Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +1.39%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Alt Energy +2.65% 2) Disk Drives +2.58% 3) HMOs +2.22%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• HES, CHK, CCJ, PFCB, NUVA, VECO, FIRE, CAR, AEIS, MNST, CATM, SFLY, MPWR, TXRH, BRKR, SHLD, ALLT, UBNT, CAKE, GET, IPGP, GWR, BGC, AGCO, MOH, MAS, ADM, ANF, DDD, SCSS, NI, AKAM, PAY, CERN, TEN and APC
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) FIRE 2) PLX 3) VECO 4) ACAS 5) HTZ
  

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) LMT 2) VECO 3) NUVA 4) TMO 5) AGCO
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:

• ECB Loans Plant Seeds of European Disintegration: Euro Credit. European Central Bank measures to stem the region's debt crisis threaten instead to undermine the euro. ECB loans worth more than $1.3 trillion have been recycled into government bonds, capping borrowing costs. As Italy's reliance on its local institutions increases and Spanish banks accelerate purchases of domestic government securities, however, the economic ties that bind the fate of euro members to each other loosen, weakening the incentives for cross-border support to defend the currency union. "As the local bond markets have become owned only by domestic institutions, there is less and less incentive for the other countries to support and bailout one of those," said Stephane Monier, who helps manage more than $150 billion as head of fixed income and currencies at Lombard Odier Investment Managers. "Basically you're planting the seeds for the disintegration of the euro zone."
• Bonds Prove Only Winners for First Time Since 2008 on Contagion Fears. For the first time since the start of 2008, bonds were the only investments to provide positive returns amid renewed concern the global economy is slowing and as widening deficits in Europe threaten contagion. Fixed-income assets -- from Australian government debt to U.S. Treasuries to global junk bonds -- gained 0.57 percent last month through April 27 including reinvested interest, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch index data. The MSCI All- Country World Index of stocks lost 1.1 percent including dividends while the Standard & Poor’s GSCI Total Return Index of metals, fuels and agricultural products fell 0.5 percent. The U.S. Dollar Index dropped 0.29 percent. “Concerns of an economic slowdown and renewed risks over Europe are the biggest drivers,” Anthony Valeri, a market strategist in San Diego at LPL Financial, which oversees $330 billion, said April 26 in a telephone interview. “There’s renewed concerns about Europe, and Spain in particular.”
• Reinhart, Rogoff See Huge Output Losses From High Debt. The U.S. and other developed economies with high public debt potentially face “massive” losses of output lasting more than a decade, even if their interest rates remain low, according to new research by economists Carmen and Vincent Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff. In a paper published today on the National Bureau of Economic Research’s website, they found that countries with debts exceeding 90 percent of the economy historically have experienced subpar economic growth for more than 20 years. That has left output at the end of the period a quarter below where it would have been otherwise. “The long-term risks of high debt are real,” they wrote. “Growth effects are significant” even when debtor nations are able to borrow “at relatively low real interest rates.”
• JPMorgan’s(JPM) Zubrow Says Fed Risk Rule May Hurt Markets. JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) said a Federal Reserve proposal to cut risk by capping a bank’s dealings with any one lender, corporation or foreign government fails to strike the “correct balance” and may harm financial markets. The plan “could destabilize markets,” Barry Zubrow, executive vice president of corporate and regulatory affairs for JPMorgan, said yesterday in a comment letter to the central bank. The Fed is reaching “well beyond” the Dodd-Frank reform legislation with “disruptive” standards that duplicate or conflict with other rules and directives, he wrote.
• Obama Fails to Stem Middle-Class Hollowing Out. Barack Obama campaigned four years ago assailing President George W. Bush for wage losses suffered by the middle class. More than three years into Obama’s own presidency, those declines have only deepened. The rebound from the worst recession since the 1930s has generated relatively few of the moderately skilled jobs that once supported the middle class, tightening the financial squeeze on many Americans, even those who are employed. “It started long before Obama, but he hasn’t done anything,” said John Forsyth, 58, a railroad-car inspector and political independent from Lebanon, Ohio. “He kept pushing this change, change, change, and he hasn’t done anything.”
• Infants Born Addicted to Opiates Tripled in Past Decade. The number of babies born dependent on prescription painkillers like Oxycontin tripled in the last decade along with higher costs to treat their withdrawal symptoms, research showed. The surge in newborns with withdrawal symptoms from 2000 to 2009 was accompanied by a five-fold increase in the number of mothers using the opiate drugs during pregnancy, according to a study today in the Journal of the American Medical Association. The average hospital bill to treat the babies jumped 35 percent to $53,400 in the same period, the research found. Sales of opiate painkillers such as Oxycontin and Vicodin increased four-fold during the decade, according to the study.

Wall Street Journal:

• Europe, in Slump, Rethinks Austerity. Spain has joined seven other euro-zone nations in recession, according to data released Monday, providing new evidence that austerity policies are failing to spark confidence in the region's economies ahead of a week of expected anti-austerity protests and a string of important national elections. Almost every piece of new economic data in recent weeks has reinforced the impression that swaths of the European economy are contracting. The worsening economic picture is raising political tensions around the euro zone—both French and Greek elections this weekend are expected to castigate incumbents.
• Banks Ease Rules On Some Lending. Consumers found it easier to get credit cards and auto loans in the first quarter of 2012, but standards for home and business loans remained tight, the Federal Reserve said Monday. The central bank's quarterly survey of senior loan officers at American banks and foreign ones with U.S. operations also showed lending demand grew across the board as banks moderately loosened credit standards for the first three months of 2012, compared with the previous quarter.
• NYSE CEO Sees High-Speed Firms Heading For Dark Pools. Regulatory scrutiny around high-speed trading strategies appears to be pushing the business away from stock exchanges and into lesser-regulated platforms such as "dark pools," according to the top executive of NYSE Euronext (NYX).
• Egan-Jones Cuts Spain's Rating To Junk Status At BB+. Credit-rating company Egan-Jones cut its view on Spain to junk status Monday. The ratings firm now rates Spain at double-B-plus, down one notch from its previous rating at triple-B-minus. Egan-Jones, which is smaller than the world's three big ratings firms Standard & Poor's, Moody's Investors Service and Fitch Ratings, is the first to consider Spanish debt junk. Thursday, S&P cut its rating on Spain to triple-B-plus, which is three notches above where Egan-Jones rates Spain. Moody's and Fitch rate Spain even higher than S&P does. In cutting Spain to junk status, Egan-Jones said the country is dealing a "miserable trend" over the past three fiscal years of declining gross domestic product and mushrooming debt. Egan-Jones estimated Spain's debt-to-GDP level at 61% and continuing to rise. Monday, Spain said its economy contracted for the second-straight quarter during the first three months of the year putting it officially into recession. The country's economic weakness and high unemployment mean costs for social payments are surging, which makes its debt load even more unmanageable.
• Fed's Fisher: Too Soon to Talk About Tighter Policy. Although he believes the Federal Reserve has already provided too much stimulus to the economy, a veteran central banker said Monday now isn’t the time to start calling for a tightening in monetary policy. Looking at the various programs the Fed has run to expand its balance sheet by buying bonds to stimulate growth, “it’s not clear to me [the programs have] been fully productive, or even counterproductive,” Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Richard Fisher said in an interview with Dow Jones Newswires, held on the sidelines of the Milken Institute Global Conference in Beverly Hills, Calif.
• BofA(BAC) to Cut 2,000 Jobs. Amid the banking industry's relentless belt-tightening, even Bank of America Corp.'s moneymakers aren't safe. The Charlotte, N.C., company is planning about 2,000 staff cuts in its investment banking, commercial banking and non-U.S. wealth-management units, said people familiar with the situation.
• IRS Reviews Chesapeake(CHK) CEO's Perk. Chesapeake Energy Corp. disclosed Monday that the Internal Revenue Service was reviewing aspects of a controversial perk that allows longtime CEO Aubrey McClendon to purchase a small stake in every oil or gas well the company drills.

Business Insider:

• One Of Jim O'Neill's Favorite Economic Indicators Just Came In Awful.
• CNBC is Freaking Out Because Andrew Ross Sorkin's Ratings Are Terrible.
  

Zero Hedge:

• Treasury Forecasts $447 Billion In Funding Needs Thru End Of September - $300 Billion Shy Of Trendline.
• Questions About Europe's Band-Aid Union Reemerge.
• China Manufacturing Continues To 'Contract-And-Expand' Even As April PMI Misses Expectations. (graph)
  

CNBC:

• Pimco Planning for 'Lackluster Economy': El-Erian. "Our strategy is based on a lackluster recovery. So we are assuming it will be a lackluster economy, Pimco CEO Mohamed El-Erian told CNBC's Closing Bell on Monday. Jobs and economic data in the U.S. have been been weakening, "and that’s a problem," he told CNBC during the annual Milken Institute Global Conference. "The last thing we need is a repeat of 2008, 2009, 2010 where the year starts strong" and then declines.
• Global Investors Resume Exit From Euro Debt. Global investors resumed their exit from euro zone bond markets in April, cutting their holdings of the bloc's bonds to their lowest level in over a year as sovereign debt woes re-emerged to hit Spain and Italy again. The surveys of 55 leading investment houses in the United States, continental Europe, Britain and Japan showed holdings of euro zone bonds in balanced portfolios fell to 24.5 percent, compared with 26 percent in March and substantially lower than the 26.9 recorded at height of the crisis in November last year. "Tensions are now rising again as the ECB's tonic wears off," said Dirk Wiedmann, Head of Investment at Rothschild Wealth Management. On aggregate, the poll shows investors upping Japanese and UK bond holdings to compensate for euro zone reductions, while there was a small shift from government and investment grade allocations to speculative "junk" holdings within an overall steady U.S. debt exposure. "Elections in the euro area may spark renewed political uncertainty amid the euro debt crisis," said Giordano Lombardo, group chief investment officer at Pioneer Investments.

Real Clear Markets:

• If I Wanted America to Fail: Free Market Agitprop With a Lesson.

USA Today:

• Delta(DAL) buys oil refinery in a bid to offset rising fuel costs.

Reuters:

• Australia House Prices Fall for Fifth Quarter, Rate Cut Looms. House prices in Australia's major cities fell for the fifth straight quarter in the three months to March, underlining the weakness of the housing market in general and adding to pressure for an immediate cut in interest rates. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) holds its monthly policy meeting Tuesday and is widely expected to cut its cash rate by at least 25 basis points to 4.0 percent given benign inflation and disappointing economic growth outside of mining. Housing has been particularly weak with the government's measure of prices for detached houses falling 1.1 percent in the first quarter, twice the drop forecast. Prices were down 4.5 percent on the same quarter last year, a far cry from the heady growth pace of 19 percent seen as recently as 2010.
• Greece's Venizelos says election could decide euro membership-report. Greece's Evangelos Venizelos, who will lead the ruling Socialists into the May 6 election, said in a newspaper interview on Tuesday that euro membership is not a certainty regardless of the outcome. "There are certain misconceptions that worry me: for instance, the misconception that whatever happens we are not going to leave the euro," Venizelos is quoted as saying in the Guardian.
• Fed is sugar-coating Congress's task -Fisher. The U.S. Federal Reserve's super-easy monetary policy is doing little to spur job creation and is giving Congress license to avoid tackling looming fiscal problems and the towering national debt, a top Fed official said on Monday. "By providing monetary accommodation, we are saying, in essence, 'Congress, you better eat your vegetables, or we are going to serve you a big plate of monetary cookies,'" Richard Fisher, president of the Dallas Fed, told the Milken Institute Global Conference. The Fed's program of bond purchases is pushing down the price of debt, interfering with a pricing mechanism that would otherwise force Congress to come to terms with its "fiscal misfeasance," he said. "We have children in Congress," he said. "They need to be disciplined."

Financial Times:

• Berlin Insists on Eurozone Austerity. Wolfgang Schäuble said the only way to achieve the economic growth that was needed in the region was to continue to rein in budget deficits and pay down debt, praising the tough new Spanish budget – which contains €27bn in new taxes and spending cuts – as an example. “The first precondition in order to have sustainable growth everywhere in Europe is fiscal consolidation,” Mr Schäuble said at a press conference with his Spanish counterpart, Luis de Guindos. “If now we talk about growth, it shouldn’t be understood as a change of direction. That would be a mistake.”

Evening Recommendations

• None of note

Night Trading

• Asian equity indices are -1.0% to +.5% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 165.0 +2.0 basis points.
  
• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 136.50 unch.
  
• FTSE-100 futures -.10%.
  
• S&P 500 futures +.11%.
  
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.05%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (BDX)/1.38
• (ADP)/.91
• (BIIB/1.48
• (PFE)/.56
• (VLO)/.28
• (EMR)/.80
• (OSG)/-1.13
• (FDP)/.82
• (ACI)/.18
• (MMC)/.61
• (AVP)/.28
• (ADM)/.60
• (TRW)/1.61
• (CMI)/2.22
• (DPZ)/.50
• (PFCB)/.36
• (WBMD)/-.18
• (OPEN)/.34
• (RGR)/.67
• (BRCM)/.55
• (JLL)/.21
• (GGP)/.21
• (BXP)/1.13
• (CECO)/.25
• (CHK)/.28
• (ODP)/.05
• (KLIC)/.14
• (AGCO)/.86

Economic Releases
10:00 am EST

• Construction Spending for March is estimated to rise +.5% versus a -1.1% decline in February.
• ISM Manufacturing for April is estimated to fall to 53.0 versus a reading of 53.4 in March.
• ISM Prices Paid for April is estimated to fall to 59.0 versus 61.0 in March.
  

Afternoon

• Total Vehicle Sales for April are estimated to rise to 14.4M versus 14.32M in March.
  

Upcoming Splits

• (DGAS) 2-for-1
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Kocherlakota speaking, Fed's Williams speaking, Fed's Lockhart speaking, Fed's Plosser speaking, China PMI and the weekly retail sales reports could also impact trading today.
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Falling into Final Hour on Rising Eurozone Debt Angst, Less US Economic Optimism, Less Financial Sector Optimism, Market Leader Weakness

Broad Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  
• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  
• Volume: Light
  
• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• VIX 17.32 +6.13%
  
• ISE Sentiment Index 106.0 +37.66%
  
• Total Put/Call .85 +1.19%
  
• NYSE Arms 1.18 -15.38%
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 95.15 +.91%
  
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 241.71 -.19%
  
• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 275.25 +.46%
  
• Emerging Market CDS Index 252.33 -.43%
  
• 2-Year Swap Spread 29.0 -1.25 basis points
  
• TED Spread 37.5 -.5 basis point
  
• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -45.0 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .09% unch.
  
• Yield Curve 166.0 -1 basis point
  
• China Import Iron Ore Spot $145.40/Metric Tonne unch.
  
• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -14.0 -6.0 points
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.26 -1 basis point
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating a -100 open in Japan
• DAX Futures: Indicating +3 open in Germany
  

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my Tech and Biotech sector longs
  
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my (EEM) short
  
• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

BOTTOM LINE: Today's overall market action is bearish as the S&P 500 trades near session lows on rising Eurozone debt angst, less financial/homebuilder sector optimism, high energy prices, rising global growth fears, weakness in some key market leaders and less US economic optimism. On the positive side, Energy, Oil Service and Coal shares are relatively strong, rising more than +.75%. Copper is rising +.27%. Major Asian indices rose around +.75% overnight(Shanghai Comp, Nikkei closed), led by a +1.7% gain in Hong Kong. The Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread is falling -2.3% to 384.85 bps. The Saudi sovereign cds is falling -1.2% to 119.0 bps. On the negative side, Homebuilding, Education, Construction, HMO, Bank, Steel, Networking and Hospital shares are under meaningful pressure, falling more than -1.25%. Financial shares have lagged throughout the day again. As well, small-cap and cyclical shares are relatively weak. Oil is rising +.2%, Gold is gaining +.2%, Lumber is falling -.8% and the UBS-Bloomberg Ag Spot Index is rising +.4%. Major European indices are falling around -1.0%, led lower by a -1.9% decline in Spain. Spanish equities are now down -18.2% ytd. The Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services Index is falling -1.0%. The Germany sovereign cds is gaining +2.76% to 85.50 bps and the US sovereign cds is gaining +1.5% to 38.22 bps(+37.0% in 9 days). US Rail Traffic continues to soften. The Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index continues to trend lower from its late-December peak. Moreover, the Citi US Economic Surprise Index has fallen back to early-Oct. levels. Lumber is -4.0% since its Dec. 29th high despite improving sentiment towards homebuilders and the broad equity rally ytd. Moreover, the weekly MBA Home Purchase Applications Index has been around the same level since May 2010 despite expectations for a strong spring home selling season. The Baltic Dry Index has plunged around -50.0% from its Oct. 14th high and is now down around -35.0% ytd. China Iron Ore Spot has plunged -19.7% since Sept. 7th of last year. Shanghai Copper Inventories are still near their recent all-time high and have risen +634.0% ytd. China's March refined-copper imports fell -8.0% on the month. Singapore Electronics exports decelerated to a gain of +2.8% in March from a +23.3% gain in February. The 10Y T-Note continues to trade too well, despite the big surge in the US sovereign credit default swap and the euro currency can't sustain a bounce. US Economic data releases later this week will likely also prove mildly disappointing. Concerns over the collision course Germany and France appear headed towards during the next escalation phase of the European debt crisis are intensifying. This will eventually become an even greater problem than the market currently perceives, in my opinion. US stocks remain extraordinarily resilient, however breadth and volume remain lackluster. For the recent equity advance to regain traction, I would expect to see further European credit gauge improvement, a further subsiding of hard-landing fears in key emerging markets, a rising 10-year yield, better volume, stable-to-lower energy prices and higher-quality stock market leadership. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-lower into the close from current levels on rising Eurozone debt angst, less US economic optimism, high energy prices, rising global growth fears, weakness in some key market leaders and less financial/homebuilder sector optimism.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Europe's Anti-Austerity Calls Mount as Elections Near. A recession in Spain and forecasts of rising unemployment in the 17-nation euro area are amplifying criticism of the German-led austerity agenda in election campaigns this week in France and Greece. With Spain’s largest unions leading marches involving thousands of protesters in 55 cities yesterday, Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy’s government battled to prevent Spain from becoming the next country to seek a bailout. In France, where the presidential-election runoff is set for May 6, Socialist frontrunner Francois Hollande pushed back against German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s focus on deficit reduction.
• Italy Faces 20 Billion-Euro Gap, Tremonti Tells Corriere. Italy may post an unexpected budget gap of as much as 20 billion euros ($26.5 billion) by mid-year due to the government’s austerity measures, former Finance Minister Giulio Tremonti told Corriere della Sera. The implementation of a new property tax and changes to the pension system passed in December will require extra financial resources, Corriere cited Tremonti as saying. The shortfall will also include as much as 8 billion euros to fund other programs such as Italy’s international peacekeeping missions, Tremonti said, according to the Milan-based newspaper.
• European Stocks Fall as Spain Contracts; AB InBev Sinks. European stocks fell for the first time in five days, extending the biggest monthly drop since September, as Spain entered a recession and U.S. business activity expanded at the slowest pace since November 2009.
• Banks in EU May Face 3% Capital Surcharges Under Basel Agreement. Bank regulators in the European Union may win powers to impose capital surcharges of as much as 3 percent on lenders’ activities at home and abroad as part of a compromise plan for applying Basel rules.
• Fed Chief Says Worst Not Over in Europe, Handelsblatt Reports. John Williams, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, said he’s “very worried” about the risk of a worsening debt situation in Europe and the “worst is not yet over,” Handelsblatt reported. It’s difficult for troubled European countries to return to normal economic performance when the business situation is weak and too many countries save money at the same time, Williams said in an interview with the German newspaper. That makes it more difficult to fight budget deficits and debt and European countries must find the “right balance” between austerity and growth, Handelsblatt cited Williams as saying. The U.S. economy is likely to grow 2.5 percent this year and there’s currently no need for new monetary measures, Williams told the newspaper.
• Sovereign, Corporate Bond Risk Rises, Credit Default Swaps Show. The cost of insuring against default on European sovereign and corporate debt rose, according to BNP Paribas SA. The Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe Index of credit- default swaps on 15 governments added 1.5 basis points to 275.5 at 3 p.m. in London. Contracts on the Markit iTraxx Crossover Index of 50 companies with mostly high-yield credit ratings climbed 5.5 basis points to 650.5. The Markit iTraxx Europe Index of 125 companies with investment-grade ratings rose 2.5 basis points to 140.5 basis points. The Markit iTraxx Financial Index linked to senior debt of 25 banks and insurers was 0.5 basis point higher at 242.5 and the subordinated index increased one to 401.
• IMF Ready to Lend Egypt $3.2 Billion at 1% Interest, Ahram Says. The International Monetary Fund is prepared to lend Egypt $3.2 billion at a reduced interest rate of 1 percent, the Muslim Brotherhood’s now disqualified presidential candidate said, the state-run al-Ahram reported. Khairat el-Shater, the Brotherhood’s chief strategist who was knocked out of the May race on electoral-law technicalities, said the offer came when IMF officials met with his group during a visit to Egypt earlier this month. He also said the U.S. deputy secretary of state had agreed to back Islamic bonds issued by Egypt abroad, the newspaper reported.
• Manufacturing Cools Even as U.S. Consumers Still Spend. Business activity in the U.S. expanded in April at the slowest pace since the end of 2009, adding to evidence that manufacturing is cooling. The Institute for Supply Management-Chicago Inc. said today its barometer decreased to 56.2 during the month, lower than the most pessimistic forecast in a Bloomberg News survey, from 62.2 in March. Readings greater than 50 signal growth. The pace of production eased in April, reflecting a recession in Europe and a slowdown in China that may keep holding back orders. A separate report today showed U.S. consumer spending and incomes climbed in March, indicating that household demand will help underpin the economy as long as the job market continues to heal. “We’re likely to see manufacturing growth ease a bit,” said Peter Newland, a U.S. economist at Barclays in New York. “A gradual improvement in the labor market is going to be key for consumer spending. This is consistent with further moderate growth.” Economists projected the purchasing managers’ gauge would fall to 60, according to the median of 55 estimates in the survey.
• LDK Solar(LDK) Cuts 5,554 Workers Amid Clean-Energy Shakeout. LDK Solar Co. (LDK), the world’s second- largest maker of wafers for cells, cut 5,554 jobs this year after plunging prices cut margins to a record low amid a renewable-energy shakeout that’s pushed at least eight solar companies into bankruptcy and prompted thousands of industry firings. LDK, which reported the lowest margins among its publicly traded peers, has cut its staff about 22 percent to 19,195 workers since the end of 2011, Chief Operations Officer Xingxue Tong said on a conference call today. The Chinese maker of polysilicon, wafers and solar panels has pared a third of its workforce since July, when it peaked at more than 28,000, in reaction to the “highly competitive” solar market.
• Illinois Faces 25% Cost Increase to Borrow $1.8 Billion. Illinois plans to sell $1.8 billion of general-obligation debt tomorrow as its relative borrowing costs may increase by almost a quarter. The tax-exempt deal for the state, rated lowest by Moody’s Investors Service, includes a 10-year segment that underwriter Jefferies & Co. plans to offer to investors at 1.85 percentage points above benchmark AAA securities, according to a person familiar with the sale.
• Occupy Wall Street Plans Global Protests in May Day Resurgence. Occupy Wall Street demonstrators, whose anti-greed message spread worldwide during an eight-week encampment in Lower Manhattan last year, plan marches across the globe today calling attention to what they say are abuses of power and wealth.

Wall Street Journal:

• Chinese Microblogs Survive Real-Name Rules - So Far. Sina Corp.(SINA) has escalated its warnings to investors that the rules requiring weibo sites to verify the identities of users remain a major threat to the future of weibo. The company’s annual report filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission this month added the real-name rules to an already long list of regulatory risks that come with owning an Internet business in China.
• Coke(KO) in Talks to Buy Monster(MNST) Beverage. Coca-Cola Co. is in talks to acquire Monster Beverage Corp., a move that could help the world's biggest soft drinks maker expand its presence in the growing energy-drinks market, people familiar with the matter said.
• ISDA Set to Decide on CDS Rules Revamp Within Weeks. When is a default a default and when does a default trigger payouts on credit default swaps? CDS market watchers and participants have been raising those questions for more than a year. But the issue has garnered greater urgency in the wake of grievances from CDS buyers who felt they weren’t adequately covered going into the Greek debt restructuring.
• Microsoft(MSFT) to Invest in Nook. Microsoft Corp. is making a $300 million investment in Barnes & Noble Inc.'s(BKS) Nook digital-book business and college-texts unit in a move that helps value the prized Nook business, the companies said. Microsoft will have a 17.6% stake in a new subsidiary for the businesses in a transaction that values them at $1.7 billion, the companies said. That compares with Barnes & Noble's current market capitalization of about $791 million and could fuel the argument of some analysts and investors that the digital business should be separated from the retail division.
• Egypt Military Bends to Islamists Will. Egypt's ruling military said it would appoint a new cabinet within 48 hours, awarding a major victory to Islamist politicians and cooling a political confrontation that threatened to gridlock Egypt's emerging democratic institutions. Field Marshal Hussein Tantawi's pledge to lawmakers on Sunday came hours after parliament speaker Saad Al Katatni, a senior member of the Brotherhood's Freedom and Justice Party, which dominates the legislature, suspended sessions on Sunday until the military agreed to dissolve the cabinet.
  

Fox News:

• Top EPA Official Resigns After 'Crucify' Comment.

CNBC.com:

• Spain Default Could Hit US Market 10%-20%; Economist. Spain's newly announced recession won't be ending any time soon and it could force the U.S. stock market to fall anywhere between 10 percent and 20 percent, economist Harry Dent told CNBC Monday.
• Euro Lending Growth Slows, Banks Spend ECB Cash on Bonds. Growth in lending to euro zone firms and consumers slowed in March as banks scaled up purchases of government bonds, showing that an ambitious funding drive by the European Central Bank has yet to trickle down to the real economy.
• Small Business Hiring Takes Step Back in April. Small business hiring slowed considerably in the April and employees saw a reduction in their hours, an independent survey showed on Monday, adding to signs of weakening in labor market conditions. Businesses added 40,000 new jobs, a step back from the 75,000 positions created in March, according to Intuit, a payrolls processing firm. The average workweek for small business employees dipped 0.14 percent.

Business Insider:

• People Are Freaking Out Over A Conservative Whose Twitter Account Keeps Getting Shut Down.
• The World's Biggest Companies Reveal What's Really Happening In The Global Economy.
• Chart of the Day: The #1 Reason The Housing Recovery Is So Slow.
• This Is The Technological Breakthrough That's Making People Wildly Bullish On America.
• All The Latest On Spain's Banking Disaster.
• NYC is Apparently Considering a Ban on Happy Hour.
  

Zero Hedge:

• Savings Rate Rises From 4 Year Low as Spending Tumbles, Income Boosted By Government Transfer Receipts. (graph)
• Goose-Stepping Hitler-ites Threaten Greece's Utopia.
  

Reuters:

• Emerging Markets Hold Breath as EU Banks Shrink. From Beijing to Bucharest, emerging market policymakers are as worried as those in Brussels that the rapid contraction in western European banks' balance sheets will compound the debt crisis and further delay economic recovery. In a striking indication of that concern, the International Monetary Fund said developments in the euro area pose a greater risk to the Asia-Pacific region than either a hard landing in China or a rise in commodity prices. "An escalation of the crisis with a disorderly, large-scale, and aggressive trimming of balance sheets could have a serious impact on Asia," the IMF said in a report released on Friday.
• Exclusive: China Mulls Guarantees For Ships Carrying Iranian Oil. China is considering sovereign guarantees for its ships to enable the world's second-biggest oil consumer to continue importing Iranian crude after new EU sanctions come into effect in July, the head of China's shipowners' association said. Tough new European Union sanctions aimed at stopping Iran's oil exports to Europe also ban EU insurers and reinsurers from covering tankers carrying Iranian crude anywhere in the world. Around 90 percent of the world's tanker insurance is based in the West, so the measures threaten shipments to Iran's top Asian buyers China, India, Japan and South Korea.
• China Wants "drastic" U.S., Russia Nuclear Arms Cuts. China called on the United States and Russia on Monday to make further "drastic" cuts in their nuclear arsenals and said all states with atomic arms should undertake not to be the first to use them. The development of missile defense systems which "disrupt" the global strategic balance should be abandoned, a senior Chinese diplomat also told a nuclear meeting in Vienna in a possible reference to U.S. plans that have angered Russia.
• US Homeownership Rate Drops to 15-Year Low in Q1. The share of privately owned U.S. homes fell to a 15-year low in the first quarter, government data showed on Mo nday, suggesting that falling house prices are discouraging Americans from being homeowners. The home ownership rate slipped to 65.4 percent, the lowest since the first quarter of 1997, the Commerce Department said. The rate was at 66.0 percent in the fourth quarter.
• Caterpillar(CAT) Braces for Strike Amid Labor Dispute. Caterpillar Inc is preparing for a strike at its Joliet, Illinois, plant after union workers there overwhelmingly turned down a new six-year contract during weekend voting.
• Portugal Risks Spillover From Spain's Misfortunes. Spain's deteriorating economy has made Portugal's job of riding out its debt crisis harder as its main trading partner slides into recession and the threat of contagion across the Iberian peninsula intensifies.

Telegraph:

• UK Business Loan Write-Offs to Hit Highest Since 1990s. Losses on corporate loans will hit their highest level since the 1990s recession this year, fuelled by a weak consumer sector and further crippling lending according to a leading group of economists.
• Debt Crisis Live: Germany maintains hardline stance on austerity, telling Spain it must not change direction, despite figures showing Spain officially fell back into recession in the first three months of the year.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -1.10%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) HMOs -2.40% 2) Homebuilders -1.92% 3) Steel -1.71%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• HUM, FIO, CRAY, KB, UNH, HBHC, OLN, HOLX, RCII, ABFS, SCHL, SOHU, ARBA, LPLA, UBNT, AKAM, UTHR, ONXX, NANO, BJRI, ARMH, DECK, PACW, CTCT, CALM, COLM, PAY, TEN, ABD, AWI, GNC and ALR
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) MRVL 2) XLB 3) PAY 4) XLY 5) EMR
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) ABFS 2) COP 3) GOOG 4) LDK 5) PG
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume
  

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value -.30%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Oil Tankers +.56% 2) Energy +.29% 3) Drugs +.25%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• RGR, WWW, GPRO, CPTS, TGE, WCRX, FRAN, ZAGG, STX, BKS, SUN, HAE, HAR, ETE and MDRX
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) SUN 2) MDRX 3) SU 4) BKS 5) EMN
  

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) MDRX 2) MDT 3) ENPH 4) KFT 5) EQT
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume