economy. It wasn't only Mr. Rajoy's unilateral decision that upset the Brussels bureaucracy. It was the way he framed it, telling reporters: "This is a sovereign decision made by Spain that I am announcing now, to you."

MarketWatch:

• Videogame Sales Slide Again in February. Videogame sales fell sharply in February, worse than analysts’ had expected, and making for a third straight month of declines for a sector suffering from a lack of compelling new releases. According to data from NPD Group late Thursday, sales of game software in the U.S. slid by 23% during the month compared to the same period last year. That was an improvement over the stunning 38% drop in January, but still deeper than the 8% to 19% drop modeled by analysts. NPD data only includes sales made through traditional retail outlets and not those made over digital channels.

Business Insider:

• The 'Biggest Surprise' From GE's(GE) Investor Meeting Should Serve As A Warning To All Investors.
• Australian Gold Sales Collapsed.
• Failed UK Rescue Effort Ends In Death Of Two Hostages Held By Nigerian Islamic Terrorists.
• A Brief History of Goldman Sachs(GS), The Most Hated Bank In The World.
  

Zero Hedge:

• US Budget Deficit Hits All Time High In February. (graph)
• Reuters Reports That Hedge Funds Have Found Greek Default Trigger Loophole.
  

CNBC:

• EU Debt Issue to Rile Markets for 'Many More Years'. Wall Street may breathe a sigh of relief with the apparent success of the Greek bond swap, but the European debt issue will continue to rile the markets for “many more years to come.” “Even if we band aid this Greek situation right now, they’re going to default down the road or write down 100 percent of the debt,” said Scott Wren, senior equity strategist at Wells Fargo Advisors. Wren projects that Greece will likely require further bailouts and other European nations such as Portugal and Spain may even jump on the bandwagon. In addition, Wren said he would not be surprised to see the market take a breather in the near-term, following the recent rally and expected slowdown in the global economy this year.
• China Inflation Rate Hits 20-Month Low as Economy Slows. China's annual rate of consumer inflation slowed sharply to a 20-month low of 3.2 percent in February, comfortably within Beijing's 2012 target of 4 percent. "The latest CPI number is mainly because of the dissipation of the Chinese New Year effect. Prices came down after the holiday, especially food prices," said Kevin Lai, economist at Daiwa in Hong Kong.
• Fisker Karma Car Dies in Consumer Reports Testing. A $100,000-plus Fisker Automotive luxury sports car died during Consumer Reports speed testing this week for reasons that are still unknown, leaving the struggling electric car startup with another blow to its image. "It is a little disconcerting that you pay that amount of money for a car and it lasts basically 180 miles before going wrong," David Champion, senior director for the magazine's automotive test center, told Reuters, on Thursday.

IBD:

• Chipotle(CMG) Stock Price Rises on Aggressive Growth Plan.
  

USA Today:

• Gas Prices Must Come Down, Consumers Say. Consumers fretting about soaring gasoline prices say President Obama and Congress must act to keep them from rising further, a Gallup Poll finds. An overwhelming number of consumers — 85% — say Obama and Congress should take "immediate" action to keep a lid on prices. After nearly four weeks of daily price increases, regular gasoline averages $3.76 a gallon nationwide. Industry analysts still expect a $4 top by Memorial Day, although prices could rise to $5 a gallon if escalating tensions in the Middle East disrupt crude oil shipments. At $5, about 30% of those surveyed by Gallup say they would have to make major changes in their lives and significant cutbacks in spending. About 28% say $4 gas would prompt similar changes.

Reuters:

• Starbucks(SBUX) to Sell Single-Serve Coffee Brewers. Starbucks Corp (SBUX.O) said it will launch its own single-cup coffee and espresso drink machine later this year, putting it in direct competition with partner Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc (GMCR.O), seller of the popular Keurig home brewers. Shares of Green Mountain plunged as much as 24 percent in after-hours trade, but regained some ground after Starbucks said on a conference call that it would continue to supply Green Mountain with Starbucks-branded single-serve coffee pods called K-cups. Starbucks shares rose 3 percent to $51.87.
• Banks Foreclosing on US Churches in Record Numbers. Banks are foreclosing on America's churches in record numbers as lenders increasingly lose patience with religious facilities that have defaulted on their mortgages, according to new data. The surge in church foreclosures represents a new wave of distressed property seizures triggered by the 2008 financial crash, analysts say, with many banks no longer willing to grant struggling religious organizations forbearance. Since 2010, 270 churches have been sold after defaulting on their loans, with 90 percent of those sales coming after a lender-triggered foreclosure, according to the real estate information company CoStar Group. In 2011, 138 churches were sold by banks, an annual record, with no sign that these religious foreclosures are abating, according to CoStar. That compares to just 24 sales in 2008 and only a handful in the decade before.

Telegraph:

• Legal Skull-Duggery in Greece May Doom Portugal. Europe has ring-fenced Greece's debt crisis for now but its escalating recourse to legal legerdemain has shattered the trust of global bond markets and may ultimately expose Portugal, Spain, and Italy to greater danger. "The rule of law has been treated with contempt," said Marc Ostwald from Monument Securities. "This will lead to litigation for the next ten years. It has become a massive impediment for long-term investors, and people will now be very wary about Portugal."
• Germany's Monetary Doyen Slams ECB's 'Shocking' Balance Sheet. The doyen of German monetarism has denounced the stimulus policies of the European Central Bank as a dangerous leap into the unknown, giving voice to growing misgivings among the German policy elite. Jurgen Stark, the ECB's former chief economist and Germany's board member until two months ago, said the blitz of lending had corrupted collateral standards and risked inflation. "The balance sheet of the euro system isn't just gigantic in size but also shocking in quality," he said. Unlimited lending to banks for three years has pushed the ECB's balance sheet to over €3 trillion (£2.5 trillion), overtaking the US Federal Reserve to become the world's most activist bank.

Shanghai Securities News:

• China Won't Relax Property Curbs Soon. The Chinese government will continue real estate curbs "resolutely" in 2012, citing China's housing minister Jiang Weixin. Jiang is confident in home price drops in tier 1 cities.

Evening Recommendations

• None of note

Night Trading

• Asian equity indices are +.25% to +2.0% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 156.0 -8.5 basis points.
  
• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 126.75 -6.75 basis points.
• FTSE-100 futures +.27%.
  
• S&P 500 futures +.09%.
  
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.06%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (ANN)/.08
• (CCL)/-.01
• (HIBB)/.56
• (PNY)/1.20
  

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST

• The Trade Deficit for January is estimated to widen to -$49.0B versus -$48.8B in December.
• The Change in Non-Farm Payrolls for February is estimated at 210K versus 243K in January.
• The Unemployment Rate for February is estimated at 8.3% versus 8.3% in January.
• Average Hourly Earnings for February are estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.2% gain in January.

10:00 am EST

• Wholesale Inventories for January are estimated to rise +.6% versus a +1.0% gain in December..
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The EuroGroup Conference Call on Greece could also impact trading today.
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Less Eurozone Debt Angst, More Tech Sector Optimism, Short-Covering, Investor Performance Angst

Broad Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  
• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  
• Volume: Light
  
• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• VIX 17.83 -6.45%
  
• ISE Sentiment Index 114.0 +12.87%
  
• Total Put/Call .91 -5.21%
  
• NYSE Arms .67 -16.25%
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 96.10 -.08%
  
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 174.32 -4.07%
  
• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 349.82 -.80%
  
• Emerging Market CDS Index 237.02 -3.40%
  
• 2-Year Swap Spread 25.50 -.25 bp
  
• TED Spread 39.75 unch.
  
• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -64.0 +.5 bp
  

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .08% unch.
  
• Yield Curve 171.0 +4 bps
  
• China Import Iron Ore Spot $142.60/Metric Tonne -.28%
  
• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 45.60 -1.3 points
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.26 +4 bps
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating +75 open in Japan
• DAX Futures: Indicating +27 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my Tech, Retail, Medical and Biotech sector longs
  
• Disclosed Trades: Covered all of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my (EEM) short
  
• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Greece Restructuring Deadline Looms as Bond Investors Signal Swap Accord. The Greek government’s deadline for the biggest sovereign restructuring in history approached with a majority of investors signaling their readiness to participate in the debt swap. The euro and stocks gained before the offer’s close at 10 p.m. in Athens today as Greek Prime Minister Lucas Papademos told his Cabinet ministers that Greece had made “an appropriate framework with significant incentives” for bondholders. “For this reason I look forward to the maximum possible participation of the private sector,” Papademos said, according to an e-mailed transcript of his comments. Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos told Parliament that “a historic process will be completed tonight,” and the results announced tomorrow.
• Draghi Lays Groundwork for ECB Stimulus Exit as Inflation Takes Spotlight. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi signaled he’s done enough to battle the sovereign debt crisis, laying the groundwork for an eventual exit from record-low interest rates and emergency lending measures. Declaring that the environment “has improved enormously” and there are “many signs of returning confidence in the euro,” Draghi turned the spotlight instead on “upside risks” to inflation, which is now forecast to remain above the ECB’s 2 percent limit this year. That suggests policy makers don’t plan to cut rates further or add to their 1 trillion euros ($1.32 trillion) of long-term loans to banks, economists said.
• Greek Swap Seen Provoking Aftershocks on Borrowing: Euro Credit. Greece’s day of reckoning with bondholders dawns with economists from Barclays Capital to Deutsche Bank AG concerned that the world’s largest debt restructuring will provoke aftershocks. Eight months of negotiations reach a head with today’s deadline for private creditors to accept a bond swap aimed at writing off 106 billion euros ($140 billion) of Greek debt. The government vows to bind holdouts to the deal should participation fall short of its target. Possible repercussions include a surge in borrowing costs for other indebted nations as investors refuse to lend to countries that may follow suit in imposing losses on bondholders. The accord may also trigger derivatives designed to insure against default, and may not be enough to prevent Greece from reneging on its debts in the coming years. “We have to be on alert for all kinds of potential risks surrounding this,” said Julian Callow, head of international and European economics at Barclays Capital in London. “We are in such unknown territory here by the sovereign debt standards of advanced economies that we have to pay attention.”
  
• Citigroup European Debt Chief Says Greek Euro-Exit Risk Remains. Greece risks being forced to exit the euro even with private investors agreeing to the biggest sovereign-debt restructuring in history, said Citigroup Inc. (C)’s head of European government-bond trading. “The private-sector involvement will be no panacea for Greece and unlikely to lead to debt sustainability,” Zoeb Sachee said in an e-mailed response to questions. New Greek bonds received in exchange for existing securities will probably trade between 22 percent and 27 percent of face value depending on their maturities, Sachee said. That would reflect the risk of “further PSI or default,” or a “euro-zone exit,” he said.
• Mersch at ECB Would Back German Criticism, Sueddeutsche Says. Yves Mersch is the top candidate to succeed Jose Manuel Gonzalez-Paramo on the management board of the ECB, as he is backed by Germany, France, and smaller European nations including Finland, Austria, and the Netherlands. Naming Mersch to the post would mean backing for criticism voiced by Bundesbank chief Jens Weidmann that the ECB too carelessly handed hundreds of billions of euros to ailing nations while accepting dubious guarantees in return, the newspaper said.
• Sovereign, Corporate Bond Risk Falls Before Greek Debt Exchange. The cost of insuring against default on European sovereign and corporate debt fell as Greece moved closer to completing its debt swap. The Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe Index of credit- default swaps on 15 governments dropped 5 basis points to 349 at 1 p.m. in London. The Markit iTraxx Crossover Index of 50 companies with mostly high-yield credit ratings fell 7 basis points to 581, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. A decline signals improved perceptions of credit quality. The Markit iTraxx Europe Index of 125 companies with investment-grade ratings was down two at 133 basis points. The Markit iTraxx Financial Index linked to senior debt of 25 banks and insurers declined one basis point to 214 and the subordinated gauge was two lower at 356.5.
• Household Net Worth Rises For First Time in 3 Quarters. Household wealth in the U.S. climbed from October through December for the first time in three quarters as an increase in stock prices outstripped a decline in home values. Net worth for households and non-profit groups increased by $1.19 trillion in the fourth quarter from the previous three months to $58.5 trillion, the Federal Reserve said today in its flow of funds report from Washington. Housing wealth decreased by the most in more than a year. The value of household real estate fell by $367.4 billion, the first decrease in three quarters. Owners’ equity as a share of total household real-estate holdings dropped to 38.4 percent last quarter from 38.9 percent. Mortgage borrowing decreased at a 1.5 percent pace, the 11th consecutive drop. Other forms of consumer credit, including auto and student loans, climbed at a 6.9 percent pace, the biggest gain in at least seven years. Total non-financial debt climbed at a 4.9 percent annual pace last quarter, led by a 13 percent increase by the federal government and a 4.6 percent gain among businesses. State and local government borrowing dropped at a 1 percent pace.
• Crude Oil Rises a Second Day on Signs Sanctions Are Cutting Iran Exports. Oil rose for a second day in New York on signs that sanctions on Iran are succeeding in cutting the nation’s crude exports. Futures climbed as much as 0.9 percent, adding to yesterday’s 1.4 percent increase. U.S. lawmakers proposed new measures against Iran’s nuclear program, while Barclays Capital said shipments from the Persian Gulf nation have dropped by 300,000 to 400,000 barrels a day. Oil for April delivery gained as much as $1 to $107.16 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange and was at $106.76 at 12:56 p.m. London time. Prices are 8 percent higher this year. Brent oil for April settlement was at $125.16, up $1.04 on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.
• Oil Rallies More From Dollar Outlook Than Iran: Chart of the Day. Higher oil prices may have more to do with the dollar's outlook than with tensions related to Iran's nuclear program, according to Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Harris Private Bank. Yesterday's price of $106.16 a barrel for deliveries next month of West Texas Intermediate, the benchmark U.S. crude, was .063 times the price of April gold futures. The ratio was less than the monthly average of .071 since 1985, according to Bloomberg. The relatively low number shows oil is rising "on the prospect of a debased dollar" as the Federal Reserve seeks to bolster real-estate and stock prices, Ablin wrote. Higher costs for crude "are a by-product of one of the Fed's intended consequences: asset inflation."
  
• Gold Futures Advance as Greek Rescue Spurs Demand for Dollar Alternative. Gold rose for a second day on signs that investors are buying the precious metal as an alternative to a slumping dollar. The U.S. currency fell for a second day against the euro as Greece moved closer to completing its debt swap. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said inflation will probably breach the bank’s 2 percent limit this year even as the economy stalls.
• Airline Passenger Growth Limited by Economy Until 2015, FAA Says. A sluggish economy and higher fuel prices will hold down airline growth until 2015, according to a U.S. Federal Aviation Administration forecast.
• Obama Lobbies Senate Dems to Head Off Keystone Pipeline Amendment. President Barack Obama, seeking to head off an election-year showdown over energy policy, has been calling wavering Senate Democrats to lobby against a Republican measure that would force approval of the Keystone XL oil pipeline from Canada. With a vote coming as soon as today, the president has made personal appeals to Democrats from Midwestern states, where many of the jobs would be created by building TransCanada Corp. (TRP)’s pipeline from Canada’s oil sands to refineries on the U.S. Gulf Coast, according to a Senate Democratic aide, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the private conversations. White House press secretary Jay Carney confirmed Obama’s calls while declining to identify who was targeted by the effort.
• Ayatollah Khamenei Says Obama's Iran Comments Are 'Good Words'. Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said President Barack Obama's comments that there is room for diplomacy in the international community's standoff with Iran are "good words."
• Obama Faces Swing State Anger Over Gas Prices. Voters in some U.S. swing states are feeling the pinch of rising gasoline prices more than those in states that tend to vote Democrat, posing a challenge to President Barack Obama’s re-election, according to a report. Gasoline in Florida, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania costs more than the national average of $3.76 a gallon, Trevor Houser, a partner at the New York-based policy analysis firm Rhodium Group, said yesterday in a report. Consumers in Iowa, New Mexico and Ohio spend more on gasoline as a percentage of their personal income than the national average.
• Jobless Claims in U.S. Rose 8,000 Last Week. The number of Americans filing claims for jobless benefits rose to 362,000 last week, a level consistent with an improving labor market. Applications for unemployment insurance payments increased by 8,000 in the week ended March 3, Labor Department figures showed today. Economists forecast 352,000 claims, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey. The average over the past four weeks held close to a four-year low.

Wall Street Journal:

• Goldman(GS) Begins Hedge Fund Wind-Down. Goldman Sachs began this month unwinding its investments in hedge funds to comply with the Volcker Rule’s ban on banks holding more than 3% of the assets of any single fund. The process will take more than two years. It will redeem up to 10% of its stakes in certain hedge funds each quarter over ten consecutive quarters, starting in March 2012 and ending in June 2014.

CNBC.com:

• Jobs Report: Warm Winter May Boost February Number.
• S&P: China Developers Close to 'Downgrade Thresholds'.
• Apple's(AAPL) New iPad Is 'Pretty Much a Home Run': Analyst.
  

Business Insider:

• US Soldier in Afghanistan Says It's Outrageous That Obama Apologized For Koran Burnings. Several U.S. soldiers have been killed. And on Monday, a suicide bomber blew himself up at the entrance of Bagram Airfield in retaliation for the incineration of Islam's holy book. "The insurgents used the Koran to write jihadists messages to pass to others. In doing so, they violated their own cultural practice and defiled the Koran." The holy books were confiscated from a U.S. prison, Parwan Detention Center at Bagram Airfield, after they were discovered to contain extremist messages and were mistakenly taken out with the office trash. Sgt. Shively continued, "The insurgents turned the Koran into contraband. Therefore it’s ridiculous that we would even consider apologizing.”
• Here's Apple's(AAPL) First Ad For The New iPad. (video)
  

Zero Hedge:

• Presenting Europe's Schizophrenia Post LTRO. (graphs)
• Greek "Fresh Start" Bonds Face Immediate 80% Loss, 98% Probability Of Redefault.

Forbes:

• Americans Love McDonald's(MCD) But Overseas Growth Is Slowing. McDonald's overseas sales growth slowed last month. Americans though couldn’t get enough of the Golden Arches. The growth slip was most noticeable in Asia, the Middle East and Africa, where comparable store sales growth fell by 1.6%. Weak consumer demand in Japan and the Chinese lunar New Year hampered efforts there, the company said today. European sales growth suffered too, falling by 0.9%. The emerging markets decline are likely the most troubling factor for investors. Emerging markets are largely seen as a potential gold mine for all retailers—especially so for low-cost food chains that can easily appeal to rapidly expanding populations.

TreasuryDirect:

• US Taxpayers Spent $454Billion+ Just on Debt Interest in 2011.

TheStreet.com:

• Big Banks Bleed Best and Brightest to Hedge Funds. While the Volcker Rule hasn't yet been implemented, buy-side analysts, traders and investment managers are already leaving the big banks to strike out on their own.

Reuters:

• Egypt Parliament to Reject Govt in Vote - Muslim Brotherhood. The Egyptian parliament is likely to declare it has lost confidence in the government of Prime Minister Kamal al-Ganzouri via a formal vote, Muslim Brotherhood leaders said on Thursday, a move that will add to pressure on the ruling military council to appoint a cabinet led by the group. Emboldened by its success in parliamentary elections, the once-banned Brotherhood has become more critical of the Ganzouri cabinet which is set to govern until the end of June according to a timetable drawn up by the ruling generals.

AP:

• Homeless Household Levels Up by 14%. The number of households classed as homeless increased by 14% last year, Government figures have revealed. Some 48,510 applications for homelessness assistance were approved by councils, up from 42,390 in 2010. Among them were 69,460 children or unborn babies, the statistics from the Department for Communities and Local Government showed. Leslie Morphy, chief executive of homeless charity Crisis, said: "Our worst fears are coming to pass.

Cinco Dias:

• Most Spanish regions consider it will be impossible to meet the budget deficit targets set for this year by the central government of Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy, citing private conversations with officials.

The Australian:

• US Offers Israel Bombs To "delay" Iran Attack. THE US offered Israel advanced weaponry in return for it committing not to attack Iran's nuclear facilities this year, according to an Israeli report last night. Citing unnamed Western diplomats and intelligence sources, the report in the Maariv daily said that during Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's visit to Washington this week, the US administration offered to supply Israel with advanced bunker-busting bombs and long-range refuelling planes. In return, Israel would agree to put off a possible attack on Iran until next year, after the US elections in November. The issue of Iran was top of the agenda at talks between Mr Netanyahu and US President Barack Obama in Washington this week.

Tencent:

• China should raise tolerance for small- and medium-sized companies' non-performing loans to about 5%, citing Yang Ziqiang, governor of China's central bank's Jinan branch.

Securities Times:

• Home prices in China's seven or eight major cities must decline, citing Housing Minister Jiang Weixin. If home prices rise further at current rates and the property market bubble bursts, the impact on the economy will be "very large," Jiang said.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.39%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Restaurants -1.10% 2) REITs -.81% 3) Coal -.40%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• AIG, GRPN, WSM, MW, NLY, NAV, GMCR, MCD, FSYS, WSM, SMTC, HITK, DNDN, AGNC, ASPS, JOSB, KIRK and CALL
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) ELN 2) ZION 3) BAX 4) ABC 5) SIRI
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) BK 2) VNO 3) CVX 4) AMZN 5) LMT
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume
  

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth +.88%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Homebuilders +1.78% 2) Agriculture +1.49% 3) Gaming +1.29%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• TKC, DB, MDVN, CLNE, MITK, ARMH, CTXS, FTK, COH, CIEN, ARUN and FIO
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) CCL 2) CMCSK 3) MWW 4) WSM 5) MSI
  

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) AEO 2) MCD 3) CIEN 4) HOTT 5) SQNM
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume
  

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:

• Investors With 60% of Greek Bonds Agree to Swap. Investors with about 60 percent of the Greek bonds eligible for the nation’s debt swap have so far indicated they’ll participate, putting the country on the verge of the biggest sovereign restructuring in history. Greece’s largest banks, most of the country’s pension funds, and more than 30 European banks and insurers including BNP Paribas (BNP) SA, Commerzbank AG (CBK) and Assicurazioni Generali SpA (G) have agreed to the offer. That brings the total to about 124 billion euros ($163 billion), based on data compiled by Bloomberg from company reports and government statements. The goal of the exchange is to reduce the 206 billion euros of privately held Greek debt by 53.5 percent and turn the tide against the debt crisis that has roiled Europe for more than two years. While Greece would prefer a voluntary deal, the government has said it will use collective action clauses to force holders of Greek-law bonds into the swap if the so-called private sector involvement falls short and it gets sufficient approval from investors to change the bonds’ terms. “Adding up the commitments to participate in the Greek PSI, it is now clear that the CAC hurdles will very likely be cleared,” Commerzbank’s head of fixed-income strategy, Christoph Rieger, said in a note yesterday. Under the rules of the exchange, investors holding at least 50 percent of the eligible bonds must vote on the swap, and 66 percent of those must agree to amend the bonds to enable the government to impose the collective action clauses, Rieger said. The offer ends at 10 p.m. Athens time today.
  
• ECB's Inflation Radar May Limit Scope to Lower Rates as Recession Looms. Inflation is back on the European Central Bank’s radar, complicating efforts to bolster growth as the sovereign debt crisis pushes the economy toward recession. The ECB will lift its 2012 inflation forecast above the 2 percent price-stability threshold today, limiting its ability to cut interest rates further even as it lowers the outlook for growth, economists said. Policy makers in Frankfurt will keep the benchmark rate at a record low of 1 percent, 55 of 58 economists in a Bloomberg News survey predict. The decision is due at 1:45 p.m. and ECB President Mario Draghi will unveil the bank’s new economic projections at a 2:30 p.m. press conference. “Draghi’s message won’t be a particularly pleasant one,” said Klaus Baader, chief euro-area economist at Societe Generale SA in London. “The ECB will breach its inflation limit for another year and the economic outlook hasn’t brightened significantly. That’s tying their hands on rates for now.”
• Emerging-Market Stocks in Deepest Losing Streak of Year on Greek Debt Swap. Emerging-market stocks fell, completing the worst three-day slump since November, as concern Greece’s debt swap won’t get enough investor support and prospects Chinese exports are dropping damped appetite for riskier assets. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index (MXEF) retreated for a third day, losing 0.3 percent at the close in New York to 1,037.71, the lowest since Feb. 1. The three-day loss is the steepest since Nov. 23.
• Oil Trades Near Two-Day High as Iran Tension Counters Rising U.S. Supplies. Oil traded near the highest price in two days as speculation that sanctions on Iran are cutting supplies countered signs of weakening fuel demand in the U.S., the world’s biggest crude consumer. Futures were little changed after gaining 1.4 percent yesterday. U.S. lawmakers proposed new sanctions against Iran’s nuclear program, while Barclays Capital said shipments from the Persian Gulf nation have dropped by 300,000 to 400,000 barrels a day. London-traded Brent’s premium to New York crude was near the widest in almost a month. Crude supplies at Cushing, Oklahoma, climbed to the highest level since July. “We’ve seen that differential between Brent and West Texas blow out again and that’s further evidence to suggest that there are supply concerns” because of Iran, said Michael McCarthy, a chief market strategist at CMC Markets Asia Pacific Pty in Sydney. “The demand picture is certainly looking weaker.” Oil for April delivery was at $106.12 a barrel, down 4 cents, in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 2 p.m. Sydney time. The contract yesterday increased $1.46 to $106.16 a barrel, the highest close since March 5. Prices are 7.4 percent higher this year. Brent oil for April settlement was at $124.05, down 7 cents, on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.
• Fed Debt-Purchase Approach May Hurt Rather Than Help, RBC's Cloherty Says. A plan reported to be under discussion by the Federal Reserve to spur the economy while keeping a lid on inflation would drive up short-term interest rates, according to Royal Bank of Canada’s Michael Cloherty. Fed officials are considering a program in which the central bank would buy long-term mortgage or Treasury bonds and effectively tie up the money by borrowing it back for short periods at low rates, the Wall Street Journal reported without citing sources. The approach would keep excess money out of the system and head off inflation, damping criticism by opponents of earlier Fed efforts to support the economy, the newspaper said. Such a plan would be “one of the more perplexing policy steps in this crisis” because it would encourage banks to invest their reserve balances in the Treasury repurchase- agreement market, said Cloherty, head of U.S. interest rate strategist at RBC Capital Markets in New York, one of 21 firms that trade with the Fed. This would offset much of the benefit of the low interest rates the Fed has maintained. “Executing this policy would have a sizable distortions and open a number of questions that the Fed doesn’t want opened,” Cloherty said in an interview. The plan “would do dramatically more harm than good.”
• Drones Move Closer to Flying in Civilian Airspace. Drone aircraft moved closer to taking flight in U.S. civilian airspace as regulators issued a call for advice on establishing test sites. The Federal Aviation Administration said today it wants drone makers and the public to comment on where to locate proving grounds and their management, according to a filing in the U.S. Federal Register’s Public Inspection Desk. “Unmanned aircraft can help us meet a number of challenges, from spotting wildfires to assessing natural disasters,” Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood said in a statement. “These test sites will help us ensure that our high safety standards are maintained as the use of these aircraft becomes more widespread.”
• China Puts Jump to Three-Year High as Dominance Shrinks: Options. China's shrinking dominance over global economic growth is driving trading in the options market, which the cost to protect against losses in the nation's biggest companies is the highest compared with the U.S. since 2008. Options on the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index of 40 companies from PetroChina Co. to China Construction Bank Crop. cost the most since the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. when compared with contracts on U.S. stocks. The difference, or skew, shows investors are increasingly bearish on the index of Hong Kong-traded China shares.
• Asia Faces Headwinds With Greece Debt Deal. Australian employers unexpectedly cut jobs, South Korea’s central bank warned of “downside” risks to growth and Japan reported an increasing reliance on energy imports that threatens to damp its economic rebound. Today’s indicators highlighted headwinds for the Asia- Pacific region’s expansion as policy makers evaluate whether to add to stimulus implemented in recent months. With inflation pressures remaining, South Korean and New Zealand officials kept benchmark interest rates unchanged and Indonesia was forecast to do the same. “Global trade has slowed so Asian countries heavily reliant on exports are certainly suffering,” said Annette Beacher, the Singapore-based head of Asia-Pacific research at TD Securities Inc., a unit of Canada’s second-largest bank.
  

Wall Street Journal:

• Iran Steps Up Rights Abuses, U.N. Says. Iran has dramatically increased executions over the past decade and abused the rights of students, women, journalists and religious minorities, according to a new United Nations report that spotlights Tehran's crackdown on domestic dissent as the country faces an international clampdown over its nuclear ambitions.
• Greek Debt Restructuring Expected to Put CDS Market to Test. It isn't yet known if Greece's debt restructuring will trigger payouts on insurance-like contracts called credit-default swaps covering the government's debt. But if it does, it will touch off the biggest-ever CDS auction for sovereign bonds and determine how much banks and others will have to pay to settle the swaps.
• U.S. Warns Apple(AAPL). The Justice Department has warned Apple Inc. and five of the biggest U.S. publishers that it plans to sue them for allegedly colluding to raise the price of electronic books, according to people familiar with the matter.
• Emerging-Market Engines Falter. Fresh signs of economic weakness in Brazil are adding to a growing worry for the global economy: that the emerging markets that have boosted growth in recent years are slowing. That is a big concern amid the drag of the European debt crisis and a sluggish U.S. recovery. Brazil, China, Russia, India and South Africa are among the dynamic economies that helped the world bounce back from the 2008 financial crisis. This time around, they seem less likely to provide the same boost as they deal with problems such as strong currencies, inflation, deficits and real-estate bubbles.
• Facebook(FB) Beefs Up Its IPO Roster. Facebook Inc.'s march toward its highly anticipated initial public offering is now coming with a lot more help. On Wednesday, the social network said in a new disclosure document that it added 25 underwriters to an original group of six for its IPO, as the company also boosted its financial muscles with a new credit line and bridge loan. In addition, it offered more information on where it derives its revenue.
• General Motors(GM) Recalls Vehicles in China. General Motors Co. will recall 18,204 imported vehicles in China because of problems with the cars' anti-lock braking systems, China's quality control agency said in a statement dated Wednesday.

MarketWatch:

• Tough Climate, Dilemmas for China's Small Business. The problems have indeed been mounting in recent months among the nation’s small businesses, the most vulnerable of China’s private sector players. Labor supplies are strained, driving up wages. Credit access is tight, as banks prefer big and state-owned companies. Production and raw materials costs are rising. Customers are in arrears. And brutal competition for clients at home as well as abroad is making for razor thin profits, if any.

Business Insider:

• China Isn't Playing Fair, And Neither Should We.
• Goldman(GS) Reveals The Frustrating Reason That Big Government Debts Slow The Economy.
  

Zero Hedge:

• China Moves To Further Marginalize Dollar: Offers CNY-Denominated BRIC Loans.
• Iran Nuclear Site 'Clean-Up' Raises Suspicions Further.

CNBC:

• Consumer Credit Surges 8.6%, Mostly on Student Debt. The American consumer is levering-up again, as consumers borrowed more for everything from student loans to cars. Consumer credit jumped 8.6 percent, or $17.7 billion, in January to $2.54 trillion, the Federal Reserve reported. It was the fifth straight month that borrowing increased and the largest gain since 2004.
• US Eyes Summers and Rice for World Bank: Sources. Former White House adviser Lawrence Summers, diplomat Susan Rice and PepsiCo CEO Indra Nooyi are on a "short list" of possible U.S. candidates to head the World Bank, a person with knowledge of the Obama administration's thinking said on Wednesday.

NY Times:

• Auto Overcapacity Gives Leaders Another Issue to Ponder. While Europe has been preoccupied with the euro crisis, another storm has been gathering that could also take a grievous toll on jobs and growth. Just as Europe has too much debt, it also has more automobile factories than the economy can support. The overcapacity is not exactly a secret, but judging from the talk at the Geneva auto show this week, a long-postponed reckoning is nigh.
• Cost of Gene Sequencing Falls, Raising Hopes for Medical Advances. In Silicon Valley, the line between computing and biology has begun to blur in a way that could have enormous consequences for human longevity.

Washington Post:

• Greek Debt Write-Down: The Era of Risk-Free Government Bonds Nears Its End.

CNN:

• AIG(AIG) Bailout: $42 Billion To Go. The Treasury Department is selling $6 billion worth of its AIG stock at a profit. But it's still not clear taxpayers will come out ahead on the insurer's bailout.
• Wells Fargo(WFC) to Charge $7 Fee On More Checking Accounts.
  

Reuters:

• Japan GDP Contraction Eases, Current Account in Red. Japan's economy shrank less than initially estimated in the fourth quarter as companies ramped up capital expenditure, but the current account swung to a record deficit in January as a shift away from nuclear power pushes up fossil fuel imports. The revision to GDP showed a 0.2 percent contraction, bang in line with the median market forecast as companies look to an increase in demand due to reconstruction of the country's tsunami-battered northeast coast.
• Proview Shenzhen Asks China Distributors to Halt iPad Sales. Proview Technology, which is battling Apple over the iPad trademark in China, has asked Chinese distributors to stop selling the popular tablet PC after the U.S. technology giant launched the latest version of its iPad. The move is the latest twist in a long-running lawsuit between the world's most valuable technology company and the Chinese firm, a unit of near-bankrupt Proview International Holdings Ltd, but was expected to have little impact on the case.
• US Senate Democrat Proposes Ban on Keystone Pipeline Fuel Exports. A Democratic U.S. senator proposed on Wednesday to ban exports of oil from the proposed Keystone XL crude pipeline from Canada and require U.S. iron and steel be used to build it, part of an effort to derail a Republican plan that would fast-track the project.
• Korn Ferry(KFY) 3Q Misses Estimates; Outlook Weak. Korn/Ferry International Inc posted lower-than-expected quarterly results, hurt by higher expenses, and the U.S. executive search company forecast fourth-quarter earnings below Wall Street expectations. Korn/Ferry, which competes with Heidrick & Struggles International Inc, expects fourth-quarter earnings of 24 cents to 30 cents a share, excluding items. Analysts, on average, were expecting earnings of 31 cents a share, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Shares of the Los Angeles-based company were down nearly 3 percent in trading after the bell.

Telegraph:

• Triple Trouble in Europe, US and China Brings Out The Bears. Graham Secker from Morgan Stanley said it is rare for global stocks, oil prices and government bonds to rise in lockstep, and such exuberance becomes a "very reliable sell signal for stocks" once speculators join the party.

South China Morning Post:

• Port of Shanghai Sees A Slowdown. In a sign of slowing global trade, the throughput of Shanghai, the world's busiest port, turned out to be weaker than expected in the first two months of this year. Shanghai's container throughput rose 3.6 per cent to 4.8 million twenty foot equivalent units (teus) in January and February, while cargo throughput grew 7 per cent to 76.16 million tonnes, according to the website of Shanghai International Port Group, the port operator. Given that Shanghai's container throughput enjoyed 7 per cent to 9 per cent year-on-year growth in the second, third and fourth quarters last year, a growth of 3.6 per cent falls short of expectations, said Nomura analyst Jim Wong. Combining the data of January and February and eliminating the distorting effects of the Lunar New Year, Wong said: "This year people are more cautious. They are delaying things all over the world. Factories in China stayed closed for a longer period." Willy Lin Sun-mo, chairman of the Hong Kong Shippers' Council, said: "At this moment, the forecast is it's going to be a very difficult season in the first six months of this year." He added: "The overall sentiment is still weak. People still don't have much confidence in the market. "The global economy is not very dynamic, and the Chinese government just lowered its GDP forecast to 7.5 per cent this year.

Evening Recommendations

• None of note

Night Trading

• Asian equity indices are +.50% to +1.25% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 164.50 -5.5 basis points.
  
• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 133.50 -1.75 basis points.
• FTSE-100 futures +.17%.
  
• S&P 500 futures +.13%.
  
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.10%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (SFD)/.65
• (HITK)/.83
• (WSM)/1.13
• (NAV)/-.27
• (BKE)/1.15
• (JW/A)/.94
• (ZUMZ)/.59
• (COO)/1.04
• (ZQK)/-.10
• (ULTA)/.67
• (ARO)/.38

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST

• Initial Jobless Claims are estimated at 351K versus 351K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 3400K versus 3402K prior.
  

Upcoming Splits

• (RES) 3-for-2
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Challenger Job Cuts report for February, Greek Bond Swap Deadline, BoE rate decision, ECB rate decision, weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index, RBC Consumer Outlook Index for March, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, (HUN) investor day, (XOM) analyst meeting, China CPI/Fix Asset Investment/Industrial Production/PPI/Retail Sales, UBS Tech Conference, (ALTR) Mid-Quarter Update and the (TXN) Mid-Quarter Update could also impact trading today.
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by technology and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.