Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Draghi-Inspired Rally Risks Nations Dodging Reforms: Euro Credit. ECB President Mario Draghi's success in driving down borrowing costs for the most indebted euro nations risks lowering their incentives to tackle budget deficits, revive growth and reduce unemployment. "Having taken away the breakup risk for Europe, what they've got now is a crisis that is chronic rather than acute," said Stuart Thomson, who helps oversee $109 billion at Ignis Asset Management in Glasgow. "Europe is doing exactly what Japan has done. When there is a crisis, there will be a response, improvement and then complacency. Europe is in a complacency period now."
- ECB Said to Object to 15-Year Commitment on Anglo Irish Rescue. European Central Bank policy makers
rejected an Irish government plan designed to fund the rescue of
the former Anglo Irish Bank Corp. for at least 15 years,
according to three people with knowledge of the discussions.
- Monti Minister to Defend Paschi Bailout After Losses Uncovered. Finance
Minister Vittorio Grilli today will defend Italy’s planned 3.9
billion-euro ($5.3 billion) rescue of Banca Monte Paschi di Siena SpA as
lawmakers
question whether the lender deserves aid after hiding losses.
- China Communists to Control Size of Party Amid Corruption Fight. China’s
ruling Communist Party will control the size of the organization as it
seeks to weed out “unqualified members,” the official Xinhua News Agency
said, citing a meeting overseen by party leader Xi Jinping. Some party members are “corrupt and degenerate,” members
of the ruling Politburo said, affecting the party’s “vigor and
vitality,” according to the Xinhua report. The party had 82
million members as of last year.
- Beijing Recommends Residents Stay Indoors as Pollution ‘Serious’. Beijing recommended the city’s
residents stay indoors today to avoid exposure to “serious” levels of air pollution in the Chinese capital.
- IMF Set to Pare South Korea 2013 Growth Estimate to About 3%. The full-year expansion may be about 3 percent, compared
with a 3.9 percent estimate in September last year, country
mission chief Hoe Ee Khor said in an interview in Seoul after
meeting with South Korean officials last week.
- Tanker Glut Worsening as OPEC Cuts Most Since Recession: Freight. OPEC's deepest output
cut since the global recession in 2008 is creating the biggest surplus
of oil tankers in the Persian Gulf in at least three years and lowering
earnings for Frontline Ltd. and other ship owners. OPEC reduced daily
supply by almost 1 million barrels in the four months through December, equal to one fully loaded supertanker every two days, Bloomberg data show. Saudi Arabia, Iran and Iraq led the retreat, leaving 22% more ships than cargoes in the world's largest oil-producing region, the most for the time of year since at least 2010, according to weekly surveys of shipbrokers and owners by Bloomberg.
- Dubai Suitcases of Cash Circumvent Loan Rules: Mortgages. Cash is king in the Persian Gulf emirate’s rebounding
property market, limiting the power of regulators to control
rising prices that fueled the last property bubble by imposing
restrictions on mortgage loans to foreigners. Buyers from Iran to
Russia to Greece are paying cash in as many as 70 percent of Dubai home
purchases, up from 49 percent in 2007, according to
researcher Reidin.com.
- Egyptians Protest for Fifth Day, Opposition Spurns Talks. Egyptian security forces clashed
yesterday with protesters for a fifth day as the main opposition
leaders snubbed a call for dialogue by President Mohamed Mursi. The
violence came hours after Mursi instituted a state of
emergency in three restive provinces and said transgressors
would be dealt with firmly. Protests were held to mark the anniversary
of the bloodiest day in the 2011 uprising that ousted Hosni Mubarak. At
least one person was killed, adding to
a death toll of about 50 since Jan. 25.
- Caterpillar(CAT) Considers ‘All Options’ as Probe Continues. Caterpillar Inc., the largest maker
of construction and mining equipment, said it’s considering
“all options” to recover losses from false accounting at a
Chinese business that led to a $580 million writedown. The company is also seeing how it can hold those
responsible to account for the “multiyear, coordinated
accounting misconduct,” Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Doug Oberhelman said yesterday. “We are not done,” Oberhelman said on the company’s
fourth-quarter earnings conference call with analysts. “We are
putting in more effort to finish our investigation.”
- Watchdog Says U.S. Treasury Failed to Curb AIG(AIG), GM(GM) Pay. The
U.S. Treasury Department “failed to rein in excessive pay” at
bailed-out American International Group Inc. (AIG), General Motors Co.
(GM) and Ally Financial Inc. (ALLY), the rescue program’s inspector
general said. Sixteen of the 69 top employees at the three companies had
2012 pay packages worth at least $5 million and all but one had
total compensation of $1 million or more, the Special Inspector
General for the Troubled Asset Relief Program said in a report
today.
- BMC Software(BMC) Drops on Profit Forecast Miss. BMC
Software Inc. (BMC), a maker of programs that help companies update
servers and personal computers, fell in late trading after forecasting
fiscal 2013 profit that missed analysts’ estimates, a sign it’s
struggling to clinch big contracts. Shares declined as much as 9.5
percent to $40.26 in late trading after saying in a statement that
profit excluding some items will be $3.35 to $3.45 a share for fiscal
2013, which ends
in March.
Wall Street Journal:
- U.S. Wants Criminal Charges for RBS.
U.S. authorities are pushing for a settlement of interest-rate-rigging
allegations with Royal Bank of Scotland Group that would result in a
unit of the big British bank pleading guilty to criminal charges in
addition to paying a penalty, according to
people briefed on the negotiations. RBS executives are resisting
any guilty plea, fearful that it could lead clients to cut off activity
with the bank and that it could increase exposure to costly litigation,
some of these people said. The negotiations reflect a newly tough stance
by U.S. authorities, who until recently have faced criticism for rarely
pursuing criminal action against big banks.
- U.S. to Expand Role in Africa. Military
Pact With Niger Brings American Forces Closer to Conflict in Mali. The
U.S. signed an agreement Monday with the West African country of
Niger that clears the way for a stepped-up American military presence on
the edges of the conflict in neighboring Mali. The U.S. and France are moving to create an intelligence hub in Niger
that could include a base, near Mali's border, for American drones that
could monitor al Qaeda-linked militants in Mali's vast desert north,
U.S. officials said.
The moves show the extent to which the
U.S. and France are girding for what could be an open-ended campaign
against the militants in North and West Africa.
- Media Firms Probed on Data Release. Investigators Examined if Economic Figures Were Given Early to Clients; No Criminal Charges Seen. Law-enforcement authorities have conducted a wide-ranging
investigation into whether media companies facilitated insider trading
on Wall Street by prematurely releasing market-moving government data,
according to people familiar with the probe. The federal investigation examined whether news organizations used
high-speed transmission systems to give some investors access to
economic data a fraction of a second before the official release time,
according to officials familiar with the probe. Among the media
companies investigated were Bloomberg LP, Thomson Reuters Corp. and the
Dow Jones & Co. unit of News Corp, which are the leading conduits of
federal economic data to traders right after release, though not the
sole ones.
- Room for Favors in 'Cliff' Deal. The New Year's Day legislation that averted tax increases for
millions of Americans brought an unwelcome surprise for Elekta AB, a
Swedish maker of radiation tools designed to battle brain tumors.
A provision, inserted at the last minute, sharply cut Medicare payments
for the company's product while leaving unchanged those of its direct
competitor, Varian Medical Systems Inc., of Palo Alto, Calif.
- Too Soon to Celebrate for Europe's Banks. The rosy tint was nowhere more apparent than in the Davos-thinking
about battered European banks. The financial cognoscenti were uttering
phrases like "the beginning of the end" and "the worst is over," while
bank executives pointed to their companies' resilient dynamism, to coin a
phrase, in the face of adversity. "The trust in the euro and the
European banking sector has come back," proclaimed the head of a large
European lender. I wouldn't pop the champagne, spumante and cava just
yet.
- Immigration Breakout. A promising Senate framework, if Obama really wants a deal.
- John Taylor: Fed Policy Is a Drag on the Economy. While borrowers like near-zero interest rates, there is little incentive for lenders to extend credit at that rate.
As they meet this week, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and his
colleagues will be looking at an economic recovery that has been far
weaker than expected. Early in 2010 they predicted that growth
in 2012 would be a robust 4%. It turned out to be a disappointing 2%.
And as the recovery fell short of their expectations, they continued and
then doubled down on the emergency interventions used in the panic in
2008.
Fox News:
- Boy Scouts considering dropping nationwide ban on gay members, leaders. The Boy Scouts of America is considering dropping a longtime ban on
gay members, leaving such membership and leadership decisions up to
local sponsors. “The BSA is discussing potentially removing the national membership
restriction regarding sexual orientation,'' spokesman Deron Smith said
in a statement obtained by FoxNews.com. "This would mean there would no
longer be any national policy regarding sexual orientation, but that the
chartered organizations that oversee and deliver Scouting would accept
membership and select leaders consistent with their organization’s
mission, principles or religious beliefs."
- Draft UN climate report shows 20 years of overestimated global warming, skeptics warn. A preliminary draft of a report by the U.N.’s Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change was leaked to the public this month, and climate
skeptics say it contains fresh evidence of 20 years of overstated global
warming. The report -- which is not scheduled for publication until 2014 --
was leaked by someone involved in the IPCC’s review process, and is
available for download online. Bloggers combing through the report
discovered a chart comparing the four temperature models the group has
published since 1990. Each has overstated the rise in temperature that
Earth actually experienced. “Temperatures have not risen nearly as much
as almost all of the climate models predicted,” Roy Spencer, a
climatologist at the
University of Alabama at Huntsville, told FoxNews.com. “Their
predictions have largely failed, four times in a row... what
that means is that it's time for them to re-evaluate,” Spencer said.
CNBC:
- Yahoo(YHOO) Earnings Beat; Revenue Outlook Is Light. Yahoo reported fiscal fourth-quarter earnings that topped expectations,
but its first-quarter revenue guidance was a bit lower than analyst
estimates. The stock remained higher after-hours as Wall Street cheered
the search giant's revenue growth.
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider:
Forbes:
- The Next Great(er) Recession Now Baked In The Cake? It’s basic cause and effect. Monetary inflation causes economic busts. And the larger the monetary inflation, the larger the bust.
As brilliantly explained by the Austrians (see here), monetary
inflation distorts interest rate and price signals. As a consequence,
businesses embark on projects and consumers make purchases
and/or investment decisions that turn out to be mistakes, malinvestments
if you will, that sooner or later must be liquidated.
CNN:
-
Gun background checks surged in last 6 weeks. Gun sales soared at the end of last year, and the trend has continued into 2013. Since 1998, eight of the 10 highest days for gun
background checks have taken place since the school shooting in
Newtown, Conn., on Dec. 14, according to the FBI.
FINalternatives:
- Report: Hedge Funds Quit New York For Florida, Low Taxes. While New York may be irresistible to new hedge funds compared to
nearby Greenwich, Conn., it's got nothing on southern Florida, according
to one tabloid report. Hedge funds are flocking to Palm Beach County, drawn by low tax rates and, of course, the weather, the New York Post
reports. The county, located about 40 miles north of Miami, has
recently opened an office charged with luring hedge funds down from New
York. "We're not doing a multi-million-dollar marketing campaign," Kelly
Smallridge, head of the Palm Beach County Business Development Board,
told the Post. "We don't need to. They're coming to us."
Reuters:
- Seagate(STX) results beat estimates; sees lower 3rd-qtr revenue. Seagate
Technology Plc forecast third-quarter revenue below analysts'
estimates, on muted demand for its hard disk drives as consumers pick
smartphones and tablets over PCs, sending its shares down 4 percent
after the bell.
- Mali to receive $18.4 million loan from IMF. Mali, the
strife-torn West African nation, has been approved to receive an $18.4
million loan from the International Monetary Fund to help stabilize its
economy over the next 12 months, the IMF said on Monday.
- VMware(VMW) to cut jobs, disappoints with 2013 outlook. Software maker VMware Inc plans to cut about 7 percent of its workforce
as part of a restructuring, and it gave a cautious outlook for 2013 due
to a decline in U.S. federal government spending and the likelihood of
more tough economic times in Europe. The company's shares fell 14.6 percent in after-hours trading.
Financial Times:
- Hedge fund managers raise bets on stocks. Hedge
funds raised their bets on stocks in January, according to Credit
Suisse, adding to the sense of optimism on Wall Street as traders become
willing to take more risk. It comes as TrimTabs predicted inflows of
$55bn to US equity mutual
funds and exchange traded fund for January, an all-time record for the
first month of the year, suggesting broad based support for the stock
market rally among investors. Gross
leverage of hedge funds trading with the bank was 2.65 times their
underlying assets, above the highs of last year, he said. The net
proportion of trades that are long stocks, rather than short, is at its
highest since early 2011, before the European debt crisis began to roil
markets.
Telegraph:
- Davos: Britain faces up to reality as Europe clings to dreams. One of the most refreshing things about going to the World Economic Forum in
Davos is that it reminds you just how irrelevant to much of the rest of the
world the political and economic concerns of our little island really are.
- France 'totally bankrupt', says labour minister Michel Sapin. France's labour minister sent the country into a state of shock on Monday
after he described the nation as “totally bankrupt”. Michel Sapin made the gaffe in a radio interview, which left French President
Francois Hollande battling to undo the potential reputational damage. “There is a state but it is a totally bankrupt state,” Mr Sapin said. “That is
why we had to put a deficit reduction plan in place, and nothing should make
us turn away from that objective.”
Evening Recommendations
Oppenheimer:
- Rated (DGX) Underperform, target $53.
Night Trading
- Asian equity indices are unch. to +1.0% on average.
- Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 106.0 +.5 basis point.
- Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 84.0 -1.0 basis point.
Morning Preview Links
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
- (AKS)/-.35
- (EMC)/.52
- (IP)/.65
- (VLO)/1.20
- (DHR)/.86
- (CIT)/.61
- (LLY)/.79
- (LXK)/.90
- (BSX)/.11
- (HOG)/.31
- (TUP)/1.68
- (F)/.25
- (PFE)/.44
- (DHI)/.14
- (GLW)/.32
- (X)/-.76
- (BTU)/.26
- (ITW)/.91
- (NUE)/.30
- (RHI)/.41
- (AMZN)/.27
- (BRCM)/.74
- (RYL)/.50
- (BXP)/1.24
- (JLL)/2.62
- (PII)/1.23
- (GNTX)/.26
- (AMG)/2.43
Economic Releases
9:00 am EST
- The S&P/CS Home Price Index 20 City MoM% SA for November is estimated to rise +.7% versus a +.66% gain in October.
10:00 am EST
- Consumer Confidence for January is estimated to fall to 64.0 versus 65.1 in December.
Upcoming Splits
Other Potential Market Movers
- The $35 Bln 5Y T-Note auction, weekly retail sales reports, German consumer climate index and the TD Securities Mining Conference could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.
Today's Market Take:
Broad Market Tone:
- Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Higher
- Sector Performance: Mixed
- Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
- ISE Sentiment Index 125.0 -3.8%
- Total Put/Call 1.03 +18.39%
Credit Investor Angst:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 85.89 +1.19%
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 137.13 +.75%
- Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 99.33 +.67%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 213.90 +.42%
- 2-Year Swap Spread 16.5 +.5 bp
- 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -13.75 -1.0 bp
Economic Gauges:
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield .06% -1 bp
- China Import Iron Ore Spot $148.40/Metric Tonne -.13%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index .3 +2.3 points
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.53 +1 bp
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei Futures: Indicating -34 open in Japan
- DAX Futures: Indicating +7 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my retail/tech sector longs and emerging markets shorts
- Market Exposure: 50% Net Long
Bloomberg:
- Italian Consumer Confidence Declines to 17-Year Low. Italian
consumer confidence unexpectedly declined this month to the lowest in
at least 17 years as the country’s fourth recession since 2001 damped
optimism. The confidence index dropped to 84.6, the lowest since the
series began in 1996, from 85.7 percent in December, the Italian
statistics office Istat said in Rome today. Economists had
predicted an increase to 86, according to the median of 12
forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey.
- Goldman Sachs(GS) to Raise $1 Billion Selling Stake in ICBC. Goldman
Sachs Group Inc. (GS) is seeking to sell a $1 billion stake in
Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd. after the world’s biggest
lender by market value rebounded almost 50 percent from last year’s low.
The shares are being offered at HK$5.77 each, 3 percent lower than the
Chinese lender’s HK$5.95 (1398) closing price in Hong Kong today,
according to a term sheet obtained by Bloomberg News.
- Rehn Signals EU Might Ease Spain Budget Goal as Growth Suffers.
European Union budget enforcer Olli Rehn signaled he may seek to ease
Spain’s targets for cutting its budget deficit as austerity measures
deepen the country’s economic slump. EU officials will make a decision
on the best pace for Spain’s budget consolidation process when they
deliver a scheduled assessment of the program next month, Rehn said at a press conference in Madrid today. “If there has been a serious deterioration in the economy,
we can propose an extension of a country’s adjustment path,”
said Rehn, the EU’s economic and monetary affairs commissioner,
as he sat alongside Spanish Economy Minister Luis de Guindos.
“That’s what we did last year in the case of Spain.”
- Turkey Stocks Drop Most in 16 Months on Moody’s Ratings Upset. Turkey’s stocks fell the most in 16
months as a credit rating upgrade anticipated by some analysts
from Moody’s Investors Service failed to materialize. The benchmark ISE National 100 Index (XU100) dropped 4.2 percent,
the most since September 2011, to 81,165.81 at the close in
Istanbul. Of the 100 stocks, 98 fell, with trading volume at 38
percent above the gauge’s 30-day moving average. The measure hit
a record high on Jan. 24. The nation’s banking index slid 5.6
percent. The three-day decline in banking stocks was the
steepest loss since August 2011.
- Facebook(FB) Calls Reach
Record: Options. Options traders are more bullish on Facebook Inc.
shares than ever as the operator of the world's most-popular social
network expands into mobile and search services to boost revenue. The
ratio of oustanding calls to buy the stock versus puts to sell reached
1.51-to-1 last week, the highest level since options started trading
after the company's IPO in May, according to Bloomberg. The shares have
rallied 78% from a record low in September.
Wall Street Journal:
- Moody's Downgrades Six of Canada's Big Banks. Moody's
Investors Service Inc. MCO +0.28% downgraded six of Canada's largest
banks, citing concern about high consumer-debt levels and elevated house
prices—underscoring the headwinds buffeting what was once one of the
more resilient developed economies amid the global economic crisis.
Bank of Montreal, BMO +0.67% Bank of Nova Scotia, BNS.T +0.92% Caisse
centrale Desjardins, Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, CM.T +0.64%
National Bank of Canada and Toronto-Dominion Bank TD.T +0.34% were all
downgraded one notch, with a stable outlook, the New York-based
debt-rating firm said. TD, Canada's second biggest bank by assets behind
Royal Bank of Canada, RY.T +0.90% lost its top triple-A rating, the
only Canadian bank that had continued to maintain one. It is now rated
Aa1. The
"banks' exposure to the increasingly indebted Canadian consumer and
elevated housing prices leaves them more vulnerable to unpredictable
downside risks facing the Canadian economy than in the past," David
Beattie, a Moody's vice president, said in a statement.
CNBC:
- Caterpiller(CAT) Earnings Hit by China Fraud; Cautious for 2013.
Caterpillar earnings after adjusting for a big write-down in China
topped analysts' estimates Monday. The company said it expects earnings
to improve later this year, but its outlook shows it isn't banking on
it. The
world's largest maker of construction equipment posted sharply lower
profit due to a charge connected with accounting fraud at a Chinese
subsidiary and weak demand among its dealers. Caterpillar's bulldozers,
tractors, and other machines have been accumulating in warehouses due to
slowing economies in China, Europe, and the U.S.
- Fighting Climate Change Could Come at a High Price. President Barack Obama is making climate change a key issue in his
second term, but the cost of cutting the nation's carbon footprint is
likely to place a heavy burden on average Americans—and the U.S.
economy.Trying to be energy efficient and cutting greenhouse
gases might slow the growth of the U.S. gross domestic product anywhere
from two to four percentage points each year over the next 10 years due
to potential job losses, manufacturing slowdowns and switching energy
sources, according to research from the Stern Review on the Economics of
Social Change. That translates to nearly $1,000 a year for every American toward
higher energy bills and items like subsidies for solar and wind
programs—as well as taxes on gasoline to reduce oil consumption.
"You're
taking money out of people's budgets when you put on a gas tax and that
could really hurt lower incomes," said Chad Stone, chief economist at
the Center on Policy and Budget Priorities. "Purchasing power would be
pulled out of the economy and slow growth down," Stone added. That
burden would be especially difficult when the economy is barely growing
2%-3% now.
- At Fed, Nascent Debate on When to Slow Asset Buying. The
Federal Reserve has left little doubt about its plans for the next few
months, and thus little mystery about the statement it will release
Wednesday after the
latest meeting of its policy-making committee. The economy remains weak.
The Fed will keep buying bonds to hold down borrowing costs. Inside
the central bank, however, debate is once again shifting from whether
the Fed should do more to stimulate the economy to when it should start
doing less.
Business Insider:
PCBDesign:
- Semiconductor Revenue Down on High Level of Inventory. Chip inventory held by semiconductor
suppliers reached alarmingly high levels in the third quarter of 2012
amid weak market conditions, according to an IHS iSuppli Semiconductor
Inventory Insider Market Brief from information and analytics provider
IHS. Overall semiconductor
revenue declined by 0.7 percent sequentially during the fourth quarter
last year. The poor results came after inventory reached exceedingly
high levels by the end of the third quarter in 2012, amounting to 49.3
percent of total semiconductor revenue—more elevated than at any point
since the first quarter of 2006. Chip
stockpiles among semiconductor suppliers had actually gone down during
the final two quarters of 2011, showing a promising drawdown, as
depicted in the figure attached. But then inventories steadily ticked up
again after that, reaching 47.5 percent of total revenue in the second
quarter before hitting the current peak in the third—the latest time.
Reuters:
RTCC:
Style Underperformer:
Sector Underperformers:
- 1) Coal -2.61% 2) Homebuilders -2.01% 3) Steel -1.43%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
- JOSB, RPRX, PROV, PETM, UAN, DDD, NTE, HBHC, DBL, HLF, NFLX, PPG, USNA, MW, SSYS, TZOO, TTC, PERY, INGR, OSK, HEP, TGH, LPS, HAIN and YUM
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
- 1) HRB 2) WM 3) HYG 4) TGT 5) EWT
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
- 1) SCCO 2) BA 3) NFLX 4) JOY 5) AKS
Charts:
Style Outperformer:
Sector Outperformers:
- 1) Computer Hardware +.59% 2) Software +.48% 3) Networking +.39%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
- YOKU, IDIX, HES, OPK, GGC, DOLE and ARUN
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
- 1) WM 2) RPRX 3) KERX 4) EVEP 5) STSI
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
- 1) PG 2) XRX 3) PG 4) HES 5) BIIB
Charts:
Weekend Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Euro Crisis Seen Reaping Social Toll With Record Jobless. Euro-area jobless data this week
will expose the social cost of last year’s debt crisis and
recession on southern European economies as unemployment across
the region probably rose to a record in December. Unemployment in the
17-nation bloc climbed for a fifth month to 11.9 percent, according to
the median of 34 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. That result due
on Feb. 1 would show the highest jobless rate since records began in
1995.
- Merkel Rebuffs Rajoy’s Call to Do More to Boost Euro Stimulus. German
Chancellor Angela Merkel rebuffed calls by Spanish Prime Minister
Mariano Rajoy that euro nations in better financial health should help
the bloc out of its economic slump by spurring growth. Merkel, in the
Chilean capital Santiago today for a meeting
of European and Latin American leaders, said euro member states
need to focus on both fiscal consolidation and growth. Rajoy
said yesterday countries that have the funds should use them. “There is no either/or,” Merkel said today after meeting
with Chilean President Sebastian Pinera. “Confidence can only
increase if you have solid finances on the one hand, and on the
other hand have the structures of reform in such a way that the
economy can grow. We are trying to make a contribution.”
- U.K. Profit Warnings Rise to the Highest Since 2008, E&Y Says. UK company profit warnings in the fourth quarter rose 26% to 86, taking the 2012 total to 287, Ernst & Young LLP said in an e-mail report today.
- Tripling in Debt to $1.7 Trillion Drags on Economy: China Credit. Chinese companies are spending
more than ever to service debt after their borrowing almost tripled over
five years, prompting strategists to warn of rising default risk and a
threat to economic growth. Total short- and long-term borrowing by 3,895 publicly traded
non-financial companies rose to almost $1.7 trillion in their latest
filings, from $604 billion at the end of 2007, data compiled by
Bloomberg show. Financing costs, including interest, on all forms of
debt climbed to the highest level as a percentage of gross domestic
product last year, according to Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. Bernstein says that means less cash for investment to fuel the
world’s second-largest economy, while Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc
says the threat of defaults will hold back interest- rate
liberalization. The average 10-year yield for top-rated company bonds is
near a 13-month high at 5.27 percent, compared with the 2.6 percent
yield in a Bank of America Merrill Lynch global corporate index. “There’s just a lot more debt in China today than there was really
ever in the past, relative to nominal GDP,” said Mike Werner, a Hong
Kong-based analyst at Bernstein. “More and more of the country’s
resources have to be put to just financing outstanding debt, and that
itself is a headwind for economic growth.” While the nation exited a seven-quarter slowdown in
October-December as the government eased monetary policy, incoming
Premier Li Keqiang may need to confront the fading effects of government
support, a likely pickup in inflation and rising risks from shadow
banking. Price growth accelerated to a seven-month high in December,
driving up benchmark bond yields.
- Markets may be very volatile this year, Lou Jiwei, chairman of China Investment Corp., China's sovereign wealth fund, said at a forum in Beijing today. China should reduce short-term stimulus and improve labor-market flexibility, he said.
- China's Yi Warns on Currency Wars. China’s foreign-exchange regulator urged Group of 20 nations
to improve collaboration to avoid any so-called currency wars while
signaling he’s comfortable with the value of the yuan. On a
global level, there needs to be “better communication and coordination”
on foreign exchange among the G-20, Yi Gang, who is also a deputy
governor of China’s central bank, said in an interview at the World
Economic Forum’s annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland on Jan. 26. “Right
now, it is pretty much close to the equilibrium level,” he said,
referring to the Chinese currency’s exchange rate.
- PBOC's Pan: China Banks' Profit Growth Outlook 'Grim' for 2013.
The outlook is still "grim" after banks' income growth slumped in 2012,
Pan Gongsheng, a deputy governor at the People's Bank of China, said at a
forum in Beijing today.
- IMF's Lagarde Says Growth Outlook Is Fragile, Timid. IMF Managing
Director Christine Lagarde said in Davos, Switzerland, at the World
Economic Forum that the IMF would like Japan to have a mid-term debt
plan.
- Mursi Under Fire From Islamists, Opposition After Dozens Killed.
Small groups of protesters clashed
with security forces in Cairo early today, raising the prospect
of further bloodshed after 32 people were killed in fighting in
Port Said and authorities warned that a state of emergency may
be declared in the country. The unrest in the Egyptian capital built on
two days of
violence surrounding the second anniversary of the start of the
uprising that ousted Hosni Mubarak from power, and highlighted
increasing tensions in the nation since Mohamed Mursi’s election as
president in June. Mursi, who was fielded for office by the Muslim
Brotherhood after the vote, faces mounting criticism from secularists
and youth activists who contend he has put the Islamist group’s
interests ahead of the country’s and failed to fulfill any of his
pledges or revive an economy that, since the revolution, has grown at
the slowest pace for two decades.
- Egypt’s Mursi Declares State of Emergency Amid Mounting Unrest. Egyptian President Mohamed Mursi
declared a state of emergency and curfew in three provinces
wracked by days of unrest that have left almost 50 dead, and
said he was ready to take additional steps to protect the
nation.
In a late-night televised address yesterday, Mursi said
attacks on civilians and state installations won’t be tolerated
and that he had ordered security forces to deal with
transgressors with “all firmness and strength” to halt further
violence. The Islamist leader also said he was calling on
leaders of political parties to gather for a national dialogue
today -- an offer his opposition has so far largely shunned.
- Israel Deploys Missiles as Netanyahu Sees Syria Collapse. Prime
Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that Israel must prepare for the
threat of a chemical attack from Syria as the army deployed its new Iron
Dome anti- missile system near the border with its northern neighbor.
Netanyahu told members of the Cabinet during the weekly meeting in
Jerusalem today that Israel faces dangers from throughout the Middle
East. Top security officials held a special meeting last week to
discuss what may happen to Syrian stocks of chemical weapons amid the
civil unrest there, Vice Prime Minister Silvan Shalom told Army Radio.
“We must look around us, at what is happening in Iran and its proxies
and at what is happening in other areas, with the
deadly weapons in Syria, which is increasingly coming apart,”
Netanyahu told his Cabinet, according to an e-mailed statement.
- Obama Picks Rejected as Court Casts Doubt on Recess Power. President Barack Obama violated the
Constitution by making appointments to the federal labor board
without Senate approval, a U.S. appeals court said in a ruling
that calls hundreds of board decisions into question and may
extend to the head of the new consumer finance agency. The U.S. Court of Appeals in Washington sided with
Republican lawmakers in a unanimous opinion.
- Ryan Says Balanced Budget Needs Spending Cuts, Not More Revenue. Reduced spending for entitlement
programs such as Medicare is needed to eliminate deficits within
10 years, said U.S. House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan. “Our goal is to get cuts in reforms that put us on a path to balancing our budget within a decade,” Ryan, a Wisconsin
Republican, said today on NBC’s “Meet the Press” program.
“Spending is the problem, revenues aren’t the problem.”
- Kim Vows North Korean Retaliation Against U.S. for Sanctions. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un vowed “high-profile” retaliation
against the U.S. and its allies for increasing United Nations sanctions
against his regime, building on last week’s pledge to test a nuclear
device. Kim convened a meeting of foreign affairs and security
officials on Jan. 26 to discuss the “grave situation” caused by “hostile
forces,” the official Korean Central News Agency said yesterday. “The
U.S. has reached its height in its anti- DPRK strategy,” KCNA said,
referring to the country’s official name, Democratic People’s Republic
of Korea.
- Norway Data Shows Earth’s Global Warming Less Severe Than Feared. New estimates from a Norwegian
research project show meeting targets for minimizing global
warming may be more achievable than previously thought. After the planet’s average surface temperature rose through
the 1990s, the increase has almost leveled off at the level of
2000, while ocean water temperature has also stabilized, the
Research Council of Norway said in a statement on its website. After
applying data from the past decade, the results showed temperatures may
rise 1.9 degrees Celsius if Co2 levels double by 2050, below the 3
degrees predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. “The
Earth’s mean temperature rose sharply during the 1990s,” said Terje
Berntsen, a professor at the University of Oslo who worked on the study.
“This may have caused us to
overestimate climate sensitivity.”
- Hedge Funds Boost Bullish Bets by Most Since July. Hedge funds increased bullish
commodity bets by the most in six months as accelerating growth
from China to the U.S. boosted prices for a seventh week. Speculators raised net-long positions across 18 U.S.
futures and options by 11 percent to 758,048 contracts in the
week ended Jan. 22, the biggest gain since July 3, U.S.
Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. Bullish crude-
oil bets reached a four-month high, while those for soybeans
climbed by the most since March. Investors are the most bullish
on cotton since February 2011.
- Twitter Is Said to Be Worth $9 Billion as BlackRock(BLK) Buys Shares.
Twitter Inc. was valued at about $9 billion after early employees sold
$80 million in shares to a fund managed by BlackRock Inc. (BLK), three
people with knowledge of the matter said. The sales were overseen by Twitter Chief Operating Officer Ali Rowghani, said one of the people yesterday, who asked not to
be identified because the transactions were private.
Wall Street Journal:
- European Companies Brace for Write-Downs. Europe's blue chip companies are set to wipe billions of dollars from
their balance sheets this year, writing down the value of assets
acquired over recent years as the economic slowdown makes cash-flow
forecasts look increasingly optimistic.
The write-downs will serve as a report
card on executives' records in making shrewd acquisitions and are
important because they will reduce company earnings by a corresponding
amount and potentially diminish shareholder returns.
The charges will also indicate how
pessimistic executives are about the current business outlook in Europe
and influence how investors value companies.
- Algeria Probes Possible Role of Local Workers in Attacks. Algerian authorities are investigating whether any local employees from the
In Amenas gas plant aided terrorists who attacked the remote Saharan facility
this month, amid survivors' accounts that the gunmen arrived with basic
knowledge of the plant.
- Device Makers Add Fees to Cover Obamacare Tax. Some medical-device companies faced with a new tax meant to help
finance the health law are hoping someone else will pick up the tab:
their hospital customers. Companies including feeding-tube
supplier Applied Medical Technology Inc. and respiratory-valve maker
Hans Rudolph Inc. quietly added new surcharges or warned hospitals of
price increases to cover the new 2.3% tax on device sales that went into
effect Jan. 1, according to letters and invoices from nine
manufacturers sent to hospitals that were reviewed by The Wall Street
Journal.
- Treasury Gets a Citibanker. From Wall Street failure to the pinnacle of finance in four short years. There was a time when you had to be successful on
Wall
Street to become secretary of the Treasury. Now along comes presidential
nominee Jack Lew, whose only business credential is a stint at the most
troubled too-big-to-fail bank. During the darkest days of the
financial crisis Mr. Lew served as the chief operating officer of
Citigroup's Alternative Investments unit (CAI). When Mr. Lew took this
job in January 2008, the unit was already infamous for overseeing
"structured
investment vehicles" that hid mortgage risks outside Citi's balance
sheet. It also housed internal hedge funds that were in the process of
imploding. CAI no longer exists. At the end of Mr. Lew's first
quarter on the job, the unit reported a $358 million loss. Things got
much worse after that but Citi stopped breaking out CAI results in its
earnings releases. The unit was eventually shuttered and many of its
assets were sold.
CNBC:
- Europe's Crisis Not Over Say Bankers, Policymakers. International bankers and finance ministers warned on Saturday that
Europe's crisis was not over even though the euro currency is now
stabilized, it will take years to overcome economic malaise and mass
unemployment in Europe. After a private meeting of leading
commercial bankers, government officials, central bankers and trade
union officials, Swedish Finance Minister Anders Borg told Reuters:
"There is a clear divide between the financial markets, who think a lot
of this is fixed, and the people in the real economy and particularly
from our side as the governments."
- US Facing Fresh Financial Shock to Economy. The $1.2 trillion in automatic spending cuts that Barack Obama once
promised to avert are looking increasingly likely to occur because of
entrenched politics in Washington, threatening a shock to confidence in
the US economy.
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider:
IBD:
Washington Post:
- The wrong man to be defense secretary by Senator Jim Inhofe. Our military and national security interests are at a critical
juncture. As a former colleague of Chuck Hagel’s, I know that he is a
good man with a record of service and sacrifice that deserves respect.
While his service is commendable, the lens through which his nomination as defense secretary must
be considered needs to be both broader and more refined. Whether he is
the right person to lead the Defense Department should be determined by
his judgment, his fundamental view of America’s role in the world and
his assessment of the military required to support this role. After
carefully reviewing his record from this perspective, I am unable to
support his nomination.
Reuters:
- Bank of America(BAC) begins moving $50 billion of derivatives to UK: FT. Bank
of America has begun moving $50 billion of derivatives out of its
Irish-based operations into its British subsidiary, The Financial Times
reported on its website on Sunday. The move will allow the world's
number 10 bank by assets to benefit from tax breaks stemming from
accumulated losses in its UK business, the FT said. According to the Financial Times, bankers said Irish officials were uncomfortable with the scale of
the business which posed a theoretical risk to Irish taxpayers.
Financial Times:
- US regulators warn banks on living wills. US
regulators have warned banks not to assume that countries will work
together to avoid the catastrophic failure of a financial group. The alert to the world’s biggest international financial institutions
followed growing concerns about the progress of global regulatory
reform efforts.
Telegraph:
- David Cameron has one great ally: the people of Europe. Cherry-picking. Europe a la carte. And from Madrid, a finger-waving admonition
that "David Cameron must understand he cannot pretend to renegotiate
the treaties, and undo what we have done, or slow the speed of the EU
cruiser."
WirtschaftsWoche:
- Bundesbank
board member Andreas Dombret says the so-called Basel III capital rules
will go into effect in the EU in early 2014 at the latest. Dombret has
"no doubt" the U.S. will introduce the Basel III rules as well.
- Owners
of German medium-sized companies would face tax rates on profits of
more than 60% under plans by the opposition Social Democratic Party that
would go into effect after an election victory, citing calculations by
the DIHK industry and trade chamber umbrella organization. The top
income tax rate of the typical owner of a company with 200 employees,
with sales of EU40m per year and a profit of EU2m, would rise to more
than 60% from 47.5% at present, citing DIHK managing director Martin
Wansleben.
Welt am Sonntag:
- Greece has carried out some reforms, though not much has improved in the past 12 months, citing Bill Gross, co-chief investment
officer of PIMCO. Gross also said the euro crisis isn't over and warned
not to draw the wrong conclusions from calmer capital markets. Gross said countries are rushing to devalue their currencies and the situation reminds him of the 1930s.
- German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle says efforts shouldn't be made to keep the U.K. in the European Union by reducing the EU's legal rights, citing a commentary by Westerwelle.
Le Progres:
- French Unemployment Seen Rising to 11% by OFCE. France will have
about 250,000 additional unemployed by the end of this year, citing
economist Mathieu Plane at Sciences Po's research center OFCE. Economic
growth of 1.2% is required to reverse the unemployment trend; OFCE
predicts growth will be around 0%.
Kathimerini:
- European Central Bank Board member Joerg Asmussen said a default of Cyprus would risk a contagion of Greek banks, citing an interview. "We are still not in normal times, and therefore I think that disorderly developments in Cyprus could harm the progress we made in Europe in 2012. There are two kinds of effects that a bad development in Cyprus can produce. One is possible contagion of Greece via banking channels, since a number of Cypriot banks are active in Greece. Secondly, it can send the wrong signal to the rest of the euro area. We are in a phase where countries like Portugal and Ireland are preparing to re-enter capital markets:" Asmussen said. Asmussen also said that the central bank needs to "return to a situation in which the ECB can rely on its standard monetary policy instruments. We can take non-standard measures, but the extraordinary crisis policies should not become permanent."
Japan Times:
- Krugman’s worn-out ideas for Japan don’t fly. Abe’s big idea, the one that has investors feeling the most bullish
on Japan since 2009, is fiscal pump-priming and getting the Bank of
Japan to do more to stimulate growth. About 21 percent of respondents to
a Bloomberg poll now see Japan as offering the best opportunities over
the next year. The same poll showed 54 percent are more optimistic than
pessimistic about what some are calling Abenomics. Those numbers are hard to ignore on two scores. First, I only hope
that those in charge of managing my retirement accounts aren’t among the
Japan-bulls-come-lately. The second is how short memories can be. Abe,
remember, failed miserably in his first term as prime minister in
2006-2007.
Nikkei:
- Advantest(ATE) to Miss FY Op Profit Forecast. Advantest is getting few orders from Apple(AAPL) suppliers. Weak PC demand is cutting orders for DRAM test equipment. Chipmaker capital investment has reached a peak.
Financial News:
- China should adopt differentiated policies, such as when levying
property taxes, to control home price inflation in the largest cities,
according to a front-page commentary by reporter Xu Shaofeng. Rising
home prices in large cities may fuel inflation expectations. Bad loan
rates may increase if property prices fall following the bursting of a
real estate bubble, the commentary said.
Weekend Recommendations
Barron's:
- Bullish commentary on (AAPL), (UNP), (CPN), (TOL), (LH), (RHP) and (NUE).
- Bearish commentary on (ISRG), (LMT), (NOC), (RTN) and (GD).
Night Trading
- Asian indices are -.50% to +.75% on average.
- Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 105.5 -3.5 basis points.
- Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 84.25 -.75 basis point.
- NASDAQ 100 futures +.14%.
Morning Preview Links
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
- Durable Goods Orders for December are estimated to rise +2.0% versus a +.7% gain in November.
- Durables Ex Transports for December are estimated to rise +.8% versus a +1.6% gain in November.
- Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air for December are estimated to fall -1.0% versus a +2.7% gain in November.
10:00 am EST
- Pending Home Sales for December are estimated to rise +.1% versus a +1.7% gain in November.
10:30 am EST
- Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity for January is estimated to fall to 3.0 versus 6.8 in December.
Upcoming Splits
Other Potential Market Movers
- The Italian bond auction and the Australia Leading Indicators data could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by commodity and real estate shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.
