Thursday, April 25, 2013

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
  • Spain Jobless Rate Breaches 27% to Highest in 37 Years on Recession WoesSpanish unemployment rose more than economists forecast in the first quarter to the highest in at least 37 years as efforts to tackle the European Union’s biggest budget deficit crimped economic growth. The number of jobless increased to more than 6 million for the first time, climbing to 27.2 percent of the workforce, compared with 26.02 percent in the previous three months, the National Statistics Institute in Madrid said today. That was more than the 26.5 percent median forecast of eight economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy will tomorrow unveil measures aimed at halting a six-year economic slump. Spain’s recession dragged into a seventh quarter in the first three months of 2013, leaving the country with more than a fifth of all jobless people in the EU. “The pace of the increase is surprising given we were supposed to be in a softer phase of the recession,” Ricardo Santos, a euro region economist at BNP Paribas SA in London, said in a telephone interview. “We could now end the year at 28 percent unemployment and we may see a downward revision of first-quarter growth.” 
  • French Joblessness Climbs to Record, Adding Pressure on Hollande. French jobless claims rose to the highest ever, increasing pressure on President Francois Hollande to revive an economy that has been stalled for two years. The number of people actively looking for work increased by 36,900, or 1.2 percent, to 3.225 million, the labor ministry said today in an e-mailed statement. Economists expected an increase of 25,000, according to the median of three forecasts gathered by Bloomberg News. The 23rd monthly increase takes the total number of jobseekers past the previous record of 3.195 million, which was set in January 1997 when Jacques Chirac had been president for less than two years.
  • Gold Rises Most Since September as Central Banks Join Buyers. Gold climbed the most since September on central-bank buying and signs of more investor demand following last week’s biggest drop in three decades. Gold futures for June delivery jumped 2.2 percent to $1,454.50 an ounce at 10:38 a.m. on the Comex in New York, heading for the biggest gain since Sept. 13. On April 15, the metal slumped 9.3 percent, the most since March 1980. 
  • Grain Ships Have Biggest Fall This Year as Cargo Demand Slows. Rates for dry bulk carriers hauling grains and minerals fell the most in a single session this year as demand for cargoes slowed. Day rates for Panamaxes, 750-foot-long ships capable of hauling about 75,000 metric tons of cargo, slid 3.8 percent to $8,955, the most since Dec. 20, according to the Baltic Exchange in London, which publishes shipping prices on more than 50 maritime routes. Today’s decrease, the third in a row, means costs plunged to the lowest since April 12, exchange data show. Rates for grain-carrying Panamaxes declined 6.7 percent over the last three sessions.
  • Iran Told Hezbollah to Join Syria War, Says Group Ex-Leader. Iran pressed Hezbollah fighters to join the civil war in Syria to bolster President Bashar al- Assad’s armed struggle, according to Sobhi al-Tofaili, a disaffected former leader of the militant group. The allegation, made on Lebanon’s Future Television, echoes similar comments by George Sabra, interim leader of the Syrian National Coalition, at a press conference in Turkey on April 22. The former Hezbollah secretary said that at least 138 militiamen had died in Syria and scores had been wounded.
Wall Street Journal:
Fox News:
  • Lawmakers demand 'action' in Syria after intel confirms chemical weapons use. Top-ranking lawmakers on both sides of the aisle declared Thursday that the "red line" in Syria has been crossed, calling for "strong" U.S. and international intervention after administration officials revealed the intelligence community believes chemical weapons were used. Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., and Sen. Dianne Feinstein, D-Calif., chairwoman of the Senate intelligence committee, were among those urging swift action. 
  • Boston Marathon bombers' next target was Times Square, says Bloomberg. DEVELOPING: The Boston Marathon bombing suspects had Times Square in their sights before law enforcement authorities put an end to their bloody terror spree, according New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg. "New York was next on their list of targets," Bloomberg said of brothers Tamerlan and Dzhokhar Tsarnaev. Bloomberg said he received confirmation of the chilling second phaseof their plot from the FBI. “The fact is, New York City remains a prime target for those who hate America and want to kill Americans.”
MarketWatch: 
CNBC:
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider:
Reuters:
  • 3M(MMM) cuts 2013 outlook on falling electronics demand. Diversified U.S. manufacturer 3M Co cut its 2013 profit forecast on Thursday, citing weakening demand for flat-panel televisions as well as the stronger U.S. dollar. The lowered outlook came after first-quarter profit and revenue both missed Wall Street expectations.
  • Brazil's central bank signals interest rate hikes ahead. All the members of the Brazilian central bank's board agree on the need to raise interest rates to fight naggingly high inflation, but lingering worries about the global economy could limit the scope of the tightening cycle. In the minutes from its most recent rate-setting meeting released on Thursday, the central bank warned that monetary policy must remain "especially vigilant" and signaled that it will look to administer rate hikes cautiously to avoid tripping up the tepid economic recovery under way in Brazil.
  • COLUMN-Market euphoria misreads the signals from Brussels and Rome: Kaletsky.
  • Watchmakers fret over China sales slump. Luxury watchmakers expect sales growth to slow this year as a recovery in the United States and buoyant Middle East demand fail to offset a China slump more deep-rooted than a temporary blip caused by anti-corruption moves. The heads of Swatch Group's biggest brand Omega and LVMH flagship brand TAG Heuer as well as high-end independents Patek Philippe and Ulysse Nardin all said demand in Greater China had tumbled, particularly for high-end models.
USA Today:
The Guardian:
  • Crisis for Europe as trust hits record low. Poll in European Union's six biggest countries finds Euroscepticism is soaring amid bailouts and spending cuts. "The damage is so deep that it does not matter whether you come from a creditor, debtor country, euro would-be member or the UK: everybody is worse off," said José Ignacio Torreblanca, head of the ECFR's Madrid office. "Citizens now think that their national democracy is being subverted by the way the euro crisis is conducted." The most dramatic fall in faith in the EU has occurred in Spain, where the banking and housing market collapse, eurozone bailout and runaway unemployment have combined to produce 72% "tending not to trust" the EU, with only 20% "tending to trust".

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
  • Large-Cap Value +.73%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Papers -.48% 2) Drugs -.12% 3) REITs -.04%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
  • CAP, VPFG, CRR, INTU, PLD, RJF, QCOM, CLW, CTXS, BLL, SWY, VAR, ARII, UFS, VCI, PRLB, OIS, MMM, RS, TSCO, MLNX, QLIK, KEP, HLIT and VIP
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) DNDN 2) SWY 3) HRB 4) WM 5) LGF
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) INTU 2) TILE 3) CFR 4) SWK 5) D
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
  • Mid-Cap Growth +1.12%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Education +4.84% 2) Disk Drives +3.62% 3) Steel +3.02%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • INFN, NXST, NIHD, TVL, COG, SYMM, RNDY, OTEX, STMP, ANGI, CRI, FIO, MEOH, BYI, LTM, JAH, AKAM, NOW, CAB, CAKE, FFIV, CLF, RCL, CLGX, TER, RRD, EQT, ALXN, RYL, CDNS, SCI, BG, BC, LRCX, LKQ, KKR, WDC, WDAY, CCI, PHM, LPS, LEA, BYD, BIIB, WLT and FRAN
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) RVBD 2) PXP 3) FIO 4) LRCX 5) RCL
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) WLP 2) KNX 3) WM 4) JNJ 5) UPS
Charts:

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg: 
  • Italy Led by Letta Brings Berlusconi Back to Governing as Winner. Silvio Berlusconi, the three-time prime minister and two-time convicted lawbreaker, won a path back to power in Italy by outmaneuvering rivals during an eight- week political stalemate. A year and a half after resigning in near-disgrace, the 76- year-old billionaire became the key figure in talks to form the next Cabinet after Enrico Letta of the Democratic Party was appointed prime minister yesterday. Berlusconi and his 241 lawmakers, the second-biggest contingent, hold the votes Letta, 46, needs to secure a parliamentary majority. “Silvio Berlusconi is the real winner,” Nichi Vendola, an opponent and head of the Left, Ecology and Freedom party, said April 20 after the owner of broadcaster Mediaset SpA (MS) laid the groundwork to be part of the governing alliance. 
  • Slovenian Banks Need $1.2 Billion by July 31, May Require More. Slovenian banks including Nova Ljubljanska Banka d.d and Nova Kreditna Banka Maribor d.d. will need a capital injection of at least 900 million euros ($1.2 billion) by the end of July as the government works to fix the banking industry without seeking outside aid. The government of Prime Minister Alenka Bratusek, in power for five weeks, included a list of priorities in a draft document posted yesterday on the website of the parliament in Ljubljana. It said the plan will be sent to European officials by May 9.
  • Renault First-Quarter Revenue Falls 12% on European Drop. Renault SA (RNO), France’s second-biggest carmaker, said first-quarter revenue fell 12 percent as an intensifying car-market contraction in Europe that’s now in its sixth year overwhelmed delivery growth outside the region. Sales dropped to 8.27 billion euros ($10.7 billion) from a restated 9.37 billion euros a year earlier, the Boulogne- Billancourt, France-based company said yesterday in a statement. Revenue was less than the 8.57 billion-euro average of 11 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Renault and larger competitor PSA Peugeot Citroen (UG) cut their forecasts for industrywide European car sales in 2013 as a recession in the 17 countries that use the euro pushed the automotive market in Europe to a two-decade low.
  • Mutant Bird Flu Virus Evolves to Show Pandemic Characteristics. A mutant version of a bird flu virus created by scientists last year to show its ability to spread between humans evolved to show characteristics of previous pandemic viruses, a study found. A genetic component of the mutant H5N1 virus developed a 200-fold preference for binding with human over avian receptors, according to a study led by researchers at the MRC National Institute for Medical Research in London. Their paper was published today in the scientific journal Nature.
  • China Stocks Fall for 3rd Time in Four Days as Volatility Rises. China’s stocks fell for the third time in four days, led by banks and developers, as a gauge of price swings on the benchmark index rose to a one-year high. Industrial Bank Co. sank 1.9 percent, while Poly Real Estate Group Co. (600048) fell to a two-week low, leading a 1 percent slump in the CSI 300 Financials Index. Jiangsu Yueda Investment Co. posted the third-biggest decline in the Shanghai Composite (SHCOMP) Index after first-quarter profit fell. “Investors are still very concerned about the economy after the slew of bad data recently,” Deng Wenyuan, an analyst at Soochow Securities Co., said by phone from Suzhou, near Shanghai. “Financials and property stocks get affected the most because they take up a large percentage of the index and they are cyclical stocks, which don’t do well when economic growth is slowing.” The Shanghai Composite slumped 8.9 percent from a Feb. 6 high to yesterday on concern slowing growth will hurt earnings.
  • Risk of Miscalculation Over North Korea Has Grown, Dempsey Says. The risk of a miscalculation in the dispute over North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs has increased, and China takes the tensions “very seriously,” the chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff said yesterday. North Korea is “in a period of prolonged provocation rather than cyclical provocation,” Martin Dempsey told reporters yesterday after arriving in Beijing April 21 and meeting officials including President Xi Jinping. 
  • Rebar Trades Near Lowest in Four Months as Iron Ore Declines. Steel reinforcement-bar futures in Shanghai traded near the lowest level in more than four months, as ironore prices retreated to the lowest since March 21 and high output weighed on the market. The contract for October delivery on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell as much as 0.6 percent to 3,625 yuan ($587) a metric ton and was at 3,632 yuan at 10:09 a.m. local time. Futures touched 3,578 yuan yesterday, the lowest since Dec. 5. Spot iron ore at Tianjin port fell 1 percent to $135.10 a dry ton yesterday, Steel Index Ltd. data show. The China Iron and Steel Association will release its production estimate tomorrow for the mid-April period. Output should have increased, Dang Man, an analyst at Maike Futures Co., said by phone from Xi’an today. “The market is still quite bearish given the high output and declining raw-material prices,” Dang said. “Futures could test the 3,500 yuan support level in the next few days.”
  • Zinc Falls as Base Metals Slip Amid Weak Economic Data in China. Zinc led declines in base metals in London as signs of slowing economic growth in China added to concerns that demand for industrial metals will decline. Aluminum and lead also slipped, while copper and nickel were little changed. Zinc for delivery in three months on the London Metal Exchange dropped 0.6 percent to $1,907 a metric ton at 11:09 a.m. Seoul time. Copper dropped as much as 0.7 percent to $6,982.75 and swung between losses and gains before trading little changed.
  • Paulson to Start Second Real Estate Fund After Decline in Assets. Billionaire John Paulson is starting another private-equity fund to invest in real estate, marking the second time this month that his money-management firm has revealed plans to raise additional assets. Paulson & Co., which is based in New York, will seek capital for Paulson Real Estate Fund II LP as well as an offshore affiliate, according to a private-placement notice it filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on April 22. The funds haven’t begun taking money from clients, according to the filing. The investment firm’s assets under management have declined to $18 billion from a peak of about $38 billion in early 2011 after money-losing bets tied to gold, the European sovereign- debt crisis and the U.S. economy. 
Wall Street Journal:  
  • Bomb Suspect Was Put on Two Watch Lists. CIA, FBI Flagged Him for Concern, Raising New Questions About Missed Opportunities to Prevent Fatal Boston Attack. U.S. authorities put alleged Boston bomber Tamerlan Tsarnaev on two separate watch lists in 2011 after Russian security agencies twice reached out to their American counterparts, raising new questions about missed opportunities to prevent the attack. Russian officials contacted the Federal Bureau of Investigation in March 2011, then reached out to the Central Intelligence Agency in September of that year, citing concerns Mr. Tsarnaev might have been associating with extremists, according to U.S. officials.
  • Wheels Are Falling Off the Commodities Supercycle. Two things underpinned the upswing in industrial commodities. First, low prices discouraged investment in new oil fields and mines through most of the 1980s and 1990s. Second, demand in emerging markets, especially China, jumped. Neither factor will hold this decade in the way they did during the last.
  • CFTC's Chilton Says Staff Eyeing Trading After Hoax. Commodity Futures Trading Commissioner Bart Chilton said agency officials are looking into trading that took place after the Tuesday Twitter hoax that sent markets careening sharply lower in a matter of minutes. Mr. Chilton, a Democrat, told The Wall Street Journal that the CFTC is looking into the trading of 28 heavily traded futures contracts during a five-minute period after a false tweet from the Associated Press's Twitter feed said there were two explosions at the White House and President Barack Obama was injured. A group identifying itself as the Syrian Electronic Army claimed responsibility for the fake tweet.  
  • European Bonds Are Defying Gravity. "The markets are overestimating the capacity of the European Central Bank to intervene in case of need," said Roberto Perotti, an economist at Bocconi University in Milan. He argues that Italy is essentially too big to save, even by the ECB, if it ran seriously aground. And Italy's weak economy raises its risk: Without economic growth, it is difficult to contain Italy's huge public debt—the second-largest as a proportion of GDP in the euro zone, after Greece. Moreover, restarting economic growth will be a significant challenge. Low rates from the central bank—the ECB's main interest rate is 0.75%, and many analysts now expect a cut as soon as next week—haven't effectively percolated down to small businesses and consumers in Italy or Spain. "On our reckoning, liquidity conditions in the euro zone are as poor as they've been at any time in the past four or five years," said Mike Howell of CrossBorder Capital, a London research firm that tracks money flows.
MarketWatch.com:
CNBC: 
  • Why Are Japanese Still Dumping Foreign Bonds? There are great expectations that Japanese companies flooded with liquidity will pour some of it into foreign bond markets, but latest capital flow data published on Thursday tell a different story. Japanese institutions were net sellers of foreign bonds for a sixth straight week, selling 862.6 billion yen ($8.7 billion) in overseas debt for the week ended April 20, according to weekly data from the Ministry of Finance, more than double the net 331.9 billion in the previous week.
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider:
LA Times:
  • Multiple explosions, fires reported on barges near Mobile, Ala. Three people were hurt in multiple explosions aboard two fuel barges in the Mobile River in Alabama on Wednesday night, according to the Mobile Fire Department. The department said the three victims were taken to a hospital. The Coast Guard said they had been burned, and their conditions were unknown. The fire department said the barges experienced four blasts, with the first reported about 9 p.m. The incident occurred in the vicinity of the Carnival Triumph, the cruise ship that lost power in the Gulf of Mexico and later broke loose of its moorings at a Mobile shipyard.
Politico:
  • Lawmakers, aides may get Obamacare exemption. Congressional leaders in both parties are engaged in high-level, confidential talks about exempting lawmakers and Capitol Hill aides from the insurance exchanges they are mandated to join as part of President Barack Obama’s health care overhaul, sources in both parties said. The talks — which involve Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.), House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio), the Obama administration and other top lawmakers — are extraordinarily sensitive, with both sides acutely aware of the potential for political fallout from giving carve-outs from the hugely controversial law to 535 lawmakers and thousands of their aides. Discussions have stretched out for months, sources said. A source close to the talks says: “Everyone has to hold hands on this and jump, or nothing is going to get done.” Yet if Capitol Hill leaders move forward with the plan, they risk being dubbed hypocrites by their political rivals and the American public. By removing themselves from a key Obamacare component, lawmakers and aides would be held to a different standard than the people who put them in office.
AP:
  • South Korea warns of 'grave measure' if North Korea rejects talks on shuttered factory. South Korea on Thursday warned of an unspecified "grave measure" if North Korea rejects a call for talks on a jointly run factory park that has been closed for nearly a month. In a televised briefing with reporters, Unification Ministry spokesman Kim Hyung-suk refused to describe what Seoul would do if Pyongyang doesn't respond by a deadline Friday to a demand for formal working-level talks on the industrial complex just over the heavily armed border in the North Korean town of Kaesong. But Seoul may be signaling it will pull out its remaining workers from the factory across the border in Kaesong. That could lead to the end of a complex considered the last remaining symbol of inter-Korean cooperation.
Reuters:
  • GM(GM) sees April U.S. new-car sales rising at similar rate to March. General Motors Co Chief Executive Dan Akerson said he sees the U.S. auto industry's new-vehicle sales in April rising at a similar rate as the previous month, when they increased 3.4 percent. Akerson said he was especially worried about weak consumer confidence. Worries about a possible slowdown in the U.S. economy were underlined on Wednesday after orders in March for long-lasting manufactured goods recorded their biggest drop in seven months. The Commerce Department said U.S. durable goods orders slumped 5.7 percent as demand fell across the board for these goods -- items from toasters to aircraft that are meant to last three years or more. The decline followed a 4.3 percent increase in February and was double what economists had expected. Akerson also said that Europe, where the U.S. automaker does not expect to return to profitability before 2015, remains weak. He pointed to the loss reported on Wednesday in that region by U.S. rival Ford Motor Co.
  • Qualcomm's(QCOM) earnings outlook points to competition in Asia. Leading mobile chipmaker Qualcomm forecast earnings below expectations on Wednesday as competition in smartphones intensifies and shifts toward Asia, and its stock fell sharply. San Diego-based Qualcomm is benefiting from strong demand for smartphones and a shift by network operators worldwide to a high-speed wireless technology known as long-term evolution (LTE), where the chipmaker is ahead of rivals. But the market potential is attracting growing competition from smaller rivals eager to expand their mobile presence in Asia and other developing regions.
Financial Times:
  • JPMorgan(JPM) under pressure in Basel spat. Leading European companies have accused JPMorgan Chase and other US banks of putting their own interests ahead of their clients in a spat over tough new bank capital rules for derivatives sold privately off exchanges.
  • Europe’s ills cannot be healed by monetary innovation alone. Governments and companies must introduce structural reforms, says Yves Mersch. The eurozone faces a triple problem: stretched states, fragile banks and shrinking economies. If addressed properly, we can make a virtuous cycle that will help with all three. If managed poorly, however, they could descend into a vicious cycle. Governments and banks are now linked. States that had to recapitalise impaired domestic banks have taken on extra debt. Conversely, sound banks have been affected by the weakness of their home governments. The effect has been to lower the credit ratings of both banks and sovereigns. Combined with the need to deleverage and the freezing of money markets, there is now less international lending through financial markets and the flow of credit is hampered.
Der Standard:
  • ECB monetary policy in "challenging situation" amid inflation differentials across euro area and ECB used unconventional steps to curtail monetary conditions drifting apart, ECB Executive Board member Benoit Coeure is quoted as saying. Euro area countries need to pursue structural reforms, improve guidance. Case of Cyprus has shown that taxpayers won't have to pay for mistakes made by banks, he said. "Bail in" rescue is "right and important" concept that is internationally accepted.
Yomiuri:
  • Farmers in Japan's Fukushima will begin trial farming in 10 restricted zones affected by the 2011 earthqake, tsunami and nuclear disasters, citing the prefecture's horticultural bureau.
Evening Recommendations 
  • None of note
Night Trading
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 111.50 +.5 basis point.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 90.0 +.75 basis point.
  • FTSE-100 futures +.04%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.08%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.15%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate
  • (SWY)/.35
  • (DOW)/.61
  • (PH)/1.67
  • (SWK)/.96
  • (CELG)/1.35
  • (ESI)/1.26
  • (BIIB)/1.63
  • (HOG)/.99
  • (BSX)/.09
  • (LLL)/1.93
  • (COP)/1.42
  • (TWC)/1.37
  • (PHM)/.15
  • (HSY)/1.04
  • (OXY)/1.54
  • (LEA)/1.10
  • (XOM)/2.04
  • (RCL)/.19
  • (DO)/1.16
  • (PTEN)/.36
  • (CRI)/.69
  • (LUV)/.02
  • (BG)/.91
  • (ALXN)/.60
  • (ABC)/.88
  • (RTN)/1.28
  • (MO)/.53
  • (CL)/1.32
  • (ZMH)/1.40
  • (MMM)/1.65
  • (BMY)/.41
  • (UPS)/1.00
  • (CBG)/.17
  • (ALTR)/.33
  • (KLAC)/.85
  • (EMN)/1.57
  • (SBUX)/.48         
  • (IGT)/.29
  • (AMZN)/.10
  • (WYNN)/1.55
  • (CB)/1.74
  • (CERN)/.63
  • (EXPE)/.23
  • (DECK)/-.10 
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • Initial Jobless Claims are estimated to fall to 350K versus 352K the prior week.
  • Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 3060K versus 3068K prior. 
11:00 am EST
  • The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for April is estimated to rise to -1.0 versus -5.0 in March. 
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Spanish Unemployment report, UK gdp report, 7Y T-Note auction, Japanese CPI, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report and the weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by commodity and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Wednesday, April 24, 2013

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Earnings, Short-Covering, Commodity/Financial Sector Strength

Broad Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • VIX 13.52 +.30%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 128.0 +30.61%
  • Total Put/Call .80 -10.11%
  • NYSE Arms .83 -12.72%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 80.02 -.82%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 158.0 +.36%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 97.96 +.29%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 234.43 +.24%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 13.0 -.5 bp
  • TED Spread 23.0 unch.
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -17.5 +.25 bp
Economic Gauges:
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .05% unch.
  • Yield Curve 147.0 unch.
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $135.10/Metric Tonne -.95%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -7.90 -3.0 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.38 +1 basis point
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei Futures: Indicating +130 open in Japan
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +12 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my retail and tech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then covered some of them
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg: 
  • German Ifo Sentiment Fell After Winter Chilled Recovery: Economy. German business confidence fell for a second month in April after winter weather hindered the recovery in Europe’s largest economy, adding to signs that the European Central Bank may cut interest rates. The Ifo institute in Munich said its business climate index, based on a survey of 7,000 executives, dropped to 104.4 from 106.7 in March. Economists in a Bloomberg News survey forecast a decline to 106.2, according to the median of 44 estimates. 
  • Pimco Reduced Its Holdings of Spanish, Italian Bonds, Balls Says. Pacific Investment Management Co. cut its holdings of Spanish and Italian government debt starting last month after a rally in the securities, according toAndrew Balls, the London-based head of European portfolio management. “We’ve been reducing credit risk in our portfolios and in recent weeks we’ve cut Italy and Spain,” Balls said today in a telephone interview. “It’s a function of levels and fundamentals. The spreads look reasonable but not as attractive as they were.”
  • Bird Flu Strain Spreads as Taiwan Reports First H7N9 Infection. Taiwan confirmed an H7N9 bird flu infection in a traveler returning to the island from China, the first incidence of the killer virus spreading outside the mainland. A 53-year-old Taiwanese man tested positive for the latest strain of avian flu after a business trip to the eastern city of Suzhou and returning to Taiwan via Shanghai, Minister of Health Chiu Wen-ta said at a briefing in Taipei yesterday. The patient, who is in critical condition in an isolation room, didn’t come into contact with birds and poultry, Chiu said. The first discovery of the virus outside China, 10 years after an outbreak of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, or SARS, may lead to increased scrutiny of travelers into and out of the country.
  • Chinese Contracts Reach Four-Year High as Economy Slows: Options. The cost of hedging against swings in Chinese equities has risen to the highest level in almost four years relative to other emerging markets on signs the world's second-largest economy is losing momentum. The difference in implied volatility for the iShares FTSE China 25 Index Fund and the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index Fund has more than doubled to 5.12 since Feb., based on data compiled by Bloomberg on three-month contracts with an exercise price closest to the shares. That's the biggest gap since August 2009 for the measure of options costs.
  • LG Electronics Profit Plunges 91% Amid Stagnant TV Demand. LG Electronics Inc. (066570), the world’s second-largest television maker, posted a 91 percent drop in first-quarter profit as a stagnant market hurt TV sales. The shares fell.
  • Jones Group to Close 170 Stores While Trimming 8% of Workforce. Jones Group Inc. (JNY), the owner of the Jones New York, Nine West and Anne Klein fashion brands, will close 170 stores and cut 8 percent of its workforce after first- quarter profit trailed analysts’ estimates.
  • Senate Will Pass Online Tax Bill This Week, Reid Says. The U.S. Senate will pass a bill this week that will let states collect sales taxes from retailers outside their borders, said Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid. Reid, a Nevada Democrat, blamed a “handful” of senators for delaying a final vote on the measure, which attracted 74 supporters on a procedural vote April 22.
Wall Street Journal: 
Fox News: 
MarketWatch:
CNBC:
Zero Hedge: 
Business Insider: 
Reuters: 
CNN:
Telegraph:
Australia Network News: 
  • 21 people killed in social unrest in China's Xinjiang. Clashes in China's western region of Xinjiang have left 21 people dead, including police officers and social workers, a provincial government official said. Gun fights broke out in Bachu county after police went to search the home of locals suspected of possessing illegal knives, a report on government-run news website Tianshan Net said. The report said 15 of those killed were either police or social workers, including 11 members of China's Uighur ethnic minority, who live mainly in Xinjiang. A further six "gang members" were reportedly shot dead in the violence, while eight more were arrested. A provincial government official said these people were Uighurs but did not confirm their identity. The report said an investigation showed the gang members had been plotting to carry out "terrorist activities", and branded the fighting a "violent terror incident".