Tuesday, July 03, 2012

Bear Radar


Style Underperformer:

  • Large-Cap Value +.56%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Airlines -.59% 2) Utilities -.39% 3) Restaurants -.03%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
  • FOSL, BMY, HD, UNH, WLP, CPL, EEP, EEQ, ECHO, FIRE, PCYC, INWK and TCAP
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) XRX 2) SIRI 3) CTSH 4) GM 5) IYT
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) BMY 2) OLN 3) D 4) T 5) EXP
Charts:

Bull Radar


Style Outperformer:
  • Small-Cap Value +.91%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Coal +3.86% 2) Gold & Silver +3.15% 3) Oil Service +2.22%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • ROSE, SU, MCP, MODL, LQDT, NTGR, ALEX, EXBD, UCO, NSM, HP, USO, PTEN, SMBL, GM, CNSL and WLL
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) AGO 2) AGU 3) UCO 4) CIT 5) PZG
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) F 2) BA 3) INTU 4) ACHC 5) GS
Charts:

Monday, July 02, 2012

Tuesday Watch


Evening Headlin
es
Bloomb
erg:
  • Slovenia Heads for Sixth Euro-Area Bailout Request to Aid Banks. Slovenia is headed toward becoming the sixth euro-area nation to seek a bailout as faltering banks strain the finances of the first post-communist nation to adopt the common currency, said economists from London to Warsaw. The nation, which adopted the euro in 2007, is assessing the fiscal burden of covering the liabilities of its financial industry after Nova Ljubljanska Banka d.d., the largest bank, got a capital boost. Premier Janez Jansa, who said on June 27 that Slovenia risks a “Greek scenario,” told reporters two days later in Brussels the government is “doing everything to find a solution” and avoid the need for assistance. “It’s increasingly likely that Slovenia will be the next small economy asking for a European Union bailout, which would be focused on the banking sector,” Michal Dybula, an economist at BNP Paribas SA (BNP) in Warsaw, said by phone.
  • Denmark Says EU-Wide Regulator Hampers Bubble Fighting. Denmark is unwilling to sign up to a European banking authority and warns such a model could rob national regulators of the tools they need to prevent asset bubbles from forming in local markets. “It is very important that there are macro-prudential tools for each member state in order to make sure that you do not build up housing bubbles and other things,” Danish Economy Minister Margrethe Vestager said in an interview in Oslo yesterday. “Tools so that you can calibrate the risk weights in your banking system.” Denmark’s lenders have yet to emerge from a regional banking crisis triggered by a burst housing bubble more than four years ago. The country’s financial regulator has told banks to comply with stricter writedown standards after finding a number of lenders understated their impairment risk. Thanks to “first-hand experience, I have some reluctance in having a really thorough European authority, if that would mean that you would dismantle all national tools or national authorities in that respect,” Vestager said.
  • Spain's Waning Reserve Fund Risks Undermining Bonds: Euro Credit. Spain's social security system risks falling deeper into deficit this year, eroding the ability of its 67 billion-euro pension-reserve fund to prop up the Spanish bond market. The reserve account has almost doubled its holding of Spanish debt since 2008 as declining demand for the country's bonds led the fund to start replacing German, French and Dutch securities with national debt. As the welfare system posts a loss, the fund's ability to soak up new issues will diminish, adding to pressure on 10-year Spanish bonds, which yielded 486 basis points more than German Bunds yesterday. The reserve fund's assets, built up since 2000, is equivalent to about 11% of the central government's estimated outstanding debt for this year, and more than 75% of the planned bond issuance for 2012. Its waning firepower comes as foreign investors shun Spanish bonds and as domestic banks, which had been picking up the slack, begin to reduce their holdings.
  • Regulators Grappling With Libor Probe Said to Seek More Time. Barclays Plc (BARC)’s settlement of about $451 million with U.S. and U.K. regulators last week offered the first glimpse of what banks may have to pay to resolve a global probe of interest-rate manipulation. The question now is who’s next. The two-year investigation, which involves regulators on three continents, has touched as many as 18 financial institutions that help set London and Tokyo interbank offered rates for dollars, euros and yen. That number includes as many as 12 firms that have fired or suspended traders in connection with related internal probes of whether their employees tried to manipulate the rates known as Libor and Tibor.
  • BRICs Biggest Currency Depreciation Since 1998 to Worsen. The largest emerging markets, whose economies grew more than four-fold in the past decade, are making losers out of everyone from central bankers to Procter & Gamble Co. (PG) as their currencies post the biggest declines since at least 1998. For the first time in 13 years, the real, ruble and rupee are weakening the most among developing-nation currencies, while the yuan has depreciated more than in any other period since its 1994 devaluation. P&G, the world’s largest consumer-goods maker, cut its profit forecast for the second time in two months last week in part because of currency losses. Brazil’s Fibria Celulose SA (FIBR3), the biggest pulp producer, asked banks to loosen restrictions on dollar loans as the real hit a three-year low. Investors are fleeing the four biggest emerging markets, known as the BRICs, after Brazil’s consumer default rate rose to the highest level since 2009, prices for Russian oil exports fell to an 18-month low, India’s budget deficit widened and Chinese home prices slumped. Investors are bracing for more losses as economic growth slows. “I am quite bearish,” Stephen Jen, a managing partner at hedge fund SLJ Macro Partners LLP and a former economist at the International Monetary Fund, said in a phone interview from London. “When the global economy and capital flow slow down, it’s going to expose a lot of problems in these countries and make people stop and ask questions. A run on the currency could be particularly ugly.”
  • Microsoft(MSFT) Writing Down $6.2 Billion After AQuantive Sputters. Microsoft Corp. is taking a $6.2 billion writedown for almost the entire amount it paid for Internet-advertising company AQuantive Inc., signaling that its online division will perform worse than the company projected. The non-cash charge means the company will probably post a loss for the quarter, which ended in June. Before the statement, analysts had predicted that Microsoft would report profit of $5.3 billion in the period, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Wall Street Journal:

  • Bond Rift Divides Merkel Coalition. The increasingly radical measures needed to tame the euro-zone debt crisis are leading to a growing rift within German Chancellor Angela Merkel's governing coalition. Ms. Merkel's junior partner, the pro-business Free Democratic Party, is angry about the mounting hints in Berlin that Germany might ultimately agree to collective debt issuance by euro-zone governments, known as euro bonds. In recent days, FDP leaders have criticized Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble for suggesting repeatedly that Germany might be open to euro bonds once it has won other European countries' binding agreement to centralized controls over taxation and spending.
  • Wall Street Is Still Giving to President. President Barack Obama called Wall Street executives "fat cats,'' criticized their bonuses and tried to raise their taxes. The financial-services industry, in turn, has directed a stream of complaints toward the administration, fueling perceptions of a rift between the president and a key 2008 donor group. But, defying expectations, the securities and investment industry has remained an important part of the Obama fundraising effort. Mr. Obama and the Democratic National Committee raised more than $14 million from the securities and investment industry through the end of April, according to the nonpartisan Center for Responsive Politics.
  • Gadhafi-Era Spy Tactics Quietly Restarted in Libya. Libya's caretaker government has quietly reactivated some of the interception equipment that fallen dictator Moammar Gadhafi once used to spy on his opponents. The surveillance equipment has been used in recent months to track the phone calls and online communications of Gadhafi loyalists, according to two government officials and a security official. Two officials say they have seen dozens of phone or Internet-chat transcripts detailing conversations between Gadhafi supporters. One person said he reviewed the transcript of at least one phone call between Saadi Gadhafi, the exiled son of the former dictator, and one of his followers inside Libya.
  • In India, Subsidies Upend Car Sales. Auto Makers Scramble to Revamp Production Plans as Rising Gasoline Prices Shift Buyer Preferences. India's auto industry was one of the high-profile success stories of the country's recent boom years, attracting auto makers from around the world eager to supply a fast-growing middle class.
  • McGurn: Chief Justice Roberts Taxes Credibility. Did the umpire change his call because of the crowd?
  • Obama's Iran Loopholes. All 20 of Iran's major trading partners have sanction exemptions.
  • Keith Hennessey: A Strategy to Undo ObamaCare. To push through key parts of the Affordable Care Act, Democrats used the 'reconciliation' process. A Republican president, House and Senate can use reconciliation to repeal them.
MarketWatch:
  • Dealing with a double whammy in China. Commentary: Serious systemic flaws are now being laid bare. By most measures China’s economy has slowed quickly since the last quarter of 2011. Electricity production, the National Bureau of Statistics reports, grew 1.7% in April and May from last year. Over the past decade the annual growth rate was 12%. Also in April and May, the railroad ton-kilometer figure grew by 1.3% compared to the same months last year, down from the 6% growth seen from 2005 to 2011.
Business Insider:
Zero Hedge:
CNBC:

NY Times:

CNN:
  • Online poker CEO arrested for $430 million Ponzi scheme. Federal law enforcement officials arrested Raymond Bitar, chief executive officer of online poker site Full Tilt Poker, on Monday in connection with a $430 million Ponzi scheme his site was accused of running last year.
Rasmussen Reports:
  • Daily Presidential Tracking Poll. The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows Mitt Romney attracting 46% of the vote, while President Obama earns 44%. Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided.
Reuters:
  • California lawmakers approve foreclosure-protection law. California legislators on Monday approved a sweeping bill aimed at stopping abusive practices by mortgage lenders and helping homeowners avoid foreclosure. The legislation, among the most ambitious of its type in the nation, would bar banks from moving ahead with foreclosures while still negotiating with homeowners over loan modifications, a practice known as "dual-tracking." It would also allow lawsuits against banks for so-called "robo-signing," in which foreclosure documents are signed en masse without review.
  • US munis face $2 trillion in unfunded pension costs. U.S. states and localities have run up more than $2 trillion of unfunded pension liabilities, Moody's Investors Service said on Monday, citing data on plans offered by 8,500 local governments and over 14,000 individual entities. The Wall Street credit agency said that according to its estimate, the total liabilities for fiscal 2010 were more than three times the amount reported by local governments.
Telegraph:

21st Century Business Herald:
  • China Big 4 Banks Lent Less Than 190 Bln Yuan in June. Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd., China Construction Bank Corp., Bank of China Ltd. and Agricultural Bank of China Ltd. lent less than 190b yuan as of June 29, compared with 200b-250b yuan in May, citing data.
Evening Recommendations
  • None of note
Night Trading
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +1.0% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 170.0 unch.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 142.25 -3.25 basis points.
  • FTSE-100 futures +.39%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.07%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.17%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
  • None of note
Economic Releases
10:00 am EST
  • Factory Orders for May are estimated to rise +.1% versus a -.6% decline in April.
Afternoon
  • Total Vehicles Sales for June are estimated to rise to 13.9M versus 13.73M in May.

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

  • The weekly retail sales reports, ISM New York for June, RBA rate decision and the China HSBC Services PMI could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by real estate and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Rising Global Growth Fears, Euro Currency Decline, Earnings Worries, Tech Sector Weakness


Broad Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: About Even
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • VIX 17.28 +1.17%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 126.0 unch.
  • Total Put/Call .98 +7.69%
  • NYSE Arms 1.32 +48.34%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 109.87 -2.18%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 253.65 -2.91%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 274.71 -2.74%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 274.76 -3.82%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 25.0 +1.0 basis point
  • TED Spread 39.0 +1.0 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -56.75 -3.25 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .07% -1 basis point
  • Yield Curve 128.0 -6 basis points
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $133.50/Metric Tonne -.37%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -63.90 -3.6 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.08 -2 basis points
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei Futures: Indicating +33 open in Japan
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +24 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my medical and biotech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my (EEM) short
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long
BOTTOM LINE: Today's overall market action is mildly bullish as the S&P 500 hugs the flatline despite a falling euro currency, Obamacare/US fiscal cliff worries, more weak US economic data, earnings concerns, tech sector weakness and rising global growth fears. On the positive side, Telecom, Biotech and Hospital shares are especially strong, rising more than +1.0%. Small-cap stocks are outperforming. Oil is falling -1.6%. Major Asian indices were mostly higher, boosted by a .9% gain in Australia. Major European indices are higher, lifted by a +1.3% gain in France. The Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services Index is rising +1.68%. The Germany sovereign cds is falling -4.8% to 97.28 bps, the France sovereign cds is down -3.2% t o182.84 bps, the Spain sovereign cds is down -3.99% to 510.0 bps, the Italy sovereign cds is falling -3.96% to 468.46 bps, the Russia sovereign cds is down -4.0% to 221.33 bps and the Brazil sovereign cds is down -4.7% to 149.83 bps. Moreover, the European Investment Grade CDS Index is down -2.3% to 162.01 bps. On the negative side, HMO, Road & Rail, Gaming, Restaurant, Computer and Oil Tanker shares are under mild pressure, falling more than -.75%. The UBS-Bloomberg Ag Spot Index is rising another +1.7%, Lumber is falling -.74% and Copper is down -.82%. The Citi Latin America Economic Surprise Index is picking up downside steam, falling another -4.4 points today to -18.6, which is the weakest since mid-August of last year. The Spain 10y Yld is rising +.73% to 6.37%. US weekly retail sales have decelerated to a sluggish rate at +2.3%, which is the slowest since the week of April 5th of last year. US Rail/Trucking Traffic continues to soften. The Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index continues to trend lower from its late-December peak. Moreover, the Citi US Economic Surprise Index has fallen back to late-Aug. levels. Lumber is -10.0% since its March 1st high despite improving sentiment towards homebuilders and the broad equity rally ytd. Moreover, the weekly MBA Home Purchase Applications Index has been around the same level since May 2010 despite expectations for a strong spring home selling season. The Baltic Dry Index has plunged around -55.0% from its Oct. 14th high and is now down around -45.0% ytd. China Iron Ore Spot has plunged -25.0% since Sept. 7th of last year. Shanghai Copper Inventories have risen +130.0% ytd. The CRB Commodities Index is now technically in a bear market, having declined -22.8% since May 2nd of last year. Overall, recent credit gauge improvement is meaningful, but gauges still remain at stressed levels. As well, Spanish yields are still in the danger zone. The euro currency, oil, copper and lumber remain in intermediate-term downtrends. As well, the 10Y continues to trade too well as the yield is falling -6 bps today to 1.59%. I still believe the level of complacency among US investors regarding the rapidly deteriorating situation in Europe is fairly high. While Europe appears to have kicked-the-can again, I suspect investor euphoria will be fairly short-lived. The plans will do little to boost economic growth in the region. Massive tax hikes and spending cuts are still yet to hit in several key countries that are already in recession. Lack of competitiveness has not been addressed. It remains unclear whether or not Germany has really agreed to anything that changes the situation substantially. Moreover, the “solutions” for the European debt crisis I still hear being bandied about are only bigger kick-the-cans that if implemented will eventually lead to an even bigger catastrophe as Germany is engulfed, in my opinion. The European debt crisis is also really beginning to bite emerging market economies now, which will further pressure exports from the region and further raise the odds of more sovereign/bank downgrades. Uncertainty surrounding the effects on business of Obamacare, the "US fiscal cliff " and election outcome uncertainty will likely become more and more of a focus for investors as the year progresses. Finally, the upcoming earnings season could prove more challenging than usual for big multi-nationals given US dollar strength and the precipitous declines in some key parts of the global economy during the quarter. I still believe there is too much uncertainty on the horizon to conclude a durable stock market low is in place. For this year's equity advance to regain traction, I would expect to see a resumption in European credit gauge improvement, a subsiding of hard-landing fears in key emerging markets, a rising 10-year yield, better volume, stable-to-lower energy prices, a US "fiscal cliff" solution and higher-quality stock market leadership. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-lower into the close from current levels on Obamacare/fiscal cliff concerns, profit-taking, rising global growth fears, more weak US economic data, tech sector weakness, earnings concerns and more shorting.

Today's Headlines


Bloomberg:
  • Euro-Area Unemployment Climbs to Record on Spanish Cuts. Euro-area unemployment reached the highest on record as a deepening economic slump and budget cuts prompted companies from Spain to Italy to reduce their workforces. The jobless rate in the 17-nation euro area rose to 11.1 percent in May from 11 percent in April, the European Union’s statistics office in Luxembourg said today. That’s the highest since the data series started in 1995. Europe’s companies are under pressure to lower costs to protect earnings as the worsening fiscal crisis erodes exports and consumer spending. Companies including Deutsche Lufthansa AG, PSA Peugeot Citroen and Spanish news agency Efe are seeking to eliminate jobs to cope with flagging demand. “The overall picture is worrying, as problems in the real economy are being compounded by problems in financial markets,” said Mark Miller, an economist at Capital Economics Ltd. in London. “The tone of the business surveys has been pretty downbeat of late, suggesting that labor market conditions may deteriorates for some time yet. It’s very difficult to see an immediate end to this.” In the euro area, 17.561 million people were unemployed in May, an increase of 88,000 from the previous month, today’s report showed.
  • German Adviser Sees Risk in ESM Bond Buying, Handelsblatt Says. Easing the conditions for the euro area’s rescue fund to buy Italian sovereign bonds risks swamping the financial backstop, Oxford University economist Clemens Fuest wrote in a commentary in Handelsblatt. Using the planned European Stability Mechanism in an attempt to lower the borrowing costs of highly indebted countries might lead bondholders to sell massively to the ESM, exhausting its finances and forcing governments to commit more resources, Fuest, a member of the German Finance Ministry’s group of academic advisers, said in the op-ed article published in the Dusseldorf, Germany-based newspaper today.
  • Euro-Area Manufacturing Contracted for 11th Month in June. Euro-area manufacturing output contracted for an 11th straight month in June as Europe’s debt crisis sapped demand across the continent. A gauge of euro-region manufacturing held at 45.1 in May, London-based Markit Economics said today in a final estimate. That compares with an initial estimate of 44.8 on June 21.
  • Hollande Needs EU43 Billion 2012-13 Savings, Auditor Says. France needs as much as 43 billion euros ($54 billion) in savings this year and next, the national auditor said, setting the stage for budget cuts by Socialist President Francois Hollande. The coming year is “a crucial one in which the budgetary calculation will be difficult -- more difficult than thought because of slower growth,” Didier Migaud, who heads the audit body, told journalists today in Paris. “It will require an unprecedented brake on spending and higher taxes.
  • Spain Overestimating Bank Profit Risks Seeking Too Little. Spain, which for years underestimated losses at its banks, is poised to overestimate how much they can earn in an economy mired in recession. One of two outside advisers hired by the Spanish government to conduct stress tests on the nation’s lenders estimated that losses could reach 274 billion euros ($347 billion) in the next three years.
  • Peugeot May Lift Job Cuts Target to 10,000 Posts, Union Says. PSA Peugeot Citroen (UG) plans to eliminate more jobs in 2012 than previously announced, cutting as much as 10 percent of its French workforce, to reduce operational costs amid the region’s slumping auto market, a union official said. “They will raise the job cuts target in France alone to 8,000-10,000,” Christian Lafaye, the head of Peugeot’s second- biggest union FO, said in an interview, declining to say where he got the information. Europe’s second-largest automaker said in November it aimed to reduce headcount by 6,000 in the region.
  • UN Plan’s Failure to Force Assad Exit Seen as Russian Win. A United Nations-brokered peace plan for Syria is a victory for Russia because it lacks clear wording excluding Syrian President Bashar al-Assad from taking part in a transition of power, analysts in London and Washington said.
  • U.S. Manufacturing Contracts For First Time In Three Years. Manufacturing in the U.S. unexpectedly shrank in June for the first time in almost three years, indicating a mainstay of the expansion may be faltering. The Institute for Supply Management’s index fell to 49.7, worse than the most-pessimistic forecast in a Bloomberg News survey, from 53.5 in May, the Tempe, Arizona-based group’s report showed today. Figures less than 50 signal contraction. Measures of orders, production and export demand dropped to three-year lows. Assembly lines may be slowing as consumers temper purchases of vehicles and other goods and companies limit investments in new equipment. At the same time, export markets for manufacturers like DuPont Co. (DD) and Steelcase Inc. (SCS) are finding it more difficult as Europe struggles with a debt crisis and Asian economies including China weaken. The ISM’s U.S. production index decreased to 51, the lowest since May 2009, from 55.6. The new orders measure dropped to 47.8, the weakest since April 2009, from 60.1, and the gauge of export orders declined to 47.5 from 53.5. The slump in orders from the previous month was biggest since October 2001, after the September 11 terrorist attacks. The employment gauge decreased to 56.6 from 56.9 in the prior month. The measure of orders waiting to be filled fell to 44.5 from 47. The inventory index dropped to 44 from 46, while a gauge of customer stockpiles rose to 48.5 from 43.5. A figure less than 50 means manufacturers are reducing stockpiles. The index of prices paid decreased to 37 from 47.5.
  • Oil Drops as U.S. Manufacturing Shrinks in June. Oil fell after manufacturing in the U.S. unexpectedly shrank for the first time in almost three years in June. Prices tumbled as much as 3.4 percent as the Institute for Supply Management’s U.S. factory index fell to 49.7 in June from 53.5 a month earlier. Euro-area unemployment reached the highest level on record in May, the European Union’s statistics office said today. Oil’s decline followed a 9.4 percent jump June 29. “The ISM number strongly suggests that we’ve got a long haul before we see improvement in the economy and oil demand,” said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research in Winchester, Massachusetts. “Economic data combined with the spike on Friday are going to convince people to get out of the market.”
  • Berkshire’s(BRK/A) Pederson Says U.S. Businesses Scaling Back. Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK/A)’s furniture- rental unit saw a slowing in demand from business clients in the second quarter, indicating that firms are curbing spending on projects amid less optimism about the U.S. economy. Demand is “simmering compared to where it was at the beginning of the year, when it looked like the recovery, at least from our perspective, would have been pretty robust,” said Jeff Pederson, the new chief executive officer of Berkshire’s CORT Business Services Corp., the world’s largest provider of rental furniture.
  • Defense Cuts of $500 Billion Vex Officials as Ax Nears. With $500 billion in cuts to U.S. defense programs over 10 years set to begin on Jan. 2, industry contractors and analysts say the challenge isn’t only the amount of the cuts, it’s how they’ll be managed.
Wall Street Journal:
  • Money Funds Buck Euro-Zone Retreat. At a time when many money-market mutual funds are piling out of Europe, some are looking for more of it in their quest for higher returns. Eight of the 20 money funds with the most exposure to Europe, as measured by total assets at the end of May, increased their euro-zone holdings between last August and May 31, according to iMoneyNet, a research firm in Westborough, Mass. Managers of the eight money-market mutual funds that ramped up their European holdings include BlackRock Inc.(BLK) and Goldman Sachs Group Inc(GS).
  • Fresh Skirmishes Over ‘Obamacare’. The parties’ back-and-forth continued Monday following the Supreme Court’s health care decision.
  • Get Ready for the New Investment Tax. It really is happening. Until this week, investors were waiting to see what the Supreme Court would do about the 3.8 percentage-point surtax on investment income, part of President Obama's health-care overhaul.
CNBC.com:
  • Euro Zone Compared to 'Titanic' as Data Disappoint. The euro zone is lacking in “lifeboats” as the Titanic once was, a UK politician warned Monday as employment and manufacturing data painted a gloomy picture of the region’s prospects. Former Defense Secretary Liam Fox, from the UK’s ruling Conservative Party, said in a speech Monday: “Off the euro sailed, lauded as unsinkable as once the Titanic was, and still no one worried about the lifeboats.” Manufacturing shrank again in June and companies are preparing for more bad news to come, according to Markit's Eurozone Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), which was unchanged at 45.1 in June — the lowest reading in two years. Euro zone jobs figures also made for difficult reading, with unemployment in the region hitting its highest ever level of 11.1 percent in May. There are continuing worries about youth unemployment, with the countries worst-affected by the crisis suffering badly.
  • No Big Stimulus for China Even If Slowdown Worsens.
  • Stung by Recession, Young Voters Shed Image as Obama Brigade. In the four years since President Barack Obama swept into office in large part with the support of a vast army of young people, a new corps of men and women have come of voting age with views shaped largely by the recession . And unlike their counterparts in the millennial generation who showed high levels of enthusiasm for Mr. Obama at this point in 2008, the nation’s first-time voters are less enthusiastic about him, are significantly more likely to identify as conservative and cite a growing lack of faith in government in general, according to interviews, experts and recent polls.
  • Fed Will Take Away Punch Bowl When Time Comes: Williams. The Federal Reserve is prepared to take away the "punch bowl" of easy monetary policy when the time comes, although getting the timing right while keeping inflation low will be a tough job, a top Fed official said Monday.

Business Insider:

Zero Hedge:

Insider Monkey:
  • How Did Einhorn's, Ackman's and Paulson's Stock Picks Perform? Second quarter wasn’t very kind to most hedge fund managers‘ long positions. S&P 500 index ETF (SPY) lost 2.84% during the quarter. Most hedge funds’ large-cap stock picks performed even worse than this. In this article we will take a look at the performance of top hedge fund managers’ large-cap stock picks.
FINalternatives:
  • FoFs Manage Historically Low Percentage of HF Assets. Funds of hedge funds managed a historically low percentage of overall hedge fund assets in Q1 2012 according to research from eVestment|HFN. Funds of funds accounted for only 36% of assets in hedge funds at the end of the first quarter, down from 38% at the same time last year and 49% three years ago. Funds of funds managed an estimated $909.8 billion as of March 2012, compared to total hedge fund AUM of an estimated at $2.554 trillion.

Reuters:

  • World manufacturing downturn deepest in 3 yrs-PMI. Global manufacturing activity contracted in June at the fastest pace in three years, dragged down by the euro zone but also by weakness at U.S. and Chinese factories, a business survey showed on Monday. The JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.9 in June from 50.6 in May, dropping below the 50 mark that divides growth from contraction for the first time November, and its lowest reading since June 2009.
  • US May construction spending hits 2-1/2 yr high. U.S. construction spending rose to its highest level in nearly 2-1/2 years in May as investment in residential and federal government projects surged, a rare dose of good news for the flagging economic recovery. Construction spending increased 0.9 percent to an annual rate of $830.0 billion, the highest level since December 2009, the Commerce Department said on Monday. That followed an upwardly revised 0.6 percent rise in April.

Telegraph:

Die Welt:

  • The European Union can master the euro region's sovereign-debt crisis without resorting to jointly issued government bonds, EU Energy Commissioner Guenther Oettinger said. Chancellor Angela Merkel has made it clear that Germany won't support so-called euro bonds now or in the near future, Oettinger said.

Globe and Mail:

  • The Heart of Euro Crisis Still Untouched. When the markets aren’t expecting anything beyond more empty promises, delay and denial, even modest progress can take on the appearance of a genuine breakthrough in tackling a two-year-old debt crisis that has turned radioactive and spread to the core of the monetary union. But is this really the time to be loading up on European equities, Spanish bonds or the euro itself? Not in the view of crisis watchers who have seen this movie too many times.
Xinhua:
  • China Major Ports Face Coal Inventory Oversupply. Coal inventories at China's major ports of Qinhuangdao, Tangshan and Huanghua have reached record highs in recent days, citing official statistics. Coal supplies for the 3 ports were 18.3m tons on June 30.

Bear Radar


Style Underperformer:

  • Large-Cap Value -.50%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) HMOs -1.87% 2) Oil Tankers -1.83% 3) Road & Rail -1.11%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
  • TTC, GNRC, FST, PVA, UNH, GE, OREX, ARNA, LQDT, VRA, DLTR, PMTC, PRAA, QCOR, LIFE, ICUI, SIAL, ULTA, UBNT, OPEN, LULU, GPOR, GRMN, LIVE, ZBRA, CREE, QLIK, ANDE and UCO
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) XLB 2) MMR 3) MU 4) DVN 5) IYT
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) DLTR 2) FST 3) ADM 4) GMCR 5) HPQ
Charts: