Style Underperformer:
Sector Underperformers:
- 1) Steel -2.07% 2) Gaming -2.01% 3) Software -1.73%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
- SNP, VRTU, NXPI, CYOU, BUD, SIMO, RCL, ANW, PT, TI, BAP, IRE, E, TOT, TV, SKYW, ADTN, BVN, WRLS, MCY, CPSI, HLF, INGR, VVI, FTE, SOHU, HTSI, NAP, PRO, PTR, EDW, DRIV, AV, UTEK, CODE, GCI and THO
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
- 1) RCL 2) ADM 3) YUM 4) EWG 5) HOV
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
- 1) NYT 2) CAB 3) TIF 4) MRK 5) BA
Charts:
Style Outperformer:
Sector Outperformers:
- 1) Networking +.91% 2) Education +.75% 3) Gold & Silver +.39%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
- APKT, PC, HMY, GOLD, BRO, CYBX, HUM, ALLT and DECK
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
- 1) MMR 2) APKT 3) HUM 4) UUP 5) CIM
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
- 1) UTX 2) UTHR 3) SOHU 4) TSN 5) CLX
Charts:
Weekend Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Euro Tremors Risk Market Respite on Spain-Italy, Banks. Europe’s political tremors risk spoiling the region’s market calm,
with corruption allegations buffeting Spanish Premier Mariano Rajoy and
Italy’s Silvio Berlusconi narrowing the front-runner’s lead as elections
loom. Rajoy, facing opposition calls to resign amid contested
reports about illegal payments, travels to Berlin today as euro- area
leaders schedule a flurry of meetings this week ahead of a Feb. 7-8
European Union summit. Last week’s nationalization of the Netherlands’
fourth-largest bank and a 2.17 billion-euro ($3 billion) loss at
Deutsche Bank AG underscore the fragile economic health in the region. “The
euro crisis is not over,” German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble
said Feb. 1 at the Munich Security Conference where fellow panelists
included Deutsche Bank AG co-Chief Executive Officer Anshu Jain. Still,
“we’re in a much better position than we were a year ago,” the minister
said. A sluggish economy, uncertainty over the outcome of this
month’s Italian election and Rajoy’s new troubles threaten to curtail
the time won by politicians with the central-bank bond buying.
- Spain’s Rajoy Fails to Quell Graft Criticism Amid Calls to Quit.
Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy’s assurance that allegations of
illegal payments are false failed to contain criticism, with the
opposition demanding he step down to restore faith in the political
class. “Rajoy should resign to make way for another prime minister who can re-establish the strength, credibility and
stability that Spain needs,” opposition leader Alfredo Perez Rubalcaba said during a televised press conference yesterday, a
day after Rajoy had faced the public and vowed to carry on.
“Spain needs a strong, credible, and trustworthy government.”
- Europe’s Banks Urged to Cut Down All Capital-Heavy Units. The president of the European Banking
Federation is urging lenders in the region to reinvent
themselves and discard the areas of their business that place
too large a capital burden on their balance sheets. “Banks need to be more efficient, that’s very simple,” EBF President Christian Clausen said in an interview in
Stockholm last week. “Everything that can be done will be done
in terms of moving business.”
- Netanyahu Says Israel Must Stop a Nuclear-Armed Iran. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, nominated to form a coalition after winning the most
Knesset seats in elections, said stopping Iran from building
nuclear arms would be the government’s foremost challenge. “We have many missions to deal with,” Netanyahu said in
Jerusalem after being chosen by President Shimon Peres. “But
first we must maintain security, and the first task is to stop
Iran from arming itself with nuclear weapons.”
- Hong Kong’s Debt Load Adds to Property Market Risks, HKMA Says. Hong Kong household debt levels close
to record highs pose a risk as officials seek to limit property
market overheating, said Norman Chan, the head of the city’s
central bank. Debt is “near historic high levels,” Chan, the chief
executive of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, told lawmakers
today, citing ratios of 58 percent to 59 percent of gross
domestic product in the third and fourth quarters. In a housing
and economic downturn, repayment may become more difficult, the
official said. Overheating in the housing market is the biggest risk to
financial stability, Chan said, echoing a warning in December
from the International Monetary Fund. Home prices have doubled
since the start of 2009, according to a weekly index compiled by
Centaline Property Agency Ltd.
- Fed’s Bullard Urges Cutting QE Pace if Data Stay Strong. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
President James Bullard said he expects U.S. growth to gain
enough momentum to let the central bank reduce the pace of asset
purchases as early as the middle of the year. “We should think about tapering or adjusting the
program,” Bullard said yesterday in an interview in Washington.
“If you get some good data for a couple of months, maybe you’d
say, ‘Okay, we go back to $75 billion per month instead of $85
billion or something like that.’”
- GM(GM) Plans 10-Weeks of Pickup Downtime as Inventories Rise. General
Motors Co. (GM), which saw pickup inventories rise 24 percent last
month, will take out 10 weeks of truck production as it prepares to
introduce a redesigned Chevrolet Silverado and GMC Sierra in the second
quarter. After finishing 2012 with a pickup inventory almost in line
with targets, GM yesterday reported that the number of trucks it has on
hand rose to a 117-day supply at the end of January from 80 a month
earlier. The 10 down weeks are a total for GM’s three pickup plants to
allow for the changeover, Jim Cain, a company
spokesman, said yesterday in a telephone interview.
Wall Street Journal:
- Reid Says New Tax Revenue Vital in a Budget Deal.
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid drew a red line in the budget
showdown with Republicans, saying Democrats will demand additional
revenue as part of any deal to alter
the mandatory spending cuts set to hit at the beginning of next month. The comments, made in an interview Sunday with ABC's "This Week," come
as Senate Democrats weigh options for averting at least some of the
March 1 cuts, known in Washington as the sequester. One Democratic
proposal would seek to offset some of the roughly $85 billion in cuts
this year with a combination of tax increases and spending cuts.
- Low Rates Force Companies to Pour Cash Into Pensions. Ford Motor Co.(F)
expects to spend $5 billion this year shoring up its pension funds,
almost as much as the auto maker spent last year building plants, buying
equipment and developing new cars. The nation's second-largest auto
maker is one of a who's who of U.S. companies pouring cash into pension
plans now being battered by record low interest rates. Verizon
Communications Inc.(VZ) contributed $1.7 billion to its pension plan in
the fourth quarter and—highlighting companies' sensitivity to this
issue—Boeing Co.(BA) now reports "core earnings" to separate out pension
expenses.
- Bondholders Have a New Worry: LBOs. Corporate-bond investors are facing a new threat: private-equity
firms launching debt-laden takeovers of companies in their portfolios. With buyouts back in vogue, fund managers specializing in highly rated,
or investment-grade, bonds have been scrambling to avoid companies that
might fall prey to private equity.
- Tech Titans Clash in 'Cloud'. Google Inc.(GOOG), Microsoft Corp.(MSFT) and Amazon.com Inc.(AMZN) have fought each other for dominance in mobile gadgets and Web
searches. The latest front in their war is invisible: computing
horsepower. Microsoft and Google are increasingly trying to unseat
Amazon in the lucrative business of renting out computing storage and
number-crunching to thousands of companies.
- Syria Rebels Blame Regime for Civilian Massacre. Syrian opposition activists and rebels said dozens of civilians were
killed and wounded on Sunday in a missile attack by regime forces
against a rebel-controlled neighborhood in the war-ravaged city of
Aleppo. Video footage posted by activists on the Internet and purported to be
of the attack's aftermath showed several residential buildings in a
neighborhood identified as Ansari reduced to heaps of rubble and
engulfed in smoke. Rescuers, many of them appearing to be rebel fighters by their dress
and weapons, could be seen on the video frantically pulling out the dead
and wounded, including children.
- U.K. to Give Regulators Powers to Split Up Banks.
U.K. Treasury chief George Osborne on Monday will announce new powers
for regulators to split up banks that flout rules designed to
ring-fence retail banking from riskier investment-banking activity. In a wide-ranging speech on banking in Bournemouth, England, Mr.
Osborne is expected to say the new powers are needed so that taxpayers
will never again be on the hook when banks fail, as they were during the
financial crisis.
Fox News:
CNBC:
- Gasoline at Highest Price Ever for This Time of Year. U.S.
drivers are now paying more to fill up their gas tanks than they ever
have at this time of year. The national average price of retail gasoline
posted its biggest one-day increase in 23 months on Friday, rising four
cents to $3.46 a gallon, according to AAA. The average price has risen
13 cents -- a 4 percent increase -- in the past week.
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider:
IBD:
Reuters:
Financial Times:
- Foxconn plans Chinese union vote. Foxconn, the contract manufacturer whose biggest customer is Apple, is
preparing genuinely representative labour union elections in its
factories in China for the first time, a powerful sign of the changes in
the workshop of the world demanded by an increasingly restive
workforce.
Telegraph:
MailOnline:
- Tory Party suffers backlash on plans to legalise gay marriage as members resign in mass protest. David Cameron is facing a backlash over his support for gay marriage from within his own party as members desert Tory ranks in droves, it emerged today. Large
numbers of activists are resigning or refusing to renew their
membership in protest at the Government's plans to equalise marriage,
MPs say. It is claimed those quitting range from a handful in some seats to dozens in others and more than a hundred in some.
WirtschaftsWoche:
- Germany in Talks to Send Nuclear Waste to U.S. The German government is negotiating with the American government to send radioactive waste to the U.S., citing a statement fro a German research ministry spokesperson.
Weekend Recommendations
Barron's:
- Bullish commentary on (WMT), (SNDK) and (GLF).
- Bearish commentary on (HES).
Night Trading
- Asian indices are -.25% to +.50% on average.
- Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 113.0 -2.0 basis points.
- Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 88.25 -1.75 basis points.
- NASDAQ 100 futures -.11%.
Morning Preview Links
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
Economic Releases
9:45 am EST
- ISM New York for January is estimated to fall to 52.0 versus 54.3 in December.
10:00 am EST
- Factory Orders for December are estimated to rise +2.3% versus unch. in November.
Upcoming Splits
Other Potential Market Movers
- The Eurozone PPI data, CBO budget review, China HSBC Services PMI and the RBA rate decision could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.
U.S. Week Ahead by Reuters (video).
Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.
Stocks to Watch Monday by MarketWatch.
Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.
BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly lower on global growth fears, China-Japan/Mideast tensions, rising
Eurozone debt angst, profit-taking, technical selling and more
shorting. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral
signals and the Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.
S&P 500 1,513.17 +.68%*
The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.
*5-Day Change
Indices
- Russell 2000 911.20 +.66%
- Value Line Geometric(broad market) 395.12 +.58%
- Russell 1000 Growth 693.07 +.63%
- Russell 1000 Value 768.98 +.65%
- Morgan Stanley Consumer 901.94 +1.34%
- Morgan Stanley Cyclical 1,123.23 -.25%
- Morgan Stanley Technology 728.41 -.59%
- Transports 5,857.23 -.22%
- Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 97.06 -.90%
- MSCI Emerging Markets 44.34 +.53%
- Lyxor L/S Equity Long Bias 1,117.21 +.38%
- Lyxor L/S Equity Variable Bias 828.93 +.56%
Sentiment/Internals
- NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 172,132 +.51%
- Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 416 -657
- Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 41.9 -16.3%
- CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 267,989 +8.9%
- CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,553,636 +4.1%
- ISE Sentiment 108.0 -32.1%
- Volatility(VIX) 12.90 +.08%
- S&P 500 Implied Correlation 60.42 -1.6%
- G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 8.82 -.1%
- Smart Money Flow Index 11,2989.41 -.17%
- Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.695 Trillion unch.
Futures Spot Prices
- Reformulated Gasoline 305.36 +5.79%
- Bloomberg Base Metals Index 219.66 +1.57%
- US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 349.33 USD/Ton unch.
- China Iron Ore Spot 153.20 USD/Ton +3.10%
- UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,600.13 +1.80%
Economy
- ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate 8.3% +110 basis points
- Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index .4991 -9.73%
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 112.85 +.29%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index -28.1 -26.1 points
- Fed Fund Futures imply 52.0% chance of no change, 48.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 3/20
- US Dollar Index 79.12 -.77%
- Yield Curve 175.0 +8 basis points
- 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.01% +6 basis points
- Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $2.991 Trillion -.09%
- U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 42.50 +.24%
- Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 161.0 -.79%
- Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 102.37 +3.75%
- Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 171.86 +8.73%
- Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 127.76 +6.18%
- Iraq Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 506.25 +7.57%
- China Blended Corporate Spread Index 389.0 +10 basis points
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.57% +5 basis points
- 2-Year Swap Spread 16.25 unch.
- 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -14.25 -1.5 basis points
- N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 86.82 +2.14%
- European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 145.40 +6.82%
- Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 227.10 +6.62%
- CMBS Super Senior AAA 10-Year Treasury Spread 90.0 unch.
- M1 Money Supply $2.471 Trillion +.61%
- Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,124.90 -.10%
- 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 352,000 +200
- Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 2.5% unch.
- Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.53% +11 basis points
- Weekly Mortgage Applications 822.10 -8.1%
- Bloomberg Consumer Comfort -37.5 -1.1 points
- Weekly Retail Sales +1.9% unch.
- Nationwide Gas $3.46/gallon +.13/gallon
- Baltic Dry Index 750.0 -6.01%
- China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,142.40 +.89%
- Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 20.0 unch.
- Rail Freight Carloads 238,789 -4.25%
Best Performing Style
Worst Performing Style
Leading Sectors
- I-Banks +3.8%
- Energy +2.9%
- Steel +2.5%
- Oil Service +2.3%
- Telecom +1.4%
Lagging Sectors
- Networking -2.1%
- Coal -2.5%
- Computer Hardware -2.7%
- Defense -2.7%
- Disk Drives -5.0%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (30)
- FURX, WMS, MGAM, FSL, ADNC, UIS, HES, CIA, PFMT, GK, FTNT, VCBI,
ALGN, IIIN, ABAX, ENDP, JDSU, MAN, EVR, CPRT, TSCO, FIVE, AVY, DHI, CRR,
MANH, CXS, NLNK, RHI and STAN
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (30)
- LMT, PII, AMZN, INGR, BCO, KLIC, CBF, CNQR, ASH, PETM, AVB, WBSN,
NOW, NEU, HAR, NTGR, TWC, CODE, CPSI, JOSB, EXPO, MW, CEVA, CBT, STZ,
LXK, RDEN, VMW, LQDT and LTM
Weekly Charts
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change
