Tuesday, July 10, 2012

Tuesday Watch


Evening Headlin
es
Bloomb
erg:
  • EU to Speed Spanish Bank Aid. European governments will jump-start as much as 100 billion euros ($123 billion) in loans to shore up Spain’s banks and may move the costs off the Spanish government’s balance sheet in an effort to shield the euro region’s fourth-largest economy from the fiscal crisis. Thirty billion euros will be lent by the end of July with the goal of eventually using the euro-area bailout fund to recapitalize banks directly instead of saddling the Spanish government with the debts, Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker said. The initial cash will “be mobilized as a contingency in case of urgent needs in the Spanish banking sector,” Juncker told reporters early today in Brussels after chairing a nine- hour meeting of euro-region finance ministers. The program “will succeed in addressing the remaining weakness in the Spanish banking sector.”
  • Merkel Winning Euro-Bond Clash as German Bunds Gain: Euro Credit. Investors are declaring German Chancellor Angela Merkel the winner in her battle against euro-region bonds as a way of easing the debt crisis. Since Merkel conceded to demands of relief for Spain and Italy at a EU summit on June 29 while opposing the sale of the bonds, the debt of the euro area's remaining AAA nations have outperformed U.S. Treasuries. Yields on 19-year debt from Germany, Finland and the Netherlands, whose credit-worthiness may be diluted by common borrowing with the likes of Spain, fell by an average 34 basis points since the EU meeting. "When you look at bund yields, the current levels are a strong signal that the market isn't really buying into this euro bond story otherwise we would have seen a massive pullback in yields across the AAA countries," said Michael Leister, a rates strategist at DZ Bank AG in Frankfurt. "Demand for safety and core products is still very strong."
  • Luxembourg’s Mersch Appointed to ECB Six-Member Executive Board. Luxembourg’s Yves Mersch, the euro region’s longest-serving central banker, was named to the European Central Bank’s Executive Board in a victory for German- style monetary rigor. Mersch, 62, was appointed by euro-area finance ministers at a meeting in Brussels yesterday, Guy Schuller, a spokesman for Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker, told Bloomberg News. He will move into the slot vacated by Spain’s Jose Manuel Gonzalez-Paramo, stripping Spain of its claim to a permanent seat on the Frankfurt-based central bank’s six-member Executive Board. Juncker chairs meetings of euro finance chiefs. After five months of wrangling, Mersch defeated a Spanish nominee, Antonio Sainz de Vicuna, head of legal services at the ECB, as well as Mitja Gaspari, former head of Slovenia’s central bank. As Luxembourg’s representative on the ECB’s wider policy- setting Governing Council, Mersch has earned a reputation as an inflation hawk. He is the only central banker in office continuously since the euro debuted in 1999. “Mersch will do his bit to reinforce the reputation of the ECB as an inflation fighter,” said Christian Schulz, senior economist at Berenberg Bank in London. “That could make markets nervous at times.”
  • Tucker’s Libor Testimony May Stoke Concerns About BOE Powers. Bank of England Deputy Governor Paul Tucker’s account of his involvement in the Libor scandal stoked new criticism of the bank’s oversight failures as he struggles to stay in contention for its top job next year. Tucker told lawmakers on Parliament’s Treasury Committee yesterday that he didn’t follow up concerns about Libor rates in 2007 because it looked at the time like a “dysfunctional” market, not a “dishonest” one. Barclays Plc (BARC) was fined a record amount last month for manipulating Libor from as early as 2005. “My concern is that the BOE clearly couldn’t see the wood for the trees,” committee member Andrew Leadsom said in an interview after Tucker’s testimony in London. “The amount of talk there was about Libor, it’s slightly incredible that a central banker didn’t see it as something to investigate.”
  • China’s Import Growth Misses Estimates for June. China’s imports rose less than anticipated in June while export growth slowed, adding pressure on the government to support expansion after inflation data yesterday showed demand softening. Inbound shipments increased 6.3 percent from a year earlier, the customs bureau said in a statement today in Beijing, compared with the 11 percent median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of 32 economists. Overseas sales gained 11.3 percent. The trade surplus rose to a three-year high of $31.7 billion. The increase in exports compared with a 15.3 percent gain in May.
  • Most Chinese Stocks Fall After Trade Report; Poly Real Declines. Most Chinese stocks fell after a government report showed imports rose less than anticipated in June while export growth slowed. Poly Real Estate Group Co. (600048), the nation’s second-biggest developer, declined 3.1 percent after forecasting lower first- half profits. China Southern Airlines Co. led gains for carriers after the nation’s economic planning agency said the government will lower fuel prices tomorrow. The Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) slipped 0.3 percent to 2,165.40 at 10:18 a.m. local time, with seven stocks falling for every two gaining. “The macro-economy figures won’t surprise the market and will continue to be ugly due to weak demand at home and abroad,” said Wu Kan, a Shanghai-based fund manager at Dazhong Insurance Co., which oversees $285 million. “Worries about the strength of the economy will weigh on the market and continue to drive stocks down.”
  • Oil Declines From Two-Day High as Norway Orders End to Strike. Oil dropped from the highest close in two days after Norway ended a strike by energy workers that had threatened to halt production by western Europe’s largest crude exporter. Futures slipped as much as 1.1 percent in New York after the Norwegian government ordered compulsory arbitration in the dispute, preventing a lockout of platform workers that was scheduled to start at midnight yesterday. Norway pumped 1.63 million barrels of oil a day in May, or about 1.8 percent of global consumption, data from the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate show. “Traders are probably taking the premium out of oil now that they think the strike will be settled,” said David Lennox, an analyst at Fat Prophets in Sydney. “It was looking like the strike was going to deteriorate further. That risk premium is certainly coming out of crude.
  • Paulson Funds Fell in June as Rally Undercut Euro Wager. John Paulson, the billionaire hedge- fund manager seeking to reverse record losses in 2011, posted declines in all his funds last month as rising stock markets undermined his wager that Europe’s sovereign debt crisis will worsen. The losses were led by a 7.9 percent drop in his Advantage Plus Fund, according to an update to investors obtained by Bloomberg News. That leaves the fund, which seeks to profit from corporate events such as takeovers and bankruptcies and uses leverage to amplify returns, down 16 percent this year.
  • RIM(RIMM) Customers Working on Contingency Plans. Research In Motion Ltd. (RIM) customers from GoDaddy Group Inc. to asset manager Thames River Capital UK Ltd. are preparing for the worst: the loss of the BlackBerry service their employees depend on to communicate. RIM’s stock has slumped more than 70 percent in the past year, and tumbled 19 percent on June 29 after the company posted a quarterly loss and delayed the BlackBerry 10 operating system, increasing the pressure on RIM to find a buyer or sell assets. While RIM has built infrastructure to ensure continued service, some customers are devising backup plans as RIM prepares to face shareholders at its annual meeting tomorrow.
  • Komatsu Has No Plans to Buy Joy Global(JOYG) After Study, CEO Says. Komatsu Ltd. (6301), the world’s second- biggest maker of dump trucks, has no plans to bid for Joy Global Inc. (JOY) after studying the U.S. company as there are few synergies to aid its foray into underground mining equipment.
  • Shipping Rally Ending as China Hoards Record Coal Heaps: Freight. Record coal stocks at power plants in China, the biggest consumer of the fuel, are threatening to reverse the rally in rates for commodity carriers and diminish returns for ship owners to the lowest in more than a decade. The utilities have 91 million metric tons in reserve and stockpiles at the largest ports come to more than 90 percent of capacity, according to the China Coal Transport & Distribution Association and SteelHome, a Shanghai-based research company. Panamax rates will drop 48 percent to an average of $5,000 a day this quarter, said Steve Rodley, managing director at Global Maritime Investments Ltd., which operates 64 ships. He correctly predicted a slump in earnings for larger Capesizes in March.

Wall Street Journal:

  • Mayor Cuts Workers' Pay to Minimum Wage. Unions representing city workers in Scranton, Pa., plan to ask a county judge to hold the mayor in contempt of court after he cut the pay of almost 400 municipal employees—including himself—to the state's minimum wage, saying the city can't pay the full salaries.
  • Political Spending by Unions Far Exceeds Direct Donations. Organized labor spends about four times as much on politics and lobbying as generally thought, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis, a finding that shines a light on an aspect of labor's political activity that has often been overlooked. Previous estimates have focused on labor unions' filings with federal election officials, which chronicle contributions made directly to federal candidates and union spending in support of candidates for Congress and the White House.
  • Obama Intensifies Tax Fight. Obama is launching a push to extend tax cuts for the middle class, as he seeks to shift the election-year economic debate away from the dismal jobs market.
  • Big Dealers Sweat as Swaps Face Reckoning. In a potential setback for large financial firms, regulators are expected to vote Tuesday on a rule requiring banks with more than $10 billion in assets to trade swaps through a central clearinghouse, according to a person familiar with the rule. The vote will be accompanied by a separate ruling on the precise definition of swaps, the financial contracts at the heart of the 2008 credit crisis. That definition will set in motion a series of other rules affecting trillions of dollars of financial contracts.
  • Alcoa(AA) Pinched by Low Prices. Alcoa Inc. sank to a slight loss in the second quarter as aluminum prices fell to their lowest levels in more than two years. The Pittsburgh-based concern, viewed as a bellwether because it is typically the first major U.S. company to report quarterly results, kicked off what is expected to be a painful earnings season on Wall Street, as other companies feel the effects of global economic weakness. Already, at least 42 companies have issued profit warnings for the latest quarter.
  • What's Wrong With the Federal Reserve? Business investment is held back by uncertainty about taxes and regulation. Printing dollars won't help.
MarketWatch:
  • Australia business confidence weakens. Aggressive interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia in May and June have so far failed to spark much of recovery for business, with confidence weaker in June and overall trading conditions only marginally better. National Australia Bank's business confidence index fell to -3 in June from -2 in May, while its business conditions index rose to -1 from -4 in the same period.
Business Insider:
Zero Hedge:
CNBC:

NY Times:

  • Consumer Bureau Proposes New Mortgage Disclosure Rules. As part of a continuing overhaul of the home mortgage market, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau on Monday issued proposed rules to bolster fairness and clarity in residential lending, including requiring a good-faith estimate of costs for homebuyers. The proposed rules have two central elements — the loan estimate and the closing disclosure — that would provide would-be homebuyers with a simple accounting of likely payments and fees to prevent costly surprises.

Washington Examiner:
  • Obama has outraised Romney in the Hamptons by 38.6%. You’ll hear plenty this week about Mitt Romney raising money in the Hamptons, and so I thought it was worth putting things in perspective. According to data from the Center for Responsive Politics, Romney has reported $119,550 from the 13 zip codes that count as The Hamptons according to Wikipedia. Obama has raised $165,867.
Washington Post:
  • Obama's Record on Outsourcing Jobs Draws Criticism From the Left. While White House officials say they have been waiting on Congress to act, Obama’s critics, primarily on the political left, say he has repeatedly failed in other ways to protect American jobs from being moved overseas. They point to a range of actions they say he should have taken: confronting China, reining in unfettered trade and reworking a U.S. visa program that critics say ends up sending high-tech jobs abroad.
CNN:
  • Closer to a bailout? FHA's mortgage delinquencies soar. Increasingly, FHA-insured loans are falling into foreclosure or serious delinquency. And taxpayers could ultimately be on the hook for FHA's growing number of troubled mortgages. The agency's finances are already on shaky ground, and additional losses from loans going sour could prompt the need for a federal bailout, experts said. "We can't escape this one," said Joseph Gyourko, a real estate professor at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School. "This is an arm of the U.S. government."
Boston Herald:
  • Texas Rejects 2 Pillars of Federal Health Care Overhaul. Texas turned down an expansion of Medicaid coverage and said it will not create a state-run health care insurance exchange, joining the chorus of states that are rejecting two key parts of the Obama administration’s health care overhaul.
Reuters:
  • Intel(INTC) bankrolls next-gen chipmaking, buys into ASML for $4.1 billion. Intel Corp will spend more than $4 billion to buy up to 15 percent of ASML and bankroll the Dutch company's research into costly next-generation chipmaking technology, a major vote of confidence in the European firm that sent its U.S. shares soaring 6 percent.
  • AMD(AMD) warns of 11 pct decline in revenue; shares slide. Chipmaker Advanced Micro Devices warned on Monday that its second-quarter revenue would be down about 11 percent from the prior quarter due to softer-than-expected sales in China and Europe and a weak consumer-buying environment, knocking its shares down 6 percent. The company had previously forecast second-quarter revenue would increase 3 percent from the first quarter, plus or minus 3 percentage points.
  • Patriot Coal(PCX) files for bankruptcy protection. Patriot Coal Corp filed for bankruptcy on Monday, the first U.S. coal producer to seek court protection since prices began to plummet as electricity producers turned to cheaper natural gas. The company and nearly 100 affiliates were part of the Chapter 11 filing in the U.S. bankruptcy court in Manhattan. Patriot said it had $3.57 billion of assets and $3.07 billion of debts, and has arranged for $802 million of financing to help it continue mining and shipments during the reorganization. Coal producers' shares have plummeted as natural gas prices tumbled to the lowest in a decade this year, and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency proposed new rules that would make it nearly impossible to build coal-fired power plants.
  • WD-40(WDFC) 3rd-qtr results miss estimates. Cleaning products maker WD-40 Company's quarterly results missed Wall Street estimates, hurt by lower sales in its American segment. The company also said it expects its full-year results to be at the lower end of its outlook owing to continued uncertainty in Europe and oil price volatility. WD-40 forecast full-year earnings of $2.33 to $2.45 per share on net sales of $353.0 million to $370.0 million. "We expect Europe to come in flat at best for the full year as compared to the prior fiscal year," the company said. The company's American segment, which contributes about 50 percent of total sales, reported a 5 percent drop.
  • US consumer watchdog to ban some fees for high-cost mortgages. The U.S. consumer finance watchdog proposed banning some fees and creating other new protections for people who take out high-cost mortgages. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau said on Monday its new rule would attack abusive practices surrounding mortgages with high interest rates or high fees by blocking "balloon payments," or lump sum amounts usually due at the end of a loan, capping fees lenders can charge for late payments, and banning fees to modify loans.
Telegraph:
  • ECB pledges action as southern Europe buckles. The European Central Bank has vowed to do whatever it takes to hold the euro together after the North-South gap in borrowing costs reached fresh extremes, pushing the two halves of monetary union closer to breaking point.

Economic Information Daily:
  • Non-performing loans of financial institutions in the eastern Chinese province of Zhejiang are rising, citing a person from a state-owned bank.
21st Century Business Herald:
  • China's Power Use Growth Slowed to About 4% in June. Growth of electricity use in China slowed to about 4% in June, from about 5% in May, citing preliminary data from local energy agencies.
  • China Housing Ministry to Increase Local Accountability. China's housing ministry plans to hold local governments more accountable for easing property market curbs, citing a person close to the ministry. The government should tighten home purchase restrictions and ask local authorities to implement curbs more strictly, citing Yang Hongxu, deputy head of E-House China R&D Institute.
Evening Recommendations
  • None of note
Night Trading
  • Asian equity indices are -.75% to unch. on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 173.50 +1.5 basis points.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 139.75 +.75 basis piont.
  • FTSE-100 futures +.06%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.42%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.35%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
  • (HITK)/.77
  • (WWW)/.44
  • (SHAW)/.58
Economic Releases
7:30 am EST
  • The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for June is estimated to fall to 93.3 versus 94.4 in May.

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

  • The EU Finance Ministers Meeting, German High Court ruling on ESM Agreement, Fed's Bullard speaking, weekly retail sales reports, IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index for July, JOLTs Job Openings report for May, 3Y T-Note auction, China Trade Balance and the (GIS) Investor Meeting could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Monday, July 09, 2012

Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on US "Fiscal Cliff" Worries, Rising Food/Energy Prices, Earnings Concerns, Rising Global Growth Fears


Broad Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  • Volume: Light
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • VIX 18.21 +6.49%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 103.0 -5.5%
  • Total Put/Call .99 -9.17%
  • NYSE Arms 1.66 -19.60%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 111.95 -.63%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 282.36 -.18%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 284.99 +.50%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 279.98 +.29%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 26.0 +.75 basis point
  • TED Spread 38.75 unch.
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -58.75 +.25 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .07% unch.
  • Yield Curve 125.0 -2 basis points
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $135.50/Metric Tonne +.30%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -62.60 -.1 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.07 unch.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei Futures: Indicating +3 open in Japan
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +13 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my medical/biotech sector longs and index hedges
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my (EEM) short, then covered some of them
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long
BOTTOM LINE: Today's overall market action is just mildly bearish as the S&P 500 trades slightly lower on rising eurozone debt angst, tech/commodity sector weakness, US "fiscal cliff" worries, rising food/energy prices, earnings concerns and rising global growth fears. On the positive side, Medical, Biotech, HMO and Drug shares are flat-to-higher on the day. Lumber is gaining +1.2% and Copper is gaining +.8%. On the negative side, Coal, Alt Energy, Semi, Disk Drive, Networking, I-Banking, Education and Airline shares are under meaningful pressure, falling more than -1.5%. Cyclicals are underperforming. Tech shares are especially heavy again. The UBS Bloomberg Ag Spot Index is jumping another +2.8%(this index has surged +21.8% in less than six weeks, which is a large negative for several key emerging market economies that still have inflation problems), Oil is rising +2.0% and Gold is up +.3%. The 10Y Yld is falling -4 bps to 1.51%. The Citi Latin America Economic Surprise Index is falling another -3.5 points today to -21.4, which is the lowest since early-Aug. of last year. Major Asian indices fell around -1.25% overnight, led down by a -2.4% decline in Chinese shares. The Shanghai Composite is the worst-performing Asian index year-to-date, falling -1.3%. The index is also testing its early Jan. lows and is down -2.5% in 5 days despite rising stimulus hopes and some better economic data, which is a big red flag. It appears as though investors are more focused on whether or not the Chinese let their real estate bubble begin to further inflate rather than other forms of stimulus. Major European indices are mostly lower, led down by a -.7% decline in Spain. Spanish equities are down -6.0% in 5 days and down -21.9% ytd. The Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services Index is falling -.33%. The Germany sovereign cds is rising +.7% to 99.74 bps, the Italy sovereign cds is gaining +1.33% to 521.99 bps(+11.5% in 5 days), the Spain sovereign cds is up +1.59% to 587.5 bps(+15.3% in 5 days), the China sovereign cds is up +2.7% to 119.51 bps and the Brazil sovereign cds is gaining +1.8% to 155.83 bps. The Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread is rising +1.8% to 478.38 bps(+13.5% in 5 days). Moreover, the European Investment Grade CDS Index is gaining +.5% to 172.55 bps(+6.5% in 5 days). US weekly retail sales have decelerated to a sluggish rate at +2.2%, which is the slowest since the week of April 5th of last year. US Trucking Traffic continues to soften. The Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index continues to trend lower from its late-December peak. Moreover, the Citi US Economic Surprise Index has fallen back to late-Aug. levels. Lumber is -3.0% since its March 1st high despite improving sentiment towards homebuilders and the broad equity rally ytd. Moreover, the weekly MBA Home Purchase Applications Index has been around the same level since May 2010 despite expectations for a strong spring home selling season. The Baltic Dry Index has plunged around -50.0% from its Oct. 14th high and is now down around -35.0% ytd. China Iron Ore Spot has plunged -25.0% since Sept. 7th of last year. Shanghai Copper Inventories have risen +138.0% ytd. Oil tanker rates have plunged recently, with the benchmark Middle East-to-US voyage down to 25.0 industry-standard worldscale points, which is the lowest since Oct. 2009. The CRB Commodities Index is now technically in a bear market, having declined -20.5% since May 2nd of last year. Spanish and Italian yields are back in the danger zone. Copper, oil and the euro are seeing mild bounces today on global central bank stimulus hopes and Iran saber-rattling/Norway oi production concerns/Saudi social unrest. Despite the rise in the CRB Index today, commodity equities are weak. As well, the 10Y continues to trade too well, which remains a red flag. I still believe the level of complacency among US investors regarding the rapidly deteriorating situation in Europe is fairly high. Key gauges of credit angst remain technically strong. The Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index is at -74.10 points, which is the lowest since mid-Sept. of last year. Massive tax hikes and spending cuts are still yet to hit in several key eurozone countries that are already in recession. A lack of competitiveness remains unaddressed. Moreover, the “solutions” for the European debt crisis I still hear being bandied about are only bigger kick-the-cans that if implemented will eventually lead to an even bigger catastrophe as Germany is engulfed, in my opinion. The European debt crisis is also really beginning to bite emerging market economies now, which will further pressure exports from the region and further raise the odds of more sovereign/bank downgrades. I continue to believe the bar for additional QE is likely higher than the Fed is letting on. QE was a huge mistake, in my opinion, as it played a large role in the current global slowdown by helping to jack up commodity prices, thus creating significant inflation problems in key emerging market economies. Officials in these economies slammed on the brakes, which cut demand for goods and services from the Eurozone right when they needed that demand the most. Uncertainty surrounding the effects on business of Obamacare, the "US fiscal cliff " and election outcome uncertainty will likely become more and more of a focus for investors as the year progresses. Finally, the upcoming earnings season could prove more challenging than usual for big multi-nationals given US dollar strength and the precipitous declines in some key parts of the global economy during the quarter. Stocks that miss earnings estimates are being severely punished despite the obvious headwinds. I still believe there is too much uncertainty on the horizon to conclude a durable stock market low is in place. For this year's equity advance to regain traction, I would expect to see a resumption in European credit gauge improvement, a subsiding of hard-landing fears in key emerging markets, a rising 10-year yield, better volume, stable-to-lower energy prices, a US "fiscal cliff" solution and higher-quality stock market leadership. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close from current levels on short-covering, global central bank stimulus hopes, strength in shares of market-leader (AAPL), a bounce in the euro currency and bargain-hunting. Long AAPL

Today's Headlines


Bloomberg:
  • Schaeuble Dismisses Quick Bank Union, Limiting Euro Aid Tools. Germany dismissed a rapid move toward direct bank recapitalization by the European rescue fund, limiting the tools for shoring up Spain’s banks as the euro-area debt crisis simmers. Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble dismissed “false expectations” raised by euro leaders last month that the economically troubled euro zone would act quickly to unify the oversight of its banking system. “It will take time, it’s complicated, it isn’t easy to do,” Schaeuble told reporters before a meeting of euro finance ministers in Brussels today. “Everyone knows that the setup of European bank supervision isn’t a trivial matter, but a huge job.” Germany’s go-slow approach reflected mounting public opposition to bailouts in northern Europe just as southern countries such as Spain and Italy clamor for official assistance to tame an increase in borrowing costs. A four-day slump in Spanish and Italian bonds puts euro- area governments under pressure to act, especially after the European Central Bank showed no signs of restarting its bond- buying program.
  • Spanish Yields Show Summit Shortfall, El-Erian Says: Tom Keene. Spanish bond yields at levels that have prompted bailouts signal last month’s European summit wasn’t enough to stem the region’s debt crisis, according to Pacific Investment Management Co.’s Mohamed El-Erian. Yields on Spanish debt due in 10 years rose to more than 7 percent today, corresponding to interest rates that spurred Greece, Portugal and Ireland to seek emergency loans. The difference in yield between the securities and similar-maturity German bunds climbed 10 basis points to 573 basis points, within 16 basis points of the record level set June 18.
  • Roesler Says Debt Crisis Threatens German Growth, Bild Reports. German Economy Minister Philipp Roesler said the European debt crisis may affect the economic development in Germany, Bild reported today, citing Roesler. While the government’s 0.7 percent growth projection still stands, it will evaluate this in the fall, Roesler said, according to the German newspaper.
  • VIX Falls to Cheapest Since '08 Before Earnings Reports. The biggest June rally in U.S. stocks since 1999 has pushed options prices to the lowest level before any earnings season in almost four years even as analysts predict profits will fall. The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, which tracks the cost of contracts on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, has lost 36 percent since its 2012 peak last month. It slipped 6.8 percent below the S&P 500’s 20-day historical volatility, a measure of actual swings, on July 6, data compiled by Bloomberg show. That’s the cheapest contracts have been one trading day before Alcoa Inc. (AA) reports profit since October 2008.
  • Fed’s Lacker Sees ‘Tepid’ U.S. Growth, Not Recession Risk. Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Jeffrey Lacker said that “some of the slowdown is real” for the U.S. economy though the reduction in growth isn’t severe enough to tip the economy back into a recession. “The numbers have been pretty tepid, we’re definitely experiencing a slowdown,” Lacker said today in a Bloomberg radio interview on “The Hays Advantage” with Kathleen Hays and Vonnie Quinn. “I don’t think this is fatal. I don’t think this is pushing us back into a recession right now.”
  • Mitsubishi UFJ Suspends Two London Traders on Libor Probe. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. (8306), Japan’s biggest publicly traded bank, suspended two London-based traders as investigators probe the suspected manipulation of benchmark interest rates, a person briefed on the matter said.
Wall Street Journal:
  • OECD Leading Indicators Point to Slowdown in Major Economies. Growth in most major economies is set to slow down in coming months, with only Brazil expected to experience a pickup, according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development's composite leading indicators. The indicators, which have proved reliable in the past, will come as a blow to any lingering hopes among policy makers around the world for a quick emergence from a period of sluggish activity that stretches back to the end of last year.
  • Draghi Signals ECB Ready to Do More. The European Central Bank is willing to do more if needed to support the euro bloc's struggling economy and banks, ECB President Mario Draghi signaled on Monday, days after officials lowered interest rates to record lows. "The ECB will keep the liquidity lines open to all solvent banks," Mr. Draghi said in testimony to the European Parliament. The central bank "retains full capacity to act in a firm and timely manner" to ensure price stability, he said.
  • Price of Plastic Going Up? Merchants May Get Surcharge Rights. Merchants may soon begin to impose a surcharge each time a customer pays with a credit card, a practice Visa Inc. and MasterCard Inc. currently prohibit. Retailers have long pushed for the right to charge extra to customers who pay with plastic versus cash, saying the practice would help defray their costs for accepting credit and debit cards. Merchants pay transaction fees on each card swipe.
  • WellPoint(WLP) to Buy Amerigroup(AGP). Managed-care company WellPoint Inc. said it plans to buy Medicaid-focused insurer Amerigroup Corp. for $4.46 billion to capitalize on a fast-growing market for the government-based health plan for the poor.
  • Egypt Court Rejects Plan to Restore Parliament. Egypt's constitutional court affirmed Monday that an earlier decision that led to the dismissal of Parliament was final, rejecting a challenge by the new president and moving the country another step closer to a constitutional crisis.
MarketWatch:
CNBC.com:
  • China's Christmas Exports Are Already Tumbling. Christmas comes but once a year. For Leo Ho, who runs a factory that makes plastic Christmas trees in Yiwu, China's export capital for novelty knick-knacks, it comes in July, when tree orders start rolling in. But early signs point to a lean Christmas for low-cost exporters like Ho, who told Reuters his sales were down 20 percent year-on-year in 2012.
  • Euro Zone Fragmenting Faster Than EU Can Act. Signs are growing that Europe's economic and monetary union may be fragmenting faster than policymakers can repair it.

Business Insider:

Zero Hedge:

MoneyNews:
4-Traders:
FINalternatives:
  • Quants Burned by Euro Whipsaw. It seems quantitative hedge fund managers are going to have to go back to school, thanks to the European debt crisis. Commodity trading advisers in June suffered their worst month in seven, losing 3.1% on the month, according to the Newedge CTA Index. Much of the pain came on the last trading day of the month, Friday the 29th.

Reuters:

  • UBS downgrades Visa(V), MasterCard(MA) on weak consumer spending. UBS Investment Research downgraded payment processors Visa Inc and MasterCard Inc to "sell" from "neutral," citing slower consumer spending in the United States and sluggish global economic growth. "We believe both companies' exposure to a slowing consumer spending backdrop makes a slowdown in key metrics simply unavoidable," UBS analyst John Williams wrote in a note and cut his price target on both the stocks. Williams is rated five stars for the accuracy of his earnings estimates on Mastercard according to Thomson Reuters StarMine data.
  • Russian budget banks on firm oil prices.
  • Spain faces budget risks despite looser target-document. Looser budget deficit targets for Spain may still prove difficult to reach, according to an EU document that demands the country be subjected to three-monthly checks, a move that will tighten supervision of the euro zone's fourth-largest economy.
  • Greek economy heading for 7 percent tumble. Greece's crippled economy will fall a steeper-than-expected 6.9 percent this year, a think-tank formerly run by the new finance minister said on Monday, a tumble that will hamper efforts to cut the deficit and bring yet more pain to Greeks. Such a decline would mean Greece's economy has shrink by a fifth since the end of 2007.

Politico:

  • John Boehner Dimisses Obama Tax Plan. Speaker John Boehner rebuffed President Barack Obama’s offer to cut taxes for the majority of Americans, decrying the move as “quixotic.” “In the wake of another weak jobs report, the president is doubling down on his quixotic call for the same small businesses tax hikes that have been routinely rejected by the House and Senate,” Boehner said in a statement. “How will these small business tax hikes create jobs? Even Democratic congressional leaders and former President Clinton have turned their back on this proposal.”

Telegraph:

Xinhua:

  • China Bans Government Purchase of Luxury Goods. China will prohibit government agencies from buying luxury goods starting Oct. 1, part of an effort to reduce corruption as the Communist Party celebrates the People's Republic's founding. New rules to reduce administrative costs of government and public institutions include tightening the use of public funds for receptions, vehicles and overseas trips, the official news agency said.

Bear Radar


Style Underperformer:

  • Mid-Cap Value -.92%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Education -2.4% 2) Disk Drives -1.9% 3) I-Banks -1.81%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
  • SIMO, CVLT, MCP, PEGA, NAV, IVN, BKH, LMNX, ADTN, MFRM, PAAS, ALLT, APKT, KIRK, PRSC, PCYC, FIRE, CHKP, CROX, TIBX, SPLK, AFFY, ANSS, CTXS, VAR, ATR, FCN, CFX, SWI, KRO and BPI
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) RCL 2) CHKP 3) EA 4) XLNX 5) APKT
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) AMTD 2) VAR 3) F 4) RIMM 5) WFC
Charts:

Bull Radar


Style Outperformer:
  • Large-Cap Growth -.20%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) HMOs +9.2% 2) Drugs +.28% 3) Hospitals +.04%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • AGP, CNC, OSUR, QCOR, AKRX, SYNC, WCG, MOH and HNT
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) WMB 2) SHAW 3) EA 4) FTNT 5) MAKO
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) RTN 2) AGP 3) BA 4) NAV 5) PEP
Charts:

Monday Watch


Weekend Headlines
Bloomberg:

  • Spain Braces For Renewed Rajoy Austerity as Tax Take Hemorrhages. Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy may unveil a third austerity round within days as his six-month- old government tries to avoid a second bailout amid hemorrhaging tax receipts. Rajoy said on July 2 that the time has come to “press the accelerator pedal” as his government attempts to bring down near record borrowing costs. Government officials have said they are considering raising taxes on gas and products that currently have a reduced rate, such as food, water, public transportation, hotels and restaurants. Spain’s return to recession is undermining efforts to cut the euro-area’s third-largest budget deficit as tax receipts shrivel. Ten-year bond yields climbed back above 7 percent last week amid concern that Europe’s sovereign debt crisis is worsening. Spain became the fourth euro-region country to seek a bailout in June to shore up banks burdened with bad loans. “I have my doubts because it is very difficult to boost receipts amid austerity,” Antonio Javier Ramos Llanos, economy professor at Madrid’s Universidad Pontificia Comillas, said in an interview. “Citizens see they are paying more tax and public services cost more. That doesn’t incite them to spend at all.” Receipts dropped 1.5 percent during the first five months of the year as higher levies on income, electricity and tobacco failed to compensate for a 10 percent slump in value-added tax receipts. Spending rose 12 percent as the state bailed out regional governments and interest payments surged 32 percent.
  • Rajoy Calls on EU to Deliver Debt Purchases as Spain Yields Rise. Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy said euro-zone countries must urgently implement decisions including government bond purchases agreed to in June as the country can’t finance its deficit under current conditions. The premier said he will announce additional measures this month to control the country’s budget shortfall. Spanish regional leaders must cut more spending as tax revenue slumps amid the country’s second recession since 2009, he said today in a speech in Navacerrada near Madrid. “It’s time to go from words to deeds,” Rajoy said. “Europe must comply as quickly as possible with the agreements its leaders reached in Brussels. The European project is at stake.” Rajoy is facing renewed pressure from bond investors after the European Central Bank took no action to lower yields at its July 5 meeting. Bond yields tumbled on July 2 after European leaders agreed to allow euro-area bailout funds to buy the debt of governments such as Spain and Italy. The additional yield investors demand to hold Spanish 10- year bonds rather than benchmark German bunds rose to 563 basis points yesterday from 486 basis points on July 2. Spain’s 10-year yield rose 62 basis points in the week that ended yesterday, July 6, the most since the five days through June 15, to 6.95 percent. It reached 7.04 percent yesterday, the highest since June 20.
  • Belgium Seeks Extra 78 Million Euros for Budget, La Libre Says. Belgium’s federal government must find an extra 78 million euros ($96 million) for this year’s budget, La Libre reported, citing an interview with Budget Minister Olivier Chastel. Belgium’s budget deficit is at 2.9 percent of gross domestic product, instead of the planned 2.8 percent, Chastel said. Any new spending must be compensated by savings, he said, according to the newspaper.
  • UBS, Credit Suisse Questioned by Finma Over Libor, Sonntag Says. The Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority, known as Finma, contacted UBS AG (UBSN) and Credit Suisse Group AG (CSGN) regarding investigations into how the Libor interest rate was set, Der Sonntag reported. Finma sent both banks detailed questions about the London interbank offered rate, the newspaper said, citing people close to the matter. Regulators in the U.S., Europe and Asia are investigating whether banks that help set key rates for $360 trillion of securities were involved in collusion. Barclays Plc was fined $451 million in the U.K. and U.S. on June 27 for submitting false Libor rates. “We are taking the investigations seriously and are fully cooperating with the authorities,” Tatiana Togni, a spokeswoman for UBS AG, said told Bloomberg News by telephone. Credit Suisse spokesman Marc Dosch, declined to comment when contacted by Bloomberg News. Tobias Lux, a spokesman for Finma, said the regulator is “following the Libor investigations closely and is in close contact with the banks concerned.”
  • Metro Sees Small Increase in German Consumption, Bild Reports. Metro AG (MEO) Chief Executive Officer Olaf Koch forecast a “small increase at best” in German consumption this year, which will have a “significant impact” on the German retailer’s business, Bild am Sonntag reported today, citing an interview.
  • Norway Banks Under Pressure as Asset-Bubble Risks Swell. Norway’s Finance Minister Sigbjoern Johnsen is putting pressure on the country’s banks to rein in mortgage lending to over-indebted households as the government grapples with the growing threat of a property bubble. Banks have “an obligation to say to people I think that by taking a loan this size you might get water over your head,” Johnsen said in an interview in Oslo. “Norwegian households have never had such a high proportion of debt compared to their net income, so that requires a keen eye and some concern.”
  • China Must Prevent Rebound in Property Prices, Wen Says. China must “unswervingly” continue its property controls and prevent prices from rebounding, Premier Wen Jiabao said yesterday, after the central bank cut interest rates and triggered a surge in property stocks. Local governments that introduced or covered up a loosening of curbs on residential real-estate must be stopped, Wen said during a visit to Changzhou city in eastern Jiangsu province, according to the official Xinhua News Agency. Restricting speculative demand and investment in property must be made a long-term policy, he said. Wen’s comments underscore the government’s determination to maintain restrictions on housing purchases. “We must unswervingly continue to implement all manner of controls in the property market to allow prices to return to reasonable levels,” Wen was quoted as saying when he met residents and local government officials in charge of affordable housing. “We cannot allow prices to rebound, or all our efforts will come to naught,” he said. Market expectations about property prices are changing and citizens are worried prices will rise again, he said. Signals in the market are “chaotic” and misleading and speculative information must be stopped, Wen said, according to Xinhua. Property controls are still in a “critical period” and the task remains “arduous,” Wen said yesterday. The government must “promote the study and implementation of changes to the property-tax mechanism, and to speed up the establishment of a comprehensive long-term mechanism and policy framework for controlling the property market,” Xinhua cited Wen as saying.
  • China’s Stock Futures Fall on Concerns About Economy, Property. Chinese stock-index futures fell after Premier Wen Jiabao said he won’t relax on property controls even as China’s economy faces “relatively large” downward pressure. Futures on the CSI 300 Index expiring in August, the most active contract, slid 0.5 percent to 2,468.80 as of 9:22 a.m. local time.
  • Chinese Firm to Build Power Plant in Central Iran, Times Reports. A Chinese company has invested some $500 million for the construction of a coal-fired power plant in central Iran, Tehran Times reported, citing Iranian Deputy Energy Minister Mohammad Behzad. Behzad, who didn’t name the company, said the power plant will be located in the city of Tabas in Yazd Province and will be able to generate 650 megawatts of electricity. The project requires a total of 7 trillion rials ($570 million) and is planned to start operating within six years, Behzad said, according to the newspaper.
  • Night of Frenzied Buying Portends Slowing China Car Sales. Major Chinese cities are increasingly resorting to quotas to curb vehicle emissions and ease traffic congestion. Mizuho Financial Group Inc. (8411) predicts that will slow auto sales, which could threaten carmakers such as General Motors Co. (GM) and Volkswagen AG (VOW) that depend on growth in the world’s largest vehicle market to counter declining demand in Europe.
  • Hong Kong May Revise Growth Forecast on Global Recovery Concerns. Hong Kong and Vietnam signaled growth may fall short of government forecasts this year as Asian policy makers stepped up efforts to protect their economies and currency markets from the worsening global outlook. Hong Kong may revise its 2012 economic forecast next month, Financial Secretary John Tsang said on July 7. In Vietnam, Deputy Prime Minister Vu Van Ninh said the country may miss its growth target and the central bank told lenders to cut borrowing costs on existing loans to help businesses. The Philippines unveiled plans to contain currency gains that may hurt exports.
  • Iran Seeks to Bypass Oil Curbs Using Local Fuel Exporters. An association of Iranian oil-product exporters will help the government bypass European Union sanctions and ship as much as 500,000 barrels a day, state-run Mehr news agency reported.
  • Thousands Protest Alleged Fraud in Mexico Presidential Election. Tens of thousands of Mexicans marched in the capital yesterday to protest alleged fraud and vote-buying in the country’s July 1 presidential election. Beating drums and waving flags, the protesters chanted “Out Pena,” in reference to Enrique Pena Nieto, whose victory restored the once-dominant Institutional Revolutionary Party, or PRI, to power after a 12-year hiatus.
  • Egypt’s Mursi Defies Military Over Parliament. Egypt’s newly elected President Mohamed Mursi issued a decree to reinstate the parliament, reversing a move by the former ruling military council and challenging the nation’s highest court. The decree also calls for an early parliamentary election to be held within 60 days of the approval of a new constitution in a public referendum, the official Middle East News Agency reported yesterday. The charter has yet to be drafted. “The decision will raise tension in the political arena, especially between the Supreme Council of Armed Forces and the Muslim Brotherhood,” Nabil Abdel-Fattah, political analyst at the Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies, said by phone. “By reinstating parliament, the president is challenging the rule of law and the judiciary.
  • Banks’ Living Wills Don’t Defuse Systemic Risk. The living wills were prepared in compliance with the 2010 Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act and are a major step forward in terms of revealing how global megabanks are structured. Yet they are shockingly incomplete and flawed in one crucial aspect: They neglect to explain how cross- border assets and liabilities would be handled in different legal jurisdictions.
  • VIX Falls to Cheapest Since '08 Before Earnings Reports: Options. The biggest June rally in U.S. stocks since 1999 has pushed options prices to the lowest level before any earnings season in almost four years even as analysts predict profits will fall. The VIX has lost 36% since its 2012 peak last month. It slipped 6.8% below the S&P 500's 20-day historical volatility, a measure of actual swings on July 6, Bloomberg data show. That's the cheapest contracts have been one trading day before Alcoa Inc. reports profit since October 2008.

Wall Street Journal:
  • Tighter Control for Euro Banks. Officials Move Toward Creating Agency With Power to Police Bloc's Big Institutions. Senior euro-zone finance officials, moving ahead on a plan to create a single overarching bank supervisor for all the countries in the 17-nation currency bloc, are settling on a framework that would create a new agency reporting to the European Central Bank to police the largest banks in the currency union, people involved in the discussions said.
  • New Jolt Looms for Investors: Earnings. Investors already fretting about the health of the world's biggest economies now face another worry: disappointing earnings. Companies begin reporting second-quarter earnings this week, starting with Alcoa Inc. on Monday. Already, 42 companies—including Ford Motor Co. and Texas Instruments Inc.—have warned investors that profits will be lower than initially expected, in large part because of slowing demand from customers around the world, particularly in Europe. Analysts say the darkening outlook is only partly baked into current share prices.
  • Retailers See Gay Population as Next Audience to Court. They are turning their attention to gays and lesbians, a group that wields substantial buying power but isn't fully integrated into mainstream advertising. Similar to other moves to attract different minority groups, the push comes with risks, as it could threaten the retailers' relationships with some of their longtime shoppers.
  • BofA(BAC) Linked to Drug Probe. FBI Says Mexican Cartel Funneled Money Through Bank to Horse-Racing Firm. A Mexican cocaine-trafficking cartel used accounts at Bank of America Corp. to hide money and invest illegal drug-trade proceeds in U.S. racehorses, the Federal Bureau of Investigation said. The alleged ties between the violent drug gang known as Los Zetas and the second-largest U.S. bank by assets were described in a 35-page affidavit filed in federal court in Texas last month. According to an FBI agent, a horse-buying and training business created to launder drug money had accounts at the Charlotte, N.C., bank.
  • America Already Is Europe. In spending, debt and progressivity of taxes, the U.S. is as much a social-welfare state as Spain. In 1938—the year my organization, the American Enterprise Institute, was founded—total government spending at all levels was about 15% of GDP. By 2010 it was 36%. The political right can crow all it wants about how America is a "conservative country," unlike, say, Spain—a country governed by the Spanish Socialist Workers Party for most of the past 30 years. But at 36%, U.S. government spending relative to GDP is very close to Spain's. And our debt-to-GDP ratio is 103%; Spain's is 68%. At first blush, these facts seem astounding. After all, Spanish political attitudes differ dramatically from our own. How can we be slouching down the same debt-potholed, social-democratic road as Spain? There are three explanations, all of which point to a worrying future for America.
Business Insider:
Zero Hedge:

CNBC:

  • Japan Machinery Orders Drop 14.8%. Japan's core machinery orders tumbled in May in a sign that lingering worries about Europe's debt crisis, a slowing Chinese economy and weak economic data from the United States are hindering the country's recovery from last year's devastating earthquake. Core machinery orders, which help to gauge the strength of capital spending, fell 14.8 percent in May, much more than the median forecast for a 3.3 percent decrease in a Reuters poll, as both manufacturers and service sector companies cut orders. Japan's current account surplus also slumped by 62.6 percent in May from the same period a year earlier, faster than the median estimate for a 14.5 percent annual decline, as rising energy imports weighed on Japan's trade balance.The weaker-than-expected data suggests that Japan's growth could lose momentum as companies scale back investment due to a weak global economy.
  • China June Inflation Cools to 2.2% From Year Ago.
  • Global Uncertainty to Weigh on US Growth: Fed Official. Slow U.S. economic growth will probably continue for quite some time as firms postpone hiring and investment in the face of an uncertain global economy, a top Federal Reserve official said on Monday. Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren, a dovish policymaker at the U.S. central bank, warned about the weak recovery in the U.S. labor market and the significant number of Americans who remain unemployed more than three years after the recession.
  • The tax man cometh to police you on health care. The Supreme Court's decision to uphold most of President Barack Obama's health care law will come home to roost for most taxpayers in about 2½ years, when they'll have to start providing proof on their tax returns that they have health insurance. That scenario puts the Internal Revenue Service at the center of the debate, renewing questions about whether the agency is capable of policing the health care decisions of millions of people in the United States while also collecting the taxes needed to run the federal government.

Wall Street All-Stars:

CNN:

Orlando Sentinel:

Reuters:
  • Floodgates on U.S. derivative reforms set to open. The U.S. swaps regulator is set to finalize this week a critical reform that will trigger banks and traders having to comply with costly new derivatives rules. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission will vote on Tuesday on a definition of a "swap," which will start a countdown on compliance dates for big swaps players to start registering with regulators and reporting their trades.
Financial Times:
  • Spain bows to ‘bad bank’ idea. Spain is ready to create a single “bad bank” to house the distressed assets of its teetering financial sector, as it prepares to finalise terms of an EU bailout that is dividing the eurozone and spooking markets.
  • China Said to Plan to Retaliate if EU Investigates Subsidies. An EU investigation into govt subsidies to Huawei and ZTE Corp would be met with Chinese investigations into European subsidies for agriculture, autos, renewable energy and telecom cos., Chinese officials said.
  • Detecting good and bad hedge fund managers.
The Telegraph:

Corriere della Sera:

  • Bank of Italy Governor Ignazio Visco said Italy needs to insist in spending cuts and needs to boost investments to foster economic growth, in an interview today. Italy's gross domestic product will probably fall 2% this year, with higher government spreads cutting growth for about .5%, he said.

Le Monde:

  • United Nations Efforts in Syria Failing, Annan Tells Le Monde. International efforts to find a political solution to the violence in Syria are failing, United Nations special envoy Kofi Annan told French newspaper Le Monde. “Evidently, we haven’t succeeded,” Annan, who also represents the Arab League, said in an interview with Le Monde published today.

Expansion:

  • Spain is preparing more spending controls for ministries as it bids to show its reining in its budget deficit.
El Pais:
  • Banks are stalling on making loans to some Spanish regions as they wait to see what form government financial aid for them may take.

The Border Mail:

  • Home Owners Facing Loan Repayment Disaster. MANY people who bought houses on Melbourne's fringes in recent years could be facing financial ruin after a slump in prices has left them owing more to the bank than their homes are worth, experts have warned.
China Daily:
  • China doesn't need a new stimulus like the 4t yuan package after the 2008 financial crisis to counter the global economic slowdown, former People's Bank of China adviser Li Daokui wrote in a commentary.
Global Times:
  • Chinese Government Suffers Credibility Crisis. Several recent social issues, such as protests in Shifang and the shopping mall fire in Jixian county, Tianjin, have showed that official accounts of the disasters were too weak when facing fierce Internet inquires. The crisis of credibility of the government has repeatedly kept issues from being wrapped up normally, leading to confused public opinion. Despite the efforts that governments at different levels have made to improve their credibility, in specific cases, the public has perceived the opposite. When a local government mishandles a public affair, an apology is often absent in the aftermath of the emergency, dragging the whole official system down.
Press TV:
  • Iran to Close Hormuz Strait if Threatened: Commander. The chairman of Iran’s Joint Chiefs of Staff has reiterated that the Islamic Republic does have the plan to shut down the strategic Strait of Hormuz but would only execute it if the nation’s security is threatened.
Weekend Recommendations
Barron's:
  • Made positive comments on (TWI), (WWW), (NFLX), (TIF) and (APC).
  • Made negative comments on (FFIV), (PLCM), (EMC), (IBM), (STX), (WDC), (ELX) and (QLGC).
Night Trading
  • Asian indices are -1.25% to -.75% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 172.0 +5.0 basis points.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 139.0 +3.5 basis points.
  • FTSE-100 futures +.19%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.27%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.22%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
  • (WDFC)/.61
  • (PSMT)/.59
  • (AA)/.06
Economic Releases
3:00 pm EST
  • Consumer Credit for May is estimated to rise to $8.0B versus $6.515B in April.

Upcoming Splits

  • (UA) 2-for-1
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Evans speaking, Fed's Fed's Williams speaking, final EU summit document; MOU on Spain bank aid, EU Finance Ministers Meeting, details of EU fiscal pact, China CPI/PPI and the German 10Y Bond Auction could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by financial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.