Style Outperformer:
Sector Outperformers:
- 1) Coal +7.29% 2) Steel -.94% 3) Airlines +.55%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
- ACOM, VOLC, BTU, PHG, OPEN and AFFY
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
- 1) MTG 2) NXY 3) SVU 4) ANN 5) MDRX
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
- 1) UPS 2) AGU 3) SNDK 4) CQF 5) ELY
Charts:
Weekend Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Worst Carry Trades Show Central Banks Reaching Stimulus Limits. The $4 trillion-a-day foreign- exchange market is losing confidence
in central banks’ abilities to boost a struggling world economy.
Rather
than sparking bets on growth, the JPMorgan Chase & Co. G7
Volatility Index, which more than doubled in 2007 to 2008 before policy
makers employed extraordinary measures to address faltering global
expansion, has dropped to a five-year low. While small foreign-exchange
swings historically favor the strategy of borrowing in low-yielding
currencies to buy those with higher returns, a UBS AG index that tracks
profits from the so-called carry trade has fallen to the lowest level
since 2011.
- Rajoy Wins Heartland Victory as Spaniards Lift Bailout Obstacle. Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy
extended his majority in the stronghold region of Galicia as
Spanish voters offered some respite to his 10-month-old
government and removed one obstacle to a European bailout.
- Greece Austerity Diet Risks 1930s-Style Depression: Euro Credit. Greece is spiraling into the kind of decline the US and Germany endured during the Great Depression. The economy shrunk 18.4%
in the past four years and the IMF forecasts it will contract another
4% in 2013 as Greece struggles to reduce debt in exchange for its $300 billion rescue programs. That's the biggest cumulative loss of output of a developed-country economy in at least three decades, coming within spitting distance of the 27% drop in the U.S. economy between 1929 and 1933.
- Asset-Backed Securities May Face Tougher Oversight in Basel Plan. Banks
trading asset-backed
securities may face tougher capital requirements and stricter oversight
from global supervisors amid concerns that regulation is failing to curb
excessive-risk taking. The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision is about to
embark on a “fundamental” review of how securitization is
regulated, Wayne Byres, the group’s secretary general, said in
an interview last week.
- China’s Stocks Drop Most in a Week on Earnings, Property Concern. China’s
stocks fell, sending the benchmark index to the biggest loss in a week,
on concern corporate earnings are worsening and local governments will
take further steps to cool the property market. Inner Mongolia
Baotou Steel Rare-Earth Hi-Tech Co. (600111), China’s biggest producer
of rare earth, declined the most in a month after third-quarter profit
slumped. Shaanxi Construction Machinery Co. plunged 7.4 percent and
China Vanke Co. led losses for real-estate developers after the China
Securities Journal said northwest Shaanxi province will prevent property
companies from reaping profit margins of more than 10 percent.
“Third-quarter earnings reports aren’t optimistic and corporate earnings
are still finding a bottom,” said Wu Kan, a fund manager at Dazhong
Insurance Co. in Shanghai, which oversees $285 million. “Given the current policy outlook, any relaxation on property prices is still far away.” The Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) dropped 0.5 percent to
2,117.66 as of 9:46 a.m. local time, heading for the steepest
loss since Oct. 11.
- Rosneft, BP Said to Near $28 Billion Deal for TNK-BP Stake. OAO Rosneft (ROSN) has agreed to the terms of a deal to buy BP Plc (BP/)’s half of its TNK-BP Russian venture,
releasing the U.K. company from a fractious nine-year alliance
and bringing state-backed Rosneft closer to becoming the world’s
biggest publicly traded oil producer, according to people
familiar with the talks.
- S. Korea Prepares to Evacuate DMZ Citizens After Threat. South
Korea is preparing to evacuate more than 800 residents along the
demilitarized zone after North Korea threatened to fire on activists
planning to send balloons
across the border carrying leaflets critical of its regime. While no orders to leave are currently in place,
authorities have been preparing citizens residing within the
civilian control line to evacuate if any signs of a possible
attack emerge, Park Kwang Hae, an official at Paju City Council,
said by telephone today.
- Lebanon Clashes Erupt in ‘Day of Rage’ to Protest Bombing. Supporters of Lebanon’s opposition
March 14 coalition clashed with police following the funeral of
an assassinated security official as they held a “Day of Rage”
protest against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Hundreds headed toward the Grand Serail, headquarters of
Prime Minister Najib Mikati, whom the group has blamed for the
Oct. 19 bombing that killed Brigadier General Wissam al-Hassan.
They pelted police with stones, spurring security forces to fire
into the air to disperse the crowd. Protesters turned violent after a top March 14 politician,
former Prime Minister Fouad Siniora, demanded that Mikati step
down. Mikati’s Cabinet is backed by the Shiite Muslim militant
Hezbollah group, an Assad ally and the main bloc in the pro-
Syria March 8 coalition. “Leave, Mr. Prime Minister, otherwise you’ll be accused of
covering up for the criminals,” Siniora told the cheering
crowds. “The Lebanese will no longer accept the continuation of
the Cabinet of assassination."
- Australia to Announce Cuts at Budget Review Tomorrow, Swan Says. The Australian government will
announce “significant” cuts at a budget update tomorrow as it
remains committed to restoring a surplus, according to Treasurer Wayne Swan. “The toughest conditions in the global economy in
generations have cut a swathe through traditional sources of
revenues,” Swan said today in his weekly economic note. “This
will require more savings to be found. The savings will be
significant.”
- Poor in India Starve as Politicians Steal $14.5 Billion of Food. Ram Kishen, 52, half-blind and half- starved, holds in his gnarled hands the reason for his hunger: a tattered card entitling him to subsidized rations that now serves as a symbol of India’s biggest food heist.
- Hedge Funds Cut Bets to 12-Week Low as Prices Drop: Commodities.
Hedge funds cut bullish commodity bets to the lowest since July as
speculation that governments in China and Europe aren’t doing enough to
boost growth drove prices to the biggest loss in five weeks. Speculators reduced net-long positions across 18 U.S.
futures and options by 4.4 percent to 1.18 million contracts in
the week ended Oct. 16, the lowest since July 24, U.S. Commodity
Futures Trading Commission data show. Gold bets slid 7 percent,
the first decline since Aug. 14, and those in silver fell 5.8
percent, the first drop in 12 weeks.
Wall Street Journal:
- Crash Puts New Focus on China Leaders. As a Chinese court prepares to expose the alleged crimes of former
Communist Party highflier Bo Xilai, censors and security officials have
been trying to bury a separate scandal that has emboldened critics of
President Hu Jintao and could complicate efforts to restore the party's
tarnished image. Just three days after Mr. Bo was fired
as party chief of Chongqing in March, the 23-year-old son of President
Hu's closest confidant crashed a black Ferrari at 4 a.m. on a
snow-slickened Beijing ring road. Ling Gu died on the spot, according to party insiders,
Chinese reporters and others whose accounts offer new insights into the
hushed-up incident. Two ethnic Tibetan women squeezed into the vehicle
were badly hurt, and one later died.
All details of the crash, including the name of the driver, were quickly suppressed.
- Chinese Investors Fear Chill in Canada.
- Law Firms Face Fresh Backlash Over Fees.
- Pennsylvania: Last-Minute Game-Changer? The State Hasn't Backed a GOP Presidential Candidate Since '88, but as Obama's Lead Narrows, Romney's Camp Eyes It.
- Spanish Vote Delivers Mixed Verdict. Premier's Party Controls Home Region, Trails Basque Nationalists, in Test of Rajoy's Crisis Management.
- Dorothy Rabinowitz: The Unreality of the Past Four Years. The Benghazi fiasco is a brutally illuminating portrait of the Obama White House in crisis mode.
Business Insider:
Zero Hedge:
CNBC:
Reuters:
- Jordan foils al Qaeda plot, arrests 11 militants: state TV. Jordan has foiled
a plot by an al Qaeda-linked cell to bomb its shopping centres and
assassinate Western diplomats, state television said on Sunday,
thwarting an attempt to destabilize the key U.S. ally. Security forces had detained 11
suspects, all Jordanians, in connection with the plot, which envisaged
carrying out attacks in the capital Amman using smuggled weapons and
explosives from Syria, according to security officials cited by television. The plot had been active since June. Minister
of Information Samih al Maaytah said the arrests underscored the
serious threat posed by radical "terror groups" seeking to undermine the
kingdom's long tradition of stability. A
key U.S. ally in the Middle East and Israel's peace partner, Jordan
enjoys close ties with Western intelligence agencies and has often been
targeted by al-Qaeda and other Islamist militants. The
cell had targeted two major shopping malls in the capital and was
planning a bombing campaign in the capital's affluent Abdoun
neighborhood, where many foreign embassies are located. A security source said the suspects had manufactured explosives "aimed at inflicting the heaviest losses possible".
- Japan exports tumble -10.3%, China row hits manufacturing mood. Japan's exports tumbled at their
sharpest pace since the aftermath of last year's earthquake in
the year to September, while manufacturers' mood hit its lowest
since early 2010, data published on Monday showed, a sign the
diplomatic row with China is further hurting the export-reliant
economy. The latest data reinforce concerns that Japan, the world's third largest economy, may slide back into recession as
sales to China and Europe sag amid the global slowdown and demand at
home led by rebuilding from last year's earthquake and tsunami disaster
loses momentum. They weak figures pile pressure on the Bank of Japan to
stimulate the economy, and it will likely cut its economic
forecasts and ponder further easing monetary policy at its Oct.
30 meeting, according to sources familiar with its thinking. Exports fell 10.3 percent in the year to September, against
a 9.6 percent drop expected by economists, down for four months
in a row, as shipments of cars, ships and electronics slumped,
Ministry of Finance data showed on Monday.
Financial Times:
- Fears rise of mortgage ‘ticking time bomb'. Claims
management companies that feed off compensation payments made by banks
are shifting their attention to interest-only mortgages as fears grow
that tougher regulation could open the doors to a future mis-selling
scandal. Lenders are increasingly concerned that a looming clampdown on these
mortgages, which do not require borrowers to pay off the capital each
month, will put the onus on them to ensure customers can afford to repay
the loans at the end of the term.
- Merkel to warn UK on Europe budget veto. Germany
is planning to warn Britain that it will seek to cancel next month’s
European budget summit if David Cameron, the prime minister, insists
that he will veto any deal other than a total freeze on spending. Angela Merkel, Germany’s chancellor, does not believe there is any
point in holding the budget summit to agree on a seven-year framework
for EU spending if Britain intends to veto any deal, say people close to
the negotiations.
- Democrats Threaten Payroll Tax Cut Consensus. Some
Democrats in Congress are seeking to include an extension of the $120bn
payroll tax cut in negotiations over the looming “fiscal cliff”,
shaking what had appeared to be a bipartisan consensus to allow the
measure to expire as planned at the end of the year. The move could complicate the budget talks due to begin after the
November presidential election and alarm rating agencies – since the
sunset of the payroll tax measure is the only big provision that both
parties seem comfortable directing towards deficit reduction.
Telegraph:
- IMF's epic plan to conjure away debt and dethrone bankers. So there is a magic wand after all. A revolutionary paper by the International
Monetary Fund claims that one could eliminate the net public debt of the US
at a stroke, and by implication do the same for Britain, Germany, Italy, or
Japan. "If you enacted this plan, it would devastate bank profits and cause a
massive deflationary disaster. There would have to do `QE squared' to offset
it," he said. The result would be a huge shift in bank balance sheets from private lending
to government securities. This happened during World War Two, but that was
the anomalous cost of defeating Fascism. To do this on a permanent basis in peace-time would be to change in the nature
of western capitalism. "People wouldn't be able to get money from
banks. There would be huge damage to the efficiency of the economy," he
said. Arguably, it would smother freedom and enthrone a Leviathan state. It might be
even more irksome in the long run than rule by bankers.
Personally, I am a long way from reaching an conclusion in this
extraordinary
debate. Let it run, and let us all fight until we flush out the
arguments. One thing is sure. The City of London will have great trouble
earning its keep
if any variant of the Chicago Plan ever gains wide support.
WirtschaftsWoche:
- IFO president Hans-Werner Sinn says Germany will end opposition to eurobonds sooner or later. Sinn said "political actionism" won't stop with the ESM as the money won't be enough despite the leveraging.
Welt am Sonntag:
- The European Central Bank rejects concrete yield targets for Spain, citing central bank officials. Spain would like the ECB to push yields on 10-year bonds below current levels while the ECB sees role in preventing tensions like in July this year when yields rose >7%. Different opinion may be reason for Spain reluctance to apply for the ESM.
Parapolitika:
- Greece's main opposition Syriza party, which as vowed to cancel the terms of the country's two international bailouts, would come in first if general elections were held now, a poll by Rass shows. Syriza would get 23.8% of the vote. Prime Minister Antonis Samaras's New Democracy party 22.7% and the Nationalist Golden Dawn party third with 9.2%% of the vote. 87.7% say the government should adopt tougher stance in talks with the troika.
Kyodo:
- Tokyo's metropolitan police department, Kanagawa prefectural Police and Osaka prefectural police will help monitor the water around Senkaky islands and prevent illegal landing by Chinese activists.
China State Oceanic Administration:
- Chinese marine patrol ships returned to waters near a group of disputed islands after earlier departing to avoid a typhoon. The ships are continuing to carry out patrols in the area.
The Peninsula:
- Wave of attacks by Boko Haram kills 23 in Nigeria. A wave of attacks by suspected Boko Haram Islamists in northeastern
Nigeria has killed at least 23 people and destroyed several buildings, a
hospital official and residents said yesterday. A nurse at the Potiskum general hospital spoke of 20 bodies being
brought to the morgue, while residents said three bodies were buried by
their families following explosions and shootings in the restive city on
Thursday. “We now have a total of 20 bodies brought in yesterday from the attacks
of the previous night. Initially, 11 bodies were brought and nine more
were received later,” a nurse who asked not to be named said. “Most of them have gunshot wounds but some had their throat slit. The
bodies included that of a police sergeant and a prison warder,” he said. Residents said the toll could be higher as some relations had taken some bodies from the streets for burial.
Weekend Recommendations
Barron's:
- Made positive comments on (AAPL), (GOOG), (TXI), (BBT), (NOV) and (EMC).
- Made negative comments on (BNNY).
Night Trading
- Asian indices are -.50% to -.25% on average.
- Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 117.0 +1.5 basis points.
- Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 93.75 +1.0 basis point.
- FTSE-100 futures -.31%.
- S&P 500 futures +.25%.
- NASDAQ 100 futures +.42%.
Morning Preview Links
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
- (BTU)/.34
- (STI)/2.02
- (HAS)/1.20
- (VFC)/3.49
- (CAT)/2.22
- (FCX)/.73
- (TXN)/.40
- (HMA)/.20
- (YHOO)/.25
- (VECO)/.31
- (WDC)/2.30
- (WYNN)/1.34
Economic Releases
Upcoming Splits
Other Potential Market Movers
- The Fed's Pianalto speaking and the German Finance Ministry Monthly Report could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the week.
U.S. Week Ahead by Reuters (video).
Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.
Stocks to Watch Monday by MarketWatch.
Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.
BOTTOM LINE:
I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly lower on rising
global growth fears, Eurozone debt angst, rising US "fiscal cliff"
concerns, Mid-east unrest, rising US election uncertainty, high
food/energy prices, more shorting, technical selling and earnings
worries. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral
signals and the Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the week.
S&P 500 1,433.19 +.32%*
The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.
*5-Day Change
Indices
- S&P 500 1,433.19 +.32%
- DJIA 13,343.51 +.11%
- NASDAQ 3,005.62 -1.26%
- Russell 2000 821.0 -.25%
- Value Line Geometric(broad market) 356.98 +.41%
- Russell 1000 Growth 657.68 -.57%
- Russell 1000 Value 717.86 +1.33%
- Morgan Stanley Consumer 843.15 +.37%
- Morgan Stanley Cyclical 993.28 +2.46%
- Morgan Stanley Technology 654.88 -1.02%
- Transports 5,082.16 +.74%
- Utilities 483.76 +1.74%
- Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 85.32 +2.81%
- MSCI Emerging Markets 41.73 +1.04%
- Lyxor L/S Equity Long Bias 1,059.85 +.62%
- Lyxor L/S Equity Variable Bias 801.22 +.33%
Sentiment/Internals
- NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 158,839 +1.23%
- Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 264 +265
- Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 21.2 -17.50%
- CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 206,472 -3.34%
- CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,580,619 +2.45%
- Total Put/Call 1.12 +8.74%
- OEX Put/Call 1.24 +30.53%
- ISE Sentiment 89.0 +2.30%
- NYSE Arms 2.50 +43.67%
- Volatility(VIX) 17.06 +5.70%
- S&P 500 Implied Correlation 49.31 +.10%
- G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 7.58 +1.07%
- Smart Money Flow Index 11,482.26 +.50%
- Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.568 Trillion +.20%
- AAII % Bulls 28.7 -6.28%
- AAII % Bears 44.6 +14.7%
Futures Spot Prices
- CRB Index 306.05 -.16%
- Crude Oil 90.05 -1.73%
- Reformulated Gasoline 269.63 -6.83%
- Natural Gas 3.62 +.56%
- Heating Oil 313.45 -2.65%
- Gold 1,724.0 -1.79%
- Bloomberg Base Metals Index 210.30 -.71%
- Copper 363.75 -1.66%
- US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 347.67 USD/Ton unch.
- China Iron Ore Spot 115.30 USD/Ton +.70%
- Lumber 310.80 +4.82%
- UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,666.79 +1.10%
Economy
- ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate +6.1% +40 basis points
- Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index -.1659 +5.90%
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 112.25 -.03%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 53.2 +3.8 points
- Fed Fund Futures imply 58.0% chance of no change, 42.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 10/24
- US Dollar Index 79.62 -.07%
- Yield Curve 147.0 +8 basis points
- 10-Year US Treasury Yield 1.76% +10 basis points
- Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $2.829 Trillion +1.28%
- U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 31.75 -15.56%
- Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 191.0 -2.88%
- Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 105.53 -22.57%
- Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 177.92 -9.68%
- Saudi Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 83.56 -1.87%
- Iraq Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 453.98 +3.77%
- China Blended Corporate Spread Index 376.0 -20 basis points
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.50% +3 basis points
- TED Spread 22.5 -1.25 basis points
- 2-Year Swap Spread 10.75 -.5 basis point
- 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -25.25 -.25 basis point
- N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 92.77 -4.04%
- European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 162.50 -8.87%
- Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 213.06 -3.52%
- CMBS Super Senior AAA 10-Year Treasury Spread 90.0 -7 basis points
- M1 Money Supply $2.401 Trillion +1.81%
- Commercial Paper Outstanding 943.60 -2.20%
- 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 365,500 +1,500
- Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 2.5% -10 basis points
- Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.37% -2 basis points
- Weekly Mortgage Applications 964.0 -4.19%
- Bloomberg Consumer Comfort -34.8 +3.7 points
- Weekly Retail Sales +1.70% +10.0 basis points
- Nationwide Gas $3.71/gallon -.10/gallon
- U.S. Heating Demand Next 7 Days 44.0% below normal
- Baltic Dry Index 1,010 +9.07%
- China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,177.71 -.84%
- Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 22.50 unch.
- Rail Freight Carloads 250,826 -.11%
Best Performing Style
Worst Performing Style
Leading Sectors
- Homebuilders +7.29%
- Drugs +2.29%
- Insurance +2.22%
- Defense +2.05%
- Energy +1.82%
Lagging Sectors
- Internet -2.98%
- Restaurants -3.34%
- Oil Tankers -5.03%
- Computer Services -5.61%
- Education -17.12%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (10)
- CYMI, ETH, AEGR, BMI, WCC, ISRG, PNFP, WLK, EWBC and PJC
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (9)
- LH, DGX, GOV, DBD, TZOO, FTNT, ALGN, RATE and APOL
Weekly Charts
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change
Today's Market Take:
Broad Market Tone:
- Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
- Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
- Volume: Slightly Above Average
- Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
- VIX 17.08 +13.64%
- ISE Sentiment Index 98.0 -19.67%
- Total Put/Call 1.15 +35.29%
- NYSE Arms 2.54 +237.60%
Credit Investor Angst:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 93.44 bps +2.81%
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 162.42 bps +2.58%
- Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 105.75 bps -1.19%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 213.81 bps +1.88%
- 2-Year Swap Spread 10.75 +1.0 basis point
- TED Spread 22.5 +.25 basis point
- 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -25.25 unch.
Economic Gauges:
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield .09% -1 basis point
- Yield Curve 148.0 -5 basis points
- China Import Iron Ore Spot $115.30/Metric Tonne -.17%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 53.20 -.7 point
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.51 -1 basis point
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei Futures: Indicating -130 open in Japan
- DAX Futures: Indicating -35 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Slightly Higher: On gains in my index hedges and emerging markets shorts
- Disclosed Trades: None
- Market Exposure: 25% Net Long